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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 04 2012 11:05 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't understand how I'm playing bad. I've stuck with my role claim and pointed out all the logical fallacies Gummy is using to try and discredit me. You really don't know what a logical fallacy is. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
Day 2 DeMorcerf the vanilla townie was found dead | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
please enlighten me mr gumball. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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Gummy
United States2180 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
On May 04 2012 13:06 Gummy wrote: Very revelatory of how much of this thread you actually read. in after you shoot yourself in the foot. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
But killing demorcerf instead of any of the direct claims does seem weird. And it certainly has some implications but id like to think them over before i post something that isnt ready. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
Killing the detective is sooooo much more important than the medic. DId i say sooooo? I meant unbelievably more important, especially in small games. He could easily get away with shooting one of the medic claims. But im still not entirely confident in my analysis. I have some hurdles in my head to overcome since im used to the medic not being able to target the same person twice in a row which makes for a very different game. Some of my assumptions may be flawed but ill try to keep it clear. | ||
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Clawtrocity
United States21 Posts
I healed Firm last night because after all that I tried to make them think I was WIFOM'ing Firm and going to heal Gummy. They'll stay away from this triangle of people for as long as possible. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: I propose that we let Gummy, Claw, and Tofu live into the first night. He is supportive of the survival of these three people currently in the spotlight. Therefore, we can assume that none of these three people would have had the motive to kill him. Essentially, these three people are less likely to be mafia. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: dahdum, at the moment, is Town-ish. His posts have echoed some of my own thought processes, so for the time being I'll overlook his low amount of posts. dahdum also has no motive to kill DeMorcerf because DeMorcerf was supportive of him. This makes him an unlikely mafia suspect, for now. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Matriarch has failed to post enough actual content for me to place any trust in her yet. Matriarch remains a suspect because DeMorcerf remained neutral on her. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Ange seems very inexperienced but at the same time his/her second post bothers me: ... Ange seems like a very likely suspect for mafia. She was actively criticized by DeMorcef and seems to be the person who would gain the most from his death. It's hard to be sure, but that's where we stand as of now. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: Aces thought that if Claw and Tofu were as claimed it would a dream scenario for the town with Tofu's plan, which makes no sense because I still fail to see how any player imagines that somehow they would live forever in that scenario. Why does Aces beg us to "please believe that he is vanilla townie and not scummy"? Another great suspect for mafia. He was called out by DeMorcerf for scummy behavior and DeMorcef died last night. He also has a motive to eliminate this threat. On May 03 2012 05:17 DeMorcerf wrote: paschl spams at the start, claims townie, then claims he never claimed townie or a role. Well into his spam just posts "This is gonna be fun", great more spam. Fails to thoroughly read the rules and setup. Has posted a few unnecessary lists and then voted for dahdum for not posting much in his opinion (in comparison to paschl and Gummy, everyone is a mime). I'm willing to give paschl the benefit of the doubt here. While I did agree that he seemed a bit spammy and didn't read the rules carefully, I attribute this to his relative noobiness at the game. Although he did have some incentive to kill DeMorcerf, I don't think it was sufficient to warrant a hit on him. To round up this post, I will reveal who I checked last night. Matriarch appears to be Town. My List of Suspects(Most Suspect to Least Suspect): 1) Aces 2) Ange 3) Clawtrocity 4) Gummy 5) paschl 6) dahdum 7) Matriarch (Town) Let's hear your defense, Aces and Ange! | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
i just signed up for the newbie game because my regular forum is down and since i have played <3 games on TL i thought id see how different the games here are to what im used to. and im not sure how much help the analysis you did will bring us. the most important thing for the mafia is killing blue roles. killing someone just for what they said about you on day 1 is a really, really, exceptionally bad play. especially since nobody had been peeked at the time. | ||
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FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 04 2012 15:49 paschl wrote: fwiw, and i know this is my ego talking but i cant stop it, ive played >50 mafia games over the last 2 years. thats not counting turbos. i just signed up for the newbie game because my regular forum is down and since i have played <3 games on TL i thought id see how different the games here are to what im used to. and im not sure how much help the analysis you did will bring us. the most important thing for the mafia is killing blue roles. killing someone just for what they said about you on day 1 is a really, really, exceptionally bad play. especially since nobody had been peeked at the time. Some evidence is always better than no evidence. Here's an analogy for ya. You have a multiple choice test in front of you. There are four choices and you're petty much stumped. You realize one answer is obviously incorrect Do you: a) Make an educated guess by choosing between the other three choices at random? or b) Not attempt to answer the question? I'd say a) is the obvious answer. That's essentially what I've done here for you. I've narrowed down the list of suspects so that the likelihood of hitting mafia rises. It's the best I can do for now. Unless you have any better ideas, I suggest we go with this. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
just think it through like youre scum. you need to kill the blue roles, especially the cop. every day you dont kill them cop someone will be peeked. say the cop randomly picks his target you have a 2/9 chance of half your team being revealed. and if nobody from your team gets peeked youre still in a bad spot because there is one more clear towny. so considering there were 3 claims yesterday the mafia has to think through their options. kill one of the claimed blues? youre probably out of the question since a medic will likely heal you whether youre the real cop or not. shooting a medic gets more complicated since we have 2 claims and if one of those is a scum they will have a hard time shooting the other one since it puts them into a bad light. now lets say that there even is the slightest doubt that youre not the real cop the mafia will go and shoot who they think is the best player and hope he is medic. or they look for someone awkwardly responding to your claim and shoot him. or for any other tiny clue that gives them reason to believe he might be the cop. im trying to say that the mafia shouldnt just kill him because of what he said. and they probably didnt. he was a clear-ish player that made good posts. this singlehandedly is more of a reason to kill him than any of his posts alone. another reason not to aim at the medic would be that Gummy/Claw are v/v and the mafia wants to go for easy mislynches. since if their t/t any way one flips after he gets lynched will probably get the other lynched too. theres a lot of stuff to keep in mind here and tbh its 9am and i havent slept yet. im not saying my reasons are perfect, nor am i saying yours are dumb. i just want to find scum. | ||
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paschl
Germany666 Posts
i just realised that in the setups i posted on page5 every mafiateam had a roleblocker. this kinda changes everything. uargh... i need more coffee. | ||
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