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On January 04 2012 11:18 CookieMaker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 03 2012 05:35 GreYMisT wrote:
One of the following setups will be chosen at random, you will not know which setup has been chosen.
Set Up:
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 7 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 2 Mafia Goons, 9 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Medic, 8 Town
3 Mafia Goons, 1 Detective, 8 Town
This for clarification Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining  I strongly agree with this (the bad pun). It was well-played. Joking aside, had to re-read the rules just to make sure no-lynches were possible. A no-lynch puts much stronger pressure on scum, especially since they have no way of knowing whether a DT is in the game or not. Here's more informational math: There is a 50/50 chance of a DT being in the game. Right now that is also true from a mafia perspective, whether they have a roleblocker (they still see 50/50) or not.
My bad, I missed the second one in the list 
So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today?
I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing.
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On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.
Why and how would an RB reveal themself?
By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options.
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DAY 1: Right now from my perspective we have the following lynching objectives as town:
1. Not Lynch Innocents
-The only way we can be absolutely certain of this to happen is with a no-lynch (tied vote).
-This benefits us strongly if there is a DT in the game. It is understandable that the DT won't reveal because of the threat of being killed.
2. Lynch mafia
-Currently hopeful at best. Statistically extremely low chance of getting this right, especially with mafia votes.
Right now I'm in favor of a no-lynch until more pressure is applied and reads can be made.
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On January 04 2012 11:21 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Lovely maths, does it say anything For one Mafia cannot have a roleblocker with no town power roles. The only setup with a roleblocker is one where we have both a medic and DT. Secondly, the maths doesn't help us actually do anything, unless there is something I am missing. Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Yes it was a bad pun, I am not sure how it could be a scum tell. So much for trying to be entertaining Well, it was mainly some statistics to prove how the situation is better for town in case the mafia has a role blocker and we have power roles. Also, there is a set up which contains both power roles (DT+Medic for town), and the mafia roleblocker. You can check the opening post for the 4 possible setups. I'm not entirely convinced on a no-lynch, but I do agree that lynching a townie on D1 is a bad start. I think it comes down to how much information we'll have, if there are any seemingly scumreads I personally think we gain more as town if we try to lynch the scum, since if we hit, we are at a very good advantage. And even if we don't, it will raise much more discussion and easier reads depending on who has been voting for who and so on.
I agree with this. It is also why we need everyone to post. We can't catch scum if they say nothing.
Sheth, you finished dinner yet?
Gretorp, Cats are you guys around?
Blurry and Cephiro, thanks for staying up so late.
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On January 04 2012 11:31 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote:On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.
Why and how would an RB reveal themself? By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options.
If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed.
If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up.
If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR
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On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.
Why and how would an RB reveal themself?
Not directly to everyone but lets say player A is a detective. Player A gets role blocked one night and now knows which of the setups is present. This may not be shared with the entire town but is useful information for the specific player to have.
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On January 04 2012 11:20 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable.
With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played?
Jitsu
Xeris
Gretorp
Gonzaw
This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! This is my first game here, I think I said so before. I've played several games on UG though. I think there are two players from Election Mafia (one game I observed quite recently), Sheth and Jitsu I believe. I would suggest reread that game so we can know these guy's meta and stuff. Also I'd like to know if someone else played another game here, so we can reread those games too. Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Unless we are at MYLO, a miss-lynch gives you a lot of info. It gives you info on the players that interacted with that guy or voted for said guy. Obviously it gives you info of that guy (since he flipped). If you no-lynch, you basicly forfeit the day and let scum take the initiative at night. I think no-lynching should only be used if everybody derps a lot and the lynch of any player would give us no info whatsoever.
I am confused I thought MYLO meant mislynch and lose. If that is the case, a miss-lynch is the end of the game I guess that gives you a lot of information but certainly doesn't help town.
Let me be clear, we are trying to lynch scum today and every day. That is our goal however lofty it may be. If we cannot get agreement then we can discuss a no-lynch. All I was stating is that a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch, but lets avoid this alltogether and lynch scum.
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On January 04 2012 11:27 Probulous wrote:My bad, I missed the second one in the list So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today? I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing.
Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles.
What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either.
But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch.
Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia!
I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though.
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I like what you have to say Ceph.
also:
On January 04 2012 11:40 Blurry wrote:
Not directly to everyone but lets say player A is a detective. Player A gets role blocked one night and now knows which of the setups is present. This may not be shared with the entire town but is useful information for the specific player to have.
This situation only applies to either a DT or medic who get's RB'd. Only they will know the truth. If a RB is claimed, any medic/DT will have to determine the validity of the claim for themself.
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On January 04 2012 11:39 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:31 Probulous wrote:On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote:On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.
Why and how would an RB reveal themself? By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options. If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR
Fair enough but this comes down to WIFOM. I still think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. We gain nothing from these discussions right now.
I want to hear from Sheth, where you at bro?
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Yeah I'm around. Just reading the thread and getting a sense of the situation since I've never played before. It would seem that not lynching unless reasonably certain would be the way to go. Although I'm not sure how we could be certain of anything on D1.
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RE: No Lynch -
Having no-lynches is pretty stupid.
We have no Vig KP. We win the game by killing the mafia, IE: by lynching. Even miss-lynching gives information of some kind, and only in very specific circumstances is a no-lynch acceptable. If we miss-lynch town, we gain information. The only thing that is gained from a no-lynch is another [possible] Detective read, which can weed out Mafia, but at this point, we don't even know if we have that. No lynches simply give the mafia a chance to get ahead in numbers with no repercussions.
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EBWOP: Hypothetical no lynch today - we end up in the same boat we are in tomorrow. We have no more information, and down a townie, possibly a blue. Bad.
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That is a good point Jitsu.
As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch.
Again, where are the other US guys?
Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote.
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Do we really need to discuss the lynch/no lynch any further?
lynch=information
no lynch=no information
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On January 04 2012 11:44 Cephiro wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:27 Probulous wrote:My bad, I missed the second one in the list So essentially, there is a 50/50 chance of every role. How is this useful? I don't see how speculating over power roles helps. They don't change how we play. You still have to actively scum hunt and call out bullshit. Once someone claims or the night actions become apparent this info may be useful, but I don't like the idea of discussing it now.What do you want to do today? I am happy prodding people to post and then checking their response. Voting for those not contributing. Heh, such happens. But yeah, the statistics won't be very useful yet, but they are good to know anyway. (I study statistics at uni, and I love to try and apply them into everything.) I am quite sure it will become useful sooner or later, especially if we get the chance of backtracking roles. What I want to do today is covered in my post you already quoted. I would like us to be able to raise enough discussion and get a decent shot at who could be scum, since 2 mafia versus 8-9 townies (depending on if one dies N1 or not) would be an incredibly good situation for us. CookieMaker has a good point though, there is a 50% chance that there is a DT in the game, and buying him time to find the scum isn't a bad idea either. But we can't be certain if there is one or not, which why I'm still slightly favour for trying to lynch scum today, at least for now. We have quite a bit of time on us though, so if it seems like we can't get good reads on anyone and it's just a huge mess, we can still go for the no-lynch. Also, no problem for staying up late, I'm very bad at sleeping early and I'm so excited to play my first game of Forum Mafia! I will be going to sleep in 20 minutes or so though.
So this is your first forum game ever? Not just first game on TL?
You seem to know quite a bit about the game though, may explain why?
Also, I'm fairly good with statistics/probabilities myself (just ask Jackal58), and I use them fairly in mafia games.
If the situation arises, it can be very helpful, as long as everything in the game is RNGed.
I assume this setup is RNGed, right?
On January 04 2012 11:50 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:39 gonzaw wrote:On January 04 2012 11:31 Probulous wrote:On January 04 2012 11:27 AnxiousHippo wrote:On January 04 2012 11:18 Blurry wrote:
The thing to watch for initially is whether or not a role blocker reveals himself. I doubt a role blocker would do anything so early however as they have no idea who to target and successfully cause some harm.
Why and how would an RB reveal themself? By roleblocking. If they block someone at night, that person (if they are town) should let us know the next day. you are informed if you have been blocked. That way we can eliminate some of the setup options. If there are 3 goons, a goon can fake-claim being RBed. If we go by that "If someone claims RBed, there is a RBer", then it will fuck us up. If there is a Medic, then he will believe there's also a DT (when in fact there isn't), and viceversa, and that can help scum with fake-claiming the other PR Fair enough but this comes down to WIFOM. I still think we should cross this bridge when we get to it. We gain nothing from these discussions right now. I want to hear from Sheth, where you at bro?
Well, to be honest, I think we should get all the WIFOM-inducing things out of the way as soon as possible.
That way other players will know when something is WIFOM or not (for instance if I hadn't said what I said, and the situation rose, some townies could think that it isn't in fact WIFOM and it's fact, and scum could take advantage of this).
Plus, it gets some discussion going, and you can see how other players react to it (or don't react at all).
On January 04 2012 11:43 Probulous wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:20 gonzaw wrote:On January 04 2012 10:12 Probulous wrote:
I expect great things from those that have played before. It seems fair to me that they should be expected to contribute. Of course, everyone should be actively contributing, but I will be really disapointed if the guys who have played don't put in the effort. You know the cost and will be held accountable.
With this in mind can the following people let me know how many (if any) games they have played?
Jitsu
Xeris
Gretorp
Gonzaw
This is my first game and I intend to win. Come on town let the streets flow with red red blood! This is my first game here, I think I said so before. I've played several games on UG though. I think there are two players from Election Mafia (one game I observed quite recently), Sheth and Jitsu I believe. I would suggest reread that game so we can know these guy's meta and stuff. Also I'd like to know if someone else played another game here, so we can reread those games too. On January 04 2012 11:05 Probulous wrote:Thirdly a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch. I will be more happy to not lynch someone than lynch someone I think is town. Unless we are at MYLO, a miss-lynch gives you a lot of info. It gives you info on the players that interacted with that guy or voted for said guy. Obviously it gives you info of that guy (since he flipped). If you no-lynch, you basicly forfeit the day and let scum take the initiative at night. I think no-lynching should only be used if everybody derps a lot and the lynch of any player would give us no info whatsoever. I am confused I thought MYLO meant mislynch and lose. If that is the case, a miss-lynch is the end of the game I guess that gives you a lot of information but certainly doesn't help town. Let me be clear, we are trying to lynch scum today and every day. That is our goal however lofty it may be. If we cannot get agreement then we can discuss a no-lynch. All I was stating is that a no-lynch is better than a miss-lynch, but lets avoid this alltogether and lynch scum.
That's the point, if we are at MYLO then misslynching is not better than no-lynching (it loses us the game).
But at D1, and any other time it's better.
Of course barring exceptional situations and stuff.
On January 04 2012 12:06 Probulous wrote:
That is a good point Jitsu.
As I have stated, I am aiming for a mafia lynch. Only if I believe that we are headed for a miss-lynch will I advocate a no-lynch.
Again, where are the other US guys?
Sheth, Gretorp? You're asking for a vote.
The day is 48 horus long, right?
I would suggest pressure voting lurkers/inactives after 24 hours or so are past.
Although I don't know if you guys do that here or not.
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On January 04 2012 11:59 Jitsu wrote:
EBWOP: Hypothetical no lynch today - we end up in the same boat we are in tomorrow. We have no more information, and down a townie, possibly a blue. Bad.
Incorrect: We get more information, especially if we can get the participation level up a little bit.
There's also going to be more posts from all players(god hopefully) before the day is through. Clearly the pool of prime lynch candidates is shallow at the moment. I will be voting for the player with the lowest vote total until I see a better option.
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On January 04 2012 12:13 CookieMaker wrote:Show nested quote +On January 04 2012 11:59 Jitsu wrote:
EBWOP: Hypothetical no lynch today - we end up in the same boat we are in tomorrow. We have no more information, and down a townie, possibly a blue. Bad. Incorrect: We get more information, especially if we can get the participation level up a little bit. There's also going to be more posts from all players(god hopefully) before the day is through. Clearly the pool of prime lynch candidates is shallow at the moment. I will be voting for the player with the lowest vote total until I see a better option.
Explain how we get more information.
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United States2095 Posts
Probulous I like the effort getting me to post. I'm here. Was just reading the thread and thinking about whats going on.
The possibility of having a RGN random generated number lynch has been talked about in a lot of other mafia games as a way to start off the game. Also, all of this talk of No-Lynch vs Lynch is silly. Not for most of the reasons talked about yet, but because we want everyone to talk, so putting pressure on someone is where you find the mistakes. ESPECIALLY in a game full of newbies. There will be a lynch.
Jitsu, we've played before and you probably know my scum read and I know your town read. This is invaluable to us, and please use any reads you have on me. I'm actually going to try and post like Arctocod did in our last game.
CatsnHats, welcome to your first game of mafia. You say "Not lynching unless reasonably certain". This is a scummy thing to say, as its leaning towards not lynching today. You realize there is no way to be "reasonably certain" on day one. Get it together and find some scum, or I'm picking you for our day one lynch.
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United States2095 Posts
To clarify, I'm not suggesting RGN'ing, I'm comparing RGN to No-Lynch and I believe they are both a foolish way to lynch.
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EPT
