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Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia VII - Page 30

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EchelonTee
Profile Joined February 2011
United States5245 Posts
February 20 2012 06:41 GMT
#581
On February 20 2012 15:01 GMarshal wrote:
rgTheSchworz replaces Blae000


running low on replacements :o TheSchworz has some games on him, should be able to make a read.

sleeping. remember gaiz, pls post your vote before 16 PST, Monday, a day early.
aka "neophyte". learn lots. dont judge. laugh for no reason. be nice. seek happiness. -D[9]
DoYouHas
Profile Joined November 2008
United States1140 Posts
February 20 2012 08:16 GMT
#582
I want to lynch MidnightGladius,

I am going to start at the beginning, and this is going to be long. I will be repeating things from the cases ET and jaj22 posted.
On February 17 2012 10:09 MidnightGladius wrote:
It is such a pleasure to start another game: let the paranoia flow, and the productivity falter!

Notes on the setup: Now that there are 15 starting players, the mafia:innocent ratio is rather uncommon, at 4:11, favoring the mafia, compared to 3 in Normal Mini Mafia I, 3 in Newbie Mini Mafia II, and 3 in Newbie Mini Mafia I. On the last occasion that the town faced unfavorable odds, Newbie Mini Mafia III, the lack of mafia power roles and relative abundance of innocent power roles helped to balance the setup, and I think that it will be the same here. Considering that the town gets a minimum of one extra mislynch compared to the standard setup, I think that the extra information will be especially helpful. Easy enough, right? No need for lurking, bashing, or spamming; I'm hoping for a great game.

Trust in Bayes!


This is from his first post. It was something that I lightly challenged him on at the time, and it has never sat right with me. His point is that the balancing of roles is going to be similar in a 4/11 setup to a 4/9 setup. Midnight wants to point out that the role balance likely changed in favor of the town since we have 11 members instead of 12, just like the role balance changed into the favor of town in the 4/9 setup of NMM3. I have 3 issues here, the first is that Midnight fails to ever follow up on this and actually speculate as to the degree of balance change between 4/11 and 4/12, which would be the only thing that gives his initial post any worth. The second is that he starts the game speculating about blues, which is wifom and unhelpful, a town perspective is just to let the blues do their jobs. At least during day1 before the blues have even become relevant. The third is that he starts this post stating that we are facing unfavorable odds, then spends the whole back half of it setting us to our ease, pointing out that we probably have lots of blue roles, and that we have an extra mislynch.
On February 17 2012 10:43 MidnightGladius wrote:
I've been told by veterans here that it's possible to use behavioral analysis to lynch mafia on the first day, but I honestly am not sure how to go about it. Hopefully, activity will be high enough to render this issue moot, but I have no regrets with lynching lurkers.

He is lowering our expectations towards him as a person who has played before.
On February 17 2012 13:23 MidnightGladius wrote:
EchelonTee, you shouldn't be so upset

You've had some experience, so I expect better pro-town play from you. And I will be watching.

And raising our expectations on ET. Then there is this section:
On February 17 2012 13:23 MidnightGladius wrote:
If you claim that your "he's posting the scum QT" threat was a joke, then you're expecting us to let you get away with saying anything you want, as long as you say that you're not being serious. Secondly, you claim that you never accused sl00sh of being mafia, but there's no denying that he would be posting in the scum QT if and only if he were truly mafia. You're not looking too friendly at the moment, and I have to wonder what might be on your mind.

Nowhere did ET claim that his threat was a joke, the only post of his that could be twisted that direction is this one:
On February 17 2012 12:15 EchelonTee wrote:
did you feel threatened? :D

Which I never saw as a joke response, and it definitely doesn't claim that his original pressure was a joke. And since he never claimed his pressure was a joke, it is quite the leap to say, "you're expecting us to let you get away with saying anything you want, as long as you say that you're not being serious." Also, ET never did accuse slOosh of being mafia, he drew slOosh into posting through the use of a threat. That's all.

I have become fairly convinced that Midnight used the same play on ET and gumshoe, which is to breadcrumb early suspicion, and then wait for an opportunity to jump on them. With gumshoe it was the posting of bad statistical analysis. With ET it was voting Midnight and then leaving without posting a case of his own.
On February 18 2012 04:38 MidnightGladius wrote:
As to who we lynch, I say that we put pressure on lurkers and threaten them with a lynch if they don't contribute. It establishes a basic precedent on the quality of content that we expect out of certain players, and then we can take their future posts and make some contrasts. The common argument against lynching a lurker is that mafia will only have to pretend to contribute, or stay just above the least active players. I say that that's fully acceptable, as both of those behaviors will be red flags in the days to come, especially if the town keeps up and stays consistent with activity levels.

With that said, I'm going to put my vote on MannerKiss. He has done nothing for us.

MannerKiss, here's your opportunity to show us that you have an interest in helping us win this game. Who is your #1 target so far?

##Vote: MannerKiss

This post bothers me because his lead up into his pressure vote makes his vote practically worthless. First he explains that the vote is a pressure vote, easily removed. Then he lays out a road map for how MannerKiss can remove the vote. This is not inherently scummy, but it is at least troubling because it is an incredibly weak way of pressuring a lurker.

Then we get to his vote change to gumshoe, I agree with ET here that it is strange that he would invoke FakePromise, a townie, while making his case against gumshoe. When you bring up someone from a past game like that, you are invoking all of their play from that game unless otherwise specified. The 2 breadcrumb posts of Midnight's on gumshoe before this focused on providing reasons against gumshoe, followed by an opinion that he was town in spite of the bad play. Then at the start of his case for switching his vote, he invokes another player who was townie in spite of his bad play. I think that is at least a little strange.

Ok, now we get into his responses to the cases against him I already did a writeup of this here. The only thing I would like to add to that case is this point. If you think a case against you is invalid and/or full of holes, why is it that instead of taking 1 post to poke holes in jaj22's case or even just outright disprove it you embarked an a short campaign of arrogantly belittling the case, its writer, and its supporter? Attack the points, not the posters.

I have a lot to talk about in this next post.
On February 18 2012 12:32 MidnightGladius wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 18 2012 10:37 Janaan wrote:
Midnight, what are YOUR reads right now? You put forward MannerKiss as a pressure vote, then change to Gumshoe one post later because you didn't like his statistical analysis. Do you have any other suspicions? Any decent town reads?


MannerKiss is actively lurking and needs to step it up or die. Some of the other lurkers are active candidates for modkills at this point, but he's not, and that means that we should pressure him.

However, gumshoe's posting is actively hurting us, and while I'm not certain that he's mafia, I'm growing increasingly convinced. I would consider both of these votes to be pressure votes. I'd honestly rather pressure gumshoe to quiet down and concentrate than pressure MannerKiss to speak up :D

My strongest other scumread lies on EchelonTee, for the reasons I mentioned earlier: His sequence of

1) being glad that there was activity
2) accusing me without a case
3) saying he would provide a case
4) telling DYH to support my lynch
5) not presenting a case
6) leaving the discussion

seemed really suspicious to me.


First of all, Janaan asked for Midnights reads, to which he only reiterated things he had previously said, MannerKiss, gumshoe, and ET. Nothing new.

I find the bolded section extremely suspicious. He starts by saying that he thinks gum is actively hurting the town and is growing increasingly convinced that gum is scum. This is where his explanation of his voting does not mesh with his explanation of his suspicions. When he originally voted for gumshoe his explanation was that the level of anti-town activity from gumshoe was such that he could only assume malicious intent. That sounds as much like a vote for scum as a pressure vote to me. Then in this post he points out that if anything, gumshoe has only gotten worse in his eyes.

Here is the catch, "I'd honestly rather pressure gumshoe to quiet down and concentrate". He sees gumshoe as malicious and scummy, he thinks that his case towards that end is only getting stronger as gumshoe continues to post. Why does he want gumshoe to quiet down? Why would he be advising gumshoe to concentrate? If you are becoming more comfortable with your scum read on gumshoe as he posts, why tell him to stop posting? He is making your job easier.

In fact, the reasoning that you are expressing is very similar to my own. + Show Spoiler +
On February 20 2012 02:32 DoYouHas wrote:
The one point I will explain right now is how I have been acting towards gumshoe. I have been working under the assumption that he is town. So instead of using the flaws in his posts to build a case against him. I have been pointing them out with why they are wrong in hopes that he will learn quickly and become an asset to the town. This is something that I did multiple times to Simberto and slOosh in NMM3. It isn't scummy by any stretch of the imagination.
The difference being that I am working under the assumption that gumshoe is town. At this point, you are expressing the opposite view, so why are you acting the same?

As for how Midnight handled ET.

His 6 point case:
#1 is something you did as well + Show Spoiler +
On February 18 2012 09:51 MidnightGladius wrote:
Finally some excitement!
#2 He pretty clearly was agreeing with jaj22's case. #3 #4 and #5 are all reasonable, though #3 and #5 are 1 point. #6 is blaming him for an absence that he told you was coming.

He states that gumshoe is a pressure vote and that his strongest scum read is on ET, but his vote does not follow his strongest scum read until after zelblade, trackd00r, and blae000 all voted for him first.

The rush to get a majority created chaos that makes it hard to find scummy bandwagons, but this post of Midnight's
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 19 2012 08:33 MidnightGladius wrote:
People who seem to be active right now:

1. Me
2. zelblade
3. jaj22
4. Mattchew
5. Janaan
6. gumshoe

We need to make a decision. The town gains nothing from a no lynch. We have 30 minutes.

Looking at the voting list, there's no way we can get a majority on anyone by EchelonTee or me. Make up your minds, or else Day 2 is going to be a mess.

Strikes me as very similar to sinani's(scum) in NormalMM1.
+ Show Spoiler +
On February 04 2012 09:15 sinani206 wrote:
OK, I don't think you people understand.
Get your fucking votes on Sentinel or Timeasis.
We can't risk a NL on Day 1.
In case you don't understand,
Show nested quote +
This game uses Extended Majority Lynch. That is, at the deadline the player with a majority of votes is lynched (majority = 1/2 the remaining players, rounded down + 1), if no one has a majority then no lynch will take place.


THIS MEANS YOU:
Bluelightz
Vilonis
TheToast
BaronFel
mderg


Also @prplhz:
lol



##Vote: MidnightGladius
Guts? Determination? $5?
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
February 20 2012 09:14 GMT
#583
Holy shit the night post.

GG jaj, gl next game, T_T.

Um, ok.
At first I wanna say that I'm sold on DYH being scummy. I was already suspicious of him as I stated.
The stronger point of this as Sloosh also stated after me, is that DYH made a list.
And here's his slip.

On February 19 2012 04:57 DoYouHas wrote:
TKHawkins: Not much to say here. I dislike his first post as it was just a conglomerate of posts others made before with a poor assumption about scum tagged on (an assumption that would exclude TKHawkins from the pool of possible scum of course). Then, in his last post he started following the format of listing everyone with basic reads on them. THIS NEEDS TO STOP. Posting lists is not nearly as helpful as posting thoughtful analysis on a few people. If posting lists becomes standard then we are giving scum an easy way of making long posts that stay shallow.


How can you argue with Hawkins on this exact point when you made a list yourself?
And it was a list BASED ON GUM's defense for christs sake.

You asked yourself why noone took seriously your long post about gum(the attention it drew was almost zero).
Do you even need to ask?
That's corresponding with my initial view of you which I posted when gumshoe asked me about you.

Another thing is that now that I had time to read and analyze some more, I find your case against sloosh extremely weak.
Here's why.

This was the first time you mention sloosh. It's interesting to see in what manner you did so,

On February 17 2012 10:06 DoYouHas wrote:
Alright, let's get this going. We need an active town this game. I'm expecting a lot from you sl0osh.


You are obviously counting heavily on meta.
Now that's not bad in itself ofcourse, but I checked out the game were you, sloosh and Midnight all participated in.
The results were shocking to me.

Sloosh asked for some clarifying advises from the veterans after the game was over. Here is his post

On February 10 2012 11:22 slOosh wrote:
It seems that the game was won mostly through help of blue roles in confirming ppl for late game rather than strong analysis.

People in Obs QT said my case against Zarepath was weak / confirmation bias, and I think besides MidnightGladius' vig shot
and Adams hunches on Chocolate, as a town we didn't ever rally around a good analysis case.

Could you help point out posts which tipped off people as mafia? Or is this more an overall feel in which each post adds to the case rather than one solid post upon which you can lynch mafia?

Also, how can you differentiate between timidity due to being new to the game and timidity due to being mafia?


He seem confused and seeks help from experienced players.
This was Qatol's answer(you might know him as the writer of many mafia guides).

On February 17 2012 12:43 Qatol wrote:

I agree that you didn't really rally around a good analysis case all game. I felt the zarepath lynch was lucky, and the rest came down to good blue play. MidnightGladius caught balt11t not contributing (which was a solid read), and chocolate and bromancipate were found mathematically.




My point should be fairly obvious to all of you now.
Why did your post which was based on META was directed towards sloosh and not midnight?
You have no reasons whatsoever to believe that sloosh is a better player than midnight.

Then you attacked sloosh out of nowhere.

On February 18 2012 04:19 DoYouHas wrote:
I think it is about time we start talking about who to lynch today. With the scheduling problems mentioned by a few people, I don't think we can wait too much longer.

My current list of people I'm consdering voting for is sl0osh and MannerKiss

sl0osh, he overreacted badly to a perfectly fine way of calling him out. Everything in his exchange was just an extended version of OMGUS (attacking the person who attacked you only because he attacked you).




If sloosh is town, that's bad play, you know why? Cause you are right in these points, he did overreact and he did OMGUS.
And that doesn't fit with your view of sloosh being a better player than midnight.
And all that with Qatol having provided enough validity NOT to do so.

The only explanation for this mess is the following

• You aknowledged sloosh as a weak player, someone you can manipulate, someone you can build a case or defend yourself from, easy.
• You tried to give him credit, so that we all hold him on higher regard than we should be.
• You waited until he made a slip.(the overreaction and omgus part)
•You made a jump on him, just to start a bus against him and gain credit as a towny.

That seems suspicious ofc, but it's not condemning. I knew so myself.
Until I read that little gem in your filter after your case against sloosh has been made

On February 18 2012 06:30 DoYouHas wrote:
My logic is that sl0osh is a decent to good player of mafia. As such I believe it is scummy for sl0osh to have ignored obvious reasoning and launched into OMGUS. It is that simple. I don't believe the quality of player that sl0osh is would have reacted in the way that sl0osh did as a townie.


Two slips happen there.
The first is obvious with the evidence I have provided so far, you shouldn't consider sloosh such a good player in mafia.
The second is that it's extremely biased and weak reasoned. You say that your logic is based on him being a good player?
That logic is unfounded and WIFOM.
If that applied then veteran games would be a breeze with players having played a million games between them.

But ofcourse you wouldn't want to actually lynch him and expose his towny nature, would you? At least not in the first day.
As I expected you did exactly that.

On February 18 2012 07:39 DoYouHas wrote:
I am dropping my case on sl0osh for now for 2 reasons.

1. His explanation that I bolded fits and is reasonable.

2. Other cases have been presented that are stronger than mine and I want to free both sl0osh and myself up to be constructive in that area.


So, some other cases stronger than yours popped up? What a surprise.
Ofc you don't wanna discredit yourself by killing a towny so fast.


After some time passed you are onto your favorite boy toy again, sloosh.
I can't give any reasons for this atm, are we onto one of your teammates and you wanna divert us?
Are you that sure that you can make a case but pull out of it just like you did last time?
I can't say, so this is just simple food for thought.

My case has one weak point atm. I did not account for sloosh being a scum as well.
And I did not, cause I do not read him as as such.
I'd like some opinions on that.

My vote atm goes to DYH.

vote##: DoYouHas

On another note, people don't panic please. And stop making these lists. We need solid stuff. Not fluff.
Also if you are gonna spend 1 hour filtering only to say that you find x and y to be town, then pls do something else.
We need opinions on scum not on town.
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
February 20 2012 09:20 GMT
#584
We posted at the same time.
Haven't read your post yet but I just wanna say, would I make a good cop or what?
Just as I predicted you pulled out from the sloosh case for the 2nd time.


Anyway gonna read your case on Midnight now.
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
February 20 2012 10:37 GMT
#585
Right I just got back from school and have caught up on the thread. I am still suspisious about Mattchew. His posts are mostly (infact all) short, and devoid of content. Really want him to post more. Im not going to push for his lynch today though as as slOosh says - we need to find mafia one at a time. As such, I will be giving my opinion on the main lynch candidate presented today - DoYouHas.

I might have stated that my scum read on him was getting weaker during the night phase as I thought that his second response towards sloosh's case seemed pretty good. However, rereading through it and reading the new developments, I agree that his responses do seem weak and arent really adressing the main points. His vote onto sloosh is still really wierd to me, and that town list which he has constantly asked people to not post is wierd as well. He also tries to analyze the cause of jaj's death - WIFOM at its finest. There are a myraid of reasons for someone getting hit by mafia. The way he goes about it seems like he is using it as an excuse to push midnight. How would he know that mafia hit jaj to "save" midnight from jaj's pushes? It could easily be the other way around. I really dont like how he is using this. Oh, and not to mention that he tries to make sloosh doubt his own case by stating that he is tunneling and using confirmation bias. Note how he seems to have stopped trying to defend himself.

After being pushed hard, he finally makes another case - on the easiest targert. Midnight is already under a load of suspision from various sources, and DYH seems to be desprately pushing the lynch off him onto the easiest targert avaliable.

Overall, I am once again leaning scum on DYH. His actions are really wierd this game and I dont believe that a good player such as DYH is making them. The vote on sloosh, application of wifom on the NK, and that town list are really suspisious. I also dont like the targert he chooses to attack - It is the easiest, with mutiple people already voicing out their suspisions on MG.

DoYouHas has my vote for today.

##vote: DoYouHas
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
February 20 2012 10:40 GMT
#586
Another thing is that I want to echo what jaj said before he died - submit your votes early. We are having timezone issues and it is best if we can consolidate our votes early so as to avoid retarded stuff like yesterday's rush of a (mis)lynch happen again.
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
February 20 2012 11:10 GMT
#587
On February 20 2012 18:14 Steveling wrote:

-snip-

vote##: DoYouHas

On another note, people don't panic please. And stop making these lists. We need solid stuff. Not fluff.
Also if you are gonna spend 1 hour filtering only to say that you find x and y to be town, then pls do something else.
We need opinions on scum not on town.


Your vote format is wrong.

The ## is before vote, not after it.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
February 20 2012 12:00 GMT
#588
it looks like scum is bussing dyh or we are really far off base.
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
February 20 2012 12:52 GMT
#589
Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads.

steveling reads as town to me

No reasoning.

##vote: Doyouhas

No reasoning.

he(MG) could just have wrong reads... which is what i believe is the case

Next to no reasoning.

You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum.
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 20 2012 14:39 GMT
#590
On February 20 2012 21:52 zelblade wrote:
Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads.

Show nested quote +
steveling reads as town to me

No reasoning.

Show nested quote +
##vote: Doyouhas

No reasoning.

Show nested quote +
he(MG) could just have wrong reads... which is what i believe is the case

Next to no reasoning.

You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum.


Zell I want you to think back for a moment, remember the start of the game? DYH accused manner and manner had that wonky response for which DYH said he was mafia, this happened pretty early in the game so I am inclined to believe that they are not both mafia. Unless you are suggesting that DYH convinced one of his teamates to sacrifice himself that early on(which isnt outside MY scope of possibility but most people tend to be a bit less imaginative then me)

Your accusation against mittch is valid if DYH flips green. in which case mittch looks just awful. So save your accusation for then, right now it feels like your trying to crumb suspicion on mittch not for this vote, but the next. As if you've seen the hit your team is about to take and feel the need to ensure that a mislynch happens tomorrow on one of the most obvious suspects.

That said I am paranoid at the moment, so I'll drop my vague suspicion of you.

Right now we are discussing DYH, no one has offered a defence for him despite the fact that if someone tried hard enough they could pull a case together because of how seemingly active he's been. So I think scum are now trying to distance themselves from him.

Heres whats I think is useful to hear right now in my opinion.

A defence of DYH before the psuedo deadline and suggestions for where to go if DYH flips green or red.

me on if DYH flips greed: If DYH flips green we need to start taking safe bets, so a Mitch lynch would be good in that scenario.





gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
gumshoe
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Canada3602 Posts
February 20 2012 14:47 GMT
#591
DYH do you have any other cases?
gumshoe bullshitting at 120%~~Prplz
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2012 15:11 GMT
#592
On February 20 2012 18:14 Steveling wrote:
My case has one weak point atm. I did not account for sloosh being a scum as well.
And I did not, cause I do not read him as as such.
I'd like some opinions on that.

My vote atm goes to DYH.

vote##: DoYouHas

On another note, people don't panic please. And stop making these lists. We need solid stuff. Not fluff.
Also if you are gonna spend 1 hour filtering only to say that you find x and y to be town, then pls do something else.
We need opinions on scum not on town.


Take your own advice. Your filter only contains stuff with gumshoe and weak commentary on MG.
Your stance on DYH (btw its not "your case" stop trying to look like you contributed anything) is built from the assumption that DYH is mafia and nitpicking for random junk. Either you suffer confirmation bias or are mafia busing.

Give us something new. Show some effort.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2012 15:19 GMT
#593
Whether DYH flips red or green should not direct us to our next lynch target.
Mafia know each other and can manipulate their connections, knowing that they might be linked.

We find the next suspect independently of DYH's posts.
If they align that adds weight to the case and that is fine, but the case should not be built upon how DYH is acting.

zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
February 20 2012 15:19 GMT
#594
On February 20 2012 23:39 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 20 2012 21:52 zelblade wrote:
Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads.

steveling reads as town to me

No reasoning.

##vote: Doyouhas

No reasoning.

he(MG) could just have wrong reads... which is what i believe is the case

Next to no reasoning.

You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum.


Zell I want you to think back for a moment, remember the start of the game? DYH accused manner and manner had that wonky response for which DYH said he was mafia, this happened pretty early in the game so I am inclined to believe that they are not both mafia. Unless you are suggesting that DYH convinced one of his teamates to sacrifice himself that early on(which isnt outside MY scope of possibility but most people tend to be a bit less imaginative then me)

Your accusation against mittch is valid if DYH flips green. in which case mittch looks just awful. So save your accusation for then, right now it feels like your trying to crumb suspicion on mittch not for this vote, but the next. As if you've seen the hit your team is about to take and feel the need to ensure that a mislynch happens tomorrow on one of the most obvious suspects.

That said I am paranoid at the moment, so I'll drop my vague suspicion of you.

Right now we are discussing DYH, no one has offered a defence for him despite the fact that if someone tried hard enough they could pull a case together because of how seemingly active he's been. So I think scum are now trying to distance themselves from him.

Heres whats I think is useful to hear right now in my opinion.

A defence of DYH before the psuedo deadline and suggestions for where to go if DYH flips green or red.

me on if DYH flips greed: If DYH flips green we need to start taking safe bets, so a Mitch lynch would be good in that scenario.







It is entirely possible that both of them are scum. Remember, mafia, especially at the start of the game, arent gonna buddy each other up - it would be obvious that something was going on. It is entirely possible for DYH to throw out some pressure onto manner easily. What i actually find suspisious now that you mention it is this: at that time when DYH decided to throw out his pressure on manner, why him? There were so many others that hadnt posted at all yet, yet out of all of them he chose to call out mannerkiss. I'll just quote ur day 1 list here.

+ Show Spoiler +
Early reports! All very preliminary but hopefully it'll give everyone an idea of where some townies stand and where some lurkers don't.

blae - absent but has an alibi(by alibi I mean he said before game that he would not be especially present day one)

Alderan - Absent no alibi

Ech - present but slightly suspicious ) :

Do you has - present has contributed somewhat(a single post against the word of Ech) no basis for suspicion

manner kiss- has presented himself but has not yet contributed to discussion. No basis for suspicion

steveling - is present has contributed to discussion does not seem suspicious.

track door - has made himself present has contributed somewhat to discussion no reason yet to suspect

midnight- is present has contributed , (is mean to me but rightfully so ) no reason to suspect as of yet

Sloosh - has contributed, acted out only to defend himself, does not seem suspicius

Janaan- is absent no alibi

tk hawakins- is absent no aibi

dimmuKlk- is absent no alibi

zell - is absent no alibi

jaj22 - is present, is also somewhat mean but justifiably so as far as I can tell, his negative tone is striking negative but not yet suspicion worthy.


As you can see, so many of us (including me), were not active yet. Why did he choose to pressure mannerkiss out of all of them? I find this really wierd and it seems that DoYouHas could be distancing himself from manner.

So no, I dont believe that my accusation is valid only if DYH flips green (rather unlikely).

I also dont see how DYH flipping green would incriminate mattchew though. Could you point it out to me?

And yes, I agree that the lack of defense for DYH is really wierd. This could obviously mean that we are:
1) Wrong
2) Its a bus!
3) Scum do not have much of a thread presence/are not being influential, and thus are not willing to take the risk to go ahead with a solid defence of DYH, and are thus, as you said, distancing themselves from him.

Im currently sold on (3) personally. I dont believe that mafia would be actively bussing him at this point in time just for some town cred. Town cred is fickle and I would be pretty glad if they were doing so as they would be giving us a pretty dangerous scum on a silver platter.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
February 20 2012 15:23 GMT
#595
On February 20 2012 23:39 gumshoe wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 20 2012 21:52 zelblade wrote:
Matt, is this how you usually post? I dont like this style of posting. You give next to no reasoning for your reads.

steveling reads as town to me

No reasoning.

##vote: Doyouhas

No reasoning.

he(MG) could just have wrong reads... which is what i believe is the case

Next to no reasoning.

You are not being transparent with your reads. One of the main aims as a townie is to prove your innocence. MannerKiss was doing an excellent job at failing at that, and your shallow one-liners are not helping. I would seriously consider changing my vote onto you if not for the fact that DYH is much more likely to flip scum.


Zell I want you to think back for a moment, remember the start of the game? DYH accused manner and manner had that wonky response for which DYH said he was mafia, this happened pretty early in the game so I am inclined to believe that they are not both mafia. Unless you are suggesting that DYH convinced one of his teamates to sacrifice himself that early on(which isnt outside MY scope of possibility but most people tend to be a bit less imaginative then me)

Your accusation against mittch is valid if DYH flips green. in which case mittch looks just awful. So save your accusation for then, right now it feels like your trying to crumb suspicion on mittch not for this vote, but the next. As if you've seen the hit your team is about to take and feel the need to ensure that a mislynch happens tomorrow on one of the most obvious suspects.

That said I am paranoid at the moment, so I'll drop my vague suspicion of you.

Right now we are discussing DYH, no one has offered a defence for him despite the fact that if someone tried hard enough they could pull a case together because of how seemingly active he's been. So I think scum are now trying to distance themselves from him.

Heres whats I think is useful to hear right now in my opinion.

A defence of DYH before the psuedo deadline and suggestions for where to go if DYH flips green or red.

me on if DYH flips greed: If DYH flips green we need to start taking safe bets, so a Mitch lynch would be good in that scenario.







i am matt... or mattchew.


thank you.

In response to zelblade, this is actually the most correct and logical post you have ever made. However, as you may have seen with my other posts, I am still reading but I have to vote and I have to play. I am half sheeping some of my town reads (based on their cases made) and half basing my votes off the filters off these candidates, all while catching up on the longest mafia posts thread I have ever seen (thanks gum!) ... I have not yet been a serious lynch candidate either which means that I don't have to be too transparent until you all actually think that I am scum. I have barely caught up reading (not to the detail that I would like but w.e).

Would you rather me just read and get modkilled for not voting? Also, DYH was the obvious pick for today.

Is it scummy when I havent read enough to make my own reads, to base votes off those whom I believe to be town's opinions?
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
February 20 2012 15:24 GMT
#596
also, DYH flipping either way shows nothing to my alignment
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
slOosh
Profile Joined October 2009
3291 Posts
February 20 2012 15:26 GMT
#597
Less time arguing, more time scumhunting!!
Also, I want to reiterate, it is WIFOM to think about DYH - mannerkiss connection. Let's not waste our energies on that.
(zelblade posted as I did so that's ok. but no more please)
zelblade
Profile Joined December 2011
Australia901 Posts
February 20 2012 15:35 GMT
#598
@matt

I have been assuming that you have finished reading since you stated here about 12 hours ago:

i changed my mind. midnight and gum are both bad lynches. gumshoe after more reading is trying really hard and is pro-town. midnight i am skeptical of but is not as good a lynch as doyouhas.

i am almost caught up on reading the thread / filters.


And no, I rather you not be modkilled, but I still want you to chime in your thoughts on the lynch candidate. A simple vote without any reasoning makes it extremely hard to hold you accountable if this turns out to be a mislynch. When questioned, you can simply reply "Oh I was just sheeping" This has no accountability and I dont like it.

And I do agree that DYH's flip shows nothing about your aglinment. And another thing, do you actually think that gumshoes points on you are valid?

To summarize this is what he points out
1) You are not mafia if DYH flips red because he pressured (not even with a vote) mannerkiss early on.
2) Im scum because I am suspisious of your posting, attacking the easy targert, and (in his mind) trying to set up a mislynch.
3) If DYH flips green you are red and need to be lynched.

Do you really find this logical? You have already said that DYH's flip says nothing about you, which I believe is true. If so, why do you think that gumshoe's post - largely based off how you are only scum if DYH flips green? I dont see how you see this as "logical".
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
February 20 2012 15:36 GMT
#599
On February 21 2012 00:11 slOosh wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 20 2012 18:14 Steveling wrote:
My case has one weak point atm. I did not account for sloosh being a scum as well.
And I did not, cause I do not read him as as such.
I'd like some opinions on that.

My vote atm goes to DYH.

vote##: DoYouHas

On another note, people don't panic please. And stop making these lists. We need solid stuff. Not fluff.
Also if you are gonna spend 1 hour filtering only to say that you find x and y to be town, then pls do something else.
We need opinions on scum not on town.


Take your own advice. Your filter only contains stuff with gumshoe and weak commentary on MG.
Your stance on DYH (btw its not "your case" stop trying to look like you contributed anything) is built from the assumption that DYH is mafia and nitpicking for random junk. Either you suffer confirmation bias or are mafia busing.

Give us something new. Show some effort.


Offering something solid /= randomly accusing someone just to enrich my filter.
My general playstyle is to try and find clues. I'm not gut guessing or throwing random punches hoping to hit something good. So it takes time.
Anyway I'll try to give more opinions.

But I don't like your 2nd point. I spent quite enough time on the DYH case to have you telling me that I contributed nothing and that I'm "nitpicking random junk". T_T
I know it's not my case, but I think I offered new clues.


My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
Mattchew
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States5684 Posts
February 20 2012 15:41 GMT
#600
As of right now


rgTheSchworz - lets give him a chance to post a little
DoYouHas - should be lynched today

Of these five, 2 or 3 should be the remaining scum team (+/- rg) This is who vig should shoot into in this order
Alderan
TKHawkins
trackd00r
Janaan
zelblade

Remaining Skeptical of
EchelonTee

When is night post?
anyone can answer this
There is always tomorrow nshs.seal.
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