EPT
Newbie Mini Mafia II - Page 5
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Blazinghand
United States25563 Posts
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GreYMisT
United States6736 Posts
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Jitsu
United States929 Posts
Glad to see Sheth here. Let's get the activity started. | ||
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CookieMaker
Canada880 Posts
However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! | ||
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Jitsu
United States929 Posts
Echoing what is posted previously, it should be noted that contribution can only help town, as more posts means more analysis which can help root out who the scum players are. Just wondering Probulous, why do you want to know how many games only those four players have played? | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:11 CookieMaker wrote: Okay townies... we are presented with a dilemma. Disadvantage #1: There are few (if any) roles in this game, making identity confirmation scarce. However, that being said, the significant advantage we have over the mafia is their lack of killing power. They are only going to be able to snipe (at most, with any luck we got a doc) one person each night. This means the pressure is really going to be on them to avoid being lynched. I urge you, when voting time comes, do your homework, and proofread the homework of others carefully. Rash vote swings by emotional players only help the scum hide on their bandwagons. I am making an assumption here, but the other likely advantage we possess is the experience of a few key players. I'd be absolutely shocked if all three mafiasifarians were players who had (lots of) prior experience playing, but I'd also be surprised if they were three complete newbies. My impression is that one mafia will be a strong player and will deftly manipulate and lead the other two. So this is the first day. I elect #thefirstpersontocomeupwithaplan for mayor There is no mayor and that is big assumption given this is a specifically newbie game with everyone on less than 3 games. To me, it is more reasonable that nobody is an assumed strong player and we will find out who are, as we go along. Of course previous experience is useful for setting activity expectations but deciding on scum targets based on possible non-random allocation is a big reach. I don't like it. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:20 Jitsu wrote: I have played one Mafia game on the TL.Net forums, but I have played before elsewhere as well, in different mediums. Echoing what is posted previously, it should be noted that contribution can only help town, as more posts means more analysis which can help root out who the scum players are. Just wondering Probulous, why do you want to know how many games only those four players have played? One reason is activity expectations. Anyone with any reading of this forum know that people that don't contribute and are mod-killed ruin games. People who have played should know this intimately and I would expect them to be active. Like I said everyone should be, but these people I am unfairly placing on a higher pedestal. If you're town this should not be a problem, I can't focus on everyone all the time and I have to start somewhere. Secondly, if they have had games on here, it gives me the opportunity to have a read of their history. As for why those four, the others had already stated their number of games played. As mentioned this is my first. | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? | ||
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AnxiousHippo
Australia1451 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:34 Probulous wrote: Haha, hey. I don't really know what to do early on. Last game (the only other I've played) I think someone got lynched for something really stupid like asking for help. Scum is often afraid to make accusations and contradict themselves. They may say one thing today and the opposite tomorrow. In bigger games they might just lurk and post very occasionally to avoid attention but I don't think we'll have to worry about that so much this game since there's only 12 people. I don't have the slightest idea as to how to make a plan though.Fellow Aussie, AnxiousHippo, I know you are there. What are your thoughts for a day 1 plan? | ||
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AnxiousHippo
Australia1451 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:49 AnxiousHippo wrote: I'm pretty sure scum are sometimes referred to as Reds, I guess he was trying to make a pun? I don't think it was a slip. Myeah, You're probably right, since as I said, I wouldn't expect even a newbie mafia slip this early. Gotta be careful about puns though, they could be misunderstood. Even though it actually could be good scumbaiting, fishing for the player's reactions for better reads? Well, in any case we'll have to get some discussion going on. Or random accusations to get people to talk. (Or maybe I'm just too eager regardless of the fact I know most people in Europe won't be awake at a time like this.) | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:42 Cephiro wrote: I'll have to say CookieMaker provides a few good points to start with. Even though none of us knows the exact set up, I would have to argue that we as town have a much better starting point. Considering the case that the mafia would have a role blocker, it will most likely be less useful until later game when people are starting to have better reads on each other. If the town has both the medic and detective, it is quite likely that they will be able to do something useful. (Mafia role blocker would have 9 persons to choose from, since he/she would know the 3 mafia.) That leaves a 2/9 = around 22% chance of roleblocking on the first day, since I'm quite sure there will be no roleclaims this early. On the other hand, the medic has a very small chance of blocking the first kill on N1 (1/11 * 8/9 ~ 8% chance), but the detective has a chance of as much as 27% finding scum on N1 if he doesn't die. (Which would be about 24% in total, which is still higher than the chance of mafia roleblocking.) Note: You may notice I'm into maths a lot.... Also, it might even be that the mafia has a roleblocker but the town has no power roles, which renders the mafia roleblocker useless, making the situation even worse for them. Anyway, I think that we should try to be provocative and try to raise as much discussion as possible. In my opinion we should aim to lynch someone (hopefully scum) on D1. A no-lynch would essentially give the mafia a free kill, and not necessarily get us that much more information. Also... What a lovely way to start the game... but on the other hand, I doubt even a newbie scum player would slip that early, even though it could be done on purpose to make us think even a newbie wouldn't slip such, but in fact being scum anyway? Lovely maths, does it say anything  For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining  | ||
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Probulous
Australia3894 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:45 AnxiousHippo wrote: Haha, hey. I don't really know what to do early on. Last game (the only other I've played) I think someone got lynched for something really stupid like asking for help. Scum is often afraid to make accusations and contradict themselves. They may say one thing today and the opposite tomorrow. In bigger games they might just lurk and post very occasionally to avoid attention but I don't think we'll have to worry about that so much this game since there's only 12 people. I don't have the slightest idea as to how to make a plan though. I will not try to lynch you for saying something stupid. We all make mistakes. However, I will come down on you with hell-fire if you don't take a stand and argue your case. There is no point trying to ascertain mafia's intentions, it all leads to WIFOM. Read their actions and responses. As you say being wishy-washy is a mafia trait, so don't do it and pick up on people that do. It is better to be wrong than silent. | ||
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CookieMaker
Canada880 Posts
On January 03 2012 05:35 GreYMisT wrote: One of the following setups will be chosen at random, you will not know which setup has been chosen. Set Up: 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective 1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town 3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town This for clarification On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining I strongly agree with this (the bad pun). It was well-played. Joking aside, had to re-read the rules just to make sure no-lynches were possible. A no-lynch puts much stronger pressure on scum, especially since they have no way of knowing whether a DT is in the game or not. Here's more informational math: There is a 50/50 chance of a DT being in the game. Right now that is also true from a mafia perspective, whether they have a roleblocker (they still see 50/50) or not. | ||
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Blurry
Switzerland125 Posts
I would however advise against strongly pushing for a lynch without any concrete evidence or based solely off of speculation as with low killing power, lynching someone who is innocent would cause much more damage then simply not lynching at all. | ||
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gonzaw
Uruguay4911 Posts
On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote: I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable. With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played? Jitsu Xeris Gretorp Gonzaw This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! This is my first game here, I think I said so before. I've played several games on UG though. I think there are two players from Election Mafia (one game I observed quite recently), Sheth and Jitsu I believe. I would suggest reread that game so we can know these guy's meta and stuff. Also I'd like to know if someone else played another game here, so we can reread those games too. On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Unless we are at MYLO, a miss-lynch gives you a lot of info. It gives you info on the players that interacted with that guy or voted for said guy. Obviously it gives you info of that guy (since he flipped). If you no-lynch, you basicly forfeit the day and let scum take the initiative at night. I think no-lynching should only be used if everybody derps a lot and the lynch of any player would give us no info whatsoever. | ||
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Cephiro
Finland1934 Posts
On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote: Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on. | ||
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AnxiousHippo
Australia1451 Posts
On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote: Why and how would an RB reveal themself?The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm. | ||
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