EPTNewbie Mini Mafia VI - Page 3
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
If you read his filter, you'll see:
strongandbig, I'll answer your question in due time (You'll see why, bear with me). Solohan50, I think you had enough chances to explain yourself and I'm now pretty set in my opinion. I am however listening to everything you say, if only to get more scum tells. But if you manage to get REALLY convincing (i.e. it's nigh on impossible) perhaps you can sway my vote tomorrow. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 05 2012 10:25 strongandbig wrote: If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though. Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts: From Marvellosity: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter. You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move. The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him. ##Vote: Kohbee From solohan50: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following: - He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim). - One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched. - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia. Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't. However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often). I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50. Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide. Also, the two persons you mentioned were the people Kohbee kept on his personal scum list, if you remember that. Your gut feeling works quite like that of our detective, which I like. I definitely second your thoughts on who's mafia at this point. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
To preface the following epic wall of text, let me explain why I'm doing this. I believe scum wants to kill me tonight because I'm so high on everyone's list of town reads, so I'll get out every bit of information I can before the day post, because I have secret thoughts that I left unbeknownst to town for my own good. HOWEVER, if they're not killing me right now they will be after reading this so I'm saving myself by posting this when they probably have no time left to respond (if I would leave them time to respond I could as well have committed ##Suicide). I will be using the maximum amount of formatting available to me to get my point across in this post, because I have no reason to assume I'm going to live to explain myself any further. Also, if I live through this against all expectations, I think this post should confirm myself town because constructing a cover story that epic is an effort scum wouldn't be making at this point. I will also be using parentheses in the mathematical sense to group my logical statements together sometimes. + Show Spoiler [For strongandbig] + On April 05 2012 09:21 strongandbig wrote: This is the point where I'm explaining my town read on Kohbee that I promised earlier. It should also be immediately apparent why I was holding this back.I insist that Kohbee's play made no sense to me. However, it obviously made sense to other people, so maybe I'm wrong. Could be either way, and since he's not here to defend himself I'm gonna stop dissing on him. So without further ado, my claim: + Show Spoiler + I am the Jailkeeper. Things I did Night 1: I jail Kohbee. If Kohbee's claim is real: I protect him from any night kill scum might throw at him; the roleblock is unimportant because if scum don't kill him that night they roleblock him anyway. I knew of the very real possibility of scum targeting someone else, but at the time I deemed Kohbee the most probable target. If Kohbee's claim is fake: I have now a 50% chance of roleblocking the Goon meaning no kill happening that night UNLESS I get roleblocked too (basically a 1 in 6 chance because scum doesn't know where to shoot) and 50% chance of roleblocking the Roleblocker, in which case Xzibit comes in and throws his catch phrase around but nothing else really happens. + Show Spoiler [For the meme impaired] + ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/njaLg.png) Position after Night 1: FourFace died. Kohbee claims to be roleblocked. This means I have confirmation that the Goon had indeed succeeded in killing his victim that night. To me, that means that Kohbee is less likely scum because if he were scum that means there's 50% chance of him being the Goon and then an 83% chance of the roleblocker not targeting me correctly and my block actually succeeding, meaning that by pure probabilistic analysis Kohbee has 50%*83%=42% less chance of being mafia than anyone else, which is a slight town tell. (If you don't believe that, triple check your math and then tell me, I'm pretty sure of that calculation being correct) Knowing that Kohbee is 40% less probable to be scum than everyone else tells me to, I proceed to first make him stop his flame warring, then I concentrate on analysing Solohan50's behaviour which I do not feel the need of elaborating too much because I posted lengthily in the thread about it. Kohbee saying that he's roleblocked makes no difference, he had to say it. Kohbee needed to say it because he otherwise had to come up with some detective result, Kohbee needed to say it because he was actually most likely double roleblocked, once by mafia and once by me while protecting him. Night 2: This is where the fun part begins because I have no idea what the results of it will be: I am currently jailing Solohan50. So here I am repeating the math and logic from above, but with different repercussions than last time: If Solohan50 is scum: 50% that he is Roleblocker, 50% that he is Goon; of those 50% the Roleblocker has 3/4 or 75% chance of missing me and my roleblocking actually goes through, so overall 3/8 or 37,5% chance of me accomplishing something with my action. If I don't, nothing will happen and the kill will go through (most likely on me). If Solohan50 is town: My action does nothing and we are royally screwed because we can't distinguish that from the case that he is the Roleblocker / that he is the Goon and the Roleblocker got me. The night kill goes through and I am again most likely dead. Position after Night 2 (extrapolated): Possibility 1: Nobody gets killed. This is the best situation for us because we know for sure that Solohan50 is the goon (or scum choose to nokill, but that doesn't make any sense whatsoever for them) and we can lynch him assuming you are trusting my claim (I'm hoping you are). Possibility 2: I get killed. You have now absolute confirmation from my flip to trust what I have said about my role, reads and actions, so don't waste it; barring any other scumslips that might yet happen it's probably best to lynch Solohan50 in this situation. Possibility 3: Someone else than me gets killed. I don't deem this scenario particularly likely but I'm listing it here anyway. In this case, I'm open for Day 3 discussion (Maybe not in full swing because I'm celebrating easter with my family, but I'll manage to participate in the game nonetheless). My thoughts on other people HiroPro As I once said (+ Show Spoiler [another wall of text] + On April 04 2012 09:50 KharadBanar wrote: Now that's getting somewhere. Nice to see you actually putting some effort into coordinating people My opinions for you, sir: I honestly haven't thought all that much about HiroPro yet, but after some reading he sounds like someone who puts a good amount of quality control into his posts and only contributes if there is something sensible/new to say, which I at times missed among other participants of this game, but his self-limitation goes not too far into the luking direction, so there's definitely some town vibes in there. Also appreciates some of my posting, but that's no towntell but a personal matter  On marvellosity I have a null read overall, the reason for this being that he doesn't behave like obvious scum (obvious scum being lurking, posting bad reads etc.) but not like obvious town either. If he happens to be scum, my gut instinct would suspect his buddy to be you, because he basically saved you in the Great Voting Craze™ by putting Therapist up one vote. This doesn't make him scum automatically though because I had basically exactly the same thought processes up to this point, believing Therapist to be one of the most scummy persons around. (And I'm a townie, right? )My view on Solohan50 has not changed since the last time I wrote about it. Reading his filter (which is easy, since it's the shortest of all) I found his case on you less than compelling to say the least (It centers on your vote cast in the very beginning of the game). Add to that the fact that he refused to take the vote off of you in the Great Voting Craze™ and it could well be that there's a scum member wanting to finish a blue somewhere in there. Either that, or he's a very zealous townie which could backfire in other lynch votes later on. The only case I'm really excluding from my considerations there is that you are both scum, because he could have easily changed his vote around during that mess and therefore made sure to get a townie with it. This was however worked out by FourFace before, I just now caught that while re-reading the thread. This means that you actually have a slight town read in my book, believe it or not. However, nothing is confirmed just yet and all my opinions are subject to change if someone objects in an eloquent and non-scummy manner. tl;dr: ##Vote: Solohan50 P.S. After finishing up this tremendous wall of text, I would invite omnomMuffins along to join our discussion as it finally has gotten the chance to get a little more civilised and the chance to get hit by randomly flying accusations has slightly lowered. strongandbig I never saw anything flawed within your argumentations, I have however sometimes disagreed with your priorities, e.g. lynching Kohbee on Day 2 over Solohan50. However, in that case you didn't have the information I had and it's completely understandable for me that you acted how you acted. Overall, quite town to me. omnomMuffins I never had an overly strong read on him, sometimes he didn't make as much sense as I would have hoped (the Eternal Flame Wars Extended Edition) but he did give an acceptable apology and getting upset on a forum isn't exactly what I would call scummy. Read evaluation: Town-ish. marvellosity My gut instinct was all over the place on him at different times. The only noteworthy "read" I'm getting is not from marvellosity's filter, but rather from Kohbee (+ Show Spoiler [here] + On April 04 2012 22:09 Kohbee wrote: Sleep over, Deep breath, Logic time. Let’s go. Strong and Omnom I would like for both of you to reconsider your vote on me instead of Solohan50. Strong, I read your case on me and responded to it. I will reiterate some key points that I believe refute what you think are scum tells. Me telling therapist that I wouldn't talk to him was not me stifling discussion, I simply wanted Hiropro to answer for himself. Also, you act like I wanted a bandwagon on Hiropro but I never told anyone to vote for him or even asked others opinions on him. I presented a 1 sentence case based on his 2 sentences in the thread and waited for a response. Your second point basically boils down to you believing that a cop would not play the way I have. I don't know how many games of forum mafia you have played, but you will quickly find out that you can never depend on people to play as you would (in any role) and you can almost never depend on them to play "right". Omnom, your vote on me is (imo) mostly based off the "fight" we had in the thread for a few hours/days. I think we both got emotionally heated and ended up voting for one another based off this. I ask you to not make the same mistake twice (I call it a mistake because I know I am town) by voting for 2 townies based off you being mad at them for being assholes. I know that you think I am annoying and abrasive, tbh I don't care that you think that. I will answer any direct questions from now on but I will no longer post as I have previously as I don't need reactions anymore, I have found the scum team. However, if you vote for solohan, regardless of outcome it will completely shut me up. If he flips town, I will take responsibility, post my apologies, and take my impending lynch. When he flips scum, I will high five myself, then vote marvel tomorrow without any argumentation. I believe that you two and Hiropro and KB are our remaining town. If you do not see the logic in KB's and my own case against Solohan today I ask that you please believe me and him upon my flip. Solohan is scum. Marvel is scum. Omnom, I wanted to lynch you and I saw you townslip hard. This post+ Show Spoiler + On April 03 2012 09:47 omnomMuffins wrote: EBWOP: Wait, we don't have the confirmed set? I thought it was 2 mafia, one godfather, the other role blocker, and a cop and a medic? Time to read the OP more closely. Strong has been open with everything he has done. He doesn't seem to have any hidden motive and is more than willing to share his opinions. He does this is a genuine manner and there doesn't seem to be any hesitation or contradiction in his play. If I do get lynched and when I flip Sane Cop, this should immediately confirm Hiropro and KB as town. To argue otherwise is stupid and illogical. Hey Kohbee, why is Marvel also scum? Well thats pretty simple. Marvel's day 1 was bad (as he admitted) but he covered it by saving a blue to lynch a townie. The funny thing about Marvel's play is that he is literally never willing to accept responsibility for anything he does. Every decision he makes is laced with an out for him + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 08:54 marvellosity wrote: EBWOP: I still think Therapist. is townie, but I think the chance he's mafia is a bit higher right now than Kohbee. On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. ##Vote: Kohbee In this post he literally sets up the scum's night actions + Show Spoiler + On April 02 2012 09:16 marvellosity wrote: Bah. Ok let's think. Therapist is townie, and if Kohbee is telling the truth, he is blue cop. If that is the case, the clear play for mafia is to hit Kohbee. Mafia could go for the double bluff and not hit Kohbee, but if he's the cop it's way too risky because he could find out their alignment. If Kohbee is lying, then he's mafia. And if Kohbee is mafia, then I think we can say without doubt he won't be killing himself. So we should know at the end of the night what is what. He also says that he has 2 scum reads, but only posts reads on me. + Show Spoiler + On April 03 2012 23:24 marvellosity wrote: At the moment, I have two possible scum reads, one expected, one perhaps not - but I'd like to start with Kohbee, the expected. He is also chainsaw defending Solohan50 like the life of his game was on the line. He just softly OMGUS'd Hiropro with a completely vague argument for why he is voting the way he is. + Show Spoiler + If I don't see either Strong or Omnom respond to this I will repost on the next page and so on until they do On April 05 2012 10:25 strongandbig wrote: If it has to do with your reads on other players who are still alive, then I may share the same interpretation, but be relating it to Kohbee's situation in a different way from you. I think I may know what you're referring to, though. Anyway, what I'd like to bring people's attention to are the following posts: From Marvellosity: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 11:45 marvellosity wrote: Sigh. You're so aggressive. You mentioned him in a couple of other posts too, looking at your filter. You've pointed fingers at almost everybody in the game. Almost your whole filter reads to me as creating a bad town atmosphere (various OMGUS, attacks, etc). You've sown confusion where there didn't have to be any, pointed fingers, and with your arguments with Fourface and omnom totally derailed town discussion. You roleclaimed blue in a terrible fashion for town; this could be scummy play or bad townie play, but together with the rest of your posts clearly leans towards a desperate scum move. The first guy to consistently attack you in the thread, therapist, wound up a dead townie. The 2nd guy, Fourface, who attacked you, wounded up killed. Now Solohan, the next guy who's consistently on your back, is who you're trying to make the 3rd dead guy based on a silly case with his wording of his posts (which came across clearly enough to me). Of secondary consideration here is the large amount of information we get from a Kohbee lynch. As Fourface handily pointed out earlier, we can already eliminate several Kohbee + someone else combinations. If/when Kohbee flips scum, we already have a big head start on scum #2. If Kohbee miraculously flips as blue cop, again the information is vast. Kohbee is scum and people should vote for him. ##Vote: Kohbee From solohan50: + Show Spoiler + On April 04 2012 10:47 Solohan50 wrote: KB, since you're the second person to say that my case against Kohbee doesn't make sense, I'll try rephrasing it to see if it helps get my point across. If not, then perhaps I'm incorrect and need to rethink my position. The reasons I think that Kohbee is the most logical Mafia pick are the following: - He was the #1 suspect on Day 1 (he was up two votes, 4-2, until the roleclaim). - One of his loud critics, Therapist, was mis-lynched because of the last minute roleclaim. Since Therapist was the second choice for the Day 1 lynch (behind Kohbee), the roleclaim was a good way to spread confusion and get the second choice lynched. - Kohbee's loudest critic, FourFace, was killed immediately after Therapist. While FourFace's lack of spam may help Town a bit, FourFace was also Kohbee's most outspoken enemy and it would be in Kohbee's interest to have him taken out. Having your most vocal opponent taken out would certainly be useful, especially when other people disliked FourFace as well and probably wouldn't mourn his loss (at least one person voted for FourFace just out of spite because of his spam). On top of that, "Kohbee vs Fourface v2" (as KB so eloquently put it) started immediately after, clogging up the thread even more. The reason I seem to focus on Kohbee so much is that he's the only read that I really have right now. I've posted what I've gleaned from other players, but mostly I've just been able to find people that I'm relatively certain are town (like KB). I'm also well aware that my single-mindedness may come around and bite me. If I was worried about that, I would've jumped on the Therapist bandwagon like everyone else, especially when it was clear that Kohbee was going to live. I even reaffirmed my choice despite the risk near the end of the vote, because I believe that Kohbee has the strongest chance of being Mafia. Obviously my reads have been a bit screwy this game. I think that I was expecting other players to play in a certain style, and clearly they weren't. However, my strongest remaining read comes from my gut: it's no coincidence that these two posts both make the argument that fourface's death was because he was in a fight with Kohbee. (They're also pretty long posts by people who don't make very long posts very often). I know we can't vote at night, but if we could, I would be voting for solohan50. Maybe I'm posting this now in case I get killed; or maybe I don't believe what I'm saying at all, and I'm posting something I think is wrong to trick mafia into not killing me. You decide. This post was written during the first four hours of Night 2, 2:30 AM to 5:30 AM local time. If you stayed with me through this, props to you. This is me done for the night and chances are that I'm also done for the game with this. If so, give 'em hell town! | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
YES YES I came to the conclusion much earlier in the obs QT/with my RL friend on IM But to see the same decision get made in the thread by strongandbig.., With great power comes great responsibility comes great indecision, and he mastered it. Congratulations. Also, like a great man once said: CombatEx wrote: EZ EZ EZ EZ EZ | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
Just post it here in the thread ^^ | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
marvellosity correctly realised this and beat strongandbig over the head with this argument repeatedly because it was the only viable reasoning he had to paint himself as town. But hey, whatever works, right? | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 11 2012 10:32 Kohbee wrote: The fact that he knew that killing muffins would paint him town is your answer to why his argument is not logically sound at all. It is meaningless WIFOM But painting himself town after killing omnomMuffins is much harder to do than simply offing strongandbig and watching the other two accuse each other (I guarantee you that would have happened). That's my whole point. It's much easier in the position of scum!marvellosity to simply kill strongandbig than to even begin to consider a WIFOM case which might or might not work depending on strongandbig's though process. But I don't want to waste time here. As another wise man once said: On March 17 2012 11:09/March 22 2012 09:11 Grackaroni wrote: We're done here. (I apologise in advance for the bad and obscure reference, but I had to) | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
My initial thought upon seeing the kill of Night 2 in the daypost was "oh thank God they shot FourFace out of all the townies in this game". I can't tell you how hard it is to concentrate on anything productive at town if you are constantly facing that disruptive voice you can't possibly predict. It's hard to estimate how much town productivity was shot down the drain that day simply because of that fact. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 11 2012 10:52 Kohbee wrote: So if hiro had killed strongandbig, couldn't he have used the exact same argument of "IM NOT AN IDIOT THAT WOULD SHOOT STRONGANDBIG". Just because it worked this time doesn't make it a good or logical practice. I think at that point omnomMuffins would have likely not believed him anyway. HiroPro was the player faced with the worst choice of the three possible scum candidates at endgame. marvellosity could have killed off strongandbig and gotten away with it no problem, and strongandbig would have had the game won almost no matter what because everyone had him confirmed as town in their book. | ||
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KharadBanar
Austria463 Posts
On April 11 2012 11:04 marvellosity wrote: KB, Kohbee simply does not understand the reasoning above. The fact that you, the rest of town, and every other contributor in this thread understands it will not help him, I fear. OK I'm stopping it. If an explanation from VisceraEyes himself doesn't do the trick I don't know if I can do any better  Oh and by the way, hello VisceraEyes! I'm glad that veterans are taking the time to look at our newbie game and coach a little bit :D | ||
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