I'm going to get my ass killed in day 1 again, no doubt about that.
Newbie Mini Mafia
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Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
I'm going to get my ass killed in day 1 again, no doubt about that. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
No not you! I was referring to the last Newbie Game where I was killed N1 by being the only guy poking everyone to speak. On October 25 2011 21:33 kitaman27 wrote: Sorry Ciryandor, 3 games or less requirement. I think you've graduated from newbie land Oh, DAMN, I thought 3 games meant 3 games completed (WaW+LotR+last Newbie) or less, i.e. after this mini I'd be completely out of newbie land; turns out it's for people with 0-2 games finished. Then /out for me if that's the case. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
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Ciryandor
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Ciryandor
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Ciryandor
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1. risk.nuke 2. HarbingerOfDoom 3. Toadesstern 4. Zanfada 5. xsksc 6. Ciryandor 7. hacklebeast 8. Skrammen 9. hyshes 10. Drem903 11. IMABUNNEH 12. Chocolate Toad, Zan, I've played with the both of you before, so you probably have a good idea of how town should play. Town will sink like the last time if people don't start talking. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
1. risk.nuke 3. Toadesstern 7. hacklebeast 8. Skrammen 9. hyshes 11. IMABUNNEH 12. Chocolate Okay, let's start with this, we've got 5 of 12 already in the thread and generally just shooting the breeze. HoD, it's generally worth prodding people on the first day to be active so later days have enough information/statements for Town to work with and understand if one is being helpful to town or not. Sometimes it can be attributed to jitters or unfamiliarity with opponents, and people like to read on to that. This is why I want to track who's talked already. Zanfada is doing it right, pressuring people to talk and see if they're alive and well. He's played with me before and knows the value of pushing people. :p Hacklebeast seems to be a good choice, as he's an active forumer and ought to know we've started. Toad where are you? I expect you to start talking as well, especially given that you were DT then and couldn't really poke your head above the water so much, but had a nice game plan. Drem and xsksc, haha that's a nice way of getting some activity up. Let's look at other people now, we have more inactives to bear down on. In the same vein can we look at Chocolate? I like him/her/it. Yummy, definitely. Can we have a voting thread opened, or are we all voting here? | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 30 2011 18:41 Toadesstern wrote: As mentioned 2 pages earlier, my father turned 60 yesterday and I obviously had to stay at the party. Now I'm kinda back! Sooooo guyses, lets get talking. I like the fact that zanfada is posting this game. Last game there was very little until lylo, which was too late so that's awesome. Good good, let's prod Chocolate until he melts from the spotlight or hardens up and talks to us. LOLOLO | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 30 2011 20:36 IMABUNNEH wrote: Oops, ended up in bed early last night, game started 2am EU time which I'd normally be awake for :x Anyway I can't believe all those bronies died D= I~ don't know if I want to live in a place where someone would hurt ponies You're a bunneh, you're probably next after bronies. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 30 2011 22:10 Toadesstern wrote: ciry desperatly trying to not die on day1 this time Well, look where that brought town... but really, if we want town to get this game won we have to be on the ball. Just because everyone has chimed in as being present doesn't excuse you from being non-contributing in this game; so let's start digging in. Skrammen, just saying good day to all isn't enough yet, as Drem had already marked out xsksc randomly for his name. What do you think of this? Also, what about risk.nuke's reaction to Toadesstern's promptings for activity? Chocolate and hyshes, why no commentary on Hacklebeast's response to Zanfada's early pressure? Do you think it's warranted to react to early pressure in that way? Also, the same thing applies to IMABUNNEH, what are your views on three people getting focused on early? So we have three people who've pointed out three other guys for one of any sort of random reasons, and all of them have given some sort of reaction already. We already have something to work with here, and maybe a vote or two on them if you think their reaction or push is suspicious enough in your eyes. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 31 2011 01:01 Chocolate wrote: Posts for posting's sake is an empty phrase. Posts for the sake of truth, posts for the sake of the good and the beautiful, those are the posts that I am searching for. But seriously toad is looking a little suspicious. The people that would benefit the most from knowing who are dt/medic are the mafia. For the town, it's best if nobody knows, to present a difficult target. Not necessarily. Being active means that if you're scum, you have more chances of doing a scumslip because you either let something about the set-up or the players themselves be known, or that you tie yourself to fellow players and end up compromising part of your team with how you either defend them or not engage with them at all. In any case, if you think that Toad really is scummy, as I personally don't, given that I've played with him before and this is consistent with the play he's done, put it where your words are and vote him. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted? If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider. From the GM post: 5. This game follows Extended Majority Lynch Rules. Majority = #of players remaining in the game/2) (rounded down) + 1. Unlike in traditional majority lynch, the lynch is NOT decided the moment majority is reached. Instead, only the final vote count matters. If there is no majority at the deadline, the day ends with a no lynch. Non-voters will be modkilled for failure to vote. You can change your vote if you wish to do so. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
So I'll summarize what we have: Lots of suspicion (from HoD, risk, xsksc, Chocolate, hyshes) on Toad for prompting productive activity ; which was essentially what I was doing as well. Some suspicion on Zanfada as well (from hyshes and Chocolate), admittedly minor, for doing lots of "filler talk". A bit of shifty eyes on me for basically posting a rule answering a green-lined post, which was interpreted as defending a player. What's interesting to me is why hyshes and Chocolate have flip-flopped between Zanfada and Toadesstern without committing to one of the two as their vote. If you really want to pressure them or think they're suspicious enough, then go and cast a vote. I personally have a good vote that I want to expound on right now, but I want to see more posting from that person before I cast it, as it may yield more information on him. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 31 2011 14:07 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: The only person I have called out my suspicion on is Skrammen. Since he hasn't said anything since then, I remain suspicious of him. Bunneh, Drem, and Skraamen have also mentioned Zanfada as someone to watch. I find it interesting that you miss out on all of those as well as call the suspicion on him minor. However, you seem to be genuinely trying to create discussion, so try to be more accurate with your summaries. Their relevant quotes: + Show Spoiler + Fron Bunneh: Yeah. Maybe they were just trying to get the ball rolling, or maybe they were trying to start people recieving flak early on. I'd go out on a limb and put odds on at least one of them being scum. From Drem: Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now. From Skraamen: 4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think. All that being said, I would like to hear more from xsksc, Drem, hacklebeast, risk.nuke, and Skrammen. All of these players have been relatively quiet now and I would like to hear what their current scum reads/suspicions are. I didn't specifically miss out on them, but what I was getting at is that compared to the FoS pointed to Toad, Zanfada's relative exposure, and the corresponding nitpicks that come with it, are lesser and were made by the people I highlighted. Do note that I don't usually use filters when I go through posts, because it loses a lot of the context; but filtering does highlight player slips when it happens. In this case, I'm trying to narrow down on whether Zanfada's posts are just his regular filler posts like his last game, or if he's being non-committal, but I'd like to also highlight Chocolate and hyshes' posts for being wishy-washy about who they want to vote for, because being active yet not putting on vote pressure is bad form; it lets players get away with less reasons for someone to not pile on them. As you said, sooner or later we have to choose someone to lynch. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 01 2011 00:55 Toadesstern wrote: that first sentence just made no sense, fixed it and hopefully it's clear what my intention was. It's the time of day for most people. I'm about to sleep, so I'll miss around 8 hours of discussion, but I feel that Skrammen has been able to coast by the most, and next to that would be Drem903. Putting pressure on him and explaining my vote to follow: ## Vote Skrammen Skrammen's first game post is a greeting, nothing wrong there, but it's fluff to make sure he doesn't get modkilled. On October 31 2011 05:40 Skrammen wrote: 4 hours into the game and you go on and try to stir some discussion up? He wasnt the only one who had said nothing up to that point, why did you choose him? It seems a little bit... Dodgy to use a vote to pressure someone into talking more so soon I think. And just a head's up: Since we have people from both sides of the pond in this game there is bound to be somewhat of a delay in answers and people might be working or sleeping when some discussions takes place. We should be somewhat tolerant of this, but obviously 24 hours of no posting is not good. Now here he looks at Zanfada's early pressure and thinks it's scummy to randomly highlight someone, when it's actually good town play to be non-discriminating; then proceeds to state the obvious that certain conversation delays are going to happen simply because of timezones. On October 31 2011 23:10 Skrammen wrote: Ah. Well, you see I was only trying to clarify some things so they are clear. I did not however, encourage it. + Show Spoiler + The only people that benefit from a delayed discussion is obviously the mafia, they'd rather it never happen. Also, while his statement is true, I think it was fairly obvious to most people, and scum always like to have an excuse to fall back on. I think we both might be talking without saying anything now; both of these things are quite obvious, yet we both had to say it. What I said was just that; A head's up just in case people did not know. Honestly I think this is pretty bad grounds for accusations. I still maintain that a vote 4 hours into the game is pretty suspicious, but not enough to be convinced he is red. + Show Spoiler + I can take my vote back at any time. The vote was just there to promote talking which it did just that. What was alot more interesting was Toad's post and how it was received. I personally think blues should post and help the town or they stand out to mafia and playing safe and become much better targets. Also mafia rarely mention blues for the simple fact that it makes them look more like mafia hunting for blues with any mention of blues. The same goes for blues themselves, they want to hide with town and do their job. I think Toad was just trying to prevent what happened last game to happen this game. However his post doesn't say anything more then "post guys" which doesn't further along any conversation it just increase his post count which in my opinion is all mafia try to do for the first day. On October 30 2011 22:54 hacklebeast wrote: Show nested quote + Unnecessarily trying to start a town panic? Baseless accusing people that, under your own admission, have no evidence against? Sounds like very mafia things to do. I'm not going to go so far as to cast my vote yet, but I'm watching you. Besides, I could never have committed the crime. Gmarshal I could take or leave, but killing ponies? I don't have it in me to take out something this lovable. I wasn't starting a town panic, though it seems to have caused you to panic a little. Your response to my vote seems to be an emotional plea involving ponies and a FOS but little more then that. It seems as if you are trying to not draw any sort of attention to yourself even after a vote has already been placed on you. Normally I would take this as a scum tell but it seems more like a newbie tell then a mafia at this point. Then there is Ciryandor, he defended me and my baseless attack on someone. The only time I usually am defended is when scum are trying to buddy up with me. Or since he has played a few games he is just trying to let newbies know what I was doing. Still FOS for now. This is his answer to why he did it, and to be honest, it worked, he got stuff going which is good. I will be keeping an eye out, but at this point his reasoning seems good enough for me. As you said earlier, delaying discussion is indicative of scummy behaviour, or perhaps it might not be? An elaborate ruse? Here in this post he's very much guilty of pointing out something that works towards the scum-team's advantage, and that is to have fluff conversations regarding people who merit suspicion, but not applying enough pressure for him to actually do a vote. Three posts, two on a very weak FoS, just enough to evade proper scrutiny. I think this is worth my vote. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On October 30 2011 11:27 Drem903 wrote: Whoever killed GMarshal must hate friendship, quite a bit.. and ponies. He is probably the worst type of scum to ever exist. On October 30 2011 13:48 Drem903 wrote: using extensive analysis, and some complex theory. I have decided to blame xsksc for the murder, because his name is impossible to pronounce, I see a parallel with the last mini game, where scum wanted to jump the gun a bit using some very speculative reason to create an FoS on someone; but in this case this is tempered by the fact that he did not vote on xsksc. Then when he realizes nobody really bit his bait: On October 30 2011 15:39 Drem903 wrote: If you're telling the truth that you're name really is just a random assortment of levels, then i will no longer blame you. I had assumed that you were possessed by some kind of devil, hence the inhuman name. He plays it off as an attempt to stir conversation... On October 31 2011 00:53 Drem903 wrote: The thing with xsksc was pretty much just a joke to try and get the ball rolling. The only person that has really garnered any suspicion from me is bunneh, and that's only because his posts seem to be "posts for the sake of posting" rather than trying to really get anything dones. He only seems to post to try and appear active. Then goes on the offensive after someone does commit to a real vote on a person. On October 31 2011 01:19 Drem903 wrote: Are you able to change you're vote after you have voted? If you're not able to change you're vote, then we also have to be very suspicious of zanfada. We both randomly chose a person to try and encourage discussion, but he actually voted. If you can't change you're vote, then that seems suspicious to me, as he seems in a hurry to lynch someone (anyone). If you can change you're vote, then it's no big deal, but it's still something to consider. After that post, he basically leaves the suspicion on Zanfada, which by now looks good enough for other people to lynch. On October 31 2011 05:36 Drem903 wrote: Zanfada also has not posted at all since his initial accusation, so he should also be one to consider for now. I will let you judge on whether it's worth examining. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 01 2011 09:25 risk.nuke wrote: Why the wagon is on skrammen and on nobody else is because Ciryandor voted for him. Ciryandor have been trying to take a leading role and taking charge of town. Ciry have been tring to establish himself as one of the better players. And his been pretty pro-town. That's why this post is so suspicious because it's shit in and Ciry should know this. I know it's a shitty case, BUT I'm NOT very surprised people jumped on it, and that he's now the guy who's probably going to get lynched. Why? Because NOBODY has built a similar case profile for anyone else they want to lynch. People here are too scared of having a proper read-through of a player and impeaching them on it. Nobody has put together a summary of why they think Toadesstern or Zanfada or anyone else for that matter is a good lynch. Also, two of the six votes on im are from the guys who are most likely to be lynch targets if he wasn't there. That's self-preservation activity right there, and I can't blame them for doing that. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 02 2011 14:58 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Huh, that's not one of the top 3 I would have expected to be dead this morning. Well then, let's see what this means. Risk.nuke was the main proponent of the lynch toad campaign. Other than that he has called one of Ciry's posts suspicious, and he called a FOS on me awhile back. So, who benefits from risk's death? 1) Toad, it removes the most ardent supporter of his lynching. 2) Skrammen, risk defended Skrammen, him flipping town upon death gives more weight to risk's defense of Skrammen. It also discredits Toad, as Toad had risk highest on his scum list. Him being wrong about that lowers the worth of his word when he accuses others of being scum. 3) Bunneh, also defended Skrammen, and is therefore indirectly helped by risk's death, although only slightly. 4) Ciry, but only if Ciry was worried about risk becoming increasingly suspect of him. 5) Myself, but, again, only if I still thought risk was suspicious of me. 6) Lurkers, if neither Skrammen nor Toad is scum, killing somebody who has spent almost all his time talking about these two makes for an amazing kill. It practically guarantees we will continue to focus on them, giving mafia another day where they don't get lynched. I think it is clear that 1, 2, or 6 are the best candidates. 3, 4, and 5 mostly serve as potentially added bonuses, but certainly seem unlikely as main reasons. Also keep in mind, it is likely that the decision was made by scum before risk's long post before the bottom of page 17, and possibly before toad's as well. Very few people were around after those posts and prior to the night ending, and presumably scum would not leave the decision on who to shoot to a single member of their team. So here's my opinion on the matter, Toad tends to talk too much and to talk too freely for me to think he is scum. Skrammen tends to have rather empty posts, he has done no real analysis so far, and has engaged in a decent amount of OMGUS, as collected in the spoiler. + Show Spoiler + Note: These are all directed at different people Not once did you FoS on me, yet you preffered to vote me instead of zanfa. You also FoS'd Ciry but claim you didnt. You seem to be a bit everywhere, throwing suspicions left and right. To me, it appears like you are trying to be a bit of an instigator while saying very little of substance. You've posted nearly as little as I have done, and you say you vote me because of lack of activity? ##Vote Chocolate And now you have decided to vote me. Did you already make up your mind before I did my post? As far as I can tell, the only thing you seem to base your suspicion on is the fact that I made a point about timezones. I think you are over-analyzing things way too hard, stop looking for something who is not there. Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again? What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again. However, I, unfortunately, lack the conviction of our departed risk.nuke. I cannot say with 100% certainty that Skrammen is scum nor that Toad is Town. But here's what I think can help solve the problem, Toad and Skrammen, if you value your lives, please make a post of the following: 1) At least 2, preferably 3 people you think are scum 2) Explanations and some analysis of why you think they are scum 3) At least 2, preferably more, people you think are town, excluding yourself 4) Explanations of why you think they are town 5) What you think the goal of the risk.nuke shooting was If we have this information from both of them, I think we will have a much clearer picture of things. This post is getting long, but I feel the need to restate something from an earlier post of mine, thus far hacklebeast has gotten away with contributing a total of jack shit and that needs to change in a hurry. HoD, who did you expect to be dead and why? I personally expected me or Toad as the likeliest KP targets; me for having the gall to actually lay out the Skrammen lynch (and for scum to cover their vote tracks), and Toad because he would have looked like a clear town had risk not died, given his vigorous defense. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 02 2011 19:06 hyshes wrote: btw Ciryandor , are you going to spend post #2000 in a newbie mafia game? I didn't even notice. 2500 much better milestone IMO, then next is 5000. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 02 2011 19:30 hyshes wrote: that is what i said... i needed a vote to not get modkilled.. so i voted for the most suspicous person back then... I probably would have chosen for a lynch if i didn't miss the deadline... (but that is void now) So now, what say you? Do you have any idea who you think thought of targeting risk? | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
On November 03 2011 08:08 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Ciryandor, I would also like to hear what your current thoughts are when you get the chance. You've posted today, but none of your usual analysis yet. Just woke up and heading into work in a bit. I've got a big event that I'm staffing for so expect very very spotty presence from me until Saturday evening in Korea time. However, a quick read-through just makes me wonder why hyshes suddenly is screaming that drem and I are scum, simply because I didn't vote drem but I bothered to put together a big post-by-post of his activity in this game. I might have the time to dig through hyshes' posts one by one like I did with drem and Skrammen, but right now, drem's pinging very bad on my scum radar right now. Just as an example, drem's multiple mistakes in this game: On November 03 2011 03:25 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: First hyshes posts some shitty logic, then Drem doesn't realize that according to the OP there are: 3 of 3 MAFIA remaining We would have been left with 7 out of 10 people. What the fuck people? First he says we're going to be near LYLO territory if he had lynched someone. Then: On November 03 2011 03:35 Drem903 wrote: you know, if you guys want to lynch me for having shitty reading comprehension and screwing up the lynch day 1 for not realizing there were only 3 mafia.... then i would not blame you. We still have a much larger majority, so it's still not the worst situation. Also, even if we did succeed, all it would take was 2 other indecisive townies to vote differently (or vote with mafia unwittingly), to have nothing done today. Either way i could have screwed up much worse, and i do apologize for making the noobiest mistake possible. Dude, even if all the scum managed to convince two townies to vote for other people and they voted for the same person, if the whole town sees fit to try and lynch someone (6 townies), we still get a lynch, not another no-lynch day. I'm going to call him out on spreading FUD to people who don't count the lynches required. ## Vote Drem903 On that note, I still believe Skrammen's hardcore lurking worth looking at, and I can switch if people still believe Skrammen is more scummy based on my analysis and subsequent inactivity after I FOSed him then he barely escaped the lynch. Still, it does not remove the fact that what Drem did in spreading the second point I just highlighted reeks of scum play. | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
*I hate work, and it was a long weekend in the Philippines so I had a chance to be much more active on Day 1* | ||
Ciryandor
United States3735 Posts
As it stands, I'll start off with some thoughts on the guys who were already pushed for over the last two days: Skrammen has managed to escape scrutiny after nearly getting lynched, but being away from the spotlight has not helped his posting much: + Show Spoiler [Skrammen accusing Zanfada of inactivity] + On November 02 2011 02:08 Skrammen wrote: Just stating the obvious. Why say I might red if I am scum? Well, if I was, would I tell you? Are you desperatly trying to find a reason to get me lynched, again? What about you. So far, the only thing you have done is come in, instigate somthing on someone else, defend yourself when you got under pressure only to disappear again. And here you are again. He's done the same thing as well, try to start suspicion on Zanfada on Night 1, hoping someone picks it up Day 2 and gets him as a vote-leader; then: + Show Spoiler [Comment on hyshes and Vote choice] + On November 03 2011 10:37 Skrammen wrote: @Toadsstern The reason for this is that at that point, bunneh and risk were defending me, and thus me flipping would be bad news for them. Perhaps pretty redundant but still true. So lets think about it. Risk turned out to be green. If I were a red, how would I benefit from his death? He blocked my lynch, and he seemed pretty adamant about my affiliations. Now that he's gone it might reinforce any suspicions you have of me or toad, which is exactly what the scum wants, they want either of us lynched on day 2. Your vote for Drem earlier was a vote for the sake of voting, nothing solid to go on. Your unvote was also on very poor grounds. What I do think of this situation is that me and toad are just two townies pointing fingers at each other. I've not removed you from my list of people to look at, but at this point in time, I do not think you are a scum. You're pointing fingers at basically everyone in this game, which is either poor mafia play or good townie play. At this point its obvious that either one of us is a scum, or none of us. Lets look at the votes from the previous day: + Show Spoiler + 1. risk.nuke Toadesstern 2. HarbingerOfDoom Skrammen 3. Toadesstern Skrammen 4. Zanfada Skrammen 5. xsksc Skrammen 6. Ciryandor Skrammen 7. hacklebeast toadesstern 8. Skrammen Chocolate 9. hyshes Zanfada 10. Drem903 Zanfada 11. IMABUNNEH Toadesstern 12. Chocolate Skrammen I do not think there would be more than 1 mafia voting for me. Risk voted Toadsstern and we know he turned out to be town. Hacklebeast also voted for him, and so did bunneh. But what if we consider hyshes and drem's vote on Zanfada to be a safe-vote, so to speak? Or do you think this is very poor mafia play? At this point im not sure, but im pointing my finger on drem. + Show Spoiler + the people i've accused genuinely accused: Zanfada (not great reasoning, but it was only my first day, and he just seemed suspicious), SKrammen, YOU, hackle, and Toad. If we say that he would not accuse a fellow mafia, there is stil chocolate, bunneh, hyshes, ciry, xskcx and HoD left. Now, I believe there is somthing there worth investigating. + Show Spoiler + Of those 5 Toad and SK are the one's i've been constant about, and toad is the only one to make any real accusations against me. Zanfada i hold no real suspicion of anymore. Why not vote me? Seems like an easy lynch. It would probably give you some answers, too. But you knew that I would flip green, and when that happened you do not want to be on the list as a scum. + Show Spoiler + 1) His posts are long when a simple reply could answer the question (disregarding his analysis post on risk). As scum he's using longer posts to try and cover all possible points that could indicate him to be Mafia. Yes, or perhaps his excuse is a valid one. I made a comment about time-zones and it nearly got me lynched. + Show Spoiler + 2) The only person who would benefit from Risk's death is Toad. Now, my earlier statement on that was it could be a Mafia ploy to distract us, but that would also be immediately obvious so it could be a double trick (kill risk to get suspicion on toad, but we realize that and stop focusing on toad, and then toad is mafia so it was just a convoluted trap that could work). At this point it just gets into an infinite chain of back and forth. Now this is interesting. You're right - it could be a double trick. Or a triple trick, or whatever. I think getting rid of risk is too obvious, and I dont think it would benefit him. Sometimes there is not a hidden meaning, and sometimes the most obvious answer is the right one. But we can not be 100% certain untill we get some lynching done. At this time, I believe Drem to be a valid lynch. Another day without a lynch is getting us nowhere. ## Vote Drem903 Why does he meekly follow my initial vote explanation and yet highlight hyshes' name on his list of people he wants to look at? Also, a few posts after this, HoD probably picked up on his comment and posted a good accusation versus hyshes, leading to his emo-bandwagon into suicide. However to his credit: + Show Spoiler [Explains the situation on Hyshes] + On November 04 2011 01:06 Skrammen wrote: 2) I dont have much to add to my previous post where I laid out some of my thoughts and voted for Drem. But I thought that both hyshes and Drem were mafias, but Hyshes voted Drem earlier. Now, this could be a ploy or one of them is green. If we do lynch Hyshes and he flips green, I will look even closer at Drem. As for Hyshes, I honestly dont have much to add to your thoughts regarding the matter. One thing is that he did not vote for the easy lynch, because being on the list when I flipped green would spell bad news for him. I think this is a pretty good scumtell. If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them. And I do not like one bit his defeatist attitude. If you are green and you do this, you are only hurting the town. 4) So far it seems to me that both Bunneh and Ciry are townies because they are both very pro-town. Stirring up discussions and the like. To be very honest - I have not looked as much from this angle, I've been pretty busy both defending myself and trying to discern who are scums. So, unless hyshes makes a solid defence for himself I guess im with the bandwagon. ## Unvote Drem903 ## Vote Hyshes He does expound why hyshes after HoD's accusation and blow-up is a good lynch target in the first place. One could easily say that the "after the fact" helps him in that respect though. I'll expect him to look at drem as well, after that statement he said, so if he doesn't, I think I can call him out on that. Otherwise he hasn't really explored everyone else when it comes to their reliability. Toadesstern, Drem903 and Zanfada posting nitpicks are to follow; but if I get to Day 3 (Saturday Noon to Monday Noon), I'll post on everyone's activity by that point, including myself. TL;DR? READ IT, we're going to lose to inactivity and not poking everyone. | ||
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Awesome work (read terrible for them) by scum by not doing a hit, or great work by a medic predicting the day's hit. Or we could be seeing a mind-fuck from them, which considering how we haven't been able to get a proper vote going (Skrammen no-lynch and hyshes self-wagon), can only mean a good thing for town. I still can't do my nitpicking on everyone right now; but it will arrive on this Day. | ||
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On November 06 2011 00:39 Toadesstern wrote: also just to add this: I am aware of that post ciry made earlier and it looks to be town no question it's just that other than those big analyses he's completly skipping the talk. I know he said he's buisy but I just wanted to mention it. Just got home, I'm fucking burnt out, and I'm ready to get back in this game with a PBP worth a damn when I wake up. I'll let you guys judge for yourselves what you think once it's done; it's probably going to be half a page worth of per-person talk. I just wanted to make clear from you Toad, what are you expecting from me regarding this? Do you want me to weigh in on you looking like scum to most people? Or are you asking me why Skrammen ought to be the one lynched instead? | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. Toadesstern's post record is the longest of the surviving players, as he has also had the most suspicion on him. First and most important to everything that follows: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12086166 This, at its very core, is what triggered people's suspicions on Toad. An exhortation based off his prior game experience in a game where I died Day 1, and Zanfada voted wrong, resulting in a scum win. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12086776 A short comment on Ciryandor trying to survive beyond Day 1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087114 risk.nuke calls him out on it, and puts up a reasonable defense, utilizing the context of the situation as a valid point on why the post had to be made, and also on why it did not have that much content. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090779 He comments on Zanfada thinking defending other players for good play being done by Ciryandor is scummy, and also points to Chocolate to explain why such activity deserves to be called out on. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090911 Then he and Chocolate try to clear stuff with each other because of his double-barreled reply and end up summarizing the earlier post saying logically it should not be an issue anyway. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090991 As people are having communication issues with him, he tries to clear up who he wants to talk to after getting reminded by HoD. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12091077 Also, he keeps pushing on Chocolate for what he thinks of an FOS on Ciryandor, which Chocolate promptly responds to. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12091385 Then because he deems it a threat, votes on Chocolate, but unvotes after seeing nobody follow up on it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12095606 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12098372 Then he votes Skrammen as a way out for self-preservation purposes, which I can't blame him for, also pointing out that scum votes could already be in play. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12099437 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12100435 Then he points out that if town wants a lynch, they have to vote Skrammen based off the need for 7 votes, after Skrammen does a throwaway vote and xsksc puts a pressure vote, also doing further defense after risk highlights him looking band-wagonish. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12100635 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12101410 After risk highlights why he thinks Skrammen is a townie lynch, toad responds that it's not really an easy lynch, given that Zanfada and himself were already leading in suspicion when the Skrammen vote by Ciryandor came out. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12102654 After the no-lynch, he explains why the town has to determine which if any of them is guilty, as he wants the debate on who's clean among the two of them to not last too long; and says that unfairly accused townies often have to vigorously defend themselves as they do not have enough information to actually do counter-accusations except for the slight tells one normally finds on posts, finally blowing up on risk and Skrammen for being obstructionist. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12113265 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12117335 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12083997 His first post is the first vote of the game. This is actually decent play, as long as you avoid the label of being scum trying to get a fast mislynch going; which then takes us to mind-game territory. Then he now points out in his next post that Toad's post worked in increasing activity, but also was empty of any accusations on anyone. In the same post, he also responds to Hackle's counterpoint and says Ciryandor's defense was unwarranted. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090442 I'm not sure if there's something to this post, but it is notable that he defends Toad after having an FOS on Ciryandor for doing the same thing to him. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12101366 Now the following posts are interesting if only for the fact that Skrammen's reaction to it was... frankly violent. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12104333 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12113788 A reaction to Toad's post on the likelihood of Skrammen/himself being red, saying if both were green, scum fucked up, and if Toad were red, that Chocolate was likely red as well. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12114900 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. Drem903 has been with Skrammen on my likely scum list for some time already, but most of it has been for his early behavior, as I've stated in earlier responses. Let's see whether that holds up by now. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12083560 His first relevant post to the game is a random prod on xsksc. Excellent initiative of actually pointing to someone as pressure, but no vote? I'm of the school where you back up first day suspicions with pressure votes, especially in games where voting patterns are not very indicative of people's allegiances. As I said regarding Zanfada, voting early is a risk, but somebody has to do it, and drem might have wanted to not have the pressure be on him if he did exactly that. His next relevant post is here, where he says he was pushing for a response from xsksc with his accusation, then follows up with a short blurb on IMABUNNEH's posts being... "filler". http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087688 He doesn't vote on him for that though, and instead picks on Zanfada's early vote. Reasonable given his lack of awareness of how voting works, but still remarkable given that players should have read up on the rules. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087854 Then he goes back and goes for Zanfada as a possible lynch, citing inactivity and lack of response; finally voting for him later despite the suspicions on Skrammen starting to get higher. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12089957 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12100098 What we can note here following is how he essentially says: "If you're town, you should just lie down and die because it will help town more with you dead because you acted scummy as fuck." http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12116985 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12117168 Also, he tries to be evasive on why he did the Zanfada vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12117739 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. HarbingerOfDoom has been the second most active remaining player based purely off post-count, and in my opinion the most likely town in the eyes of everyone. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12083951 His first post already asks solid first-day play, which is a good sign from someone willing to learn the game. Then he explains what Toad means with requiring activity, which says that he at least gets why Toad's post wasn't a scummy move. He gets called out for a bad FOS (IMO) on this by risk of all players http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087902 Then he comments on risk's response and says that there may be times when things are just the way they are. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12088080 He then emphasizes that the town should not be too eager to jump on someone as an early bandwagon despite the suspicion, but should decry any attempts at escaping via inactivity. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12088777 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090843 He then tells Toaddestern to clear up his posting so people can better respond to his defensive posture. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090989 And corrects Ciryandor for his summary on the situation as it unfolds. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12094257 Then he votes for Skrammen based off the suspicions of people and his admittedly weak defense. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12102177 As IMABUNNEH calls him out on it, he defends his position. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12103438 He however notes something quite interesting about Drem on Night 1, and calls out hackle for inactivity: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12115187 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12115245 Using an example to call out drem even more. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12117377 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. First response ignores early pressure from Ciryandor and the debate starting on the people who have already posted (Zanfada vs hackle and Toad vs risk): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087144 Then after that, he remarks Drem's highlighting of IMABUNNEH with fluff of his own, then proceeds to castigate Toad's move as a scummy play. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087741 After Zanfada's post saying Toad's call for activity is good but lack of content is empty, he then goes up and targets him for being "needlessly aggressive" early on in Day 1. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090697 Then he gets into a debate because of the lack of clarity on why there was an FOS on Ciryandor in his view. After that, he finally gets to vote on Skrammen to create pressure on his inactivity, to which Skrammen responds. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12096548 He then explains it as a pressure vote, looking at it to get more information out of him and maybe others. Not a very convincing argument IMO however. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12101888 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12104281 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. First response is appropriately enough an inquiry to why drem was pressuring him. With a relatively empty exhortation to be active but does not raise anyone to be suspicious of as a potential target: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12084427 The next post is a remark on doing pressure on Chocolate: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12085964 Then he follows up with a target on Toad because of people picking up on his suspiciousness and noting a specific post of his. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12088073 After his absence he notes Toad's accusations against him and Zanfada's aggressiveness as items of note, saying that Zanfada is being hypocritical based on Zanfada's inactivity. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12095191 This does not stop him from voting Skrammen instead, which might be a pressure play in itself but feels off; however this does not take his eye off Zanfada, as he asks for a proper response to him from his accusations. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12100944 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. His first post is fluff, does not really want to target anyone. I can't really tell whether it's unfamiliarity or whatever. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12086291 Then he reacts to Ciryandor's flippant remark on him getting killed early and lists non-posting players left by that time. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12086858 Then a surprised reaction to the early activity and Zanfada's vote on hackle: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087223 I don't quite get what to make of this next post though: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087880 He's wondering why people are being aggressive and calls out Toad and risk on it. With risk flipping green, I'm at an impasse on whether that means Toad is green or red. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12088420 This post leaves me wondering, he's right in saying that scumslips occur under pressure, then he goes the opposite route of people assuming Toad's actions were too scummy and says they looked okay against risk's agitations. After that, he calls out once again the vote by Zanfada and takes the risk by wondering if either Zanfada or hackle is scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12090258 However, Skrammen's lack of activity takes away more of his attention, but he flops back to Zanfada; so he probably thinks these two are most suspicious at this point in time. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12091103 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12091408 Still, with the continued pressure on Toad, he finally starts to look on whether those suspicions are worth looking into, finally committing with a vote after Toad says that him getting lynched would help expose who acted scummy and who did not do so. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12098670 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12100217 For some reason, he then asks why HoD thought early on that Skrammen made a good lynch but didn't vote on it immediately, and HoD easily responds to it. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12102924 On Night 1, he implies that either Skrammen or Toad is red based off then-current information because of how Toad voted, and the fact that it would require a sneaky scumteam with Skrammen if Skrammen were the one who flipped red. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12114809 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12073564 The first post is basically Ciryandor asking Toadesstern and Zanfada to be active and work towards a more active town unlike the last time; and may have been fishing for their activity levels to show if they're town as both were last game, or they were adjusting for being a blue/scum in Zanfada's case and a VT/scum for Toad's. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12085211 After the initial accusations on xsksc by drem and vote on hacklebeast/Sermokala by Zanfada, provides some explanation for good Day 1 play to HoD, provides a relevant reason for pushing that person as a good target because they have better activity levels, pokes on Toad to be active, but proposes Chocolate for pressure. Not sure whether one would characterize that as indecisive/unwilling to vote or if there's other purpose. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087622 A reaction on Toad's comment of trying to survive, then moves on to call out Skrammen, Chocolate and hyshes for dubious "fluff posts" on activity. The next post then tries to give Chocolate more of a push to actually commit to a vote if he believes that Toad already merits suspicion. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087901 Then a post to explain to Drem that players can change their vote. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087912 After this he summarizes the current situation with the confusion on an FOS on him for slightly defending Zanfada, and the heavy pressure on Toad by multiple people for what he deems a misguided attempt to lynch him on shallow reasoning; with details corrected by HoD, calling out Chocolate and the dead hyshes on not having follow-through on their suspicions. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12093237 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12094454 The next post is a big moment in Day 1, as it explains why Skrammen looks scummy and deserves his vote, then follows up with another suggested target in the name of Drem. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12098761 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12098866 A defense of his vote being called out as bad by risk happens, but is deflected as it explains the case the best that it could and nobody else had bothered putting something out on Toad and Zanfada at the time. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12104683 | ||
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Notes on reading this: I will be linking to posts if I feel that the post is relevant, non-relevant comments to the game will be ignored or at least noted for their presence. Posts with important highlighted points will have relevant quotes either bolded or italicized as appropriate. First post on Day 1 is attacking Zanfada for good Day 1 play, which as I've said in his post, runs the risk of being characterized as scum activity trying to get momentum on a townie. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12087018 And the only other post from him is a simple attack on Toad without really highlighting the specific activity which made him look like scum. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=12099024 Day 2 leaves no trace of him, then Sermokala takes over with guns blazing still focused on Toaddestern. DAMN, I can't believe I haven't even gotten to Day/Night 2 for everyone, and I've been sifting through this for three straight hours. | ||
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On November 07 2011 00:38 Toadesstern wrote: pretty much sums up my thoughts as well except for maybe xsksc. I would not put him on my 3rd place of my mafia list, maybe on 4 or 5. Could you please do me a favor and tell me what you think about what I pointed out about drem just before you started doing your analyses? Because that was actually the most flashing part for me when I searched his history because I thought it's just not fitting his usual style. Well, when you add his later Day 2 posts (the November 3 timestamps that you quoted) to that post he did and the response to Zanfada you highlighted, it certainly reinforces the fact that he hasn't been consistent, and one could certainly argue that it's a clear scum-tell. In any case, the fact that we have you, drem and skrammen so linked to each other in potential green/red flips and suspicions (accusations/counteraccusations and defenses or lack thereof) means that we'd be wasting vote cycles if we look with the null-tells. I'll assume given the no kill that it's a medic and not some convoluted scum trick, and the medic only gets stronger in stopping scum KP the better he understands who scum want/need to shoot, as it certainly relies on probabilities as well. | ||
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HoD, do you think a Toad lynch is necessary? I don't like it right now, but I can vote for him if we can't get a swing going. | ||
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On November 07 2011 10:08 Chocolate wrote: K guys good reasoning you have this in the bag. Harb better be quick. If you all lynch me for no reason I will be pretty angry. But, we will also have a good idea of who could be mafia. Over all though the lack of any reasoning from 2 people is suspicious. There's some reason for it; as I've read your day 1 activity and later on, you're quite a null-tell, as you haven't been really connected to anyone else for most of the game. You haven't attacked nor defended people actively as much as others. A null-tell is one of the few things this town has to avoid now. | ||
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Well, we need two votes on this one, but I'm suspicious as fuck on the jumpers being Skrammen and Drem. I can still change my vote to force a lynch because it's morning here and I'm going to an SC2 tourney later after the deadline clears. | ||
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On November 07 2011 11:16 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Holy fuck looking at the list of jumpers makes this look bad, but something tells me we don't have time for another switch, please let this be a mafia bussing after seeing the resistance to the Toad voting *crosses fingers* This is what I was talking about man, if this ends up being a green flip, we are so damn screwed. | ||
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On November 07 2011 11:31 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: You should have started a case along with a vote on someone when you were doing all your PbP's earlier, you have plenty of town-cred too you know! Wasn't aware me not being able to make a big case would put us in such a last-minute bind >.> Also, lol @skrammen starting the shift when he was one of the two I mentioned as people that I was willing to lynch that seemed lynchable. I wonder if we could have gone for sermokala...I kinda wanted to give him a chance to compensate for hackle's complete lack of contribution, but so far his main contributions have been poorly argued at best. And you know, accusing me isn't going to win any points in my book either :-P I actually expected people to pick up a Skrammen case; which I actually called for someone else to do when I posted that thing, he's been dodgy at the least, but I'm really torn between him and Drem on who has the scummier play. Sorry man, that three hours seems to have been wasted as nobody really wanted to pick up on the PBP's analysis and nitpick on them. | ||
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On November 07 2011 11:48 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: This is all assuming no more gosu-medic and if we fucked up this lynch: 8 remain, 5 town, takes all town votes to lynch if scum won't join. At that point every day is mislynch = lose, and we get one day of no-lynch if we so chose, but then every day after that one is lynch scum or lose. Activity is key, and we have a lot of people lacking in it. Even those that are active tend to post a lot of filler unless specific requests are made. Not a good town environment. I'm also praying for a good medic save, but... wait I think I fucked it up for you as well. You were pushing for Drem right? I was suspicious as fuck of him as you saw in the PBP, but wanted to have a read on Skrammen before I decided who we needed to lynch. Would we have gotten 6 on him if I voted for him? | ||
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On November 07 2011 12:36 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: You would have been vote number 5, so as long as we could have gotten one more we would have lynched Drem. I wasn't pushing him too hard, but was certainly willing to lynch him (as evidenced by my vote on him). What are your thoughts on Zanfada, Bunneh, xsksc, and Sermokala? Any of them you would like to see lynched? Sermokala/hacklebeast is certainly a null-read, and the push on Toad was a bit iffy in my view. Toad was looking like he was going to get lynched for 2/3 days and was an easy push, however I'm not sure of any of this being indicative of his allegiance, just not enough information at all. Bunneh certainly has contributed his bit on pushing people, but has never been the one to directly build proof on them, with this I'm thinking he's likely to be town. xsksc and Zanfada are harder to read, as they have both not had as much of a presence. Zanfada has had pressure on him for his Day 1 activity, but this has since faded off; and he has been contributing more than he has in his last game with me. That is a positive, but being less active than the average is still not good, with just over 1 page of posts. xsksc has had some pressure on him from you lately for being inactive or having filler posts, and my Day 1 PBP bears this out; however he does seem to hold the strong opinion that whoever flips green in Skrammen/Toad in death will have the other being red. Also we can note that did have that burst of activity castigating hyshes late in Day 2, and starting Day 3 by responding to your prompting to his views of Chocolate (green). He did vote for Drem when he made that same post to put pressure, and only changed to Chocolate because we needed to ensure a proper lynch. | ||
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On November 07 2011 16:23 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Doing a bit of re-reading, and yeah, we could have gotten a drem lynch off I am pretty sure...damn :-/ I also wonder if I was wrong in not floating xsksc as an option to switch to, you had him third on your list earlier today, and I think support from the two of us may have been enough, or at the very least might have given us more information in terms of who resists such a push. Here's my rundown on everyone: Ciry - I'm just going to go ahead and consider him confirmed townie. If he is somehow scum, he can safely endgame me as the odds of something coming up to get me to vote against him are rather minimal. Toad - Nearly confirmed townie for me. At the very least he is clearly willing to follow me and Ciry in voting...so if he is scum willing to follow us and bus scum-buddies in the process, then at the very least he isn't very dangerous for now. Zanfada - Not as solid for me, but definitely leaning town. Has stirred up discussion, was not afraid to step up early with his pressure vote, play is largely consistent with how he played as town last game. Again, seems at least somewhat willing to follow me/Ciry, which means he is less dangerous, even if he is scum. Bunneh - Very slight town leaning. He has been oddly elusive in terms of receiving pressure from others though. Depending on the night kill, could easily move back out of town-leaning territory. Drem - Poor Drem. I don't have much to say on him that hasn't already been said. The most townie thing he has going for him is that nobody seems willing to defend him, and everyone seems to be fine with him ending up dead. I'm still split on whether he is scum that they are aware they might have to bus, or town. Upon reviewing his day 3 activities though...I might be willing to switch him with Bunneh in my town to scum lineup. Hmm... Sermokala - Hasn't been here very long, but still managed to need a spoiler, how about that? + Show Spoiler + Seems scummy to me, but I didn't make any push for him today as I didn't believe there was enough posted by him yet to give us any leads if he flips red, nor enough posts to make a solid case against him. These posts largely sum up my thoughts on him so far: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=26#518 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=278558¤tpage=29#577 His cases made so far have been questionable to say the least. Also, wtf is this about? Is this actually supposed to be a defense of any kind? They've both scum or we're all dead we don't have a choice at this point before people get paranoid that I'm scum. First off It can't be me no mafia would go inactive He has been dropping down my list pretty fast since he first piped up.Also, mostly unrelated, but a closer rereading made me lol a little at this, said by Sermokala: I'm just more sure of toad at this point. Hes been supporting the lynching of people who arn't popular to lynch which I totally think that hes doing to distance himself from the other scums and/or trying to block lynching on the whole. When considered with this post of Chocolate's:##Vote toadesstern sermo's reasoning is very good he has jumped on every bandwagon and has played a little scummy and weird the entire game Skrammen - You get a spoiler! + Show Spoiler + His day 1 activities were very sketchy, and his defense questionable at best. Since then he has shaped up a good deal. Here he is talking about Hyshes. If he flips red we should pressure everyone else who did not vote for me hard, as there is likely to be scum among them. Sounds like a pretty townie thing to say, and I don't know if scum would have thought to slip it in there, considering scum knew what Hyshes's flip would be. Very minor town cred for that statement. Overall, his early scumminess with his later slight towniness has pretty much balanced out to a null read for me. Being one of 4 people without at least a slight town leaning from me does not give you great odds of being clean. Hell, even if the 3 scum are amongst the 5 I think are least townie, not very good odds of being clean.Xsksc - This man also earns himself a spoiler. + Show Spoiler + My short summary from earlier: The short version of my case on him is: has contributed rather little to the discussions, has made a good number of filler type posts to appear. Votes Skrammen after calling out only Toad and Zanfada for suspicion day 1, trying to blend in? Or did he somehow have a change of heart? Loves mentioning time-zone difficulties as often as possible. Basically nobody has accused him, where any one else lurking that I have suspicion of has been called out for lurking by multiple people. It's easier to slip by if 2 other people want you to be able to slip by. Now to add to it. From him: I voted skrammen day 1 because a vote on Zanfada would have been a wasted vote in that situation. If he voted on Zanfada or on Toad, the two people he had called out earlier, he would have made them tied in votes with Skrammen. He is correct in that doing so would probably have increased the odds of a no-lynch, so I'll consider him mostly absolved here, but not entirely. I hadn't double checked the timing of his vote when I posted that. Something I found rather amusing, after I clearly poke him and indicate I have some suspicions of him by posting this: Chocolate and xsksc, I would be interested in hearing your reads on each other, as well as an explanation of the read of course. He seems to wake the fuck up, making sure to include a pressure vote and a number of questions for Drem in his post answering them. He also posts this as the reason for his vote: You blocked the skrammen lynch day 1, without even having a good explanation? And then when I vote him, he seems appalled that I don't have a good explanation posted with it. The same goes for Skrammen and xsksc. Also, I don't think I've been lurking or posting filler. Every day so far I've kept you up to date with my FoS list, reads etc. Sure I don't spam as much as toad for example, but I'm letting you guys know what I think. He has 3 instances where he has gone in excess of 23 hours without making a post since the game has started. Interestingly, his reads have gone basically unchanged since: November 03 2011 17:40 He has only changed his number 3 scum from: 3) Hyshes or some random inactive like Hackle to: 3) Someone who's fitting in well and hasn't been thought about too much, chocolate or hackle/hackles replacement perhaps. Considering Hyshes was dead at that point, he clearly had to change it...and he changes it to nothing certain at all. I'm not claiming to be 100% on him by any means, as he is largely a null-read for me, but at a time when we are down to 8 excluding myself, I'm at least leaning town on 4, and there are 3 scum left to find...well, I think you know where I'm going with this Obviously who gets shot at a stage of the game with so few players left could change a lot of things, and posting this increases the risk of scum shooting as high up my townie list as they dare, but I want to work out as much as possible with Ciry during this night in case one of us ends up dead tomorrow. I'm not sure if scum is shooting for the medic, or taking their chances elsewhere, but at this point I think town needs to play with basically everything out in the open to have a shot at this. (Note, medic, this does not mean you should claim during the night, that'd be dumb and would get you shot) We can't risk another mislynch, so we need as much coordination as possible to avoid scum influence. So, Ciry, thoughts? Anyone else that would like to chime in is obviously welcome to, as I have definitely said at least something about everyone. At this point, the fact that HoD's activity and the constant stream of players of casting suspicion on Toad pretty much help clear them in my eyes as townies; unless HoD has been playing a crazy game of mafia brinksmanship, I'll probably find it impossible to vote for him until an end-game occurs. Toad is nearly clear as well unless there have been scum attempts of deliberately foisting him on town as a "cleared townie"; which IMO have already occurred with the Day 1 shot on risk. Zanfada I'd probably put a bit lower due to inactivity; but his consistency of town play and willingness to put pressure and get pressured back for it are town markers. Bunneh has not applied pressure unlike Zanfada, but he's been posting a lot more than him, and IMO is running a risky play if he's scum of jumping around and creating pressure on people. Drem is probably the epitome of a trapped townie who's gotten his talking ahead of his thinking, or a painfully obvious mafia bus; and it's all because of that post basically telling town to lie down and take it if they get pressured, that was just blatantly anti-town. hackle/Sermokala is rapidly descending from a null tell to feeling scummy, because he's been too eager to jump on Toad despite him looking less and less scummy up to today. xsksc and Skrammen have tried the inactivity excuse with time-zones, but Skrammen has been more obstructionist of the two. xsksc looks like he thinks that way simply because all of his targets have lived, and IMO the Toad focus is unwarranted, but since we're still uncertain of Drem, maybe he just feels much more strongly about a Drem kill. On Skrammen however, I could just as well interpret that as "get away from putting any attention on me if he flips one way, but keep an eye on me if he flips the other"; and if he knew Choc would flip green... Sorry just rambling on the possibilities, as it's ambiguous as fuck either way. What I can say about getting info out in the open is that I feel that Medic and his associated save list ought to hide as much as he can amongst town for as late as possible. It will be important for him to claim as late as he possibly can, because if it ends up being a LYLO, the fewer the scum members needed to lynch and the more people he can confirm through saves, the better it will end up for town, because he can just go out and claim, point to his saves as confirmed townies, and force scum to shoot at them while town lynches the most doubtful people. | ||
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On November 08 2011 13:35 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: So Ciry...should medic claim now? Would that be wise? Worst case scenario scum counter claims, they both say who they protected each night and we take a guess on which is the liar? Can the Medic protect himself? If the answer to this is no, then he should NOT do so. Even if we mislynch today, Medic should hide because we would still have a one person majority if he managed to protect the right person. Claiming would ensure a town loss because scum will just shoot him and win. If the answer is Yes, then it's a calculated risk. Do you reveal and try to out-think scum or do you not reveal and force them to shoot blind? A no-lynch is definitely out of the question in either case. | ||
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On November 08 2011 13:46 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Okay that means it's definitely a no reveal for him in that case. | ||
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On November 08 2011 13:52 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Alternately, medic claims only if we pick him to be hung. If scum tries to use it as an out, real medic counter-claims, same situation as I mentioned above. Or, another option, we no lynch today and see what the fuck is up after another night. Lynch or lose all day every day. The medic can certainly do the claim if he gets lynch-targeted today, because if we do a no-lynch, a night kill tonight COULD hit the medic, and we're in deeper shit; simply because we don't have the night-save anymore, and we lose a confirmed townie. We'll need to start lynching people anyway, and IMO the less chances scum have to kill the Medic, the better it would be for us. | ||
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On November 08 2011 14:57 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Holy previously skimmed over post batman! Does that look as horribly incriminating to anyone else as it does to me? Well, I skimmed over that post and was confused. | ||
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Why not Skrammen? Since you find him suspicious as well, why are you voting for Drem, when town needs everyone to agree on a single lynch? | ||
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I believe my reasons on Day 1 and his further obscurantism shows his scumminess. | ||
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On November 09 2011 16:05 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Zanfada Scum are very likely to be willing to bus one at this point as well...they only need us to mislynch one out of 3 for a win... Mislynch and have a hit that is not med-saved. If we have a med-save tonight after a mislynch this day, then we still have a one-person vote advantage over them. Also, I'm thinking of whether this move IF it were bussing one of their own is designed to ensure they get more chances to take out the medic... it's very unlikely, but plausible that they'd want to make sure their KPs don't get interrupted...I'm wondering whether Zanfada has a point with Drem because of this. | ||
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For Drem: Zanfada (11/9 08:02) For Skrammen: Bunneh (11/8 21:55) Ciry (11/9 09:42) hackle/Sermo (11/9 11:18) xsksc (11/9 11:31) Drem (11/9 12:11) Not yet voted: HoD Skramm And looks like the fact that I thought that Skrammen was bad has shown he's likely to be an incompetent townie... and that's a good thing for us. Bunneh voted very early, and he has shown effort in getting his reasoning out today, but it's suspicious because of this line I'm going to go with the obvious here. SKrammen absolutely has to be scum. I don't know if anyone doesn't have him on their scum list anymore either. So an early vote to make my intentions known:. If it had been stated as "Town needs to get their voting intentions known", I would have absolutely no problem with it. If he just wanted to say that he wanted his vote clear, then it seems very unfortunately worded. However another thing to note here is that the votes after I cast mine (note the italics) came way too close together for comfort; Zanfada's suspect: Drem was the last of the lot there. HoD's new suspect, xsksc, is the 4th guy on it, following right after sermokala's third vote. ## Unvote Skrammen But wait a minute... I've been thinking on a post Zanfada made as Zanfada has been town-leaning in his posts and responses... + Show Spoiler [Stream-of-consciousness at work] + On November 09 2011 15:49 Zanfada wrote: well this sucks, I am town and 5 people are voting for Skram, which means scum are voting for him, which means he is town. Let's assume that Zanfada isn't town, and Skrammen also isn't town, but Drem is town (but this could apply to nealy anyone else of his choice). Zanfada can say this and redirect the lynch to Drem (his target) and then just shoot somebody and pray they don't get medic-blocked. If Zanfada isn't town but Skrammen is town, he'd have shut up about it and let this lynch happen. If Zanfada is town and Skrammen isn't then the other scum COULD have voted for him to make sure the lynch goes away from him; then try to convince us that someone else IS the scum. I DO NOT LIKE THIS... HoD and Zanfada please comment on the LAST point. I hate being put in this bind; and you're the two guys I can trust as townies to do this. | ||
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On November 10 2011 04:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Ciry I don't know how new of a suspect you want to consider xsksc. I wanted him dead yesterday (game time, not real days) too. Also, as for Zanfada's statements which you are considered about, I am basically considering everything going on now as WIFOM and relying on information from our last lynch and earlier to make most decisions. Yeah, it was brought up by me. I am not 100% sold on it yet, but the most logically consistent scum team for me is: Bunneh, xsksc, Sermokala. So, the three of you, the only defense I will accept is an alternate scum team of 3, with an explanation of why it is plausible. Ciry, do you have any alternative scum team possibilities? The only other way I can make one is if they were willing to bus Drem or Skrammen. Also, if we want to no lynch today, I recommend voting in pairs. That is, you vote for someone, and they vote for you. Two town votes on someone would mean the three scum could last minute switch and cause a mislynch and then win with their night shot. That being said, I am also willing to take a chance at lynching the shit out of someone rather than prolonging things. :-D I'm still very much willing to accept that either Drem OR Skrammen could have been thrown out to let the town get distracted and paranoid with them, but given that you've shown how xsksc has just been doing filler; and if someone filters him you can definitely get that feeling as well, I think there's something of a case on him. As it stands, my read on scum team possibilities: With a Drem OR Skrammen bus: Drem/Skrammen xsksc sermo (Bunneh is plausible here, BUT sermo feels scummier to my read versus Bunneh) [his push and reaction to Toad flipping green feel... forced] Without a Drem/Skrammen bus: Sermo xsksc Bunneh Skrammen/Zanfada, either of you get those Drem votes off as per HoD's suggestion. ## Vote Zanfada To follow policy. | ||
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On November 10 2011 09:46 IMABUNNEH wrote: I'll catch up with a full post on proposed scum when I haven't just got home from the pub. In the meantime it looks like we're going for a no-lynch? I'm going to stick with the plan and trust you guys know what you're doing (I don't fully understand what's going on RIGHT now, curses be to a few pints), but I need to vote for who voted for me right? Correct me if I'm wrong and I'll swap my vote to what's needed. #unvote SKrammen ##vote Drem903 No no, you're doing it wrong. Drem already has a vote on him, go get a vote on xsksc. I don't think he's received a vote yet, | ||
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On November 10 2011 15:13 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: @Ciry How could we be any more screwed than we already are? Either we will go down to 4v3 and it will be lylo, or stay at 5v3 and it will remain mylo. Either way we need every lynch to be right. I'm getting a bit worried that Sermokala might be hyshes 2.0 :-/ I also couldn't help but notice that only Bunneh seems to care to address this post of mine: We can be more screwed if it turns out that scum get a shot off that kills the Medic. At this stage of the game, they'll care more about killing him than offing us two, because it's lylo and they'll want to prevent the town from getting one more day with which to actually get information. We've gained half a day and vital information on Skrammen with the no-lynch; and there's no use for them in trying to off us IMO because of the risk of medic protects setting them back even more (if one of us gets targeted by a save and they hit the same person, we can use a no-lynch strategy once again if it becomes necessary; and also gain a good chance of eliminating another null-tell player if they play this thing wrong). | ||
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A lot of posts say either xsksc or Sermokala. Sermo's been acting defeatist... while xsksc has been evasive with his answers of scumminess. With respect to Skrammen... well all we know is that if Skrammen's scum, then at least one of his team-mates was willing to bus him, if only for town cred. Drem has been that guy who's either been suspected by people or not suspected, there have been many tells about him, but I cannot place whether they're noob scum or noob town. To the Medic: UNLESS you are the one on the lynch block, do NOT state your role. It would be the end of us if we end up with a no-lynch and you revealed for scum to kill. | ||
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On November 11 2011 13:06 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: ...? We aren't no-lynching here Ciry. If that happens we lose anyway...they shoot someone who is not me or you, they have 50% on the medic, 50% on the guy that the medic is probably going to protect 0% of the time. I was emphasizing that we CANNOT no-lynch, and what I was saying was that we cannot afford to mis-lynch. Sorry for the confusion, saw your post and was digesting it. | ||
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To HoD: Medic Claims and Scum Fake-Claim (Best solution IMO for them) 2/3 chance of hitting a scum amongst the 3 unknowns (at 4/3) If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic could get shot or NOT get shot (i.e. Scum takes chances with you or me) If they shoot Medic (3/2) we can bus fake-claimer (3/1) then they have to shoot one of you or me. This will have them 1 confirmed townie (You or Me), 1 unconfirmed townie, AND 1 Scum If they don't shoot medic but shoot 1 of us: If success (You or Me dies 3/2): We have Medic + You/Me and 1 scum fake claimant, + 1 townie and 1 scum If fail (You or me survive 4/2): We have Medic + You AND Me, 1 scum fake claimant, 1 townie and 1 scum Medic Claims and Scum DO NOT Fake-Claim 3/4 chance of getting scum amongst 4 unknowns (at 4/3) If we lynch scum (4/2), Medic WILL get shot... (3/2) 2 confirmed townies, 1 unknown townie and 2 hidden scum. | ||
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On November 11 2011 13:21 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: Also, those probabilities are only if we are completely guessing, which I hope we can do better than :-P Maybe we can do a hybrid of your plan and mine, with us forcing people to cast early votes, then have the Medic pop up later in the day to show where scum could potentially have been hiding their votes... Wouldn't that make it more difficult for them to actually make any moves to mislynch? | ||
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Sermokala and xsksc are as good as any right now. I'll pick Sermokala. ## Vote Sermokala | ||
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On November 11 2011 13:32 HarbingerOfDoom wrote: That being said, I want to get voting going ASAP so we can make sure we get everyone on it. At this point I think scum are pretty aware that not agreeing with a lynch supported by both me and you is suicide, so as long as we leave enough time to switch to anyone refusing to join us we should be good. If you think Sermokala is a bad idea (even if half the town think he's scummy), then just say it. I'm perfectly willing to get behind someone else. | ||
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On November 11 2011 19:38 Skrammen wrote: I've been trying to lay low this game, and there are probably a lot of the more experienced players lurking this thread who is facepalming at that, because it hasnt worked all that well. But since I am already taking a risk and probably next in line for a nightkill now, should I tell you who is confirmed townie? He would probably die next night then I guess. I'll look at your answers once I get home from the hospital this afternoon. I don't know what to say to who you saved on Night 2. If it was me or HoD, then the double confirm would force scum to kill you after this lynch THEN target that person the next night. That will make it easier because we'll be left with at least one confirmed remaining townie (and that puts the onus on them to determine who's scum XD). You can redeem yourself for not doing a better job of coming off as townie and do your analysis while you're still alive. I am not sure whether it's good to reveal your save attempt list, just because scum will definitely get more info out of that. | ||
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On November 14 2011 09:53 wherebugsgo wrote: Look at the immediate aftermath of hyshes basically giving up. Players who immediately voted him without even thinking about it (despite saying they would) were bunneh, xsksc. Both scum. Players like Chocolate, Zanfada, and you looked much more town because you tried getting info out of hyshes before voting him. You also provided good reasons for that. HoD made a pretty good case on hyshes and so he came out of that looking more town as well. HoD's only problem was that he was tied very closely to ciryandor, so while I had xsksc+bunneh joined at the hip there were times during which I couldn't tell whether ciryandor or HoD was the real scum. I actually flopped a couple times on that. Ciryandor was scum to me primarily because everyone thought he was town and he didn't die night 1 or night 2. That's pretty strange. He also said a lot of things that jumped out to me. I can go look for these things if anyone actually wants to see why. Go, I want to polish up my town and scum game so it becomes more neutral; will help a lot with seeing what subtle tells I was dropping; and if I could make them when speaking as scum more town-like. | ||
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On November 15 2011 00:21 GreYMisT wrote: It isn't what you believe, but what you can make others believe that matters in a game of mafia. Doesn't matter, got lynched bro. On a more serious note, imploding like you did on Day 2 and not making any effort to try and actually get attention on someone else when you got pressured? That was very poor form. Look at what happened to Toad. He got shot when it became apparent to us he was more of a liability to scum alive than dead; and all it took was a vigorous defense and a lot of contribution to town. If you had done that, people would have still suspected you and Toad, and HoD would have never gained his prominence in town discussion, but I would have never had the same level of townie cred as well. 3 townies and 1 scum being active and pushing each other is much harder to co-opt than 1 townie and 1 scum. | ||
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