EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VII - Page 17
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
Also seeing as its LYLO, i will now note that Lazin is my best [blue]blue read. after day 1 he was my best, but didnt note that until now of course so that he wasnt hit. And i hope that everyone finds him leaning inno. if not, i may be suspicious of said people. actually im suspicious of all of them anyways, so its all moot i guess. just wanted to note that.[/b] | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
I do claim to be town, but I'm will NOT confirm or deny if I'm blue/green just yet for the following reasons: 1) Assume that I'm blue, but have no useful information. Assume that I claim blue. Assume that we lynch mafia tonight. In that case, mafia gets a blue for free tonight. Bad to claim. 2) Assume that I'm blue, but that I do have useful information. I can avoid claiming right now to see where votes fall, and may be able to avoid claiming, thus denying mafia a blue kill tonight. Bad to claim until I see where things fall. 3) Assume that I am blue, but choose not to claim. A mafia member claims blue today in an effort to mislead the town. I have an obvious counterclaim, and we get a mafia. Bad to claim this early. 4) Assume that I am green, and choose to claim that I'm green. Assume that another townie is blue. The mafia has one fewer person to worry about as being blue, and is more likely to assassinate a blue tonight by not assassinating me. Bad to claim this early. I don't see any real advantages to the town in announcing whether I am blue or green at this moment. [b]If[/b] you or anybody can come up with a good argument for me announcing, I will consider, but for now I choose not to claim either way. I have one more thing to say to the remaining townies before we start analyzing more heavily, and that is a reminder of what we're looking for. I think that Nova and I have pretty much confirmed each other as town in our own minds. If that is accepted, then that leaves 1 townie and 2 mafia out of BlueyD, Therapist, and Bocki. Most of the players in suspicion right now will be mafia -- keep that in mind while analyzing. Confirming a third townie right now would mean a sure-fire town victory as well, so if the remaining townie can come up with an irrefutable argument pointing to their innocence, now is the time to post it. | ||
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Artanis[Xp]
Netherlands12968 Posts
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Therapist.
United States207 Posts
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
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Gossemerr
United States195 Posts
 GG. | ||
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
On April 09 2012 07:00 Bocki wrote: Lazin: I myself know that I'm not town and I share your view of Lazin and Nova. But lining up gossemeer with me is strange, since he would have been the one that would have been lynched if we would have gone through with my mathematical solution. It was his luck that he started the bandwagon, because I think that if anyone would have started a bandwagon and said "yeah, lets do it, i vote gosse" (which was a really high probability), I would have killed my supposed mafia compadre on day1. That wouldnt make sense. My read stays on BlueyD. He's only been half-heartedly defending himself against me. He is attacking gosse the whole time, attacked iamallinson for not speaking up in the first lynch vote (which would have sent gosse to the guilotine) and so on. I know, I might be focused on him, but he still is my best read. First sentence. "I myself know that I'm not town and (...)" This is the scum slip to end all scum slips. Well I didn't expect to find that. I need to read more and write less! XD The case I had on him is below if you still want to look. ---------- Original post: Whew, had a long day, and I come back home to see myself as the #1 lynch target, unsurprisingly. My reads (not entirely thought out, as I haven’t had time to look at all the filters): Nova is most likely town, Lazin feels like town, Therapist doesn’t feel like much now because I haven’t analyzed him in depth, and Bocki is almost 100% scum. So I’ll just reply post about Bocki for now, and do the rest tomorrow. ---------- I’ve already put an analysis out on Bocki, and much of it still stands. The biggest problem: The only time he gave in-depth analysis he did so reluctantly, after someone (me) pressured him. Only 2 lines that could be considered analysis on me from him today are analyzed below, and the rest of his attack rests of his attack is the stuff I’ve already replied to. Bocki said: He's only been half-heartedly defending himself against me. He is attacking gosse the whole time, attacked iamallinson for not speaking up in the first lynch vote (which would have sent gosse to the guilotine) and so on. 1. I think my defense is more than half-assed, might be just me. What does Bocki want, even longer posts? I’m already taxing your attention enough, I think. Heh. 2. Unlike Bocki, I’ve aimed at more than one person. I’ve attacked Gosse a lot, but I’ve not spent “the whole time” on him. Bocki knows this, as he points out a jab I took at another player in the very next sentence, so this attack is unwarranted at best and a lie at worst. 3. iamallinson could just as well have put his vote against era, not sending gosse to the guillotine, so that’s another lie by Bocki unless he just failed to consider this possibility. I was only unhappy with his decision to ‘stay neutral’ even though he was the scale-tipping vote. That was not a scummy move by me, despite what Bocki tells you. Bocki said: So, everyone that attacked BlueyD is dead except me. He probably didnt want to make it so obvious. 1. That statement isn’t really true. Therapist voted for me yesterday, and he’s still alive. You’ve got a fun “except me” there, it seems I’ll have to remind you that yes, you count too… 2. Here’s my problem with this logic: Let’s assume I’m mafia and I want to hit someone without getting suspicious, yet I also take out a vote against me… then Why is Bocki alive? Gossemerr acknowledged, yesterday, that my defense was “pretty good” and that he wasn’t quite ready to vote for me “until I [Goss] can prove with more persuasion that he [Bluey] is scum.” I had heavy pressure on me from Goss, but not a guaranteed vote, and him being hit guarantees a bunch of fingers pointed at me due to our drawn-out argument while also taking out a vote that, while it was coming at me, was not unflexible. So why not Bocki instead? My arguments with him were much shorter and less memorable, hence I was going to catch a lot less immediate flak if he was hit than if Goss was. And yet, Bocki was tunneling me a lot more. His vote was actually on me D2, and I’m the only one he analyzed in depth. It was 100% obvious that this guy’s vote would fall on me today, and despite what he says I don’t get the impression anything I could possibly say can change his mind. And notice how Bocki doesn’t even wonder why Goss was hit over himself, just dismissing that possibility with an “except myself”… Maybe he already knows he can’t get hit? ---------- Here’s what you have to pick from. Either: 1. Chaotic dice-roll: I’m not relevant to the hit at all, and Goss was chosen without consideration for the Goss-Bluey link – but I don’t think this is realistic. This hit is 99% sure to be related to me, either because I’m scum or because I’m the easiest target to frame. 2. Sudden IQ gain: I’m scum, I and hit for the reason Bocki mentions, but chose Goss over Bocki anyway because I’m an idiot. Then I drank some Red Bull or something, and now I’m coming up with clever and true-sounding analysis (if you disagree, do explain) on the spot to save my neck. 3. Bluey-is-a-genius: WIFOM version of #2 where instead of being an idiot, I’m so smart I anticipated I could use this defense. Thus, I hit Goss to frame Bocki. In theory this is possible, but it’s also a bit far-fetched. If you pick this, town loses, but I admit l might feel a bit flattered that you think so highly of me. 4. Bocki-can’t-hit-himself option: According to this option, Bocki is scum and he wanted to get an easier townie to lynch on D3, hence why he tried to link this hit with the most scum-looking target at the moment, which is me. If I’d been scum at that moment and I had wanted to hit someone who would certainly vote for me D3 while not attracting too much attention, the best hit would have been Bocki. Scu, failed to consider this because, from their point of view, Bocki wasn’t a possible hit target to begin with, and so the honor fell to Goss. ##Vote: Bocki | ||
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
Otherwise: The guy I was suspecting since D2 and that I voted for twice is voting me? What a surprise. I will get to the rest when I get home. | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
On April 07 2012 00:41 Bocki wrote: A blue gets whacked and you do not want to see why? Or talk about why? And that after he attacked you and died instantly after this? That sounds a bit weird to me. I dont know what to think of it now, really, but ... its weird... I couldn't sleep so I started going through filters again. Looking back, this post from Bocki bothers me a little bit when viewed in the context of his later behavior. I feel like I was and am in good standing with the town. As I explained, my post was trying to drive us away from wasting time arguing in circles over something that wouldn't provide much info, but I can see how it could be interpreted badly enough for somebody to make a post about it. The queston that's bugging me is this: If Bocki interpreted this negatively, why did he make such a weak and indirect case against me (it sounds weird, I don't know what to think, it's just weird!), then totally drop it later? On one hand, perhaps he is town and had a strong pro-town read on me, so he wasn't confident enough in his own opinion to try to start a lynch against me. However, if Bocki had such a pro-town read on me, why wouldn't he buy that I just wanted to avoid useless discussion in the first place? That doesn't seem consistent to me. So if he didn't believe me, wouldn't my post raise a big red flag? On the other hand, if he was mafia and wanted to raise suspicions without drawing too much attention to himself, wouldn't he make just this kind of post? From a mafia perspective, his post could also encourage the town to spend far too long on wondering about the mafia's motive for one lynch, wasting time and effort better spent elsewhere. We heard nothing else on the issue after Nova, probably the consensus most pro-town player, came to my defense, and nobody else mentioned the post. I don't think that dropping the case so quickly would make much sense if Bocki is innocent. If somebody were town and in Bocki's position, I think he would become more suspicious of nova and aggressively make a case against me in order to try to draw out more information and/or secure a lynch. If, however, our hypothetical player was mafia in Bocki's position and trying to encourage a mislynch, it would seem suicidal to push the case further! Without support from the town, the backlash would likely get him lynched, or at least raise more suspicion than he would want. As strange as it sounds, I think that him not attacking me is pretty inconsistent behavior and gives me scum vibes. | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
That is the funniest scum slip i've ever heard of, ever. simply for that reason, i think its accidental. i write things like that all the time, and find it in the last second before i post and lol. And its NOT because i am scum, because im not, its because im not taking enough care However, BlueyD does have good points in there otherthan on the scum slip. The main thing to me is just that he really hasnt done anything for himself. On to Lazin, To me, that feels like he was making a newbie mistake. not sure whether newbie town, or newbie mafia mistake, but i think its one of those. And i think he dropped it because i came to defend you, and then he reaized that it was a newbie mistake. If someone is town, they dont want to dwell on something they screwed up on and something the *most pro town player said was incorrect, as they are trying to prove themselves innocent. if they are mafia, its the exact same thing. I am.not sure if you read the guides or not, but in them it says that leading the town in circles is something the mafia tries to do. so far, i havent encountered a mafia who tried to lead the town in circles. when i was mafia, the main thing was just defending myself, if the town started making conclusions i was fine with that as long as my name wasnt there. I think thats how it goes in a newbie game. avoid the curtain, and you succeed. To hell with making decision making harder, etc. anyways, my point is that while those couple points definitely dont make bocki seem more town, i dont think it necessarily makes him more scummy too. the other stuff, he certainly better answer to. | ||
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Nova_Terra
Switzerland1190 Posts
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BlueyD
Canada437 Posts
I would think if the phone is causing screwups, you would read the sentence again once it's written to make sure it says what you want to say and there's not a german word somewhere. Either Bocki didn't for some reason, or he did and his mind skipped over the first sentence, seeing nothing wrong with it at first glance. That is indeed a very funny scumslip, but it's still a scumslip. Consider it in the wider context of Bocki's generally sheepish behavior... That is MORE than enough for a lynch. If this slip somehow counts less than my jokes in your mind, then maybe it's time to reevaluate more objectively. | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
On April 09 2012 17:33 Nova_Terra wrote: (snip) On to Lazin, To me, that feels like he was making a newbie mistake. not sure whether newbie town, or newbie mafia mistake, but i think its one of those. And i think he dropped it because i came to defend you, and then he reaized that it was a newbie mistake. If someone is town, they dont want to dwell on something they screwed up on and something the *most pro town player said was incorrect, as they are trying to prove themselves innocent. if they are mafia, its the exact same thing. I am.not sure if you read the guides or not, but in them it says that leading the town in circles is something the mafia tries to do. so far, i havent encountered a mafia who tried to lead the town in circles. when i was mafia, the main thing was just defending myself, if the town started making conclusions i was fine with that as long as my name wasnt there. I think thats how it goes in a newbie game. avoid the curtain, and you succeed. To hell with making decision making harder, etc. anyways, my point is that while those couple points definitely dont make bocki seem more town, i dont think it necessarily makes him more scummy too. the other stuff, he certainly better answer to. Nova, I think it was a mistake speaking for Bocki before he responds. My case alone isn't enough to label him as mafia, but I do NOT understand his thought process. I wanted to read his own original response to try to get a better read on him. Your defense here might give him something to hide behind. Bocki I still want to hear your own reasoning on the matter. I think it's fair to interpret silence as a huge scum tell. On to therapist: I will reread his filter. I have a pretty simple argument against him right now that is pretty damning I think. I'd like to wait to state that argument until I think more on the filters. Stating it right now could give the mafia the opportunity to act in a specific way that would muddle the whole situation. Sorry if this is vague, but I really can't say more without showing my hand. | ||
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LazinCajun
United States294 Posts
Therapist what are your reads on the game right now? You have been lurking for far, far too long without posting anything of value. Follow up on your suspicions from your previous post if you still hold them. If not, then post why you changed your mind. We need to hear from everybody ASAP. Next, another small argument against Bocki -- being very stubborn about BlueyD is sort of scummy. The 3 remaining town members should be focused right now on getting a unified vote against a mafia member. If nova and I disagree with you and you don't change your vote, then that would potentially cost the town the game. From the mafia perspective, IMO tunneling the townie that is under the most suspicion is the "obvious" strategy right now. Nova and I have each posted that we think the other is town, so voting so early for BlueyD and saying you won't change your vote for whatever reason seems somewhat questionable. | ||
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
sorry for the long wait, but I was on a family meeting the whole day and just came back. The "Scumslip": I explained what happened this morning and I think it is comprehensible when you look at the postings in the night. As for most of us, this is my first game and it is to learn how to play it. I learned from this that I shouldnt post in the circumstances of tonight. On April 09 2012 16:13 LazinCajun wrote: If Bocki interpreted this negatively, why did he make such a weak and indirect case against me (it sounds weird, I don't know what to think, it's just weird!), then totally drop it later? ....... As strange as it sounds, I think that him not attacking me is pretty inconsistent behavior and gives me scum vibes. As I said in the post, I did not interpret this negatively, I just wanted to note that I found that sentence strange of you. At that point, I didnt have a read on you, not town, not scum. I wanted to get one of the better analytics (therapist, nova, era) to take a look at your filter to see if they find something that supports that "weird feeling". It didnt lead to anything, and right after my post, you did a very good analysis ( this one http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=325394¤tpage=12#234 ). That convinced me that my hunch was baseless and that you are a pretty good pro-town player. I didnt post this specifically, since no one noticed or supported the "hunch"-post in the first place, so I didnt think about it. On April 09 2012 14:28 BlueyD wrote: 2. Unlike Bocki, I’ve aimed at more than one person. I’ve attacked Gosse a lot, but I’ve not spent “the whole time” on him. Bocki knows this, as he points out a jab I took at another player in the very next sentence, so this attack is unwarranted at best and a lie at worst. Attacking gosse over more posts and noting iamallinson in 4 lines isnt the same thing. On April 09 2012 14:28 BlueyD wrote: 2. Here’s my problem with this logic: Let’s assume I’m mafia and I want to hit someone without getting suspicious, yet I also take out a vote against me… then Why is Bocki alive? Gossemerr acknowledged, yesterday, that my defense was “pretty good” and that he wasn’t quite ready to vote for me “until I [Goss] can prove with more persuasion that he [Bluey] is scum.” I had heavy pressure on me from Goss, but not a guaranteed vote, and him being hit guarantees a bunch of fingers pointed at me due to our drawn-out argument while also taking out a vote that, while it was coming at me, was not unflexible. I could ask you the same question: Since you are my most vivid attacker, why are you still alive if I was scum? I would have had 2 Nights to get you, but yet: you are still alive. If I take your premise, you are the only one that I attacked all the time. You attacked more persons (from your point of view) including the late iamallinson and the late gossemeer. The only person I really attacked is still alive. If this is a scum tactic, thats a really crappy tactic. On April 09 2012 14:28 BlueyD wrote: And notice how Bocki doesn’t even wonder why Goss was hit over himself, just dismissing that possibility with an “except myself”… Maybe he already knows he can’t get hit? I did wonder, and I did explain why I think he died instead of me. On April 09 2012 07:08 Bocki wrote: ....He probably didnt want to make it so obvious.... On April 09 2012 14:28 BlueyD wrote: ...hence why he tried to link this hit with the most scum-looking target at the moment, which is me. If I’d been scum at that moment and I had wanted to hit someone who would certainly vote for me D3 while not attracting too much attention, the best hit would have been Bocki. Scu, failed to consider this because, from their point of view, Bocki wasn’t a possible hit target to begin with, and so the honor fell to Goss. I cant really follow the reasoning in this. Now you say that I would have been the better target because you look more scummy, but the mafia failed to see it. But it stands 2-3, so I wouldnt assume that mafia is stupid. Nova: He's my best town read after lazin, since he has been posting a lot of good information. He is (in my opinion) the best analyist, shortly followed by lazin. This may be scummy behaviour (beeing so obviously town that he isnt) but my gut feeling tells me he is town. He has been after therapist in the last postings, who is my second mafia read, maybe that also helps my gut feeling. I sense that it comes down to me or blueyd this day. I vote for Blueyd BlueyD votes for me Lazin firstly voted for BlueyD but keeps his option open to change Nova will probably vote for therapist it comes down to what therapist votes. Since therapist is my second mafia read, this is really bad. Lets see how he decides. If you find typos, you can keep them, this was the work of 12 simultanious open tabs | ||
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Bocki
Germany98 Posts
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