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On November 18 2011 12:00 Forumite wrote:
WBG, I´d take a look at players who were on only one of the lynches, players who posted that both were scummy, but only voted on one of them, players who had allready gotten one Townie killed and didn´t want to attract too much attention by voting on two. Players who hang back and blame others for the mislynches. Those who voted for both victims look bad, but I think they look like bad Townies. That´s my opinion at least, that Scum are the ones avoiding the second lynch. If they dared to lynch sinani, then it wouldn´t have taken so long to get those final votes.
A gem of logic!
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On November 18 2011 10:58 wherebugsgo wrote:
In addition, Lanaia's anti-vote on him meant that we NEEDED to lynch one of them. There was no choice, we need the information. If one of them is scum the other is almost guaranteed to be scum, simply because an anti-vote on day 1 like that is incredibly scummy. Notice how Lanaia has had almost no thread presence since then. If kenpachi flips scum then this is probably why. She excused herself and said sorry and now has had no influence on town concerns at all.
One: I had class all day today. Two: my teachers announced exams after this game started so I've been studying as well.
Indeed it's a shame they were both town. I really did not expect sinani to be town.
Kenpachi's role was kinda cool.
And right now, I'm not sure what to say. It's been a while since I last played on TL and don't really know what to talk about at night.
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It's alright, at this point I think you're more town than at least 6 other people. You haven't done anything overtly scummy and what you did is a mistake any townie could make.
We need to think about how we are going to approach tomorrow. I think we should consolidate for the first half of tomorrow. Let's focus and build cases on people. None of that "I'm going to randomly vote people to get reactions" business. In the second half we begin focusing on the best cases and voting those.
I will be very suspicious of anyone who decides to piss away tomorrow again the same way we did today. We cannot afford to lynch multiple townies, and we must lynch at least one of the people like Nisani who today did nothing but randomly voted people for no reason and seeded chaos in the thread.
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Oh, please. How did I cause chaos?
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Well that sucks, can we lynch Drazerk now?
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Drazerk is not as big a priority as Nisani or chaoser.
I would be okay with lynching him if it wasn't for the fact that other scummy players are fine with lynching him, which probably means he's not scum. On the other hand, nisani and chaoser have deliberately avoided mentioning each other. That's pretty strange.
Of course we can't make a connection until one of them flips. One of them needs to flip.
I hope the vigilantes do their job.
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Started re-reading the thread, only had time to get to ~page 35, but I figured I'd leave my thoughts so far before I go for now. Upon re-reading I think Lemonwalrus and Cyber_Cheese need a closer looking at, and would encourage everyone to do so.
I still don't like Drazerk, and he seems dead-set on convincing us he will be useless whether he is town or scum. Not sure how much effort should be spent on him, but I'd like him to end up dead sooner rather than later.
I also don't like the looks of LSB too much, but he is currently exceeding 24 hours without posting, so I don't see the point of pursuing something there unless he comes back before getting mod-killed.
Regarding Nisani, this is the only post of his I really dislike:
Just read through the thread. A lot of shit is going down.
But most of it is irrelevant. Kenpachi is not irrelevant. He should die.
##Vote: Kenpachi Other than that I don't see anything that makes me want to get my pitchfork out.
I am undecided on WBG, Chaoser, and Palmar as of right now, but would not be surprised if one of the three is scum. However, I would be surprised if more than one of them is.
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I never really looked at drazerk. Did someone do an analysis on him? Shame kenpachi get's the cool role. Maybe if he gave up the I'm useless card I wouldn't be so hard on him. At least lanaia is looking pretty good as a townie, and I don't see mafia really going out of their way to kill her, so her anti-vote might prove useful later. I think she is capable of good thoguhts IIRC.
After kenpachi flipped town, I'm not really seeing chaoser as scum. Still sold on prphlz. There are other some individuals that I guess comes down to me to analyze. I don't think I'm doing anything saturday so if I survive I'll burn some time doing that.
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I did some analysis on drazerk on page 43 if you're interested. I think he would have been a better lynch than sinani but we can't change that, hopefully tomorow works out better for us.
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Palmar is Mafia
Is working is magic :D
As I have repeated many many times, one of the hardest things to do in mafia is to make analysis against a townie.
If your not going to do this you have to A) Lurk, B) Bandwagon C) Not say anything relevant
Note what these three are? What you guys think are the biggest 'tells' in mafia. ^^
The biggest trap most mafia members fall into is that they force analysis, because they have to. They need to convince the town that a fellow townie is mafia. And in order to do this, they force analysis.
There are a few characteristics of forced analysis
1) Warping people's words- it's much easier to argue against "I shot the sheriff" than "I protected the sheriff and that's why KP was lowered"
2) Making logical fallacies- These are unconscious. When you desperately attempt to prove someone to be mafia, you start making bad/erronious connections.
3) Go after easy targets- it's easy to hide amongst a crowd. This is not necessarily true for forced analysis.
Thesis: Palmar's little insight rests solely on logical fallacies, which are made because he is forcing analysis. Therefore Palmar is mafia.
On November 16 2011 21:49 Palmar wrote:
First off, we should establish that chaoser is both analytical and critical as town. His play this game starkly contrasts that idea. He is throwing accusations and votes both left and right without actually doing much to back them up. Now, this leads us to think what would make chaoser throw his votes around like this.
The only sensible reason to do that as town is to apply pressure, but when you are the one being pressured it's actually not beneficial to do this, because no one is going to listen to you anyway. The optimal town play in this situation is to try as hard as you can to build reputation for people to listen to you for. However, chaoser seems not even slightly interested in raising his status in the game, feeling pretty comfortable being not listened to at all. Something only scum is interested in.
First of all, this post contains two big logical fallacies. Metagaming and No True Scotsman
1) Metagaming- Remember, this game is played online. Unlike RL mafia, where 'tells' or 'nerves' get in the way, play style between town and mafia is very hard to distinguish. If you want to make comparisons it requires a lot of analysis and supporting claims. I cannot think of a way to be able to realistically call anyone's meta. Palmar is brushing over and claiming that chaoser is "analytical and critical as town" and never such as mafia. [spoiler]I'm not saying that metagaming is invalid, but what I am saying is that Palmar hasn't shown that this is Chaoser's true metagame. I've played with Chaoser many times and I highly doubt that this is anywhere close to Chaoser's true metagame[spoiler]
2)No True Scotsman Explination- Palmar is theorizing what optimal town play and blaming Chaoser for not following it. Noone does optimal town play. People have things called 'playstyles' and 'personalities' + Show Spoiler +If I did, I wouldn't be sick and I'd be spamming the thread
Palmar actually explains No True Scotsman the best
On November 17 2011 09:51 Palmar wrote:
Also, holy shit it really fucking bothers me that you guys dare complain about bad towns. Why am I not getting lynched? Why is WBG or Bum or Coag not getting lynched? It's got nothing to do with town, it's got everything to do with your own play. Man up and own your mistakes. We all fuck up.
So he's being hypocritical right off the bat too
This one is particularly interesting. First off, we have to understand how sinani206 works to see if this is legit. Remember, sinani206 hasn't got the greatest track record as town or scum, but he does have his tells like everyone else. This little vote he placed on chaoser seems to be pretty genuine. Like he's not pro enough as scum to realize that doing something like that with his meta as scum is excellent play, and thus the simplest explanation is that sinani206 is town.
chaoser should have understood this, yet he directly OMGUS votes sinani206, even gloating about the fact he's voting multiple people.
Again, Meta Fallocies, and a quick town tell on sinani who up to the point of Palmar's post did not post anything substantial. I don't know how Palmar can be 100% sure that Sinani is town but even if it is true (And we ignore the fact that Palmar is using s**y scumtells) it leads us to the next fallacy
Anyone who Votes for a Town is Mafia- I hope I don't have to explain why this is wrong.
Show nested quote +On November 15 2011 22:23 chaoser wrote:On November 15 2011 13:29 Kenpachi wrote:
real long day ok.
hi i am Kenpachi and i am a Townie
welcome to TL mafia to those who are just starting and i hope you have a good time here.
We are the 99% I am also green townie <3 LAL is stupid This is chaoser soft-claiming a power-role. No reason to do it unless you're scum. If you can't understand how he's soft-claiming a power role, well... you deserve to be punched. So yeah, let's kill that guy.
Palmar is trying to analyze spam. This is going too far. If your trying to put words into someone's mouth and analyze spam you are forcing analysis.
On November 17 2011 07:51 Palmar wrote:
We're lynching Lanaia no matter what. What she did is extremely poor play on day 1. If you're gonna do something like that, why not take it up with town? You must've known the anti-vote would show up anyway, so you're basically outed as soon as yo use it.
Basically, that play is so bad for town that I see no reason to not lynch her.
As for Kenpachi, well, his sole defense i "town is bad" which is well... fair. But remember, if you are the one who doesn't manage to argue your way out of lynch, both as town and scum, you are actually the worst person of all those bads you're complaining about.
Without exception, the player who gets lynched day 1 is the worst player in the game.
1) No true Scottsman
2) His argument is essentially, Kenpachi is scum so Lania is scum. This is another fallocy, since at the time Kenpachi hasn't flipped.
And that's why Palmar was so quick to push a day 1 lynch.
On November 17 2011 20:13 Palmar wrote:Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 19:55 Tyrran wrote:
Ouch, Palmar post that he likes me, and i destroy him with my very next post. Sorry for that ^^'.
I still stand by my analysis tho. You actually made me reconsider the stance on Lanaia. I just posted a huge post to see you attacking me 
Oh looks like Palmar gets out once he realizes Lania is actually going to be lynched. What happened to 'sticking to your beliefs' and 'definatly going to lynch her' now
TLDR: Palmar is mafia because his case on Chaoser was horrible and consisted only of logical fallacies.
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Any bets on whether or not I survive the night?
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On November 18 2011 16:03 HarbingerOfDoom wrote:Started re-reading the thread, only had time to get to ~page 35, but I figured I'd leave my thoughts so far before I go for now. Upon re-reading I think Lemonwalrus and Cyber_Cheese need a closer looking at, and would encourage everyone to do so. I still don't like Drazerk, and he seems dead-set on convincing us he will be useless whether he is town or scum. Not sure how much effort should be spent on him, but I'd like him to end up dead sooner rather than later. I also don't like the looks of LSB too much, but he is currently exceeding 24 hours without posting, so I don't see the point of pursuing something there unless he comes back before getting mod-killed. Regarding Nisani, this is the only post of his I really dislike: Show nested quote +Just read through the thread. A lot of shit is going down.
But most of it is irrelevant. Kenpachi is not irrelevant. He should die.
##Vote: Kenpachi Other than that I don't see anything that makes me want to get my pitchfork out. I am undecided on WBG, Chaoser, and Palmar as of right now, but would not be surprised if one of the three is scum. However, I would be surprised if more than one of them is.
Outing to the whole thread who you're undecided on for no particular reason is completely useless and is actually probably detrimental.
Good scum will see that and jump all over it, using your indecisiveness to push their agenda without you even knowing they're modifying your opinions. This is particularly dangerous if a lot of people share your views and it is apparent to scum.
Instead, in order to give yourself better reads of people you find to be on the fence, make a case on someone and then watch your targets react to that case. Good townies deal on a need to know basis, and unless you think you're going to die there's no point in pushing all your reads into the thread all at once.
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On November 18 2011 17:32 LSB wrote:
Any bets on whether or not I survive the night?
+ Show Spoiler +We should totally open a betting site for Mafia games. It would make it so much more fun if you are not playing the game. Who would pull a Savior first tho...
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On November 18 2011 17:32 LSB wrote:Palmar is MafiaIs working is magic :DAs I have repeated many many times, one of the hardest things to do in mafia is to make analysis against a townie. If your not going to do this you have to A) Lurk, B) Bandwagon C) Not say anything relevant Note what these three are? What you guys think are the biggest 'tells' in mafia. ^^ The biggest trap most mafia members fall into is that they force analysis, because they have to. They need to convince the town that a fellow townie is mafia. And in order to do this, they force analysis. There are a few characteristics of forced analysis 1) Warping people's words- it's much easier to argue against "I shot the sheriff" than "I protected the sheriff and that's why KP was lowered" 2) Making logical fallacies- These are unconscious. When you desperately attempt to prove someone to be mafia, you start making bad/erronious connections. 3) Go after easy targets- it's easy to hide amongst a crowd. This is not necessarily true for forced analysis. Thesis: Palmar's little insight rests solely on logical fallacies, which are made because he is forcing analysis. Therefore Palmar is mafia. Show nested quote +On November 16 2011 21:49 Palmar wrote:
First off, we should establish that chaoser is both analytical and critical as town. His play this game starkly contrasts that idea. He is throwing accusations and votes both left and right without actually doing much to back them up. Now, this leads us to think what would make chaoser throw his votes around like this.
The only sensible reason to do that as town is to apply pressure, but when you are the one being pressured it's actually not beneficial to do this, because no one is going to listen to you anyway. The optimal town play in this situation is to try as hard as you can to build reputation for people to listen to you for. However, chaoser seems not even slightly interested in raising his status in the game, feeling pretty comfortable being not listened to at all. Something only scum is interested in. First of all, this post contains two big logical fallacies. Metagaming and No True Scotsman 1) Metagaming- Remember, this game is played online. Unlike RL mafia, where 'tells' or 'nerves' get in the way, play style between town and mafia is very hard to distinguish. If you want to make comparisons it requires a lot of analysis and supporting claims. I cannot think of a way to be able to realistically call anyone's meta. Palmar is brushing over and claiming that chaoser is "analytical and critical as town" and never such as mafia. [spoiler]I'm not saying that metagaming is invalid, but what I am saying is that Palmar hasn't shown that this is Chaoser's true metagame. I've played with Chaoser many times and I highly doubt that this is anywhere close to Chaoser's true metagame[spoiler] 2)No True Scotsman Explination- Palmar is theorizing what optimal town play and blaming Chaoser for not following it. Noone does optimal town play. People have things called 'playstyles' and 'personalities' + Show Spoiler +If I did, I wouldn't be sick and I'd be spamming the thread Palmar actually explains No True Scotsman the best Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 09:51 Palmar wrote:
Also, holy shit it really fucking bothers me that you guys dare complain about bad towns. Why am I not getting lynched? Why is WBG or Bum or Coag not getting lynched? It's got nothing to do with town, it's got everything to do with your own play. Man up and own your mistakes. We all fuck up. So he's being hypocritical right off the bat too Show nested quote +This one is particularly interesting. First off, we have to understand how sinani206 works to see if this is legit. Remember, sinani206 hasn't got the greatest track record as town or scum, but he does have his tells like everyone else. This little vote he placed on chaoser seems to be pretty genuine. Like he's not pro enough as scum to realize that doing something like that with his meta as scum is excellent play, and thus the simplest explanation is that sinani206 is town.
chaoser should have understood this, yet he directly OMGUS votes sinani206, even gloating about the fact he's voting multiple people. Again, Meta Fallocies, and a quick town tell on sinani who up to the point of Palmar's post did not post anything substantial. I don't know how Palmar can be 100% sure that Sinani is town but even if it is true (And we ignore the fact that Palmar is using s**y scumtells) it leads us to the next fallacy Anyone who Votes for a Town is Mafia- I hope I don't have to explain why this is wrong. Show nested quote +On November 15 2011 22:23 chaoser wrote:On November 15 2011 13:29 Kenpachi wrote:
real long day ok.
hi i am Kenpachi and i am a Townie
welcome to TL mafia to those who are just starting and i hope you have a good time here.
We are the 99% I am also green townie <3 LAL is stupid This is chaoser soft-claiming a power-role. No reason to do it unless you're scum. If you can't understand how he's soft-claiming a power role, well... you deserve to be punched. So yeah, let's kill that guy. Palmar is trying to analyze spam. This is going too far. If your trying to put words into someone's mouth and analyze spam you are forcing analysis. Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 07:51 Palmar wrote:
We're lynching Lanaia no matter what. What she did is extremely poor play on day 1. If you're gonna do something like that, why not take it up with town? You must've known the anti-vote would show up anyway, so you're basically outed as soon as yo use it.
Basically, that play is so bad for town that I see no reason to not lynch her.
As for Kenpachi, well, his sole defense i "town is bad" which is well... fair. But remember, if you are the one who doesn't manage to argue your way out of lynch, both as town and scum, you are actually the worst person of all those bads you're complaining about.
Without exception, the player who gets lynched day 1 is the worst player in the game. 1) No true Scottsman 2) His argument is essentially, Kenpachi is scum so Lania is scum. This is another fallocy, since at the time Kenpachi hasn't flipped. And that's why Palmar was so quick to push a day 1 lynch. Show nested quote +On November 17 2011 20:13 Palmar wrote:On November 17 2011 19:55 Tyrran wrote:
Ouch, Palmar post that he likes me, and i destroy him with my very next post. Sorry for that ^^'.
I still stand by my analysis tho. You actually made me reconsider the stance on Lanaia. I just posted a huge post to see you attacking me Oh looks like Palmar gets out once he realizes Lania is actually going to be lynched. What happened to 'sticking to your beliefs' and 'definatly going to lynch her' now TLDR: Palmar is mafia because his case on Chaoser was horrible and consisted only of logical fallacies.
LSB your activity levels concern me.
Why is Palmar scum for his analysis being bad, but chaoser is not because his analysis was even shittier?
Remember, chaoser was the biggest force driving people to vote sinani. People may not realize this, but he pretty much single handedly led town to lynch someone they shouldn't have been lynching. So why is it that you picked Palmar and not chaoser?
What makes chaoser's cases better than Palmar's?
Why are you not concerned about a player like Nisani, who has multiple shitty cases? Hardest part of playing scum is making cases, according to you. Yet, you're not focusing at all on the people who straight up failed to come up with cases, instead throwing their votes and then yelling over and over to get people to listen to them.
Sadly their voices were so loud that these sheep actually followed them.
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I haven't analysed on Chaoser/Nisani yet so I can't give you a definite answer and will not comment on their play. But you must remember a few things
1) Lynches are more often than not Townie-Townie. Many games have been lost because Day 1 Mislynch, Day 2 Go after the person who pushed the Day 1 lynch, and hit a mislynch
2) Just because there are people who look like scum doesn't mean we should ignore Palmar.
3) I didn't say that Palmar's analysis is bad. I said his analysis is forced. There is a crucial difference.
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4) I like 
5) I am sad because I don't have
6) I entertain myself with ordered lists
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On November 18 2011 17:45 LSB wrote:
I haven't analysed on Chaoser/Nisani yet so I can't give you a definite answer and will not comment on their play. But you must remember a few things
1) Lynches are more often than not Townie-Townie. Many games have been lost because Day 1 Mislynch, Day 2 Go after the person who pushed the Day 1 lynch, and hit a mislynch
2) Just because there are people who look like scum doesn't mean we should ignore Palmar.
3) I didn't say that Palmar's analysis is bad. I said his analysis is forced. There is a crucial difference.
You say it's forced but you don't really show how.
How much have you played with Palmar in the past?
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I mean honestly, you say forced analysis uses bad logic. By definition, so does bad analysis.
Your entire argument about Palmar can't discern bad analysis from forced analysis, yet you say there's some sort of crucial difference.
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On November 18 2011 17:32 LSB wrote:
Any bets on whether or not I survive the night?
Actually, mafia killing you would only confirm all your theory, unless they now that and will kill you because Palmar is not mafia, unless they think we know that and kill you so that we think palmar is not mafia ... DAMN YOU WIFOM !
Coming back to more serious matter, I think one of the biggest implication of LSB case against Palmar is that chaoser is NOT mafia ( look at how chaoser and palmar argued and voted against each other). Note that it is also possible that both are town.
I also dont trust Palmar. I dont like the fact that I instantly became one of his favored player even tho I fucked as bad a every one during day 1.But i dont have a solid case against him as LSB did. I have a lot of work today, so i probably wont be able to post before tonight.
Meanwhile, I would love if LSB could turn his attention to Choaser, and analyse him. WBG, you should do the same regarding Palmar. Lets use the nigth to build the two cases, and we will choose during day 1.
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On November 18 2011 18:02 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On November 18 2011 17:45 LSB wrote:
I haven't analysed on Chaoser/Nisani yet so I can't give you a definite answer and will not comment on their play. But you must remember a few things
1) Lynches are more often than not Townie-Townie. Many games have been lost because Day 1 Mislynch, Day 2 Go after the person who pushed the Day 1 lynch, and hit a mislynch
2) Just because there are people who look like scum doesn't mean we should ignore Palmar.
3) I didn't say that Palmar's analysis is bad. I said his analysis is forced. There is a crucial difference. You say it's forced but you don't really show how.
x.x
Read the first few paragraphs again...
How much have you played with Palmar in the past?
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=252145
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EPT
