Newbie Mini Mafia VII

On April 05 2012 01:53 imallinson wrote:
The reason it's good to vote now is to get info. You can always change your vote later.

On April 05 2012 02:17 Nova_Terra wrote:
Sick wagon....
Lazin, i dont think that its a good idea to say that it might be up to a blue to check him if he isnt lynched. 1. Lyter hasnt posted anything that could be damaging to town at all really, and so far isnt worth the check 2. they might have somebody who is more suspicious in their mind that they want to check and 3. they would have to roleclaim early if anything came up. then they are either dead or worthless because of roleblocker. Better to wait and make subtle hints at least.

On April 05 2012 03:01 Bocki wrote:
Lazin: to be true: What case can he make at Day 1? He can roleclaim, but if he's blue then thats just as bad. He was chosen because he is the least active. That is highly probable because of AFKism, and what strong case can you make when you were afk? "I REALLY! was afk, look at my facebook timeline, I didnt post anything" ...

On April 05 2012 04:17 imallinson wrote:
But if we have a doctor or jailer then they have to waste their action on him every night. It's especially bad if the other blue is jailer because then neither blue role is used. This is of course assuming there are two blues. He could be the only one.

On April 05 2012 05:01 imallinson wrote:
Ok so now that everyone has voted and no one besides Lyter himself has defended him self I'm temporarily convinced he isn't scum. He could be and the other scum could be going for the risky bandwaggon to make him seem less suspicious but as far as I'm concerned he isn't a good lynch at the moment. Thus

##Unvote: Lyter

So onto who I think might actually be scum. My bet at the moment is LazinCajun seeing as he seems to be fairly for a blue outing himself day 1 which seems like something scum would want and I can't think of a reason town would want that.

##Vote: LazinCajun

On April 06 2012 06:08 Nova_Terra wrote:

not so much, nowhere does he say its for pressure, and is voting because he hasnt said anything, instead of voting to get him to say more
Also i dont see where he could go from here because you shouldnt flop so easily and we do have to lynch someone, as gossemerr says with "Gotta start somewhere".

On April 06 2012 06:23 era wrote:
In response to Novas case against me. So your main points is that i provide no content and that I use wifom. You act like wifom is useless when in reality it can be useful at times. I also aperantly have too much time on my hands because I read the rules, I thought everyone was supposed to read the rules? This is my first mafia game so that is the reason for most of my one liners as there was no content I had nothing to talk about. As we get more content my posts are becoming longer than one line. Sorry for being new and not knowing exactly how this game works.

On April 06 2012 07:05 era wrote:
Interesting.. how did they know that imallinson was a blue? I need to go back and look through the filters and see if he made a blueslip somewhere. Or did they just get lucky? Also he accused lazin before he died, does this mean anything?

On April 06 2012 06:59 Nova_Terra wrote:
EBWOP: Please post more Lazin, I think your posting isnt bad at all, but you are slipping by somewhat.
Bocki, you too, if you are here. you need to post more, even more than Lazin. too much slipping by going on all around.

On April 07 2012 22:38 Bocki wrote:
Lazin:
Good analysis. I like the connection stuff (although of course I dont like my upcoming in it, but at least you held by the facts).

I only have one correction:
--Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?)
Thats not completely true. I said "good as any" in combination with my mathematical approach. Seviro had the least posts (1 post I think). Gossemeer had 3 posts when I did my vote, lyter had 4. That was the reason why I said "good as any", as in "4 posts are as good as 3 posts".

I dont blame you for pointing this out, since it came up 2/3 times now. I hope its clear now why I said it.

And about the bandwagony: I proposed the mathematical approach and proposed seviro (that would have been modkilled if he didnt vote at all) or gossemeer. I wanted to hear from the rest if they want to do the mathematical approach or if someone found something. Since the first vote was lyter and he only had 1 post more than my idea, I was fine with it.

On April 07 2012 22:50 Bocki wrote:
After reading it again and going through the filters, I think Lazin is onto something with the BlueyD, era, Therapist connection.

I will go with my gut feeling:

##Vote: BlueyD

Happy Easter Saturday to all of you

On April 08 2012 01:11 era wrote:


Really, you find a connection case that's based on me and therapist posting 3 minutes apart convincing? Lazin himself says that we posted 40 minutes before the deadline which is when everyone would usually be on and voting. Why are you trying to use Lazins "convincing" case to try to get me lynched? I think you are panicking because you are scum.

On April 08 2012 02:49 Nova_Terra wrote:
Also, i want to note that it is likely that mafia flopped votes between the two bandwagons in early game to not be associated with eachother. if it was say a therapist and era connection, they both accidentally flopped with the same idea.

On April 08 2012 16:43 Gossemerr wrote:


This is all you have to say? You don't even sound upset.

Well I'm pissed. I am going to step up my play because I need to. Tomorrow is Easter so I won't be on until late. I have one request that we ALL stop using BS attacks and come up with solid cases based on facts in the posts. And hunt for scum. I mean don't tell us if you think someone is kinda sorta maybe leaning town based off nothing. Find some hard facts that someone is scum and lets use that to our advantage. We need to be clear on concise here, which I feel has gotten away from us.

On April 09 2012 07:08 Bocki wrote:
Damn! It took a while to write that post, began it before the kill.

Well.. so much for bocki/gossemerr are mafia.

So, everyone that attacked BlueyD is dead except me. He probably didnt want to make it so obvious.

My read for Scum: BlueyD and Therapist.

I dont think I will have to wait 48 hours to do my vote.

##Vote: BlueyD

If you dont come up with a brilliant read on someone else, I wont change the vote.

On April 07 2012 00:41 Bocki wrote:


A blue gets whacked and you do not want to see why? Or talk about why? And that after he attacked you and died instantly after this?

That sounds a bit weird to me. I dont know what to think of it now, really, but ... its weird...

On April 09 2012 17:33 Nova_Terra wrote:
(snip)

On to Lazin,
To me, that feels like he was making a newbie mistake. not sure whether newbie town, or newbie mafia mistake, but i think its one of those. And i think he dropped it because i came to defend you, and then he reaized that it was a newbie mistake. If someone is town, they dont want to dwell on something they screwed up on and something the *most pro town player said was incorrect, as they are trying to prove themselves innocent. if they are mafia, its the exact same thing.
I am.not sure if you read the guides or not, but in them it says that leading the town in circles is something the mafia tries to do. so far, i havent encountered a mafia who tried to lead the town in circles. when i was mafia, the main thing was just defending myself, if the town started making conclusions i was fine with that as long as my name wasnt there. I think thats how it goes in a newbie game. avoid the curtain, and you succeed. To hell with making decision making harder, etc. anyways, my point is that while those couple points definitely dont make bocki seem more town, i dont think it necessarily makes him more scummy too. the other stuff, he certainly better answer to.

On April 10 2012 03:58 Therapist. wrote:
Instantly jumping on a bandwagon because someone made a case you think to be convincing is misinformed. Instead, let me recommend that we meet a case that someone proposes and try to either make it stronger or debunk it. None of this "Glad we agree, vote this person!" stuff.

Now let's think about this for just a moment. It's LYLO for the town. All the votes go on me. Everyone agrees without a second thought. Whoever is in the mafia feels no need to defend me, because if the lynch on me goes through, the game is over and mafia wins.

From my point of view, 2 of these 3 are definitely mafia. 100% no doubt in my mind it is 2 out these three: Bocki, LazinCajun, and NovaTerra. Operating from this perspective, we see that Bocki doesn't take much to be convinced to change his vote. He votes for BlueyD from the start, which is one of my strongest town reads. Then, with no additional information offerred or even thinking of a possibility that I'm not scum, Bocki changes his vote to me as soon as someone makes a case against me. I believe this to be in expectation of the bandwagon that followed against me, planning to keep the momentum in his favor against me. Bocki is my strongest scum read for this game.

Lazin seems the most intent on actually rooting out the mafia, and his focus on Bocki rather than on BlueyD or myself is a lot of proof of this from my standpoint of confidence in BlueyD and confidence in myself. I like that Lazin's eye is on Bocki through all of this and he agrees that voting on someone like me to root out a response is the right way to do it. I believe him to be the most willing to change his vote and be convinced that someone is mafia. Out of my 3 mafia reads, Lazin is the most likely to be town.

That brings us to NovaTerra. He posts a huge amount of fluff in the thread. He mostly spends his time calling out other peoples' arguments without offering any counter argument of his own. He just lets people know what's wrong with their argument. The two times he has posted a long analysis on somebody, they have both been town. Earlier in the thread, he made a long post against era, going post by post and trying to make each of his posts sound as mafia as possible. Now, he's come back with a long post against me saying that I am scum. I know myself to be town, so this second long post against a town member leads me to believe he already knows I'm town. Him immediately getting a bandwagon going instead of looking for some discussion also shows this to me. I believe NovaTerra to be the second scum over Lazin at this point.

Anyway, as to NovaTerra's argument... he starts off focused on the inactivity. He doesn't even entertain the possibility that there is a reason for laying low besides being mafia. He jumps right on the inactivity as a certain mafia read and in fact dedicates half his long post to talking about my inactivity. You could've justified voting me based on inactivity earlier in the game as you could say that I "wasn't adding much to the game." But at this point, it's easy to call out a lurker as mafia and get them lynched based on the limited information that has been brought out on your target.

He calls me out a lot in this post as well for supposed contradictions. I change my mind about BlueyD and all of a sudden that's a major contradiction and I'm scum? No, I changed my mind about BlueyD and choose to focus my investigation elsewhere. Changing one's mind doesn't make one scum, it makes one intelligent. You have to look at the game as it develops and see what's really going on. And try to look past peoples' posts and speculate reasons for them playing as they do. You all scream MAFIA, but that's not the only reason someone would want to sit back.

On April 10 2012 08:29 BlueyD wrote:

Therapist’s behavior = Day 2: Puts his vote on me, seems very willing to let me die. Day 3: Defends me hard.

Blue Therapist option: He DT checked me night 2 and is telling the truth. That is plausible: I was (and still am) suspected scum, so I would be a good pick for that check. Of course if he’s blue, then the red BlueyD option is entirely unthinkable.

Red Therapist, Green BlueyD option: If I’m green and he’s red, the day 3 behavior makes little sense. He would be putting himself at risk by defending me hard, a very strange thing to do if lynching me wins him the game.

Both Red option: Here, it’s his day 2 behavior that makes no sense. There would have been no reason to actively bus me at that point, and it would’ve been an incredibly risky move to plan to switch his D2 vote away from me if I needed some saving at the end. Only reason I still live, remember, is that Gossemerr (of all people) switched his vote.

Bocki’s analysis is suspicious, again. A good part of his post reads like a conspiracy theory, so I’ll concentrate on the rest of his attack, which is essentially one paragraph:



1. Contradictory. Bocki says now is effectively the best time for a blue to claim… But one did claim, and Bocki just dismisses it as “too convenient to be true”! Bocki doesn’t even seriously consider that Therapist may be blue. Why?
2. Why is this dismissed as “too convenient” too? If Bocki agrees that I looked scummy – and he really can’t disagree with that – then he also has to agree that I was a good DT check, no?
3. The whole point of being a cop is scumhunting, so cops check those who are most suspicious for them – often the same people they voted for, if they haven’t been lynched. He’s speculating again where there’s a much simpler explanation.

To Nova and Lazin: I thought you two were townies, but if you’re ready to consider the possibility that Therapist is being truthful, you’ll have to also accept the idea that you two might not be on the same side after all.


tldr: I have no way to be 100% sure that Therapist is telling the truth, but I’m leaning towards him being blue because it makes the most sense. Meanwhile, Bocki just dismisses that possibility with no analysis, sticking hard to his ‘convictions’. Which one looks the scummiest? Well…

##Unvote: Therapist
##Vote: Bocki

There’s my answer.

On April 07 2012 14:21 LazinCajun wrote:
Everybody is making arguments based on posts, so after doing that I thought I'd take a closer look at voting patterns to see if we're missing anything there. Plus, I tend to be better at logic than reading people, so it made the most sense to analyze votes to me.

At first I was a little weary of posting this, since it may tip the mafia off about avoiding suspicious voting patterns. I realized that in order to avoid those suspicious voting patterns, the mafia may end up not ganging up on an innocent in the future, strengthening the town's position anyway, so here goes!

Here is my summary of Day 1 voting:
--Gossemer votes Lyter: This looks like a pressure vote to get things started. When lyter turns up green, it *may* throw some suspicion on Gossemer, but I didn't think it particularly did.
--Nova votes Lyter based on Lyter's lack of posting. No surprise.
--Imallinson votes Lyter "seeing as there isn't a better option at the moment" (bandwagony?)
--Bocki votes Lyter "Good as any" (bandwagony?)
--BlueyD votes Lyter, but encourages him to defend himself
--era votes Lyter (repeats nova's reasoning, bandwagony)
--Therapist votes Lyter
--I hop on the bandwagon for Lyter reluctantly since he still hadn't posted a defense.
--Lyter posts, votes Gossemerr
--imallinson unvotes lyter, votes me, presumably because i want to "out a blue" (and he turns up blue ) Looking back on it, this could have come of to the mafia as paranoia about somebody outing a blue, and may be why he got killed night 1.
--Within 3 minutes of each other, era and therapist unvote lyter and vote gossemerr.
--A couple minutes later (very close to the deadline now) BlueyD votes Lyter.

Just looking at the order, I found it interesting that era and therapist voted lyter back to back, then switched to gossemerr so quickly. It's likely a coincidence, but an interesting anomaly considering their switch to gossemerr occured within 3 minutes of each other, which could suggest they agreed to something in a PM then voted. This argument is weakened by the fact that they voted close to the deadline (~40 minutes before) when likely lots of people were considering changing their vote and reading the thread.

Final Day 1 votes:
Gossemerr: era / therapist / lyter(Town) / blueyD
Lyter: Gossemer / Nova / Bocki / me
LazinCajun: imallinson(Town)

If you operate under the assumption that day 1 the mafia will vote together (not necessarily a good assumption! If both gossemer and lyter are truly town, the mafia knew this and would've won no matter who gets lynched, and it may have been beneficial for them to split their votes to defuse suspicion).

Looking at the voters who ended up on Lyter:
I know that I'm town, and I strongly suspect that Nova is town. Various people have aired their suspicions of both Gossemer and Bocki which I won't repeat here, and this would seem to connect them.

Looking at the voters who ended up voting Gossemerr:
I argued above that era and therapist seem to be linked as well in swapping to Gossemerr with their strange post timings, but TBH I'm not sure that the mafia would have a strong motivation to switch off of Lyter.

In Summary: Based on voting patterns, I believe that either Gossemer and Bocki may be linked as scum, or that a two out of era / therapist / blueyD are linked as scum. Based on the strange post timings, I think it's more likely that era and therapist would be connected than BlueyD.

The next thing I plan on doing is going through people's posted suspicions carefully -- at first looking only at who they accuse, not with my own interpretations / suspicions -- and seeing if I can use it to augment this argument.

On April 11 2012 06:41 Nova_Terra wrote:
Duuuude Like looking from a overall perspective, if lazin and i were a scumteam, that would be really damn cool hahah
but i can assure you it is not the case.

On April 11 2012 06:57 Bocki wrote:
we will see in 3 minutes. Then the two surviving players (after blueyd kills someone at night) will just have to vote for him and its done. town wins, gg

On April 11 2012 07:00 Nova_Terra wrote:
i thought you werent posting more

On April 11 2012 07:04 marvellosity wrote:


Well, you were the only townie voting for the townie

On April 11 2012 07:11 marvellosity wrote:


Why not? therapist was playing like a blue. To a townie you can't tell if he's lurking as scum or as blue, but Nova knew he wasn't scum. Ez pz

On April 11 2012 07:13 Nova_Terra wrote:

you mean imallinson?

On April 11 2012 07:16 Nova_Terra wrote:
Which early blue read on therapist are you referencing then o.O
also i think Lazin was right actually.

On April 11 2012 07:24 Nova_Terra wrote:
Bwahah, say that your computer has really slow internet an you submitted it before deadline

Lazn, i would love to play with you again :D

On April 11 2012 08:09 Acrofales wrote:
Lurker post

I read the last day or so of this... and there was no doubt in my mind that Therapist was town. His roleclaim was badly done, but his posting was extremely townie. Bocki's case was hanging together by threads, which you really should have pricked through, but Nova_Terra's posts were good (up until the last hour or so, when I had him pegged as the second scum: lazincajun seemed genuinely desperate, whereas Nova's posts were mainly trying to distract town from doing any actual scumhunting).

For a future game, Therapist: leave subtle clues about who you're checking at night by breadcrumbing your role and your actions (and findings). That allows you to refer to the earlier posts as extra evidence. It also means that if you get killed, a clever townie might discover your breadcrumbs and piece together your findings. Be careful with this kind of thing, because if you do it too obviously, mafia might find the breadcrumbs too soon and get an easy blue kill.

I didn't like lazin's insistance that he wasn't sure of his lynch, but wanted bluey and/or therapist to make a case on Nova or him. If you're not sure, why not pull up everybody's filter and try to figure it out yourself? It's lylo, why not make sure for yourself rather than waiting for other people's analysis?

PS. I am also new to this game, but advice is free right? Feel free to take what you want

EDIT: ninja'd by an actual veteran

On April 11 2012 23:49 Bocki wrote:
My last postings before the last hour were all directed at lazin (see communication theory sender-reciever) although I talked to or about others. It was all to convince lazin to stay with nova and me. When D3 began, I voted for blueyd and he instantly followed, I knew that we'd won. The rest was just trench-fights. He had made his mind up (although he said otherwise, I think he was fairly sure that therapist and blueyd were scum) and so I knew we won.