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TL Mafia XL - Page 3

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TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 13 2011 02:44 GMT
#1311
On June 13 2011 11:40 Treadmill wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 13 2011 11:32 TranceStorm wrote:
On June 13 2011 09:51 Vain wrote:
On June 13 2011 09:33 TranceStorm wrote:
On June 13 2011 09:22 Vain wrote:
On June 13 2011 09:10 TranceStorm wrote:
On June 13 2011 09:02 Vain wrote:
On June 13 2011 08:53 TranceStorm wrote:
On June 13 2011 08:41 Vain wrote:
Ok, i went trough grush57 posts again. Most of them are just reactions or agreements of people so i am not going to post those.

On June 09 2011 06:55 grush57 wrote:
[quote]


So, he is the most passive, which could also mean he is a blue and then later in another post, you try to get other people to bandwagon with You. Not saying whether iGrok is mafia or town/blue, but u do have good analysis of those players. Inb4 grush57 is trying to defend iGrok, he is scum!


Grush57 is calling igrok scum. This was irr before he was in alot of danger so this pleads for him


Read this again. Grush isn't calling igrok scum, he's defending him given that he's responding to an attack on iGrok and saying that "which could also mean he is a blue". Then he says "Not saying whether iGrok is mafia or town/blue", and concludes by articulating that isn't actually defending iGrok "Inb4 grush57 is trying to defend iGrok, he is scum!", when he actually is.

In the mean time, would you mind responding to the numerous accusations against yourself? You seem to be selectively responding to accusations against grush instead of yourself.

Also, given that the day vote is ending soon, pick out a candidate and give good reasons for voting for them, I haven't seen you strongly support a lynch all game. I've only seen you defend iGrok and grush, so please, I would love for you to make a vote and back it up now.


Several pages later he changed his mind and agreed he wasn't blue either. I'll vote when ill see fit and don't make it seem there have been strong cases against any player yet. We lynched 1.5 times a blue so you go ahead and make a very strong case on a scum. But if it turns out to be a blue you stop playing this game forever ok?

Btw, i also thought voting for jackal while igrock was alsmost about to be lynched was a huge scumtell. but i just really hoped you didn't notice


Please link me to where grush ever accused iGrok of being mafia (or in fact agreed that iGrok was not blue). In fact a quick search of grush's posts with reference to iGrok (hooray for search function!) reveals that he always defending iGrok and suspicious of the people who bandwagon against iGrok.

In the meantime, I notice how you haven't responded to the accusations against yourself yet again, please do so.


On June 09 2011 07:20 grush57 wrote:
Yea, I don't really think he would be blue either.


there, now do your own research without a stupid search function. now accusing of what, not voting on scum? guilty as charged but you have to come with more than that.

Ok, I stand corrected on the quote issue. (That still doesn't clear grush by any means - he's only saying that iGrok probably isn't blue).

But when I'm talking about accusations I mean responding to the following posts:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=52#1022
Well as i stated before it was pretty much a 50/50 scum/blue flip i just don't really like talking about blues and i didn't feel like investigating the rest again. Day one lynch is most of the time wrong anyways.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=58#1157
point one: GGQ,Kurumi and a few others are also on that list. Ty for bringing that up. It could very well be those are all townies. Igrok was positioning himself as head townie remember?
Point two: same as first link
Point three: Well igrok said something about at least one vet being in the mafia. I found that a very good theory. One of the two had to be mafia but i picked the wrong one. I dind't think igrok would put so much effort in appearing town while he was godfather.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=61#1212
Jeah, really i don't know what GGQ was smoking but i didn't even talk about lafali once before i died
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=65#1286

Especially considering that the last of the set of 4 posts is just 2 posts above one of yours and is on the same page where we have had such a nice conversation, it looks to me like you are dodging the accusations against yourself.


So, i hope that's enough for now.

I quoted my own posts a couple of times because you happened to 'skip by them' multiple times so I called you out asking you to respond multiple times. Only when I have finally pinned you down here have you finally responded to any attacks against yourself. So lets look at your responses:

Post #1: Ok, so you voted to lynch rookie on the basis that it was a 50/50 and you didn't want to investigate anyone else further. That sounds fishy by itself, but I won't press the issue here.

Post #2: The first thing you miss in that post is that I compare your current behavior in the thread to that in your previous game. (the first two paragraphs) There was a complete different between the way you posted in the beginning of this game and Slightly Normal Mini Mafia I. Only now, have you become more active in your postings. Is this because I called you out? Now onto the subpoints:
    1. Yes GGQ and Kurumi and the others were on the list. But that was because they had contributed significantly or were seen as veterans - you had not done much analysis. In fact iGrok lumped you into his 'experienced players category' when you had been modkilled in his Sleeper Cell Mafia Game.
    2. Same as Post #1.
    3. My argument was that you were extremely hesistant and unwilling to associate yourself with either side. You seemed extremely unsure and unwilling to accept responsibility for your vote which piqued my interest as you seemed to wish to 'hide'.

Post #3: The key issue in this post was not GGQ's accusations. Its Pyo's collection of your posting history. A key thing to note is that you had not expressed a strong opinion on any issue. You had not advocated for a lynch or advocated for a plan or what not. In fact the only consistent thing in your posting history was your constant defense of iGrok and your suggestion that he not be lynched.

Post #4: This is where I accuse you of dodging accusations. I called you out repeatedly, and judging by the fact that you say you read back on grush's posts, I expect that you must have read those posts. Why did you delay responding until I forced you to respond? The reason is that you have been trying to hide and dodge those suspicions. Don't say that I am dodging accusations, when I am repeatedly calling you out.


Hmm. I hadn't seen that iGrok added Vain to his "experienced player list" despite not really being experienced. Considering I've been doubting the grush57 vote a little its enough for me to switch.

Yep, right here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=19#377. Which is funny considering that Vain was modkilled in iGrok's game.
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 13 2011 03:17 GMT
#1313
On June 13 2011 12:07 Munk-E wrote:
REAAAAAAAALY sorry guys but i am very sick, I can't make analysis right now, and I promise to do it later.

I predict a couple of responses like this will pop up in the next 45 minutes :o|.
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 13 2011 18:55 GMT
#1350
On June 14 2011 02:18 teamsolid wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 13 2011 06:31 TheAwesomeAll wrote:
On June 13 2011 05:40 Vain wrote:
I would also go for grush at this time. I'm reading the thread again and i can't find much more than 2 line posts. But this could of course be his way of playing mafia so look at the facts.

Voted for freeloader and unvote
Did not vote on Rookie44(gtrsrs)
Voted for amazingxkcd

His reasoning for the votes is also a bit off. A few quotes now and then wouldn't hurt.

Oh and btw gtrsrs. why do you start a post with "man treadmill your 100% scum scum scum scum fucking scum. And then: oh well don't mind that we'll just lynch Vain and grush57. And what the fuck. Derailing the thread with telling we probably have 7 scum? Really? That's not town play in my book. I would have labeled that as scum play if i weren't convinced you were town.

i will post now before kurumi goes flying mad with his lurker obsession. We have still 27 people in the game where a lot of people don't post that well thought out post

This post is scum 101, Let me summarize it.

im gonna vote for grush
He plays a certain way, but that doesnt mean shit
he votes a certain way, (insert conclusion?)
Oh and btw gtrsr why do you suspect me, plz suspect treadmill instead or else ur scum

Where did you conclude grush57 was mafia? Normally i would agree he is scum, just for posting bad, but grookie and jimbooo show that since this is a newbie game, not everyone will post as constructive. Also the day 1 posts of grtrs, whining about the haikus, was just asking for votes( in fact he literally asked for votes). Please explain again why you think grush is scum.
That being said, you surely deserve your place on my FOS list :
Treadmill
Grush
Vain


This post by AwesomeAll one of the mafia who was modkilled decreases my suspicion for Treadmill and Vain. I don't think he was planning to get mod-killed and he knew that Grush was about to be lynched so that was a safe bet. However, there's no reason to throw any of his remaining 2 mafia buddies under the bus before the lynch has even happened yet.

Thus, I'm going to say that Treadmill and Vain are both town.

I was absolutely convinced that Vain was mafia because he always defended iGrok (and likewise) and due to his hesistant voting pattern (saying, I will go for grush at this time and then changing his mind), but this makes me rethink.

My issue is that if Vain were not mafia, we would clearly have seen more support for his lynch from the mafia to take pressure off of grush and due to the evidence against him. Yet amongst the 5 people who voted for Vain, 4 of them voted for iGrok making them most probably town. If Vain were not to be mafia, that would indicate that the mafia didn't make any effort to save grush and themselves. Given this, and a host of other arguments I have published earlier, I still think Vain is mafia - but I will be doing analysis of the other players who didn't vote for iGrok.
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 13 2011 19:15 GMT
#1355
I'm posting here a couple of select quotes from the posters that teamsolid listed earlier:

Blackone:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 10 2011 06:47 blackone wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2011 05:27 Impervious wrote:
On June 10 2011 05:21 blackone wrote:
I have nothing new to contribute to the accusations against amazingxkcd and I don't see the need for making a post with "hey guys, just so you know, gonna vote amazingxkcd now".

That's a terrible mentality.

Even if you have nothing new to contribute, at least post your thoughts and say why you're voting for him. In the long run, if everyone was to do that, it'll be much easier to determine who is scum.


Ok, I see how that's useful. Before the voting incident on rookie 44, xkcd was posting a whole lot of nothing. Seeming kind of active, but not really accusing anybody. The only thing of notice he did was his little skirmish with kurumi. After that, when attention was starting to be focused on him, he defended himself by arguing about insignificances and attacking people that attacked him. People aren't satisfied and he posts his giant ass analysis of everybody except iGrok, where he spends thousands of words paraphrasing every single post in this thread, managing to not defend himself in 200,000 words or whatever it was.
I do believe that iGrok is probably gf, but since a lot of that case revolves around him trying super hard to be a good townie while the roles of townie and gf are hard to seperate from the outside, and gf could be also very well be jackal or somebody completely different, I think we have a stronger case on xkcd. That's why I voted for him.

And kurumi, I appreciate your effort calling possible bandwagoning mafias out, but seriously, wtf. There's no way to appropriately respond to your accusations (mainly „HAHA YOU ANSWERED THAT MEANS YOU'RE SCUM). Especially your pseudo(?)-“i'll shoot you“-roleclaim. I have no idea how you could think that's useful.


Very interesting statement here. Blackone justifies his vote for xkcd over iGrok but also says that "I do believe that iGrok is probably gf" and has a pretty convoluted reason for preferring xkcd. Given that targeting the godfather should be a higher priority than regular mafia, this seems a quite suspicious to me. However, this could be Blackone's way of saying "both are suspicious, but I think xkcd is more so" (I thought that way too, but I thought iGrok was more so).

Aprudds:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 12 2011 09:18 aprudds wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 12 2011 08:36 supersoft wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 12 2011 08:31 aprudds wrote:
On June 12 2011 08:01 Kurumi wrote:
On June 12 2011 07:46 aprudds wrote:
I have no intention on filling it with 5 posts in a row -_-.

Since You were here(or are) why You didn't post anything helpful?
People,what do You think about my Plan?
The Plan

Your plan isn't really a plan, but more of a set of guidelines that is mostly common sense in the first place. There isn't much to say other then yes it's reasonable.

As for not posting anything helpful, I look at the facts and analysis, make my judgments, point out faulty logic, and post my thoughts. I am open to any suggestions and criticisms but you will need to be more specific then "be more useful."

Personally I don't find your posting style to be very constructive; it clutters up the thread leading to people not wanting to read or listen to you. You need to work on clarity and conciseness within your posts. That being said there has been an improvement in your posting quality which I thank you for.



lol, you and grush, you two are so obviously scum.
Now you try to be serious and talk something smart etc. - Acting as if everything is normal and giving some nice advices isn't enough. Neither one of you even tryed to convince us, that someone other than you is guilty.


I don't understand this logic. Because I'm not pushing the blame on someone else I must be scum? Because I'm trying to be constructive I must be scum? Please be more clear with your accusation so that I may properly defend myself.

+ Show Spoiler +
Aprudds, I did not mean overall, but now. You made a post, so You're present here and You could write something nice(Thanks for talking a bit about the.. The Points. Yeah. A new name for The Plan.)
And yeah Supersoft. It is colorful.


I misunderstood you, apologizes. I am currently trying to sort out my feelings on all of this.
On one hand we got the godfather and are on a good road to winning.
On the other hand I haven't been so dreadfully wrong with the people I thought were suspicious. XKCD turned out to be blue, jimbooo green and jackal green. Looking back on their posts I would have still thought them as scum. I can't help but doubt my judgments and am no longer confident in anything.

Why would Xkcd vote for jackal even though the vote for him was so close? After he flipped blue I thought it meant that he inspected jackal night 1 and he was framed. But if he was framed why would he say he's the godfather? Nothing makes sense.

Another thing that was bothering me is the two lists. Both days we got a blue killed (or almost killed) as apart of the lynch. When day came I was going to post this list of names.

treadmill
Senj
Kairo
Impervious
Alderan

These people voted for both xkcd and rookie and I was very confident these were the 5 scum. But day came and Impervious flipped blue completely crushing my theory. They could be scum but then again I could be wrong, like all the other times I was wrong. I know I'm being wishy washy and not firmly stating a stance, but all the previous times I've done it this game I've been wrong so I hesitate singling anyone out. I ask anyone in confidence in their analysis like to look into those so I can get a second opinion.

Aprudds is very hesitant in voicing his opinions and prefers to base his votes off the accusations of others. He makes a few excuses as to why he hasn't been giving much analysis (he was wrong in the past - but even if you were wrong, you shouldn't stop doing analysis). His vote for grush was on the basis that "grush didn't defend himself". Not too convincing of a justification. On the other hand, grush did vote for him so things might be thrown off.

Munk-E:
He hasn't posted very much, but when he does, he usually gives off very in-depth accusations of specific people (lafali, xkcd). His excuse for not posting analysis on day 3 is fishy and he could have backstabbed his own teammate on d1 knowing that no one would pay too much attention to him on day 1, but that looks remote.

heist:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 11 2011 18:39 heist wrote:
It's easy to say that Treadmill's analysis is dead wrong in hindsight. I can completely understand defending iGrok at that point in time. I personally wanted to avoid another bandwagon lynch. And you guys have to admit that you were presenting a very biased analysis which if looked at in another light could have just as easily held iGrok as townie. Don't know if it was iGrok's plan but I felt bad for the guy getting tunneled so hard haha.

Anyways I'm willing to admit I was wrong, but looking to our lynch, I also think grush57 is our main candidate. Bandwagoned freeloader early on, has mostly useless posts, and I feel like he voted for amazingxkcd as soon as he felt "safe" to do so (after Treadmill posted his defense and voted for amazing)


Heist was one of the earlier people to vote for grush. Given that only 5 members of the mafia were alive and that losing one would reduce their killing power, I don't think mafia would backstab their teammates at the beginning of the day in those circumstances.
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 15 2011 17:36 GMT
#1395
On June 16 2011 01:42 blackone wrote:
I was wondering why Mafia killed Pyo last night, because he didn't do anything eye-catching, so I went through his last posts to see if he FoSed somebody new or anything. Didn't find much though, the only piece of interest was that he considered Munk-E to be most suspicious.
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 14 2011 01:39 Pyo wrote:
A post by TheAwesomeAll in the mafia ban list. From this post it would seem as though mafia like to wait till the last minute to place their votes. Considering lafali also tried doing this (but was too late), I think it might be reasonable to assume that mafia might be doing this as a general policy.

Looking at the voting, there are only 2 people who have been consistently waiting until the last hour to vote: freeloader and Munk-E

freeloader did vote for iGrok, so I'm a little less suspicious of him, but if you combine the late posting with his lurking and his post history, I think Munk-E might be one of the remaining mafia.

post history:
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 - lafali
Day 2 - amazingxkcd
Day 3 - grush57

analysis of freeloader, lafali, aprudds, TheAwesomeAll

goes after lafali

long analysis of amazingxkcd

excuse for not posting


This post by iGrok also adds further suspicion in my opinion. For one, it reveals that Munk-E's accusation of lafali came at a point where a lynch of someone else was inevitable and lafali was about to get modkilled. Also, it is curious that iGrok would respond to this post.


Otherwise he only found freeloader (same post) and heist (+ Show Spoiler +
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=67#1333
) kind of suspicious, but nothing big there.

It might not be a lot but it solidifies Munk-E as out prime lynch target imho.

Basing lynches off of who died the previous day is never too great a policy given that mafia could have killed to: (1) remove someone who suspected them or (2) cast suspicion on another person by killing a person who had suspected them.

We should stick with the amazingxkcd list since it is far more conclusive than any possible realizations we can glean from debating about Pyo's death.
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 15 2011 17:39 GMT
#1397
EBWOP: Sorry, I forgot that Munk-E voted for amazingxkcd as well. I will take a closer look at him to see if he is a better lynch target today than my other persons of suspicion: blackone and Vain (I'm always suspicious of Vain lol).
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 15 2011 17:53 GMT
#1398
Munk-E has a funny habit of always voting only an hour or so before the deadline. And he never mentions iGrok in his analysis of why we should lynch amazingxkcd (this doesn't mean much at all), but this evidence is far better than the evidence that I can gather on the other players at the moment.

As per Treadmill's accusation of Alderan - I made a similar attack on him which he responded to with this:
+ Show Spoiler +
On June 10 2011 03:01 Alderan wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2011 02:45 TranceStorm wrote:
On June 10 2011 02:20 Alderan wrote:
Here is kind of a new line of thinking let's see what everyone thinks.

I have a feeling that it is safe to assume that either iGork or Jackal is scum (based on xkcd's huge analysis above I'm going to go with iGork).

I think we keep the vote on xkcd for the simple fact that the case against Jackal is much stronger than some people give it credit for. Let's give Jackal/iGork one more day to slip up. Whats the downside? Sure if either is maf they are probably GF, but it's not like they have inherent kp, and framing is not going to be the biggest deal because no one is going to claim after night 2 (or shouldn't).

Moral of the story: Keep votes on xkcd and don't over look Jackal while tunneling iGork . Let's wait for one of them to make a mistake.

Hey Alderan, since you are here right now (I hope), would you mind some of the accusations I made of you here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=227500&currentpage=40#785 ?

I am particularly curious as to your 180 degree switch from opposing the rookie lynch to supporting it. Vain also performed a similar switch-around but I am prepared to cut you a bit more slack considering your recent activity and your accusations of xkcd (compared to Vain's lack thereof).


It was really one of those situations that I said, "I don't think the evidence is as strong as everyone thinks it is can someone clarify" then someone clarified a bit and I said "well it makes more sense but let's see how rookie defends himself". Rookie then came out with a very halfhearted answer like he didn't really care, so I assessed the situation that either he is a lazy mafia or he is a worthless townie that is going to have doubt surrounding him all throughout the rest of the game, so I figured even if we were wrong, it wouldn't be as big of a loss as it could have been.

I completely missed a blue read in any of his posting, I only got either lazy town or lazy maf.

This answer doesn't reveal anything about him to me, so getting Munk-E is the best choice for the town right now.
TranceStorm
Profile Blog Joined May 2007
1616 Posts
June 16 2011 21:15 GMT
#1500
This was definitely a fun game for the majority of days 1 and 2 and a little bit of 3, but I modkills definitely made the game much less rewarding. If some of the mafia members had not died in that way, they might have survived towards the later stages or at least caused more confusion.

As for me, the results show how I constantly picked the wrong guy - my only right pick was on iGrok. Given that I thought that Jimbooo, xkcd, and Vain (sorry haha) were strongly mafia at different points of the game and totally missed out on other players, I feel like I'll need to play few more games haha.
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