EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VIII
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yomi
United States773 Posts
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yomi
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yomi
United States773 Posts
Out of thread communication: Will not be in this game for townies. Move along. As for you scum people, feel free to use any media you deem necessary, just remember nothing is secure. So town people cannot PM each other at all? What do you mean by nothing is secure? Aren't the mafia sure of who their teammates are and are not? Mafia KP is Always Equal to 1! what does this mean? Should I PM questions like this in the future? | ||
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yomi
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yomi
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I can't think of a more pointless discussion than the one we are having now. It is being led by Broodking, Kharadbanar, and Dittert. I have the most confidence in willz and to a slightly lesser extent arctic. I'm not sure what we SHOULD be discussing since no investigation abilities have gone out yet, but I doubt this is it. Getting people to talk just for the sake of it is great but my fear is that this discussion will bleed into day 2 when we will have some actual information. | ||
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yomi
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On April 12 2012 11:56 BroodKingEXE wrote: This is your first post, yet you do nothing to contribute. Why should we stop the discussion, it seems like people are already forming opinions on people based on the "pointless" discussion. Instead of trying to stop the talk, why dont you look over what has already been said and start forming ideas about the tone of the responses. nothing to contribute? I am one of the only people to post something substantive, specific, and concrete. I have looked over what's been said and formed ideas. For example I think you are mafia. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
##vote: dittert did I do that right? I really don't know what to make of Xatalos. I find him suspicious but he himself pointed to dittert and arctic (and me....) Can someone do a list of where all the votes stand currently? Super busy today. @xatalos: yomi even had a strange OMGUS reaction to BroodKingEXE after being suspected, without ANYTHING to back up his counter-suspicion re-read my post. maybe it's not clear, but I accused HIM first. I said brood, kharad, dittert are leading a pointless discussion aka suspicious. willz and arctic I have confidence in aka confident they are town. I no longer think this of arctic. brood never actually accuses me btw. he, like many, won't take a concrete enough stance. @brood On April 12 2012 15:12 BroodKingEXE wrote: @yomi What about Hiro? KB put his vote on him, and here is his response: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 09:57 HiroPro wrote: I'm not an idiot Kharad. Also, lol @ anyone who thinks Kharad's vote is random. He picked me because he wants to compare the response from last game to this game. And this entire conversation about how and when to pressure vote is pointless, considering it's already been done in this game. It doesn't make sense. If KB can see a difference in tone helps the town figure out if he is scum. I want to Hiro to tell us why he isn't scum. Until then I'm going to continue to think he is scum. I found this whole exchange bizarre and didn't really know what to make of it one way or another honestly. Hiro doesn't post a lot so I guess that's suspicious but I don't post that much either. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
I find him suspicious but he himself pointed to dittert and arctic (and me....) Implying that I agree with your case against arctic. notice my logic here that when you suspect someone I also suspect, that makes you less suspicious, as the two reads are mutually exclusive. I was the first person in the thread to attack dittert. I was the first person in this thread to make a concrete attack on anyone. You are now suspicious of him yourself. Therefore .... I'm also suspicious? how am I lurking? how am I not being constructive? I was the first person to post a solid list of suspicious/not suspicious. arctic is off my not suspicious list and has been for some time. It just seems way too convenient that they lurked all game and SUDDENLY appeared to post RIGHT after I called them out I posted in this thread before you. So did dittert. You were one of the last entrants into the thread. I think xatalos is a dunce. A town dunce, but a dunce nonetheless. also BTW i still don't like brood. | ||
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yomi
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This is what I thought was suspicious: On April 12 2012 08:11 BroodKingEXE wrote: Hi Guys, I would like to kick off this game with a discussion question: What do you guys think of a Lynch all Lurkers and a Lynch all Liars policy? This is often a strategy employed in games to get scum to talk, and thus be able to separate them from the group. I strongly suggest such a policy, because in forum Mafia we naturally only have the posts of the Mafia to weed them out. If they aren't talking or are lying we will never be able to figure out the truth. Many others have said policy discussion is suspicious. I agree. That's why I was the first to point out dittert and also pointed out, and am iterating my stance against, brood, the other policy wonk. Brood proposes a lurk or lie policy. Dittert proposes an RNG policy. Kharad engages both of them in what I think is a ridiculous discussion. I accuse all three in the first concrete post of the whole thread. Now I am accused of not being concrete, not contributing, etc. Sorry I don't spam the thread, I guess I should. Every post I have made I have accused someone. What is more solid than that? Arctic please vote. You say you don't want to vote early but it's really not that early anymore. Remember I posted that I thought you were town? I'm less and less convinced of that. | ||
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yomi
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On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum? note arctic coming to the defense of dittert aka the most highly suspected player defending the second most highly suspected player. first big slip? not sure what to make of hiro accusing xatalos. I think the guy is kind of ridiculous but I think he (xatalos) is town. arctic/ditt/hiropro mafia 1/2/3 ? | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
for the third time: I am voting for Dittert because he proposed a policy which I thought was bizarre and ill advised. More than that, I thought that proposing any policy at all was suspicious. Am I really not writing clearly because I feel like I have made one post in this thread and then explained it 5 times. | ||
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yomi
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I will just say that I can't believe arctic and dittert playing dumb anymore. Maybe it really is me and I'm not being clear but I don't think that's the case. I think they are pretending to not understand some pretty straightforward statements. I'm not going to reiterate myself over and over again to you guys as it is getting ridiculous. you accuse me: I read in the mafia guides that a key mafia tell is trying to rehash old things over and over again. yet you are the one that is doing this. you are the one that keeps bringing up my first post and saying it contains no substance. you (and others) keep saying I haven't said anything. I reiterate what I have said to try to make clear what I have said and then get accused of not saying anything anymore. I want to make a bigger contribution than going in circles with you. Which I plan to do tomorrow. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
It all starts with this bizarre proposal On April 12 2012 08:58 Dittert wrote: What if we all agree to a rng lynch... at least proposing someone to lynch via rng. Then we have something to take a stance on. , I saw someone suggest a seemingly "random" lynch in a couple other games, and in all of those cases the person doing the suggesting ended up getting lynched and being a townie. This is sort of humorous but I think it is a leveling play. I think he saw a strategy that DIDN’T work in other games, and wanted to employ it here. Believing it would again not work. Now Dittert starts really posting and seems like a noob but really is just playing dumb. On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say It doesn’t scream scum because he, like many others, is pointing out that a bad strategy is bad. Why does Dittert keep pushing us to employ bizarre tactics? Because if people use their intuition they will correctly land on him as a mafia player. On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: Second, we have this gem: Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. He is saying that all lynches have risk but lynching you is less risky as our worst case scenario is lynching a bad player. Him accusing willz who I am still the most confident in only raises my suspicion further. On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: Note how even though he lists the 1/2/3 mafia as AF/me/hiropro, he doesn't vote for #1, he votes for me. Derp? I don’t know how you read my post as implying an order of suspicion. Playing dumb again and trying to redirect. On April 13 2012 10:49 Dittert wrote: Well, I admitted that part was a little weak. I can change my read if you want, since I now think someone else is definitely town, but I won't say who or why for fear of endangering his life. The mafia already know who their teammates are and you know this. There are no neutrals. Playing dumb to get out of an accusation. Typical dittert. Contrast these statements: On April 13 2012 22:54 Dittert wrote: 2. Though he has participated a lot, he has not really accused anyone of anything (with a nod to the token aggression towards iamallinson). I think he's waiting until the very end to make any concrete statement so he can judge what stance will be most beneficial to scum. On April 13 2012 01:00 Dittert wrote: You claim to be the first person in the thread to attack me, but willz and Arctic attacked me first. Willz is ONE OF the first to make a suspicious list. Unfortunately I’m on it, but still. Dittert is a ridiculous player that puts words in people’s mouths and posts a lot of nonsensical and stupid things. A lot of people had him pegged as noob town and I almost swung over to that belief but I just don’t buy it anymore. I thought he was mafia before and I still think he is. I’m staying on dittert and I think you guys need to reconsider willz. | ||
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yomi
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On April 14 2012 03:55 Xatalos wrote: I wasn't sure about voting for yomi over Willz before this post, but now I am. There are several things about yomi that make me very suspicious of him: A) He has been lurking extremely hard and contributing nothing until this moment. Right as Willz starts defending himself, yomi suddenly appears and makes a case against Dittert to improve his filter while avoiding any real attention with this Willz debate going on. Is this a coincidence? It MIGHT be, but I'm leaning on this being a purposeful play. Yesterday he said he would start contributing for real today, but all I see is this one post and then he's already going away until deadline. B) yomi doesn't try to defend Willz or sway the vote away from him, but he says some empty one-liners like "if I were you I'd reconsider lynching Willz", "I have the most confidence in Willz as town", stuff like that. To me, this looks like pure Mafia play. He knows Willz is town, so he leaves these remarks on his post history to look better later on. When Willz inevitably flips town, he can be "safe" tomorrow by claiming he knew Willz was innocent all along and vote for somebody who voted for Willz. Easy offence and defence in one tactic! C) His case on Dittert is pretty lackluster and, in my opinion, only a cover for avoiding attention for tomorrow. Dittert has been talked about to death already and yomi's case against him doesn't really bring anything new to the table. Still, he's a safe target for his noobie errors earlier and rather stubborn tunneling on Willz (which is not necessarily a Mafia tell IMO, because Mafia don't want to be the figureheads of mislynches). I think most share the opinion that Dittert is a noob townie who doesn't quite realize what he's doing. Focusing on him now isn't very productive in my eyes, especially since yomi merely repeats earlier accusations against him (plus some stuff about Willz's innocence only to improve his own credibility for tomorrow). I'm pretty confident about yomi being Mafia - reconsider voting for him after reading this post, Willz. If you voted for him, it would be 3 for yomi and 4 for you. I still see it as somehow possible to lynch yomi instead of you and I think it's the better solution. Lynching you isn't too bad either, since you had some pretty suspicious stuff (or if you flip town, your words will be noted tomorrow with more importance and we can study this bandwagon more closely) but I'm much more confident in lynching yomi than you right now. A & B: On April 14 2012 03:55 Xatalos wrote: yomi doesn't try to defend Willz or sway the vote away from him, but he says some empty one-liners like "if I were you I'd reconsider lynching Willz", "I have the most confidence in Willz as town", stuff like that This is an empty one-liner? fuck me... What do you want me to say? I am 100% sure willz is town. if you vote for him i am 100% sure you are mafia. is that not empty? wtf... I have avoided the willz debate? I have not defended him? This is a ridiculous accusation. I'm not going to back the guy 100% but I have stated my opinion. I think he's town. I was the first to say he's town. I still say he's town. I guess these are empty one-liners to you but I don't know what to say to that. You want me to take a more hardline stance but I can't. I think the guy is safe. Especially now in these closing hours it just seems more and more town to me. I'll never go 100% and why am I the only one who has to go 100% on a guy? When Willz inevitably flips town, he can be "safe" tomorrow by claiming he knew Willz was innocent all along and vote for somebody who voted for Willz. Easy offence and defence in one tactic! damed if I do, damned if I don't. If i am less fervent in my defense of willz I am not defending him. If I defend him and he flips town it is a clever mafia play. What would make you NOT suspicious of me? I have defended him more than you and am becoming increasingly uncomfortable pinning my reputation on one guy but you seem to want me to do that. You seem to already have a gambit in mind that based on this one flip you are ready to go-ahead with and even call for vigi action! How can you be so sure? I stand by my initial read of you that you are town, but a ridiculous one. A "dunce" I think I called you and now you are retaliating. C: Dittert has been talked to death because he is so suspicious. Maybe you don't think I caught anything new. I think I pointed out the "playing dumb" angle pretty well. I think most share the opinion that Dittert is a noob townie who doesn't quite realize what he's doing Exactly. I am trying to sway people that he is not a noob townie and DOES know what he's doing. That his posts are too ridiculous to believe. I don't know what you consider a solid case to be but it's all speculation so far. I think it's a good case, I think it makes as much sense as anyone else's and I think it's logical. No investigations have gone out. No one has flipped. No one has anything concrete on anything. I am posting what my intuition tells me. Who I suspect and who I don't. To pretend you are doing anything different is ridiculous. My arguments are as legitimate as yours. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
On April 14 2012 04:49 Xatalos wrote: Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case): - Willz is town - yomi is Mafia Here are the possible outcomes: A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not. B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow. But what if I flip town? How does it confirm you and arctic if I am mafia? Mafia trying to distance each other etc. This is not logical, this is circular. You are saying it is good to lynch me because I am mafia. OK. That's logical. Lynching a mafia is good. But your attempt to do this pseudo cost-benefit analysis is ridiculous as it is predicated on you being right in the first place, therefore it cannot be an argument for you being right! You are saying if I am mafia and willz is town it is better to lynch me than willz. Is this supposed to be an argument? | ||
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yomi
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I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie. ##unvote: dittert ##vote: willz22912 I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro | ||
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yomi
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I am accused of not contributing enough and having bad arguments. just amazing. ya I will go on hiropro NP | ||
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On April 14 2012 05:55 Xatalos wrote: Why so scared? If you are town, you should post and convince us you are innocent. Instead you try to protect your hide by sacrificing your "most townie read" even BEFORE you are set to be lynched. This makes me even more suspicious of you, which is quite an achievement. I can't see a motivation for town to do this. Why so scared? I am one vote away from being lynched. I guess only a mafia gets scared when they are one vote away from being lynched. before I am set to be lynched? what do you mean? you want me to post with 1 second left? you can't see a motivation for a player to ensure they survive? this is becoming dittert playing dumb level of ridiculous | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=293561 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=326871¤tpage=7#129 attacking other people being supportive: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328386 Why am I like this online? I'm not sure, I'm very polite in person. I guess it's letting loose. I don't even know if I should respond to xatalos anymore honestly. He claims I was/am not in any danger but that is so patently dumb I don't know what to say. Xat you are aware that if I hit 5 before willz that I am pretty much dead right? the order of the votes counts bud..... You want me to act like willz, I am not willz. I'll try to go through and grab a more concrete read on someone else but I don't want to stretch anything. A lot of people's arguments are HIGHLY speculative IMO and I don't want to be forced into pulling something out of my ass. If I only have a few reads I'm confident in then that's that. I'm not going to grasp at straws just to say I "contributed" when I think there's way too much spam in this thread and now I'm beginning to contribute to it myself. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
I find this post comical at best and already debunked it. I am an abrasive person and now I am dead. I don't know what you guys consider "helpful" but I guess I haven't done it. I think most of the posts in this thread are ridiculous at best and wildly speculative. I won't post anything speculative because I don't think more posting is automatically good and I only want to post things I'm at least somewhat sure of. I think more posting is actually bad and people should try to stay as concise as possible and post a lot less frequently or you guys are going to overwhelm yourselves with spam. I know I already can barely follow the thread. ~20 pages based on no actual information. I find this game bizarre. I think the following players are suspicious: xatalos - because his reasoning is frequently ridiculous. too dumb to believe (see dittert) hiropro - not posting dittert - can't believe the noob town act anymore. brood: this is his "case" against willz http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=18#349 seriously? that passes for an argument now? I think the following players are town: willz honestly not sure of anyone else at this point well that's everything on my mind. I'm prob dead no matter what. gg. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
On April 14 2012 06:40 vonKlaust wrote: I'm willing to change my vote to Brood now if we get a concencus. Not only does he once again jump into a bandwagon, he also votes AGAINST what he believe would be good for town. I guess it goes without saying that I am also willing to switch to brood | ||
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yomi
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##vote: BroodKing | ||
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I guess this is super against my interest to post but it seems I'm dead no matter what Xatalos, your suspicion of me and brood is mutually exclusive as I was the first to finger brood. Remember when I said I find your reasoning bizarre at times? This is one of those times. also i typed brood's name wrong ##unvote ##vote: BroodKingExe | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
now it seems the town's top suspicions are: me willz brood yet us three have attacked each other frequently. congratulations I pretty much hate you guys. please stop and think more clearly about the chain of accusations and what it means about possible combinations of mafia. | ||
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yomi
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On April 14 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote: You only said things like "I don't like Brood" and "Brood's been leading a useless discussion". Fits well into the category of Mafia teammates putting some distance between each other with weak pressure. Certainly nothing to redeem you if BroodKing flips Mafia. I am about to put you on ignore seriously brood was not on anyone's radar at all and I kept bringing him up. in my first post and again here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=9#179 and the next few posts after. mafia finger each other totally out of nowhere just to put distance right? when neither are in any danger? | ||
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can we get back on dittert or hiropro? I don't trust xatalos at all. Not that I think he is mafia necessarily. But that, as I hope I've pointed out, the guy's reasoning is ridiculous and back and forth. Just skimmed through his filter again and wow is he all over the place. I think he has fingered half the players in the game? And caused a lot of confusion, at least for me. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
On April 14 2012 08:39 Xatalos wrote: I think yomi is Mafia even more strongly after BroodKing's town flip. The way yomi seemed so eager to shift the vote from himself to BroodKing didn't feel right to me if they were both Mafia. However, this makes more sense... He saw an innocent townie making such a hugely suspicious move and immediately jumped on it as his last hope. If he isn't Vigi shot tonight, we will have to use the whole day 2 talking about him, so it's best to get rid off him right now. Oh boy here we go again. Are we really going to do this all night xatalos. So broodking being town makes you think I'm mafia EVEN MORE strongly. Yet if he had flipped mafia? You would be less suspicious? Once you have your sights on someone you just look to confirm which is a fallacy in reasoning. What would an innocent townie do? Not go after brood? Yet you are claiming to be an innocent townie and you went after brood. As did many others. We were all wrong. We all switched to him for the same reason. Yet you are so myopic that every possible thing I say or don't say or do or don't do will only confirm that I am mafia. On April 14 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote: You only said things like "I don't like Brood" and "Brood's been leading a useless discussion". Fits well into the category of Mafia teammates putting some distance between each other with weak pressure. Certainly nothing to redeem you if BroodKing flips Mafia. On April 14 2012 07:08 Xatalos wrote: I did the same when I was Mafia last game. I kept gumshoe as my top Mafia read while nobody else suspected him. It worked well for me there. chaoser also made his first vote for Acrofales, a Mafia teammate. That argument is just WIFOM, there's no way what you might think of as Mafia. Apparently he’s the only one that can speculate on mafia motives. Once Xatalos has his target on you, everything is just confirmation. Whoever's the vigi is going to do what they're going to do. Let's talk about what makes sense. Which is still our old friends dittert and hiropro | ||
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yomi
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On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote: The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox. On April 12 2012 16:17 Xatalos wrote: People I'm fine with lynching right now: ArcticFox, Dittert, yomi, imallinson. On April 12 2012 18:18 Xatalos wrote: Actually, KharadBanar's fake pressure voting is the exact same tactic I used in A Game of Thrones as Mafia. Thanks for pointing that out, Acrofales. It definitely casts doubt on him, so I wouldn't be against lynching him. On April 12 2012 18:58 Xatalos wrote: Acrofales, I encourage you to vote already. Your hesitation to vote only increases my suspicion of you, On April 12 2012 23:45 Xatalos wrote: yomi, Dittert and HiroPro: your contributions so far are non-existent. ArcticFox posted something useful at last, so I'm almost willing to vote for someone else in his place, but you three need to post something before I can get a clear town/Mafia read on you. For the time being, I'm going to keep my vote on ArcticFox, since he's the only one I can make a strong case against at the moment. But you three are next in the line unless you convince me otherwise. On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote: Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. ##Unvote ##Vote: vonKlaust On April 13 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote: Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him. ##Unvote ##Vote: willz22912 I count 9 people fingered out of 13 total players minus himself for 9/12. | ||
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yomi
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who didn't he suspect? | ||
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On April 14 2012 15:04 Xatalos wrote: now you say I shouldn't focus on getting one player lynched. When did I say this? Notice how when I attack you I use quotes but when you attack me you get to stand on your high horse and just proclaim facts down from the mountaintop. Please find the quote for me where I say you shouldn't focus on getting one player lynched. Is it this? Once you have your sights on someone you just look to confirm which is a fallacy in reasoning. What would an innocent townie do? Not go after brood? Yet you are claiming to be an innocent townie and you went after brood. As did many others. We were all wrong. We all switched to him for the same reason. Yet you are so myopic that every possible thing I say or don't say or do or don't do will only confirm that I am mafia. I think this is very clearly describing an attack on your reasoning style and not a call for you to stop getting people lynched. Maybe a call for you to stop trying to get ME lynched. But you have horribly misrepresented my statements in your post. Please substantiate your post with quotes like I am doing to you. Also let's contrast these statements: I accuse xatalos of being all over the place. He responds: On April 14 2012 15:04 Xatalos wrote: Why should I keep silent about my suspicions or not push the lynch of my top suspect? You suggesting I should do that seems... suspicious and anti-town, at best. imallinson agrees with my argument that xatalos is all over the place. He responds: On April 14 2012 19:24 Xatalos wrote: Hmm. Okay, I can agree with the part about throwing so many suspicions so fast being a bit confusing, but what do you mean I haven't backed up my claims with any evidence? Is this serious? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarecrow_argument http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confirmation_bias He is a dunce or a mafia intentionally confusing people. More and more I believe the latter. | ||
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United States773 Posts
On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote: For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks. you mean investigate? you don't kill for info you investigate for info. you kill to clear a suspected mafia. If you think we are mafia that's one thing, direct the vigi to a suspected mafia, good idea. But don't justify it by pointing out the upside that then we will know the person's role after they're dead. What about the downside that the kill could be wrong? One could use this rational to justify shooting ANYONE. again, pretending to be noob for too long for it to be believable. | ||
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yomi
United States773 Posts
With those two arguments trashed, there are still a lot of reasons to believe you are Mafia: Aka no matter what happens I am mafia in your eyes. Yet your "bigger contribution" was merely another case against Dittert, at a timing where you would slip by unnoticed almost certainly. You did mention the possibility of Dittert playing dumb to distract us, which is a plausible idea, but not enough to make your existence for the whole 48 hours useful. You really think lurking for 40 hours and then posting one, small new idea at an awkward timing is pro-town play? Merely another case against a player that I thought was mafia, and still think is mafia. Should I have played more like you? Keep accusing different players? Bounce around between 10 different accusations? How is sticking to one guy that everyone is slowly starting to agree is mafia not contributing. Instead of one small (good) idea should I post 20 ideas that all contradict each other and confuse people? How am I lurking for 40 hours? This is not close to a factual statement. What about hiropro? He posted WAY less than me yet you don’t seem to care about him at all. 2) Considering the scenario where you are Mafia and Willz is town, it would just make so much sense for you to leisurely claim Willz's innocence and then go back to lurking while Willz gets lynched. That way you would get a more townie impression for the next day and a powerful weapon to go after the people who pushed for Willz's lynch, without appearing suspicious yourself. Now, of course there are other possibilities: you could be both town, both Mafia, or Willz could be Mafia and you town. I have explained earlier why I don't feel like Willz is a very likely Mafia at the moment, which leaves us at the possible scenarios (in my eyes) of both town or you Mafia & Willz town. Consider the scenario where I am town and believe but am not sure willz is town. It would just make so much sense to put in a vote of confidence for the guy as I have done before while realizing that I’m not sure that he really is town. It’s just a hunch. Just like your hunches. That way I would decrease the chances that a player I think is town is lynched while not saying things that are not true like that I am 100% sure he is town. This is amazing confirmation bias. This is just an extremely meek and vague attitude towards the whole event. Look at what I did: Willz didn't strike me as Mafia, so I focused all my energy on getting a better Mafia read lynched instead of him. Then look at what you did yourself: you were much more certain of Willz's innocence than I was, yet you put in zero effort to get someone else (Dittert, for example?) lynched. Why would you be so disinterested in your best town read getting lynched right in front of you? And it looks like you just ignored the case Acrofales made against him and casually said "btw, Willz is town for sure, by all means lynch him and see I was right tomorrow!". If you are town, your attitude is pretty disturbing... There is a small possibility of you just being lazy / confused, but it doesn't make nearly as much sense as the scenario of you Mafia & Willz town. So here I am both meek and vague but also sure that willz is town and defend him saying I am 100% sure he is town but also as the same time don’t do anything to stop the lynch. Statements like this are why I am no longer responding to you for the near future. What do you want from me? Sorry I am not good at drawing long convoluted arguments from the almost zero information we had on day1 like you are. You are basically attacking me for being concise and consistent. Whose posting style is more anti-town? Mine or yours? I was more certain of willz innocence than you were? WHAT? You just said my statement was vague. Which is it. Vaguely alluding that I think he is innocent or declaring that I know for sure he is 100% innocent. Look at my statements in defense of willz. Look at yours: On April 14 2012 04:33 Xatalos wrote: At this point, I'm not very confident in Willz being Mafia, since his latest posts have been very insightful and relevant. I would rate his current play as very pro-town. yomi's play I would rate as very anti-town. On April 14 2012 04:39 Xatalos wrote: I now have such a strong Mafia read on yomi, that I can't really see myself being mistaken On April 14 2012 04:54 Xatalos wrote: I can't see a possible situation where both Willz and yomi would be Mafia. . But I am the one that is certain willz is innocent? I am the one setting myself up to claim that I was right all along when/if willz flipped town? So the only pro town thing I could do if I'm attacked is to go after someone else? I did, I stuck on dittert until there was a way to save myself by going brood who I had already suspected at the time. How fervently do you want me to go after dittert when there was I think maybe one other vote for the guy at the time? I think only I was still on him. The only way to protect myself was to defend myself against your accusations but that is being overly defensive I guess. The only town thing to do is to lash out? That's your argument? Not try to stop a townie (me) from being lynched? I will try to accuse as many people as possible tomorrow for as many reasons as possible. Maybe then you will stop your crusade against me. Doubtful and I refuse to confuse the town like that. 3) Your response to my accusations was extremely defensive and panicked. Your defence consisted of A) personal insults against me B) WIFOM about Mafia's inner relations C) desperate comments like "can't believe it has come to this but I must protect myself" - and how do you protect yourself, not by explaining yourself calmly or contributing something at last, but instead by voting for Willz and posting ridiculous WIFOM like this: My defense is defensive. Why yes xatalos, when you attack me for 5 pages+ my defense is defensive. Only a mafia would defend themselves from a fairly influential player tunneling them by being defensive. A town would defend themselves by flinging accusations at other people? Something you keep demanding I do but I won’t. I won’t mimic your off the walls posting style. I have a few reads and am now going to devote my energy to looking into them further instead of being bullied by you. Maybe you interpret them as personal insults but I don’t know how else to point out how illogical your posts are other than to say you are illogical. My bad. Ya I am in a position where I am one vote from being lynched and move to protect myself from being lynched. But only mafia protect themselves from being lynched. A couple of people including you have called this move “too early”. I think I had 4 votes at that time and 5 would pretty much lose it. Ties go to the player to get voted first. So I had to vote first to protect myself. A player one or two votes away from a sure lynch acted to protect themselves too early? You keep demanding I contribute but I don’t know how to other than to 1 – try to get you off my back so I can figure out the other mafia and 2 – post concisely who I am suspicious of. Sorry I am only suspicious of a few players and don’t pretend to have 100 different reasons for it. You are pressuring me into spamming the thread like you do. How is it WIFOM to point out that players who act aggressively towards each other are probably not mafia teammates? How can this reasoning be WIFOM but yours is the pinnacle of logic? Again, this is the last time I will respond to you. I think this is an exercise in futility as I am certain that there is no post I could make or any action I could take that would make you less suspicious of me. You’ve zeroed in for god knows what reason and in doing so have only shown how ridiculous you are and allowed me to analyze you more closely, revealing a pattern of very aggressive and distracting posting. It’s one thing to speculate on almost every single town player being mafia but you actively try to lead and convince others to go down all these different paths with you. Aka distracting the town. I’m going to go through others' filters now. I can’t believe how long you have distracted me into posting only in this back and forth with just you. | ||
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On April 15 2012 00:42 Xatalos wrote: yomi, I concede the fact that you panic-voting for Willz wasn't necessarily a Mafia play. I must protect myself" - and how do you protect yourself, not by explaining yourself calmly or contributing something at last, but instead by voting for Willz and posting ridiculous WIFOM like this: he concedes this argument is illogical and then just goes ahead and makes it again. I didn't even catch it until just now. please go through xatalos' filter guys. it's worth a look. | ||
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Is it totally random? Do you have a preset number of town you want w/ power roles and # of mafia with power roles? Or all this is supposed to be a mystery? Someone not lazy could go through previous newbie mafias and figure this out. I am trying to think of the marginal benefit/cost of a vig shooting tonight and got to thinking about the odds of if they kill a mafia, whether it be a power role mafia. Is it 2/3 chance to be power role? Because the marginal benefit of a kill on mafia is 1) potential loss of a power role. less total turns of that power role go out 2) information about who their allies might be. point 1 gets weaker as the game goes on as we are eliminating less total turns of their ability. point 2 gets stronger as the players will have revealed more about their allegiances. The benefit/cost of a townie is similar. Lose their ability for a longer part of the game, but see who has been accusing them. Is the chance of a power role townie 4/5? I doubt it. | ||
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decisions decisions | ||
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Or can there be multiple vigis? I would like a response to my green question sorry this is all equivocal but I can't help it I am an econ major http://quotationsbook.com/quote/11809/ p.s. don't shoot me and I don't think there should be a shot tonight at all tbh as for who to hit with saves this is way too wifom. go for people you are most confident are town? save me from an erroneous vig (i had to try)? the choice is yours and yours alone remember the only person you are 100% sure of is yourself so I might just turtle up tonight. | ||
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@Acrofales just want to point out that I already called a somewhat "truce" with xatalos and stated very clearly I was going to absolutely stop responding to him. I recognized this myself that he was distracting me. | ||
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##vote: Dittert also the afk guy was a lot more likely to be town than mafia since mafia would presumably find the game more exciting? dunno but please come out and post your thoughts on everything so far. it was very heated yesterday and a calm objective mind could really really help right now. | ||
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fuck that reads town lol although willz did this and ended up saving himself so maybe he's trying to do that? who knows but I'm certainly staying on him for now. | ||
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Dittert and Hiropro. The goodfellas. Dittert makes negative posts about the following players: Arcticfox + willz On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. Yomi On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: After all that, I'm ready to cast my vote. ##Vote: Yomi Hiropro attacks: Xatalos On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote: You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes. ##Vote: Xatalos vonK On April 13 2012 07:11 HiroPro wrote: I like the case against vonKlaust a hell of a lot better than the one you made against ArticFox. The whole "i'm confused thing in the beginning is slightly scummy, but the bigger thing against vonKlaust for me is that he that he says that Xatalos has "several potential scumslips", is his prime suspect, but then doesn't vote for him. Someone who doesn't back up their scum reads with a vote is looking around for support too much to be town. ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust Yomi and Brood On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote: Scum read on BroodKing overall - I don't like the posts where he says not to share scum reads. The vote and case on willz is very strange, since a lot of the things he accusses willz of are similar to what BroodKing himself has been doing, and I don't really understand the vote switch onto yomi - to me it seems more like BroodKing was worried that willz was looking townie to other people and thus switched to a new target. yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion. ##Vote: BroodKingEXE So neither of them are super aggro but when they have targeted people it was never each other. Not the most compelling evidence but something in the basket. Notice how hiropro posts about his teammate Dittert when he perceives danger: Discrediting Xatalos’ case vs dittert. On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote: Why the sudden shift in tone? A few posts ago, you were 70 or 80 percent sure that ArticFox is mafia, in this same post you say that either yomi or Dittert is mafia, and yet at the same time you have a hard time figuring out who mafia is? You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes. ##Vote: Xatalos Again, steps in to discredit an anti-dittert post Pretty obvious: On April 13 2012 06:49 HiroPro wrote: Dittert's posting is not that of mafia. He made a silly suggestion and then backed off it, much more indicative of inexperienced town. Just gonna start posting them now lol. Most of his filter reads like this On April 13 2012 06:54 HiroPro wrote: Why do you say that trumpetarm's post contribute more than dittert's? All he's said was that the pressure votes were useless and that Xatalos may be town or sneaky mafia. On April 13 2012 07:00 HiroPro wrote: He's a confident poster but I don't agree with his reads on Dittert or his views on sharing reads. Townlike posting - gives a read, backs it up with logic (even though I don't agree with it) and doesn't waffle around. On April 13 2012 08:20 HiroPro wrote: Obviously I don't still view Xatalos as a mafia read. The reason why I first thought that Xatalos was more scummy in comparison to people like Dittert, was that Xatalos was an experienced player; it seemed unlikely that he would make a bad case like that. This is Dittert's first game; I would expect him to say something silly early on (RNG voting). Since then he hasn't yet posted much; so I can't really give much of a view on Dittert. On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote: yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion. ##Vote: BroodKingEXE Dittert turns on me as soon as I finger him and Hiropro together + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: Okay, time to post. As for lurking, I was at work, where they expect me to... do work and not play TL mafia. I'll be at work tomorrow too. And Saturday! Just FYI, I will actually miss the voting cut-offs due to work, so don't expect any last-minute shenanigans from me. As for my thoughts, I'm still on the willz22912 kick. He has my ##FoS. Here's what I think went down: He saw my bad play and jumped on it, trying for a mislynch. I have explained already here: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). After that, yomi enters the discussion: It struck me that he appeared to be jumping on the willz and AFox bandwagon. At this point, I was already suspicious of those two, so yomi siding with them made me suspicious of him as well. Surely though, he couldn't be so dumb as to list out the mafia team right there, could he? Realizing I had no way of figuring that out (maybe it's so dumb is clever, etc.), I let it be. The next post that caught my attention was this one: I think this was a ploy to distance yomi from AF and to increase the distance between AF and myself. Seeing as how at the time there was an "AF might be mafia" sentiment floating through the thread, this was a good way to link me to scum. Note how even though he lists the 1/2/3 mafia as AF/me/hiropro, he doesn't vote for #1, he votes for me. As for willz, I found this post intriguing: Why would you refer to yourself as the top town candidate unless you wanted to reinforce this belief in people's minds? No one is even remotely accusing you of being scum except for crazy ol' Dittert with his RNG ideas. This seems scummy to me. After all that, I'm ready to cast my vote. ##Vote: Yomi First off, this is not even a little bit an OMGUS vote, even though yomi did vote for me. I'm voting for Yomi over willz for several reasons. 1. I don't think anybody else will vote for willz, so essentially a vote for him is like a vote for Ralph Nader. It may be a good idea, but it's a wasted vote. 2. Everyone else seems to think he's town, as far as I can tell. With this being my first game, I admit that my reads may be off. As far as AFox, people have been discussing X's case against him to death, with no real conclusions being drawn. Yomi, on the other hand, has not really posted anything of value. His filter is more or less a repeated cry of "yes, I'm posting valid things! I shouldn't have to explain myself!" His vote is currently for me, which due to my lack of posting, is about the "safest" vote you can make. As for my accusation that Yomi was lying, he did in fact make a statement that can be proved factually false. He had the tools at his disposal to check the facts before he posted. I don't know what else you want to consider "a lie." What you do with that information is up to you. I'm not advocating we policy lynch Yomi because of this "factually incorrect statement." I'm advocating we lynch him because his behavior is consistent with my understanding of scummy behavior. Acrofales asked for my top 3 town reads, so I'll include those as well. 1. KB - His first vote on HiroPro was clearly to try and get a read on HiroPro's alignment. Mafia don't need to get reads on people's alignment, they already have them. He also did not jump on the "Dittert must be scum for his RNG idea" bandwagon. If he was scum, this would have been an ideal opportunity to try and frame an innocent. 2. Brood - He's reasonably active, but it's more like a scattershot than a laser. He's asking questions of everyone with seemingly no real agenda. Even though I think Brood is town, I also think he says some really stupid shit. For example: Really? Your innocence will save you? Tell that to the victims of the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem Witch trials. 3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town. Okay, discuss! | ||
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On April 16 2012 03:08 KharadBanar wrote: OH MY GOD IT WAS A CONSPIRACY ALL ALONG well... ya. it was Arguing that something sounds like a conspiracy theory is bizarre when we know for 100% sure there is in fact a conspiracy against us. | ||
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save me from an erroneous vig (i had to try) how could this possibly be me claiming I am a doctor? also note heal yourself your as in you The post is advice for doctors to heal themselves. I was the other person that PMed grey for clarification of the role after I had posted that. Healing the only person you are 100% sure is town is not bad advice. In fact I think it's such a strong play it is the reason why it is not allowed. Or realism reasons. Not trying to start the back and forth again just wanted to clarify. Please use your laser vision on another target and bring us back something good xat | ||
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I think we are all waiting for dittert, the new guy, and maybe a couple other people to post. Plus not a lot has changed that requires a re-review of earlier posts. I am glad there is MUCH MUCH less spam than yesterday and everyone is being very concise. The new style of posting today is phenomenal. A lot easier to follow the goings-on. On the other hand, I hope the lack of posting is not a sign of lack of interest or motivation. I know for my part it's not, I've been refreshing all night while I do shitty finance homework. I think we are just all on the same page with not much else to say that hasn't already been said. We are only down 2 guys and I really feel we are on the right track today. While there is disagreement on who to lynch I think most of us have both of these guys pretty high up on our lists, at least based on the literal lists that a few people have posted. Who are we better off lynching? I think dittert. IF xatalos is town, he can still contribute. He is at least motivated. I honestly think motivated to cause confusion, but if he did flip town I think it's a bigger loss than dittert. Dittert just seems done with the game. Hopefully not, maybe he is about to come out with something great that we haven't thought of. We'll see. But if everyone is in quiet agreement, we should discuss who is the better target of the two. Maybe a formal ##fos would help us see where we are at. I would like to see if I am correct that we are mostly #1/#2 on these guys. Yes I realize I am some people's #2. If I am right, the decision is worth some thought to try to optimize as much as possible. ##fos: xatalos keeping my vote on dittert for the reason above. | ||
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On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote: I still think they're the most likely mafia pair, especially after Yomi spent all of D1 claiming that can you clarify how you are reading this quote? do you think I am saying that I think willz is 100% town? | ||
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On April 16 2012 13:44 Dittert wrote: Claiming someone is basically "100% town" Do you think this is a fair description of my statement? | ||
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that didn't go very well lol | ||
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ON THE OTHER HAND!: Who are his teammates? Maybe I am just biased towards myself and egocentric etc whatever but I feel like the xat case originates from me. And was easy to shut down initially. I start going at the guy at a time when I myself don't have a lot of credit and most people are still reading xat as pretty town at this point. I think my arguments against him could have been shouted down pretty easily but they weren't. People kind of sat there on the sidelines and looked at it and let the discussion happen. I just think two mafia players could have shut me down right then and there and no one would be looking at xat today. Hiropro on the other hand has a very very obvious teammate. I went through his filter way back and show him again and again defending ditt. I don't have nearly the patience to substantiate this but my feeling is this is one of the most consistent alignments of any one player towards another so far in the game. I don't know how much dittert reciprocates back though. So I'm still on the fence here. Xat still seems mafia. However, this one time, his cost/benefit analysis of the lynches is I believe correct. There IS more upside to a hiro mafia flip as it gives us a go-ahead play on a lynch tomorrow or even a vigi shot tonight which would put us in a very strong winning position with all the time in the world to route out the remaining mafia player. If he flips town well he wasn't contributing too much anyway. Are we so far behind that we have to go for the double play or lose? 3-7 it is right now? That's not great, they only need one or at most two townies to come with them for a lynch on whomever they choose. Soooooo. Not sure. | ||
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##Unvote ##vote: Hiropro bye gg gl I hope when I come back we are winning | ||
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My biggest question is how is hiro so sure of xat? He seems 1000% sure. I am thinking about this On April 15 2012 08:41 GreYMisT wrote: Doctors and Doctorees are notified of a succsessful protect But nothing is coming to me right now that is really viable. So I trust hiro now obviously since we know he is town and he was dead set on xat and he was my top guy until late last night as well. I'm pretty much stuck on xat atm. | ||
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so scenarios like xatalos going for this risky/aggressive playstyle with high volume posting is very possible as is acro trying to come out and be a town leader. that they are just lurking seems not so likely anymore. I believe we have been manipulated into the poor situation we find ourselves in. | ||
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It is a weird post though I will give you that. | ||
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On April 18 2012 11:25 willz22912 wrote: , I have posted that a lot of you still find me as suspicious and posting bad cases would only continue to make me look bad, and posting cases on people who suspected me would only reek of OMGUS and be hard to substantiate. This is defensive reasoning for why I haven't contributed, but it's the truth unfortunately. So you were afraid to post because it would make you look guilty. But when you were up on the chopping block you were willing to sacrifice yourself to give us the "connection" info that your flip would give us. At one point you are willing to engage in fearless town play, and at another trying to avoid suspicion at all costs. How can you reconcile these two positions? @ Xatalos: You are not helpful when under scrutiny. You get very defensive. Look at page 6 of your filter. You go into "survival mode". Even pleading to my self interest to vote switch to save you. When others were about to be lynched, or were about to die they posted as much useful information as possible to help town before their death. Please respond to this allegation. Dittert I am waiting for his "big D3 post that we will all ignore". | ||
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##vote: dittert | ||
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On April 20 2012 03:23 funcmode wrote: I don't understand Yomi's vote... isn't the mass confusion play he's agreeing with Willz's point, who suggested voting Xatalos, not Dittert? I'm so confused right now... well like dittert said (most logical thing of the game so far) you can only vote him or KB at this point. why do this now? the day is 48 hours. why now? give me a break. I'm not going for this bs again. | ||
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On April 20 2012 04:35 willz22912 wrote: Again @ all town, I advise you to ignore Dittert's DT claim and either vote myself or Xatalos as originally intended for D3 and by Acrofales/HiroPro. If you think Dittert flipping scum would give weight to me being his teammate and grounds for a lynch D4, then you have your proof right now and can get rid of me instead first. Dittert's post all but incriminates us together, lynch me now then instead of lynching him. If you think my case against Xatalos has any merit, and can see that what I'm saying about Xatalos bussing Dittert his scum teammate, then vote him instead and when he does flip, you can see his true intentions, which is so much more information than what lynching Dittert would provide for town. If town gets a choice in lynching two almost certain Mafia, town should lynch the Mafia that would give town more information, since we can only lynch one at a time and we are not completely certain of a person's alignment until they flip, unlike Mafia who already know who their enemies are. You are saying if xat is mafia ditt is also mafia, but if ditt is mafia xat could still potentially be town? | ||
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##vote: xatalos just got home a bit ago no time to explain why, but it's you bud | ||
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I thought my biggest tell was vouching for willz for no reason and there was one other thing I was really regretting after I did it but I don't remember atm | ||
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Town could prob give you better input. | ||
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