EPTMr. Wiggles Mini Mafia II
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
Stupid questions I have: What happens if there is one mafia and a serial killer remaining, who wins? If a Watcher is watching a Tracker who is tracking someone what information, if any, does the Watcher return? Doesn't the serial killer introduce too much KP? If you have a 3 mafia setup, it would be theoretically possible for town to win night 1 right? | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On February 28 2012 02:35 Mattchew wrote: The Setup is balanced Alright, I guess I believe you...  And maybe I have that tracker/watcher thing backwards? Basically I want to know if it's possible for either of them to detect that the other is a blue. So if the Tracker is tracking a Watcher, does the Tracker see the person is a watcher or do they just appear as though they are using no powers during the night. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On February 28 2012 02:48 GreYMisT wrote: A tracker see's who his target visits, a watcher see's who visits a target. If a tracker is tracking a watcher who is watching someone, they would return "your target visited X last night" Ah, thank you, this is what I wanted to know! | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
And 8 golden tickets, are we going to the Grand Galloping Gala?! @_@ | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On February 29 2012 15:35 Adam4167 wrote: I've got a bad feeling about this. I'm sorry the correct response was *in a dwarf voice* "and my mousepad". "Monitor" would also have been acceptable. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 01 2012 12:18 Bluelightz wrote: derp, EBWOP So, to start some discussion here's some topics, 1). Should we adopt LA-Liars/Lurkers? Or just stick to analysis? 2). The lynch. 3). Activity(Policy on lurkers) Yeah, no lynching systems please. Lynches need to be based on strong logical analysis and evidence. Anything else really ends up hurting town more than anything. On March 01 2012 12:45 Pandain wrote: I was going to go to sleep but I had to say it. Probulous stop spamming the thread. Your pulling a Pandain and making the whole thread a shitfest of spam. Why does it matter where people are? Why do you say a post to say "hey is anyone here?" If you keep spamming the thread, it creates a bad atmosphere that hurts the town. I'm too tired to explain but just stop posting if it doesn't have a real purpose, and never post if your just bored. + Show Spoiler + On a separate note, have you played much mafia here? Only contributes to spam. Keep outside conversations outside. Agreed. The more fluff, random posts in the thread, the easier it is for scum to hide. Keep it focused. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 01 2012 13:28 Probulous wrote: @Toast, did you read my response? I have now :D Pandain's point is valid none-the-less. We need to avoid getting sidetracked. That's all I was trying to say. On March 01 2012 13:25 Bluelightz wrote: @TheToast What do you think about how we should deal with lurkers? I would say why don't we wait for a few hours and see if we actually have any lurkers. And obvious scum should still be lynched first day one, if there are really no good candidates I would say then we should consider lynching a lurker. But in that case the lurker would be the best candidate, so I still say lynches need to be based on good analysis. I reiterate: silly lynch rules really only benefit scum. Logical analysis first please. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 01 2012 13:51 Probulous wrote: See this bugs me. It is the same for Pandain. I am trying to get people to post. I am actively pushing the thread along as best I can. What exactly do we have to avoid here? We are not on a track. I agree with Sandroba that policy talk is useless but it was brought up and I responded to those that asked me questions. However both of you guys are saying that I am spamming the thread with useless information. When I respond with my reasoning, neither of you acknowledge it. Pandain then ignores it and suggests that because I took "so long" writing it, I am hiding something. How do those things go together? Pandain calls me out for posting too much, but I am hiding something? Does anyone else find this strange? I wasn't trying to specifically call you out. See the first word in that bolded sentence? "WE" As in ALL of us, together, need to avoid getting side tracked. I'm also unsure how you get me accusing you of "spamming" from me saying we need to avoid getting side tracked. And to be fair, you did start a side conversation with Misder. I don't know that constitutes "spamming", but it's not going to lead to posts that can provide good analysis one way or the other. Just saying. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 01 2012 14:15 Probulous wrote: You said you agreed with Pandain, his accusation was that I am spamming. Hence you think I am spamming. What exactly are we getting sidetracked from? The only thing we can analyse is what people post. If people don't post, then we can't analyse. We don't have any defined targets, we have no direction, we have nothing right now. As for Misder, I don't like policies, he did. We discussed it. We agreed to disagree. Problem? That is the only thing of substance in this thread so far. Toast, I know you think logically. Do you find this post scummy? I wasn't trying to say you were spamming, I don't know why you are being so defensive about this. Pandain made a point about avoiding outside conversation in the thread, I agreed with that point. I wasn't trying to accuse you of anything. So no, I don't have a problem with it. And you're right, I do try to think logically. As such I don't think two posts by themselves are enough to prove anyone as scum. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 02 2012 07:51 Pandain wrote: I believe Probulous is town, or at least not scummy enough to lynch day 1. He's way too active/aggressive I feel for him to be mafia, although I'll have to look at his previous games for confirmation. I'm most suspicious of The_Toast. Contrary to his last game as town, (filter HERE) he is much more taciturn this game. Compare that with his current posts. All hes done is agree with what others said, and justify his own views(almost guiltily/apolegtic.) generic, "pro town" advice. #vote the Toast Let me get this straight. You think I'm scum because I'm being too nice? Based on what, the one* other game of mafia I've played? Well then, why don't you take a closer look at that game, you might see that I didn't post any serious analysis or votes until like 24 hours into the game. I prefer to wait until there is a good amount of evidence before making any votes or claims. And why does agreeing with you contribute to my scumminess? Are you now suddenly in favor of conversations that side track the game? Or just in favor of lynching people who agree with you about avoiding conversations that side track the thread? I love how you quoted me defending you against Probe's accusation as well. Excellent evidence you have provided. Pandain right now you have 4 posts in this game. You called out Probulous with some vague accusations: On March 01 2012 12:57 Pandain wrote: That took a long time to post. Are you hiding something? Then after both probe and sandroba call you out on this, you've very next post is--not responding to either of these--but rather to come out claiming Probulous is town--without a single shred of evidence or analysis--and claiming that I am scum based on scant evidence. Then post #4, have you addressed probe or sandroba's accusations? Nope. You tell Probe (who again, has not mysteriously become townish) that his vote on AKCoT is bad and that tunneling me is the best bet. Pandain, right now I still don't think there is enough evidence against you to make a scum call; but it looks to me like you are desperately trying to focus attention off of yourself. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 02 2012 09:18 Pandain wrote: AKCT isn't actingi scummy. What was his first post? A vote of you with no explanation. Mafia would never ever EVER do that, that's so suspicious. Mafia are usually careful, and reticent in demeanor(part of why I think The_Toast is mafia). Theres one thing I have suspicions about but as of yet I'm waiting to see what he does about it, and telling him will ruin it. As of now I feel any evidence regarding AKCT is speculative, while more conclusive evidence is elsewhere. Toast's latest response is more interesting actually.... Contrast this tone with the others. Looks like hes trying hard to make a good point(with italics + bolding and shit). Not only that but while writing this post he researched other players(shown by his accusations of me, saying how I had 4 posts, noting my play). Bolded and italics and shit. Yeah, I never use those. Rock solid analysis. And lol @ the "research part". Wow, I clicked on your filter, crazy hard research. His accusations of me mean that he could either be a trigger-happy townie, or that he's trying to downplay me. I can't determine anything out of that, actually it sort of helps his case. I didn't make any accusations, I made some insinuations but no outright accusations. Again, going back to the last game I played (which you seem to like to reference) you will note I really don't like to make any votes or call out anyone as scum without some good analysis and lots of evidence. This part is quite interesting though: I'm interested what you meant by that, Toast. Why would you defending me lend you any town support? How would you know if I'm town? Are you saying you're not town?? More than anything I was bemused by the fact that you quoted that as evidence against me. Go back to that page, I wasn't arguing that you were town. All I said was that 2 posts weren't enough to support any of Probe's accusations against you. Basically I wanted to prevent a day 1 bandwagoning, and as I have said multiple times now, I prefer to use analysis and evidence before calling anyone out as scum. I was (and still am) completely lost as to how that figured into the rest of your argument about me being too nice and therefore scum. By far though the most compelling and persuasive argument against him is the fact that he accused me, rather certainly in his opinion, that i was "desperately trying to hide something", and that I'm playing scummily. And yet overall, I'm not a good enough vote? Seems a bit of a paradox there. Allow me to quote myself, as you apparently didn't read this the first time: Pandain, right now I still don't think there is enough evidence against you to make a scum call; Doesn't mean your not scum. Just means I can't prove it yet. The part about you trying to refocus attention has more to do with the fact that you still haven't responded to probe or sandro's posts against you. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 02 2012 18:52 Palmar wrote: Toast and Pandain and anyone else I might be forgetting, but if I forget you it's because your content has been worthless so far. So take it as an insult please. Lol jerk On March 02 2012 18:41 Palmar wrote: I still think we should be lynching sandroba. His play so far this game has been weird, all he's done is shown up a few times to make some short stubby posts and then disappears again. Seems odd since every tutorial/analysis I've read says lurking is a bad way to play as Mafia. Shouldn't a vet like sandro know this? What does he have to gain as scum by lurking? I've got my money on SK, it makes the most sense. At this point I'm pretty convinced Probulous is town. The whole "spam" thing was rediculous, the list he posted served a purpose it wasn't just fluff. He's also been one of the most active members of this game so far, he's got just about the most posts to go through and there's really nothing that jumps out as specifically scummy. He's so far been pretty even handed with his analysis. I thought his defense against AKCT was pretty good as well: On March 02 2012 06:59 Probulous wrote: Tea, in all your posts you have not been able even once to explain how my actions are mafia driven. You entire case is that I have been saying the right things. How does that make me mafia? You my friend have started with a conclusion and then made your argument based on it. What scumhunting have you done? You sheeped RG's terrible analysis on me and have called me out for providing nothing. See my decon post for my rebuttal to that silly idea. You sir better shape up because right now you are being hypocritical and targeting me with aweful logic, both of those make you scum in my book. He easily points out the flaw in AKCT's bizzare argument, doesn't use any fluff (there are no pointless quotes here, no out of place lists), and all around presents a solid defense of himself. Probe's been a bit inconsistant as to who he is focusing on for Day 1, but overall I don't see anything in any of his posts that should indicate he is anything other than town. Still not sure what the deal is with Pandain, his posts have been sporatic and his analysis wierd, but I still don't think that there is enough to make any kind of a scum call on him yet. But I'm going to be keeping my eyes on him. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 02 2012 19:59 Probulous wrote: Jackal given you said this in Mafia L Would you shoot Sandroba if you had a gun this game. I agree with Palmar that he has been hiding which is scummy as hell. His case on Pandain is insubstantial and he isn't here. I have never played with him but since Jackal has a history of recognising Sandroba's scum, I think your opinion here would be useful. This is interesting. I'm interested to know Jackal's answer to this as well. Pandain has made a number of posts since sandro's accusations but sandro still hasn't shown back up to comment on them. If Palmar is right and Sandro is scum, why isn't Sandro pushing Pandain harder? And where is he? To me his his behavior makes no sense in the context of scum. I'm thinking he's the serial killer. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
You realize you voted for me AFTER sandro voted you, right? So what exactly are you trying to say here? Why are you even quoting this? What's the point here? | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
Oh, I missed that. All I saw was sandro switch his vote to me and suddenly Pandain is quoting both of their votes. >.> | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 03 2012 05:05 sandroba wrote: Hey toast your explanation of why I can't be scum reeks of extreme bs what can you say about that? Are you trying to discourage me from arguing against you as scum? Sandro, you've got only got 12 posts this game, clearly you've been lurking. You've made only one piss poor attempt at analysis, every other post you have made so far has been a short bit of weird fluff. It's glaringly clear you're not a vanilla townie this game. Idk what you rolled, but SK makes the most sense to me right now. It explains the lurker, and explains the abundance of fluff--even scum would be attempting to steer the game in some direction. If you can come up with something that explains your behavior this game, I'm all ears. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 03 2012 06:07 Pandain wrote: Also anyone who realizes about what Palmar is should note the same for Toast Wait, when did Palmar come into this? You've accused me of being scum, so are you now implying that Palmar is scum too? And his latest play is suspicious. The harsh reaction to Sandroba's bad vote reasoning, as well as to my quote of the above material, hes playing like he's mafia. My harsh reaction? Really? I don't even have a vote on him, I've just pointed that his posts are weird and lurky, and he could very possibly be the SK. Why is it you call me out for this and not the one person who is actively seeking a lynch on him? Your reasoning is so selective here. On March 03 2012 06:20 Pandain wrote: How do you know what is correct? "They have correctly identified me as town", mafia do that all the time. In fact one of the best ways to gain town cred as mafia is to say "yeah this guy is innocent" when he's getting lynched. So everyone who has declaired anybody as town this game is scum? Pandain, again your powers of absurd selective reasoning are beyond me. Everyone of the reasons you have used against me could be applied to half the people in this game. More rediculously the "core" of your evidence seems to stem from the ONE other full game of mafia I've played. Either you are a terrible town or you are scum trying to drum up a bandwagon. I'm beginning to think it's the latter. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 03 2012 06:07 Pandain wrote: Also anyone who realizes about what Palmar is should note the same for Toast What does Palmar have to do with anything? and your harsh reactions to weak accusations So what, you are admitting your accusations are weak? | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
Vote: No Lynch | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 03 2012 10:17 Mr. Wiggles wrote: There are no No Lynches, you may only vote for other players, or yourself. Sorry. ##Vote: TheToast + Show Spoiler + The issue appears resolved, but I was having problems when I re-enabled windows firewall; also same deal with my router... Either way I think I've almost got it fixed | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
alright, pretty sure the wireless router is dead, but I think I'm good for right now Right now Pandain is looking awful scumish to me. He caught my attention with this post again Probulous early in the game: On March 01 2012 12:57 Pandain wrote: That took a long time to post. Are you hiding something? It was weird and out of place at the time. Both Probulous and sandro called him out on it and he completely ignored them. He has yet to respond to their accusations. Instead he comes back at me with accusations that I'm scum because I've been too nice this game, based off the one other full game of Mafia I've played. His accusations have just gotten weirder from there: Contrast this tone with the others. Looks like hes trying hard to make a good point(with italics + bolding and shit). Not only that but while writing this post he researched other players(shown by his accusations of me, saying how I had 4 posts, noting my play). Apparently I'm scum because I bold things. wut? I've gone into why these couple of posts are complete BS in my previous posts, so I will refrain from repeating myself here. These two posts were really what convinced me though: Also anyone who realizes about what Palmar is should note the same for Toast On March 03 2012 06:46 Pandain wrote: I didn't call him scum. Anyone who understands will understand, I willl not go into more detail. Given his accusations against me, he's basically making a scum claim against Palmar; then comes back and says he won't elaborate on that. To me, Palmar is reading townish right now. I have no idea where Pandain got this from and since he refuses to elaborate, I can only assume that he's decided to setup one of the most veteran scum hunters in this game for a day 2 lynch. I think even if most of us though Palmar was scum, no one is going to support his lynch Day 1. So what's the next best thing for scum to do? Yup, set him up for the day 2 lynch. This reads completely scummy to me. ##Unvote ##Vote: Pandain | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
 On March 04 2012 07:49 Probulous wrote: TheToast You deliberately chose to vote for someone who was not going to be lynched. Your vote was at 11:50 and you voted for Pandain who had two votes at the time. It was obvious that only Sandroba or Misder were possible candidates because everyone had already placed their votes. Yours was last. You effectively chose Misder over Sandroba without saying so. Explain. How do you know that he wasn't going to be lynched? 10 minutes is more than enough time for two people to change their votes; I've seen it happen before. I wasn't the only one with my vote on Pandain, RG did as well; I think (and still think) there was more than enough reason to vote him for lynch. I also posted my analysis of Pandain, it's not like I just dropped a vote and left. I would have done it sooner but I had IRL stuff that was in the way. Fact is I didn't have a good read on Misder and I was at the time pretty sure Sandro was the SK. I think Pandain was the better day 1 lynch. As far as Bluelightz goes; lynching him is tricky business. Based on the game I played with him and the past games of his that I've looked through, he is such a bad town player that he is impossible to get a decent read off of. In NMM 1 I was pretty convinced through most of the game he was mafia just because his posting was so random and contained so much fluff. Turns out he was town, but I honestly think we would have been better off lynching him early on to eliminate him as a suspect and stop him from muddying the waters (which I believe I used as an argument for his lynching in that game). If the votes are there at the end of the day, I'll support his lynch but I seriously think he could flip either way. Sandro; well it looks like I may have been wrong about the SK thing. If this game had an SK we should have seen two killed last night, though I suppose it's possible that the SK and scum both tried to kill RG? I suppose there's a decent chance of that given the fact that RG basically claimed blue. Fact is though that Sandro's posting has been and continues to be strange and pointless as well as very irregular. While there's a chance he could still be the SK, he's leaning scum in my mind. I don't know what to make about the alleged hit, I would think if he was a vet he wouldn't have been so lurky day 1. I would be interested to see what his response to the arguments against him; if it isn't good I'd say he would make a good Day 2 lynch. Pandain; still tunneling me, still scummy IMO. I don't know why no one else has called him out about the fake blue claim. He claims watcher, get's half the town bandwagoning against AKCT, then after AKCT's response looks completely townish Pandain backs off and claims he was lying about the blue claim. Is that suppose to make me believe Pandain is town? Why was it even necessary to test AKCT?? There was one vote against him Day1, obviously most of town already decided that AKCT was town or at least leaning-town, why waste a fake claim testing him? Why not test one of the other people who are more scum leaning like sandro or Bluelightz? Pandain seems to be convinced I'm scum, why didn't he test me with the fake claim??? This makes no sense at all. The only way it makes sense is in the context that Pandain is scum. AKCT is a newbie who's been reletively quiet this game and hasn't really been aggressive at all. I think Pandain knew he could count on AKCT looking townish when accused. Then Pandain gets to call off the bandwagon and declairs that AKCT is town (seems like everyone else figured that out already without the rediculous theatrics...). Sorry, but this seems to me like an attempt to frame himself as town, nothing more. Pandain is a vet player, I can see him trying something like this. IMO this whole fake claim changes nothing, Pandain is just as suspicious as before. I'm putting my vote right back on him for Day 2. If the majority isn't there by the end of day 2, I'll consider moving my vote; but right now he is the best candidate IMO for this and the other stuff I've previously posted. ##Vote: Pandain | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 02:59 Palmar wrote: That's a dumb vote Toast. While Pandain's gambit was hilariously bad, I'd still bet on this being a town-pandain idea rather than scum Pandain. If it was a town idea, why focus on AKCT? That's the part that has me suspicious, he's been tunneling me all game long then decides to use a fake claim to test AKCT? Why not use it on Bluelightz if he's suspicious of him? It just doesn't make any sense. In all honesty, the whole fake claim isn't any kind of proof that Pandain is scum. But when taken into account with all the other scummy stuff he's done this game; I think there is a good case for Pandain being mafia. Paperscraps made a good point too, about Pandain tunneling me the whole game then switching to Bluelightz halfway through day 2 is strange too. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 04:26 Palmar wrote: can we kill sandroba today? I don't mind then killing pandain later for bad. .... for bad what? Frankly I think there is a better case against Pandain. Sandro said a few pages back that he was requesting a replacement, so idk if he's got IRL stuff that's causing him to be lurky. I have to say though the posts he has made so far have been kind of strange and out of place. I want to see if he has any response to the accusations, the vet claim is interesting and could explain some of his posts but he needs to give us some reason to believe this. In all, I think he is a good lynch candidate, but Pandain is better IMO. Palmar, seriously, who writes this: On March 05 2012 06:29 Pandain wrote: Also I know this is going to come up so to get it out of the way: 1. There is NO reason I would do this if mafia. Think of one. Please. Tell me. He does some stupid blue fake claim then tells everyone that this means he can't possibly be mafia. Seriously wtf is this? When have you ever seen a town player do this? | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 05:02 Paperscraps wrote: Side note: TheToast is scum. Would you like to explain that or are you just going to sling unsupported accusations at me? | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 05:27 Paperscraps wrote: Have you been playing this game? Idk have I? Maybe I just imagined it? O.O | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 06:42 Probulous wrote: This is not an explanation. Like you said there was 10 minutes left. So you drop a vote on someone who was neither first or second on the list. When you made that vote you were effectively choosing Misder. If there was only 10 minutes left, why did you leave it there? You say "it's not like I just dropped a vote and left" but either you did leave the thread immediately, or you chose to keep your vote on someone who was clearly not getting lynched. The fact that you say "I was at the time pretty sure Sandro was the SK" and he was second in votes yet you didn't vote for him is damning in my eyes. Updated scum list Sandroba TheToast Bluelightz So everyone who didn't have their votes on Misder or Sandro are auto-scum? I didn't think either of the top lynch candidates were scum, so who was I suppose to vote for? SK is going to go after scum first, so even if I was right abou that it wouldn't have been as helpful as killing scum Day 1. Pandain was the best candidate, that's who I voted for. I don't know why you're trying to pin this on me. I'm not one of the idiots that jumped on the lynch Misder bandwagon. I put my vote on scum; I'm not responsible for what the rest of you did Day1. I didn't "effectively" choose Misder, he was lynched by the three idiots who hopped on the bandwagon. What's your argument here Probulous? Would I look less scummy in your eyes if I had voted to lynch a townie? Pandain is scum, that's who I voted to lynch. I wasn't the only vote on Pandain, RG had his vote on him too. Why is that? Maybe it's because Pandain looks scummy as all hell? That was two votes on Pandain, only two people would have needed to switch to make the lynch. Same exact fucking situation for Palmar. Paperscraps & Adam4167 were both on Palmar, and Adam4167 posted less than two hours before the deadline. Why didn't he switch his vote, after all Palmar had no chance of getting lynched? Maybe it was because Adam had reason to believe Palmar was scummy. Probulous the logic you are using is what allows scum to start the lynch bandwagons like they used against Misder. This idea that everyone has to vote one or two candidates is exactly what Mafia loves as it allows them to railroad town into picking between two townies. It's up to town to vote for who they think is scum, not who they think have the best chance of getting lynched. News flash, townies ALWAYS have the best chance of getting lynched. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 07:07 Probulous wrote: I try and make this brief
You were around when the lynch went down, you could see that no-one was switching. Pushing for a Pandain lynch is fine but you cannot deny that you chose not to lynch the SK. Now you say that the SK would be working for town. That's a big assumption. How do you know he shoots straight? More importantly you chose to let someone you didn't think was scum die just so you could vote for Pandain. Either you did drop your vote and leave in which case you have lied to us, OR you watched Misder get lynched (someone you thought was town) and chose to keep the SK alive. I don't think it's an assumption at all. Allow me to quote something the late RG wrote: On March 02 2012 03:48 rgTheSchworz wrote: it s probable that we dont have an SK. Either way, he is town at first, cause Mafia are his enemies. He doesnt want to end up alone Vs scum, cuz scum know who s scum and can find him pretty easily. So, Mr SK, we lynch u after all scum have gone,ok? RG's point was really good. If SK takes out town first, SK looses the game. Simple as that. Early on SK is essentially an extra vig for town. Makes no sense to kill them when there is a practically confirmed scum player. And I didn't LET anyone die. You all were quite capable of changing your votes. Stop trying to stick the Misder lynch on me. I didn't hop on the bandwagon, I didn't vote for him. I would have posted my analysis against Pandain earlier but I was seriously having IRL interet issues. If that makes me scum, then whatever, there's nothing I can do to confirm myself as town then apparently. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 07:43 Probulous wrote: Now you say that the SK would shoot mafia. That much is obvious. I go back to my previous point. He doesn't know who mafia are (he could shoot town) and we have to kill him before the end of the game. Obviously it is better to lynch mafia over the SK, but it is better to lynch the SK over town. Probulous, by your logic vig's should all be lynched day 1 too. Because that's exactly what the SK is, an extra town vig. I've given my reasons for what I did and honestly, you aren't the mayor here so I don't have to defend myself to you anymore that I have already. Pandain is scum. I wanted to lynch him. That's all there was to it. As for proving you're town, a defense that I might have accepted would have been that you misread the voting rules and thought a no-lynch was going to happen. Or even if you could point to somewhere in your filter where you say that both Misder and Sandroba are town (that's what Adam did). What is this? Fine, next time I'll lie to you and tell you what you want to hear. lol Also Sandroba is not town, that much is pretty obvious. On March 06 2012 07:43 Pandain wrote: There's no reason to vote sandroba, he's not scum(no resistance at all)so that leaves either sk or town. Rather than vote him, we should merely track him. This will effectively negate any chance of him shooting again. I do believe he's sk but feel this is A better alternative as it encompasses all the reasons we would want to lynch sk without the risk of lynching town. We should use today instead as an opportunity to lynch scum. I would have agreed with you before Day 2. See the thing is, SK has 1kp per night. So where is the second night 2 hit? Sandro so far is the only one to have claimed vet and says he took the hit. Are we to assume he shot himself? I suppose there's a chance that both the SK and mafia hit RG, but that doesn't seem terribly likely. This set off alarm bells for me. I took a look at your filter Pandain, what's interesting is that this is the first time you've really discussed Sandro at all. And to come out arguing that he could possibly be town? Really? Sandro is not town this game. He's been lurky and posting weird pointless short fluff. I don't understand where you are getting this from. I'm leaving work now, so I'll be posting a bit more detailed explanation of my thoughts in a bit. But after this, my leading scum suspects are Pandain and now Sandroba. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 08:20 Probulous wrote: A vig that shoots repeatedly and wins when town dies is not the same as a normal vig. You can't deny that the existence of a SK is a danger to town. It means there is more KP around that needs town to die to win. Like I said, it makes sense for an SK to go after mafia but ultimately he has to go after town as well. So as town we lynch Mafia>SK>Town. Why didn't you bring any of this up yesterday when I came up with the sandro is SK theory? I suppose it makes sense, but I still say if there is a confirmed scum you vote them over the SK. Pandain is confirmed scum IMO. If in your terrible reasoning that makes me scum, then whatever. On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote: I actually change my mind, but mainly for two reasons: 1. By having tracker continuously track him, it wastes tracker time when he could be finding more scum(and tracker tracking new people is arguably more important then finding out more evidence). 2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist. 1. Toast calls out Pandain for defending Sandro 2. Pandain 180s and decides to lynch sandro Calling it now, Pandain Sandro scum team. Sandro's lurkiness makes me think he's not a vanilla mafia, possibly a vig. Pandain can wait for day 3. ##Unvote ##Vote: Sandroba Eating dinner now, I'll post a nice long analysis later. | ||
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TheToast
United States4808 Posts
On March 06 2012 11:09 Jackal58 wrote: I don't think Sandroba is going to flip scum. He claimed he was looking to be replaced. Nobody has voted against or argued against his lynch. If sand is scum they are bussing him. I think you are wrong. Sandro originally caught my attention for his posts, they've been really irregular to start, clearly he's been pretty lurky this game. Of the few there are, almost all of them have been really pointless, strange, and full of fluff. Originally day 1 I was thinking SK, it seemed to make sense given how lurky he is and what has seemed to be him trying to avert attention from himself. As soon as I made this accusation against him he immediately voted for my lynch day 1. Who immediately votes to lynch someone for one post? Despite there being no second kill night one (doesn't prove no SK, votes could have stacked) the real evidence for me was Pandain's reaction to sandro's imminent lynch. Pandain has barely even recognized sandro's existence this game then posts this: On March 06 2012 07:43 Pandain wrote: There's no reason to vote sandroba, he's not scum(no resistance at all)so that leaves either sk or town. Rather than vote him, we should merely track him. This will effectively negate any chance of him shooting again. I do believe he's sk but feel this is A better alternative as it encompasses all the reasons we would want to lynch sk without the risk of lynching town. We should use today instead as an opportunity to lynch scum. So here's Pandain basically defending sandro saying he could be town. Take a look at sandro's filter for this game, there's no way that he is town. Sandro's town play looks nothing like this. I called Pandain out and posted this (spoilered) + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 08:01 TheToast wrote: I would have agreed with you before Day 2. See the thing is, SK has 1kp per night. So where is the second night 2 hit? Sandro so far is the only one to have claimed vet and says he took the hit. Are we to assume he shot himself? I suppose there's a chance that both the SK and mafia hit RG, but that doesn't seem terribly likely. This set off alarm bells for me. I took a look at your filter Pandain, what's interesting is that this is the first time you've really discussed Sandro at all. And to come out arguing that he could possibly be town? Really? Sandro is not town this game. He's been lurky and posting weird pointless short fluff. I don't understand where you are getting this from. I'm leaving work now, so I'll be posting a bit more detailed explanation of my thoughts in a bit. But after this, my leading scum suspects are Pandain and now Sandroba. Just over a half hour later Pandain goes a complete 180 and posts this: On March 06 2012 08:37 Pandain wrote: I actually change my mind, but mainly for two reasons: 1. By having tracker continuously track him, it wastes tracker time when he could be finding more scum(and tracker tracking new people is arguably more important then finding out more evidence). 2. Mafia KP is hidden, so the SK might not actually exist. All that reasoning about the tracker/no lynch plan? Out the window! No clearly it was all just a terrible idea, screw it just lynch him! This is clearly a scum move. He defends him with a ridiculous argument then after getting called on it completely back tracks but does so in a way that attempts to make it look like the result of some logical reasoning. Sorry, nope. Pandain is scum and this little diddly of a post convinced me he's trying to protect Sandro and then bailed when I called him out on it. My guess is Sandro is a vig or medic. It explains why he was lurking all game and why he's been trying to keep attention off himself. Also explains why Pandain has practically ignored him this game and why he tried this clumsy defense. Also explains why there was no second kill night 1 (because there is no SK) | ||
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TheToast
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On March 06 2012 11:57 Probulous wrote: Waiting for a typical TL last minute vote switch that leads to a medic outing themselves and a no-lynch. This game has been pretty boring. Half the time I end up talking to myself. lmao. And I was right about BF that time too, that's what made it all the worse. | ||
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TheToast
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This caught my eye though: On March 06 2012 21:04 Paperscraps wrote: Also on side note: Since Sandroba flipped mafia. What does everyone think of the hit claim? 1. The hit claim was fake. 2. The hit was real and mafia/town medic saved Sandroba? There is a lot of wifom here. Thinking about this could help determine if there is an SK or not. It's interesting that you are the one who asked this question, given your last minute vote change day 2. But let's set that aside for a minute and address this question. Two possibilities here, the hit on Sandro was real, or the hit on Sandro was made up BS. Let's assume: The hit on Sandro was real: In this case we either have a vig or an SK. In the case of a vig, I would think they would have claimed by now. After a vig uses their shot they are basically not really a danger to scum anymore, other than being a confirmed townie. (in NMM 1 prphlz made it all the way to the end of the game after claiming vig) So really, there isn't much good reason for a vig to not to claim, especially in a circumstance where a claim could have really helped determine a players alignment and determine if there is an SK in this game. If the hit was real, I think the most likely circumstance is an SK. Let's assume that the SK hit Sandro and a medic protected him. From the point of view of the SK, Sandro's vet claim would have probably seemed decently legit. This makes me wonder about the people who made passionate strange defenses of Sandro Day 2 (after all the SK would want to keep town around and kill mafia). In this theorectical situation the people who come out looking SK-ish are Jackle and Paperscraps (that's where I tie this in with my previous point about Paper being the one to ask this question) for their aversion to voting Sandro. Neither provided very good reasoning for not voting Sandro, could have been they believed the vet claim. The other person that I would have to give a big FOS to in this situation would be Pandain, his bizzare defense of Sandro then flip-flop seems really strange. Maybe he also had good reason to believe Sandro's claim? The hit on Sandro was fake: If the hit was fake, SK could still exist (shot stacked with mafia shot on RG?). But this seems less likely, RG basically fake claimed blue and alluded that he was going to hit sandro night 1. From the POV of the SK, this would be a good thing. I just don't see why the SK would have a reason to hit RG, now that we know for sure Sandro wasn't the SK. So, more than likely if Sandro's claim is fake there is no SK. I happen to have my doubts that mafia would risk fake claiming a hit, but Sandro's play this game has been so weird I suppose it's a distinct possibility. In this case that it was fake, there's really not much that tells us. If we can later prove somehow that the hit was fake then FOS should probably go on the people that were pushing really hard to find the SK, probably scum who were working with Sandro to drum up some fake SK lynches. The problem is, if there is a Mafia vig or if the SK decides to not kill night 2, this could be almost difficult to prove. So if a town Vig took a shot on Sandro, that could prove there is no SK. I highly doubt SK would choose not to kill night 1 given how easily it could be passed off as a vig hit and the difficulty the SK faces in winning this game. So if there's a vig who did take a shot on Sandro Night 1 and we see two kills tonight, role claim!!! as that would prove there is a Mafia vig and stop us from wasting time looking for an SK. Other than that, I think it's wise to proceed as if Sandro's claim was real. If it was, this could potentially lead us to the SK given what I said above. I'm not suggesting we lynch anyone based on Sandro's info (that would be stupid), but it could lead us in the right direction. If he was lying, then we go in the wrong direction for a bit. But if he was telling the truth we could use it to identify the SK. | ||
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TheToast
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On March 07 2012 06:46 Probulous wrote: As for this I've explained my reasoning why I think the shot was real. Why would a mafia sandroba claim veteran with such a weak claim? If he wanted to get credit for it he would have celebrated the shot, make it clear to everyone he was targeted. Instead he responds to something else and then casually mentions the fact. It makes sense that he was shot given his reaction to it. This means scum have a medic and we have a SK. Vig would have claimed by now. Agreed about the vig. The problem that we have is whatever happens Night 2 doesn't prove anything. Two kills could mean Mafia have a vig, only one kill could mean SK decided not to submit their night action. Second one seems unlikely, but it could potentially throw everyone off. If they did this we wouldn't know about the SK until Night 4, possibly Night 5 if they did a successful fake town vig claim. So figuring out the validity of Sandro's claim is pretty important. Again, if there's a vig that hit sandro day 1 you need to role claim. While I agree with you, thing is Sandro's play was really weird this game. I don't know that we can assume anything, but as I said before, I think we should proceed under the assumption that Sandro's claim is true. If it's true, we get a good lead, if not then nothing happens (as long as we are smart and don't lynch anyone based only on his claim). If Sandro's claim is true, and there is an SK; top people to question/track/watch should be Paper, and Jackal. Jackal and Paper borth for their defense of sandro; if they thought he was a vet (since their shot didn't kill him) they may have seen this as an opportunity to get on the opposite side of a town lynch and make themselves look townish. Pandain is the other person I have in mind for his vote reversal thing on Day 2, but as I think about it the whole fake blue claim thing doesn't seem like something the SK would do. If he did try to shoot Sandro night 1 and was unsuccessful, it doesn't stand to reason that he would need to divert attention from himself--he would be suspect #12 or #13 in that particular investigation. It does make sense for scum to do that to try to start a bandwagon or to take that risk to be confirmed town. But as for SK, I guess it doesn't make sense when he wouldn't be remotely suspected for the action. | ||
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On March 07 2012 23:00 Bluelightz wrote: Okay guys im here, I'll explain a few things before my pitiful defense....... First, I posted in Kaller Game because it was easier :p and thinking up a defense isnt easy when you have to leave for school soon :3 Um.... what? The really stupid thing is, I've seen you post dumber things in games where you turned out to be town. I don't know what the hell your alignment is this game but at this point your just making things worse.... On March 07 2012 16:21 Paperscraps wrote: @Pandain: Why would I claim I shot Jackal if I was scum? There is no motivation as scum to do this. Unless I was tracked or something, in which I would have to cc of course. I really don't get your logic here. hmmm Q: If a vig takes a shot and the target is protected by a medic, does the vig get that shot back? That is, can they then hit another target? Just thinking about Sandro's claim and trying to determine whether or not an SK exists in this game. | ||
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TheToast
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On March 07 2012 23:48 Mr. Wiggles wrote: If a target is protected by a medic, and a vig shoots them, the medic protection absorbs the shot. They cannot shoot another target. Well crap. We're in WIFOM country again. So in all Night #2 didn't clear anything up at all, we're right back where we started. If Sandro was telling the truth, there is almost certainly an SK. If he was lying, there's no SK. I was hoping for something more difinitive after night 2 :/ I'm not sure at the moment where Paper stands (he has changed his focus pretty quickly to Adam), but I do know that if he is a vig he has the worst timing ever. On March 07 2012 17:31 Probulous wrote:
Simpler to just assume that there is no extra kill point until someone claims. Yes and no. If we have a medic who saved someone last night, it would probably be better they don't claim for the moment as it would probably just end up getting them killed Night 3. Plus since mafia could have a vig, right now a medic claim wouldn't help at all in determining whether there is an SK. If there is a real vet who got hit, then they should absolutely claim. A vet would be an unlikely target for mafia Night 3, and it would at least help us narrow down the options. Given that we have lost our watcher, losing a medic wouldn't be worth that information. The absense of a medic/vet claim also doesn't necessarily prove anything. As I mentioned before, SK could have decided not to submit a night kill at all in an attempt to convince us there is no SK. That seems unlikely given the odds against the SK, but then again that may be the very reason the SK decides to do it (welcome to WIFOM city). So unless there is a vet that got hit (which seems unlikely) we are exactly back at the start of Day 2 in terms of figuring out if there is an SK--all comes back to whether Sandro's claim was real or not. | ||
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TheToast
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On March 08 2012 03:09 Paperscraps wrote: Also everyone needs to look at TheToast's question very closely. I asked because I wanted to see if it was possible that vig (potentially you) could have taken a shot at Sandro night 1 as well as the shot on Jackle night 2. I wanted a clarification on the rule, as if vig gets their shot back you could claim that you took a shot at Sandro and claim that makes you town; or if you failed to claim one way or the other on that shot I would be looking into it a bit more. Either way it's completely irrelevant given that vig's only get one shot. (assuming you really are a vig) As I said before several times, I'm proceeding as though Sandro's claim was real. If it turns out he was lying we lose nothing (assuming we don't lynch anyone based on his claim) and if he was telling the truth it could lead us to the SK. | ||
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On March 08 2012 09:17 Snarfs wrote: Well, actually, if for some strange reason Adam flips town then I would consider it... But then we are getting low on townspeople. We're at 6-2-1 right now assuming an SK. If we mess this lynch up we could potentially be at a worst case of [b]3-2-1[b] if mafia and SK both kill a townie. I mean, this lynch is so important for town today. Where're the contributions from AKCT, Bluelightz, Pandain, etc.?? Ummm wait a minute here. Total number of mafia is hidden in this game. How is it you seem to know how many scum players there are in this game?? I suppose you could have guessed/reasoned from balance, but you didn't say that. You didn't even bother to share your reasoning as to why you think there were 3 scum to start off with. Why would you go out of the way to point out that you are assuming the existence of the SK but not to mention you are assuming numbers on Mafia? Explain please. | ||
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On March 08 2012 10:54 Snarfs wrote: @TheToast: Any objections to lynching Bluelightz? Objections? No. Am I convinced he's scum? Not entirely. Let me quote what I said before: As far as Bluelightz goes; lynching him is tricky business. Based on the game I played with him and the past games of his that I've looked through, he is such a bad town player that he is impossible to get a decent read off of. In NMM 1 I was pretty convinced through most of the game he was mafia just because his posting was so random and contained so much fluff. Turns out he was town, but I honestly think we would have been better off lynching him early on to eliminate him as a suspect and stop him from muddying the waters (which I believe I used as an argument for his lynching in that game). If the votes are there at the end of the day, I'll support his lynch but I seriously think he could flip either way. One of the things I used as evidence for his lynching in Nprmal Mini Mafia 1 was that his posting in one of the Newbie Mini games (where he was scum) was exactly the same as his posting in Normal Mini 1. He was actually scum in Newbie and town in Normal. I later realized that he posts the same crap no matter his alignment and is therefore almost impossible to get a read on. For what it's worth, I honestly think if we had lynched him day one in Normal Mini I like I wanted to, town could have won that game. He distracts from scum and focuses attention needlessly on himself with random accusations and completely pointless posts. Check some of his previous games and you will note that 50% of his posts are him telling people that he's going to sleep. Serves nothing other than to muddy the waters and make it harder to hunt scum. So do I think he's mafia? I have no fucking clue. Guy could be the SK and he would be posting the same. Would I object to lynching him? Absolutely not. He contributes nothing as a town player and really only hurts town in the long run. On a side note, Paper is looking townish to me. I'll elaborate further at the end of Day 3 when I can take a look at all his posts for the day.... | ||
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Where the hell is Pandain anyway? Last post March 07 2012 12:48. I'm starting to think there is a good case he is the SK. If we don't see any more posts from him Day 3 then I think there is a big FOS on him. And what happened to Paper? | ||
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On March 09 2012 05:14 Pandain wrote: hmmmm >.> | ||
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On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote: Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... I haven't forgotten, in fact I've brought up the possibility of a mafia vig like half a dozen times. Did you even read my posts about determining if there was an SK (and why it's not possible unless we can confirm sandro's claim)? Here's the deal, I've been reading through Paper's posts. I said before that he was leaning town in my opinion but now I'm not so sure. What I was initially looking at was his consistency: + Show Spoiler [lots o' quotes] + Working backwards chronologically: My top scum reads are TheToast, Jackal and Deconduo Jackal are all better lynches. I don't know if we should lynch Sandroba yet Jackal has posted no substance at all. His reaction to the Misder lynch was over done. Three people voted Misder: Deconduo, AKCT and Jackal. They all give me a scum vibe Jackal's filter takes 5 seconds to read Jackal - Has posted nothing of substance. A lot of people fosed Jackal at the end of the night. Jackal even posted right after me, so he was obviously around, but didn't post relevant material during the night. There's clearly a lot of consistancy in pushing Jackal here. Granted that doesn't prove he's town, the whole thing could be a part of a really good strategy to cover himself as the SK. But this seems unlikely, and I think one would be hard pressed to look at the evidence and come up with that conclusion. So from this viewpoint he's looking townish. But that doesn't explain away his terrible reads: I can see a bit of a team forming between Decon and Jackal right now. Now that we've seen Jackal flip, looking through some of these "reads" makes them look a lot like tunneling than actual analysis. Of all the people who've flipped, Paper at some point argued the opposite for: Palmar is playing weird this game so far. He might be scum. If Sandroba is mafia, then why lurk and post crap and be sure to get lynched. Does Sandroba just not care about the game? Maybe just a bored vanilla townie? Honestly I think Sandroba is SK that is claiming a fake hit *** Hmmmm, my gut tells me that Sandroba is vet *** followed by*** Inb4 people say I am scum trying to make myself look townie "if" Sandroba flips vet. ******The last two here are really interesting. I want to go back to something I said before. If the hit against Sandro was real, and it came from the SK: the SK would be likely to believe Sandro's vet claim. After all, the SK would know that Sandro got shot and didn't die, why wouldn't you believe the vet claim? And the SK would have a lot to gain here, by being the one to vote against Sandro (who they think is blue) they could potentially solidify themselves as town and potentially as someone with good anlysis and become relatively safe for the remainder of the game. Paper, Jackle, and AKCT were the only votes not on Sandro day 2.... To me, this radically shifts Paper's possible alignment. However this evidence swings greatly on the validity of Sandro's claim. I said before that we couldn't lynch anyone based only on that given the fact that Sandro was confirmed scum. So, for the moment, I am not comfortable supporting a lynch on Paper based on this. But consider this a strong FOS on him as the SK. | ||
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TheToast
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On March 09 2012 06:16 Pandain wrote: Before I go on, I want everyone to remember that this is the work of 24 hours of constant lurking, re reading, re-re reading, going through each filter again and again, rereading thread in entirety, and even night time pondering. I don't believe Paperscraps. I feel people are beliving he is town merely because he claimed vig. Everyone seems to have forgotten this role.... This doesn't mean its scum, but it does make us remember that there are now three possibilities for Paperscraps to be: 1. Serial killer. 2. Mafia Vigilante 3. Vigilante Him claiming vigilante in no way makes him town. Rather, we must analyze two things in determining his alignment: 1. His reasoning/motivation behind shooting Jackal 2. His posts/votes this game(Normal Analysis) I'll be posting more once I make sense of everything..... Pandain, we haven't heard so much as a peep out of you for like 30 hours, and you come back with this fluff-filled post? Why was it necessary to quote the OP? Why was it necessary to quote THE WHOLE description of the Mafia Vig? Like we can't figure out what the Mafia Vig might be? And what's with that last line (the one I bolded)? In 36 hours and you need more time to "make sense" of things? What the hell have you been doing? And this post contains not one BUT TWO pointless lists? This reeks of scummy fluff. | ||
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TheToast
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Anyway, for Day 3 I think Pandain and Adam are the best votes right now. While there is a good case against Paper, it really does hinge on Sandro's claim. While I think his claim was real (Probulous made a good point somewhere about this) lynching someone based on it just risks too much in terms of walking into a scum trap. If someone sees something I missed that adds to the evidence then I would say he should be lynched but right now the evidence is so circumstancial.... Bluelightz is.... idk wtf we should do with him. As I said getting a read on him is almost impossible. And if he is town and we lynch him, that't not necessarily bad. He doesn't contribute at all. I just don't know where that fits in terms of lynch priority. There is a decent case for Adam being scum, but a Bluelightz lynch could help town regardless of his alignment (and we could be lucky and he's the SK). And Pandain is shady as fuck. So I'm a bit lost on what the priority should be right now  Thoughts? | ||
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On March 09 2012 07:06 Probulous wrote: Because the shot could have been blocked by a mafia medic (turned out to be true, if there was a shot). You're making big assumptions here Toast. We have no concrete proof there is a SK. It all rests on whether sandro's claim was a fake claim or not and whether Paper is a Vig (mafia or town). I think Paper is more likely to flip town than mafia or SK. He spotlighted Jackal from the start and then doubted himself on decon. It makes sense that his second choice shot would be Jackal. Now yes this could be a long term mafia play, but we can't know that until we can confirm the existence of a SK. To the bolded part: I think if the SK shot someone, they didn't die, and then claimed vet it would make sense to believe them. It's would be a gamble but one that could pay off. If Sandro's claim is true and he got shot, I think there is really good evidence against Paper. The way he backed off of Sandro Day 2 when it was clear he was going to be lynched (and that reasoning too, "I have a gut feeling" what kind of reasoning is that?) just seemed strange. Either way I agree with the fact that the SK's existance and Paper's alighment hinges entirely on Sandro's claim. This is exactly why I said I'm not supporting his lynch Day 3. (Though you were arguing earlier that it was a believable claim) We can't take the risk given what we know now for sure about Sandro. Anyway re-read my post, I'm essentially arguing the same thing as you on Paper. I listed all those time he called out Jackal as well (in the spoiler). Without considering Sandro's claim he looks townish. But I said before, I'm going to proceed as though Sandro's claim was real but not use it as the only evidence to lynch someone. That's the situation right here, so FOS: Paper but no vote until I can come up with some other evidence... Back to the other issue, what do you think should be the D3 lynch priority? | ||
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Probulous and Snarfs have both made decent cases against Adam. I still have a big FOS on Pandain and Paper, but it looks like for the moment those those two guys aren't going anywhere. (Day 4 we need to take a really really close look at both of them, at least one is scum and I think there is a good chance the other is the SK...) As for Adam, while Probulous and Snarfs have brought up a lot of good points, for me the most interesting thing was your Day one attacks on Palmar. You voted Palmar, along with Paper, for lynching Day 1. Then Jackal breaks with everyone else and votes you for lynching day 2. Then Paper kills Jackal Night 2. Convenient, no? Something is off here. | ||
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My vote, you didn't count it lol. | ||
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On March 09 2012 13:20 Snarfs wrote: Pandain, why are you so sure deconduo is town? I'm wondering about Pandain's comments myself.. Decondou's posting all game has been reletively solid and townish, so why has Pandain suddenly focused on him now? Look at these quotes from Pandain: Decondou I think your town and value your opinion, what do you make of paperscraps claim? If we have a medic, protect decondou or me. If me and decondou were scum we would've won by now. This last one is the most bizzaire. I would point out that with 2kp potential per day/night (lynch and kill) and assuming between 10-12 non mafia, it's not even theoretically possible for scum to have won by now. Either way, all these quotes are really over the top. It almost seems like Pandain is trying really hard to set him self up for something, whether that's a blue claim (a fake blue claim) or maybe a vig hit? He was really adament in arguing that Paper was the mafia vig and not town. What if Pandain is really the mafia vig and is trying to set himself up for a blue claim? (again) Idk, I can't really make sense of all this. But either way Pandain's posting is shady as hell. On March 09 2012 20:54 Bluelightz wrote: I don't even know what to post right now but im gonna post also @AKCT wut. So you are just admitting now that you plan to spam the thread with pointless posts. .... excuse me for a moment... *Slams head on desk* *Slams head on desk* *Slams head on desk* | ||
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On March 10 2012 12:11 Probulous wrote: Wow  I guess this confirms the existence of a SK then. Just wondering, what makes you so sure there isn't a Mafia vig? That is still a distinct possibility.... I'll still go with what I said before and say we need to proceed as if there is an SK, but there is still the chance there is not. Unless you know something specific.... On March 10 2012 12:23 Probulous wrote: Decon that epic reads post from Snarfs is why I think he is town. It is pretty logical though I disagree on a few points most importantly it is transparent. Given there is a SK the sandroba hit was probably real. Paperscraps' vig claim was real which means the SK must have doublestacked on either Palmar or Jackal. We are at 6/14 with two scum (probably based on balance, is this likely) and a SK. If we miss-lynch today we lose. Half the players left should be on your suspicious list. I think Snarfs is town, I am town. That leaves three lynch targets in Decon, Bluelightz, Toast and AKCT. Filters how we come. Again, what makes you so sure SK double stakced on Jakal or Palmar? If the SK exists, they could have chosen to not submit a night hit. Strange that you would jump to conclusions.... Given that the SK would be pushing scum for lynching all game, it would be really easy to appear townish..... FOS: Probulous Re-read this man's filter people..... | ||
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And three posts across 8 minutes? I love how you start out all calm about it then get more verbose in each successive post. Not confirmed anything yet, but this is enough to make me suspicious... Surprisingly, no one has asked the really crucial question here; why did Paperscraps get killed last night? A vig who has used his shot is not threat to scum, and if anything he was pulling a lot of attention away from the SK. So why was he killed? | ||
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On March 12 2012 00:09 Bluelightz wrote: ...... WHERE IS EVERYONE? Mafia are just lurking their heart away You are aware that there are only 6 people left in this game right? And you of all people should not be chastising people for lurking. Posting "going to sleep now" or "going to school now" over and over and over DOES NOT count as contributing.  Time to do something I should have done a long time ago: ##Vote: Bluelightz I don't even think I need any reasons, every single post on your filter is reason enough. | ||
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Why is my insistence that there isn't an SK strange? There is still the very real possibility that there is a mafia vig who hit last night. The thing that's strange is your insistence that there IS and SK. The only way you could know that is if you WERE the SK or if you had some inside information that sandro's claim was real. So tell me, which is it? I didn't FOS you for the hell of it. If we have an SK we need to figure out who it is and they need to die tomorrow. No one besides Adam has put any pressure on you all game, that's simply not healthy for town to have a completely 100% confirmed town player. All to easy for SK to hide amongst town. And after I call you out, suddenly I'm scum and you use that as evidence against me? I'm only becoming more suspicious of you Probulous... | ||
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##Vote: Probulous  | ||
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 Vet or Medic Snarfs? Do you want to die tonight? | ||
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On March 12 2012 12:46 Snarfs wrote: I don't know. Do you expect me to pretend to be one of the two subtly so that it seems like I'm trying to convince you that I am that role, or do you expect me to expect you to expect that and so pretend to not be? Just let me know and I'll oblige. This seems antagonistic. Maybe you want us to shoot you? As vet that would be your best bet. Of course even if you were a medic and we shoot one of the others, we have a 50-50 chance of winning. If your vet it's a 100% chance of winning. Do you have any thoughts on that snarfies? Oh and Bluelightz, I'm curious, have you ever won a game as town? Like seriously, I think there's such a thing as the Bluelightz curse. Any town unlucky enough to get Bluelightz on their side loses the game. What do you think? Nice ring to it right? The curse of the Bluelightz that sounds good too. Seriously, how fail are you? I don't expect you to respond since the only things you post about are when you are going to school or work like this is flippin' twitter. Can't forget the occasional completely random person that you call out as scum. It's true that you will eventually land on scum, only after lynching the entire town. Way to go buddy.. Actually the whole lot of you are pretty fail. Didn't you all wonder why you are the ones left alive? Snarfs I don't think you had a single good read this whole game. Except for Sandro, but he pretty much put in zero effort this game; that's why we had him killed. And lol how easily all of you bought that "Calling it now Sandro and Pandain scum team" shenanigans. How obvious was that lol? There's a reason why we lynched Palmar when we did and left the rest of you alive, he was the only one making any sense. Snarfies lol at your support of Adam. There was not one good shred of evidence against him. And you led Probulous lead your right into that. HA! And LOL at the Paper thing. He was like the most confirmed town this whole game, and you guys were all FOSing him. | ||
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On March 13 2012 11:22 Bluelightz wrote: IM A VET TOAST MWAHAHAHAHAAHAHA Don't worry, snarfs the medic is dying tonight anyway. He is clearly blue. I was the one who pegged Probulous when the rest of you were screaming he was confirmed town. I was right then, I'm right now. Buh-bye snarfies. | ||
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Me wooden leg!! | ||
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It's true | ||
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Anyways, GG. | ||
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On March 13 2012 12:30 deconduo wrote: Finally, something good happened in this long and terrible day. Well played guys, its always nice to have a game that goes right down to the wire. Now I can get some fucking sleep Well played me pirate maties! I too really need to get going, be back later I have a ton to do. Be back later for more post game. | ||
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TheToast
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On March 13 2012 12:32 Snarfs wrote: No hard feelings Toast, I probably took it a bit more personally than I should have but I had just gotten off 4 hours of work on my birthday on a Sunday so I was in a bad mood Yeah sorry, it's hard to tell sometimes where the line is and I evidently took it too far. You can check the Mafia QT, it was part of a strategy I was working on. Just poorly implemented. Glad to hear were good. On March 13 2012 12:31 Probulous wrote: You're an asshole. I don't care if that is strategy, it is belittling and petty and doesn't belong in any game I wish to play in. I'm not the only one who got warned this game. I'll just leave it at that. | ||
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On March 13 2012 12:38 Probulous wrote: I got warned for absent mindedly poking at you out of the game, you got warned for shitting on players. So no they are not the same. It give me the shits when players degrade others but hey it is all part of your stategy, whatever man. I've apologized, I've explained myself. There's literally nothing left I can do. It wasn't personal, Snarfs play was actually pretty decent and Bluelightz isn't a horrible human being. I clearly lost my sense of perspective when I made that post and that's all there really is to it. If anyone else would like to discuss this feel free to PM me, otherwise I won't be discussing it any further here. | ||
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On March 13 2012 12:51 Mattchew wrote: if snarfs had protected AKCT town woulda remained at 3:2 and coulda lynched scum and won Decon and I had a backup plan. If AKCT was medic protected we were going to quickly post our votes on Snarf. If AKCT didn't show up we would have voted Snarfs first and we would have won. Anyway, really leaving now, see you all tomorrow. | ||
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Day1 Day 1 was weird. Sandro's posting was strange and out of place from the start, and Palmar being Palmar picked up on that quickly enough. I was a bit impressed with how quickly Pandain picked up on my scummy-ness, I was actually actively trying to mirror my early game posting in NMM1, so I'm not sure if Pandain somehow picked up on something or just got lucky. Either way, I realized pretty quickly after Pandain's first post against me that he had made a critical mistake in calling me out so early; fact was, even though he was right, he had basically no evidence against me. I figured I could hit back with that and if I did so agressively and long enough I could make his argument look rediculous. Meanwhile Sandro was screwing us over. And I was seriously starting to get pissed off. He was pretty much putting in zero effort and every one of his posts screamed scum. He later admitted (day2) in the Mafia QT that he had some IRL stuff and had requested a replacement. But he really should have done so much sooner. I realized if scum were to have any chance to win the game we needed to distance ourselves from sandro, thus the whole sandro is SK thing. I don't know why he voted me for a lynch, but it actually helped me out in the end. I have no idea how Misder got lynched over sandro, there was only one scum on Misder. He also looked completely like the typical hapless townie that goes down day1. I would have posted a case against Pandain sooner, but did actually have IRL internet problems. I was still under the impression that sandro might actually start trying this game. Night 1 RG was an easy kill to decide. I figured there was probably only a good 50/50 chance that he was blue, his claim could be fake or he could've been claiming blue thinking we would assume it was fake. Either way, he was pretty much confirmed town at that point and the added chance of killing blue made him the most logical target. Day2 My inactivity again, was really due to a Civ V game that consumed my weekend. Either way, Probulous was on the right track. I was really getting concerned, when Mafia has an underperforming player they have to defend, that player flipping can pretty much lead to the end of the game. I realized if Sandro flipped I was going to look scummy as hell for avoiding his vote day 1 (especially after arguing he could be the SK). I also realized if I suddendly decided to vote Sandro, I was going to invalidate the ENTIRE argument I used to defend myself against Probulous, that scum should be lynched before SK. I knew Sandro had to die but there was no way for me to get on the right side of the lynch without revealing my alignment. Luckily enough, Pandain provided my way out of this. When I saw his akward defense of sandro I realized that was my one chance out. I had an excuse to call sandro scum (since I was already arguing for Pandain's scumminess), an excuse to be on the right side of the lynch, link Pandain with someone who was about to flip scum, and end up coming out looking really townish. IMO Pandain screwed up here big time by giving me this opening. And all of you probably should have suspected something when I changed my opinion on someone like *right* after it became clear that they were getting lynched. Either way, scum got rid of a really weak player and both deco and I came out looking town. And there were three people on the wrong side of the lynch who now suddenly were looking really suspicious. Pretty much was gg right here. Night 2 I went back and forth WIFOMing away over who the night 2 kill should be. I was thinking Snarfs or Probulous at first, as they were the most confirmed townies and their deaths could put pressure on Paperscraps/Adam. Decon left the decision up to me and I eventually decided on Palmar. At the time I didn't suspect a medic was on him as there had been some suspicion against him by town (I was thinking for sure medic would be on Probulous). Palmar was my choice simply because I thought it was our best chance to kill him. Palmar is one of the best scum hunters on TL, and at the time he really hadn't laid out any of his reads or suspicions other than Sandro. I saw it as an opportunity to kill him without casting any suspicion back on Decon and I, probably the only one we would get. The double stack Probulous kill was just good luck. Palmar flipping watcher was just added benefit. Day 3 Ahh Paperscraps shot on Jackal. Jackal had been on his radar all game long, and I'm guessing the fact that Jackal was on the wrong side of the lynch just confirmed it in his mind. Decon and I were also on his list, so I guess we got a bit lucky here (of course if he shot me I was safe due to medic). But then who expect scum to actively try to get one of their members lynched? Either way, the ensuing FOS-ing of Paper was a little crazy. If you actually looked at his filter up to that point, he was actually really consistant and really logical. Should have been #2 or #3 confirmed town. Either way the pressure on him I guess forced him to change his scum-list and from there on Decon and I were pretty much set from there on. Adam lynch was ezpz, thanks Probulous for that one. Again more fallout of the Sandro lynch. Night 3 As I said at this point Decon and I were pretty much set. I did want to kill Probulous but it seemed likely that a medic could be on him. Snarfs and Probulous were just about the only confirmed town left. Paper, bluelightz, and Pandain were all getting FOS-ed so really this hit wasn't that important. It really came down to Paper and Pandain, both had previously been on the right track (both had actually called out 2/3s of the scum team previously) and were therefore the most dangerous. Paper was a vig who used his shot, and so was now a vanilla townie essentially. So we went Pandain in the hopes he might flip blue. Day 4 Paper's death really made it pretty obvious we were going to win if we could find the SK. Either way, Bluelightz was unintentionally running interferrence for us so we knew we were pretty safe. Probulous, This exchange is what outed you as SK to me. Three replies in a row to one post, each more frantic than the last. Bluelightz finally had a good read, and when I saw that vote I realized we had an awesome chance. We kill the SK (and most confirmed town ironically) and AKCT get's modkilled it was gg. As far as ACKT's absence making this unfair, that's completely rediculous. Town was about to lynch Bluelightz, and we knew who the SK was, Probulous you would've died in the night. Unless you were planning on hitting Decon, you were still going to lose. Frankly, Wiggle's decision not to modkill AKCT actually made things pretty even. Night 4 Lots of WIFOM-ing. Decon was sure snarfs was vet, after reading through his posts I pegged him as medic. There were several times when he speculated as to the existance of a vet (his read on RG was vet, there was one other somewhere too). It seemed highly unlikely to me that someone would setup something that subtly that far back in the game, especially for a new player. Eventually I realized that if Snarfs was medic, he would almost certainly be on Bluelightz and thus the AKCT kill was decided. It was a bit WIFOM-y still, but I'm guessing Snarfs was thrown off when I correctly pegged him as the medic. Either way, GG. -edit: sp | ||
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On March 15 2012 07:06 Probulous wrote: The point being that if the same thing had gone down with AKCT being around I could possibly have swung the vote. You guy had outed yourselves, I never got the chance to even try because he didn't vote. Your responsibility in these games is to vote and there should be accountability for them. My options were essentially whittled down to convincing an absent bluelightz to switch which is something I might not have had to do if AKCT was around. Letting him off scott free would be unfair in my opinion. I would not have died that night, you forget I was a veteran as well. You guys had outed yourselves so I knew that decon had to be the medic because you were just so out there compared to him. Now you can say you wouldn't have done this if he wasn't here but then I would not have been lynched. As for Bluelightz destroying you, I'd like to see it. It would change a lot of things in my mind. There's no guarantee AKCT would've voted for Bluelightz. And we outed ourselves with three minutes to go on Day 4, there was not much chance for town to respond. We were counting on that. Whether AKCT could have changed the outcome of the game is impossible to say. If you still have a problem with it, you should take it up with Flamewheel or GMarshal. Either way Wiggles was put in a difficult position and I think he made the right choice not to mod kill him. Honestly Probulous, I think you're being a bit of a sore loser. Scum team had a teammate that put in zero effort this game. His posts scream scum, he made no attempt to defend himself, and we were left with the prospect of losing this game because of it. He may not have gone completely inactive but it was close; he had like 5 total posts in the Mafia QT. Bottom line is people going inactive and getting modkilled are part of this game, you need to plan for it and be able to react to it in turn. You're right, I did forget that you had veteran status and maybe that would have helped. But the reality is you didn't have a single good read on scum the whole game. (sandro doesn't really count, he wasn't trying and we pushed his lynch) You were also about to kill another townie and the only chance you had to win was if you shot decon. From what you were posting it didn't seem terribly likely to me that would happen. It's not like you played the game of your life and had it snatched away from you in some crazy upset. You had a major slip up that clearly outed yourself and allowed us to out maneuver you, that's what I see as the core of this game. And as for the Bluelightz thing.... no comment. | ||
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On March 15 2012 09:47 Pandain wrote: Btw I don't think you were ever really close to lynching me. I just didn't defend myself because I don't need to(I will if pressured.) I don't know if I've ever played a game where I got lynched(unless rolechecked), and I've played like 10. I think we could have, go back and read day 2 night 2, I think we managed to get some good suspicion going on you. Whether you could've defended yourself is another question, but your posting seemed strange in the situation. But part of the reason we killed you night 3 was because we knew you were potentially dangerous. And the buddying with decon made it seem like you had an idea of his alignment. | ||
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On March 15 2012 10:03 Probulous wrote: Question for you, who did you think the SK was before that? I was sure you guys knew who I was from really early game. I was just banking on you WIFOMing a medic save and me having an extra life. We actually bounced around between a few people. Decon had you pegged as a possible SK early on, but our attention shifted to Paper briefly then AKCT. | ||
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