| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Ange777
Germany1164 Posts
I still believe that no lynch won't do us any good. As of now I am leaning towards voting on Claw. Gummys tactic is simply suicidal if Claw flips and doesn't turn out to be scum. I thought about it and simply can't believe that scum would risk that much just to get someone who claims to be medic and whom most of us are unsure about. Please reconsider your votes guys. ##Vote: Clawtrocity | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:36 Clawtrocity wrote: I don't see how being medic and claiming medic hurt my chances of winning when the mafia are quite aware of a thing called WIFOM. By virtue of me claiming medic they don't think I'm medic at all and I'm allowed to heal whomever I please. Here's a simplified model. Mafia have no other information to work with than your claim. I assume they are expectation maximizing. Presume they believe you have a 50/50 chance of telling the truth. Your chance of being the medic from their perspective is now 50%. This is higher than the 1/7 chance you had before (assuming nobody got voted off in day play). It would be a dominant strategy for them to target you. Fortunately, you are not a medic and, as scum,you will be the one targeting me. And since nobody is willing to vote you off, I sincerely hope you follow your own twisted suboptimal logic and invent some WIFOM excuse for not lynching me. | ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic. At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:39 FirmTofu wrote: See, the main reason I don't think your game theoretic models apply to this game is because I am a town detective and your game theoretic models directly oppose this fact. Why would I believe they work on Claw if they don't work on me? So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:43 FirmTofu wrote: Additionally, you seem to distance your activities from ours as if you are somehow confirmed town and no one should doubt your alignment. Have you tried applying your game theory models to yourself? You seem to be voting Claw after doing the exact same thing you said was scummy about him: claiming medic. At least I am consistent in my actions. I think both you and Claw are town. However, you are not. If Slaw is scum by your logic, then you must be scum as well. You quite literally pulled the exact same gambit he did. I've run through this example many times already, but for the sake of dumb hope I'll do it again. My revelation of medic was chiefly to call out Claw's 100% scummy behavior with the anticipation that getting rid of a scum on day 1 in exchange for medic on night 1 is a good trade. It IS a good trade. There's nothing inconsistent about that. Initially claiming vanilla townie is a valid strategy regardless of role or alignment. There's nothing inconsistent about that. Where are you claiming inconsistencies? | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
| ||
|
FirmTofu
United States1956 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:45 Gummy wrote: So you reveal Detective after medic reveals himself with full knowledge that medic cannot protect himself. How would this even be reasonable play if the medic could protect himself? I've already explained this several times and you have yet to come up with a valid answer as to why you would reveal yourself following Claw's revelation unless you two communicated and planned it ahead of time. Tell us what your belief was that made you think in that moment that claiming detective was a wise thing to do. My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. | ||
|
Clawtrocity
United States21 Posts
Mafia have no other information to work with than your claim. I assume they are expectation maximizing. Presume they believe you have a 50/50 chance of telling the truth. Your chance of being the medic from their perspective is now 50%. This is higher than the 1/7 chance you had before (assuming nobody got voted off in day play). It would be a dominant strategy for them to target you. Yes, but the mafia aren't looking at it like a 50% chance because they have to take into account the fact that this game is called Mafia and lying is part of the game. That lowers their chance to 25% because I could lying both ways. Then they have to take into account that I might be lying and what other targets they could hit instead of me. That lowers my chance to be attacked down to 3.5% chance. Which is 25% of the original 14% that I could have been attacked for. This math thing is pretty cool. | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote: My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. Your analysis is wrong on at least 2 levels. 1.) Once Claw has claimed medic, he has made himself the single target (if he is not scum). You gain nothing by revealing except for a certain turn 2 death. Assuming rational night play by Mafia, you would've had a 1/6 chance of dying night 2. Now you have a 1 in 1 chance of dying night 2, since the medic is dead. 2.) If Claw flips scum, as I say he will, you are screwed because I am the medic and I will be killed tonight. Even if I am foolish enough to use my save on you, you will still die on night 2. | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
Claw and Tofu have made quite a case against themselves with their nonsense. Whatevz. | ||
|
Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
Night 1 ![[image loading]](http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-v6jqgLvosQI/Td_tdjm3oZI/AAAAAAAAAKU/CirzGSuQB9w/s1600/hangmans-noose.jpg) "We got no one for you sheriff," said the town. No-one was lynched! It is now Night 1. Night is 24 hours PM me all night actions and not Mementoss | ||
|
Mementoss
Canada2595 Posts
 | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
| ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
Thanks again all of you! <3 | ||
|
Matriarch
United States21 Posts
| ||
|
paschl
Germany666 Posts
I cant take another 24hours of this. Ill be back when the next day is called,. | ||
|
Gummy
United States2180 Posts
On May 03 2012 09:58 Matriarch wrote: Does it matter that I am female? Yes! If at some point in the future there are gene splicing therapies an my Y-chromosome somehow gets corrupted, I will know not to ask you for a DNA transplant. =3 | ||
|
Mattchew
United States5684 Posts
| ||
|
AcesRequiem
Belgium26 Posts
On May 03 2012 08:52 FirmTofu wrote: My reasoning was that because the medic had already decided to reveal, I might as well give him a target to heal. Either way, I don't affect his chances of being killed, I only increased my chances of surviving at night. If Claw flips scum, as you say he will, I am still in a good position because the medic is hidden and I can begin informing town of my results. If Claw flips Vanilla Townie, then the medic is safely hidden, and again I am still in a great position going forward. If Claw flips Medic, then we are in trouble. However, according to you this is impossible, so I have nothing to worry about. Like I said before, claiming detective was a win-win situation. That's why I did it. How are you so sure the medic will support you, even after people have called your play scummy and irrational? Even if Gummy isn't the medic, you still have no 100% guarantee the medic will heal you the night after. Clawtrocity, you think Gummy is protecting you with his counterclaim and accuesitions he throws at you. But you're tired of this circlejerk between you both and decide to cast a vote on him, yet you are sure he is Town and you state that to a fellow player, but still don't withdraw your vote? And even then you keep giving arguments and critize Gummy on his points he makes to you (for example the freudian slip and the math-war you have going on there), even though you think of yourself you are in a perfect position and cannot be harmed at all, just because he is protecting you. I have no idea how you even CAME UP with this theory, but I hope you are starting to believe this is complete crap you're spitting. At least I can safely say you are only causing confusing in the Town, at worse I can say you're 99% scum. Please convince me otherwise. Gummy, please chill out and try to convince the Town of your arguments instead of posting heavy-emotional influenced arguments that makes no sense at all and make people not take you serious. I am your side atm in the fact that Claw is scum, but for complete other reasons (i.e. his confusing play that helps the town NOTHING at all). | ||
|
paschl
Germany666 Posts
And since we went no lynch day1 we need another no lynch somewhere down the line unless we sweep it. Im still here but i dont see any good coming from me making any more posts as long as Gummy is alive. | ||
| ||
BSL: GosuLeague
RO24 Group C
UltrA vs TBD
Hawk vs TBD
nOmaD vs TBD
perroflaco vs TBD
Hejek vs TBD
VenOm vs TBD
ZZZero.O158
[ Submit Event ] |
|
|
|
OSC
Replay Cast
Replay Cast
SOOP Global
NightMare vs GuMiho
Classic vs SHIN
SOOP
NightMare vs Oliveira
SC Evo Complete
WardiTV Invitational
CSO Cup
Replay Cast
Sparkling Tuna Cup
[ Show More ] |
|
|
EPT
