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On January 15 2012 10:29 GreYMisT wrote:Also, considering the final day, One of the keys to surviving an lylo situation is to take a step back, and instead of diving into each person's posting and analysis, just take a broad look at their actions and interactions with others in the game. Usally you will find something that doesnt quite fit. Take cephiro on the last day for example. When asked about lynching gonzaw, he said his reasoning will be coming shortly, yet he posts a SUUUUPPPEER long thing on cats before even coming around to gonzaw. and by that time it is basically time for the game to be over. its subtle, but you can sense a reluctance to lynch gonzaw in his posting, even when he says he is fine lynching him.
To be honest, he did spend like 5-6 hours doing those posts >_>
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On January 15 2012 10:43 Blazinghand wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2012 10:37 GreYMisT wrote:
Jitsu wins the Observer betting show I feel, in very close second place in Tunkeg and Blazinghand.
Man Jitsu you win this time mr obs betting guy :/I must say that was well played by mafia and most of town. I'm particularly impressed with Probulous' game. I fear and anticipate meeting you in future games.
Too bad I couldn't actually accomplish anything in the game, other than getting suspicious of Sheth right before Probulous came out with his analysis, and saying "gonzaw" right before I died.
Again. Sigh.
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haha yea, if you read the scum QT, both Gonzaw and Ceph pegged Prob and Blurry as the Dt and Medic at about the same time.
Also thanks for playing guys, It was fun!
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WELL PLAYED CEPHIRO AND GONZAW. GG guys. This was a lot of fun. I will definitely be signing up for future games.
I was thinking at work about the Cephiro + Gonzaw combo. How if they decided in the QT before hand that Cephiro would try and gain town cred and gonzaw would just post a bunch of non-sense as a smokescreen. The thing is this is all speculative.
Dang I really wish I didn't have to work, because I definitely would have posted more on it. The more I thought about how gonzaw was basically bussing himself by posting nonsense made me think that was his tactic all along as scum to get town confused.
Cephiro played very well though. One odd thing about Ceph's filter is the lack of communication between him and Gonzaw almost all game. Then when he posted on Cats after I made a pretty strong case against gonzaw, that struck me as odd, but I thought Cats was mafia. Thus I just dismissed the issue, which was a huge mistake. I didn't care who we lynched out of the two.
Then bkrow comes and drops the ball completely at the end of the game, but this overall was a great learning experience. I'm just glad I wasn't the reason town lost.
In hindsight I wish I would have pushed Cephiro harder. He stated in the beginning he was good at mind games. I should have been more open-minded. I should have been more vigilant in pushing everyone.
GG again to all participants! Hope to play with you guys again soon!
GreYMisT: You hosting any games in the near future?
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On January 15 2012 11:01 Jitsu wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2012 10:43 Blazinghand wrote:On January 15 2012 10:37 GreYMisT wrote:
Jitsu wins the Observer betting show I feel, in very close second place in Tunkeg and Blazinghand.
Man Jitsu you win this time mr obs betting guy :/I must say that was well played by mafia and most of town. I'm particularly impressed with Probulous' game. I fear and anticipate meeting you in future games. Too bad I couldn't actually accomplish anything in the game, other than getting suspicious of Sheth right before Probulous came out with his analysis, and saying "gonzaw" right before I died. Again. Sigh.
lol, your situation was like Citizen Kane or something:
-Before dying, Jitsu said "(I'll check) gonzaw.......('s filter)".
Then everybody spent D3 analizing what this meant.
They analysed Jitsu's history (filter) to find any indications of what his last words meant.
However, Town soon forgot about it, but when all was lost, it was revealed.....that "gonzaw was scum".
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@Paperscraps I've been cleared to put Insane mafia III on the queue after sleeper cell 2 opens signups.
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Game was kinda screwed for town with inactivity and all those replacements.
I caught Cephiro day 1 but I barely read the thread, to be honest. I'll come up with some thoughts once I've had time to read the last 10-20 pages or however many I haven't read yet.
To my pupil: you asked good questions, and you played well. You did your job well and that's why you died early. If you want some more advice just PM me and I'll respond as best as I can.
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On January 15 2012 11:12 wherebugsgo wrote:
I caught Cephiro day 1 but I barely read the thread, to be honest. I'll come up with some thoughts once I've had time to read the last 10-20 pages or however many I haven't read yet.
I think everyone caught me on day 1, but I managed to convince surprisingly many the opposite after that.
Will be looking forward to your and the "game analysis", or thoughts of other experienced players as well. 
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On January 15 2012 11:12 wherebugsgo wrote:
To my pupil: you asked good questions, and you played well. You did your job well and that's why you died early. If you want some more advice just PM me and I'll respond as best as I can.
Oh, who was it?
Also, I think with our coach we just talked about Mario 64 and joked and stuff >_>
Was great fun though! Go Go Cyber_Cheese!
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I'll try a noobie analysis of the game, and why the scum took this:
Ghosttown
I would say one of the biggest reasons the town lost was the amount of lurkers and inactives in the beginning. The scumteam had no problem appearing active, and was never really threathen during day one. These inactives remained hard to read throughout the game because of their "previous owners" lurky ways (one got modkilled, one got townlynched and the last one was comfirmed by prob before prob died).
Missreads
The town kept missreading players intention. I pushed the CM/AKCT lynch for things I thought was scummy, which instead was more newbie mistakes. Cats were under pressure the entire game, mainly because of a very strange early game, which including him voting himself. Even though his play in the end was quite good, he could never recover from his early mistakes, and the town kept missreading him until the end.
The mother of all fuck ups
Blurry claimed when he shouldn't and that led to his death and probs death, which instead may have led to a confirmed DT read on Gonz.
Great play by scum
Maybe THE reason for the town loss was great play by scum. The day one feud between Ceph and Sheth made me, and probably the rest of the town think they were nowhere near affiliated. A great play by prob, the DT check on Sheth, and the lynching of Sheth actually ended up playing into the scumteams favor, as town (led by prob) now dropped their suspicions against Ceph. Now Ceph was confirmed town.
Before this Gonz also made a play against me. I still think the analysis he did weren't all that great (and I would probably have tunneled him hard if I had survived the night). He forced me into making a big post about all the filler and useless post I thought he had made. But when scum lynched I thought that no scum would be dumb enough to have someone who is NK'ed putting up their case on them, as town really should read through any posts made by the NK'ed again knowing that he was town. I think also the town applied this WIFOM logic, and thought that Gonz couldn't be town for it (at least at the time). This was a brilliant play by Gonz (even though I think he overdid it later in the game by getting into an arguement with Jitsu right before he died, and prob right before he died, which made Gonz look very cummy towards the end).
The scums nightactions were also flawless, they did a brilliant move by holding back the RB early on in the game (which later helped them getting the medic killed), and their killorders were smart. The kill on me night one was good as doc should have me as a third choice at best (Prob and Jitsu being 1 and 2). The kill on Jitsu as they now were more sure that Prob wasn't doc. The third night kill on Prob after medic died. All great moves.
What I learned from this?
1. Town needs to be active!
2. Don't be so triggerhappy against players making mistakes. Analyse the mistakes don't just assume every mistake is something scummy.
3. I need to reconsider the interactions dead players have made. What arguements have other made against them? What arguements did the dead player make himself? Etc etc...
4. People who have pushed lynches on dead scumplayers aren't confirmed townies!
Town MVP
Probolous. He were the most active throughout the game, his DT play were great, and he were the one who got Sheth lynched.
Scum MVP
gonzaw. While his play in the thread in the end seemed very shady, and should have gotten him lynched (!!), his comments and ideas in scum QT were great. OVerall though the scumteam played very good!
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On January 15 2012 11:25 Tunkeg wrote:
This was a brilliant play by Gonz (even though I think he overdid it later in the game by getting into an arguement with Jitsu right before he died, and prob right before he died, which made Gonz look very cummy towards the end).
>_>
EDIT: Anyways, thanks for the analysis! (and the MVP award, although maybe it should be split in many different areas IMO, I don't think each scum member was any less or any better than the other, not even Sheth)
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On January 15 2012 11:27 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2012 11:25 Tunkeg wrote:
This was a brilliant play by Gonz (even though I think he overdid it later in the game by getting into an arguement with Jitsu right before he died, and prob right before he died, which made Gonz look very cummy towards the end). >_> EDIT: Anyways, thanks for the analysis! (and the MVP award, although maybe it should be split in many different areas IMO, I don't think each scum member was any less or any better than the other, not even Sheth)
LOL. Bad typo there 
And yeah, I kind of agree, the scumteam as a whole did a great job!
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On January 15 2012 11:27 gonzaw wrote:
I don't think each scum member was any less or any better than the other.
This. We played perfectly for the team. (Well, obviously we had flaws in our play, but pretty much all of our play was based on our plans as a team.) With anyone missing it wouldn't have worked out.
So great job everyone!
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So who where the coaches coaching?
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It's usually not revealed who the coaches we're coaching, AFAIK
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I would leave it up to the players.
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On January 15 2012 11:25 Tunkeg wrote:
The mother of all fuck ups
Blurry claimed when he shouldn't and that led to his death and probs death, which instead may have led to a confirmed DT read on Gonz.
I'd like to point something out about it.
First, yes, it was a bad claim.
However, Blurry was very unlucky.
First, there was a RBer, which means the RBer (yours truly ) could RB him, and basicly make him lynched the next day (had Blurry survived the lynch).
Second, if Prob had thought there was a RBer, then he wouldn't have pushed for Blurry's lynch, and may even have believed him (when Blurry was eventually RBed).
This was less bad play from Prob and Blurry, and I think better play from scum that decided not to RB both nights.
EDIT:
Also, if Blurry wasn't lynched (and there was a NL), I don't know if Prob would have suspected I was scum at that point. I think he would have checked Paper or Blurry perhaps (so he would really know if there is a RBer or not).
EDIT:
On January 15 2012 11:59 Jitsu wrote:
It's usually not revealed who the coaches we're coaching, AFAIK
You don't?
>_>
<_<
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First off thanks to Palmar. He answered my questions with simple clear answers. Timezone was difficult but I got what I asked for.
Secondly, FUCK YOU CEPHIRO 
I've said it before, if you were scum you deserved the win. I really feel town was screwed by having a scum team that just vastly outplayed the majority of the town. Tunk and Jitsu (especially) played really well but as always the good die young. If you look at the rest of the days there was me against Gonzaw and Cephiro. Cats played really well in the end, but had no credit. Blurry lurked and then WTF claimed, the rest of town provided almost nothing.
Knowing that Cephiro was scum makes me feel good about my reads. If Ceph wasn't scum then my first day reads were all wrong! My DT checks were pretty spot on though, Sheth and Gonzaw were red so I am happy with that. But by far my best play I feel was changing my read on Cats. It is really hard to go back and change something that you are sure of but in this case it was the right thing to do.
As for scum you played very well, it is kind of ironic that the only reason I looked at Sheth night one was cause of Ceph but it bought him town cred with me. His noticing of Blurry's breadcrumbs was also brilliant play. Gonz, you played well but your over aggressive responses made it very clear to me you were scum. Of course it didn't matter because I died but if they others had read over my case it would have been clear.
So awards
MVP - Town goes to Jitsu, scum goes to Ceph for his response to my case day 1.
Most improved - Cats, no question there.
WTF? Blurry and his fail claim
Thanks Grey I really enjoyed the game. I think the lesson for town in this game is that everyone needs to participate and evaluate on their own. There were times where the only people questioning my read were scum 
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On January 15 2012 12:02 gonzaw wrote:Show nested quote +On January 15 2012 11:25 Tunkeg wrote:
The mother of all fuck ups
Blurry claimed when he shouldn't and that led to his death and probs death, which instead may have led to a confirmed DT read on Gonz. I'd like to point something out about it. First, yes, it was a bad claim. However, Blurry was very unlucky. First, there was a RBer, which means the RBer (yours truly ) could RB him, and basicly make him lynched the next day (had Blurry survived the lynch). Second, if Prob had thought there was a RBer, then he wouldn't have pushed for Blurry's lynch, and may even have believed him (when Blurry was eventually RBed). This was less bad play from Prob and Blurry, and I think better play from scum that decided not to RB both nights. EDIT: Also, if Blurry wasn't lynched (and there was a NL), I don't know if Prob would have suspected I was scum at that point. I think he would have checked Paper or Blurry perhaps (so he would really know if there is a RBer or not). EDIT: Show nested quote +On January 15 2012 11:59 Jitsu wrote:
It's usually not revealed who the coaches we're coaching, AFAIK You don't? >_> <_<
Yeah, prior to the Blurry claim I was tossing up between Paper and Cephiro. There were some things he said that didn't sound right and I knew if he was scum we were fucked. Plus if he was town I could add him to Bk and then by process of elimination lynch you. Of course, Blurry claimed and my mind went into WTF mode.
What do people think of my reasoning for going after Blurry. I was fairly certain there were no rolebockers and even if there were, if we let Blurry live, scum could roleblock him and shoot me. That would almost certainly lead to a Blurry miss-lynch and a win for scum. Plus nobody was 100% on the lynch target besides Blurry. So in essence if we let Blurry live and miss-lynched that night, scum would win anyway. My hope was to appear so scummy and be a target that I might survive.
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On January 15 2012 12:12 Probulous wrote:First off thanks to Palmar. He answered my questions with simple clear answers. Timezone was difficult but I got what I asked for. Secondly, FUCK YOU CEPHIRO I've said it before, if you were scum you deserved the win. I really feel town was screwed by having a scum team that just vastly outplayed the majority of the town. Tunk and Jitsu (especially) played really well but as always the good die young. If you look at the rest of the days there was me against Gonzaw and Cephiro. Cats played really well in the end, but had no credit. Blurry lurked and then WTF claimed, the rest of town provided almost nothing. Knowing that Cephiro was scum makes me feel good about my reads. If Ceph wasn't scum then my first day reads were all wrong! My DT checks were pretty spot on though, Sheth and Gonzaw were red so I am happy with that. But by far my best play I feel was changing my read on Cats. It is really hard to go back and change something that you are sure of but in this case it was the right thing to do. As for scum you played very well, it is kind of ironic that the only reason I looked at Sheth night one was cause of Ceph but it bought him town cred with me. His noticing of Blurry's breadcrumbs was also brilliant play. Gonz, you played well but your over aggressive responses made it very clear to me you were scum. Of course it didn't matter because I died but if they others had read over my case it would have been clear. So awards MVP - Town goes to Jitsu, scum goes to Ceph for his response to my case day 1. Most improved - Cats, no question there. WTF? Blurry and his fail claim Thanks Grey I really enjoyed the game. I think the lesson for town in this game is that everyone needs to participate and evaluate on their own. There were times where the only people questioning my read were scum
Well, to be honest I did in fact believe your case against me was based on confirmation bias >_>
Also, appearing scummy on N3 onwards wasn't a problem to me.
In fact, it was what I wanted, since it would take pressure off Ceph, and lead us to victory, whether I was lynched or not.
Also yeah, cats improved a lot.
Too bad (or thank god for us >_> ) that his early play punished him later on.
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EPT
