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On April 16 2012 15:17 Dittert wrote:Acro - Like I said before, I don't really have too much of an idea about who is the 3rd mafia. My best guess right now is Xatalos, mostly because of this lie/misdirect: Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 07:12 Xatalos wrote: I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school? He's also in here now completely shitting up the thread, drowning out what seems to be us on the right track. I'm curious to see why you're so suspicious of him as well. That being said, I could see it being one of these other people who are just not posting very much. I don't post that much, but I think by now most people can see my clear thought pattern since day one (okay, even if you don't think I'm thinking clearly, I'm at least being hyper-consistent). I read a lot of other people's filters and just kind of shrug.
I referred to ArcticFox's latest Mafia read post before his death:
On April 15 2012 07:12 ArcticFox wrote: For my vig target? There's at least 5 people who I could make a reasonable case for shooting right now, for either lurking, being highly suspected as scum, or posting just stupid shit over and over again. That's what's so terrible, especially in light of gaining no real information from the lynch -- there are SO many people with scum behavior it's actually impossible to tell. We don't have 1 or 2 good targets, we have more targets than actual mafia that exist. =/ Yes, yomi's on the list, but so are people like HiroPro and Dittert. I couldn't even really argue against a vigi hit on willz. The fact that the list is so large at all is what sucks. We need the entire town to be more active and more focused in the scumhunting. The random fingerpointing, the rage, the WIFOMing, the confusion, and the horrific logic jumps are doing nothing but making our job harder.
I also don't know what you're saying with that he never suspected you, since he dedicated a whole post for your FOS:
On April 14 2012 22:55 ArcticFox wrote:Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 21:31 Xatalos wrote:On April 14 2012 21:12 Acrofales wrote: @Xatalos: WTF. You're not proved anything at all until you're dead. Roleblocks don't stop mafia KP. You also just roleclaimed green, btw.
The rest of your post is one massive wall of wifom and completely pointless. Just. Don't. Okay? Really? I thought roleblock stops Mafia KP in this setup. Just look at this post: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=324743&user=151616¤tpage=3 (the one where KharadBanar makes his last will and roleclaims before his death) Could we please get confirmation from a host? Ah, yeah... It doesn't really make sense for a blue to ask being jailed. But you don't know if I'm actually Jailer and just making the Mafia WIFOM into not shooting me, do you? Everything is possible. Even me being Mafia and wanting to buy a bit of credibility by sacrificing my power. I haven't announced my role yet. I'm glad you started posting and I like your response to my criticism of being AFK for the lynch. At the moment you read very town for me, so I agree with vonKlaust that you should be protected. At least we should encourage the Doctor to protect you - even if he decides otherwise, Mafia can't risk to waste their KP on you while you well might be protected. But I don't agree about telling who to investigate, because it would be too easy to frame then. Vigilante: yomi (preferably also explain your choice at the deadline, look at GOT where SLJ did this as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=321496&user=239474¤tpage=3)Jailer: Xatalos Doctor: Acrofales Detective: use your own judgement Xatalos....please...for all our sakes, slow down your posting. Stop typing. No, I know you're already formulating a response to this before you're at the end of this sentence. Stop. Go back. Read your filter. Every single one of your posts has been either a parroted argument that someone else has already made, or a case full of so many logical fallacies and leaps that it's a wonder how you ever got there in the first place. Posting a list of blue actions is not even relevant. Blues should already know what they're going to do. Having different targets for Jail/Doc in a semi-open setup where you don't even know if both roles exist (and likely don't both exist unless scum got some powerful roles too) is a headscratcher too. Beyond this, you gave no real reasoning as to *why* those should be people's choices. "Oh, I post a lot and I'm obviously town, because I say I am." is your whole reasoning to be protected. Yomi as vig shot is because "he's a distraction" -- as much of a distraction as dittert? Or even willz at this point? Yomi and willz are at about the same level in my mind -- why yomi over willz other than your "I'm sure that willz is town and yomi is mafia," statement? It's as poor as the rest of your logic. I know you're trying to contribute, but your posting is all over the place. If I were on the scum team and you are actually town, you're exactly the kind of town I'd *want* to keep alive. Slow down, and think calmly before you post. Is this argument sound? Does it have a solid counterargument? etc. Yomi is actually starting to make a little more sense to me as this goes on. He's been really the only one who's been saying Dittert is actually scum -- I've hinted at it, Acro and imallinson's FoS'd him, but yomi's been all over it since early day 1. Imallinson makes a big list of things picking apart Dittert's post, but the most damning things about it just scream scum to me. First, his sudden change in tone from a meek, clueless, "is this ok?" style of posting to suddenly: Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote: Here's my read: you're all a bunch of idiots. Seriously. ... ... ... After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? ... ... ... From now on, I would appreciate it if everyone read every post and ignored all of their feelings. Feelings are for little girls. Use your brain. ... ... ... For the love of god, will the vig please shoot yomi or willz tonight so we can get some real info? Thanks.
Willz was jumped all over for rabidly defending himself when accused, and suddenly switching from seeming helpful to getting aggressive. Dittert has done the exact same thing. Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 13:23 Dittert wrote: All I hear about is how "such and such FEELS scummy/townie to me." After 3 or less games of mafia, what makes you think your intuition is worth anything? I'll bet you FEEL like you're constantly producing SCV's too, and I bet you're in the bronze league. For everyone who saw Brood's play as "so obviously mafia/scumslip," what do you think of your judgement now? As I mentioned before, I thought Brood was just kind of bad town (or as I said, "says some really stupid shit"). ... ... ... From now on, I would appreciate it if everyone read every post and ignored all of their feelings. Feelings are for little girls. Use your brain. Does post X make sense if so and so is town? What about if they're mafia? Do I see a pattern of posting between people? Remember that the mafia are coordinating with each other. Can you pick out anything that looks like coordination between 3 people? If you think so and so is mafia, with whom are they working? Can you construct a consistent and compelling story about what might be happening in the thread? Are you willing to assume that most people are just chattering townies (which is statistically true)? Day 1, we HAVE no facts to go with. We are interpreting everything that every person posts, and we have to determine which posts feel the most scummy and run with those reads. To insinuate that you, or I, or anyone else in this game is doing something different is insulting and distracting. The first actual clue we have is "BroodKingEXE is town." Now we get to go back through BroodKing's filter and see what it means. In about 9 hours, we'll have 1 or 2 more people dead, and we'll go through *those* filters, and people who have posted about them, and start to put them together. Saying "I was right about Brood, he was town, therefore I'm right and listen to me!" is awful logic. Go back and read the posts. Before Brood made what everyone can agree is the dumbest play of the game, nobody was voting for Brood. Even willz had taken his vote off of Brood and voted for yomi. We were convinced that one of those two were scum, and at worst we'd have more information today, and only something extremely large happening could take us off of that focus. Brood did exactly that, and that's the only reason he's dead. If he'd kept his mouth shut and kept his vote on willz, even *if* some people had jumped from yomi to willz at the last minute, we'd still have more information. yomi was up 5 votes to 4 and set to be lynched. The play made 0 sense. It still doesn't. That's why I got so pissed and left my computer last night. We gained almost nothing from a brood lynch except "well...Brood played badly." The sudden change in tone, the constant horrible logic, and the playing of the noob card for far too long. It's time people started watching you. ##FoS: Dittert
You're either lying or misunderstanding ArcticFox greatly...
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I'm going to be away from my computer for about 9 hours now. I can still read and post from my smartphone at times, but I can't quote or format very conveniently, so don't expect big posts during this time. Still, I'd really like some responses to my latest post: especially from the people voting for me right now.
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I have to re-mention this: Dittert bases me being Mafia only on my "lie" about ArcticFox suspecting Dittert... Yet he's lying about ArcticFox himself! ArcticFox definitely suspected Dittert: he made a lengthy FOS on him, and then mentioned him again as a good Vigi shot. Here we have a lying Dittert whom was heavily suspected by the only confirmed townie with reasonable posts (ArcticFox), and a truth-speaking Xatalos whom was not suspected at all by ArcticFox. Why lynch me over Dittert in this situation? I have to really wonder about this...
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What I get from Dittert's filter (which fits into only one page, quite an achievement...) is that his proposed Mafia team is this:
- ArcticFox (now a confirmed townie) ---> Xatalos (a confirmed townie for myself, although I can't prove it without being killed, and I'm not willing to do that just to prove Dittert's very likely maliciousness...)
- Willz (a quite likely townie in my eyes, although I dislike him wanting to lynch me only to gather information)
- yomi (suspicious & an easy target, yet most likely town if Dittert is Mafia)
Do you see a trend? It seems entirely possible to me that every one of Dittert's Mafia reads are actually town (at least everyone can agree ArcticFox is, and I can know about myself)... Especially if he himself is Mafia, in which case yomi is quite redeemed for tunneling him all game. If we assume Dittert is Mafia, I think the complete Mafia team is this:
- Dittert - HiroPro - Funcmode/imallinson
I don't know why the discussion died completely, but I'm still awaiting responses to the posts I earlier addressed to everyone voting for me right now. If you read my response to your personal accusation, then read my other posts today and still think I'm Mafia, please post why and I'll try to answer you as well as I can.
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
I was going to make a similar post to the one I made near the beginning of Night 1 however not much has changed apart from being somewhat less suspicious of Yomi because of my increased suspicion of Xatalos and the fact he seemed to be the one going after yomi the strongest. However in stead of that I'm going to analyse the latest back and forth between Dittert and Xatalos because they seem to be everyone's top scum at the moment.
First we get a nice long post from Dittert:
I couldn't understand Willz's motive for admitting to the merits of Acro's case, especially after everyone seemed to agree that my case against Willz was OMGUS and meritless. Then it struck me:
Confusion.
By admitting to the merits of Acro's case, Willz has started you down the WIFOM path. You basically can't help but think "surely a mafia wouldn't admit to the merits of someone else's case against them... but then maybe they know no one would think a mafia would do that... etc., etc." Using WIFOM reasoning is apparently kind of dumb, but instigating that kind of thinking in someone else... it's brilliant.
The problem with this reasoning is that it itself is WIFOM. Acrofales had made a good case and Willz admitting it doesn't make him scum. It doesn't make him town either.
The other thing that struck me as odd is Willz' continued defense of me, despite my constant attacks on him. He's planting evidence that we're on the same team. Here are some posts Willz will quote when I flip town:
Setting yourself on my team is ultra-risky right now if you think there's even a chance I might be mafia (and there's a strong general consesus that I just might be). Willz knows his play is safe, however, because being mafia, he knows with 100% certainty that I am town. He's hoping for a Dittert lynch (and that's looking likely at this point) so that he can ride my townie coattails to victory.
His posts Day 2 weren't exactly defending you. You martyring yourself kind of killed the discussion for a bit and Willz was trying to start it back up again. This strikes me as a very town thing to do, if you are town scum would love it if the discussion died and you got lynched as we would go into day 3 with very little info and be 5-3. This is the same thing he did when he was about to get lynched Day 1.
I also went back and read ArcticFox's filter, since the newbie guides claim that mafia's number one priority should be shooting people who are on the right track. Who was Arctic leaning towards before the Broodwagon occurred? Why it's Willz and Yomi! (Arctic's mistake was sounding sane and reasonable, unlike crazy ol' Dittert here, who had the same reads but a much worse way of conveying them.)
The problem here is that during the night it was you who ArcticFox was most suspicious of. Also most of trying to figure out why a night kill was killed ends up being very WIFOM. It's possible he was killed because he knew too much but its also possible because he had good logic in some wrong reads and that scared scum or that they just thought he was an easy target.
I still think they're the most likely mafia pair, especially after Yomi spent all of D1 claiming that Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 05:28 yomi wrote: What do you want me to say? I am 100% sure willz is town. if you vote for him i am 100% sure you are mafia.
is that not empty? wtf...
I have avoided the willz debate? I have not defended him? This is a ridiculous accusation. I'm not going to back the guy 100% but I have stated my opinion. I think he's town. I was the first to say he's town. I still say he's town. I guess these are empty one-liners to you but I don't know what to say to that. You want me to take a more hardline stance but I can't. I think the guy is safe. Especially now in these closing hours it just seems more and more town to me. I'll never go 100% and why am I the only one who has to go 100% on a guy?
But then later, Yomi denies it. Show nested quote +On April 14 2012 07:01 yomi wrote: me and willz led the charge against brood originally
now it seems the town's top suspicions are:
me willz brood
yet us three have attacked each other frequently. Claiming someone is basically "100% town" now passes for "frequent attacks"? Bollocks.
This is certainly interesting and if Willz was scum it might implicate Yomi to some degree but I don't think Willz is scum. This is followed by some pointless back and forth between Dittert and Yomi and Acrofales switching his vote to Xatalos. Then Sir Spamalot himself returns and makes 11 posts that has Dittert posting once in the middle (this is the point where I realise it wasn't so much a back and forth as Xatalos posting a ton).
I might even be somewhat inclined to vote for HiroPro instead of Dittert or yomi, but with this current situation of me/Dittert stalemate, I'm still going to keep my vote on Dittert (he has an infinitely higher chance of being Mafia than myself, after all...).
##FOS: HiroPro
So we start with some good ol' OMGUS with absolutely no reasoning to back it up. Xatalos you might be 100% sure you are town but no one else is and you can't use it as reasoning in your arguments.
Show nested quote +I really want to hear a theory and a reason that doesn't involve you claiming DT, because if you've blueslipped here, the mafia will surely kill you tonight. The last thing the town needs is a dead DT. It was just a failed theory based on yomi being Doctor and Willz town, but since I completely misunderstood yomi's post and thought Doctors could heal themselves, it looked like it made a lot of sense at first. I didn't want to reveal this theory not because I had checked yomi's alignment, but because if I was right, yomi would probably be the next night hit target (roleblock+KP). However, since this theory was a complete failure, it doesn't hurt to say it now...
Xatalos really seems to have been hiding behind being a newb recently which I find very odd given his confidence earlier in the game (he has basically done an anti-Dittert, which actually strikes me as more scummy). Then there are some more pointless posts from Xatalos. Then this.
Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions:
A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point.
It's been said multiple times why you lack focus, you have actually managed to both lack focus and tunnel on people. This is followed my yet more pointless stuff, then.
I don't really get this... Lynching me just because it would give good information, even though you don't believe I am the most likely Mafia, or possibly even Mafia at all? I'm willing to believe this isn't a serious vote, but if it is, I need to reconsider my opinion of you...
I find this exceptionally weird seeing as you suggested lynches and even vig shots for the purposes of info gathering but when it's you who gets lynched for info it suddenly doesn't make any sense.
So then we get to Dittert's post.
Show nested quote +I'm mostly interested in ArcticFox's filter, because he was A) killed by Mafia, not town B) more contributive. I can see why they would choose to kill ArcticFox: his posting style is solid, convincing and logical. His top Mafia reads are yomi, HiroPro and Dittert - although you can't deduce too much from that, as they could have killed him just to cast suspicion upon these players. Even so, I would say the chances are high at least one of these players is Mafia. ArcticFox hardly mentions me and I don't think even mentions HiroPro at all (or maybe early on). If you read his filter and deduce these mafia reads, you need to go back to... reading school?
This worries me because ArcticFox does mention him, at length. However he is right about ArcticFox not mentioning Hiro much. I was starting to become less suspicious of Dittert but this post seems off to me. It worries me that both Dittert and Xatalos seem to both omit information to try and reinforce their arguments. I don't know if it's scummy but it's definitely bad logic.
With that short intermission done we return to Xatalos.
Okay, so you're suspicious of my hypocrisy about blue talk instead of the act of blue talk itself. However, you fail to see one thing: I haven't fished for blues or speculated about people's roles (outside of yomi, which was a total failure anyway and can't be considered a serious post at this point). The one thing I have done is directing blue roles, which might not usually be the best idea, but consider a couple of points: A) this is a newbie game, you can't count on the blues to know what they're doing B) even if the blues don't obey my direction, it would be now impossible for Mafia to kill either me or Acrofales without taking a huge risk. I don't think this was a very suspicious move, especially considering a lot of others suggested to shoot yomi as well (and some also to heal Acrofales).
The problem is nobody was blue fishing. ArcticFox mentions blues twice (once complimenting Kharad on a previous game and once as part of the reason a RNG lynch was bad) and I mention it once (as an argument against a lynch all lurkers policy). In fact the only thing that could be considered blue fishing was your post saying yomi had basically RCed which "can't be considered a serious post." I think the main reason for you directing blues is so you can get yourself jailed giving you town cred when the scum kill goes through anyway.
I might have been a bit overconfident at the start because of how well my previous game went, but I still think I was somewhat reasonable in my accusations, even if I sometimes made mistakes with logical conclusions. If nothing else, my ArcticFox case generated a lot of reactions (bandwagon-jumping, refusal, ignoring) which could be analyzed later. Nothing much came out of my imallinson case, but HiroPro immediately jumped on vonKlaust, making me believe they are town&town or Mafia&town, but likely not Mafia&Mafia. My yomi case was even more succesful in pushing discussion and getting a wide scale of reactions from different people. This can all be used well if we get to see yomi's flip at some point. I don't think it's suspicious to say I'm sad about my stupidity with yomi's post, since it was totally unnecessary after all. However, looking back on it, it might not have been such a bad thing after all. Now, instead of a massive Dittert bandwagon, we have a bandwagon on both me and Dittert. This is a LOT more useful for analyzing people's behaviour later than if everyone had just voted for Dittert. In case I don't get lynched, it was actually a "good" move to make that stupid post earlier.
This is a lot of explaining why he switched from overconfident to meek so quickly and what strikes me as a desperate attempt to show how helpful he has been to the town (bearing in mind this is in the middle of a ton of spam).
This is followed by responding to Dittert's post and pointing out that ArcticFox did mention Dittert and FoSed him, however it also glosses over the fact that he was completely wrong about ArcticFox going after Hiro (who Xatalos has been going after for no reason I can see).
Then a little more follow up in some more short posts. Also while I have been typing this he has posted yet again.
What I get from Dittert's filter (which fits into only one page, quite an achievement...) is that his proposed Mafia team is this:
- ArcticFox (now a confirmed townie) ---> Xatalos (a confirmed townie for myself, although I can't prove it without being killed, and I'm not willing to do that just to prove Dittert's very likely maliciousness...)
- Willz (a quite likely townie in my eyes, although I dislike him wanting to lynch me only to gather information)
- yomi (suspicious & an easy target, yet most likely town if Dittert is Mafia)
Do you see a trend? It seems entirely possible to me that every one of Dittert's Mafia reads are actually town (at least everyone can agree ArcticFox is, and I can know about myself)... Especially if he himself is Mafia, in which case yomi is quite redeemed for tunneling him all game. If we assume Dittert is Mafia, I think the complete Mafia team is this:
- Dittert - HiroPro - Funcmode/imallinson
I don't know why the discussion died completely, but I'm still awaiting responses to the posts I earlier addressed to everyone voting for me right now. If you read my response to your personal accusation, then read my other posts today and still think I'm Mafia, please post why and I'll try to answer you as well as I can.
He disagrees with Dittert's list saying all the people on it are probably town but gives no explanation to why he thinks that besides saying Dittert being scum helps the case that they are town. Given that we don't know Dittert's alignment this doesn't help us at the moment. He asks if we see a trend and honestly I don't.
I'm not entirely sure where he is getting his mafia list from but he certainly isn't backing it up. This is also under the assumption that Dittert is scum (again we have no idea of this now) but as for the people on it Hiro is a massive OMGUS with absolutely no evidence to back it up. Funcmode I assume is on there because he is an unknown at this point and is a decent person to fill in slot three. And he has made absolutely no argument for why I am on here.
All of this makes me very, very suspicious of Xatalos. He has spread a ton of confusion by throwing random accusations around and generally spamming up the thread. He keeps trying to shove the fact he is helping down our throats but he has done more harm than good. I think he is scum who has done a very good job at distracting us from getting good scumhunting done. As for Dittert I'm definitely still suspicious of him, but am starting to think he might actually be a decent town player who was super nervous Day 1 and just in a bad mood after that.
##Unvote ##Vote: Xatalos
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Alright... Now I know how Willz must have felt earlier, and possibly even Dittert. Everyone except yomi seem to think (or pretend to think, in Mafia's case) that I am the most likely Mafia at the moment. I can say that I'm not, but that doesn't convince anyone of anything. I was going to sacrifice this day to defend myself instead of studying, which I really should be doing right now, but as it seems to be all for nothing, I'm just going to abandon trying to stay alive. Maybe it's for the best, since I can finally start studying for these entrance exams more seriously and give some new information about the player relations with my flip.
I feel quite bad that my downfall (and the downfall of town probably because of this) is because of something similarly stupid as with BroodKing. We both did a well-intentioned, yet malicious-looking action that lead to a crushing lynch. Worst of all, this lynch doesn't reveal anything of the alignments, since pretty much everyone voted for me. At least my flip will reveal something about the events of Day 1.
Draw your own conclusions from what I have done in this game and what has been done to me. I doubt town can win anymore, but there is at least a small hope for that, so I'll cheer you on from the obs chat. Now I'm going to karate for a couple of hours and then I'll drive home and study for a few hours (doing one assignment that has to be done for tomorrow). I can probably check on the thread a couple of times before deadline, but I'm not going to stop wasting my efforts on trying to achieve a better chance of victory. I won't go as far as voting for myself, though, since miracles might happen yet. It's unfortunate that this stupidity is my own fault, just as with BroodKing. Next time I play town I'm going to play much more carefully and passively, trying to avoid such mistakes.
Just as a reminder: I'm 99% certain there is a Mafia or two within the group of Dittert, yomi and HiroPro. None of them have played pro-town, all of them have lurked for extended periods, all of them were mentioned as good Vigi shots by ArcticFox. At the moment I'm leaning Dittert+HiroPro and my secondary guess is yomi. For town reads: I bet there is at most one Mafia in the group of Acrofales, KharadBanar, vonKlaust, Willz. Funcmode and imallinson read as slightly suspicious for me.
I await eagerly to see the obs and Mafia chats for this game. Good luck town - there is still some hope for victory, at least if the most useful players get Doctored while attempted to be shot or something similar!
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On April 16 2012 14:44 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 12:04 funcmode wrote: OK, a powercut just caused me to lose what was becoming a rather epic post.. it's now quite late so I'll do my best to rewrite as best I can.
The people I'm most suspicious of;
Xatalos: Very hard to get a conclusive read on this guy, as others have noted there seems to be a lot of clutter without much focus. I get the impression he's trying hard to come across as very active and pro-town, trying very hard to avoid the typical stereotypes associated with mafia when in fact the opposite could very well be the truth.
Dittert: His actions since facing the brunt of the accusations/votes suggest to me that he is in fact a townie, but suspicion is still very high regardless - though a lot of it seems to stem from his initial RNG lynch proposal, which I don't think is much to really go on. Accepting 'defeat' and self-voting in the manner in which he did leads me to believe he's actually a townie who no longer feels he has the credibility to defend himself, though I would by no means be surprised if he is scum.
imallinson: Gives me a scummy vibe. Seems to not really push any agenda's but has a sensible, logical opinion of events as they transpire. Although his post count isn't low he still comes across as quiet and wanting to avoid attention. Agrees early on with Xatalos.
Semi-suspicious;
willz: Had an integral role in the first lynching, the victim of which was quite suspicious of willz to begin with. Comes across as very defensive but not necessarily pro-town.
Yomi: Seems to be a driving force and is regularly close to the centre of events. Does a solid job of defending himself when required (often). His motives when posting though appear genuinely pro-town. He seems at odds with a lot of the other high-suspicion players which I think gives him some credit.
HiroPro: Quite quiet except in self-defence. Lots of focus on other people's discrepancies - but seems convinced Xatalos is scum, which if true could do a lot to clear his name.
Least suspicious;
vonKlaust: Genuinely pro-town. Hasn't done much if at all to make me suspicious except perhaps blend in quite well.
KharadBanar: Objective and again genuinely pro-town. Not much to really say here right now.
Acrofales: Open, transparent, fact-focused. The least suspicious.
Right now my vote is a toss-up between Xatalos and Dittert. I wouldn't feel comfortable voting on anyone else at this point. I can't shake the feeling that Dittert may still be town, so I'm reserving some judgment on him for when he next posts.
I'm going to have to end it there for now (just clocked 4AM here). I apologise to those of you who were probably expecting something far more thorough and decisive, hopefully now that I'm an active part in the discussion and not a bystander I can be more helpful and contribute more.
But for now;
##Vote: Xatalos Nice to see you posting at last. I agree with most of your reads (although not about myself of course...), but there really isn't too much content in this post, not even as much as in my latest Mafia/town read post. I want to ask a couple of questions: A) Why do you think I lack focus, when I have actually tunneled most of the game (ArcticFox, yomi) and almost completely focused on Mafia reads? B) Why is it suspicious to be "active and pro-town"? It's just WIFOM to think Mafia's strategy would be to appear as pro-town as possible, considering it's an extremely difficult lie to keep up and bound to fail at some point. Perhaps lacking focus wasn't the best way to phrase what I meant. You've probably done more tunneling in this thread than anyone else (which ties into "appearing pro-town") but the focus seems lacking when it comes to being decisive and conclusive. Additionally, your recent posts come across as quite desperate and attempting to shift the focus of attention away from yourself.
You say things like this + Show Spoiler +On April 16 2012 14:59 Xatalos wrote:Show nested quote +On April 16 2012 06:01 vonKlaust wrote: And I’m perfectly aware of this, but this does not really answer me. The problem is that he is overconfident in his reads, and suffers from severe confirmation bias.
Since Xatalos have not yet started to act on my and others advice to start to take it a bit easy on the accusations and stop to tunnel people I’m starting to lean towards scummyness. His play just doesn’t make sense to me.
Wouldn't you agree that I have been less tunneling today than before? I have focused more broadly and also considered Dittert and HiroPro as top targets for lynching. Also, aggression and tunneling isn't necessarily a Mafia trait: I see no reason to push so hard for a specific target as Mafia, since that would just make you A) suspicious if he flips town or B) the target unsuspicious if you yourself flip Mafia. Too much risk for too little reward, especially considering that aggression doesn't necessarily make a good town impression of yourself either... - and while you may have been tunneling a bit less, I think if you were truly innocent you'd have heeded the advice to chill a bit but instead go on an epic posting spree, pointing fingers every which way.
There is of course still a chance you could be town, I'm not discounting that, but I can't help but feel that chance diminishing the more you post rather than increasing. Not to mention the two people you mention in the post I quoted stand to benefit somewhat if you do indeed flip mafia.
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@ Dittert
Hi again, guess you're not willing to let yourself die just yet after all? (What was the point of the martyrdom post then when we all suck according to you and feelings shouldn't be considered in this game?) Also helpful note, you never unvoted yourself after your martyrdom post so the bot that checks votes will still count it on yourself, so you better revote me and first do a ##Unvote:. Also considering I'm not one of the two likely lynches for this day, that vote sure will come in handy in a tiebreaker situation! Well, at least you're consistent I guess, which is something I can't say for Xatalos. However will you please answer one thing? If you like to point out lies so much, can you correct your statement here: On April 12 2012 23:53 Dittert wrote:@Xatalos I think you have a decent case against ArcticFox, and I would feel comfortable voting for him Day 1 (as things stand right now). That being said, I am actually even more suspicious of willz22912. He's lurking now (or sleeping, or at work) after posting a decent number of posts in the first 2 hours of the game. In those posts, he says a couple of things that catch my attention. First, Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:05 willz22912 wrote: Lynch all liars is dumb, don't dwell on that.. How does that not scream scum? It's not just that he doesn't want a Lynch all Liars policy (which would in theory encourage, or at least allow for, lying), but he dismisses it out of hand. "Don't dwell on liars" is exactly the kind of thing scum would say. Second, we have this gem: Show nested quote +On April 12 2012 09:16 willz22912 wrote: If the rest of you are going to let that comment by Dittert slide, I'm going to be unhappy. That comment was 100% useless and even if he is town I'm willing to sacrifice him to weed out the real scum. Town willing to kill other town? Even a bad townie (or a townie with a bad idea) is still a townie. It seems to me that this is a numbers game, and you should want as many people on your team alive as possible. I think willz22912 saw my bad RNG play as an opportunity to get the town to lynch one of their own, hence all the commotion about it. That ArcticFox immediately joined willz makes me even more suspicious of him (him being AF). So basically, you were wrong (we were all wrong) for doubting ArcticFox, since he's the only pro-town player that has flipped. Arctic had many reasons to be suspicious of you as well, but you're going to ignore that because part of his filter mentions myself and Yomi, and that's what you want to use in your case, ignoring the part that incriminates you. So you claim to be consistent in your tunneling of me, fine, I'm assuming you've read my filter so you've seen that I've been consistent in defending you because I think you're town and that town should always try and defend other town. I could be wrong because I don't know for sure, but all your actions can be explained to either being a newb town or a scummy Mafia. Secondly, your basis on your original and continuing suspicion on me is a lie, I have never pushed for your mis-lynch, and for you to claim otherwise would be to put words in my mouth.
My vote on Xatalos is pretty much shooting in the dark for his motivations for pushing Yomi and switching to myself after Acro's case and then defending me. I just like Hiro's case against him and the spam he has done so far hasn't really helped much, I am also using the reasoning that Xatalos flipping would give us more information than Dittert flipping considering Xatalos has been much more spammy and all over the place. This is not good reasoning, but then again a lot of you voted Dittert for martyring himself and now that he's back, you're willing to change all the voting.
I'll be in class for most of today, back at 6pm EST to see what's happened.
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Oh right-o.
##Unvote: Dittert ##Vote: Willz22912
As for Arctic's filter (my conclusion that he was most suspicious of Willz and Yomi - and that Xatalos was trying to misdirect us by suggesting yomi, dittert, and hiropro were actually his top reads), I just went back and ctrl-f for myself, yomi, willz, and hiropro. I saw more anti-Dittert postings than I originally thought I would find, so touche. Last night, I only ctrl-f his filter for HiroPro, since I was already suspicious of yomi and already knew that I was town.
I encourage you to do the same. Search Arctic's filter for dittert, yomi, willz, and hiropro. See what you think his top reads were.
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Okay. I don't want to wait any longer. I have been waiting all day to see what happened. I have the sneaking suspicion that mafia is just perfectly happy to leave the lynch on Xatalos: the inactivity is quite telling, as I don't think the cases on Xata are good enough for a mafia to just roll over and buss their buddy. Now I am not sure here, mafia could just have gone into hiding.
However, I have not sat still. When I said I'd take a stab at connection play, I meant it. Rather than just the cases, I started with analysing voting behaviour. Now this is going to be a very long and technical post, and as with any connection play it makes some assumptions about what I think mafia would and wouldn't do. First a very quick summary of D1 votes: + Show Spoiler [voting behaviour D1] + KB bad pressures HiroPro Xatalos makes a case on ArcticFox imallison hops on ArcticFox Yomi votes Dittert without a proper case, but suspicions HiroPro makes a case against Xatalos BroodKing suspects Dittert imallison makes a throwaway vote on trumpetarm KB: another obvious pressure vote on Yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 13 6:52 ArcticFox (1): Xatalos Dittert (2): Yomi, BroodKing trumpetarm (1): imallison Yomi (1): KB Xatalos (1): HiroPro
No vote: Acro, ArcticFox, Dittert, trumpetarm, willz, vonKlaust ---- Xatalos makes a new case: vonKlaust HiroPro follows vonKlaust counters HiroPro and immediately unvotes when HiroPro defends HiroPro kisses and makes up (unvote) Dittert makes a case against Willz, Yomi and ArcticFox. Vote Yomi BroodKing unvotes Dittert based on it ArcticFox makes a case on Yomi (I cannot call it following KB) Acrofales makes a case on willz KB follows vonKlaust follows Dittert follows (granted, he had a case already and was voting yomi only because he didn't think willz woud get town support) Xatalos follows (stronger than his own cases)
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 00:40 Willz (5): Acro, KB, vonKlaust, Dittert, Xatalos Dittert (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (1): ArcticFox
No vote: trumpetarn, BroodKing, HiroPro, willz --- BroodKing follows willz (small addition to case) Willz makes a case against BroodKing Xatalos makes a case on Yomi KB votes for lurker HiroPro Willz goes emo and votes for himself Willz decides to save himself, because ArcticFox talks him into it. KB votes for yomi
VOTECOUNT @ April 14 05:35 Willz (4): Acro, vonKlaust, Dittert, BroodKing Ditter (1): yomi trumpetarm (1): imallison yomi (4): ArcticFox, willz, Xatalos, KB
No vote: trumpetarm, HiroPro --- Yomi wants to save himself: votes willz vonKlaust flipflops: votes Yomi BroodKing votes Yomi and town blows up. Yomi votes BroodKing (chance to save himself?) KB searching for consensus (understandable): votes BroodKing Xatalos hops on the bandwagon vonKlaust hops on the bandwagon imallison comes up with a plausible explanation to hop on the bandwagon ArcticFox hops on the bandwagon HiroPro hops on the bandwagon
FINAL VOTE D1 BroodKing (7): yomi, KB, Xatalos, vonKlaust, imallsion, ArcticFox, HiroPro yomi (2): willz, BroodKing willz (2): Acro, Dittert
No vote: trumpetarm
and D2 votes so far: + Show Spoiler [D2 voting behaviour] + Acro votes Dittert based on nightly reads Yomi sheeps Imallison sheeps Dittert /suicides KB bandwagons Xatalos makes a case on Yomi (again) HiroPro makes a case on Xatalos Xatalos bandwagons Dittert for really weak reasons KB bandwagons Dittert, with a good analysis post Willz votes Xatalos Yomi makes a case against Xatalos, again, but KEEPS his vote on Dittert KB sheeps Xatalos (although he's building on his earlier case)
VOTECOUNT @ April 16 05:51 Dittert (5): Acro, Yomi, imallison, Dittert, Xata Xata (3): HiroPro, willz, KB
No vote: Funcmode, vonKlaust ---
vonKlaust bandwagons Xatalos funcmode bandwagons Xatalos Dittert unsuicides and continues his case on willz Acro unvotes Dittert and bandwagons Xata imallison posts a long case and bandwagons Xata
VOTECOUNT @ April 17 00:45 Dittert (2): Yomi, imallison, Xata Xatalos (7): HiroPro, willz, KB, vonKlaust, funcmode, imallison Willz (1): Dittert
And now the assumptions:
1. I assume that mafia is particularly willing to buss their mates: if there is a plausible way out, they will take it. 2. I assume that mafia does not care who of two townies gets lynched and won't voteswitch unless a bandwagon calls for it. + Show Spoiler [speculation] +I realize the second may not be plausible to some of you, but I for one, as scum, am happy with any town lynch. If it's someone dangerous I consider it a nice bonus, but I'll take what I can get. I am extrapolating that most scum play that way.
I tried to find something interesting in the pre-Yomi/Willz votes, but there is nothing that stands out to me. However, both the Yomi/Willz-votes and the Brood bandwagon allow me to draw a few conclusions. First I would like to say that Dittert, Willz', Trumpetarn and my own absense at the final vote could be seen as suspicious. I personally believe there are valid reasons for all these absenses and don't think I can read anything into them.
+ Show Spoiler [Brood bandwagon conclusions] + imallison and HiroPro waited until the very end before switching. They also felt the need to write a lengthy justification while the vote was already sealed. I find this quite interesting behaviour. It may not be suspicious, but file this away for later.
Note that neither was PARTICIPATING in the willz/yomi-controversy.
If willz and yomi are both innocent and either imallison or hiro are scum, they could have been waiting for a bandwagon to get going and jump on. Exactly as it happened. This behaviour is still plausible, but not as likely if one of Yomi/Willz is scum. In this case I would at the very least expect some soft defense while waiting it out. We will get to filters later.
+ Show Spoiler [Willz/Yomi split conclusions] + There are four possible cases and I will go through them one by one:
Willz and Yomi both scum The D1 happenings do not make a lot of sense to me in this case. My case on Willz came fairly early and there was plenty of time to make alternative cases. I find it extremely unlikely that scum would come up with an alternative case on another scum member, so if Yomi and Willz are both scum, then Xatalos (initial refocus on Yomi) is almost certainly town. Moreover, I see no reason for scum to voteswitch between the two, so if both are town, then KB and vonKlaust. Combining the reluctance to buss a scumbuddy and the lack of motivation to switch, that leaves the people who jumped on Yomi but not Willz (maybe scramble for town credit when it was clear that the lynch was between two scum): ArcticFox is the only one to do this. That leaves imallison, HiroPro and trumpetarn who lurked as a possible third scum. If this is the case, scum played D1 terribly (or very risky): they were waiting till the last minute to bandwagon someone else. If this is the case then the first people to hop on Brood are extremely suspect. However, I find it very implausible that this scenario happened. I will disregard it in future analysis.
Willz scum and Yomi town Now Xatalos' case makes a LOT of sense. He is protecting his scumbuddy Willz from a lynch by focusing suspicion elsewhere. It is improbable that Acro would make the case on Willz (and same for Dittert). Due to assumption 1, it is unlikely that people voting for Willz are scum (with the exception of Xatalos, who could plausibly be said to vote to reduce suspicion and then invent a countercase). KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
Willz town and Yomi scum Now Xatalos' case makes no sense at all: why buss a buddy with a likely candidate primed and ready? Same for KB and vonKlaust. It also means that Yomi's scumbuddies are hiding in the people who didn't vote for Yomi: Two of: Acro, Dittert, HiroPro, imallison, trumpetarm are scum. If you want to speculate about me being scum, do so yourself. I'm not wasting time on that. It leaves two of Dittert, HiroPro, imallison and trumpetarm.
Willz and Yomi both town If both Willz and yomi are town, I see no reason for vote switches by scum as they frankly don't give a fuck. Xatalos, KB and vonKlaust are probably town.
We see that this behavioural analysis alone makes it very likely that vonKlaust and KB are probably town (and imho their filter is another indication. More so for vonKlaust than KB). We will keep the three possible cases in mind as we analyse D2 behaviour. So far the only significant thing that has happened is the Dittert/Xatalos case. So here goes:
+ Show Spoiler [D2 Dittert/Xatalos cases] + Once again, four possibilitites, but now they have repercussions by taking D1 votes into account! Lets make the lists:
Dittert and Xatalos both scum Xatalos' behaviour makes no sense. He is under suspicion and bandwagons his mafia buddy instead of just voting for Yomi based on his entire night of shitting up the thread with him. Only possible reason is if Yomi is the third scum and the scum is really confusing the shit up. This seems unlikely, because yomi's behaviour is inconsistent with being scumbuddy with Xata and Dittert. Why vote dittert in the first place? Seems extremely unlikely.
Dittert scum and Xatalos town In this case, it is unlikely that Yomi is scum: despite the night spat he is sticking with the Dittert vote and only FoS'd Xatalos. Very weak case, Yomi can still switch at any point and while the bandwagon is going the right way there is no need to switch.
If Xatalos is town, that rules out situation 2 of D1, leaving: A. Willz town and Yomi scum One of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode is the missing scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town Two of HiroPro, imallison, funcnode are scum.
Dittert town and Xatalos scum People making the case on Xatalos are unlikely to be scum. Specifically HiroPro. Why make the case that refocuses on your scumbuddy when you can ride an easy mislynch? I also find it hard to think of a reason for anybody to switch, which leaves too few scums. This situation seems unlikely to me. For the sake of completeness, it discards situations 3 and 4 of D1, leaving: Willz town and Yomi scum In this case one of: imallison and funcnode is the missing scum. Both have switched to Xatalos, though, which seems like a strange buss.
Dittert and Xatalos both town If we plug this information into the D1 results we get two possible D1 scenarios: A. Willz town and Yomi scum Two of HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
B. Willz and Yomi both town And by elimination: HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are scum.
Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that [b]HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him.
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bah, the only thing i didn't try to preview was the last bit and i screwed up the formatting on that. EBWOP: Even if we ignore all filters, we can draw some interesting conclusions. Specifically that HiroPro, imallison and funcnode are flying suspiciously under the radar. There is almost certainly a scum hiding in that group and I for one want to find him.
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Now for filters: I have also gone over the filters and there's some further connections I think are quite likely:
The Dittert Connection If Dittert is scum, then Willz and Yomi are probably not. This is particularly interesting, because it makes it very unlikely that Dittert is scum: if my vote analysis of D1 is right, then the only scenario in which Dittert can be scum is if Yomi is also scum, or Xatalos is also scum. Lets take a new look at these situations. + Show Spoiler [Dittert scum speculation] + Yomi is Dittert's first scumbuddy. In this case Dittert is doing a good case of bussing his buddy. He does this at the start of D1, before there is any reason to. The only evidence for this is that he explains that his strongest scum read is Willz and keeps his vote on him. Possible, but not particularly plausible. Xatalos is Dittert's first scumbuddy. Then my real question is: what is the third scum doing today? Why no activity in trying to get the lynch to switch? Why is Dittert the ONLY one to be voting for someone else. This seems extremely unlikely. The only two lynch suspects all day have been Dittert and Xatalos. This seems like too bad to be true scumplay.
Verdict: Dittert
Yomi Yomi has a couple of interesting spats. He goes at it with Dittert, HiroPro and Xatalos and thus it seems unlikely that he is on the scumteam with any of these (although the Xatalos one was quite harmless and could plausibly have been used to distance himself from his scumbuddy). However, Xatalos is already not on a scumteam with Yomi based on voting behaviour. Verdict If Yomi is scum, then HiroPro is town. If HiroPro is scum, then Yomi is town.
I still think it's quite possible Yomi is scum.
Imallison Imallison makes a case against trumpetarn. This could be distancing, but when asked to make a case against anybody, he picked this lurker out of the couple of options there. Imallison soft-defends Yomi and HiroPro.
Verdict: no hard conclusions here. If Imallison flips red, worth scrutinizing Yomi and HiroPro. However, I am disliking his filter more the longer this game goes on. His cases always seem to be following the general trend.
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Very informative and logical post Acrofales. I have no idea what the best way of figuring out Dittert's and Xatalos' alignment is though. Do you have any proposal in what order we should approach the lynch? Our time is really running out, two mislynches and we lose the game so we better not make any errors; we must however take some chances. What is your opinion on the relative probabilities of Xatalos and Dittert being scum?
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EBWOP: got ninja'd right in the face by your last post. Does that mean Xatalos is our "optimal" lynch play?
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United Kingdom3482 Posts
@Acrofales
While I find the analysis of voting patterns very interesting I'm not exactly sure how it helps us. To draw any conclusions from it we need to know the alignment of at least two people we don't already know. If you think there are any conclusions we can draw currently I'd love to know.
As for your concerns about me. I realise I seem fairly lurky compared to some people but I post all the relevant information and thoughts I have my flying under the radar certainly isn't deliberate. I feel if I was posting a lot more I would be repeating myself or others or just spamming the thread up. Me making a case on BroodKing was just down to a personal policy of mine to always back up my votes with an argument so others can see what I was thinking when I voted. I don't feel I sheeped Dittert at the start of day 2, I posted a long case on why he struck me as suspicious in the night and it just happened you voted for him before I did.
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And now, because this analysis is pointless without some kind of a conclusion. I am willing to bet this lynch on the analysis and the process of elimination I am going through.
The only way I can make sense of this current bandwagon on Xatalos is if he's town. I voted for him this morning in the hope of drawing out a defense. This may have been a bad plan, but I have to admit that I was stuck in my analysis and needed more info. The lack of a defense so far means that scum is either willing to let it go so late that they run a big risk in saving their scumbuddy, or Xatalos is town.
I have looked through everybody's filter to make sense of scum reads. Discarding Dittert and Xatalos and for now assuming KB and vonKlaust are town as well, that leaves:
Yomi Willz HiroPro Funcnode Imallison
Of these, I feel that Willz has actually redeemed himself quite nicely during the night and I am leaning somewhat town on him again.
Now the rest of these filters are all pretty damned terrible and distinguishing between them is fucking hard.
Funcnode was first Trumpetarn, whose filter is pretty much a blank page. Funcnode has since posted a list in which he sheeped the general opinion on pretty much everybody. He also decided Xatalos was scum, just like everybody else. This is neither scummy nor townie, but it doesn't help us at all. I am willing to give him the day off in the hope to get a clearer read. Replacing someone who afk'd out of the vote is not useful at all.
Yomi of these four, I have the most mixed feelings about Yomi. I actually think he has brought up quite a lot of townie points. However, his filter is still not completely convincing. Am also willing to let him slip, but at least I will share my reads on him so far: + Show Spoiler [ Acro's reads of Yomi] + Points out how bad the discussion is. Fat load of nothing. Lurking? Dropped in 8 minutes after Xata called him out. Suspicious of Xata and Brood for vague reasons. Wow, made a fubar post @April 13 2012 01:12. Thinks accusing people in every post is townie behaviour.
Seems a bit panicked. Also, defense of Dittert by ArcticFox? More like an OMGUS to dodge the question. Lashing out like a madman...
BroodKing is suspicious of his top 3 list where he doesn't follow the ranking. I disagree with that read, he's just listing 3 mafia members. Happen to be the most suspected player and two lurkers (arcticfox, hiropro, dittert). Easy picks.
Throws some suspicion at HiroPro.
Gets into an OMGUS with Dittert. Dittert and Yomi both scum seems increasingly unlikely.
Yomi buddies willz. Willz looking townie at this point, so who knows.
Something weird with yomi defending his defense of willz. Not a tell, just weird.
Soft accusation of Dittert. Later turns into a hard accusation.
Is less willing than willz to just roll over and die.
Lies about being the first to suspect Brood. His post is a throwaway that could have meant anything.
Seems increasingly unlikely that Yomi is on the scumteam with Dittert or HiroPro. Is reluctant to say Xata is mafia.
Goes back and forth poking holes in Xatalos' logic. Not much use either way.
I think Xata catches too much flak for misunderstanding Yomi. It is really easy to misunderstand. Who drives this point home?
Finally. Yomi makes a post suspecting HiroPro and Dittert (been harping on them all game). His post makes some sense. I would not expect a connection case like this from a mafia member, it's too risky.
Claims activity, but does nothing.
Townometer: ii Scumometer: ii
That leaves HiroPro and imallison. Both their filters throw up giant red flags. Here are briefly my reads on both: + Show Spoiler [imallison] + imallison: fat load of nothing posts. Seems pretty clueless. Buddying people, mainly Xatalos. Posts a case on Trumpetarn which is not bad, but picking on an inactive noobie is pretty easy. Still buddying Xatalos.
Many more nothing posts. Makes a case against Trumpetarn for nothing.
Same as Hiro... makes a baddish case against Brood. Either because he's town and believes it, or because he's scum and wants to seal the deal.
Makes a good list during the night. Note the town read on Arctic tho. Soft defense on HiroPro?
Is very scared of a vig shot...
Posts a lot more sheeping. Definitely soft defending HiroPro. Also soft defending Yomi.
Good case against Xatalos, who is currently the prime for lynching. No read there.
Scumometer: ii Townometer: i
+ Show Spoiler [HiroPro] + Responded to pressure vote in a lacadaisical manner (as expected). Pointed out problem with LaL. Made a good, brief post about Xatalos' useless case against ArcticFox. Also points out inconsistent behaviour. Pointed out yomi's OMGUS dodge of the question. However, his filter is pretty much void of any actual opinions. Votes all over the place and a flimsy case on Xatalos.
Soft defends trumpetarm: possible connection?
Starts to get into the spirit of the game around April 13 07:11. Is convinced that Xatalos is town and his case against vonKlaust is good. Maybe too easy, maybe not.
Holy hypocrit. vonKlaust correctly points out the hipocrisy in his argument. Throwing blame around and hoping it sticks?
Soft defense of Dittert?
Scrambles to cover his tracks on the hipocrisy argument.
Scum read on broodking... in a post comparing the three. The bandwagon was already gone by this point. CLASSIC mafia ploy.
Makes a decent case on xatalos and votes. Maybe trying to sort out dittert's mess. Does not make much sense if dittert is town.
Could still be very noob town.
Townometer: i Scumometer: iiii
I know these reads are not very useful without the actual references to the posts, but I have had it with typing. Btw, townometer points are earned by doing something townie. Scumometer by doing something scummy. Today I like a HiroPro lynch.
##vote HiroPro
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sorry. that was wrong ##unvote ##vote: HiroPro
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On April 17 2012 02:38 imallinson wrote: @Acrofales
While I find the analysis of voting patterns very interesting I'm not exactly sure how it helps us. To draw any conclusions from it we need to know the alignment of at least two people we don't already know. If you think there are any conclusions we can draw currently I'd love to know.
As for your concerns about me. I realise I seem fairly lurky compared to some people but I post all the relevant information and thoughts I have my flying under the radar certainly isn't deliberate. I feel if I was posting a lot more I would be repeating myself or others or just spamming the thread up. Me making a case on BroodKing was just down to a personal policy of mine to always back up my votes with an argument so others can see what I was thinking when I voted. I don't feel I sheeped Dittert at the start of day 2, I posted a long case on why he struck me as suspicious in the night and it just happened you voted for him before I did. Doesn't really matter what I call it. It's your vote that matters. ALL the votes on Dittert are justified by his fucknuts nightpost and his martyring himself after a few votes. Your case was the first to point it out, but it was extremely obvious. One look at that post and I was writing him off as really too angry.
Let me put it this way: if Dittert is town, then it is just an easy out. Everybody was going to connect those dots and it's free town credit to be the first. If he's scum, then brownie points for you: you were the first.
However, that doesn't mean much. ArcticFox, willz and myself made similar points, with KB and funcnode also repeating that argument on Dittert in their lists.
I think I have said it before: anybody can make a case based on a bad play. I have done it multiple times in both GoT mafia and DFM2 mafia. The trick is to find the motive behind the play. Is it a townie thinking it's scum, or is it scum trying to push a townie lynch. THAT is what my analysis is about. Trying to discern motives in the play.
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EBWOP: your policy for broodking is a good policy to have regardless of whether you're scum or town. I was analyzing your vote (which was a jump on the bandwagon of a now confirmed townie), not the post.
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SO I have finished the epic analysis that is Acrofales' posts and pretty much all of it makes sense to me, except that I find it a bit more likely that Xatalos is scum and his teammates are sacrificing him/voting for him to get cred right now. It's not the most probable thing but still, I want it to be considered.
As for your last post, I agree that HiroPro is the most likely scum read out of them, especially with how zealous he was against Xatalos who is town by the above assumption. In the unlikely case that Dittert is scum, this makes especially much sense, where HiroPro desperately wants to dodge the lynch on his buddy by making a new case on a relatively easy target.
And therefore, ##Unvote ##Vote: HiroPro
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