3rd game here. Taking advantage of noob status!
EDIT: awww shucks, just read the post about total noobs first. Pick me anyway!
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Acrofales
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3rd game here. Taking advantage of noob status! EDIT: awww shucks, just read the post about total noobs first. Pick me anyway! | ||
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On April 10 2012 22:09 marvellosity wrote: With your good mafia play in DFM2, you have have outgrown this, Acrofales... /blush Two things, though: I have never played town (not that I'd object to playing scumteam forever: so far 2 for 2) and good play does not a non-noob make. I still don't know many of the things lots of vets seem to take for granted. Things like prplhz's breadcrumbing of his role flew way over my head (I just thought he was making BillMurray's roleclaim sound stronger than it was). | ||
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VT = Vanilla Townie. Basic town player with no special abilities. DT = Detective. KP = Kill Power. If accompanied by a number, the number of people that role/faction can kill at night. SK = Serial Killer. (not in this game) EBWOP = Edit By Way Of Post. Because editing is strictly forbidden, use this acronym in a doublepost to indicate an edit. EBWODP = Edit By Way of Double Post. Same as above. OMGUS = Oh My God U Suck. When someone accuses someone else based ONLY on the fact that that someone accused him first. WIFOM = Wine In Front Of Me. A reference to + Show Spoiler [this] + FoS = Finger of Suspicion. When you don't want to vote for someone, but want to make it very clear that he/she is under suspicion of being mafia. LYLO = LYnch or LOse. Situation in which the town has to lynch a mafia, in order to not lose the game. MYLO = MislYnch and LOse. Softcore version of the above: town can suffer a no-lynch, but a mislynch costs them the game (cannot happen in this game). | ||
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On April 12 2012 03:49 Snarfs wrote: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 03:30 Acrofales wrote: Might be a good idea to make a guide to the acronyms. I managed to google most of them, but it's a hard enough game without having to google some of the important acronyms. Here's a start: VT = Vanilla Townie. Basic town player with no special abilities. DT = Detective. KP = Kill Power. If accompanied by a number, the number of people that role/faction can kill at night. SK = Serial Killer. (not in this game) EBWOP = Edit By Way Of Post. Because editing is strictly forbidden, use this acronym in a doublepost to indicate an edit. EBWODP = Edit By Way of Double Post. Same as above. OMGUS = Oh My God U Suck. When someone accuses someone else based ONLY on the fact that that someone accused him first. WIFOM = Wine In Front Of Me. A reference to + Show Spoiler [this] + http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9f3GSA9yfc FoS = Finger of Suspicion. When you don't want to vote for someone, but want to make it very clear that he/she is under suspicion of being mafia. LYLO = LYnch or LOse. Situation in which the town has to lynch a mafia, in order to not lose the game. MYLO = MislYnch and LOse. Softcore version of the above: town can suffer a no-lynch, but a mislynch costs them the game (cannot happen in this game). There's a link at the bottom of the mafiascum newbie guide which leads here: MafiaScum Commonly Used Abbreviations Ah lol. Didn't know that Found their page on WIFOM, but didn't know they had all acronyms in a handy list. Ah well. Waste of effort then. | ||
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Luckily it wasn't a total loss, because I did get two things from it. The first is that Dittert made a really bad proposal and got it shot down. That makes Dittert either scum, or noobie. Seeing as we're all noobs, that doesn't mean much, but I have my eye on him now and want him to post something useful. The other thing I got is more serious. KharadBanar has been a paragon of recycling useless stuff. He does not take a firm stance on anything much at all (except maybe lurker lynches, which everybody and their blind grandma will say yes to). Whereas other people pointed out that Dittert's policy was just plain bad, KharadBanar decided that it was more important to show that it was technically difficult to accomplish: why bother? However, my biggest problem with KharadBanar was his "pressure" vote. It has been pointed out why his pressure vote was bad, but what was even worse was that, after he admitted that and Hiro posted anyway, he just laid off and unvoted. If Hiro had posted anything useful I would agree with that, but here is Hiro's response to the "pressure": On April 12 2012 09:57 HiroPro wrote: I'm not an idiot Kharad. Also, lol @ anyone who thinks Kharad's vote is random. He picked me because he wants to compare the response from last game to this game. And this entire conversation about how and when to pressure vote is pointless, considering it's already been done in this game. A completely fair response in my book, because there was no pressure to start with, but if Kharad actually wanted to pressure Hiro, NOW is the chance to lay it on and get a real response. You've made a ballsup, Hiro responded knowing you fubar'd it up. Now ask him some pointed questions and get a response from Hiro when he's actually under pressure. Instead, what does Kharad do? On April 12 2012 10:01 KharadBanar wrote: ...and this is actually a useful answer. Thank you Hiro. I'm not saying this is how it's done but I got the result I wanted in some way. ##unvote btw, I don't think it's that obvious to everyone that I picked you just for that. What? How was his answer in any way, shape, or form useful? All he said was "lololol wtf vote". So yeah, Kharad. Step it up. People say your play in Newbie VI was good. I want to see some of that play instead of all this nonsense. @Xatalos: of course I was quiet, I was asleep. | ||
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On April 12 2012 17:37 Xatalos wrote: Hmm. Acrofales, you say KharadBanar hasn't taken a firm stance, but neither have you - you just noticed a couple of potentially suspicious actions and left it at that. Why not pressure either Dittert or KharadBanar? Why no firm stance on anything? I agree with your points, but it's not very useful to just point out something and do nothing about it. It's early in the day. I have no clear scum reads yet. I find KharadBanar's posting to be suspicious. I was thinking of voting for him, but I want him to respond first. Let me reiterate: there are still 37 hours left in this day and I prefer to gather information rather than tunnel on one person. Here's what I think of the other goings on: Xatalos' ArcticFox case: I would say something about this, because I have an opinion, but I find it far more interesting to see what ArcticFox says about it. Dittert: I don't think his stupid idea was enough to label him scum off the bat. However, Dittert has appeared as a minor blip on my scumdar and I would like to hear what he has to say about the goings on in the thread. Dittert, if the day deadline were to be in 2 hours, who would you want to lynch and why? And just to make things completely clear. KharadBanar: stop shitting up the thread and start contributing. Why did you find Hiro's answer "useful"? Who do you think is scum and why? | ||
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On April 12 2012 18:58 Xatalos wrote: But the pressure is much stronger with vote+argument instead of just a vote (KharadBanar) or just an argument (Acrofales). So Acrofales, I encourage you to vote already. Your hesitation to vote only increases my suspicion of you, just like KharadBanar's empty voting increases my suspicion of him. A townie should never hesitate to vote. So while I agree that they need to respond, we won't necessarily get the answers we seek without the actual pressure of being lynched. I respectfully disagree. I am not VisceraEyes to randomly fling my vote around. I have two tools: my voice and my vote and I will be the judge of when to use one, the other or both. You're saying a townie should never be afraid to vote as if the reverse is suspicious: a townie should never not-vote. I think townies have every right not to vote when they feel there is no reason to. Currently, I see no reason to vote for KharadBanar or anybody else; and satisfying your paranoia is definitely not a reason. Don't worry though, when I feel sufficiently certain that someone is scum, I will let everybody know with both argument and a vote. | ||
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I like KharadBanar's response. It makes sense. I have not much else to say on this matter at the moment. While I like the discussion around ArcticFox, I want him himself to respond himself. He's in a different timezone, which means he's probably waking up sometime around now and I look forward to his post. Personally I don't have a scumread on him, but we'll see what he says. Now on to some more interesting stuff: Trumpetarn, I don't really like your posting style. You are parroting other people's opinions without adding anything to the discussion. This is a really easy trick for mafia to get on a bandwagon, without ever stepping into the spotlight. Another thing I don't like is this bit of your post: I do feel that this early in the game pressure with 2-3 votes against players probably will get anyone of us to get a bit stressed and maybe make us slip no matter if we're scum or not. This seems like a very easy way for you to pave the way for you covering any potential scumslips you make. Now I tend to think that scumslips are vastly overrated (and I have played two mafia games in which I hugely trumped up people's scumslips... as mafia), but that is not what you're saying. You're saying that we should not pressure too much, because it will make townies look like mafia. I vehemently disagree: pressure is a great tool for distinguishing the townie from the scum... just not by scumslips. So... I want to hear your opinion. In fact, I want you to tell me what you think about Xatalos, his playstyle and his case on Arcticfox. So far your vague suspicion of Xatalos has been your only real contribution so far, and I find it rather meagre. Tell us more about why you don't like his playstyle. @Kharad: I think that at the moment we have an excellent opportunity to get people to post content and get some reads. At some point we will have to focus on who should be lynched, but we still have over 30 hours of day left: plenty of time to just gather information. If people post (meaningful content), that allows us to get reads and have an informed lynch, rather than a mindless bandwagon. | ||
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I like ArcticFox's response to the case, which I thought was a trumped up load of poppycock. I just wanted to see Arctic's reply, because I had a null read on him and seeing him post in response was good. While scrolling to the end of this, I see Willz has pretty much destroyed the case already: the main problem with the case is that it is completely false meta. You are not ArcticFox and he is not you. Additionally I didn't find his references to blues in any way shape or form a way of fishing for blues. However, it was interesting to see his response. ArcticFox has acted townie so far. Something that I cannot possibly say about Dittert and while quite a few people are suspicious of him, I cannot understand why people have not jumped on his latest shitty post. + Show Spoiler [Dittert's absurd accusations] + On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). LaL IS a dumb policy and Willz pointing it out is good. Your RNG policy was dumb, and pointing that was good too. The butthurt OMGUS you're pulling here is pretty damned terrible. This is not a case against Willz, it's a half-arsed attempt to get out from under the pressure. I know I asked for reads... I just didn't know they'd be this bad. Dittert, please give me your opinion of Xatalos... more on him in a later post. Btw, to get things straight: we should absolutely be on the lookout for lies, but policy lynching them is absurd. If you catch someone lying, by all means jump on it, but lies go in the box with the rest of the evidence. They are not the be-all end-all and I can reference 2 games off the top of my head, where town lies served a purpose. ##FoS: Dittert So far Dittert. I will go through the rest of this random-accusation-town right now. | ||
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First things first. The air here is getting paranoid. If someone points out some suspect behaviour, address the content, however bad you think it is, not the person. This is especially addressed to Yomi, who will receive my second ##FoS: Yomi A Yomi or Dittert lynch at this point seems to me to be a decent option, but I don't want to get ahead of myself, because there's plenty of time left, and pretty much everything so far can be attributed to noob overreactions. It does mean I really want these two players to start participating actively in the game and trying to read other players: I know it is hard, but simply throwing a tantrum and OMGUSing whoever suspects you will get you my vote. So.. back to Yomi. Xatalos made a fluff call-out to lurkers. Lets note the timestamp: On April 12 2012 23:45 Xatalos wrote: 9 minutes later, Yomi appears! Now I know nothing about what timezone Yomi is in and it could be coincidence, but it is something I noticed. On April 12 2012 23:56 yomi wrote: It was especially noteworthy, because Dittert did the same thing, although that didn't quite catch my attention as much, because people have been calling Dittert out repeatedly. His post was a rather wishy washy explanation, but bad analysis is not scummy, it's just bad. At this point I didn't really note much, except for him appearing at a convenient time. However, his later posting made my spidersense tingle: ArcticFox makes a perfectly obvious observation that Yomi needs to clear up: On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum? And here is Yomi's response: On April 13 2012 01:30 yomi wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum? note arctic coming to the defense of dittert aka the most highly suspected player defending the second most highly suspected player. first big slip? not sure what to make of hiro accusing xatalos. I think the guy is kind of ridiculous but I think he (xatalos) is town. arctic/ditt/hiropro mafia 1/2/3 ? Not only does he not answer the question, but he double OMGUSs in a single post. He also seems to have forgotten completely about his only argumented scumread: Brood. I find this behaviour extremely suspicious. He later does answer the question, but I just really really REALLY dislike this post. On April 13 2012 01:44 yomi wrote: also hiropro just retaliates against anyone who accuses him and does not post anything substantive himself. Irony much? You have so far voted Dittert, which is understandable. You have posted a case on Brood and OMGUS'd HiroPro and ArcticFox. I also have not seen HiroPro exhibit the behaviour you accuse him of, but maybe I'm just dense. All of this can be explained by an overreacting newbie, but it is far too defensive for my taste, when nobody actually accused him of anything in particular. @Trumpetar: seems like a fair reply. I hope to see some of your reads. Your English is fine, don't be shy @Xatalos: I have gone through ArcticFox's filter again and I really don't see how his brief posts shooting down policy proposals made by other people are scummy. He posts his opinion (in a grand total of 2 posts) without trying to keep the discussion going. In contrast to KB and Brood who seemed to be happy making more, and larger, useless posts about policy. I also don't see the fixation on blues that you do, which reinforces my opinion that you are just trying too hard. I don't like the second part of your post at ALL. Why are you trying so hard to convince us you're town? Posting a bad case is just a bad case. Emphasizing how good, interesting and useful your posting the bad case was is trying to worm yourself into my good books. Seems scummy. And that is pretty much my summary of you. You alternate useful, townie posts, with posts that make me cringe and want to lynch you for the smarmy scumbag you are. So keep to posting cases and generating discussion: if you are contributing we will notice. No need to point it out. | ||
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On April 13 2012 04:19 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 04:18 Acrofales wrote: Because I am currently trying to figure out Xatalos: imallison, mind telling me why you think he's so townie? Mainly because he was the first person to go out of his way to voice his suspicions of someone. That strikes me as very town like play. That was spectacularly underwhelming. Posting a case on someone is not a tell of anything, plenty of reason for scum to post cases (and I should know, I spent most of GoT mafia blowing up townie's mistakes into cases). He probably has the largest filter of anybody and your reason for listing him as your strongest town read is that he was the first to post a case. I won't ask for more, but I hope not everybody is as gullible as that. | ||
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On April 13 2012 06:19 willz22912 wrote: I'm waiting on responses from at least half the thread, I'm not going to make a case based on this little posting, that's not going to convince anyone. I will have a case written up and posted at least 4-5 hours before deadline tomorrow(~1-2pm est), so that's enough time for discussion. Specifically, I'm calling out Yomi, BroodkingExe, HiroPro, imallinson, trumpetarm to post something, at least either their top town or scum read and their own opinions. I'm tired of seeing people pick on the easiest targets with little to no explanation. I think all our scum lists are quite similar at the moment. I have dittert as a scumspect and am not as suspicious of trumpetarm: I find dittert's few posts more suspect than trumpetarm's, who seems to at least be trying to contribute. BroodkingExe has posted very actively in the first few hours of the game and seriously shat up the thread, but I didn't really get a read. His latest post is a mix. On the one hand, he posts some analysis (mostly rehashed, but still, it's an opinion). On the other hand, he writes in bold letters that discussion of scumspects is bad for town. This is so utterly and blatantly wrong that it wasn't even worth responding to. At first I thought it was a scummy thing to say, but rethinking it, I kinda think it's probably just a noobie error who is alarmed at suspicions running wild. His vote for dittert is, imho neither here nor there. Dittert is in my top 3 scum and Broodking tries to offer some new reasons, which are pretty weak imho, but I don't think it's a mindless hop on the Dittert bandwagon. Summary: I have my eye on him, but am not in favour of lynching him yet. I'm also still on the fence about Imallison. I will have to take a good look at his filter (I did earlier and came up null, but he's posted more since). That makes my list: Dittert, Yomi and HiroPro. | ||
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On April 13 2012 06:49 HiroPro wrote: Dittert's posting is not that of mafia. He made a silly suggestion and then backed off it, much more indicative of inexperienced town. Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: Please tell me who you think is scummy and why? Read better. All I got from your contributions to this game is a really incoherent summary of Xatalos' scummy behaviour and a vote. If that is your only suspect I am unimpressed. What do you think of BroodkingExe? | ||
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On April 13 2012 06:54 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:49 Acrofales wrote: I think all our scum lists are quite similar at the moment. I have dittert as a scumspect and am not as suspicious of trumpetarm: I find dittert's few posts more suspect than trumpetarm's, who seems to at least be trying to contribute. Why do you say that trumpetarm's post contribute more than dittert's? All he's said was that the pressure votes were useless and that Xatalos may be town or sneaky mafia. Which, imho, is more than Dittert's post about Willz and RNG proposal. Lets be honest, both Dittert and Trumpetarm's filters are completely useless and they both have to step up their game. @Trumpetarn: if you had a gun and had to shoot someone right now. Who would it be and why? @Dittert: you have a strange opinion of a scummy player. I therefore want to hear your top 3 town reads (although I generally hate town lists, in this case it might be interesting). | ||
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On April 13 2012 07:08 BroodKingEXE wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:56 imallinson wrote: I think the votes so far are: Yomi (1): Kharad trumpetarm (1): imallinson Dittert (2): Broodking, Yomi Xatalos (1): Hiro vonKlaust (1): Xatalos This is what I am talking about. A Mafia could put their votes anywhere and change the tide of the vote. Dittert and trumpetarm please start to contribute to the discussion. Hiro I want to hear more about your vote against Xatalos In theory I agree with you. However, we are 25 hours away from the deadline. Relax. I do agree with a 12 hour soft deadline for voting to see where we stand. So 1PM CET tomorrow (13 hours from now). | ||
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HiroPro's posting is either scum or insultingly bad town. He trumps up random reasons for thinking someone is scummy, despite having done the exact same thing himself. When caught out his excuse is that he cannot look at timestamps. He moves his vote around without explanation and seems more interested in creating strife within town than finding scum. A decent analysis when I get back. I am no longer as firmly in the willz is town camp. The way he has been posting at night set my alarmbells a ringing. Will have to take a better look in a couple of hours. Sorry, that's all I have time for at the moment. Just wanted this out there. | ||
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So far I have FoS'd Dittert and Yomi. I am no longer as suspicious of Dittert as I find his participation during the night a bit better. I still don't understand his reads, but at least he seems to be trying to make reads and argue them. He also got Willz to post some interesting stuff, so I think there's better targets for now. That is not a freebie pass, Dittert. I agree with ArcticFox that you have to post more and explain your reads better. My cursory reading this morning made me very suspicious of Hiro. I am taking a closer look at his filter, I think he might be just newbie town, as I do not see a scum motive behind his reasoning. He goes in the Dittert category. Here are my findings: + Show Spoiler [HiroPro's "case"] + On April 13 2012 01:16 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 15:57 Xatalos wrote: + Show Spoiler + The person I want to lynch the most right now is: ArcticFox. Here is what I got from his filter so far: On April 12 2012 08:34 ArcticFox wrote: Let's not waste Day 1. Too many times I've seen people say it's not important. We can find out plenty as long as everyone posts. Please be active so we don't waste our first lynch on a bored townie. The sooner everyone posts, the sooner we can get to the real scumhunting. On the surface this looks like friendly advice to fellow townies, but this is EXACTLY the kind of posting I did on A Game of Thrones Mafia as a Mafia Framer. His attitude seems like he wants to appear useful, but he doesn't really say anything useful - the opposite of actual townies who want to be useful, but don't care as much about their appearance. The overall feel I get from this post is "please don't lynch me, I'm being useful!" On April 12 2012 08:58 ArcticFox wrote: I hope our blues this game are as clever as you were that game, KB. Discussion is good. Idle chat is not. As you newer people confirm, please post shortly after with your thoughts on these policies as well. First of all: why discuss about blue roles at all? This is the same mistake I did in A Game of Thrones Mafia - we kept talking about blue roles in the Mafia chat, so subconsciously I mentioned possibilities about the blue roles even in the normal thread. And what do you mean with "idle chat is not good"? So far this "idle chat" has been very useful (certainly much more useful than silence or the trolling/flaming we had in A Game of Thrones Mafia...). Also, you keep mentioning policies, which is something Mafia loves to do - you can appear somewhat useful without actually contributing anything. On April 12 2012 09:21 ArcticFox wrote: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:16 Dittert wrote: Not RNG lynch... RNG proposed lynch. I was trying to gauge people's reactions to things. If we RNG and hit scum, surely at least 2 people will jump up to defend that person or risk losing one of their own. If no one really cares about killing that person, they're probably town. Verrrrry WIFOM reasoning. Be careful of that. It sounds logical, but discussing motive rarely leads anywhere. What if scum decides to bus? What if someone jumps up to defend because they think RNG is silly, or they have a blue read on him? This line of reasoning leads nowhere fast, and it's best to ignore it. You're tripping my scum-o-meter pretty hard right now. Got any better suggestions? There he goes again, talking about blue roles. It's too bad it probably ends now after I mention this, but I would have wanted to see how many times he can talk about blue roles / blue reads during the game, since this is the second time already in only 7 hours... And if you think Dittert is Mafia, why not vote for him or even put any real pressure on him? It looks like you just want to fake pressure an obvious target (a suspiciously acting townie) or put some distance between yourself and a fellow Mafia (if he gets lynched, you can claim you "pushed for his lynch" all along). On April 12 2012 10:28 ArcticFox wrote: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 10:17 HiroPro wrote: LaL seems to be a standard play. I'm all for lynching liars above all else. It sets a good tone that we won't allow scum to get away with it either. What do you mean by this? You say that lynching lying townies scares scum? I don't follow. I would prefer not to have to policy lynch at all, but liars and lurkers is a good place to start if we don't have any solid scumreads by the end of Day 1. So in short -- more people should post so we have more information to go on and can avoid a policy lynch. You look like you want to make a policy lynch, since you keep talking about policies, but still try to appear as if you "want" to lynch a Mafia player (if something too obvious comes along and you have to bus your teammate). I got a pretty solid Mafia read already in just a matter of hours, so this discussion is definitely not "useless"... ##Vote: ArcticFox I don't like this case at all. You start off by saying ArticFox's posting reminds you of your own posting as mafia in AGOT - this has no relevance at all; ArticFox isn't you - meta from another game with someone else playing is an awful reason to think someone is mafia. And policy discussion that early on with very few people online is perfectly normal. Show nested quote + I have a hard time figuring out the 3 Mafia from this back-and-forth action, but if we manage to find even one today, it should make it easy to figure out the rest tomorrow. Why the sudden shift in tone? A few posts ago, you were 70 or 80 percent sure that ArticFox is mafia, in this same post you say that either yomi or Dittert is mafia, and yet at the same time you have a hard time figuring out who mafia is? You sound like a mafia member getting a bandwagon rolling and then jumping off before it crashes. ##Vote: Xatalos I agree that the ArcticFox case was bad. However, that does not make Xatalos scum. I pointed this out just before I went to bed. So far I was just unimpressed with Hiro's play. The problem came during the night, when he decided to switch his votes to vonKlaust: + Show Spoiler [Voteswitch] + On April 13 2012 07:11 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 07:01 Xatalos wrote: Just my luck... Right as I post, HiroPro decides to suddenly post. Well, what do you think about my latest post, HiroPro? Am I still your only Mafia read? I like the case against vonKlaust a hell of a lot better than the one you made against ArticFox. The whole "i'm confused thing in the beginning is slightly scummy, but the bigger thing against vonKlaust for me is that he that he says that Xatalos has "several potential scumslips", is his prime suspect, but then doesn't vote for him. Someone who doesn't back up their scum reads with a vote is looking around for support too much to be town. ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust Now I have to say that I am not a big fan of the case Xata made on vonKlaust either, but basically we have Hiro's suspicions of vonKlaust here: 1. vonKlaust applied pressure without voting. According to Hiro voting for your prime suspect is mandatory and not voting is scummy. This logic is bonkers. Voting is just a tool and so is not-voting. I have pointed this out a number of times in the thread so far. You have a different opinion? Fine, but at least take away from this that it is not a scumtell. If you want proof, I urge you to look at Xatalos' play on D1 in GoT mafia: he was perfectly happy to throw his vote all ways at once (and that was seen as a scumtell). A vote is a TOOL, not something you have to use when you are suspicious. The only thing you HAVE to do with your vote is use it once a day to decide the lynch. Everything else is optional. 2. vonKlaust thought Xatalos was town, but then switched and thought he was scum. Switching your suspicions is not a scumtell either. It is simply being open to new evidence. We continue reading: On April 13 2012 08:03 HiroPro wrote: Because the reason for me suspecting him was his bad case..... Obviously if he posts an actual good case, he doesn't appear as mafia to me. And the case against you has merit. I would also still like to know why you never voted for Xatalos if he was your strongest mafia read. Mafia members can't make good cases? That's bonkers. Mafia members can often make better cases than town, because they don't have to take into account that the person they are accusing might be town. They already know he's town (or in the case of bussing a buddy, scum) and can look through someone's filter with the most malevolent intentions. Townies, on the other hand, try to hunt scum without being malevolent and disregard things that, if blown up, look like giant scumslips. That's why it is important to make up your own mind, rather than just sheeping other people's opinions. Most of the rest of his posts follow a similar reasoning. It is just plain wrongheaded and illogical. He jumps to conclusions about how mafia plays, which are almost invariably wrong. However, when reading through it all, I don't see malicious intent, just ignorance. HiroPro, I want you to give me something other than suspicions of vonKlaust. Please tell me who else you think is scum, with reasons. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
Part I - The Non-Contribution His posts on April 12 can be summarized as this: shooting down policies (fine). While I personally find this productive, there's no reason scum would not take it upon himself to do this. It's a risk-free way of sounding like a townie. We do note that he has promised a more aggressive meta than his play in Newbie V. I took a (brief) look at his filter in that game and found him to be quite open with his opinions and posting many cases against who he thought was scum. So far I have seen nothing like this kind of play. It has been far more defensive than anything else. The first post that I didn't like came here: + Show Spoiler [Willz' shooting down of BroodKin…] + On April 13 2012 06:03 willz22912 wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 05:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: I'm going to vote for Dittert. So far his only attempt at an accusation is wiliz. He states that wiliz may be lurking or working. We have far more solid cases than a lurker right now. His second argument makes sense, but he is missing the point. Wiliz thinks Dittert is a bad townie, usually bad townies are Mafia. + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). He also flat out claims a lie, that could've easily been a mistake (his post against yomi). He doesn't seem to want to follow the way of the town (we have come to the conclusion that we aren't going to policy lynch). Overall I think he needs to put in better input for the amount of gunslinging he is doing. ##Vote: Dittert What is this vote? You're going to vote him because he's a bad town and that's "usually mafia" ? Dittert's case against me is mostly OMGUS, it has no basis, and I don't need any defending and you don't need any other explanation other than he made a really bad case against me? Put more effort in your reasoning, Dittert is way too easy of a target, and I stand by my opinion that he's just a newbie town that had his idea shut down really hard and is scrambling to come up with something to contribute. Post your opinion on anyone else besides Dittert for your top scum picks, don't tunnel on him. What Willz does here is not contribute. Everybody can see that Dittert's case is bad. BroodKing is not defending Willz, he is accusing Dittert of inventing a shitty case to get out from under quite a bit of suspicion. Willz's stance here is an idea of what is to come: an extremely hostile play to shut people up and a rabid defense of Dittert. Sidenote: sometimes a bad case is just a bad case. Sometimes it's not. Everybody can make up their own mind and voice their opinion. willz' firing up into a rage over BroodKing here set my spidersense tingling. His only contribution with reads on people comes here: On April 13 2012 06:19 willz22912 wrote: Top town candidate so far besides myself is probably Xatalos, although his case against ArcticFox is highly misguided. There were no serious attempts to catch any blues in a blueslip(inadvertently outing their role through something they said). The discussion on policy lynching is now since dead, and no one has tried to bring it up again. Bringing a case on him based on this + his meta thinking behind of what Mafia would do based on his experiences from GoT makes for a fairly lackluster case. As long as he doesn't tunnel himself onto a single person, I'm fine with his activity and his reasoning otherwise (I also convinced him to take a look at imallinson which he overlooked) I'm waiting on responses from at least half the thread, I'm not going to make a case based on this little posting, that's not going to convince anyone. I will have a case written up and posted at least 4-5 hours before deadline tomorrow(~1-2pm est), so that's enough time for discussion. Specifically, I'm calling out Yomi, BroodkingExe, HiroPro, imallinson, trumpetarm to post something, at least either their top town or scum read and their own opinions. I'm tired of seeing people pick on the easiest targets with little to no explanation. This is just really bad. He calls out the easiest targets in the thread as suspect of being scum... and then says it's bad play to call out the easiest targets with little to no explanation. He was being pressured into giving his reads and throws out the easiest names around (with the exception of Dittert, who he has taken into protective custody), with no explanation. Even I was duped into thinking this was a somewhat useful contribution, but really, it's not. It is a throwaway list by a scumster. Interesting here: On April 13 2012 06:40 willz22912 wrote: EBWOB : "I personally am giving a lot of people the benefit of the doubt for being a newb or having their first game." should be the correct sentence. Acrofales, what do you want me to say currently before they respond? I see 5 lurkers and I could pick any of them for various reasons, I'm willing to be patient and catch them slipping. If you want to question me, ask me my opinion on one of your own reads. Why should I be the only one contributing, my opinion is no more important than any of yours because this is a team-game. I can't win the game single-handedly, in fact I'm pretty sure I'm going to be the first person killed by Mafia, so I have to make the cases I make ironclad, and make sure of my reads before I die. Well, if you had actually been contributing, this would be a valid point. However, so far you have seemed very reluctant to give anything away at all. 4-5 hours before the deadline is a perfect time to trump up a case on whoever is a likely town to be bandwagoned. At the moment I would much rather lynch you than one of our lurkers. Part II - The Dittert Controversy Part I was something I noticed upon going through his filter. Part II was what made me want to take a good look at his filter in the first post. Particularly this post: On April 13 2012 10:13 willz22912 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: Okay, time to post. As for lurking, I was at work, where they expect me to... do work and not play TL mafia. I'll be at work tomorrow too. And Saturday! Just FYI, I will actually miss the voting cut-offs due to work, so don't expect any last-minute shenanigans from me. As for my thoughts, I'm still on the willz22912 kick. He has my ##FoS. Here's what I think went down: He saw my bad play and jumped on it, trying for a mislynch. I have explained already here: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). After that, yomi enters the discussion: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 11:43 yomi wrote: Hi I just got back from lifting. I can't think of a more pointless discussion than the one we are having now. It is being led by Broodking, Kharadbanar, and Dittert. I have the most confidence in willz and to a slightly lesser extent arctic. I'm not sure what we SHOULD be discussing since no investigation abilities have gone out yet, but I doubt this is it. Getting people to talk just for the sake of it is great but my fear is that this discussion will bleed into day 2 when we will have some actual information. It struck me that he appeared to be jumping on the willz and AFox bandwagon. At this point, I was already suspicious of those two, so yomi siding with them made me suspicious of him as well. Surely though, he couldn't be so dumb as to list out the mafia team right there, could he? Realizing I had no way of figuring that out (maybe it's so dumb is clever, etc.), I let it be. The next post that caught my attention was this one: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 01:30 yomi wrote: On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum? note arctic coming to the defense of dittert aka the most highly suspected player defending the second most highly suspected player. first big slip? not sure what to make of hiro accusing xatalos. I think the guy is kind of ridiculous but I think he (xatalos) is town. arctic/ditt/hiropro mafia 1/2/3 ? I think this was a ploy to distance yomi from AF and to increase the distance between AF and myself. Seeing as how at the time there was an "AF might be mafia" sentiment floating through the thread, this was a good way to link me to scum. Note how even though he lists the 1/2/3 mafia as AF/me/hiropro, he doesn't vote for #1, he votes for me. As for willz, I found this post intriguing: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:19 willz22912 wrote: Top town candidate so far besides myself is probably Xatalos, although his case against ArcticFox is highly misguided. Why would you refer to yourself as the top town candidate unless you wanted to reinforce this belief in people's minds? No one is even remotely accusing you of being scum except for crazy ol' Dittert with his RNG ideas. This seems scummy to me. After all that, I'm ready to cast my vote. ##Vote: Yomi First off, this is not even a little bit an OMGUS vote, even though yomi did vote for me. I'm voting for Yomi over willz for several reasons. 1. I don't think anybody else will vote for willz, so essentially a vote for him is like a vote for Ralph Nader. It may be a good idea, but it's a wasted vote. 2. Everyone else seems to think he's town, as far as I can tell. With this being my first game, I admit that my reads may be off. As far as AFox, people have been discussing X's case against him to death, with no real conclusions being drawn. Yomi, on the other hand, has not really posted anything of value. His filter is more or less a repeated cry of "yes, I'm posting valid things! I shouldn't have to explain myself!" His vote is currently for me, which due to my lack of posting, is about the "safest" vote you can make. As for my accusation that Yomi was lying, he did in fact make a statement that can be proved factually false. He had the tools at his disposal to check the facts before he posted. I don't know what else you want to consider "a lie." What you do with that information is up to you. I'm not advocating we policy lynch Yomi because of this "factually incorrect statement." I'm advocating we lynch him because his behavior is consistent with my understanding of scummy behavior. Acrofales asked for my top 3 town reads, so I'll include those as well. 1. KB - His first vote on HiroPro was clearly to try and get a read on HiroPro's alignment. Mafia don't need to get reads on people's alignment, they already have them. He also did not jump on the "Dittert must be scum for his RNG idea" bandwagon. If he was scum, this would have been an ideal opportunity to try and frame an innocent. 2. Brood - He's reasonably active, but it's more like a scattershot than a laser. He's asking questions of everyone with seemingly no real agenda. Even though I think Brood is town, I also think he says some really stupid shit. For example: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 05:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: Townies have no need to duck responsibility, their innocence will prevent them from being lynched. Mafia on the other hand will use their newbie status to duck responsibility if they make a bad read Really? Your innocence will save you? Tell that to the victims of the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem Witch trials. 3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town. Okay, discuss! Why are you continuing to waste discussion trying to drive a vote on me. I'm not even pushing for your lynch, what are you trying to accomplish? You won't even name anyone else suspicious besides myself and Yomi (who already is lurking and has a vote on him) You need to back off and stop tunneling on me already unless you've got more proof of my intentions? BroodKing already pointed out what's wrong with this. It is an extremely defensive reaction to someone who nobody is taking seriously (sorry Dittert, but you really need to step up your posting). He is trying to drive a vote on you, because he thinks you're scum. Your overreaction in defense makes me think that he may be right. If you're going to be at work and you're going to miss the voting cutoff, why should town go along with your cases. You won't be around to support them and refute accusations, you basically say that you're going to be inactive and giving yourself an excuse to lurk, this is unacceptable. You are playing really poorly for town, I've given you numerous chances to prove yourself but now you're just being useless and sidetracking discussion. I'm going to stop defending you against people trying to lynch you. You are playing a very insidious game. In the first paragraph you shoot down Dittert's opinion without even responding. Now you try to make it out as if you are protecting him from the evil mislynch. I am not yet sold on Dittert's innocence or scummyness, but this behaviour is scummy: either you are protecting the poor noobie townie (for no good reason other than to look good), or you're protecting your scumbuddy. Two things I can't think of a town reason for doing: we don't coddle noobs, we leave them to improve or die. You also have no opinion on the numerous people who are trying to lynch you? And voting Yomi but saying "no it isn't OMGUS" doesn't exactly explain yourself, without any good reasoning you're still making essentially an OMGUS vote on him as well as me. What is this "lie" that you claim can be proven to be false and how does it on have any bearing on whether Yomi is scum or not? For your town reads, really, KB is at the top of your list because he didn't jump to vote you? Also, what's with the random vote of confidence for imallinson, "he seems normal?" Really? What about his behavior that Xatalos and I commented on? Now that you've pulled Dittert's teeth it's easy to ask him for his opinions: nobody will listen anyway! You also twist his words. He actually gave some decent reasons for voting Yomi and it didn't read very OMGUSy to me. I agree that his town reads made me boggle. BroodKing points out quite a bit of this. How does Willz respond? Not to the content. No, with a big fat OMGUS: + Show Spoiler [ Oh My God, BroodKing, yoU Suck!!!] + On April 13 2012 10:36 willz22912 wrote: So far you've been just following people's thoughts and not posting your own or your own reasoning. Be more transparent.BroodKingEXE, I've taken a look through your filter (and I suggest everyone do the same) you have very little constructive posts of substance, and you wasted the beginning of D1 talking about policies. You keep harping on the importance for town to have narrowed it down to 1-2 candidates very early, why should we give Mafia the opportunity to blend in and bandwagon on a likely lynch? I also highly disagree with this line of thinking: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:47 BroodKingEXE wrote: On April 13 2012 06:44 willz22912 wrote: On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote: We have to be careful about releasing scumlists though, as they give the mafia can use them to guide their KP. What do you mean by this? The idea of sharing scumlists is to build a consensus among town to reach a majority to successfully lynch someone. If multiple people think someone is scummy, there is a reason, and should be shared, even if it's misguided or incorrect because it builds/causes discussion. Mafia look at the scum lists and figure out who has the best sense of who they are. They then kill them You are trying to dissuade town from being transparent and posting their thoughts for fear of being a target by Mafia. I had this opinion too, why share your information so openly so early, but I learned from Gonzaw in Aperture Mafia that it's better to give 100% effort as town no matter if you die, in order to help the rest of the town figure out who's scum. Transparency and an active town is key to winning, you seem to be against this for fear of your own mortality, this is bad for town. So far you have managed to post numerous times about random things and calling out the lurkers, but you have yet to support any of your actions with evidence. You initially vote for Dittert and now you are willing to suddenly drop the vote based off 1 post? You are also willing to change your mind to Yomi, another candidate with multiple people voting for him and an easy lynch? What parts of his post do you specifically agree with when you say [quote= BroodKingEXE]You've put up some pretty good information up, so I'm going to take you off. Sure, BroodKing's filter isn't the best out there, but he finally brings up a decent point and you respond by deflecting it. Classic scum play. The non-contribution continues here with more muffling of Dittert's voice: On April 13 2012 11:37 willz22912 wrote: How am I supposed to convince him he's on the right track, let him lynch me? How are we supposed to prove the alignment of each other? I can't prove to him that I'm town, I can't prove for everyone else with 100% certainty what alignment he is. Huh? Lets reconstruct: 1. Dittert is town and has a (rather harmless) case on willz 2. Willz goes apeshit defensive over it and tries to smother Dittert with the blanket of protection 3. Dittert keeps posting 4. Willz throws up his arms and says "what can I do?! Let him lynch me?" This is nonsense. Firstly, there was no real danger you were going to get lynched here. You could just have gone through his case and dismantled it paragraph by paragraph. It would have been rather easy. Instead you play the dramaqueen card. WTF sir, wtf?! The only people who know for sure are Mafia and a DT if we have one, but the DT can't use his ability until nighttime, so we can't even rely on that. What are you trying to show or prove by posting this? Adding extra wifom. Even DT checks aren't guaranteed. There may be a framer and/or a godfather. The only people who are confirmed are dead people. I'm trying to get Dittert to drop his suspicions on me, he continues to keep them and is progressively adding additional people into this conspiracy he alone sees. He thinks the Mafia team consists of myself, ArcticFox, and Yomi. He claims this because of his original theory against me (that no one else is willing to agree with), my actions towards defending ArcticFox from Xatalos and me calling out Yomi to post more? Town needs to defend other town from mis-lynches if they feel it is a mistake. I don't particularly need to believe in Dittert, but I don't need him being lynched by everyone else because he was an easy lynch. Do you not agree with this? Do you not want someone to defend you if you are town? You are continuing to propose poor decisions on the part of town, adding to my suspicions of you. Trolololol. If you wanted Dittert to drop his case you would address the case instead of trying to smother it. It's a pretty bad case, so it shouldn't have been that difficult. Now I want you to address this case, or will you try to smother me too? Also @ BroodKingEXE, where's the response to this: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 10:42 willz22912 wrote: On April 13 2012 10:29 BroodKingEXE wrote: On April 13 2012 10:13 willz22912 wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2012 09:23 Dittert wrote: Okay, time to post. As for lurking, I was at work, where they expect me to... do work and not play TL mafia. I'll be at work tomorrow too. And Saturday! Just FYI, I will actually miss the voting cut-offs due to work, so don't expect any last-minute shenanigans from me. As for my thoughts, I'm still on the willz22912 kick. He has my ##FoS. Here's what I think went down: He saw my bad play and jumped on it, trying for a mislynch. I have explained already here: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). After that, yomi enters the discussion: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 11:43 yomi wrote: Hi I just got back from lifting. I can't think of a more pointless discussion than the one we are having now. It is being led by Broodking, Kharadbanar, and Dittert. I have the most confidence in willz and to a slightly lesser extent arctic. I'm not sure what we SHOULD be discussing since no investigation abilities have gone out yet, but I doubt this is it. Getting people to talk just for the sake of it is great but my fear is that this discussion will bleed into day 2 when we will have some actual information. It struck me that he appeared to be jumping on the willz and AFox bandwagon. At this point, I was already suspicious of those two, so yomi siding with them made me suspicious of him as well. Surely though, he couldn't be so dumb as to list out the mafia team right there, could he? Realizing I had no way of figuring that out (maybe it's so dumb is clever, etc.), I let it be. The next post that caught my attention was this one: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 01:30 yomi wrote: On April 13 2012 01:00 ArcticFox wrote: EBWOP: Also for Yomi -- why is the vote for Dittert if you're sure Brood's scum? note arctic coming to the defense of dittert aka the most highly suspected player defending the second most highly suspected player. first big slip? not sure what to make of hiro accusing xatalos. I think the guy is kind of ridiculous but I think he (xatalos) is town. arctic/ditt/hiropro mafia 1/2/3 ? I think this was a ploy to distance yomi from AF and to increase the distance between AF and myself. Seeing as how at the time there was an "AF might be mafia" sentiment floating through the thread, this was a good way to link me to scum. Note how even though he lists the 1/2/3 mafia as AF/me/hiropro, he doesn't vote for #1, he votes for me. As for willz, I found this post intriguing: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:19 willz22912 wrote: Top town candidate so far besides myself is probably Xatalos, although his case against ArcticFox is highly misguided. Why would you refer to yourself as the top town candidate unless you wanted to reinforce this belief in people's minds? No one is even remotely accusing you of being scum except for crazy ol' Dittert with his RNG ideas. This seems scummy to me. After all that, I'm ready to cast my vote. ##Vote: Yomi First off, this is not even a little bit an OMGUS vote, even though yomi did vote for me. I'm voting for Yomi over willz for several reasons. 1. I don't think anybody else will vote for willz, so essentially a vote for him is like a vote for Ralph Nader. It may be a good idea, but it's a wasted vote. 2. Everyone else seems to think he's town, as far as I can tell. With this being my first game, I admit that my reads may be off. As far as AFox, people have been discussing X's case against him to death, with no real conclusions being drawn. Yomi, on the other hand, has not really posted anything of value. His filter is more or less a repeated cry of "yes, I'm posting valid things! I shouldn't have to explain myself!" His vote is currently for me, which due to my lack of posting, is about the "safest" vote you can make. As for my accusation that Yomi was lying, he did in fact make a statement that can be proved factually false. He had the tools at his disposal to check the facts before he posted. I don't know what else you want to consider "a lie." What you do with that information is up to you. I'm not advocating we policy lynch Yomi because of this "factually incorrect statement." I'm advocating we lynch him because his behavior is consistent with my understanding of scummy behavior. Acrofales asked for my top 3 town reads, so I'll include those as well. 1. KB - His first vote on HiroPro was clearly to try and get a read on HiroPro's alignment. Mafia don't need to get reads on people's alignment, they already have them. He also did not jump on the "Dittert must be scum for his RNG idea" bandwagon. If he was scum, this would have been an ideal opportunity to try and frame an innocent. 2. Brood - He's reasonably active, but it's more like a scattershot than a laser. He's asking questions of everyone with seemingly no real agenda. Even though I think Brood is town, I also think he says some really stupid shit. For example: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 05:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: Townies have no need to duck responsibility, their innocence will prevent them from being lynched. Mafia on the other hand will use their newbie status to duck responsibility if they make a bad read Really? Your innocence will save you? Tell that to the victims of the Spanish Inquisition or the Salem Witch trials. 3. imallinson - He seems normal? I don't really have a strong inclination for anyone in this third town spot. He asks for KB's read on Hiro, which seems helpful to the town. Okay, discuss! Why are you continuing to waste discussion trying to drive a vote on me. I'm not even pushing for your lynch, what are you trying to accomplish? You won't even name anyone else suspicious besides myself and Yomi (who already is lurking and has a vote on him) You need to back off and stop tunneling on me already unless you've got more proof of my intentions? If you're going to be at work and you're going to miss the voting cutoff, why should town go along with your cases. You won't be around to support them and refute accusations, you basically say that you're going to be inactive and giving yourself an excuse to lurk, this is unacceptable. You are playing really poorly for town, I've given you numerous chances to prove yourself but now you're just being useless and sidetracking discussion. I'm going to stop defending you against people trying to lynch you. You also have no opinion on the numerous people who are trying to lynch you? And voting Yomi but saying "no it isn't OMGUS" doesn't exactly explain yourself, without any good reasoning you're still making essentially an OMGUS vote on him as well as me. What is this "lie" that you claim can be proven to be false and how does it on have any bearing on whether Yomi is scum or not? For your town reads, really, KB is at the top of your list because he didn't jump to vote you? Also, what's with the random vote of confidence for imallinson, "he seems normal?" Really? What about his behavior that Xatalos and I commented on? This whole post reeks of scum to me. "Why are you continuing to waste discussion": well there is no such thing as wasted discussion if it is an accusation. If he thinks you are scum he has the right to that opinion. The opinion of every town member here (except mafia) is important. "I'm not even pushing for your lynch", so the only time we are allowed to challenge you is if you are attacking us? The second paragraph is pretty bad you are flat out telling him to stop talking and that his opinion is worthless, this is very anti-town. It doesn't matter if he can't defend it others will analyze his post and make according conclusions of their own. Okay, let's waste some time then since we're both here. Do you think I'm scum, and do you agree with Dittert's suspicion of me? If so, please post why. I don't care about your opinion if you do nothing to support it, POST EVIDENCE. If you really think I'm scum, then go ahead and make a case. I'm trying to lead town to avoid lynching Dittert and he keeps posting things that will continue to get him lynched. Also what is this supposed to mean? The opinion of every town member here (except mafia) is important. So how do you know who's mafia and who's opinion to ignore? Scumslipping perhaps?This is a team based game, we need to be working together, I want to work with him, but if he's going to continue being suspicious of me, I'm going to write him off as well as his opinions. You continue to dodge the question, do you seriously believe I am Mafia, if so, WHY. Don't keep posting comments on my posts if you're not going to do anything with them. How am I supposed to know who's really town and who's really Mafia, the answer is I don't. But I've seen mistakes like Dittert's play before, and I'm trying to convince others to ignore it, but if you've read the thread, Dittert was the #1 target for many people for his rng lynch proposal, and then for his followup case on me. I'm trying to get him to stop so he stops accruing suspicion, if I was Mafia, why wouldn't I let him continue to clog up the thread and then lynch him for being so suspicious like everyone else wanted to? This is quite an unfair question: he stated one post of yours was scummy, you dodged his post with an OMGUS and respond that you want him to post a case when he hasn't really accused you of being mafia at all. Here, I'll do it for him. ##vote: Willz22912 I challenge everybody to read through Willz filter twice: once when you "know" he's town and once when you "know" he's mafia. I guarantee that only the mafia one makes much sense. | ||
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On April 13 2012 18:08 Xatalos wrote: So it looks like you think HiroPro is just a bad townie, Acrofales? What about my case on imallinson then? And what exactly was bad about my case on vonKlaust? I don't understand why he tries to act all confused, yet he seems to think I'm probably Mafia, without presenting any reasoning for his suspicion. Verdict's still out on imallison. I will look at your case in more detail, together with his filter, later. I don't consider him a high priority at the moment. If people really want to lynch him, I'll take a better look, but for now I want people focused on Willz, and to a lesser extent Yomi. The reason I didn't like your vonKlaust case was because the noob card can have two explanations: scum using the noob defense, or an actual noob having no clue what to do in the game. I read through vonKlaust's filter and all I really got was the feeling of someone being genuinely confused by the game. Could be that he's a great actor, but I was inclined to believe him. The "confused/newbieness" was the only real point in your case. I agree that it's not good play. I just don't see any scum agenda in there. I also thought that he was doing a good job of pricking through bullshit (which does not make him town, but at least makes him useful). I found his defense to your and HiroPro's cases sufficient. He pointed out the scummy part of your post so far. It set my alarmbells tingling too (as I pointed out earlier), but I disagree with his case. I like that he's starting to post his reads with reasoning and is vocal in his defense. I am opposed to a vonKlaust lynch. | ||
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Brb, reading his case and his defense. | ||
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I have no time to finish my analysis. I like willz's defense, but have not read yomi's stuff yet. I am sticking with this afternoon's vote because tipsy+rushed makes for a bad voteswitch. If willz dies and he's town the so be it, I'll deal with the flak tomorrow. Switching now is just too much of a risk to take. Fridays are bad days for day endings. | ||
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However, all of the goings-on yesterday have not cleared Willz nor Yomi in my mind. I find Dittert's post after the flip to be incredibly suspect too. I will post a better analysis just before the day deadline, so as not to help mafia in choosing their kill. @Xatalos: if you actually looked at GoT mafia you would've seen I was pretty drunk on that friday too, lol. The only difference was that I came home in the evening and this time we went out afterwards for dinner + more drinks. I don't like what happened and wished I could've been here, but in the end I am not sure I would've acted any differently. I also see that my post was a bit ambiguous: I found willz's (initial) defense okay, but found his case on broodking lacking in substance. Of course, other people saw that and the reason broodking got lynched had nothing to do with willz's case anyway. I don't find the possible presence of a mafia framer a good reason to not add a DT list. The framer will do what he does, and so will the DT. My giving a helping hand @blues: I made a list, but found my advice to be so obvious that I don't think you should need it. I just want to urge you to use your own reads together with Incognito's advice for playing a blue role, which if you haven't read, you really should: clicky. Vigis: if you are unsure your shot will help town, hold onto it for N2. | ||
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Breadcrumbing: hiding a very short description of your action in your post can be done in the following manner: first letter of every sentence, first letter of every paragraph, first letter of every word in a sentence (hard). Encoding it in random jibberish as if you're angry and giving the decypher key later. USE YOUR IMAGINATION: e.g. if you now post a string of random jibberish, everybody and their dog will know it's a breadcrumb for something uejkaddsaa You want to leave a trail that nobody can follow until you point out the key, at which point it is suddenly obvious (the more obvious after the key, the better). Also: don't breadcrumb your role, breadcrumb your actions. Ways NOT to do it: MrZentor's block of code in GoT mafia (too obvious). Example of good breadcrumbs: Snarfs and prplhz in DFM2. Ignore my breadcrumbs in GoT mafia, because I was scum and didn't have to worry about mafia poking through my blatantly obvious crumbs. If you don't feel up to breadcrumbing, keep your info to yourself. The only action that *might* be worth revealing is a vig shot, and imho, that is unnecessary too. | ||
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The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay? | ||
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[Acro's nightly reads Part I: the usual suspects 1. Willz + Show Spoiler + I would have been one of the first to say Willz is probably town, if BroodKing had flipped scum. Unfortunately, BroodKing being town makes this a helluva lot more complicated. His case on BroodKing didn't convince me yesterday, but I was tipsy and in a rush. ArcticFox and KB poked holes in it pretty effectively, so we don't have to rehash that. The question is: was it just a bad case by town, or a ploy by mafia to get his head out of a noose? When I left yesterday evening I was left yesterday evening I was quite liking Willz's defense. He was calm and answered people's points. He even adopted an unusual defense to my case, which was: he's right, I apologise and intend to improve. Which is something I don't think scum would dare to do. Also, this sounds very sincere: + Show Spoiler [Willz' defense] + On April 14 2012 03:16 willz22912 wrote: Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 03:06 KharadBanar wrote: On April 14 2012 02:55 willz22912 wrote: @ KharadBanar You're really going to assume that this is a giant ploy by Mafia to bus me so Dittert gains credibility? I find that to be totally without basis and completely WIFOM on what Mafia would do. Fine, don't exclude it from your thinking, but do you really honestly believe that is the most likely scenario here? What about that we're both town and it's a mis-lynch, that is not likely at all to you? Why are you associating that Dittert and I are both Mafia in your minds so strongly? You've posted in the past about your suspicions about Dittert, but this is the first time you've linked us together as the Mafia team, and that logic is absurd and full of WIFOM. Also, you post holes in my case about BroodKingEXE but you seem to gloss over the correlation between 8. and 9. So you're willing to let him slide for admitting that he saw nothing suspicious or wrong about anything else, but when Acrofales makes his case, he's allowed to go from 0 suspicion to voting me? So again, BroodKingEXE is not willing to make his own case, but he will eagerly follow anothers lead? Does this not strike you as scummy? You also think the Acrofales case on me is the key point in my demise, okay, I will go write a rebuttal to that now. About the bus: I don't have 100% scum reads on both you and Dittert. The fact that you're my strongest reads doesn't mean there is not actually a higher possibility of only one of you being scum, where this isn't a bus but either a scum member accusing a townie or a townie being right in his speculation. I just see a high possibility of there being a scum between the two of you. If you manage to explain your motivations behind the things Acrofales pointed out about you, I'd probably be willing to take my vote off you, because yomi and HiroPro then seem more scummy to me at this point, so please go ahead. Can you be more specific about what you want me to explain? Acrofales case is really long and I don't know what exactly you're looking for. I'd like to be as transparent as I can even if I still die, because I know this will help town. Please respond with what you wish to know and I will answer as best I can. I can already say that I have not played nearly as well as I thought, and I agree with my hypocrisy in calling for transparency yet holding onto my own opinions. Other than that part of his post, I was overly defensive against Dittert because he wouldn't leave me alone, that got me angry and asking him why he keeps insisting that I'm Mafia without reinforcing his case when I asked him what I have done to draw his suspicions. Wouldn't you be annoyed at someone if they were saying you were calling for their mis-lynch when I did nothing of the sort, and that was the basis of his original argument and the one he just used? That is a flat out lie, yet he seems to not realize it himself, then he goes on about how his RL is important and he has no time to play this game as much as others. Fine, RL obviously takes precedence, but that means in his limited time playing Mafia, he won't switch off accusing me constantly, he won't look at anyone else, but I can't call him out on it because he doesn't have enough time, that's part of why I was angry as well. However, his play rapidly deteriorated into martyring himself (not a tell, just unpleasant). He claims he continued to provide town with all the reads he had, but that was not much. The vague suspicion of KB in his BroodKing case. Other than that: + Show Spoiler [Willz' reads at the end of D1] + On April 14 2012 02:33 willz22912 wrote: Xatalos, you may agree with the case against me, but please correct this statement here: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 23:39 Xatalos wrote: Acrofales, I looked at Willz's filter and I agree something is off about him. It's weird, because initially he was my strongest town read (replaced by you later), but his later posts have been more and more suspicious. ArcticFox and imallinson addressed my cases against them by calmly finding the holes in my logic, but Willz didn't actually respond to Dittert's (somewhat weak) accusations - instead he chose to start an OMGUS war against Dittert ("why do you want to lynch me, I didn't want to lynch you before, but now I do, because you want to lynch me!"). He has also been saying everyone should be transparent, but he himself has been the opposite of transparent. Why would a townie indeed want to hide his opinions so much? I still don't want to lynch Dittert, I still believe he is a newbie town and he will be very chagrined by the alignment I flip. I did not really start the OMGUS war, because I see that the original basis for Dittert's case against me was that he thought I was trying to start a mis-lynch on him because of his rng-proposal. Technically, he has started the OMGUS war all along. I only got angry about it, which has led to my downfall. You even state here that it's (somewhat weak) accusations. I did try to address them, but it was mostly about specific posts I made (out of many) that he found suspicious. He never made a solid case against me, I just wanted him to stop. If you are willing to lynch me because I became overly defensive when it came to a first time forum player continuing to attack me with what everyone agrees is poor logic, that's fine, but realize that I still don't think that Dittert is Mafia, and when I flip, please don't lynch him first, go after the others on my bandwagon. Summary: Dittert is town. On April 14 2012 02:39 willz22912 wrote: Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 02:19 imallinson wrote: On April 14 2012 02:11 willz22912 wrote: I called out imallinson because he was so quick to drop his stances on everything with a "good argument" and that Xatalos was letting him latch onto his case against ArcticFox without any questioning. HiroPro has also not contributed nearly as much as he could have. I dropped my stance on Arctic after he and other people had poked holes in Xatalos' argument, which seems perfectly reasonable to me. Then I made a case against trumpetarn and have stuck with it when bandwaggoning you would have been the easiest thing in the world. I'm not entirely sure why you think I am so quick to drop my stances (especially confused about the plurality there I have only changed my vote once and that was due to a reasoned counter-argument). I appreciate that you haven't jumped on my bandwagon as well, but that doesn't mean you're not one of the three. There's already enough votes on me to pretty much guarantee it, it would draw too much suspicion everyone voted me. You may indeed be town after all, I'm only trying to be transparent until I die, it's better that I post what I think of you than for town to not know. It may help them in the end. I think your case against Trumperarn has some merit because of how much he has lurked, but he also seems like a very newbie town in his first game, so I really don't know what to make of him really since he hasn't posted anything about me anyway. I would lean towards newbie town, but I have given that excuse to Dittert and Yomi so far, and look where that has gotten me =/ Summary: trumpetarn is a noobie town lurker On April 14 2012 03:39 willz22912 wrote: That's up to KharadBanar, vonKlaust, and Xatalos. I'm obviously going to be willing to stay alive, but who could I support to lynch in my place without looking desperate? The two votes not in yet are the lurkers. ArcticFox thinks Yomi is still Mafia, I personally disagree with this, I won't support that lynch. imallinson, you think trumpetarn is a valid lynch, I think he's a newb town still, but he is also the most inactive and lurker of us all and hardly a benefit to town. I would be willing to switch my vote to him, but that still wouldn't get him lynched over me, and would reek of desperation. No I'm content with my fate, just going to try and be as useful to town as I can and then hopefully see you guys win in the end. Summary: yomi is town. On April 14 2012 04:03 willz22912 wrote: Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 03:43 BroodKingEXE wrote: @dittert Even if you are dead, a townie would look for scum. If you really are a townie build a case against someone else. You've been asking questions all game, why not use the errors you found when you asked those to guide your suspicions. Would building a case against someone else convince you to not vote me? Then why should I bother building another case when I believe you're really Mafia? I've already stated my suspicions are on HiroPro (mostly for lurking), imallinson (for readily following Xatalos, although he has rebutted this, and I'm not so sure of this) and KharadBanar, who I feel is under-performing considering how he played in Newbie VI. His explanation for this is that he needs time to ramp up and his D1 isn't very good. Yomi: I feel he was overly defensive, a trait that newbie town usually display (he also posted this was his first game as well) He thinks Dittert is still Mafia, which I don't agree with, but that doesn't make him Mafia in my eyes. Still newbie town to me. Dittert: I feel he is going to be unhappy with himself when I flip green, but hopefully the town won't lynch him in response. He tunneled me and he played poorly as town, but that still means he's town in my mind. Xatalos: I feel the most town vibe from him for his willingness to at least start discussion with his case on ArcticFox, but he needs to step up his game since he has experience from GoT Acrofales: Also played in GoT Mafia, probably one of the more experienced newbs, have a good town vibe about him, his case against me is not without cause, and has good logic in it. I cannot blame him for reaching his conclusions because it was my own mistakes he pointed out. vonKlaust: Newbie town, pretty indecisive but without malicious intent, needs to be more assertive and stand by his opinions. Probably town in my eyes. Trumpetarn: Lurking the most out of anyone, probably newbie town with the way he entered the conversation and how he presented himself. Anything else I need to post? A list. Not a bad list, but it mostly summarises older points. I like this post. His reads are pretty light. His scumreads are BroodKing, based on the case he had earlier. KB, although I cannot really get a clue on why exactly (underperformance compared to newbie VI?). HiroPro, for lurking and Imallison for sheeping Xatalos. While I sympathise, because if you don't have good reads, you cannot suddenly post them when under pressure, I am also not particularly convinced he is really trying to get his reads out there. That is so far my largest criticism of him. As scum you know exactly who is townie and want to cast suspicion on them. The question is therefore how sincere is Willz in these posts? The second problem I have is his really butthurt behaviour when he is about to get lynched. He tries (and fails) to play the sympathy card. Particularly I hate the wifom he (intentionally or unintentionally?) creates by voting for himself and only switching to Yomi afterwards. It just plays into Xatalos' already wifomy wifom about the Willz-Yomi connection, which I REALLY don't see (this post was written before I asked for a better explanation in the thread). Post-lynch: On April 14 2012 08:55 willz22912 wrote: Credibility is earned.Still this leaves me with a shitty situation. I have little to no credibility (I made town wait around for so long for a bad case against a bad townie in the end) As to my play, I will try and step it up and be more transparent from now on, I promise. If I don't feel free to lynch me, but at this point I have to do a major rethinking of everything. I was expecting to be the lynch target on D1, and now I find myself alive but my proposed target dead in my place (and a town to boot). I won't be around for much of this night, I will be busy hanging out with family, I might be home in time for the N1 rollover, but that's not a guarantee. I'm also going to try to tone down my post count as well, I can easily see that I have the largest filter, but it's mostly full of fluff at this point. Being active is good, spamming the thread as I have been doing is bad. This is not an excuse for me to lurk, I'm merely saying I will be posting less (and hopefully better) responses. Thanks for keeping me alive town, I'll do my best to earn this second chance. You had better. I like his other two night posts, but not enough to budge me much. Yet, it is what judges call reasonable doubt. Verdict: suspicious. At the moment more a source of wifom and confusion. I hope someone DT checked him and this can be resolved. DO NOT CLAIM DT. FIND OTHER WAYS TO GET YOUR INFO OUT THERE. Too much doubt for a D2 lynch. He seems like a decent player, so should give better reads with time. If scum, his buddies will out him. 2. Dittert + Show Spoiler + Yesterday I was unsure about his scummyness. His case on willz was shoddy, but at least it was a case. See here what I thought of Dittert. Since then he has posted a grand total of 1 post and boy, is it shitty. I am not quite sure whether it is scum shitty or just plain shitty, but I agree with everybody who has posted about it so far that he cannot play the noob card and then yell at town for getting it wrong. Something is off here and if he doesn't want my vote tomorrow, he had better start playing properly. If he was so convinced brood was town, why didn't he push his case? In fact, why is his filter so goddamn empty in any case if that's the kind of anger he vents at town getting it wrong. Also, there's Ver (I think) saying that the people who shit all over town in a mislynch are usually scum. No clue how true that is, but it stuck with me. Verdict: scum. Good lynch target D2. 3. Yomi + Show Spoiler + Yesterday's *other* lynch target. My main problem with Yomi is his utter non-contribution to the thread. He has posted quite a lot. However, ALL his posts are about himself (and Xatalos). Stop talking about yourself and start talking about who's suspicious. All I have gotten is that you don't like Dittert and you think willz is *probably* town. That is really really REALLY useless for a 3-page filter. Let me put it differently: the more you fixate on defending yourself with waffle aimed at Xatalos, rather than with actively contributing to scumhunting the more I think you're scum. Your entire filter is filler and/or repeating the same old crap with Xatalos. STOP IT No. This throwaway list does not count as scumhunting: On April 14 2012 06:43 yomi wrote: Ok. I think you have poor reasoning skills and have never posted an actual "case" per say against me and neither has anyone else. This is your case? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=20#395 I find this post comical at best and already debunked it. I am an abrasive person and now I am dead. I don't know what you guys consider "helpful" but I guess I haven't done it. I think most of the posts in this thread are ridiculous at best and wildly speculative. I won't post anything speculative because I don't think more posting is automatically good and I only want to post things I'm at least somewhat sure of. I think more posting is actually bad and people should try to stay as concise as possible and post a lot less frequently or you guys are going to overwhelm yourselves with spam. I know I already can barely follow the thread. ~20 pages based on no actual information. I find this game bizarre. I think the following players are suspicious: xatalos - because his reasoning is frequently ridiculous. too dumb to believe (see dittert) hiropro - not posting dittert - can't believe the noob town act anymore. brood: this is his "case" against willz http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=328038¤tpage=18#349 seriously? that passes for an argument now? I think the following players are town: willz honestly not sure of anyone else at this point well that's everything on my mind. I'm prob dead no matter what. gg. Summary: Xatalos because OMGUS, hiropro and dittert for the usual reasons. Brood because of crappy logic. /facepalm. He posted quite a bit at night too. Changing from defending Xatalos' tunneling to tunneling himself on Xatalos. BOTH OF YOU STOP IT Yomi, I think your contributions so far have been non-existent. If you're town, stop tunneling on Xatalos and prove your worth. If you're scum, go ahead with shitting up the thread, you'll be lynched soon enough. Verdict: scum. Not red, because I don't like him for scum as much as dittert. It is plausible he's just a really dumb townie tunneling on Xatalos. Part II: goodfellas 1. Imallison + Show Spoiler + I have a problem reading Imallison. The reason is that it seems like he's contributing, but upon a closer look it seems that he's not. And then, if you look really closely, his posts have a point. I am not sure whether this is because he is unable to express himself concisely, or because he is willfully obfuscating his reads in a fat load of waffle. Some posts I don't like: On April 13 2012 19:28 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 15:40 Xatalos wrote: imallinson, I noticed a couple of suspicious things about your filter. First of all, this: On April 13 2012 04:18 imallinson wrote: I never thought you were mafia and wasn't trying to label you as such. I was just pointing out that what you had said about me wasn't quite accurate. Also this was before you had posted your suspicions on Arctic. You posting those suspicions definitely reinforced you as being probably town in my head. This post is an almost complete lie. If you look at my filter, I made my case against ArcticFox FIRST and only noticed your (suspicious) post after that. So your reasoning for first saying I'm Mafia and then backing off is extremely questionable, based on this post at least. And you say you never suspected me to begin with? Then what was this post all about: On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote: @ Xatalos I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. What is that if not accusing me of a Mafia slip? You never said directly I was Mafia, but looking at this sentence, I can see no reason to post it unless you thought I was Mafia. So why did you say later on that you never thought I was suspicious at all? it's not accusing you of a mafia slip at all at the time you were throwing accusations around like crazy, this was about 12 -14 hours in mind you, I was merely suggesting you maybe should calm down and think more logically that saying 4 or 5 people seem scummy with no evidence to back it up. town can make slip ups as well. Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 15:40 Xatalos wrote: Other potentially suspicious bits from your filter: - Your first post is very vague and hesitant, typical for a Mafia first post. - Your two Mafia reads so far have been ArcticFox (easy to jump on after me) and trumpetarn (a hardcore lurker who wouldn't defend himself). If Acrofales had flipped town, you could have just put the blame on me instead of yourself. Going after trumpetarn is very easy and harmless for you, because even if he flips town, nobody will blame you for being suspicious of an anti-town lurker. - Your sudden vote list is a "classic" Mafia tactic to appear useful without actually being useful. It's not really a reason to lynch you, but also considering the other stuff, it all adds up. - Over half the people here had hesitant first posts. - I picked trumpetarm at random out of the people who were lurking to make a case either way on because Willz suggested I make a case on someone who wasn't in the spotlight to put my own opinions out there. I'm not sure what Acrofales getting lynched has to do with anything no one has really suggested he might be scum. And ArcticFox was me agreeing with your case. If people agreeing with you makes them scummy I don't know what to say. - The vote list was because Willz had just asked if we could have a separate vote thread because it was hard to figure out where the votes were. I don't see how that is in anyway scummy. I really don't like his answer to why he made his case on trumpetarm. My interpretation of this is: willz thought I was scummy and asked me to post, so I will pick a random lurker and accuse him of being scum. There is no conviction here. Why trumpetarm rather than hiro, yomi or dittert? You made a case (fine), and in this post rather than defending your case you admit that your case was actually just a screen to hide behind. That is very scummy. On April 14 2012 06:55 imallinson wrote: I was just about to say yomi looks the scummiest here and then we get this corker from BroodKing Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: This vote is way to close I am going to vote for Yomi to make sure Mafia don't get the initiative to switch. This makes some sense but I have a feeling scum wouldn't try to save a fellow scum now it would look way too obvious given the current discussion. Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: I have already put some thoughts down, but his recent posts haven't helped his case. He talks about how he has been flaming, and that he is going to get more information. The problem with this is that its roughly 1.5 hours to vote, any information he brings foward won't be able to analyzed properly and the voting will turn to chaos. This is kind of true, yomi really hasn't made himself look good, but voting for someone because they can no longer save themselves is dumb and pointless. Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 06:38 BroodKingEXE wrote: Although I think willz is more likely scum. ##Unvote ##Vote: Yomi What ... This makes no sense what so ever. Why would you vote for someone if you didn't think they were scum. This whole post reeks of scum realising their ally is about to get lynched and trying to get some town cred from bandwaggoning on him. I still think yomi is pretty scummy at the moment but BroodKing definitely looks worse now. ##Unvote ##Vote: BroodKingEXE This was basically the only post that stood out to me of the people who voteswitched to BroodKing. My problem is how he misrepresents BroodKing. I have made the misrepresentation red. The rest is wifom. How do you know what scum would do at the last minute? Why did you wifom brood's reason for voting? For all we know they were both scum and you are their scumbuddy helluva relieved that you now have a reason not to bus your buddy? We don't, wifom is bad. Misrepresentation is a trick I liked to use in GoT mafia: take someone's words and give them a slight twist: make them look terrible. For icing on the cake add some plausible reason for why they did that. Recipe for a scum-made case. That is the recipe I see being followed here too. The problem is with the timing. This is a lot of effort to go to when the BroodKing bandwagon is already going. It could also be a townie learning from his mistakes and dreaming up a justification for his vote (in a bit of a rush), rather than bandwagoning brood without a valid reason. However, this leads to wifom: it could be mafia cleverly covering his tracks and securing the lynch. It could just be that imallison is a slow typer and was making the case before the bandwagon truly got going. So lets ignore this argument and just stick to: misrepresenting other people is scummy Redemption+ Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 15:26 imallinson wrote: Well now the BroodKing thing has settled into my head a bit more I will post my thoughts on the current situation. Honestly this lynch sucks if we had lynched either Willz or yomi we would have got info from it, lynching Brood and him turning town. I'm not entirely sure about Willz's idea about all the scum voting for Brood because absolutely everyone who was here in the hour before voting pretty much instantly switched to Brood. Also it's perfectly possible a scum member wasn't here near the end or was lurking super hard and didn't feel the need to come out of the shadows because the Brood lynch was obviously going through. Now my thoughts on some of our other townsmembers. Dittert: After his last post I'm really not convinced about the dumb town thing any more. Someone who isn't confident about their ability doesn't chastise people and call them idiots. Show nested quote + All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I will admit there have been some fairly weak arguments (yomi, Xatalos and myself have all been guilty of this although Dittert is as well) however it's day 1 in a newbie game we probably aren't going to be seeing any Holmes-esque deductions yet. Show nested quote + For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). I think ArcticFox said it best here "That was the dumbest thing I think I've ever seen." He's right it was a dumb slip by Brood whether he is town or scum. Looking back at it it's easy to say it was a stupid thing to go for. Show nested quote + What irks me is that before I left, we had a pretty good case going against willz and a general ##FoS pointed at yomi. Once willz started posting more, everyone seemed to think that he must be town (why does posting more mean you're town, especially when posts with any kind of substance whatsoever came after Acro and myself built a strong case against him). It's not just because he started posting more. He actually put up some sort of defence (in between the moping), then yomi started looking more suspicious so the vote started to move to him, finally Brood posted his dumb slip and the vote moved to him. This all makes sense from a town perspective, everyone voted for who they thought was most suspicious at the time. Show nested quote + Okay, so if you're convinced willz is town, why not vote for yomi? Yomi didn't even really have a defense, and I don't understand why everyone switched off of him. People did vote for yomi and I don't think anyone has switched off of him. He is certainly high on my list of suspicious people (more on that later). Show nested quote + Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)? A lot of this has been said before in the cases against Willz and yomi. This reeks of trying to be helpful while not actually contributing. Show nested quote + And for everyone who consistently says that my logic is dumb, my posts are bad, and my reads are wrong, my only read on brood was that he was a townie doing dumb stuff. Looks like I'm 1 for 1, or 2 for 2 if you count the townie part and the dumb stuff (like making a "scumslip" at the last minute) as 2 separate things. This read of yours is both well before he slipped up and after he flipped town. You didn't have much reason to suspect him in the former and have hindsight in the later. You seem to be using the fact you weren't here when the vote flipped to Brood to show you as innocent which I'm not buying. It's easy to say a vote was stupid after it has happened if you had responded as such while it was happening I might take your accusations a bit more seriously. That whole post seems scummy to me ##FoS: Dittert yomi: I'm really not sure about you at the moment. There have been decent arguments against you you never properly responded to but your posting is so erratic and nonsensical that I think you might just be a really bad town player. I would think scum would be more careful and considered in their posting. That being said you are playing so badly currently I'm thinking you wouldn't be a terrible lynch / vig shot. I would really like to get some calmer some reasoned stuff from you. Xatalos: The one good point, although not conveyed well, that yomi made is about you Xatalos. You have actually been suspicious of, to various degrees, or have voted against everyone except yourself and trumpetarn who barely counts because he stopped posting midway through day 1. I can't see a reason why any town would be so suspicious of everyone around him. I understand being wary and throwing a few accusations around but you have taken it to an extreme. I'm not sure whether you are town or scum but I really would like to know why you are so suspicious of everybody. Willz: Everyone seemed to let you off the hook somewhat after yomi became suspect #1 and I will admit you were definitely helpful in what you thought were your death throes posting your reads on others but the mopyness and self voting really helps only the scum. I don't know whether you are town or scum at the moment but you need to cut that shit out. I'll just post short thoughts on everyone else as I don't have mountains to say about them. vonKlaus: You strike me as fairly town. You have defended your self well and haven't been afraid to makes cases. ArcticFox: Again you seem town for the same reasons as vonKlaus. Acrofales: You are probably my strongest town read. You made an excellent well reasoned case against Willz. KharadBanar: Your posting can be a bit sporadic but is helpful when it exists. I hope to see you really shine now we are past day 1. HiroPro: I don't know what to say about you, you barely post. You also seem to flop about a fair bit with your voting mainly following other people. I really like this post. I don't really see a reason for mafia to make this post when it was made. It gives a good evaluation of the game so far and I agree with most of his reads. The rest of his posting in the night has also been good. Verdict: probably town. Want to see him live long enough to make more posts like his night posts. 2. Hiropro + Show Spoiler + His posts are making some effort to be useful. Verdict: noob town (same as yesterday, but slightly stronger) 3. Xatalos + Show Spoiler + Yeah. I'm surprised to find Xata in this list too. I was pretty convinced he was town yesterday. His filter is by far the hardest to decipher, so bear with me. 1. His filter is gigantic 2. He waffles alot Yesterday I made the effort to sift through the waffle and see if it was just his playstyle that makes him waffle, or whether he is trying to shit up the thread. I concluded that it's his playstyle from the following posts. + Show Spoiler [Xatalos' bumblingly townie posts] + On April 12 2012 23:45 Xatalos wrote: yomi, Dittert and HiroPro: your contributions so far are non-existent. ArcticFox posted something useful at last, so I'm almost willing to vote for someone else in his place, but you three need to post something before I can get a clear town/Mafia read on you. For the time being, I'm going to keep my vote on ArcticFox, since he's the only one I can make a strong case against at the moment. But you three are next in the line unless you convince me otherwise. Calls out players. Keeps his vote on his strongest read. On April 13 2012 03:52 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 03:41 imallinson wrote: EBWOP: I think I've said all I want on Arctic at the moment. He definitely has gone some way to alleviating my suspicions of him. I'm going to read through some of the more lurky players filters to see if there is anything suspicious there beyond them not posting. Hmm.. I'll definitely want to hear your opinions on other players than ArcticFox or Dittert. Willz was right in that you didn't really push anything of your own, but rather followed behind. That doesn't look good in my eyes. Also, I wonder about your fast change of heart earlier - your first reaction was to label me as a possible Mafia for suspecting you (OMGUS reaction) and right after that you started agreeing with me on everything. How does that work? Reads willz' case and keeps an eye on imallison. Calls out his possibly suspect behaviour. On April 13 2012 20:54 Xatalos wrote: imallinson, I like your answer. Your calm counter-arguments make sense from a townie perspective. However, you should at least post some more. You have been pretty silent and Mafia are usually in the category between lurkers and active posters, where you fit perfectly at the moment. Post more and your townieness will become more clear. (btw there was a typo in my case, I meant ArcticFox, not Acrofales) Acrofales, your case against Willz seems good on the surface, but I'm not sure about him. I'd want to at least see his upcoming "big contribution" before voting. However, I will look through his filter once I get home and see if I agree with you. More than Willz I would want to lynch Yomi right now. But he also claimed he wants to contribute closer to the deadline... Hmm, I don't like this delaying of contribution Willz and Yomi are doing. I'll reconsider my vote a bit later when I can read the filters in peace. Calm and collected. However, I kept my suspicions. Some posts I just really don't like. I also have the feeling that he might just be throwing suspicion around and seeing where it'll stick. He tried ArcticFox, it failed. He tried imallison, vonKlaust and finally yomi. This is, once again, pretty easy as mafia: you already know who's town. Look through their filter and make up a case. The problem with labeling this as scummy is that it is also a sign of overeager town. I kept my opinion in reserve. Tonight, however, I REALLY don't like his posts. He keeps on waffling on about his meta in GoT as if we should care to compare his play then with person X now. I was scum with him in GoT and his playstyle was different: more lurky, more searching for compromises. However, the whole point of being a noob is to learn and improve. The meta argument is more a minor irritation. The main things I really haven't liked in Xatalos' play: 1. Excessive tunneling, despite being told (and acknowledging) that it serves no purpose except to shit up the thread. + Show Spoiler [Tunneling] + On April 14 2012 01:09 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 23:52 vonKlaust wrote: @Xatalos I said you were my prime suspect, but I was and am far from sure that you are mafia. I don't agree with that I have had a persistant focus on you. I still maintain the stance that you could be mafia and I think that the chances for you being mafia is higher than others in the thread, but for now I think that Willz and Hiro are far safer bets. This is what I wrote about you when asked to pick top scum candidate: I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it. This is my reasoning for writing that: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2012 04:06 vonKlaust wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 03:43 Xatalos wrote: He didn't only agree with me, he posted some additional potentially suspicious quotes from ArcticFox. That's why I didn't focus on him at that point... Mafia usually jump in sheepishly to vote once a very easy lynch target has been found, not as early as he did. Still, he hasn't done much else for this thread, and I'm watching him closely. That's the risk I'll have to take. However, nobody was really pressuring anyone when I woke up and read the thread, so I figured I had to make the first move. There's no certainty that ArcticFox is Mafia, but given the information I have, I don't mind lynching him at the moment. This is fallacious. Of course it's better for the crooks to try to put forward some solid evidence together with joining a lynch than to just, as you put it, sheepishly vote once a very easy target has been found. Not only does it make the chances of the target actually getting lynched, but it also makes them look towny. I can accept that you would rather focus at ArticFox, but this explanation is NOT sufficient for dropping your suspicions on Iamallison To me this looks like a potential scum slip. On April 13 2012 04:46 vonKlaust wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 03:20 Xatalos wrote: I agree with you that the response from ArcticFox was good. It still doesn't mean he is town. You, like Willz, fail to see that metagame was only the starting point of my case, not the "meat" of it. The major part of my case was his flow of useless posts about policies and blues, neither related to Mafia-hunt but easy to talk about for Mafia (without giving town any new information). However, by no means is ArcticFox a "must-lynch" for me - just that he is my preference at the moment. Also, you have to admit my case on ArcticFox has generated a lot of useful discussion and possible Mafia slips (we can't know them all yet, as some of them will become more clear once some player's alignments are revealed). I'm all for pushing another lynch target, since everyone voting for ArcticFox would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in. Seeing players' reactions to different lynch pushes will be very helpful. I went back to research Xatalos filter after this incident: + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321137 And found this piece of text. This strikes me as pretty awkward. Not only is he trying to justify his case by saying that it generated discussion, but he also proposes to push another lynch target, not because he thinks that ArticFox is a bad lynch, but because "It would make it too easy for Mafia to blend in". Of course pushing for lynches generates discussion, but that does not justify pushing bad lynches. Of course you can use votes to pressure, but your vote against ArticFox don't really come across as a pressure vote to me. Also it feels a bit wierd that you seem so decisive while still saying stuff like "By no means is ArticFox a must-lynch for me" and "I'm all for pushing another lynch target". Especially when you earlier in the game wrote stuff like: Show nested quote + There's only so much you can do 7 hours into the game, but what I've got from these posts has been VERY useful + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14315170 Show nested quote + I suggest everyone to read my case on ArcticFox and vote for him. I'd put his chances of being Mafia at 70-80%, which is extremely high for me considering it's this early. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14315248 It feels like you're trying to get out of the lynch-train you created in the first place, while still maintaining ArticFox as a prime suspect. As far as I can tell, you didn't really ever back down from your claims. You just went defensive when people started to criticize your case. Hmm. You actually HAD some sort of a case against me. Your remarks are just so vague and uncertain that I haven't taken your observations seriously enough. I didn't say, at any point, that I had a town read on imallinson... I just said my suspicions of him "dropped a bit" after he made some valid additional points about ArcticFox and voted for him. I didn't think Mafia would so eagerly jump on the first possibility of a bandwagon - from what I've seen, Mafia usually wait until lynching someone gathers strong enough support and then blend in with the mass of voters. I'm not saying Mafia have to play passive and/or leave the initiative for town, but imallinson's fast agreement with my vote didn't seem very Mafia-like to me (too reckless and careless - generally Mafia are cautious and avoid the spotlight). I agree that I was too convinced by my own case, and I should have shifted my attention away from ArcticFox sooner. I think a reason for that might be that in my previous game (AGOT) there was a pretty aggressive town player named Mattchew, who found out 75% (3/4) of the Mafia team in a matter of hours, but he had too little faith in himself and followed the general opinion instead of his own opinion. If he had pushed even one of us during the first day, he might have won the game for town. I think that's the main reason why I didn't want to give up on my case on ArcticFox so fast, but in the end, it's not useful to tunnel so hard on one person if the general opinion has already shifted against my case. I don't consider ArcticFox a good lynch anymore even myself. By the way, I would be much more suspicious of YOU jumping for the ArcticFox bandwagon than imallinson. imallinson at least added content to my case and was pretty open and fearless about his support for my case. You, on the other hand, tried your very best to avoid responsibility. You said just that it "carried some truth" without adding anything of your own to it (other than your hesitant support for the case). Care to explain this? So here you admit you tunneled a bit on ArcticFox (I kinda disagree, that was probably healthy pressure). Yet a day later we get this from you: On April 14 2012 05:55 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 05:53 yomi wrote: Can't believe it has come to this but I have to protect myself I am 100% sure I am town but only 70-80% sure of willz. I have to save a sure townie vs a probably townie. ##unvote: dittert ##vote: willz22912 I will GLADLY move to dittert, brood, hiropro Why so scared? If you are town, you should post and convince us you are innocent. Instead you try to protect your hide by sacrificing your "most townie read" even BEFORE you are set to be lynched. This makes me even more suspicious of you, which is quite an achievement. I can't see a motivation for town to do this. This is not a scumtell. It's 1 hour before the deadline and he doesn't want to die. It's a scaredy-cat tell. What I am getting from you is confirmation bias. The rest of the day and most of the night is filled with a back and forth with Yomi which serves no real purpose. 2. Meaningless wifom about all kinds of stuff: bluefishing, + Show Spoiler [Wifom] + On April 12 2012 17:14 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 16:54 imallinson wrote: @ Xatalos I didn't mention blue reads at all. I said lurker lynches can get a blue who is trying to hide in the shadows. I never mentioned anyone I thought was blue or how we would figure a blue out. You seem to be looking so hard for slip ups you are making some yourself. Nevertheless, you were THINKING about blue tells as you considered lynching lurkers = possibly killing blues. It's not a reason enough to lynch you yet, but if I had to choose between you or anyone else outside of ArcticFox, Dittert and yomi, I would choose to vote for you. And you seem to forget that blue players very rarely are lurkers: mostly they try to act like vanilla townies and be at least somewhat active. Being a lurker or semi-lurker means a higher chance of Mafia, since it's against Mafia's win condition to contribute. Besides, I found your hesitation and wishy-washiness more condemning than your comment about lurkers = blues. On April 14 2012 04:49 Xatalos wrote: Willz, please listen. Look at the situation like this (I believe this is the case): - Willz is town - yomi is Mafia Here are the possible outcomes: A) We lynch Willz. He flips town. We lynch yomi tomorrow. He flips Mafia. There is no certainty about who are townies and who are not. B) We lynch yomi. He flips Mafia. We now know Willz is town, as well as I and ArcticFox. We can lynch someone else tomorrow. This may be trying to help. However, HOW DOES THIS MAKE ANY SENSE AT ALL? Why does yomi flipping mafia say willz is town? I haven't seen willz make much of a case against yomi. Atm I am willing to believe you might be town if yomi is scum, but how does it have anything at all to do with ArcticFox? Why are you pulling random names out of a hat? Even you is doubtful: two recent examples are Gumshoe vs. me in GoT mafia and VE vs. Toad in LI. Tunneling on a fellow mobster is high risk, but also high reward. On April 14 2012 07:08 Xatalos wrote: I did the same when I was Mafia last game. I kept gumshoe as my top Mafia read while nobody else suspected him. It worked well for me there. chaoser also made his first vote for Acrofales, a Mafia teammate. That argument is just WIFOM, there's no way what you might think of as Mafia. Zzzzz more GoT meta blabla wifom On April 15 2012 01:37 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On April 15 2012 01:21 Acrofales wrote: Once again. Stop assuming that claiming a vigi shot is a good way for a vigi to get town credit. Mafia can use this easily to gain town credit too (at the very least until N2, when kill flavours may not line up). I don't think Mafia would be up for such a huge risk. Imagine this: player A (Mafia) claims he is a Vigilante and that he shot yomi (based on my suggestion). However, the real Vigilante decided to shoot somebody else after all. Player B (Vigilante) shot player C, and everyone sees now that player A was lying - even if it were possible for there to be two Vigilantes (which I find very unlikely) everyone would know that player A is Mafia pretending to be Vigilante. 3. Filler posts telling everybody how to play. A few is fine. Xatalos has half a page of them. + Show Spoiler [lectures] + On April 12 2012 17:18 Xatalos wrote: Of course we can't expect everyone to play logically, but if you're a townie, you SHOULD contribute and be active, and if you're Mafia, you SHOULD be silent or disruptive. So lurking is definitely not equal to how a townie SHOULD play. On April 12 2012 18:58 Xatalos wrote: But the pressure is much stronger with vote+argument instead of just a vote (KharadBanar) or just an argument (Acrofales). So Acrofales, I encourage you to vote already. Your hesitation to vote only increases my suspicion of you, just like KharadBanar's empty voting increases my suspicion of him. A townie should never hesitate to vote. So while I agree that they need to respond, we won't necessarily get the answers we seek without the actual pressure of being lynched. On April 14 2012 21:31 Xatalos wrote: Show nested quote + On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote: @Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw. The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay? Really? I thought roleblock stops Mafia KP in this setup. Just look at this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324743&user=151616¤tpage=3 (the one where KharadBanar makes his last will and roleclaims before his death) Could we please get confirmation from a host? Ah, yeah... It doesn't really make sense for a blue to ask being jailed. But you don't know if I'm actually Jailer and just making the Mafia WIFOM into not shooting me, do you? Everything is possible. Even me being Mafia and wanting to buy a bit of credibility by sacrificing my power. I haven't announced my role yet. I'm glad you started posting and I like your response to my criticism of being AFK for the lynch. At the moment you read very town for me, so I agree with vonKlaust that you should be protected. At least we should encourage the Doctor to protect you - even if he decides otherwise, Mafia can't risk to waste their KP on you while you well might be protected. But I don't agree about telling who to investigate, because it would be too easy to frame then. Vigilante: yomi (preferably also explain your choice at the deadline, look at GOT where SLJ did this as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3) Jailer: Xatalos Doctor: Acrofales Detective: use your own judgement Most of Xatalos' posts are not useful and confusing. Sometimes I get the impression he is shitting up the thread on purpose and sometimes I get the impression he is trying to contribute. I am thus torn between the overeager townie and willfully confusing scum. Verdict: suspicious. At the moment all he's doing is filling the thread with crap. His filter is nearly unreadable and making sense of it is hard as hell. He keeps distracting people from scumhunting and focusing on meaningless details. Overeager townie or scum? I am unsure, but keep an eye on him. When the lurkers are unlurked or shot, he had better have improved his posts, or I'm going after him. Connections I'm not a big fan of connections, but I noticed this: Dittert and Yomi went at each other at a time there was really no reason to. If one is scum the other is probably town. Xatalos and Yomi tunneling could mean the same thing. Flipping yomi is not a bad idea to get a read on both of these (yeah yeah, coldhearted bastard). Random stuff vonKlaust is blending in pretty well. No time to analyse his filter properly atm, but he's doing a good job of being quite forgettable. I might as well complete the "list": KB and ArcticFox are town reads for me. Do we have a replacement for trumpetarn yet? I would have included him in the second set of suspects. I hope his replacement plays a more open style. | ||
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On April 15 2012 07:12 ArcticFox wrote: Show nested quote + On April 15 2012 04:04 Xatalos wrote: On April 15 2012 03:44 ArcticFox wrote: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=232671 Shoot people tallking nonsense. Shoot lurkers. If a vig exists, make a smart call. If the vig fires and hits a green, in a majority lynch situation it doesn't hurt much -- with no vig shot if we mislynch every time, Day 3 is 5-3, mislynch is 4-3, and mafia kill makes it 3-3 and game over. If vig hits and it's green, then Day 3 is 4-3, mislynch is 3-3, and game's over anyway. Saving the shot for Day 2 only makes sense if there's a) nobody talking nonsense b) nobody lurking and c) nobody the vig is really heavily thinking is mafia. It's extremely unlikely (and from where I stand, impossible) that all 3 of these are the case. The only terrible vig result would be to shoot a blue, which is even less likely than hitting mafia, as I highly doubt there are 4 blues in play. Now let's end this pointless blue talk. It's all WIFOM anyway. Let the night actions happen and get back to finding scum after the flips. Do you think yomi is the best Vigi shot btw? And what do you think about the possibility of the Vigilante to claim his shot at the deadline? *sigh* I'm still loathe to talk about blue roles, but if you insist... If the vig shoots someone the mafia is highly unlikely to kill, only then would the claim before deadline would be safe. I'd likely wait until *after* night 1 resolves, in case they shot the same target, then vig still has the bullet and hasn't claimed unnecessarily and takes no chance at being roleblocked. Since we won't know the kill flavors, any other play seems like a bad move. Any counterclaims would work themselves out by the Day 3 lynch, so the timing of the claim is more or less irrelevant. For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder. If you can go back through your filter and go, "wow, this actually can be read as REALLY scummy," then you're causing part of the confusion. Stop and read the filters. Make a solid, logical case. Post it. Read the counterarguments and see if they make sense or if they're full of crap. Be open and transparent with your reads. Anything else is just making the mafia's job easier and the town's job harder. I really hope our Day 2 is more productive. We spent so much time arguing with each other, and then getting no actual info from the lynch that Day 1 was nearly a complete waste. I feel like the night flips will give us something better to work with, and hopefully a fresh start for all of us. This means: if you are town, step up your game. Be active today. We have 3 scum left and I really want N2 to start with only 2 scum left. At the moment, we are lynching into Dittert, Yomi, Xatalos, Willz and imallison, which is just too many people. I actually think Dittert's final post was quite townie. It reminded me quite a bit of bluelightz (in any game he plays town): not contributing, but angry when everybody else screws it up. My question is: does the anger and frustration in his post feel genuine to you? I am inclined to think it's genuine and that, counterintuitively lowers the chance of him being scum. What he HAS managed to do is kill all D2 discussion. Lets discuss our other targets. Funcnode, you're new to the thread. Can you give us some analysis from the outside on what you think of the goings on so far? | ||
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On April 16 2012 01:58 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 16 2012 01:16 willz22912 wrote: On April 15 2012 10:20 imallinson wrote: On April 15 2012 08:29 willz22912 wrote: I really have no idea what the hell Dittert is doing. Should we really ditch all D2 discussion and let this vote go through? If he's going to be modkilled/replaced we may as well look at someone else or at least save him from another day. If we mis-lynch him today and Mafia kill another town again N2 we're at 5-3 D3, going to be hard to win at that point. We definitely shouldn't ditch the discussion and if a better candidate comes up we should lynch them. However, I for one am not going to let someone martyr themselves as an easy out. Can you explain the underlined part here a little better? Are you saying you will or will not let Dittert martyr himself? I have no idea what Dittert's plan is for doing this as town considering if we mis-lynch again and lose another town during the night it's going to be 5-3 D3, which is pretty much mylo for town. My thoughts are basically that Dittert is my #1 scum read at the moment, yomi is #2 and you and Xatalos are tied for #3 at this point. If someone makes a case that replaces Dittert as my #1 of course I will change my vote. What I mean my not letting him martyr himself as an easy way out is that his martyring hasn't dropped my suspicion of him at all. If he had done what you had done and actually posted stuff that was useful to the town I would be more inclined to think he was town. The fact he basically said I'm off you guys are on your own and even suggested bringing the day 2 deadline forward makes me think he wants as little discussion going on as possible which seems exceptionally scummy to me. I honestly think he is scum who knows he is dead and is allowing his team to bus him to stop town getting any useful disscusion going day 2. This is the other explanation for his post. I find it really hard to get a read on Dittert's two posts since the D1 lynch. It's the main reason I didn't take my vote off him. Well, I expect him to post something useful at 8pm EDT. @KB: I kinda dislike connection play as it invariably introduces wifom. I prefer straight-up behavioural analysis, but seeing as I'm stuck, I am willing to give it a try. | ||
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On April 16 2012 02:31 willz22912 wrote: Since a few people are around and active, if we are operating under the assumption that Xatalos and Dittert are both scum, shouldn't we lynch Xatalos first because he was by far more active than Dittert? This would also provide town with more information as to his interactions with other players, far more so than if we lynch Dittert. You back to soft-defending Dittert? From most people I would accept this argument, but I am not sold on the willz-dittert case being so unlikely. While I don't really want to dredge up GoT again, there is an enlightening example where Gumshoe and I went at eachother like nuts. Noob mafia is just as unpredictable as noob town and "light pressure" can be misread as "bussing", causing the other to counterbus. However, the willz-dittert connection is far more interesting than that. Dittert is posting a case on willz. Willz does not OMGUS him, but instead protects him. Either because he is convinced Dittert is really town, or because he doesn't want Dittert's case a. getting too much attention or b. drawing attention to Dittert. Now you're defending Dittert again, but this time for not giving as much information. Once again there's a town explanation, but it is suspicious that it comes from willz. I for one am far from dropping the willz-dittert connection. | ||
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My case D1 was behavioural analysis of you. I didn't make connections. I never said anything remotely like "if Dittert is scum then Willz is also scum" or anything like it. I may have brought up possible motivations for your play, but I believe I have always been fair in pointing out possible townie motives for doing the same thing. Some further corrections: you didn't OMGUS Dittert, you OMGUS'd brood. You protected Dittert all day saying he was noob town and should shut up. You are soft defending Dittert: you are making a case that he shouldn't be lynched. It's a soft defense because it's not really saying he's not scum, but because his lynch would not be useful. I disagree. Lynching scum is always useful. So far he's still my strongest scum read. | ||
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However, I am running into a problem. When looking through Dittert's filter properly I find his D1 posts read like town. The problem is his 2 last posts. He basically switched from an "I want to contribute" to a "Fuck you, you suck" stance. How is this helping town? It's like a football team beating up the goalie if the other team scores 1-0. Dittert, I want to believe you're town, but rather than martyring yourself (which is, if anything, a scummy thing to do), you need to help us find the actual scum. You say you want to: On April 15 2012 08:14 Dittert wrote: Once you see I flip town, you'll be able to put a lot more of the pieces of the puzzle together. However, this is not true. At the moment your flipping green would give us a big null tell on willz (and HiroPro): he has been defending you, either because he's town and believed you were town, or because he's scum and knows you're town (and an easy target to gain town credit on, because the chance of you ending up dead D1 was present... and is present again today). It will probably make me, Yomi and KB look bad as we have been pushing hardest for your lynch. I think you're confusing the two ways of killing. Being night-killed can give a bit more importance to your cases (not too much, mafia might just have killed you because you're strong town, or they had a suspicion of blue, or because they want to make town think that your cases were good... or wifom it up!). Being lynched brings out suspicion against whoever has been pushing for the lynch, bandwagons on. It doesn't add importance to whatever the lynchee said, except that we no longer have to wifom motive. For instance we can now believe everything broodking said was because he really believed that. Not that it helps much if what you have said so far is unconvincing. In short: don't give up. Convince us on lynching willz or yomi (or a new scumspect you find when you read through the thread)! | ||
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Dittert: you have gone with willz and yomi again. Any idea of who the third scum would be? Xatalos on the other hand is just digging his hole deeper. ##unvote ##vote: Xatalos Be back in a couple of hours. | ||
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However, I have not sat still. When I said I'd take a stab at connection play, I meant it. Rather than just the cases, I started with analysing voting behaviour. Now this is going to be a very long and technical post, and as with any connection play it makes some assumptions about what I think mafia would and wouldn't do. First a very quick summary of D1 votes: + Show Spoiler [voting behaviour D1] + KB bad pressures HiroPro Xatalos makes a case on ArcticFox imallison hops on ArcticFox Yomi votes Dittert without a proper case, but suspicions HiroPro makes a case against Xatalos BroodKing suspects Dittert imallison makes a throwaway vote on trumpetarm KB: another obvious pressure vote on Yomi VOTECOUNT @ April 13 6:52 ArcticFox (1): Xatalos Dittert (2): Yomi, BroodKing trumpetarm (1): imallison Yomi (1): KB Xatalos (1): HiroPro No vote: Acro, ArcticFox, Dittert, trumpetarm, willz, vonKlaust ---- Xatalos makes a new case: vonKlaust HiroPro follows vonKlaust counters HiroPro and immediately unvotes when HiroPro defends HiroPro kisses and makes up (unvote) Dittert makes a case against Willz, Yomi and ArcticFox. Vote Yomi BroodKing unvotes Dittert based on it ArcticFox makes a case on Yomi (I cannot call it following KB) Acrofales makes a case on willz KB follows vonKlaust follows Dittert follows (granted, he had a case already and was voting yomi only because he didn't think willz woud get town support) Xatalos follows (stronger than his own cases) VOTECOUNT @ April 14 00:40 Willz (5): Acro, KB, vonKlaust, Dittert, Xatalos Dittert (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (1): ArcticFox No vote: trumpetarn, BroodKing, HiroPro, willz --- BroodKing follows willz (small addition to case) Willz makes a case against BroodKing Xatalos makes a case on Yomi KB votes for lurker HiroPro Willz goes emo and votes for himself Willz decides to save himself, because ArcticFox talks him into it. KB votes for yomi VOTECOUNT @ April 14 05:35 Willz (4): Acro, vonKlaust, Dittert, BroodKing Ditter (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (4): ArcticFox, willz, Xatalos, KB No vote: trumpetarm, HiroPro --- Yomi wants to save himself: votes willz vonKlaust flipflops: votes Yomi BroodKing votes Yomi and town blows up. Yomi votes BroodKing (chance to save himself?) KB searching for consensus (understandable): votes BroodKing Xatalos hops on the bandwagon vonKlaust hops on the bandwagon imallison comes up with a plausible explanation to hop on the bandwagon ArcticFox hops on the bandwagon HiroPro hops on the bandwagon FINAL VOTE D1 BroodKing (7): yomi, KB, Xatalos, vonKlaust, imallsion, ArcticFox, HiroPro yomi (2): willz, BroodKing willz (2): Acro, Dittert No vote: trumpetarm and D2 votes so far: + Show Spoiler [D2 voting behaviour] + Acro votes Dittert based on nightly reads Yomi sheeps Imallison sheeps Dittert /suicides KB bandwagons Xatalos makes a case on Yomi (again) HiroPro makes a case on Xatalos Xatalos bandwagons Dittert for really weak reasons KB bandwagons Dittert, with a good analysis post Willz votes Xatalos Yomi makes a case against Xatalos, again, but KEEPS his vote on Dittert KB sheeps Xatalos (although he's building on his earlier case) VOTECOUNT @ April 16 05:51 Dittert (5): Acro, Yomi, imallison, Dittert, Xata Xata (3): HiroPro, willz, KB No vote: Funcmode, vonKlaust --- vonKlaust bandwagons Xatalos funcmode bandwagons Xatalos Dittert unsuicides and continues his case on willz Acro unvotes Dittert and bandwagons Xata imallison posts a long case and bandwagons Xata VOTECOUNT @ April 17 00:45 Dittert (2): Yomi, imallison, Xata Xatalos (7): HiroPro, willz, KB, vonKlaust, funcmode, imallison Willz (1): Dittert And now the assumptions: 1. I assume that mafia is particularly willing to buss their mates: if there is a plausible way out, they will take it. 2. I assume that mafia does not care who of two townies gets lynched and won't voteswitch unless a bandwagon calls for it. + Show Spoiler [speculation] + I realize the second may not be plausible to some of you, but I for one, as scum, am happy with any town lynch. If it's someone dangerous I consider it a nice bonus, but I'll take what I can get. I am extrapolating that most scum play that way. I tried to find something interesting in the pre-Yomi/Willz votes, but there is nothing that stands out to me. However, both the Yomi/Willz-votes and the Brood bandwagon allow me to draw a few conclusions. First I would like to say that Dittert, Willz', Trumpetarn and my own absense at the final vote could be seen as suspicious. I personally believe there are valid reasons for all these absenses and don't think I can read anything into them. + Show Spoiler [Brood bandwagon conclusions] + imallison and HiroPro waited until the very end before switching. They also felt the need to write a lengthy justification while the vote was already sealed. I find this quite interesting behaviour. It may not be suspicious, but file this away for later. Note that neither was PARTICIPATING in the willz/yomi-controversy. If willz and yomi are both innocent and either imallison or hiro are scum, they could have been waiting for a bandwagon to get going and jump on. Exactly as it happened. This behaviour is still plausible, but not as likely if one of Yomi/Willz is scum. In this case I would at the very least expect some soft defense while waiting it out. We will get to filters later. + Show Spoiler [Willz/Yomi split conclusions] + There are four possible cases and I will go through them one by one: Willz and Yomi both scum The D1 happenings do not make a lot of sense to me in this case. My case on Willz came fairly early and there was plenty of time to make alternative cases. I find it extremely unlikely that scum would come up with an alternative case on another scum member, so if Yomi and Willz are both scum, then Xatalos (initial refocus on Yomi) is almost certainly town. Moreover, I see no reason for scum to voteswitch between the two, so if both are town, then KB and vonKlaust. Combining the reluctance to buss a scumbuddy and the lack of motivation to switch, that leaves the people who jumped on Yomi but not Willz (maybe scramble for town credit when it was clear that the lynch was between two scum): ArcticFox is the only one to do this. That leaves imallison, HiroPro and trumpetarn who lurked as a possible third scum. If this is the case, scum played D1 terribly (or very risky): they were waiting till the last minute to bandwagon someone else. If this is the case then the first people to hop on Brood are extremely suspect. However, I find it very implausible that this scenario happened. I will disregard it in future analysis. Willz scum and Yomi town Now Xatalos' case makes a LOT of sense. He is protecting his scumbuddy Willz from a lynch by focusing suspicion elsewhere. It is improbable that Acro would make the case on Willz (and same for Dittert). Due to assumption 1, it is unlikely that people voting for Willz are scum (with the exception of Xatalos, who could plausibly be said to vote to reduce suspicion and then invent a countercase). KB and vonKlaust are probably town. Willz town and Yomi scum Now Xatalos' case makes no sense at all: why buss a buddy with a likely candidate primed and ready? Same for KB and vonKlaust. It also means that Yomi's scumbuddies are hiding in the people who didn't vote for Yomi: Two of: Acro, Dittert, HiroPro, imallison, trumpetarm are scum. If you want to speculate about me being scum, do so yourself. I'm not wasting time on that. It leaves two of Dittert, HiroPro, imallison and trumpetarm. Willz and Yomi both town If both Willz and yomi are town, I see no reason for vote switches by scum as they frankly don't give a fuck. Xatalos, KB and vonKlaust are probably town. We see that this behavioural analysis alone makes it very likely that vonKlaust and KB are probably town (and imho their filter is another indication. More so for vonKlaust than KB). We will keep the three possible cases in mind as we analyse D2 behaviour. So far the only significant thing that has happened is the Dittert/Xatalos case. So here goes: + Show Spoiler [D2 Dittert/Xatalos cases] + Once again, four possibilitites, but now they have repercussions by taking D1 votes into account! Lets make the lists: Dittert and Xatalos both scum Xatalos' behaviour makes no sense. He is under suspicion and bandwagons his mafia buddy instead of just voting for Yomi based on his entire night of shitting up the thread with him. Only possible reason is if Yomi is the third scum and the scum is really confusing the shit up. This seems unlikely, because yomi's behaviour is inconsistent with being scumbuddy with Xata and Dittert. Why vote dittert in the first place? Seems extremely unlikely. Dittert scum and Xatalos town In this case, it is unlikely that Yomi is scum: despite the night spat he is sticking with the Dittert vote and only FoS'd Xatalos. Very weak case, Yomi can still switch at any point and while the bandwagon is going the right way there is no need to switch. If Xatalos is town, that rules out situation 2 of D1, leaving: A. Willz town and Yomi scum One of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode is the missing scum. B. Willz and Yomi both town Two of HiroPro, imallison, funcnode are scum. Dittert town and Xatalos scum People making the case on Xatalos are unlikely to be scum. Specifically HiroPro. Why make the case that refocuses on your scumbuddy when you can ride an easy mislynch? I also find it hard to think of a reason for anybody to switch, which leaves too few scums. This situation seems unlikely to me. For the sake of completeness, it discards situations 3 and 4 of D1, leaving: Willz town and Yomi scum In this case one of: imallison and funcnode is the missing scum. Both have switched to Xatalos, though, which seems like a strange buss. Dittert and Xatalos both town If we plug this information into the D1 results we get two possible D1 scenarios: A. Willz town and Yomi scum Two of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum. B. Willz and Yomi both town And by elimination: HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum. Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that [b]HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him. | ||
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EBWOP: Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him. | ||
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The Dittert Connection If Dittert is scum, then Willz and Yomi are probably not. This is particularly interesting, because it makes it very unlikely that Dittert is scum: if my vote analysis of D1 is right, then the only scenario in which Dittert can be scum is if Yomi is also scum, or Xatalos is also scum. Lets take a new look at these situations. + Show Spoiler [Dittert scum speculation] + Yomi is Dittert's first scumbuddy. In this case Dittert is doing a good case of bussing his buddy. He does this at the start of D1, before there is any reason to. The only evidence for this is that he explains that his strongest scum read is Willz and keeps his vote on him. Possible, but not particularly plausible. Xatalos is Dittert's first scumbuddy. Then my real question is: what is the third scum doing today? Why no activity in trying to get the lynch to switch? Why is Dittert the ONLY one to be voting for someone else. This seems extremely unlikely. The only two lynch suspects all day have been Dittert and Xatalos. This seems like too bad to be true scumplay. Verdict: Dittert Yomi Yomi has a couple of interesting spats. He goes at it with Dittert, HiroPro and Xatalos and thus it seems unlikely that he is on the scumteam with any of these (although the Xatalos one was quite harmless and could plausibly have been used to distance himself from his scumbuddy). However, Xatalos is already not on a scumteam with Yomi based on voting behaviour. Verdict If Yomi is scum, then HiroPro is town. If HiroPro is scum, then Yomi is town. I still think it's quite possible Yomi is scum. Imallison Imallison makes a case against trumpetarn. This could be distancing, but when asked to make a case against anybody, he picked this lurker out of the couple of options there. Imallison soft-defends Yomi and HiroPro. Verdict: no hard conclusions here. If Imallison flips red, worth scrutinizing Yomi and HiroPro. However, I am disliking his filter more the longer this game goes on. His cases always seem to be following the general trend. | ||
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The only way I can make sense of this current bandwagon on Xatalos is if he's town. I voted for him this morning in the hope of drawing out a defense. This may have been a bad plan, but I have to admit that I was stuck in my analysis and needed more info. The lack of a defense so far means that scum is either willing to let it go so late that they run a big risk in saving their scumbuddy, or Xatalos is town. I have looked through everybody's filter to make sense of scum reads. Discarding Dittert and Xatalos and for now assuming KB and vonKlaust are town as well, that leaves: Yomi Willz HiroPro Funcnode Imallison Of these, I feel that Willz has actually redeemed himself quite nicely during the night and I am leaning somewhat town on him again. Now the rest of these filters are all pretty damned terrible and distinguishing between them is fucking hard. Funcnode was first Trumpetarn, whose filter is pretty much a blank page. Funcnode has since posted a list in which he sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. He also decided Xatalos was scum, just like everybody else. This is neither scummy nor townie, but it doesn't help us at all. I am willing to give him the day off in the hope to get a clearer read. Replacing someone who afk'd out of the vote is not useful at all. Yomi of these four, I have the most mixed feelings about Yomi. I actually think he has brought up quite a lot of townie points. However, his filter is still not completely convincing. Am also willing to let him slip, but at least I will share my reads on him so far: + Show Spoiler [ Acro's reads of Yomi] + Points out how bad the discussion is. Fat load of nothing. Lurking? Dropped in 8 minutes after Xata called him out. Suspicious of Xata and Brood for vague reasons. Wow, made a fubar post @April 13 2012 01:12. Thinks accusing people in every post is townie behaviour. Seems a bit panicked. Also, defense of Dittert by ArcticFox? More like an OMGUS to dodge the question. Lashing out like a madman... BroodKing is suspicious of his top 3 list where he doesn't follow the ranking. I disagree with that read, he's just listing 3 mafia members. Happen to be the most suspected player and two lurkers (arcticfox, hiropro, dittert). Easy picks. Throws some suspicion at HiroPro. Gets into an OMGUS with Dittert. Dittert and Yomi both scum seems increasingly unlikely. Yomi buddies willz. Willz looking townie at this point, so who knows. Something weird with yomi defending his defense of willz. Not a tell, just weird. Soft accusation of Dittert. Later turns into a hard accusation. Is less willing than willz to just roll over and die. Lies about being the first to suspect Brood. His post is a throwaway that could have meant anything. Seems increasingly unlikely that Yomi is on the scumteam with Dittert or HiroPro. Is reluctant to say Xata is mafia. Goes back and forth poking holes in Xatalos' logic. Not much use either way. I think Xata catches too much flak for misunderstanding Yomi. It is really easy to misunderstand. Who drives this point home? Finally. Yomi makes a post suspecting HiroPro and Dittert (been harping on them all game). His post makes some sense. I would not expect a connection case like this from a mafia member, it's too risky. Claims activity, but does nothing. Townometer: ii Scumometer: ii That leaves HiroPro and imallison. Both their filters throw up giant red flags. Here are briefly my reads on both: + Show Spoiler [imallison] + imallison: fat load of nothing posts. Seems pretty clueless. Buddying people, mainly Xatalos. Posts a case on Trumpetarn which is not bad, but picking on an inactive noobie is pretty easy. Still buddying Xatalos. Many more nothing posts. Makes a case against Trumpetarn for nothing. Same as Hiro... makes a baddish case against Brood. Either because he's town and believes it, or because he's scum and wants to seal the deal. Makes a good list during the night. Note the town read on Arctic tho. Soft defense on HiroPro? Is very scared of a vig shot... Posts a lot more sheeping. Definitely soft defending HiroPro. Also soft defending Yomi. Good case against Xatalos, who is currently the prime for lynching. No read there. Scumometer: ii Townometer: i + Show Spoiler [HiroPro] + Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos. Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection? Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not. Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks? Soft defense of Dittert? Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument. Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy. Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town. Could still be very noob town. Townometer: i Scumometer: iiii I know these reads are not very useful without the actual references to the posts, but I have had it with typing. Btw, townometer points are earned by doing something townie. Scumometer by doing something scummy. Today I like a HiroPro lynch. ##vote HiroPro | ||
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##unvote ##vote: HiroPro | ||
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On April 17 2012 02:38 imallinson wrote: @Acrofales While I find the analysis of voting patterns very interesting I'm not exactly sure how it helps us. To draw any conclusions from it we need to know the alignment of at least two people we don't already know. If you think there are any conclusions we can draw currently I'd love to know. As for your concerns about me. I realise I seem fairly lurky compared to some people but I post all the relevant information and thoughts I have my flying under the radar certainly isn't deliberate. I feel if I was posting a lot more I would be repeating myself or others or just spamming the thread up. Me making a case on BroodKing was just down to a personal policy of mine to always back up my votes with an argument so others can see what I was thinking when I voted. I don't feel I sheeped Dittert at the start of day 2, I posted a long case on why he struck me as suspicious in the night and it just happened you voted for him before I did. Doesn't really matter what I call it. It's your vote that matters. ALL the votes on Dittert are justified by his fucknuts nightpost and his martyring himself after a few votes. Your case was the first to point it out, but it was extremely obvious. One look at that post and I was writing him off as really too angry. Let me put it this way: if Dittert is town, then it is just an easy out. Everybody was going to connect those dots and it's free town credit to be the first. If he's scum, then brownie points for you: you were the first. However, that doesn't mean much. ArcticFox, willz and myself made similar points, with KB and funcnode also repeating that argument on Dittert in their lists. I think I have said it before: anybody can make a case based on a bad play. I have done it multiple times in both GoT mafia and DFM2 mafia. The trick is to find the motive behind the play. Is it a townie thinking it's scum, or is it scum trying to push a townie lynch. THAT is what my analysis is about. Trying to discern motives in the play. | ||
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Now, back to imallison. I agree. When I was on the last part I basically forgot about the connections: I used the connections to wittle down the suspect list and then used straight up filter analysis to conclude that HiroPro was the most scummy. However, you are right that if HiroPro flips red, then Dittert is quite probably scum. Lets consider it again. If Dittert is town and HiroPro is scum, then HiroPro has done something that goes directly against my initial assumption number 2: mafia won't bother making new cases when they can bandwagon a townie. There are some high wifom reasons for doing so, but when looking at when HiroPro makes the case, I cannot really get them. At that point, I had fingered Xata as suspicious and Yomi was still having at him. However, most of the "Xata is suspicious" posts came later. However, if Dittert is red then my reasoning is wrong somewhere in the analysis. Lets go through the HiroPro-Dittert connections and see what makes sense. HiroPro-Dittert-Xatalos. HiroPro's case makes no sense. HiroPro-Dittert-Yomi. The Dittert-Yomi connection seems to preclude this possibility. Unless I am wrong about their tunneling each other at the start of the game. It seems farfetched. HiroPro-Dittert-willz. Seems unlikely given Dittert's posts. However, I admit that I may have used faulty logic somewhere in concluding Dittert is innocent, as Dittert, HiroPro and anybody else could make a lot of sense: HiroPro has defended Dittert at almost every opportunity. Dittert has acted very vague on HiroPro: there is some soft-defense in there. Especially when answering Xatalos. I kinda like that connection. I will go back to the Dittert option and have a good look at my logic. In the meantime, imallison, it is ALSO possible that HiroPro is innocent and you are scum. You only lost the race for my vote by a very small margin. I would love to hear people's opinions of HiroPro and imallison. They have REALLY been flying under the radar for far too long. | ||
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I have to go cook and eat. I promise to be back well before the lynch and would love to see more people, other than Xatalos synthesise their thoughts on Dittert and HiroPro. PLEASE do not focus only on the connection. We can only lynch one person today and unless you have an excellent reason for discarding one (or all) of: Xatalos, HiroPro and Dittert, or an excellent reason for suspecting someone else, please keep this focused. We only have 3 more hours until the lynch. @vonKlaust: I am sorry to hear you may have to abandon the game. I would love to hear your thoughts on Dittert, Xatalos and HiroPro. | ||
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It'll be brief, because HiroPro's filter is really really short. I have not been particularly impressed by his play all game, as you could have read here, here or here. At this point I had settled on HiroPro probably just being bad town. However, the problem with bad town is that it can equally well be explained by mafia. I was willing to give Hiro the benefit of the doubt, because 1. it's a newbie game and 2. chances of being scum are smaller than those of being town. However, I am no longer so sure. All the behaviour I explained away as bad town can also be a mafia throwing blame around until it sticks somewhere. First he tries Xatalos, because of a bad case. Then he tries vonKlaust. What really struck me in this case was the following discussion: + Show Spoiler [HiroPro-vonKlaust discussion] + On April 13 2012 07:40 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 07:32 vonKlaust wrote: + Show Spoiler + On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote: Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about: + Show Spoiler + On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote: Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this. Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far. This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote: Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works. Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie? On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote: I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt. I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it. HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking. I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect. That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? ##Unvote ##Vote: vonKlaust I just made a post about me acting indecisive and unproductive in the beginning of the game. While I'm sure it won't give you much comfort, since I basically agree that was the case, but that is the plain truth. You can find it here: + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=14321898 This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? You're really for jumping to conclussions aren't you? What I meant was exactly what i said: I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. To me, it seems more likely for a newbie mafia to write about blue roles than for a newbie blue. I wrote this to combat a possible argument against him being scum. How is this indecisive with what at the time were my suspicions? I basically agreed with what you were saying. Wouldn't that make you more of a scumslipper than me? That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? The fact that I called Dittert out as a confused townie don't have anything to do with that I felt very confused in the beginning of the game, except for the fact that I can understand how he would feel as a confused townie. Ofc I can have you as my prime suspect even though I(probably wrongly) supported your case against ArticFox. I can't see how you think that is wierd. At the time I didn't have anything on you, and I thought your claims were reasonable. Now, I have something on you, and I no longer think your claims were reasonable. See? And as I wrote in my post about you being my prime suspect: No, you're not my only suspect. I also pointed out HiroPro as someone I think is playing in a way which is very negative for town, which makes me suspect him. And also, as you would see if you would actually read my posts, my suspicions against you have nothing to do with your actual case against ArticFox. It was the fact that you tried to justify your case on other grounds than it being a good case. Also, I think that I have actually started to be much more productive than earlier. I'm getting more used to this, and now there is more to go on. I am the first to agree with that I wasn't very productive before. This is so contradictory. Why on earth would you support the case of the person who you most believe to be mafia??? Analysis: this is either really bad reading, or it is willfully misrepresenting vonKlaust's position. On April 13 2012 07:57 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos. Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him. Show nested quote + And by the way: First you voted Xatalos. Later you wrote: Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious). Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines: ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of? 1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust. Analysis: graceful backpeddling. vonKlaust not only destroyed the case, but switch and baited. How can HiroPro make this case, if he did the EXACT same thing (albeit in the reverse order)? On April 13 2012 08:03 HiroPro wrote: Because the reason for me suspecting him was his bad case..... Obviously if he posts an actual good case, he doesn't appear as mafia to me. And the case against you has merit. I would also still like to know why you never voted for Xatalos if he was your strongest mafia read. And the bad logic coverup. It is really a shame vonKlaust didn't follow up very hard on this and it got lost in the willz case However, we still have this gem: On April 13 2012 08:24 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 08:19 vonKlaust wrote: I voted for HiroPro because he started to switch around the casuality. And his inconcistancy on changing suspects. On the matter of casuality he claimed: 1. I suspected Xatalos 2. I supported his case. What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos. As I wrote before, I can agree with that what he wrote isn't totally inconcistant, it's still wierd. I'm not trying to misrepresent what you said. I read your posts from the ones that Xatalos quoted (there was one post in which you said that you agreed with the case against ArticFox and another post that said that Xatalos was your biggest scum read) and assumed that they were all around the same time. That was my mistake. Okay. Lets look at the Xatalos case: On April 13 2012 06:54 Xatalos wrote: HiroPro, you really need to post more. Right now you're just a huge question mark to me, which is worse than if I had at least a neutral read on you. Your case against me also seems pretty half-hearted at best... I can't say if you're serious or just making a weak fake pressure. In any case, your play so far has been anti-town and unproductive. I just need to see something more from you before coming to conclusions. I went through every player's filters and rearranged my preferences for lynching. At the moment I'm willing to unvote ArcticFox and see more from him before a lynch. There are a couple of reasons for this: A) His later posts have actually been useful and contributive. B) I must admit my original case on him wasn't as strong as I first thought it was... It lacked sufficient cold facts (except the policy lynch talk) and was more based on intuition than logic. Still, I don't regret voting for him, as this case pushed the discussion forward and revealed a lot of opinions. I'm not saying it was just a calculated pressure, but partly so. C) Some of the most pro-town players, in my opinion, have also defended him (such as Acrofales and Willz). So, who to vote for if not ArcticFox? I agree with BroodKing's case on vonKlaust and imallinson's case on trumpetarn. Either of them would be good lynches. Acrofales made a good case against Dittert and yomi, and I'd be willing to lynch either of them, but neither of them has posted much yet (same as HiroPro). Right now I'm leaning the most towards vonKlaust. Here are the parts of his posts I'm most suspicious about: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 21:36 vonKlaust wrote: Ok, I must disappointedly admit that I feel pretty lost. So far I think most cases have felt a bit rushed, but I guess that could be because I'm simply not used to this kind of speculative reasoning. I do however think that Xatalos case on ArticFox seems to carry some truth. If I would have to vote right now, I would probably go with this. Both the blue-talk and the policy lynching-talk seems a bit odd. I guess you could agrue that ArticFox could be blue himself, but it doesn't strike me as very natural behaviour to talk so much about blues if you are one yourself since you would desperately want to stay hidden. I'm not quite as confident about this as Xatalos seems to be, but to me this seems to be the best analysis so far. This post is just... Very indecisive and unproductive. He tries to ride on his own newbieness/confusion without providing anything other than vague or pointless remarks. What is that part about ArcticFox's possible blue role even supposed to mean? Could it be that same Mafia slip I thought I already saw in ArcticFox's posts? Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 23:24 vonKlaust wrote: Well, I AM confused. And I can agree that I come across as somebody who doesn't take solid stances. I don't know alot about this game, and I try to be humble to that fact. I say what I think, but you're likely not gonna see me write something like "I am perfectly comfident this is how we should play this game" or "I know for a fact that X is scum". That's just not how my brain works. Again he is trying to hide behind his confusion/newbieness. I find it suspicious how he keeps repeating how confused he is. Even if you are truly confused, why spend your energy explaining to others that you are a useless and confused townie? Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 05:43 vonKlaust wrote: I still have a feeling that Dittert is just a confused townie. I think the whole RNG-thing have been blown out of proportions and I think his weak case against Willz might have been rushed since he felt pressured to contribute to the scumhunt. I'm unsure about Xatalos. While he have done a couple of potential scumslips he feels a tad to vocal for a mafia member. And those slips can just have been the result of bad reasoning, even though I doubt it. HiroPro also comes across as a bit suspiscious. The way he has just popped in a couple of times. Both of the times short after someone called him out as lurking. It makes me feel he is actively lurking. I would like HiroPro to write more, but for now I think I'll go with Xatalos as my prime suspect. That comment about Dittert being a "confused townie" adds fuel to the fire that you attempting to make "being confused" a state where everything is forgiven - there should never be free passes for being confused/newb, not for you, not for Dittert. I also have to wonder how I am now your "prime suspect", although earlier you jumped eagerly on my case against ArcticFox. You also mentioned ONLY me as your suspect, for some reason. I want to hear some reasonable excuse for this. Am I truly the biggest/only Mafia read you have so far for making a slightly faulty case to get things going? ##Unvote ##Vote: vonKlaust I also definitely want HiroPro, Dittert, yomi and trumpetarn to post more. If you are town, there is nothing to lose by being active, and everything to lose by being inactive. There are 3 posts by vonKlaust quoted here. In none of these does vonKlaust actually mention the ArcticFox case, OR vonKlaust's suspicion of Xatalos. Xatalos's case was based on a completely different basis. This means that HiroPro DID dive into vonKlaust's filter. It is, once again, either exceptionally bad play or wilfull misrepresentation of vonKlaust. Misrepresentation is one of the worst scumtells in the game (or so I have been told by Bugs, who I trust on mafia matters). Conclusion, Hiro is either playing negligently badly here, or he is willfully misrepresenting vonKlaust in the hope of making it stick. The reason I thought he could be town is because when his case had been destroyed, he was willing to kiss and make up. However, there's no reason a scumbag would want to be stuck tunneling on a case nobody believes. Especially when he realises that he has screwed it up pretty badly (as he clearly realised: we see that from the backpeddling and excusing himself). He then lurks a bit until he can bandwagon on BroodKing. He NEVER takes a stance on Willz vs. Yomi, conveniently coming back from class after BroodKing has derped. Note the timing on the posts. He comes back from class in time to vote, but after it makes no difference anymore. It could of course be a complete coincidence, but it could also be a lurker coming out of hiding in order to vote and not get modkilled. The only thing of use in his filter is the case on Xatalos, which I don't really have time to analyse right now. I need to post this in time to convince town that HiroPro is scum. Know at the very least, that even if the case is not misrepresenting Xatalos and is completely honest, the Dittert-HiroPro connection is pretty strong. Here are their mutual soft defenses: + Show Spoiler [Hiro-Dittert defenses] + On April 13 2012 06:49 HiroPro wrote: Dittert's posting is not that of mafia. He made a silly suggestion and then backed off it, much more indicative of inexperienced town. Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 05:01 Acrofales wrote: Please tell me who you think is scummy and why? Read better. Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote: Hiro has offered nothing substantial as well, bandwagoning on the suspicions of Xatalos. Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious). Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:47 BroodKingEXE wrote: On April 13 2012 06:44 willz22912 wrote: On April 13 2012 06:39 BroodKingEXE wrote: We have to be careful about releasing scumlists though, as they give the mafia can use them to guide their KP. What do you mean by this? The idea of sharing scumlists is to build a consensus among town to reach a majority to successfully lynch someone. If multiple people think someone is scummy, there is a reason, and should be shared, even if it's misguided or incorrect because it builds/causes discussion. Mafia look at the scum lists and figure out who has the best sense of who they are. They then kill them This is beyond dumb. Why would mafia kill people who appear scummy. That does not hurt town in any way. If anything it helps town, by narrowing down possible people to lynch. On April 13 2012 06:54 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 06:49 Acrofales wrote: I think all our scum lists are quite similar at the moment. I have dittert as a scumspect and am not as suspicious of trumpetarm: I find dittert's few posts more suspect than trumpetarm's, who seems to at least be trying to contribute. Why do you say that trumpetarm's post contribute more than dittert's? All he's said was that the pressure votes were useless and that Xatalos may be town or sneaky mafia. On April 13 2012 08:20 HiroPro wrote: Show nested quote + On April 13 2012 08:09 BroodKingEXE wrote: On April 13 2012 07:57 HiroPro wrote: What actually happened: 1. Xatalos made a case. 2. I supported the case. 3. I no longer supported the case. 4. I started to susspect Xatalos. Alright, I see this. But if Xatalos is your main suspect, I'm still wondering why you never voted for him. And by the way: First you voted Xatalos. Later you wrote: Please explain to me how I am bandwagoning onto Xatalos when I am the only person that is voting for him and the first person to outright say that he is scum (Kharad gave a very wishy-washy response where he said that Xatalos is slightly suspicious). Then, without ever writing anything about that you're starting to doubt your suspicions or anything along those lines: ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: vonKlaust Isn't this exactly what you're accusing me of? 1. Xatalos makes bad case. 2. I vote for Xatalos. 3. Broodking asks why I'm "bandwagoning Xatalos" (lololol) 4. I respond 5. Xatalos makes good case. 6. I trust Xatalos more and see similar suspicious behavior as Xatalos does in vonKaust. I vote for vonKlaust. The problem I have with your case against Xatalos was that Xatalos never had the bandwagon to begin with. People saw it as pretty useless information after they reread it, and it was pretty much dead from there. I viewed it as pure misguided case, I am wondering what made it different for you? What makes you think that Xatalos is more scummy than Dittert per say? Obviously I don't still view Xatalos as a mafia read. The reason why I first thought that Xatalos was more scummy in comparison to people like Dittert, was that Xatalos was an experienced player; it seemed unlikely that he would make a bad case like that. This is Dittert's first game; I would expect him to say something silly early on (RNG voting). Since then he hasn't yet posted much; so I can't really give much of a view on Dittert. On April 14 2012 07:51 HiroPro wrote: Willz - I agree with his logic about trumpetarm/dittert having similar posting early on, silly to differentiate between them. Seemed very logical about the dispute between myself and vonKlaust. kind of defensive about dittert's vote on him (seems overly bothered that someone might tunnel him), (especially considering that no one else seems to agree with Dittert's general reads/ideas). I like the fact that he was against broodking's idea of concealing scum reads. When it looked like he was going to be lynched though instead of seeming defensive, he was much more helpful for town (posting his general reads and talking about targets after he flips green) Overall, I have a null read on willz; I don't like how he was so defensive about Dittert's vote on him (and the general weird interaction with him saying I'm just trying to help Dittert out), but at the same time he does post his opinions on other people and he has a general town demeanor by focusing on making/responding to cases. BroodKingEXE - Early on spent a lot of time discussing policy - not much to read into him from that portion of the day. Makes a vote on Dittert without much of a case (based on Dittert voting for lurkers, not really something that is overly scummy). Argument about hiding scum reads very anti-town in my opinion; without sharing those reads, town cannot make good votes. Don't really understand why he wanted to consolidate voting so early. Unvotes Dittert when Dittert starts posting again. Votes for willz saying that he is trying to shoot down other people's posts and is denying open discussion (very strange in my opinion because BroodKing himself posted something similar saying that people should not give out scum reads because mafia might kill them). Voting for yomi because he says he doesn't want mafia to switch and swing the vote (even though he says that he believes willz is more likely to be scum). Scum read on BroodKing overall - I don't like the posts where he says not to share scum reads. The vote and case on willz is very strange, since a lot of the things he accusses willz of are similar to what BroodKing himself has been doing, and I don't really understand the vote switch onto yomi - to me it seems more like BroodKing was worried that willz was looking townie to other people and thus switched to a new target. yomi - A lot of yomi's posting seems to be calling out various people as mafia without providing solid reasoning. I don't agree with vote on Dittert (Dittert seems much more like new town to me than mafia (RNG proposal is not really something to lynch over). Talking about ignoring various people in the thread because he doesn't like them is not town behavior at all. Yomi is scummy in my opinion. ##Vote: BroodKingEXE Yeah, I know the last one is stretching it, but included for the sake of completeness On April 16 2012 15:17 Dittert wrote: Acro - Like I said before, I don't really have too much of an idea about who is the 3rd mafia. My best guess right now is Xatalos, mostly because of this lie/misdirect: Show nested quote + On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote: I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well. That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug. My interpretation of ArcticFox's reads: shot at night, so maybe look into Yomi, Willz, imallison, Xatalos. Slight suspicion of HiroPro as a lurker. The last is also a pretty soft defense, but it could be Dittert trying to avoid suspicion of HiroPro PS. On a completely unrelated sidenote, I am getting pretty damned good at BBCode. | ||
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I have thought about yesterday and realised that a couple of my assumptions about mafia behaviour are probably too strong. I have been focusing on the mafia agenda of getting townies lynched. I reread Incognito's general guide and realised I have been focusing too much on trying to find mafia defending each other. That may not even have been necessary. Lets take another look at the D2 events. The first thing that happened was that Dittert came under pressure. Regardless of whether Dittert is town, or scum, there was plenty of time in the day for mafia to turn that around. HiroPro posted his suspicions of Xatalos. At the time there were two possible explanations: HiroPro was town and convinced he had a scumread on Xatalos, or HiroPro was scum and pushing Xatalos for his own agenda. We now know that the former was the case. The second event was that the suspicions of town moved from Dittert to Xatalos and the town went completely silent. This seems to me to lead to one of three inevitable conclusions: 1. Xatalos is town and mafia was content to just let the lynch happen. 2. Xatalos is scum and mafia was hoping someone like me stepped in... or were waiting a little bit longer to do it themselves. 3. Xatalos and Acrofales are scumbuddies. Now, I happen to know that the third scenario is false, but feel free to convince yourselves of that fact. I'll be here to answer all your questions and accusations. I thought I had the game completely figured out, but I clearly don't and other people's opinions are most welcome. That leaves the former two as possibilities. I am slightly inclined toward the former, because the second situation implies a LOT of risk. The third event of the day was that I posted this reasoning, and drew the conclusion that HiroPro and Dittert were a possible scum axis. This was clearly wrong, but I still think my reasoning about Xatalos is probably right. Looking over the scum guides and the two games I have played as scum, mafia really dislike to put their opinion out there. There are LOTS of things I don't like about Xatalos' play, but there is one thing he has undeniably done: he is flapping his mouth about every little thing he can think of in this game. He has either improved his scumplay IMMENSELY since GoT mafia, or he is town. I am not normally a fan of meta-arguments, but his play is so different from in GoT, that he is either a chameleon, or town. That leaves the last little bit of the game yesterday. Everybody jumped on the HiroPro bandwagon because of my convincing arguments and my rather hastily thrown together case (and other people's cases too). The only conclusion I can draw from that at the moment (I promise more in my nightly reads post) is that HiroPro did not play his town role particularly well. That was the real eye opener to me: I have been using reasoning and logic to analyse others' playstyle and rational approach to this game. I have been focusing too hard on what people are saying and not when they are saying it. I have some new suspicions, that I promise to post in my nightly reads. However, before the night ends, I want to do something I was actually rather opposed to. I want to call out a possible vigilante to please shoot Dittert. Regardless of his alignment, he is not helping town. Here is my case on why Dittert needs to be shot, regardless of his alignment. Because I am completely and utterly null on Dittert, I will assume the worst case scenario, which is that he is town. Tomorrow we will be at lylo. That means we lynch scum, or lose. This, as someone (willz, I think) pointed out, is regardless of whether we shoot a townie or not. Conclusion: the vig MUST shoot tonight, and imho he should shoot Dittert. Dittert has not been contributing. He has been attacked and defended a number of times by different people, making him a good source of information. However, most importantly is the vote count. If we are onto scum tomorrow, scum will NOT vote for him. Assuming all scum is alive, that leaves 3 votes on a townie. Dittert has guaranteed his absence from the voting the last two days. His last post on D1 was at 22:54 (9 hours before the deadline) and his last post on D2 was at 00:53 (7 hours before the deadline). Both times town switched in the last few hours before the deadline and Dittert was not around to comment, steer us back on track or agree and vote with town. That means that if we find scum after Dittert has left to work, it is one less vote to count on switching, leaving it 4 town votes and 3 scum votes: the exact same situation as if we shoot him. If we shoot someone ELSE who turns out to be town, that's 3 town votes and 3 scum votes. Ergo, a race against the clock to get our votes on scum before they vote for the townie (or blindly following whoever Dittert votes for, which I am unwilling to do). So, vig, either be 100% certain you are shooting scum, or shoot Dittert: 1. He has a good chance of being scum (50/50 in my book at the moment, which is remarkably one of my best scum reads: my confidence has been damaged since my completely wrong read yesterday and am in the process of reevaluating) 2. He would give town some good info by flipping 3. He is a liability to town due to his prolonged absense around the deadline (timezones suck, I know). | ||
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On April 17 2012 07:59 HiroPro wrote: The Last Will and Testament of HiroPro Given that this is the last will of a townie, I think it is only fair I address it. Lynch Xatalos. Easy step. Obviously you do that first thing in the daytime. Don't listen to anything he has to say. Don't address him or tell him anything; just lynch him. I don't disagree that Xatalos needs another look at. I am not convinced he's town, but as I said in my previous post, I find it very unlikely that he his scum, given the complete lack of people willing to defend him from Hiro's accusations, which was quite a good case. While I was not expecting a chainsaw defense, I would have expected someone to refer back to Dittert and why he was so scummy once the Xatalos bandwagon was going nicely. The problem with a Xatalos scum is thus not that he is unscummy, it's that he seems to be playing alone. Add that to his completely different meta and I am for now willing to believe Xata is town. DO NOT LISTEN TO WHAT ACROFALES SAYS. I know many of you have Acrofales as a very strong town read. I don't; Acrofales has been a scum read in my notes since day 1. I don't have the time to fully outline a case against Acrofales, but I'll try to summarize my thoughts here. Read through his filter closely. Please do. I agree that my analysis on HiroPro was completely and utterly wrong. I found a group of 5 players in which I thought it was likely the scum was hiding (I was wrong in discarding Dittert, so it was actually 6 players). I may have gotten confirmation bias, or I just had a completely faulty read on HiroPro because his playstyle is quite erratic. In either case, I made a mistake and realise that my pushing the case on a townie makes me suspect. I don't want to be blindly sheeped. I want everybody here to play the game actively, posting their reads and analyses, asking each other questions and trying to hunt scum. There was quite a lack of scumhunting in D2. Acrofales does not post actual analysis; instead what he does is call out certain people who are not posting and then proceed to make "connections" between certain people who he will arbitrarily label as scummy. Huh? I don't think you have understood my posts at ALL if that is what you think. If you don't understand the logic in one of my posts, I am happy to explain it, but I have so far posted exactly what I am understanding of people's play and motivations. There is definitely nothing "arbitrary" about it. Nevertheless, I am not going to argue that my non-arbitrariness is townie. I make very deliberate posts regardless of my alignment. The townie part comes from the fact that rather than searching for the player who I can most easily label as scum and focusing on his bad behaviour, as I do as scum, I have been actively analysing ALL players in the game and trying to find which is scummiest, even if the case is not an easy one to make. By basing all of his cases on these "connections", Acrofales avoids taking responsibility for votes and reads. Everything is already set out for him and indisputable. Au contraire, my dear fellow. I lay out my assumptions and the entire logical reasoning. Everybody can follow it and draw their own conclusions. I would be VERY happy to be discussing this with anyone. I believe my connections make sense, but my logic is NOT infallible as imallison kindly pointed out. I would love for people to poke holes in it. It should also not be taken ALONE. If you look at the way I used the information: I analysed the connections, drew my conclusions and went over people's filters to see who I thought was most likely to be scum. Unfortunately, I was completely wrong on that account. And with me, at least 3 other townies (7 votes, of which 3 may or may not be scum). These connection posts do not help town; all they do is get people speculating on which people are sided with certain other people and thus must be either both town or both mafia. It distracts from actual reads and scum-hunting. I once again disagree. Voting analysis to find connections is a valid style of scumhunting and has been applied successfully in quite a variety of mafia games here, although it works best after actually finding a mafia. It has a high degree of speculation, but lets be honest, so does textual analysis of someone's filter. Now I know I may not convince you, so here is people discussing it on mafiascum: clicky. I do think that my assumptions may be wrong. I can think of some reasons to voteswitch as mafia, if the two targets are both innocent. This guy's role is the deceiver. + Show Spoiler [meme] + I have no clear reads on the third mafia member (and the small reads I can post on the people I have not mentioned are not worth posting). Good luck searching for him. If you think there is some sort of connection between myself and Dittert (aka been listening too much to Acrofales/yomi), get rid of that thought. My flip shows absolutely nothing about Dittert - I have no connection whatsoever to him. He is neither strongly town nor strongly mafia in my view. That being said, I have a slight town read on him. Ignore the first 2 days and evaluate him based on what you see in the coming day/night period. DO NOT LYNCH HIM TOMORROW IF FOR SOME REASON YOU THINK HE IS MAFIA (Lynch Xatalos, then Acrofales). DO NOT LYNCH FOR INFORMATION. Focus on what people say, how they say it, and go with your strongest mafia read. I agree we should definitely not lynch for information. I wish you had posted your unprocessed reads, rather than this will, but I just died in SS Mafia and know what it feels like to have not disseminated all the information you had and can understand you were strapped for time. I am sorry I found you scummy, but I still don't see much wrong with my reasoning (except for the factual errors that vK pointed out). | ||
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@Willz. I am still on the fence about you. You got active and posted your reads when you were under heavy pressure. Since then you have gone dormant again. Top 3 scum reads please. @KB. I looked over your other Newbie game and you seemed to be a bit more active in D2 there, engaging people in conversation all over the place and more of a leader than a follower, as opposed to this D2. I have gone into a what-if scenario where we have so far been completely wrong in our scumreads and your name pops up on my scumdar. I don't think there is any harm in continuing the analysis and scumhunting in the night this time, because mafia can kill whoever they like as long as they get to manipulate tomorrow's vote. So. Scum top 3 and why. @Xata. While my analysis indicates you're town, your posting has been completely hopeless. Your filter is unreadable and you put far too much stock in speculation about mafia motives. So on the one hand I think you're town, on the other you have some very scummy traits. I would really like a non-waffly post from you clearly stating who you think is scum, who you think is town and why. @funcnode. I liked your play at the end of D2, it was very sensible, but I still don't have a good idea of what you are. Please keep posting. @everybody else. Please be more active. Ask each other questions, post your reads. Don't let mafia hide in inactivity. | ||
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On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. I completely agree and will be posting actively! However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: Show nested quote + On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote: ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting. ##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. We can in no way shape or form assume Hiro did such a thing. However, scum fearing that a medic would protect me is a plausible reason not to shoot me. I agree that my goodbye post summarised Arctic's death quite succinctly. I cannot prove the second situation is not true unless I die, but the mere fact that situation is in your minds should've made Willz think before posting he posted the rest of his WIFOM. Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike. Agreed about the DT bit. Why are you linking the DT bit to his defense of me, though? If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.) Hrmmm, how about this for a catch 22 scenario. However, this is particularly insidious wifom. It is wifom about stuff that hasn't even happened yet. You are planting the idea, so that if I am not shot, all you have to do is refer back here and say: see, he must be scum. I refuse to wifom your wifom, but suffice it to say this awarded you qutie a few points on my scumometer. Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments. Bingo, another catch 22. If I (and Xata) were to have the same style as in GoT mafia, we would clearly be mafia: we have the same style. However, by changing our style we are ALSO clearly mafia, because we would totally have changed up our playstyle! The whole point why meta-arguments work is because it is VERY difficult to change your playstyle. In other words: confirmation bias much? They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. And another catch 22? If I act townie I am clearly scum, because I am NOT doing anything scummy! The whole point of this game is that mafia does not want to help scumhunt, wants to shit up the thread and wants to stay hidden. That case can be made against Xatalos, but I am finding it harder and harder to read him accurately. Suffice it to say, his playstyle is EXTREMELY different from GoT. He is also only displaying one of the many scum tells: he shits up the thread with useless wifom. Other than that he is (hyper)active and willing to commit to his cases (and makes them. I challenge you to find a single focused case by Xatalos in GoT mafia). Which reminds me, Willz, have you committed to anything yet, this game, except for your erroneous BroodKing case? Willz managed to drop off my scumometer in the whole D2 debacle, but this post just reminded me of why I fingered him as scum in the first place. Thanks! Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter. HiroPro was town, not an oracle. If you and your scumbuddies really manage to convince the town to lynch me, you will see that a townie can still be completely and absolutely 100% wrong: I was on HiroPro and he is about me. | ||
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On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. | ||
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On April 18 2012 02:28 yomi wrote: Here's one thing we know about the mafia: they are good so scenarios like xatalos going for this risky/aggressive playstyle with high volume posting is very possible as is acro trying to come out and be a town leader. that they are just lurking seems not so likely anymore. I believe we have been manipulated into the poor situation we find ourselves in. I agree that the mafia is good this game, but that is not a reason to give up. Yes, mafia could be hiding in the way you say. However, go over people's filters and look at who you REALLY think is mafia and post about that. This is a very noncommittal post. Lets look at how this plays out: Yomi is town: Acro gets lynched and flips town. Yomi loses Yomi is town: Acro gets lynched and flips scum. Yomi is forgotten because he never took a stance on the matter. If you think I'm scum, come out and say why. I admit that technically, I could be scum and hiding behind my "town leader" facade, however I am a townie who is really doing his best to help this town to victory. Yomi is scum: Acro gets lynched and flips town. Yomi's light suspicion flies under the radar. Yomi is scum: Acro gets lynched and flips scum. Yomi points to his light suspicion and says "see, I knew he could be flying under the radar". Same case can be made for your light suspicion on Xatalos. I currently don't have Yomi high on my scumdar, but winning is a group effort. I can't make all the reads by myself. I tried with HiroPro and was horribly wrong. | ||
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On April 18 2012 02:56 yomi wrote: Was hiropro not killed by mafia? No. He was killed by 7 people. However you play that, there's a town majority there. | ||
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On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? | ||
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On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote: On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
On April 18 2012 03:34 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote: On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote: On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere. Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong. The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer. I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless. So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance. If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz ) and CLAIM the shot! | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
KB: any take on HiroPro's will? And the night happenings? I have you as a town read, so stay active and fight the apathy! Think of Newbie VI: you started the game lynching two townies and fought back to victory! We can do this. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
On April 18 2012 04:08 imallinson wrote: Show nested quote + On April 18 2012 03:57 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 03:34 imallinson wrote: On April 18 2012 03:29 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 03:21 imallinson wrote: On April 18 2012 03:11 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 02:23 imallinson wrote: On April 18 2012 01:57 Acrofales wrote: On April 18 2012 01:11 imallinson wrote: My proposal for the scum team: Scum #1: Xatalos I have been very suspicious of Xatalos since fairly on Day 2. He has managed to confuse everyone throughout the entire game by posting way too much. I was behind lynching him Day 2 but he and Acrofales convinced me (and a lot of other people) to switch to Hiro. I think I let Acrofales townness play too much of a role in my decisions. He is still looking like the scummiest person here and I propose we lynch him tomorrow. Scum #2: Acrofales Given that I have a strong feeling that Xatalos is scum, I start to wonder why Acrofales went after Hiro. Either he is town and honestly thought Hiro was scum or he is scum and stepped in to save Xatalos (an OMGUS by proxy almost). I will admit Acrofales looks the most town at the moment and seems like a very good town player who made a mistake. However it is possible he is also good scum who has managed to make himself look town and sway the vote to his liking (I realise this is WIFOM but it is relevant to my next point). So why would Acrofales go and lose some of his position? The only reason to do that would be to save a teammate. It's risky but getting the mislynch means they are very close to victory. Obviously this argument depends a lot on Xatalos being scum so I don't think Acrofales is someone good to lynch Day 3. If Xatalos does flip scum though he will be my #1 target the next day. Scum #3 Scum 3 I am a lot less sure of so I will go through all the possibilities. Dittert: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales and Xatalos are pushing him to get vig shot tonight. I find this interesting in itself because if we do lynch scum tomorrow, having someone town get vig shot would be very beneficial for scum because it would still leave us having to get a correct lynch. yomi: This seems exceptionally unlikely at this point. There is no reason for scum to lynch on a fellow scum Day 1 when there are alternatives. vonKlaust: This probably makes the most sense to me. Apart from Xatalos making a bad case against him Day 1, which was never going anywhere, they have left vonKlaust alone, not implicating him in any way. I'm starting to find him very suspicious because he is flying well under everyone's radars. I'd say he is a good candidate for mafia #3 Funcmode: It's hard to get a read on you because you haven't posted a lot (I know some of this isn't your fault but you didn't post much after you joined either). However I don't see anything that makes you look particularly scummy at the moment. Willz: This doesn't make much sense because Acrofales was the person who started getting the vote going on Willz Kharad: I still think you are probably town (you have moved to my #1 town spot now) but I am much more wary of that now due to me being sure Acrofales was town. So my finished scum list, with shiny probabilities too (33% is a neutral read): #1: Xatalos (90%) #2: Acrofales (70% if Xatalos is scum) (33% if not) #3: vonKlaust (60% if #1 & #2 are scum) (40% otherwise) Okay, I like that you're posting If we forget about connections for a second, who would be your second-highest scum read. Because, apparently I am only scum if Xatalos flips red. If he flips green, then town is dead and I don't even get a chance. So, imagine Xatalos is green (despite thinking it's unlikely), who else might be scum at this point? At lylo we need to find 1 scum, not 3. That was one of the major things that I did wrong in thinking HiroPro was scum yesterday. My nightly reads will do the same: go back to basics and analyse players individually for scummy traits. No more connections, we worry about those AFTER we find the first scum. Ignoring any connections. I'd say #2 is Dittert and #3 is Willz pretty much for the same reasons you are suspicious of them. Although this hits the same problem as the connection stuff. If my #1 scum read isn't scum it's not going to matter who I think is #2 because we would already have lost. No. This is not the same. This is your reads RIGHT NOW. You are suspicious of Xatalos, Dittert and Willz. That is good info to have. At the moment we have to lynch 1 scum. If we do that, THEN we can look at his connections. If we lynch Xatalos and he flips scum, then my defense of him was my second giant error of the game. But we make that connection when it happens. Keep an open mind for the moment and don't get stuck in what-if scenarios. Analyse the past, not the future. I am interested in knowing why you're suspicious of Dittert. I said I draw a blank on Dittert. I think it's quite probable that he's scum. He has not contributed anything to the town, except a stubborn insistence that Willz and Yomi are scum, without actually trying to convince town. I made a mistake reading Hiro's empty filter and strange hops of reasoning as a scum filter and refuse to make that same mistake: I am thus thoroughly confused by Dittert. My case for vig shooting him is far more pragmatic than that. Although, at the moment I am thinking Willz is scum again and would be happy to vote alongside "crazy ol' Dittert". So. Why the read as Dittert being scum? While I'm trying to coax people out of silence. Dittert, you updated your case on Willz at the start of D2 and I have not much to comment on that, but what do you think of Yomi now? Still scum? Or is someone else Willz' scumbuddy? Because he doesn't contribute much besides his constant insistence that Willz is scum. He started of being really meek and unsure of his ideas then Night 1 starts berating everyone for being idiots and did the same Night 2. This reeks of trying to make yourself seems pro town because you never voted for the townie that got lynched. His posting doesn't make much sense to me if he is town. Did HiroPro's posting make sense as a townie? No, but we can't just dismiss everyone's posting as "well they might just be playing town badly" or we get absolutely nowhere. Thank you. However, starting D3 with everybody voting Dittert, because he is a non-contributing lurker is going to kill discussion just as surely as it did on D2. I am completely in favour of Dittert getting shot, because he really isn't contributing and I realise that I was wrong yesterday in calling for the vig to hold his shot if he wasn't sure. Regardless of whether you're sure, discussing a Dittert lynch will kill discussion and we have no real clue whether we're right or wrong. The problem at lylo is that we NEED to lynch scum. All we know about Dittert is that he WILL behave erratically. I do NOT want to lynch erratic behaviour, I want to lynch scum. If we have a vig shot, Dittert needs to be killed. This will also give a crapton of info on Willz' alignment, who is currently skyrocketing my scumometer. I trust this town to continue without me, but it must NOT discuss a Dittert lynch, as it is pointless. So yeah: vig, if you exist, I urge you to shoot Dittert, regardless of alliance. If the vig is Dittert himself: shoot your strongest scumread (hint, Willz ) and CLAIM the shot! Yeah I'm all for not discussing a Dittert lynch, it won't get us anywhere just like Day 2. It's why I was talking about Xatalos. I'm wondering why you think Willz is the more likely than Xatalos to be scum. I'm worried I'm tunnelling on Xatalos and would like to look at alternatives. Okay, it was going to be part of my night deadline post, but I'm no longer very afraid of being shot. I am quite confident this town will manage to pull out a victory without me (a lot more so than during D2. My giant mistake has knocked my ego down a peg and I want to focus tonight on getting people posting and active). If mafia shoots me then my spurr on to be active and scumhunt is given extra importance. If mafia doesn't shoot me then I believe they will live to regret it. I believe I was on the right track on D1. However, his defense made a lot of sense at the time and he was an active poster. My getting drunk and going absent obviously didn't help and the short bit that I posted was true at the time: his defense made sense, his case against BroodKing didn't, but I didn't have the conviction I did when I posted the case. In the D2 events I sorta forgot about Willz. He lapsed into inactivity together with everybody else and as I said before: posts can be analysed, silence cannot. He did make + Show Spoiler [this] + On April 16 2012 23:37 willz22912 wrote: @ Dittert Hi again, guess you're not willing to let yourself die just yet after all? (What was the point of the martyrdom post then when we all suck according to you and feelings shouldn't be considered in this game?) Also helpful note, you never unvoted yourself after your martyrdom post so the bot that checks votes will still count it on yourself, so you better revote me and first do a ##Unvote:. Also considering I'm not one of the two likely lynches for this day, that vote sure will come in handy in a tiebreaker situation! Well, at least you're consistent I guess, which is something I can't say for Xatalos. However will you please answer one thing? If you like to point out lies so much, can you correct your statement here: Show nested quote + On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote: @Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). So basically, you were wrong (we were all wrong) for doubting ArcticFox, since he's the only pro-town player that has flipped. Arctic had many reasons to be suspicious of you as well, but you're going to ignore that because part of his filter mentions myself and Yomi, and that's what you want to use in your case, ignoring the part that incriminates you. So you claim to be consistent in your tunneling of me, fine, I'm assuming you've read my filter so you've seen that I've been consistent in defending you because I think you're town and that town should always try and defend other town. I could be wrong because I don't know for sure, but all your actions can be explained to either being a newb town or a scummy Mafia. Secondly, your basis on your original and continuing suspicion on me is a lie, I have never pushed for your mis-lynch, and for you to claim otherwise would be to put words in my mouth. My vote on Xatalos is pretty much shooting in the dark for his motivations for pushing Yomi and switching to myself after Acro's case and then defending me. I just like Hiro's case against him and the spam he has done so far hasn't really helped much, I am also using the reasoning that Xatalos flipping would give us more information than Dittert flipping considering Xatalos has been much more spammy and all over the place. This is not good reasoning, but then again a lot of you voted Dittert for martyring himself and now that he's back, you're willing to change all the voting. I'll be in class for most of today, back at 6pm EST to see what's happened. + Show Spoiler [Once again, the vig shot] + It pains me to continue to call for a vig shot on Dittert, but flipping him now gives us information at no real risk (I am sorry to be harsh, but Dittert has contributed very little this game, even though his read on Willz could be spot on). A vig shooting Willz means that if I am wrong and Willz flips town, we have shot a potentially valuable asset. Given that reads are never 100%, I think shooting Dittert is currently the best option. He promised to be more active and assertive in D2. Instead we get this: + Show Spoiler [wishy washy] + On April 17 2012 07:07 willz22912 wrote: I just got back from class, took a read through the thread. I'm willing to change my vote off Xatalos, I never really had a good reason to lynch him today other than fishing for information from his flip. I've said before that I saw HiroPro as a little suspicious, he hasn't really contributed nearly as much as other people and seems to fly under the radar, the first time I took note of him was the case he posted against Xatalos D2 that got that bandwagon started. I'm willing to admit that my read of Dittert as newb town can really be called into question now and that I may have been blinded by my willingness to see what I wanted to see based on the actions so far. I can see the connection between HiroPro and Dittert, and I'm beginning to question how townie a person would be for consistently tunneling one person all game. However, since we can only lynch one person today, which is it going to be? Dittert or HiroPro seems to be the split. If Hiro flips red it gives a lot of weight to the assumptions that Dittert is red as well. I'm still hesitant to write off Dittert(I don't know, I've held onto this opinion all game of him being newbie town, I'd be really sad to be proven wrong) so I'd prefer to vote Hiro for now and let his flip decide what I think about Dittert. So accordingly: ##Unvote: Xatalos ##Vote: HiroPro Finally, the main thing I think we need is information to either ferret out remaining scum or help clear suspicious town, this was the main reason I voted Xatalos, I felt like his flip would at least give a lot more information than a Dittert one. However with Acrofales connection reasoning, it could be possible Hiro/Dittert are both scum, but we need to lynch one of them to confirm, and Hiro flipping scum would incriminate Dittert more so than the other way around imo. This looks like complete apathy to who is lynched, hidden under a thin veneer of "we get information". Granted, this is not much of a tell. The bandwagon on Hiro was starting to go and my case was apparently very convincing. This post has an acceptable townie explanation, so it is more a feeling: he does not seem interested in finding scum. He focuses on the "information" part. I was convinced Hiro was scum. The information comes automatically with lynching scum. Just look at it, we lynched Hiro, he was green (blue) and that gave us NO information. At the moment even funcnode flipping scum would give us something to work with, but almost nobody gives information when flipping green, unless they were HEAVILY accused at some point during the game (so people are rightfully suspicious of me and my push against Hiro). Now all of this would probably have slipped right by, if he had not gone out of the way to pre-wifom the night kill. That post is EXCEEDINGLY suspicious and I have made that case + Show Spoiler [here] + On April 18 2012 01:52 Acrofales wrote: Okay, I see I missed a post by Willz and it is an interesting one too. I am sorry, but this post reaks of wifom. I can smell this setup a mile away and I would like to show the entire town how it works. Show nested quote + On April 17 2012 23:18 willz22912 wrote: If you're under the impression you will be shot, feel free to post this night. I completely agree and will be posting actively! Show nested quote + However, the following players are under suspicion, myself, Xatalos, Yomi, Dittert. Any of these players being shot would not make sense in Mafia's line of thinking, we are too easy cases to push for a mis-lynch. Acro you better start posting your heart out if you think you're going to be killed off today, as I quote your lovely farewell post to Arctic: On April 15 2012 08:04 Acrofales wrote: ArcticFox: too townie to live, too quiet to get protected. He will be missed. Now people. Lets get scumhunting. ##vote Dittert Now that town has successfully killed their own doctor (/facepalm) we can probably assume that Hiro probably medic'd Acro N1 because he had the most towncred among us. There are two explanations for Arctic being shot instead, Mafia assumed there was a medic and Acro would be on the most obvious target, so they switched to target #2 Arctic, or Acro is Mafia and they knew Arctic was either on the right track or the town with the most towncred. We can in no way shape or form assume Hiro did such a thing. However, scum fearing that a medic would protect me is a plausible reason not to shoot me. I agree that my goodbye post summarised Arctic's death quite succinctly. I cannot prove the second situation is not true unless I die, but the mere fact that situation is in your minds should've made Willz think before posting he posted the rest of his WIFOM. Show nested quote + Also I find this defense by Xatalos of Acrofales troubling. Especially the DT talk, DT cannot be claimed at this point and proven, Mafia can easily counter-claim, all you're doing is making it easier for the Mafia to bluesnipe, very untownlike. Agreed about the DT bit. Why are you linking the DT bit to his defense of me, though? Show nested quote + If Acro doesn't get shot tonight, there is no other explanation other than that he is Mafia, he has been too visible for a town to be left alive this long. If Acro gets shot tonight, then Xatalos is probably Mafia for trying to buddy/defend Acro so hard (I will add more on to this as night rolls over, have to head to class soon.) Hrmmm, how about this for a catch 22 scenario. However, this is particularly insidious wifom. It is wifom about stuff that hasn't even happened yet. You are planting the idea, so that if I am not shot, all you have to do is refer back here and say: see, he must be scum. I refuse to wifom your wifom, but suffice it to say this awarded you qutie a few points on my scumometer. Show nested quote + Don't forget Acrofales and Xatalos were both scum in GoT Mafia (which they won) so they have good experience of what to do as Mafia. They also can play 100% completely opposite of what they did in GoT because of meta arguments. Bingo, another catch 22. If I (and Xata) were to have the same style as in GoT mafia, we would clearly be mafia: we have the same style. However, by changing our style we are ALSO clearly mafia, because we would totally have changed up our playstyle! The whole point why meta-arguments work is because it is VERY difficult to change your playstyle. In other words: confirmation bias much? Show nested quote + They've both referenced what "Mafia should do" as part of their thinking, and then pointed out how they couldn't possibly be Mafia because they haven't done what "Mafia should do." This is flimsy reasoning, especially for a newbie game, people make mistakes and not optimal play, we've seen that numerous times in this game, trying to defend yourself by saying this is not what Mafia would do (what Xatalos has done) should not be a good defense. And another catch 22? If I act townie I am clearly scum, because I am NOT doing anything scummy! The whole point of this game is that mafia does not want to help scumhunt, wants to shit up the thread and wants to stay hidden. That case can be made against Xatalos, but I am finding it harder and harder to read him accurately. Suffice it to say, his playstyle is EXTREMELY different from GoT. He is also only displaying one of the many scum tells: he shits up the thread with useless wifom. Other than that he is (hyper)active and willing to commit to his cases (and makes them. I challenge you to find a single focused case by Xatalos in GoT mafia). Which reminds me, Willz, have you committed to anything yet, this game, except for your erroneous BroodKing case? Willz managed to drop off my scumometer in the whole D2 debacle, but this post just reminded me of why I fingered him as scum in the first place. Thanks! Show nested quote + Also notice Xatalos trying to discredit HiroPro's last testament and will, even though he didn't manage to finish his thoughts in time, HiroPro was 100% town, and he may have been on to something. Remember what he said, ignore Xatalos and look at Acro's filter. HiroPro was town, not an oracle. If you and your scumbuddies really manage to convince the town to lynch me, you will see that a townie can still be completely and absolutely 100% wrong: I was on HiroPro and he is about me. I can read nothing useful in this and can explain it in plenty of scummy ways. Building on my D1 case, this makes me very very very suspicious of Willz. To sum it up: 1. Imho, the most scummy post anybody has posted in this thread yet. 2. A lack of activity during D2, despite promising otherwise. 3. Possible apathy about the D2 vote. 4. A strange Willz/Dittert link. I would still like to go back and read Willz' other games (aperture and a noobie game, if I recall), and go over Dittert's case on Willz again, but I need to go and cook. Hopefully I have time before the nightpost. I don't think I'll have time to post a decent nightly reads, but for the possibility I get shot, you will at the very least get my unpolished notes and a brief summary of my top scum reads (which I am having trouble with at the moment. My top 1 is clear, my top 3 is tricky). | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
I don't think it will come as a surprise to anyone that my top 1 scum read is Willz. The reason can be found here. The wifom post is making me think I will be left to live. The opportunity to wifom why I was left alive is just too good and there are plenty of other town targets. Xata and I are surviving the night. KB or vonKlaust is dying. I will address funcnode's criticisms in a future post, I just want to point out that he may be forgiven for misinterpreting the "noob" statement. He missed this post before the game started when I was requesting to join, which is what I was referring to. Other than that I don't find emotional evaluation particularly useful unless it is in eliciting a response. I was F5ing around the time of the post and was dumbfounded for a couple of minutes. I assessed what this meant and realised that people would be very suspect of me. So I posted that. I don't post useless oneliners as town unless I'm trolling. Also, really? "For fucks sake" suggests genuine disappointment? Lol. It is meaningless. How the hell do you get any kind of sincere read out of a textual for fucks sake? You are soft-defending willz here. Why? The rest comes if I live through the night. Back to the nightly reads. Second on my scumlist is Yomi. I have nothing much solid on him at the moment, but some things jumped out at me as suspicious. Specifically, this post: On April 17 2012 06:49 yomi wrote: Looks like we aren't going through on dittert today. Sort of odd but ok. So I am weighing xat vs hiropro. Xat I still think really posts in a mafia way. I still sort of hate this cost/benefit analysis thing he does where he pleads to people's self-interest to vote a certain way. It is just reflective of a general viewpoint towards lynching that the point of it is to survive or to kill which I think is a bit different from how a townie views it. This is a very "emotional" sort of read so it may just be coming from my own admitted total bias against xat. Right when he starts to appeal to my interests to move towards hiro (aka saving him) I cringed and just wanted to vote him even harder. ON THE OTHER HAND!: Who are his teammates? Maybe I am just biased towards myself and egocentric etc whatever but I feel like the xat case originates from me. And was easy to shut down initially. I start going at the guy at a time when I myself don't have a lot of credit and most people are still reading xat as pretty town at this point. I think my arguments against him could have been shouted down pretty easily but they weren't. People kind of sat there on the sidelines and looked at it and let the discussion happen. I just think two mafia players could have shut me down right then and there and no one would be looking at xat today. Hiropro on the other hand has a very very obvious teammate. I went through his filter way back and show him again and again defending ditt. I don't have nearly the patience to substantiate this but my feeling is this is one of the most consistent alignments of any one player towards another so far in the game. I don't know how much dittert reciprocates back though. So I'm still on the fence here. Xat still seems mafia. However, this one time, his cost/benefit analysis of the lynches is I believe correct. There IS more upside to a hiro mafia flip as it gives us a go-ahead play on a lynch tomorrow or even a vigi shot tonight which would put us in a very strong winning position with all the time in the world to route out the remaining mafia player. If he flips town well he wasn't contributing too much anyway. Are we so far behind that we have to go for the double play or lose? 3-7 it is right now? That's not great, they only need one or at most two townies to come with them for a lynch on whomever they choose. Soooooo. Not sure. It could be nothing, but I get the feeling that he has completely forgotten his earlier suspicion of HiroPro here. That was not a bad case at all. In the intervening time HiroPro does nothing to defend himself against it and only says something about Xatalos' post and Arcticfox's suspicions. Why did Yomi drop the HiroPro case so completely in the meantime, as well as the HiroPro-Dittert connection, which HE was the first to put eyes on? Was this distancing himself from a mislynch? I'm not sure, but it is strange. It is currently the best I have to go on. For the third I was going to go with funcnode. This was before his last post. I don't like his last post much at all, but if I die, my green blood will make it all clear and otherwise I will respond tomorrow. Town: Xatalos, KB, vonKlaust and probably imallison. No clue on Dittert. + Show Spoiler [Hopefully not-too-illegible notes] + BroodKingEXE: proposes two policy lynch things for discussion. Being dumb about KharadBanar's pressure vote. Shores up his early game discussion and tries to move it forward. Still nothing, though. DEAD: flipped town KharadBanar: very active at the start, but very careful about wording his opinions. Wants to know about an "opening strategy". KharadBanar shoots down Dittert's proposal. Hard to get a read on. He's active, but not doing anything useful. Points out problems with RNG, but not the main problem, which is THAT IT'S STUPID. Pulls off pressure vote immediately Makes a good defense against my accusations and explains the Hiro "pressure" and voices suspicions of Xatalos. Much better pressure vote on Yomi. Voices his small suspicions rationally. Is easily convinced by my case. Shits on willz's case for good reasons = null tells. Reasonable towards willz. Is convinced by willz's defense and votes hiropro (who he has no real case against, but is second in his scumometer). Is also easily convinced by Xatalos' case against yomi. Looking for consensus surrounding Broodking. Sheeping Dittert vote. Makes a list post. No longer thinks HiroPro is suspicious. Uses a bit of wifom, but his filter analysis is good (and he put a LOT of work into it, more than scum usually does). Uncalled for lists are not normal from scum: there was no pressure on him to make it at all. Decent connection-based analysis, but high wifom. Does not take votes into account in a strong way. Jumps on Xatalos misinterpreting Yomi's post... could be a townie after scum, or a scum driving home the nails in the coffin. Agrees with my analysis post. Uses it to draw a connection to Xatalos. Townometer: iiiii Scumomenter: iii LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 03:42 vonKlaust: agrees on lurker lynch, but is not sure about liars. Pulls noobie card for "no reads" and seems very sincere about it. Thinks Dittert is a nervous noobie. Affirms that he has no reads yet, but in a townie manner. Seems to be the local bullshit detector.. Is very honest about his reads and his mistakes. Has willz as top town. Top scum is "harder": weak suspicion of HiroPro and Xatalos. Comes under fire from Xatalos (and HiroPro. Possible connection there?), but I like his defense. Bit of an OMGUS on HiroPro, but still uses logic. Adds his reasoning to my case on willz. Long back and forth with Xatalos over nothing. No real read. Looks into other people. Posts his findings. Seems very townie in his quandary over willz vs. yomi. First to respond in surprise over brood's flip. I don't like that he just jumped on it without thinking it through. Votes without ever really saying why "what what what WHAT?" is the closest he gets. Is very suspicious of willz during the night. Has a really good point about yomi lurking until under pressure. Makes a list post: rehashes some points already made. Good reads, though. I like what he says on KB. Likes a DITTERT-XATA scumteam. This is interesting, because the dittert/xata bandwagons are already under way. Has a strong scumread on Dittert. Uses my analysis to draw his own conclusions. Townie attitude in trying to figure shit out. Is correctly suspicious of my factual blunder on the Hiro case. Keeps his vote on his strongest scum read, Dittert. Scumometer: ii Townometer: vii LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 03:42 ArcticFox: likes LaL policy. Thinks there won't be lurkers. Explains support for LaL in a good way. Excellent response to Xatalos' post. Suspects vonKlaust for his wishy washy non-play. Townometer: i DEAD. Was town. Posted the usual suspects. Mostly Yomi and willz. Says "Why not go after imallinson as well? Imallinson's filter reads SO scummy right now, it practically drips red." Calls Xatalos out in the night. Suspects Dittert during the night (because of his post). Shot by mafia, so maybe look into Yomi, Willz, imallison, Xatalos. Slight suspicion of HiroPro as a lurker. Dittert: proposes nonsense. Pulling newbie card. Response to light pressure is to OMGUS Willz. He also claims yomi lied, which is dumb. He might just be another Risen, but it's too hard to distinguish shitty town from mafia. Try to keep an open mind when reading him. Posting very deluded, makes some interesting points about Willz, but apologizes immediately for being a noob. Seems very convinced in the triad of willz, yomi, arcticfox and is reaching to make it stick. Town reads are really strange. KB makes some sense, but why Brood and imallison? Extends his case on willz. Makes a really really angry post about the brood lynch. Nothing constructive and shitting on town. Gets everybody's backs up. Next up, he martyrs himself. Gives a plausible explanation for his anger when coming to his senses. He still thinks willz is scum and builds slowly on his case. WIFOMing willz' reason for defending him is a bit strange, but it's making more sense than he has so far in the thread. Picks up on an interesting thing Xata said. Later is convinced Xata is scum. Makes another non-contribution calling everybody stupid. His lack of conviction is worth shooting. Townometer: iii Scumometer: iii LAST UPDATE April 18 @ 05:09 Willz: shooting down bad proposals and pricking through bullshit by KharadBanar, including his "pressure" vote. Shoots Xatalos' case to smithereens with good reasoning. Is extremely aggressive in his reads. He is either town, or playing mafia like I do. Very suspicious of imallison. Thinks Xatalos is town. Calls out lurkers. Says he's patient to allow noobs to get used to the game. Takes it upon himself to police the thread. Says he's "defending" Dittert, but is actually smothering him. Seems a bit panicked in his response to a complete noob accusing him, especially given how bad the accusation was. Maybe this accusation is unfair. He does address Dittert's points, but in a very sarcastic and derisive manner. His post @BroodKing is ultra-defensive. Is very honest in his reply to the case I made against him. However, his case against broodking is weak. Defense against dittert: appeal to authority. However, the rest is solid. Explains his playstyle and it is very different to mine. Town defending town seems weird. Bad, vague case against KB. Voices suspicions of HiroPro and imallison. Rolls with the punches, seems willing to learn, assuming he's town. In general, I like his defense before he goes all emo. Even with the emo shit, he stays fairly calm. He overemphasises how he's dead. I think scum might be more aggressive in this situation, but wifom here. Disagrees strongly with yomi and needs heavy convincing to vote for him. Seems good at describing the game, but is passive in hunting scum. Finally suspects someone again: HiroPro. Thinks the case by HiroPro on Xata is "fine". Lots of wifom. Brings up yomi "knowing" willz is town. Makes an interesting post about how he is STILL convinced that Dittert is newbie town. How the heck does he know this? Wishy washy on the Hiro/Xatalos/Dittert situation. Votes HiroPro for information Couple of nothing posts. Voices possible suspicion of me, because of the failed HiroPro case. Right thing to do. Not much of a tell: mafia would also love to pile suspicion on me. Holy batcrap. Giant pre-nightkill wifom. Cannot think of a town reason to post this. It is bad analysis at a bad time. Townomometer: iiii Scumometer: viii LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 05:09 HiroPro: Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos. Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection? Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not. Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks? Soft defense of Dittert? Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument. Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy. Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town. Could still be very noob town. DEAD town. Townometer: i Scumometer: iiii yomi: Points out how bad the discussion is. Fat load of nothing. Lurking? Dropped in 8 minutes after Xata called him out. Suspicious of Xata and Brood for vague reasons. Wow, made a fubar post @April 13 2012 01:12. Thinks accusing people in every post is townie behaviour. Seems a bit panicked. Also, defense of Dittert by ArcticFox? More like an OMGUS to dodge the question. Lashing out like a madman... BroodKing is suspicious of his top 3 list where he doesn't follow the ranking. I disagree with that read, he's just listing 3 mafia members. Happen to be the most suspected player and two lurkers (arcticfox, hiropro, dittert). Easy picks. Throws some suspicion at HiroPro. Gets into an OMGUS with Dittert. Dittert and Yomi both scum seems increasingly unlikely. Yomi buddies willz. Willz looking townie at this point, so who knows. Something weird with yomi defending his defense of willz. Not a tell, just weird. Soft accusation of Dittert. Later turns into a hard accusation. Is less willing than willz to just roll over and die. Lies about being the first to suspect Brood. His post is a throwaway that could have meant anything. Seems increasingly unlikely that Yomi is on the scumteam with Dittert or HiroPro. Is reluctant to say Xata is mafia. Goes back and forth poking holes in Xatalos' logic. Not much use either way. I think Xata catches too much flak for misunderstanding Yomi. It is really easy to misunderstand. Who drives this point home? Finally. Yomi makes a post suspecting HiroPro and Dittert (been harping on them all game). His post makes some sense. I would not expect a connection case like this from a mafia member, it's too risky. Claims activity, but does nothing. Makes a value-based judgment call between Xatalos and Dittert. No scumhunting, just utility. Alarmbell? When going back to my case, seems to have completely forgotten his earlier suspicion of HiroPro. Not sure what to make of this. Hmmm... while suspicion of HiroPro is justified, possibly suspicious that he made the case. Specifically his later lack of commitment to it? Investigate further. Thinks Xata is scum. Pointless speculation about mafia influencing the lynch. Townometer: ii Scumometer: iii Xatalos: Posts a trumped up case on ArcticFox. Null read so far: I understand where he's coming from, but I disagree with his reasoning. Throws suspicion on imallison for similar trumped up reasons. Xatalos posts too much fluff. Calls out lurkers. Is very active and seems to want to move discussion forward. Holy crackerjack his response to me is bad. Blending in much? Reads on Xatalos all over the map. Gone through his filter. Getting an overall townie vibe if I consider his posts in isolation. Wordy, overeager, but townie. Filter is gigantically long. Lot of back and forth with Yomi. Null read. Too much wifom. Posts everything that comes to his mind. This seems like a townie thing to do, but is really clogging up the thread. Playstyle completely different from Got mafia. Not a big fan of meta-arguments, but only thing I have on Xatalos so far is that he is wildly different from Xata. Posts why he's town. Shouldn't be necessary, but he makes a decent amount of sense. Case on willz is so/so. At least cases are improving. Activity is also improving. Tries to engage in discussion without waffling too much at the end of N2. Townometer: iii Scumometer: ii LAST UPDATE: April 16 @ 22:50 imallison: fat load of nothing posts. Seems pretty clueless. Buddying people, mainly Xatalos. Posts a case on Trumpetarn which is not bad, but picking on an inactive noobie is pretty easy. Still buddying Xatalos. Many more nothing posts. Makes a case against Trumpetarn for nothing. Same as Hiro... makes a baddish case against Brood. Either because he's town and believes it, or because he's scum and wants to seal the deal. Makes a good list during the night. Note the town read on Arctic tho. Soft defense on HiroPro? Is very scared of a vig shot... Posts a lot more sheeping. Definitely soft defending HiroPro. Also soft defending Yomi. Good case against Xatalos, who is currently the prime for lynching. No read there. Points out an error in my thinking. Seems townie to be thinking along <--- especially given that Hiro flipped town: bandwagoning would've been easier as scum. Makes a long case comparing HiroPro and Xata. It makes sense. Votes Hiro in the end. Calls for a case from funcnode: suspicion without reasons is bad! An answer to my question relies on wifom. Later responds briefly with his current reads. I didn't call him out, so volunteered the info. Improving posting style since start of game. Scumometer: ii Townometer: iii LAST UPDATE: April 18 @ 05:50 trumpetarn/funcnode: excellent response to my light prodding. Like his explanation of the Xatalos suspicion. Clueless townie? Read his filter in isolation. Pretty damned useless. Funcnode's list is a sheep. Null read. Placing final nail in Xatalos's coffin? Identifies the negative aspects of Xatalos' posting. Post is valid. Defends his list as a non-sheep list. Makes some valid points. The list had minor novelty Seems to like the HiroPro-Dittert---IMALLISON connection that Xatalos invented (don't understand it). I like the "I need convincing"-stance from a playstyle point of view. Not sure if this is townie or not, though. Suspects imallison. Look into this more? Would like to hear a longer case than the list-post summary. Analysing emotions. "for fucks sake" seems genuine? I am not sure I like this post, but it's definitely a novel and interesting way of looking at things. The rest of the post is a long list of happenings from funcnode's perspective. I am not sure what to think of it right now: it definitely gives more to read, so that's good. Hrmmm, I don't understand the defense of Willz post. Regardless of alignment this was a bad post. Is happy on the willz defense, so if willz is scum, is a good option for scumbuddy. Null read in general, but liking wifom is very strange. Townometer: i Scumometer: i LAST UPDATE April 18 @ 06:25 | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
I have faith that this town will avenge me! | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 08:21 GMT
#1093
However, the happenings after the DT claim are really mindboggling. Sure, there are all kinds of accusations flying around, but you have a DT claim. The logic here is really clear: at this point in the game, the only people claiming DT would be, either the DT, or mafia. You decide which and lynch either his redchecked target, or him, himself. The next important thing that happens is this post by KB, in which his entire defense is an admission of guilt: He LITERALLY says that Dittert's roleclaim makes no sense as a fake claim. If it is not a fakeclaim, it is a real claim and Dittert redchecked KB. At that point you can rightfully question why the hell he would check KB, but it doesn't really matter why: he did and got a red check. A framer on KB was extremely unlikely... and looking over his filter you can see some of the scumtraits: he really did spend the entire game flying under the radar. His lists made sense, but they just sheeped town consensus. @Dittert: appearing untownie is all very well for avoiding a nightkill, but you really want to appear townie, so people believe your DT claim too. I liked the breadcrumb (and no, I didn't pick up on it, because it's really not doable to analyse everybody's posts in all the possible ways of breadcrumbing... additionally as town that is not what you should focus on ). What shat up the thread were your rants gainst town at night. Don't do that. Not as town, nor as scum. It's just a really bad thing to do. What you want to do is win the game, not call your teammates idiots. Especially after you were afk yourself for the entire ordeal. @Willz: unfortunately you really were the fourth scum Your utter lack of suspicion of KB buddying you hard was what convinced me you were scum, even though quite a lot of the observerQT thought you were town. If KB had gotten lynched, you would've looked really bad. You were in a unique position to figure this out. You knew you were town and that one of KB and Dittert was scum. You push for a Xatalos lynch (why is still beyond me) and KB is INSTANTLY buddying you hard. This was super suspicious behaviour and should really have sent you into an alarm state: if KB was really town, then he should be pushing HARD on a Dittert lynch, but instead he wants to buddy you and lynch Xatalos. Why? Especially since before the DT claim, he had been leaning more towards lynching you (in a stand-offish manner), and nothing in the outfall of the DT claim had made Xata or you more suspect than you already were (you both, unfortunately, used similarly bad logic). @scum: yeah, my D2 analysis was actually not nearly as bad as I thought after the complete mislynch on Hiro. I just latched onto the wrong person. I later thought my analysis on voteswitching between two townies was probably a false assumption, but never got to correct my analysis for it (would've put KB back on the radar). You made a good call killing me, I am quite confident I would've logicked my way into a KB vote. But who knows what kind of pressure I would've been under if I hadn't gotten killed. @Xata: you played GoT mafia with me. You went through Risen's DT claim with me. You should really have remembered how DT claims work. Also: you post too much. ArcticFox put it best here, and hilarious as it was with KB being scum and all, he actually tried to help you with this. @vonKlaust: such a shame. You were SOOOO close to figuring out why Dittert's DT claim had to be real, yet you got distracted by all the waffling If only someone had had more faith in "crazy ole dittert". For cop and counter-cop claims, take a look at the logic in the "I'm a cop, you idiot" game! The game was a good learning experience. Town is super-much-harder to play than mafia. Reading people is really hard (and you don't have to worry about that as mafia ). Also, I have now gotten shot in N1 and N2 in the two games I've played as town... and apparently the only reason I didn't get shot in N1 here is because of fear of a medic. Not sure that's a good or a bad thing. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 08:24 GMT
#1094
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Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 08:26 GMT
#1095
I understood not wanting to vote for KB yet and giving yourself time to make a proper case, but you could have tried asking for people's opinions on KB. Saying you are starting to have some doubts about his townieness, because he seemed to just sheep people's opinions. Steer the discussion towards him, rather than Xatalos/Willz. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 10:21 GMT
#1101
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Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 11:21 GMT
#1103
There was no pressure on him to claim and there was no pressure on town. If he had played his cards right he could have sat back and observed what I was saying (and gathering possible connections in my behaviour), accumulated notes and got me lynched in a regular manner. Instead he engaged in conversations with WBG and claimed DT at a time when he really shouldn't have. Dittert's claim came at lylo and he didn't know how to make a convincing case against the guy he had a red check on. He wanted people to lynch KB (which would've gotten him shot at night, but at least one more day for town). Was it a particularly convincing DT claim? No (for some reason, DT claims never seem to be). However, at least coming at lylo it made some sense for town. At the very least it reduced the chance of hitting scum to 1 out of 2, rather than 3 out of 8, which is nice at lylo. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 11:49 GMT
#1105
I looked at his claim again and it's messy and muddly. If you know that he actually is the DT it makes sense, but it seems like a decidedly weird claim. First he votes for me without saying why here (fine, imho, but he already had me labeled as scummiest player, so not sure how effective this was). Second he breadcrumbs his role here. And finally he semi-claims by stating the either/or situation before he actually says that he's DT here. He never bothers to make a believable claim with his role name or anything and it's rather messy. However, I haven't seen many DT claims yet. In DFM2 risk.nuke's came backed up by the game mechanics and BillMurray's was too dumb to be anything else | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 20 2012 15:41 GMT
#1120
Another thing is that you really need to improve your posting style. I know that that is not an easy thing to do, but maybe make it an exercise to think beforehand: what is the main message of my post? Write your post keeping that in mind. When you're done, use the preview and ask yourself: am I getting my message across? For instance, this post is a post that does not get a message across. If you still think AF is scummy, say so. If you think he's not, just say "yeah, AF's response was good. He is off the hook for now". Pointing out that your case generated discussion is not something you should do... it seems like you are excusing yourself for a bad case. No. You found something scummy in AF's playing and pointed it out. Other people disagreed with you. If you disagree with them, say so forcefully. | ||
Acrofales
Spain17179 Posts
April 21 2012 17:06 GMT
#1136
On April 21 2012 06:05 jaj22 wrote: Well, it's not just lurkers. I have doubts that anyone read imallinson's filter properly (except funcmode, maybe), otherwise they should have been making a case. Players who weren't drawing attention to themselves were getting ignored. I made a real exercise of going back and rereading everybody's filter everyday. But I am not afraid to admit that I find reading people's alignment hard. Especially not when the number of eople with scummy tendencies is as high as in this game. The only two I got a good town read on were Arctic and vK. I found KB's D1 acceptable and his D2 list dropped him off my scumdar. Imallison was always on the edge of my scumdar, as was yomi. The problem I have is to disti fuish between unintentionally bad logic and willfully bad logic. That really screwed me up on willz and funcmode, and until i figured out xata, him as well. Dittert I wrote off as newbie town halfway through D2, because his behaviour was easier to explain way. How can I improve tat? | ||
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