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TL Mafia XXXIX

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
April 29 2011 13:18 GMT
#59
/in if there's still room
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
April 29 2011 14:54 GMT
#61
On April 29 2011 23:23 Barundar wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 29 2011 22:18 chaos13 wrote:
/in if there's still room

Smurf?


New player, learned about you guys from Coagulation and Jackal58, who brought it to another site I go on.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 02:27 GMT
#227
Role received. Let's get this game started
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 02:37 GMT
#236
On May 04 2011 11:28 ilovejonn wrote:
chaoser and chaos13 posting within 3 minutes of each other, SUSPICIOUS!


:o

Shit! You're onto us!

Irish, Coag is coaching but not playing. Jackal is playing though.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 02:38 GMT
#237
Wow, you have an impressive emoticon selection, but no basic surprised face? I am not pleased.

chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 02:41 GMT
#240
I fail to see how that is a scum tell. He doesn't mean knows the role of 3-4 players, he means that he is new to the TLMafia forums, as am I, and we know each other, as well as Coagulation and Jackal58, from another site.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 03:50 GMT
#268
chaoser, did you not even listen to what I told you? He knows 3 or 4 of us from another forum. Trust me, he isn't stupid, and would not make a mistake like that.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 13:37 GMT
#324
I have played in two games, both completed as town. In the first game I had the entire scum team nailed on day 3. In the second game I was killed on night 1, but I had 3/6 scum on Day 2 and 5/6 on Day 3. This one may be more difficult as I don't know many of you, and you are more experienced players, but I am good at analyzing people and picking out scum.

I realize I should not have come to Irish's defense so quickly. However, I have no patience for unfounded accusations leading to random lynches. I thought you simply misinterpreted his post to mean "I know the roles of 3-4 people" and wanted to correct you before you actually did vote for him and got a bandwagon on a potentially innocent townie.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 14:06 GMT
#327
I'm inclined to agree with sandroba. Not only this, but they are seeming to contribute without actually contributing. What you posted is fluff that can easily be found elsewhere. There is no need to re-state it here when it is common sense. However big and impressive a post it is, it really hasn't contained any game-changing plans for finding scum.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 15:23 GMT
#340
On May 04 2011 23:50 kitaman27 wrote:


Huh? Why should you be worried about coming to people's defense? Only scum worry about getting connected to others. A town does not feel guilty about standing up for someone they feel is innocent.


Because I don't know if he is innocent or not yet.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 19:38 GMT
#399
Kurumi, why would you have any reason to put random numbers in your post? How would that help town in any way? It will just derail town by making us try to figure out what they mean.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 04 2011 19:56 GMT
#404
Kurumi has my vote due to ridiculous mysterious posts, and now spam. Shut up about LOST, talk about Mafia. Let's keep track of scumhunting.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 05 2011 00:34 GMT
#501
I keep seeing this term thrown around, and I have no clue what it means. What is a chainsaw defense?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 05 2011 15:09 GMT
#643
The style of game you guys play here is way beyond what I'm used to on UG, so I apologize for my relative lack of usefulness while I try to figure things out.

Kurumi has not done anything to redeem himself in my eyes. His posts have remained useless and confusing. I don't see what a townie would have to gain by lining themselves up for a lynch, so I think that is just his defense for being caught as scum, trying to make us afraid to lynch him so we aren't labeled as scum. If he flips red, then we can take a closer look at the people who are connected to him, such as Irish_Punk. He is standing out to me more than any other player so far.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 06 2011 14:09 GMT
#828
In reading through the thread so far, one thing has stood out to me: a definite connection between chaoser and redtooth.


This is a huge guide for new players written by redtooth early on in the game.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 04 2011 16:27 redtooth wrote:
Longpost:

Hello all. Your friendly neighborhood redtooth (aka WRAWRAWRAWRA) here. I've been gone from this forum for quite a long time so there are a lot of new faces that I don't really recognize. Some of you I do recognize but it has been too long for me to remember your meta anyways. Before we continue, let's just lay down a framework-of-sorts for being awesome:


Rule 1: Don't lurk
Lurking is bad - this is the first thing you should learn as a mafia player. In a worst-case scenario, the town may policy-lynch you and waste an entire day simply because you were too forgetful or too lazy to post . In a best-case scenario, you are still a potential scum suspect simply because you were lurking, a situation that could have been avoided had you actively contributed to the thread. If you want to win then don’t lurk.

However, lurking isn’t limited to not posting either. “Active lurking” (the act of posting already stated ideas or not contributing any novel content in a post) is just as detrimental to the town and should be avoided at all costs. You don’t have to reinvent the wheel with every post but do your best to be as pro-town as possible in each and every post.


Rule 2: Don't spam
While activity within the thread is highly encouraged, creating meaningless and contentless clutter is just as anti-town an action. There will be varying degrees of time commitment exhibited by the other players and it discourages people from actively and substantively posting if there are 30 pages of clutter they have to go through every time they log on. That means no one-liner posts, even if they are votes (you should be explaining your vote anyways). Also included in that category are off-topic shit, comments on how exasperated you are, etc. On the flip side, don’t create massive walls of quotes as they simply get gleaned over more often than not (I am breaking my own rule here with this post). Random townies are more likely to quit out of boredom than scum are so try your best to be concise and be precise.

On that note, if non-players (coaches, audience, not-mods) could keep their discussions out of the thread the town would greatly appreciate it. Let’s create a clutter-free environment.


Rule 3: Never Give Up
This is directed at townies. If you're scum, by all means feel free to give up and get modkilled or bussed. However, as mentioned above, it is likely that townies will lose interest in the game much faster than scum will. There are two provisions to this rule: don't stop participating and don't stop defending.

Sometimes your ideas are overlooked or cast aside simply due to the number of strategies or targets being promoted. That doesn’t mean you should stop participating. The town may be tunneling, they may be overlooking something, you may see a scumtell nobody else believes, etc. Each members’ participation is vital to a successful town operation.

Also, there will be cases where you feel extremely frustrated at the (bullshit) evidence being thrown at you despite the fact that you are town. While you may not want to purposefully drag attention to yourself beforehand (since it would be better served looking for actual scum), you should relish the opportunity to defend yourself. A well explained defense can raise the confidence others have in you and gives you more credence in town. Also, getting lynched when you’re town is not only bad for yourself but bad for the town. Do your best to stay alive. No matter how daunting the argument is, don’t give up and keep fighting until you take your last breath or the town sees the light.


Rule 4: Kill Scum
It’s such a simple rule but people (including myself) tend to forget it consistently. Every action you take should ultimately be an attempt to promote town activities and hunt/find scum. Disagreeing for the sake of disagreeing is not something that we benefit from and only serves to boost your ego and create rifts in the town. However, if you really feel that playing devil’s advocate is necessary then by all means go ahead. At the same time, be wary of tunneling (focusing exclusively on one person) as your conviction may convince others to pursue an incorrect lynch. Always have an open mind and a desire to be correct more than to win in your argument. Just remember to keep the main objectives in mind: find scum, prosecute scum, lynch scum, beat scum.


Rule 5: Have Fun
Ultimately, the game is meant to have fun. I will be the first person to admit that this is not always the case as emotions often run rampant. However, do your best not only to have fun for yourself but to promote fun for others. That means trying not to get personal with arguments/defenses and trying your hardest to be the best player you could possibly be.

Also, many players are discouraged when they are given the role of town. Sometimes we think it’s a curse to be one of the many generic roles. People have different tastes but I personally believe it to be just as fun (if not more fun) than being scum. If you’re still not motivated, think of it this way: while sheeping the town is a great feeling, there is no better feeling than nailing a good scum to the wall after a war of words. Be active, be intelligent, kill scum, and enjoy.


Those were all I could think of for now. Follow these guidelines and SCUM WILL LOSE GUARANTEED. Go town!


Notice the last paragraph in this post. redtooth's guide was nothing that could not be found elsewhere on the site, or other mafia-related sites. How then is it so helpful, and why does this make chaoser feel redtooth is more pro-town?
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 04 2011 18:33 chaoser wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2011 18:12 Forumite wrote:
On May 04 2011 15:09 AirbladeOrange wrote:
On May 04 2011 14:09 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so I posted that line just to see how people would respond. You can see that I didn't even post in the actual voting thread and already I think I've got some good reactions. Irish, why such a big response, going so far as to posting a link to another website, even saying that you would dismiss me and "not waste time on trying to convince someone I'm not scum". I didn't even actually vote for you, I posted some bolded words that could have easily been knocked down since there was no analysis behind it, and no logic behind it; it had nothing behind it. Why so serious? Why such a big reaction? Same thing to chaos13.

At the same time, why so much silence on the issue from people who were clearly present? Kitaman? You pop in to say that people shouldn't edit but you don't mention a single thing about Irish, a single thing about me, and a single thing about anything. What up?


I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said.

He does have a few points, people need to make constructive posts, even more so with a 30-player game. Also even this early it´s a good move to call out people on their scum-tells.


There's no real such thing as a scum-tell per say. TL doesn't really do the MS "You said good job to medic when he saved someone, you're scum!" kind of deal but there are limitations to what mafia can and can't do. Or at least feel comfortable with doing. If you look at XXXVII, you'll see that mafia found it very hard to make cases against each other and that ended up catching a lot of them. If you look at XXXXVIII, you can see that mafia were decently wishy-washy. By wishy-washy I don't mean they changed their opinions on things, but that they changed them based upon nothing, merely to please the rest of town.

In Simple Mafia, Town because Mafia were inactive and allowed town to dominate the discussion. Even so, you'll notice that most of the time it was town arguing against town, using weak arguments and trying to figure out alliances before anyone even flipped. That's bad play since you don't know how mafia will act towards each other. They could bus each other a bit, they could act friendly, or they might not interact at all. The point is that you should focus on a few people and then make judgements about connections AFTER the flip. On day one, conversation generation is the most important thing, even if it IS the 30th game we're discussing about lynching inactives or not. Pressure is also a good conversation generator and I know for a fact that GM's question asking helps too.

Mafia wants town to have no direction and I'm sure in this game, where it's filled with mostly newbies, the mafia aren't going to go out of their way to help newbie townies. As such, redtooth get's +townie points in my book. Townies should be sure to ask coaches for help and read over guides conveniently localed here:

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=215574




After someone had questioned how the guide was helpful, chaoser responded with this. The entire post is talking about redtooth, and there is a key line in bold. It can be labeled as WIFOM, but is worth examining nonetheless. Could this be a ploy by a scum player to seem more pro-town in that they are not afraid to be connected to players, and especially to redtooth, to whom he has already been connected?
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 00:44 chaoser wrote:
Why shouldn't I point out in my post that helping out newbies is pro-town? In the statement that I made, I mentioned redtooth doing it, not me. I think my posts do a heck of a lot more talking about my alignment than this one little nit-pick.

I didn't say, "look, helping out newbies is pro town okay? OKAY?!?!? NOTICE THIS!!!"

I said, I think redtooth has shown townie behavior and here is the reason why I think so (He was trying to help people).

I don't need to copy redtooth's behavior to be pro-town lol and I don't think our posting has been similar at all aside from the general undertone of "Help new townies." His advice is more general while mine is very much indepth and explanatory. Trust me, I highly doubt mafia would go out of it's way to arm the opposition with weapons that would make their life more difficult. Mafia would rather have half the players inactive and the rest having no idea how to actually play the game.

My advice has been solid. I have shown that I'm not afraid to be connected to multiple people.



The bolded is again a response to a player who mentioned that the newbie guides were essentially useless posts.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 01:41 chaoser wrote:
Sorry, I didn't see it. He has a good point about not going straight for lynching inactives as well as previous game experiences. I disagree with his newbie guides statement. Clearly some people need to use it so making a conscious effort to link them and be like please read them in full is needed. I'm sure most people have skimmed them at best and outright not read them at all at worst. His last statement is wishy-washy.

Assessment: I don't think it's more scummy than you, Kurumi or Irish/chao13 at this point. Just because he shot ideas down doesn't mean he's scummy, that's him expressing his opinion. At the same time, clearly what he stated isn't common sense/obvious since people followed along and focused on previous game experiences. You can't just look at one post and say OMG YOU'RE SCUM! It's behavior over time that tips you off on it. Like I said before, if you feel he is scummy, write it down on a notepad or excel sheet (which is an action I know MOST people DON'T DO!) and compare it to future statements.

At this time and period though I think Kurumi is infinitely more scummy.






Here is where the connection between them really gets interesting. redtooth is now FoS'ing chaoser in order to put some distance between them.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 14:48 redtooth wrote:
+ Show Spoiler [Post Write-Up Disclaimer] +
: @ Chaoser – I just read through it again and it has sort of a sharp tone. It’s really late so I can’t be bothered to go back and make it nicer. Just know that it isn’t meant to be a personal attack on your character.

Honestly I would have liked to stay quiet a little bit longer to see how it progressed but since you guys are demanding it, here goes. This essay brought to you by Redtooth, the person who got attacked the last time he made a longpost. Warning, very long:

FoS: Chaoser

Reason 1: The Irish Lynch Push
Honestly, let’s be serious: the Irish argument is a joke. There really isn’t enough of a basis to keep pushing it and it has only wasted massive amounts of time that could have been spent doing other stuff. Obviously not many people have been convinced, even though the reasoning behind this is pretty depressing in and of itself.

Back to his strategy. I initially thought that it was just a prolonged Minimalist Approach, something I assumed he was doing ever since he hopped onto my RVS vote. He seemed to have dropped it after a certain point (which was fine with me since it was getting nowhere) but Irish suddenly appeared again as top suspect in a later post making it very clear that Chaoser is still actively pursuing a lynch on Irish.

Since Irish can’t be bothered to defend himself (more on that later), let’s examine Chaoser’s main arguments point-by-point on his behalf (I will paraphrase for the sake of brevity).

Show nested quote +
Point 1: Irish had an odd reaction to our combined presses.
First off, that’s not a scumtell. When two people with Ghost icons start attacking you while acting like they know what they’re doing, you pay attention. As a matter of fact, would it not have been more odd if he didn’t react the way he did? I mean who is comfortable with two “vets” pressing you off the bat, regardless of how much support there is to those presses? I’m curious as to what a normal, expected reaction would have been.

Show nested quote +
Points 2 and 3: Irish creates empty content then chainsaw defends Kurumi by attacking AO.
I’ll admit, I was pretty surprised at how much traction Irish’s argument got. However, I wouldn’t call it a “chainsaw defense” as much as it is a desperate attempt to look like you’re scumhunting. Irish didn’t have many choices in this position as he was expected to “hunt scum” and produce new and interesting content. He couldn’t accuse himself (duh). On the other hand, you would have spun an accusation if he jumped on the Kurumi wagon. Besides those two, there literally is nothing to go off of up to that point. This scenario is somewhat less likely so I won’t hold Chaoser as accountable for these 2 points.

Show nested quote +
Point 4: “He is wishy-washy”
See above. There is a sudden expectation on him to create novel contributions to the thread and this honestly seems like a very half-hearted attempt to fulfill those expectations. And you’re right it wasn’t an EBWODP. It was an EBWOP. It’s a picky counterargument to a nitpicky argument. What difference does it make? If anything, it perfectly fits his character of noobtown.

Show nested quote +
Redtooth’s Defense, Point 5: He is very uninterested in the game right now
You’ve made it very clear that he’s not going to slip your grasp without a serious defense. So why hasn’t he posted one? Because he’s uninterested. Scum is way more likely to fight back til the bitter end (see KillerSOS below) rather than just semi-abandoning a game. It’s not like he’s trying to lurk through it either since his bandwagon seemed to be the biggest at one point.

Now you may be saying, “Hey redtooth! This looks more like a defense of Irish than a FoS on Chaoser.” Well the problem is that either Chaoser should have recognized these or he did recognize but chose to ignore them. Since he seems to be a solid player so far, I’m leaning towards the latter and that is the scummiest action exhibited by anybody in this game so far (essentially actively and knowingly promoting a lynch on obvtown).

Everyone, consider the following questions as objectively as possible:
Is it very possible that Irish is simply a noobtown? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s “chainsaw defense” was actually just a noobtown analysis? Yes
Is it very possible that Irish’s lack of defense is in his lack of interest in staying alive? Yes
Is it very possible that Chaoser is tunneling, intentional or otherwise? Yes

Reason 2: Active Lurking
Town has been giving Chaoser a LOT of credit for “contributing so much”. However, upon closer examination a lot of them are either logistical posts (request to focus, poke on lurkers, answer to questions, etc), offtopic, or pushing one of his four FoS. They all look good but break them down and there is very little to be had.

As shown by one of the posts quoted above, his attention seems to be spread over four people atm: Irish (primary), Kurumi, KillerSOS, Sinani. I’ve already stated why I think Irish isn’t realscum but let’s address the others as well.

Kurumi is that guy. He is the prototypical hyperactive townie who expended all that energy and lost interest midway through game after being pressured. Honestly, when was the last time someone so blatantly scum actually flipped scum? It’s pretty shocking and discouraging to see Kurumi leading in votes. However, it’s a super easy bandwagon to contribute to since there is a wealth of incriminating behavior and an easy target for active lurking.

The FoS on Sinani is based off of one sentence that could easily have been due to him simply not reading the thread with much detail (very much within the realm of possibility since there’s so much clutter). Another easy-to-press person that was pressed. Relatively recent development so we’ll see how it goes.

KillerSOS is actually a great lead (he’s near the top of my list). However, it’s odd that both KillerSOS and Irish are on the list since they are handling the pressure in totally opposite manners (one totally passive, one full aggressive). Odd behavior isn’t always scum behavior, something he should know very well. ANOTHER easy-to-press person to press, regardless of the merit in the argument. I won’t FoS Killer for now since it wouldn’t make sense for one to be on both him and Chaoser at this point.

And by having 4 people FoS’d this early, Chaoser’s also implying that he’s found over half the scum team 36 hours into the game. I don’t know if it is part of his gamestyle to just mass accuse but all it does is create unfocused chatter as attention is split between 10 suspects and lines of arguments get muddled or skimmed over. You’re a liar if you can say that it is easy to focus on what’s happening in the thread right now.

Ultimately, Chaoser’s actions haven’t been enough to place a vote on him yet. But since he seems to be steadily increasing his voice in town, I suggest you guys definitely approach his statements more warily then has happened thus far. From what’s been said in the thread, it seems like he played pretty well as town the previous game but that trust shouldn’t necessarily be carried into this game. He may be a great town member but it is just as likely that he is scum. I mean it’s gotten so ridiculous that players are now making blanket threats against those who dare even challenge the great Chaoser. What’s even more surprising is nobody has even said anything about that challenge.

That isn’t to say I FoS’d him just to get you guys to pay attention. I genuinely do think it is suspicious that a “vet” would pursue these weird lynches and FoS. Logistical posts are neutraltells (WHY WONT YOU GUYS UNDERSTAND THIS?) as are offtopic stuff. That leaves just what I perceive to be a real subtle case of active lurking. I’ll watch how it continues to play out and I suggest the rest of town do the same.




Here is an argument against redtooth's FoS. Both the original accusation and this defense there is nothing too solid. It almost seems as if they were making them up completely and trying to twist things and take them out of context.
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 16:01 chaoser wrote:
Is there a possiblilty that Bin Laden isn't dead? Yes
Is there a possiblilty that the US didn't actually go to the Moon? Yes

While those are extreme analogies to your questions, the logical fallacy behind them are the same. While there is a CHANCE that it is possible, there is a BIGGER and more well supported CHANCE that Irish's scummy actions are just that...scummy actions. Your defense is essentially a roundabout stretch. Instead of thinking about it in a straight forward manner (Scummy actions=scummy player), you put forward this more complicated explanation:

"It's not that he's acting scummy cause he's scummy. It's cause he's inactive and disinterested in the game."

Aren't you basically making excuses for players acting scummy?

You say we should not waste time on this. So how would we go about catching scum and not "wasting massive amounts of time"? You've yet to put forward anything to focus on (Saying you FoS me but that we shouldn't vote me just yet)

Let's be truthful here, this post was motivated by a desire to discredit me and paint me in a negative light, not because you ACTUALLY think the case against Irish is weak. You first thought, hmm, I don't like Chaoser's posting and then added on this weak argument on Irish to try to give it legitimacy. If we were to use your logic, we could hand wave anyone's actions as "not interested so he made a shitty argument that was not only based upon false premises, but then immediately started a bandwagon." and no mafia would ever be caught.

In regards to active lurking, do you understand what the concept of lurking even means? It means giving useless information and not actually taking a stance on anything. I've taken multiple stances, called people out, tried to promote inactivity amongst the vets, and put pressure on many people. I've helped create a pro-town environment. What have you done? Nothing.

Sinani's "analysis" post is the most contradictory post I've ever seen. He says he's suspicious of AO but gives no reasons why and then votes Kurumi. When I catch him on it, he says that he forgot and then says Kurumi has been analytical and doesn't give up. I've been analytical and aggressive (both, by the way, which are generally POSITIVE), why didn't he vote me? Even if he's not reading the thread with much detail, to say he's voting for someone due to them CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVERSATION WITH ANALYSIS is ridiculous. To try to say a complete logically fallicy is due to inactivity is just WRONG in so many ways.

Either way, I neither said I was definitely sure sinani was mafia nor did I say that I had found half of the mafia team. I made a LIST of those that I found suspicious. The people on that list will continue to be evaluated and either be kept on or taken off as events arise. My attention has been very focused (Irish) and the rest are me responding to things people say, as they say them. Should I only respond to issues regarding Irish and after that's resolved, to start noticing other things? No. Your argument to try to defend Irish is weak and your true motive to discredit me is seen. I completely support your stance that people should approach me more warily though but I disagree with the way you have gone about doing it (weak argument, convoluted logic).

I still support the Irish lynch though I see a lot of people are for the Kurumi lynch. Either way, they are tied to each other via the chainsaw defense into vote switch of support that if one flips red, the other is sure to flip red. At this point I am 70% sure Irish is red.



So, redtooth and chaoser have shown a definite connection between each other, and have tried to deny it, even after chaoser mentioned that he wasn't afraid to be connected to other players.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 08 2011 06:17 GMT
#1040
So far I have seen the strongest arguments against Amber[Light]. After promising to post analysis, he did not actually do so, which is inexcusable for a veteran player, as people are saying he is. If he flips green/blue, we can look back at the people who FoS'ed him and started pushing for a lynch, and hopefully catch ourselves a scum or two.

Cthsazsa is suspicious, definitely, but I feel like he is more of a new player than a scummy player. Nothing he has posted has really screamed 'I am scum' to me. Let's keep an eye on him, and perhaps get a DT check on him.

I was talking to Irish on UG, and he said he forgot the password to his TL account. Chances are he will be modkilled.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 09 2011 05:08 GMT
#1374
I can honestly say I didn't expect Irish to flip red, but I guess I got an opinion in my head and stuck with it. Sucks that both (I'm assuming there are two, seems overpowered to me otherwise) day vigis were modkilled, but it helps that we got two scum.
I can't promise to be any more active from now on than I have been already, but I will try to pop in to do some analysis whenever I get the chance.

As for chaoser being roleblocked/medic protected - what is to stop scum from blocking him every night and hitting other targets, and being sure of medic-free kills every night? They can stop a DT check and get 2 kills every single night.

I would like to propose a ridiculous theory, please tell me if it's possible and/or complete garbage.
chaoser is scum. He knows the roles of his scumbuddies, and decides to announce DT and that he checked Amber last night, seeing that there was already a good number of votes for that player. Further, he gets his scum team to switch votes from Cthsazsa to Amber, and then declares that there must be a good number of scum hiding in the Cthsazsa votes. Even better, he is guaranteed that medics will waste themselves on protecting him every night, and he can claim roleblock and not be worried about not providing results for further days, and he can also rest comfortably knowing that if someone tries to accuse him of being scum, he can turn it on them and blame them for trying to accuse a DT.

This is something of a ridiculous conspiracy theory feel to it to me, but I felt it should be put out there anyway.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 09 2011 05:15 GMT
#1375
And here are the people who defended Irish on Day 1:

On May 04 2011 12:59 ilovejonn wrote:
Apparently redtooth thinks Irish slipped cause he thought he knows 3-4 ppl playing in this game as ppl on his scum team. Just a misunderstood post imo.


On May 04 2011 12:53 KillerSOS wrote:
He just wants the pleasure of voting first!


On May 04 2011 13:08 Cthsazsa wrote:
This is very interesting.
Maybe Redtooth is using that as an excuse to get people riled up?
Hmmm.


And myself of course:

On May 04 2011 12:50 chaos13 wrote:
chaoser, did you not even listen to what I told you? He knows 3 or 4 of us from another forum. Trust me, he isn't stupid, and would not make a mistake like that.


On May 04 2011 11:41 chaos13 wrote:
I fail to see how that is a scum tell. He doesn't mean knows the role of 3-4 players, he means that he is new to the TLMafia forums, as am I, and we know each other, as well as Coagulation and Jackal58, from another site.

chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 09 2011 13:38 GMT
#1406
I would like to add another player to chaoser's list to be considered. I clicked on a random page just to see where it would lead me, and the first few posts I see are defending Amber[Light]. There are two different styles of defense here, one far more avid than the other.

On May 09 2011 03:40 Varpulis wrote:
@chaoser I'm not 100% on Amber[LighT]. He's had some bad, pseudo-content posts, but he's also made some good ones that seem genuinely town friendly. I'll keep my eye on him, but I'm not convinced that he's scum. Perfect target for a dt check, I'd say.


This is a genuine defense of someone that he is unsure of. He even suggest a DT check. Not a scummy defense of another player.


On May 09 2011 04:04 Forumite wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 03:56 chaoser wrote:
@Forumite, if amber is blue, he's playing the worst blue ever. He's been consciously trying to fake contribute. Blues don't do that.

Reread his attack on Sandroba, it was very weak. If he´s blue, then he can save himself by claiming, so fine, he´s a valid target for now.

Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 04:00 sandroba wrote:
Another point on why Amber[Light] is scum:
He has posted a list of the "important" post of each player that died at night.
First of all this is a non-contribution, because it does not states the reason why those are important.
Second, If you are town How The Hell would you know which posts are really important? The post are presented on a non chronological fashion, and it only makes sense for you to post them in such manner, without stating reason, if you are scum trying to point town in the wrong direction.

This is a very weak accusation. Picking out posts is not a scumtell, unless he actively choose posts which give a certain message, like pointing fingers against a certain player. Did you find something like that?


Forumite, on the other hand, is aggressively defending his scumbuddy. He does so without good analysis to back up his views, and even attempts to attack sandroba's efforts against Amber. Not only this, but he suggests a blue claim on Day 2. The only reason they should ever do this is if they have information that will lead to a scum lynch, like chaoser did.

To further this, look back at his posts on the previous page. There is a whole lot of nothing going on there, and most of it due to Forumite. He is making comments and asking questions that really don't further the game any farther, and consist of information that can easily be found within a few clicks.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 10 2011 13:31 GMT
#1536
On May 10 2011 16:53 DropBear wrote:
K I just looked through my own posts in this game.

PEOPLE I'VE ACCUSED
redtooth
sinani206
Irish_Punk13
varpulis
ilovejonn
cthazsa
beneather
lyter
jaminz
orgolove
chaoser
sandroba
GGQ
elmizzt

DEFENDED
AirbladeOrange
sandroba
KillerSOS
Irish_Punk13
Amber[Light]
GGQ
EternalMisfit


Oh dear lol. That's a lot of people. Alright I'm going to shut up now.


*Note - in color I included EternalMisfit as red, and cthazsa and redtooth as green because we can rest relatively assured that they are scum and town respectively.

Even without those few assumptions made, this list - made by DropBear himself - is quite incriminating. I believe EternalMisfit and DropBear are perfect candidates for looking into some more.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 10 2011 13:47 GMT
#1538
Eternalmisfit, I would like to point out that the scum team is being coached by some very experienced players. Coagulation is a scary good player, and the chances that the basic town role is called "Vanilla Townie" is extremely high. He would know this. There are far better breadcrumbs you could have chosen than that. Why not a phrase that was within the role PM rather than a generic name? The word vanilla is a weak defense of your status as townie.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 11 2011 03:37 GMT
#1636
VarpuliS, your poem would be much better if it wasn't wrong. We've caught 3 of them and have 3 left :p

I'm not convinced on EternalMisfit yet. I started out thinking he was scum with the analysis posted on him, but he has given off more of a town feel to me.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 11 2011 13:33 GMT
#1657
Forumite, I haven't trusted you for a while in this game. Your analysis has seemed a bit strange from the start. Doesn't mean that you're scum, as I haven't noticed a good scum read from you yet, but you're definitely iffy with me.

I am going to have to vote for Sinani206. The final thing that decided it for me was this:
On May 11 2011 14:39 sinani206 wrote:
OK, I'm catching up, just skimmed the thread and planning to read more in-depth later.
I will not comment on anything until I'm fully awake though.


He posted it six hours ago, and hasn't come through with an in-depth post. This is exactly what Irish did, and he flipped red.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 13 2011 13:32 GMT
#1918
So why would they have killed Sandroba and Cthasza? Just to get rid of two of the players we were sure were town aligned?

For today at least I'm voting Sinani206, unless a better candidate pops up.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 13 2011 13:36 GMT
#1919
On May 13 2011 11:58 kitaman27 wrote:

Secondary Scum Suspects
23. Impervious - Few posts to go on based on the double replacement. Came out looking bad after the sinani lynch. I might consider swapping him with ilovejonn.
17. DropBear - On the wrong side of the first two lynches and role claims at a weird time. Thoughts might change based on the analysis he is promising before the day post.
21. chaos13 - Defends irish day one and then appears apologetic, votes for Cthsazsa day two



I would like to point out that I did not vote for Cthsazsa. I was the third vote on Amber[Light], and it stayed there. I have in fact never voted for Cthsazsa.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 13 2011 14:06 GMT
#1925
On May 13 2011 22:40 Impervious wrote:
I'm still confused about Jackal's death though. I mean, if the plan was to use his death to misdirect us, nobody actually tried to do that, and one of the best candidates for a misdirection would have been sandroba.....


Well he was one of the more experienced players, and he had already shown that he would be fairly active, so perhaps they wanted to take out a potential future threat. Maybe they misread him as a blue. Chances are it was this combined with his tunneling of Cthaszsa that made him a good target.

Who are the remaining veteran mafia players on here?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 13 2011 14:14 GMT
#1927
Well orgolove and kitaman27 are being fairly active. redtooth is hardly posting compared to the beginning of the game. We could use the input of a veteran player right now.

On May 13 2011 22:22 redtooth wrote:
Erm. I'm still here guys, just sitting back after my analysis was shown to be flawed. But I'd like to reiterate the following - we should wait until day to start doing analysis UNLESS you would want a vigi hit. Seeing as we're not sold 100% on Sinani, might as well wait to see who gets killed and what they flip.


Even if your analysis was flawed, you shouldn't sit back and watch. Continue to analyze and continue to discuss things with people. The more input you get from others on your thoughts, the higher the chances you will find a flaw and be able to get a better idea of what is going on.

What do you think of sinani206 at this point?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 14 2011 13:37 GMT
#1975
The split lynch again is interesting, and it really makes me believe that sinani206 is scum. It appears that yesterday they managed to pull off a quick lynch change, and they are trying to do the same today. I suggest that we don't let them succeed in it again.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 15 2011 04:19 GMT
#2016
On May 15 2011 12:33 Varpulis wrote:
May I now state that town is not utterly awful? This time it was a lynch that was unaffected by roleclaims.

With sinani flipping scum, I'm pretty confident that ilovejonn isn't. I'm also quite suspicious that orgolove is. He could very well be the godfather. I think it's time to look at the experienced players who haven't been active and town friendly lately.

That list includes, but is not limited to:
redtooth
orgolove
jaminz


thoughts? Any more names you think should go on that list?


Impervious, if we are to believe Sandroba's last posts were correct.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 15 2011 14:37 GMT
#2039
I don't think we have to worry about ilovejonn being scum. Chaoser even said that after looking back at his posts he didn't feel he was scummy. I think we should seriously take into account the thoughts of a player who correctly nailed 4/6 scum early on.

jaminz, redtooth, orgolove

jaminz made an extremely suspicious vote switch that saved sinani206

redtooth's activity levels have plummeted. He is voting without posting. No excuse for a veteran player to do that.

orgolove has been pushing for the wrong people's lynch. He could just be mistaken. I had a game like that recently - I FoS'ed nearly every town player, and none of the scum ones. Of the three, I am the least sure of him, but perhaps someone else has found evidence against him that i haven't.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 16 2011 03:04 GMT
#2066
At this point I would be more comfortable voting jaminz or redtooth, because they have been far less active than orgolove and Impervious. If orgolove and/or Impervious is scum, at least they are active and have a very good chance of slipping up with so much attention on them. You can't slip up if you aren't posting, which is something jaminz and redtooth could be using.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 16 2011 22:12 GMT
#2095
My analysis of Impervious:

Now, this one is going to be slightly difficult to do, as this player spot has been replaced twice, and each new player will have a different style. I will analyze only Impervious' posts right now.

When sandroba asked Impervious to do an analysis of kitaman27, he did so promptly. The verdict he came up with was "suspicious". The reasoning behind this verdict was very weak. However, he did not outright label him as scum. This sort of wishy-washy analysis is not what we need.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 11 2011 00:39 Impervious wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 10 2011 23:15 sandroba wrote:
@impervious can you please do an analysis on kita then?


Analysis of kitaman27

Verdict: Suspicious.



Reason:

Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 04:30 kitaman27 wrote:
Irish_Punk13

This guy has been completely absent from the discussion after initially responding aggressively to pressure. His play so far has differed from his UG game as mafia, but that doesn't mean he hasn't changed up his playstyle in a more hostile environment. By ignoring the situation, he is digging his own grave.

Amber[light]

None of his posts have really stood out, but its been more the lack of posts that have been suspicious. I watched him in Insane 2 as scum and he was really lurky. Right now, he reminds me of Darth from last game, where everyone ignored him until late game, even though he was a vet that should be posting.

His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it.

Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 04:47 kitaman27 wrote:
If we agree to play along, within reason, will you guys stop spamming up the thread? A 4 page discussion about things like whether or not we should allow 4 quotes or 5 quotes in a post or whether or not the plan makes the game fun is just plain silly. Good analysis should be valued, bad analysis should be ignored. Seems pretty simple to me.

I find this highly ironic, since the vast majority of his posts have been spammy, and he’s asking others to stop spamming.

Ok, that wasn’t actually scummy, just thought I’d point out something that you might get a chuckle out of.



When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus.

However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it:

Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 11:21 kitaman27 wrote:
On May 09 2011 11:20 chaoser wrote:
I will explain after everything is settled


No, you explain now. I'm not trusting you if you think you're going to hide something from us.

After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post.



The vast majority of his posts are spammy/no content. I know I play a lot like that as well, so I know that is not suspicious of itself. He’s an anti-lurking oriented player. And I can totally understand that as well. Getting the lurkers to participate more can also help the mafia as well though, because it doesn’t allow blues to blend in by lurking as well. This is particularly useful for roles like medics.

The truth is, I’m not suspicious of him because I think he’s scum, I’m suspicious of him because I can’t peg him as town. He’s someone I want to watch, but not even consider lynching at the moment. He’s been asking questions which seem to be pro-town, but I’m still not sure.



Now, another thing I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention:

Did anyone else notice something weird about the night kills on the first night? I didn’t really notice it until doing this analysis…..

Aidnai, KillerSOS, and Jackal58 were the targets. Aidnai was a strong supporter of redtooth’s initiative. He also made a post earlier on in the night which signified that he had a blue role without actually spelling it out. Seems like a logical hit.

But why were KillerSOS and Jackal58 killed?

Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue.

I’m not sure about it, but I’m thinking that maybe the mafia is more inexperienced than I initially expected them to be. I can’t think of a solid reason for “why them?”


Shortly after saying that he finds kitaman27 suspicious, he states that he would argue against a lynch on him. He keeps changing his stance, and not actually committing to anything. He then goes on to argue that they need a 'good lynch today' and votes EternalMisfit.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 11 2011 22:24 Impervious wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 11 2011 01:51 kitaman27 wrote:


I'm not really sure how this post is scummy. I also believe I was one of the first people to bring up Amber and pressure him to post on day one. When you take into consideration that you initially voted against one of the two people you were suspicious of when Day 2 came around, it's no longer looks as clear as "I made a good list, give me a pat on the back now!".....

Ok, so I misinterpreted your mixup during the switch. Still seems kind weird though.

I would not push a lynch on you, in fact, I would argue against it. We already have 2+ good suspects, and adding another right now (like you did recently) is not going to help the town much, because it will be much easier to be misdirected when there are more suspects thrown in our faces. And, if we get a good lynch today, we'll really handicap the mafia.


+ Show Spoiler +
On May 11 2011 22:50 Impervious wrote:
##Vote: EternalMisfit



I'm sure we can all agree that the thoughts of players with confirmed alignments turn out to be useful. Here is one of sinani206's posts that includes Impervious. It states that the three people are his votes. Now, would sinani206 have voted for all townies, or would he have included one of his scum buddies in there to blend in? I think it is more likely that he voted Impervious because the scum team had already seen that it was possible they could lose a member to inactivity. Kevconsim/Impervious was inactive, and it would make sense for the scum team to get a lynch on one of their teammates that would die anyway, and prevent town from getting two kills, as we did when we lynched one and Irish was modkilled.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 14 2011 03:17 sinani206 wrote:
OK here are my three votes
1) Kurumi
2) Kevconsim (Impervious)
3) EternalMisfit

I was really nooby day 1 and I couldn't follow the discussion, so I voted for Kurumi because there seemed to be lots of good arguments against him that I agreed with and I couldn't find anything to add.

I voted Kevconsim day 2 because Rising_Phoenix had been very inactive before he was replaced and then Kevconsim was too. I didn't see Node's post about him. Even though he had an emergency, Impervious is also not contributing, so he could still be Mafia.

I voted EternalMisfit because it was a lynchrace between him and me and I didn't want to die. There were also a lot of good arguments about him earlier in the day that I agreed with.



The conclusion I have come to based on the above evidence is that Impervious is scum. He has not committed to any calls on alignment when asked, has a weak attack of kitaman27, and is tied to a confirmed scum. I think that the reason he has not been called out on it before is that this player spot has been changed twice in the past, and that makes it difficult to analyze.



chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 16 2011 23:52 GMT
#2100
Varpuli, your analysis of redtooth leads to a far stronger scum conviction than mine on Impervoius.

My vote preference as of now:
1. redtooth
2. Impervious
3. jaminz
4. orgolove
5. ilovejonn

However, I will not cast my vote until more people have contributed. If we all help out, this game is in the bag.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 16 2011 23:55 GMT
#2101
On May 17 2011 08:48 Impervious wrote:
I'm with DropBear. We need to be decisive right now. Throwing out several targets right now is not going to get us anywhere.

chaos13, I realize it looks bad for me, based on what little time I've spent in this game (especially since, why would anyone have a role that needs to be replaced twice?). And, at this point, I fully expect to be lynched at some point in the near future.

I was asked to analyze kitaman earlier in the thread. I honestly don't have a solid pro-town or pro-scum read from him. I believed that there were better targets at the time, even though I wasn't convinced he was actually town. That's why I'd actually argue against a lynch of him.

Does that make sense? I wasn't actually trying to attack him.....

And, when it came to the EM/sinani thing that happened earlier - I don't want the town to be so indecisive - it's too easy for the mafia to manipulate. We need to be decisive with our lynches.



The bolded is contrary to my analysis of you. We have several targets right now because there are several people who have been acting scummy. If we analyze them, we can cut out a suspect or two and be that much closer to winning the game.

Who do you have solid pro-town and pro-scum reads on then?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 00:26 GMT
#2104
I had a brief suspicion of redtooth in the beginning of the game, but it faded quickly. Perhaps it was right after all.

I would like someone to post analysis on jaminz, orgolove, and ilovejonn. It will help me make my own thoughts on them clearer.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 00:29 GMT
#2106
That makes a whole lot of sense, Forumite.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 01:54 GMT
#2109
I think the only thing scummy about jaminz at the moment is that he only made his vote last minute, and it happened to be on the wrong person.

redtooth is my top suspect right now.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 02:10 GMT
#2111
On May 17 2011 09:09 Impervious wrote:
Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one.



Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing.



There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch.



Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here.

To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now.

You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him.

chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 02:51 GMT
#2117
I would like to hear from Mig. He has made one post this day phase, and it was minimalist.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 13:04 GMT
#2126
I am going to vote redtooth today. He is by far the number one suspect I have. If he ends up being a townie, he is an inactive, so it does less damage than lynching an active townie.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 17 2011 13:11 GMT
#2127
Since I will be unable to be back to contribute later today, I want to point out that we have a split lynch again today between Ilovejonn (2 votes), orgolove (3 votes) and redtooth (3 votes). This is the same thing that happened every time we tried to lynch sinani206. It means that at least one of those three is likely scum, and the scum team is trying to get a townie instead.

Orgolove and Impervious have both voted ilovejonn. I think it is highly likely that at least one of them is scum.

Forumite, Xedat, and AirbladeOrange have all voted orgolove. I think it is likely that all three of them are town. AO is the only one I'm slightly uncertain of, and even then there is little evidence of him being scum.

VarpuliS, DropBear, and myself have all voted redtooth. I think Varpuli and DropBear are both town along with me.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 00:05 GMT
#2148
Varpuli, how would redtooth flipping town prove impervious to be town as well?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 03:03 GMT
#2200
I was expecting redtooth to come in and vote last minute again. Not the case apparently.


redtooth, y u so inactive??
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 03:06 GMT
#2207
Hey...we have a real lynch now. Exciting.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 03:20 GMT
#2227
Remaining players:
-jaminz
-ilovejonn
-Xedat
-AirbladeOrange
-VarpuliS
-elmizzt
-Mig
-orgolove
-Forumite
-DropBear
-kitaman27
-chaos13

There are only two players besides myself on this list that I trust to be town. There are several others who I am uncertain of, but feel are town. I have no positive scum reads at the moment. I messed up on my analysis of Impervious, and on my vote of redtooth. I'll be taking a look at some of the less active players over the next while.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 03:21 GMT
#2229
Also, this is the second time jaminz has vote switched at literally the last minute and made a townie lynch.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 13:39 GMT
#2239
Getting a bad feeling about kitaman27

On May 09 2011 08:44 kitaman27 wrote:
Whoa, kenpachi, Lyter, and orgolove all coming in without really commenting on the situation. Amber and Cthsazsa seem pretty polar opposites in their posting styles. Amber is lurking, while Cthsazsa is spamming, both with little content. At this point, I've got a strong feeling about Cthsazsa. He has been really playing up to the newbie card the last day to use as his advantage. It almost seems forced. If we had to lynch one and dt check the other, I think Amber would be a better check since at least he is a capable player if he turns out clean.


On May 09 2011 09:11 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 08:50 sandroba wrote:
@kitaman27 Amber[Light] has a much higher chance of being GF(imune to checks) than Cthsazsa, and being a capable player (has not shown it so far, at least from the town perspective) he's more dangerous.


Maybe. I guess its a bad idea to assume there are even any dt's left.

However, the fact that three of the people I trust the least (chaos13, orgolove, and jaminez) all are on Amber makes me feel like I'm on the right side.



This could easily just be a mistaken townie, but I just have a bad gut feeling about him. I'll be looking closer at his posts. Perhaps a few others of you should as well.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 18 2011 15:20 GMT
#2241
I took a look at kitaman27's posts. There was nothing there to show him as scum. I guess I just happened to come across a few that seemed scummy at first, but the majority of his playing has been pro-town.

In my search to prove him as scum, however, I did come across a huge suspect. I'll be looking into them more when I get home this evening.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 02:59 GMT
#2246
As I was looking through kitaman27's posts, right as I had come to the conclusion that kitaman was town, I came across this post on jaminz.

On May 07 2011 13:46 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 12:41 jaminz wrote:
Aaaand fuck. I was completely wrong on my analysis of KillerSOS


Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 13:18 jaminz wrote:
@Kita

After reading back over it, there wasn’t a ton of concrete evidence I guess


Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 11:14 jaminz wrote:
Yeah, I posted that without thinking about it, dumb move on my part.


I would hardly call those posts you quoted an analysis. I question how you could be completely wrong thinking he was scum when you pointed out his blue tell and then acknowledged it was a dumb move. The post after the night hits seems guilty if you ask me. In newbie mafia you were a day one hit because of your pro town analysis and towards the end of XXXVIII you showed you were a capable player, but I haven't really seen much out of you so far this game. You're on my watch list to say the least.



And it made me wonder about jaminz. So I looked over the rest of his posts, and I believe he is scum.



These are posts in which jaminz pushes for a lynch on KillerSOS.
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 05 2011 11:11 jaminz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 11:10 KillerSOS wrote:
On May 05 2011 11:06 chaoser wrote:
On May 05 2011 11:00 KillerSOS wrote:
On May 05 2011 10:50 ilovejonn wrote:
On May 05 2011 10:45 KillerSOS wrote:
Guess I fall into "doesn't stand out"

Success? >_>

?? Your posts don't hold a lot of value really. I consider myself an invisible poster but I don't spam the thread with useless wifom like what you did here. What do you mean success? You like to not stand out because you are scum?

KillerFOS



How could standing out possibly be a good thing? Its only going to get you lynched or killed by the mafia.

Nice play on my name btw, but I would prefer KillerSOS


Also my whorish posting can be somewhat explained by my lack of interest in working on my paper, therefore I am obsessively F5'ing the thread. I'll be up all night finishing anyways...


Actually I agree with Jaminz's recently written post about you. The object of mafia FOR TOWN is not to stay alive till the end. It is to try to find mafia. And to do that you take stances on issues and you fight for them. We're not trying to say another 3 years in congress. However, it IS the job of the mafia to stay alive till the end. I've been standing out all game and I probably will be killed but I'll do some god before I go. FoS KillerSOS.


That is an interesting way of putting things. I'll allow you to think of all the possible roles in this game before blatantly explaining how you are wrong. The way you make it look like you are a positive to get killed and in the same statement giving me a FoS is too easy of a lead for any potential mafia to use.

Simply put if you were to die tonight, by this line of reasoning I must be mafia.

That seems a bit too forward than seems reasonable.


Are you saying you're a blue? That's a really dumb thing to say either way.


On May 05 2011 13:06 jaminz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 13:02 KillerSOS wrote:
On May 05 2011 12:58 jaminz wrote:
On May 05 2011 12:47 KillerSOS wrote:
As much as I hate to join on the bandwagon, a vote for Cthsazsa seems to be a reasonable decision.


Yet another post with no information/analysis. Why are you jumping onto the Cthsazsa bandwagon?


Because the people who have provided analysis on his posts seem to be the most correct?

Cthsazsa posts alot like me... short and numerous.

For some reason I feel as though it might be the incorrect method of play, but it is enjoyable to say the least.


I don't understand your posts. You acknowledge that your posting isn't helping anything, and even say it's the wrong way to play. Yet you seem to decide that it's fun so you'll keep doing it.



In this post, he defends Amber[Light] in a circular sort of way. He won't take a solid stance on him, but still mentions many times that he doesn't think he is scum.

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 08 2011 12:02 jaminz wrote:
I've been gone for a while, but I'm more or less back now : )

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Correct me if I’m wrong, but it seems the case for voting for Amber[LighT] stems from his big post about being great at scum-hunting, and then his subsequent failure to post any real analysis, coupled with the fact that he’s a veteran player. Do I have that right?

I definitely don’t get a strong town vibe from him (lack of analysis, lack of opinions, etc.) but I’m also having a bit of trouble being convinced that he’s scum.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 05 2011 06:17 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 04 2011 15:09 AirbladeOrange wrote:
On May 04 2011 14:09 chaoser wrote:
Ok, so I posted that line just to see how people would respond. You can see that I didn't even post in the actual voting thread and already I think I've got some good reactions. Irish, why such a big response, going so far as to posting a link to another website, even saying that you would dismiss me and "not waste time on trying to convince someone I'm not scum". I didn't even actually vote for you, I posted some bolded words that could have easily been knocked down since there was no analysis behind it, and no logic behind it; it had nothing behind it. Why so serious? Why such a big reaction? Same thing to chaos13.

At the same time, why so much silence on the issue from people who were clearly present? Kitaman? You pop in to say that people shouldn't edit but you don't mention a single thing about Irish, a single thing about me, and a single thing about anything. What up?


I think this long of a post is more suspicious than anything irish punk dude said.



Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 04:09 AirbladeOrange wrote:
On May 05 2011 00:56 Kurumi wrote:
Drop Chaoser discussion as scum.
He will be probably shot this night because he is good at Mafia and is staying really pro-town.
It is good to see some lurkers waking up!


I don't like this post. I never like it when a townie tries to end discussion. The town should always encourage discussion. However, Chaoser does not seem to support Kurumi at all. It seems like Kurumi could be trying to defend his mafia buddy Chaoser but Chaoser is being very serious about not defending Kurumi at all. Maybe Kurumi just made a bad mistake that Chaoser is trying to distance himself from it in order to not be involved if Kurumi turns out to be mafia. Chaoser even did a little investigation on Kurumi's other TL posts which is very interesting. Chaoser is a good player which nobody should forget. I believe he has the potential to be a great townie or a great mafia player.

Eternalmisfit did a good analysis of Kurumi as well. I think the worst part about him is his posting method. What's up with that? At least if we lynch him and he flips town, we won't have to attempt to read those type of posts anymore. I agree with your overall assessment of Kurumi and I see him at least as of right now being most likely to be mafia.


This is my third mafia game. I played haunted mafia a while ago and I had no idea what was going on the entire game. Then I just played Brown Bear's mafia game in which I was a mafia goon. DropBear, Coagulation, and GMarshal were all on my team.


I'm trying to understand your posts because you seem to do a little flip flopping. You seem nervous to challenge anything Chaoser has said because of his "vet" status. You are very suspicious of Chaoser on page 15 [see initial quote], but now all of a sudden Chaoser decided to push against Kurumi just enough for you to resist attacking him [see 2nd quote].

I think this might have been a TL mafia first to create a campaign against a player because of posting habits on other parts of the forum. I'd like to believe that people are capable of wearing many hats. One of those hats is used in mafia, while the others are used elsewhere, when appropriate.

From a first look I would say Chaoser wants to come in as a town leader but I don't really agree with the methods he used, though they are a bit convincing.

Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere? You say either they could be together or they could be against each other, but you don't really elaborate on how to figure this out.

Also are we going to take the route of weeding out bad/inactive townies or rely on posting for the first lynch? We need to be really careful about lynching habits. I remember during the very first mafia games we would go for inactives and those were actually the players with blue roles. This is a problem though as it's not really the towns fault, but instead the people who have these blue roles that need to keep active. Lynching a blue is more painful to watch than anything else in mafia.


Do we have an updated list of the inactive players? I saw one a few pages back and I'll bump it in my next post.... If you're new please contribute, ask questions, and start being critical!



Early on he posts some general thoughts about the game, and seems to generally just be asking questions. I understand that a popular scum strategy is to ask questions/get opinions from others while pretending to, or even completely failing to, give their own views. This post looked fairly harmless to me, but I could see how it could be scum behavior.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 06:51 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior.
AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them.

I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.

On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote:
Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why?
We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches.

Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now?
No it is tunneling when you continually misinterpreting what I said instead of objectively reading it and realizing that it is referring to an era long past. Where do I say you're right?

On May 06 2011 06:24 Cthsazsa wrote:
On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote:
Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate.
I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi.
I've written a novel on it. It's on the NYTimes bestsellers list.

On May 06 2011 06:30 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.

...

Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?

I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.

I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS.
I've provided plenty of reason for it. Less confident about Kurumi but still think he leans town nonetheless. The reason is that I thought he burned out after being pressed so hard and that fit his persona of being a slightly immature ADD townie. Instead he came back and spammed with a vengeance. Still fits his persona but a little less so.

And you may be "to a lesser extent town" but you're town nonetheless. What are you complaining about?

On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste?
It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either:
- 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.
- 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.


I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway.

I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis.

For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us.

If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches.

If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking.

Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk.

Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained.



I actually began to get a slight town read from him based on this post. I thought his views on the Kurumi situation was very calm, logical, and thought through. He didn’t immediately advocate for an immediate FoS on chaoser if Kurumi flipped green. If he were scum, it’d be easier to push for a chaoser lynch (assuming chaoser is town – we don’t really know that though). He could pushing immediately for chaoser would be a dumb thing to do since he’s a veteran, but going into that just starts a big WIFOM argument.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 08 2011 00:27 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Just putting these here before Chaoser goes on his anti-Amber campaign. I would like to stress that Chaoser is tunneling me.

Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:51 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:33 Forumite wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:17 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 05:56 Forumite wrote:
You said you were checking Kurumi, and I assumed pissing off Kurumi and Irish refered to calling them out on their scummy behavior.
AKA tunneling. See scumtells from everything I say don't you. Well whatever, I'll play along for now - I said that the act of pissing off Kurumi and Irish would have made me seem protown since they were getting bandwagoned hard and I would have fit right in with the rest of you all. Instead I kicked the beehive and now (somehow) stand accused of pandering them.

I did check out Kurumi. Less confident that he's town but he's still leaning town nonetheless.

On May 06 2011 05:52 Mig wrote:
Red I understand it can be important to find townies but we have to lynch someone within the next few hours. So who are you going to vote for and why?
We'll see. I don't like realvoting (as opposed to baitvoting) early, especially if I'll probably be around for the deadline and can actually make a difference in the count. If voting was to end 5 minutes from now, I'd put it on Chaoser just out of protest. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and KillerSOS, I'd probably put it on Killer. If I had to be the tiebreaker between Kurumi and Irish, I'd probably put it on Chaoser simply because I don't want to be anywhere near those ridiculous lynches.

Is it tunneling if you admit that I´m right, that calling Irish and Kurumi scum would be protown right now?
No it is tunneling when you continually misinterpreting what I said instead of objectively reading it and realizing that it is referring to an era long past. Where do I say you're right?

On May 06 2011 06:24 Cthsazsa wrote:
On May 06 2011 05:18 redtooth wrote:
Ok I'm catching up atm. Chaoser I'll address you soon enough. But for now, I have no idea wtf Kurumi is doing and will have to re-evaluate.
I'm still waiting for you to address him. You said in a post after this^ that he's scummy, but you didn't explain how. Instead you made an indepth post defending Irish and Kurumi.
I've written a novel on it. It's on the NYTimes bestsellers list.

On May 06 2011 06:30 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Redtooth, in your last post you said Irish AND Kurumi are town but provided no good reason for it. I want to know why you feel this way.

...

Now you are saying that Kumumi is leaning a little less town than before. Why? What changed?

I'm even getting uneasy with you defending me as being "to a lesser extent" town. Kurumi I think was the one who tried to get people on my case but he did not have any good analysis. If anyone else has issues with my play let me know up front what the problem is. I don't really think I'm being too defensive, but I'm keeping an eye on people who tried to continue that bandwagon.

I'm thinking it is likely that you, Irish, and Kurumi are all mafia. Maybe you are getting desperate because of the poor play of your two teammates and are trying to help them without seeming overly obvious while at the same time trying to shift attention to KillerSoS.
I've provided plenty of reason for it. Less confident about Kurumi but still think he leans town nonetheless. The reason is that I thought he burned out after being pressed so hard and that fit his persona of being a slightly immature ADD townie. Instead he came back and spammed with a vengeance. Still fits his persona but a little less so.

And you may be "to a lesser extent town" but you're town nonetheless. What are you complaining about?

On May 06 2011 06:44 Forumite wrote:
On May 06 2011 06:33 redtooth wrote:
I am busy today. We will probably end up lynching Kurumi. I was going to ask whether you would want to request a Day Vigi hit on Irish since you're so confident (70% is absolutely ridiculous IMO but you might just like higher numbers) but it's too late and our response would take too long. Worst case scenario, we fumble the lynch and do have a double-townkill round.

Wouldn´t wasting a day-vigilante be a bit of a waste?
It's not a waste if it's a 70% chance of scumhit. If I was the one pushing it, I'd take those odds anyday. If it really was 70%, the net expected results aren't too bad either:
- 70% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips red, we catch a scum we wouldn't have caught otherwise. Net of +1 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.
- 30% chance of occurring - We hit Irish, he flips green, we stop the bandwagon on Kurumi and save a townie. Net of 0 at the cost of a Day Vigi shot.


I'm pretty sure we should save the day vig ability to find the GF or a roleblocker. I was entering the game assuming that the day vig was the role block counter anyway.

I don't know if I want to bite on your analysis of Chaoser Redtooth, but I'm a bit weary of someone that comes in swinging on the first day with this much information about a certain player. Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis.

For this reason I want to see how well your analysis has been leading us.

If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches.

If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking.


Day 1 lynches are without a doubt the toughest to call, but I am going to vote for Kurumi tonight. I feel like he's more of a solid lynch candidate and his flip will give us more information about Irish punk.

Also don't let the numbers dictate who is scum and who is pro town. I would like to remind the younger players that some of us have jobs and sleep at normal times. I play TL mafia from 5:30 - 11:30 my time and I have to catch up from a lot of pages of content/spam, even when I can read while at work. My posting habits have not changed during this game. If you didn't notice my posts, you have easy access to them via my profile. My analysis compounds over the days and I will be focusing on certain players once more information is obtained.


And after Redtooth posted in response to this post I gave a little clarification about my justification for lynching Kurumi. I was not just voting for kurumi because everybody else was doing it. This is probably going to be the last time I correct peoples ignorance. Please stop tunneling Chaoser. I'm not trying to point my FoS onto you, yet.

Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 07:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:
On May 06 2011 07:37 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 07:30 Amber[LighT] wrote:
If he flips red then I think it would be safe to assume that Irish Punk is red, Chaoser is green, and opponents of his analysis should be considered for lynches.

If he flips green then I'd like to see some better analysis from Chaoser during day 2. It's going to really impact this game if we listen to someone who mislynches over and over again. Also if Kurumi flips green this doesn't confirm anybody. Don't think joining a bandwagon is going to keep you in the background if you're lurking.
I'm fine with that. Sort of surprised that you actually think Kurumi is scummy though. Well, once again, I doubt we'll be shifting votes anytime soon so he's pretty much a lock for the lynch. Off to study, bbl. Voting Chaoser in case I miss the deadline.


He's using a lot of diversion tactics and getting really defensive to the point where he was analyzing players that were either targeting him or easy pins for inactivity. It seems like it's more pseudo-analysis than actual content. You know, posting just to post.




This is his most suspicious post in my opinion. He’s being very defensive about Chaoser’s “tunneling.” I agree that Chaoser is being aggressive, but I think to call it tunneling, and then to post a defense of himself while not contributing any analysis is pretty suspicious. He posts a vague threat at the end, which adds to my suspicion.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 08 2011 00:50 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Some important posts to look at:

Jackal58:

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 07 2011 08:15 Jackal58 wrote:
Alright then. A little free time.
Chaoser/Redtooth - 1 of them is scum. Would be worth a lynch of Chaoser and if he does flip green vig Redtooth. I'm leaning more towards Chaoser being the scummy one.
sandroba - scum
GGQ - scum
Cthsazsa - scum
Eternalmisfit - scum
Chaos 13/ Irish Punk 13 - Leaning much more towards Irish. He's a very active player. Now absent.

That's the way I see it at the moment.

Sorry if I didn't submit the correct form. I couldn't find a "Tunneling Request" form



On May 07 2011 08:17 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 08:08 Kenpachi wrote:
Imo, veterans are justified in voting Kurumi. Because of what Amber just posted.
Others, not so much.

I'm not a fan of lynching people because they appear wierd or different or stupid. But I can understand it. I do guarantee you that at least 4 on his lynch were scum. Hell maybe more.




On May 07 2011 06:55 Jackal58 wrote:
First chance I've had to read this since my post this morning. I got as far as Redtooths requirements for FoSing somebody.
Sorry dude. I'm not filling out a form letter to satisfy your ego. Don't like it. Lynch me.

I may not be able to go through all of this before some time on Sunday. I'll be reading but I probably won't have much heart to put into it for the next day or so. My dad is dying and my thoughts and duties are with him and my family atm.
Don't replace me Node. This is my distraction from the real world.


On May 06 2011 23:31 Jackal58 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 23:18 sandroba wrote:
The list argument is pretty dumb. If I were mafia I would NEVER want to see kurumi dead. He was basically doing mafia's job for them. He was spaming the thread, creating a lot of confusion and posting a lot of nonsense. There is no way in hell you could know for sure kurumi was town unless you were mafia. My suspicions are on the people who came to his defensess for no reason, because he was "obvtown". Seriously, you guys must be on a whole other level, because calling kurumi obvtown is like calling a rape a beautiful act between two people in love. Give me a break.

But as town you wanted him dead? But if you were scum you would never want him dead? But as town you did? But as scum you wouldn't? So since you voted for him you're obviously town right? Because obvscum would want him alive? But you have no problems with voting for obvtown?
It's not rape. It's surprise sex. Enjoy it scummy.


On May 06 2011 00:50 Jackal58 wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +
On May 06 2011 00:30 chaoser wrote:
@redtooth

Except I have focused on him? There's a certain thing called reading the air. I've already posted my thoughts on Irish, barely anyone responded to it and everyone seems to find it better to lynch Kurumi. I already consider both of them to be scum based upon behavior (Kurumi says to stop talking about me and 100% supports a lynch of Irish, AO accuses Kurumi, Irish comes in and chainsaw defends Kurumi with AO, Kurumi IMMEDIATELY switches votes onto AO) In this situation, whether we vote Irish or Kurumi, doesn't matter since 1) Both of them are acting scummy 2) Both lynches will be telling of the other person's alignment. The reason I push Irish's lynch is because I am more confident about his lynch over Kurumi's (70% sure vs 60% sure).

Go reread KillerSOS' posts. People think he is scummy because of his line "Why would I want to be lynched, I don't want to die." Go reread his posts and decide if he's just a simple newbie or red. Either way, we can discuss his lynch tomorrow, after the night.

About Irish. At the end of the day, whether you think he is mafia or not, he hasn't come back yet to defend himself at all. He has yet to explain his "Kurumi has made excellent analysis statements" and he has yet to explain his quick sudden suspicions onto AO. He literally popped in, said almost nothing, and then hasn't posted since. You're damn straight I find that scummy as fuck.

I quote this line way too much but Ace, when he was helping coach Team Melee said:

Show nested quote +
Why would you side with someone that isn't even defending himself?

On January 10 2011 11:52 Ace wrote:
Sometimes it's just better to think of a simple answer. You have no idea what the Mafia know and don't know their motives. Hence it's just a simple decision on who is more believable here.


About Kurumi. Kurumi is tied to Irish and you can see in his crazy convoluted posting that he's still trying to push the lynch off Irish.

Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 21:55 Kurumi wrote:
It flipped so wrong,but so good after all.
My mistakes and weird play created a bandwagon which is such an easy way for scum to push lynch. That's ok. About my hyperactive posting:
I was really pumped out for my first Mafia game on TL,don't get me wrong but I wanted to flip out as best as I could,horribly failed though.
The biggest concern now is that I generated some kind of defence for Irish_Punk13 which was not my intention,also I got connected with him.
Even if You lynch Irish and he flips out Mafia I am DEAD.
If You lynch me,I am DEAD.
Who else can You lynch?
Well,entire society is now focused on me,Irish,AO.
It is very easy to make another same analysis post about how my or those two posting was,just take a note that does not certainly mean someone wants to help You,but just to show that Mafia cares to lynch someone who isn't them.
My derail wasted a lot of Your time and I am sorry for that,I might meant it,but I did not think that it would turn out to be discussion number 1.
Bandwagon is ready Scum,buy Your tickets,I am already cursing at You.


No where in that post does he address the Irish issue. He doesn't explicitly defend him but he does insinuate that both of them are town. He passes off all the conversation on them as "scum forming an easy bandwagon".

He states:

Show nested quote +
I set the traps already,just waiting for prey

Show nested quote +
I tried making myself easy Day 2 lynch to try to reveal Scum,but I pushed it too hard,thus it is highly likely I will die this Day 1.


but previous to this stated:

Show nested quote +
My mistakes and weird play created a bandwagon which is such an easy way for scum to push lynch.

Show nested quote +
You can't just forget about my earlier mistakes


So did he PLAN to act as an easy target to draw mafia out to band wagon him or was it just mistakes? He's wishy-washy here. Either state that your posting was planned all along or that your posting was "mistakes", stick to a statement, not both.

Could be all that. Could be just overwhelmed noobs. If Irish is scum he'll out himself. Cthsazsa already has. His response to my poke was over the top and quite extended. His post I poked him about was a pure scum agenda.
His response was pure scum response. He constantly evades the issue I poked him on and shifts it to a not 'knowing the definitions of lurker/inactive"
That's not the item in his post I FoSed him on and I told him that. Yet he still tries to deflect back to that issue. He's scum.
I am voting for him and urge you all to do the same.
I may not be back before day is over. I have to travel to Dallas. So I make my vote now.






Aidnai:

+ Show Spoiler +

On May 07 2011 03:30 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 02:38 chaoser wrote:
...
I ain't going to write "I, chaoser, blah blah blah". I will however, proposition this:

Amber[Light] has been playing lurker-ish
I'll come back to the Irish issue once he's posted and responded to our questions to him. Anyway onto Amber.

Amber is a vet player, and he generally posts a lot. Not just posts a lot, he also usually very active in calling people out and making FoS's on people he thinks is scummy. Except this game he hasn't.

Most of his posts have been either asking or answer questions; in fact, out of his 5 total (game relevant) posts in this thread, he's pretty much only asked and answered questions in 3 of them.

http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=22#426
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=22#427
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644&currentpage=22#439

In the two posts where he actually tries to take a stance on someone (In this case Kurumi), he pretty much says the reason he's voting for kurumi is because he wants information. He never outright says that he's suspicous of kurumi, just that:

Chaoser has really been digging deep into Kurumi and hasn't been letting up against other players. I almost want to see Kurumi flip to see how much we can trust his analysis.


and before, he questions where the Kurumi flip will lead:

Back to you Airblade... My question is do you think creating a chaoser vs/with kurumi vision is going to get us somewhere?


Clearly he doesn't really support the Kurumi lynch but when questioned on if he actually believes the vote though, he responds to redtooth with:

He's using a lot of diversion tactics and getting really defensive to the point where he was analyzing players that were either targeting him or easy pins for inactivity. It seems like it's more pseudo-analysis than actual content. You know, posting just to post.


Which seems like a throw-away reason.

For that, I ask that Amber start to post more. His excuse that he's at work and so he can't do much is nulled by the fact that he generally posts a lot anyway as can be seen in insane 1, and insane 2. He hasn't contributed much to the discussion even though he's clearly caught up to speed and has been reading the thread. This same sentiment is also applied to GGQ.

He gives the advice to DropBear:

There was no need for a PbP analysis here, you just needed to tell Lyter to post more and explain his vote


You need to better explain your reasoning for voting Kurumi (Pretty much that he was acting like serejai aka trolling and so he's probably scum) and why you're not posting as much


FoS? Vote? might we expect a fullblown analysis with an accusation soon? I must say I look forward to it if you do it. Amber is certainly a scummy player and I plan to push his lynch today, but I can't tell if you're serious about him from this post.


On May 07 2011 02:51 aidnai wrote:
dropbear, think how much better the thread would be to read if people went by redtooth's advice. It is protown. Please don't fight it.

The problem with the thread yesterday was that everyone was posting analysis, and (almost) all of it was half-assed and not even worth responding to. Therefore nobody was responding, so none of the cases gained traction (except kurumi t.t). In this situation, scum is not pressured, scum can make weak arguments, scum can wagon freely, scum can lurk without being punished.

If everyone is held to high standards, how are the scum going to contribute? if they try to do real analysis, it's either fake (therefore usually weak as well) or a bus.

BTW, you are one of the shining examples in the thread so far, i doubt redtooth had you in mind when he wrote this stuff. And he answered your questions already, read his posts again.

redtooth's initiative is a pro-town take over of the thread, get on board all townies.


On May 06 2011 08:44 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 08:15 chaoser wrote:
Also, where's Irish? He hasn't posted anything at all.

i know, right?

I'm going out for the evening, and since Irish hasn't posted yet, I will not remove my vote. Of the three vote leaders, I think Irish is most likely to be scum, followed by cthsazsa, followed by kurumi.

See you guys later.


On May 06 2011 07:49 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 12:01 Cthsazsa wrote:
Hmm, this is my rather short analysis on Conversion, since he won't make one of his own.


On May 04 2011 22:11 Conversion wrote:
I played in two games, BrownBear's mafia game (if you could even call that playing) where I was town and DocH's newbie mafia where I was mafia. Still pretty bad at this game.

To be honest I really don't have any opinions on anyone atm. I still think there's too many lurkers. The only playstyle I'm somewhat familiar with is Phoenix's since we were scumbuddies in newbie mafia, but he's not posting. Come out, phoenix!



Too many lurkers? That's funny, because you've only posted three times since the game started. You refuse to form, create, and state your own analysis. Instead, you're lurking in the shadows watching everyone quarl. Kind of hypocritical, is it not?


On May 05 2011 11:15 Conversion wrote:
jeez jackal and the chtzihfia whatever dude bloated the page count up.

look jackal tunnels people. stop bitching about him tunneling if you don't know his playstyle. it makes you seem really scummy when you spam up the thread with silly ego arguments.



And you know Jackal's playstyle? Because in your last post you claim to only be somewhat familiar with Pheonix's. You also say you're still bad at this game. So you must be a newbie, no? If you've played 2 games and you're still a noob, how do you expect me to know how Jackal's playstyle is if this is the first time I've played mafia?

And why are you so quick to come to his defense?


This was a pretty good post cthsazsa, you should do more like this.

I'd like to hear more opinions on cthsazsa from kita and chaoser.

So far, I agree with jackal's original reasons for pressuring, but i kind of have a null read on cthsazsa's response. The fact that he's done very little in the thread other than one-liner spam defense + a brief spat with conversion is a big strike against. But I do like his post on conversion...


I'll just state this right now, I will be very surprised if kurumi does in fact flip red, and I wish sheeping townies would move their votes. There is no reason for a scum to attract attention the way that kurumi has been doing.

GGQ's point about serejai is moot. There are key differences between these cases -- serejai was a hardcore lurker, kurumi is quite active; serejai was (and is) a big troll and is also demonstrably quite clever as seen by his posts elsewhere on the site, kurumi that I know of has no history on this site to make a similar conclusion; kurumi has been interacting with the thread, addressing current issues etc, serejai only did this on perhaps one occasion. There is also the language issue that makes kurumi's posts seem stranger than they actually are.

And yes kurumi has made some troll posts, but that can be explained by frustration. Serejai made troll posts just because.


On May 06 2011 05:59 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 05:48 Kenpachi wrote:
wtf is going on guys
i very konfuzed..

Kurumi is bad holy shit

Lets point at someone else.

On May 06 2011 05:40 redtooth wrote:
On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote:
On May 06 2011 03:08 Forumite wrote:
For trying too hard to defend Irish.

##Unote: Kurumi
##Vote: redtooth

(I´m posting in the other thread too, just wanted to be polite and inform people of the voting here too, since it´s easier to see updates in the main thread)
Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote.
Never too early, whether its me or Chaoser.

QFT


There is room for differences of opinion, but I would 100% rather lynch someone useless (kenpachi, takuna, lyter, etc) day 1 as opposed to a vet.


On May 06 2011 04:29 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 21:20 VarpuliS wrote:
I'm on the fence between lynching Irish_Punk13 and Kurumi. At this point it seems to me that Irish is only scum if Kurumi is too. People are pushing a lynch on Irish because of the information he'll provide when he flips, but I think that we can get all of that information from a lynch on Kurumi.

Situation A: Kurumi flips scum, it is very likely that Irish is as well. We lynch Irish the next day, and we get our information, just a day later.

Situation B: Kurumi flips town. Irish is probably town, we move on. The only real scumtell from Irish is noting Kurumi's "great posts" which don't exist. If Kurumi is town, then Irish is just an idiot.

I'm posting from my phone, classes start soon and I probably won't have time to check the thread again until the afternoon.


First, to address your line of thinking: lynching for information is a bad idea, that is not why we are lynching either player. Your situations and hypothetical ideas are in fact wrong, if we lynch either player, we will not get any reliable information for the next lynch. We get at most a piece of evidence that we'll be able to factor into a decision.

Kurumi is probably town, based on two things:
- thread response to pressure on him (easy bandwagon)
- His posts are extremely un-'guarded'. Meaning, it seems clear that the last thing on his mind is trying his hardest to look like a town, which is actually the first thing on the mind of a scum.

In this sense, yes, it is true that the most 'obvious' scum are often bad townies.

Irish_punk on the other hand:
- is ignored as a bandwagon target
- his posts (what few there are) are in fact guarded, and now he's too scared to show his face around here.

Please consider switching your vote.

Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 21:47 redtooth wrote:
@Kitaman - Well you can't blame me for RL obligations (I'll be less active during evening today as well). Anyways, it's not as much a scumhunting list as it is a townhunting list. At the top is Chaoser for all of the above information. Then comes KillerSOS because he honestly is making every noobscum action in the book without the orgy of information found on the others.

Kurumi, Irish, and AO are all looking extremely noobtown to me. Every argument used against them could be used to argue that they're noobtown.
As I consider myself a player who could stand some improvement, I'm interested in seeing you differentiate killerSOS from kurumi and AO. I currently am reading AO Kurumi and Killer all as noobtownies, AO less noob than the others.



Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 22:13 KillerSOS wrote:
I'm curious as to what a noobscum mistake I made was. I must learn something productive today! (other than still working on my paper...)

This seems like an extremely weird question to ask, but i'm interested in the answer to this as well. :/



Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 00:09 chaos13 wrote:
The style of game you guys play here is way beyond what I'm used to on UG, so I apologize for my relative lack of usefulness while I try to figure things out.

Kurumi has not done anything to redeem himself in my eyes. His posts have remained useless and confusing. I don't see what a townie would have to gain by lining themselves up for a lynch, so I think that is just his defense for being caught as scum, trying to make us afraid to lynch him so we aren't labeled as scum. If he flips red, then we can take a closer look at the people who are connected to him, such as Irish_Punk. He is standing out to me more than any other player so far.

I find it suspicious that all you have done so far is defend irish and attack kurumi. Kurumi is in fact an easy target, so i can hardly blame anyone for wagoning him, but if that is the ONLY thing you have done, it looks fishy. FOS chaos13.



Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 02:21 DropBear wrote:
...
There are a LOT of people who are hiding.

Beneather
Mig
Amber[Light]
Kenpachi
GGQ
Rising_Phoenix
Takuna
Lyter
all need to talk more. The discussion is being completely dominated by the same few players.

My vote remains on Beneather.

added in Lyter for you. Would also like to add conversion to this list.
Players like beneather and amber have been around long enough that I doubt they will be easily vote-pressured into appearing. I hope you'll consider using your vote elsewhere.



Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 03:00 Kurumi wrote:
Well about Chaoser as scum,they started throwing that when he posted a newbie guide.
I thought it is really dumb to say he is scum based on doing that and to spice things up,it was just the start.
Still I don't understand Sandroba calling out for help without doing any real contribution,why he goes after Chaoser (and the SC2 forums posting style) and this is mainly what makes me wonder about him. Also I think he changes his vote on me because he thinks it will be easier to lynch me.

When I read sandroba asking chaoser for help, I understood that to mean that Sandroba looks up to chaoser. Asking for chaoser's opinion can help sandroba validate his own opinion about conversion and at the same time make a new opinion--about chaoser! I can understand this because I think and behave the same way in thread.
When Chaoser didn't really buy the analysis, sandroba dropped it for a while, imo because he respects chaoser's opinion a lot. But he still brought it up later looking for more support, showing that he actually meant what he said in the first place. All of this is consistent from my point of view with sandroba being a greenie.



Show nested quote +
On May 06 2011 03:08 Forumite wrote:
For trying too hard to defend Irish.

##Unote: Kurumi
##Vote: redtooth

(I´m posting in the other thread too, just wanted to be polite and inform people of the voting here too, since it´s easier to see updates in the main thread)

Imo, it's too early to lynch a vet. Your point is absolutely valid however, and I would like discussion of this to continue tomorrow, and if we are able to flip irish today it will be that much more meaningful. Please consider changing your vote.



On May 06 2011 03:38 aidnai wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 21:42 redtooth wrote:...
@aidnai - Then why is it that people are literally tripping over themselves to keep credit and align themselves with Chaoser? As for Irish, he obviously didn't go inactive as part of a combined scum strategy to get the heat off of him since there are no PMs. If you think Irish actually is noobscum and exposed himself to all those real tells, don't you think he would have done the noobscum followup and aggressively defend himself? (See: KillerSOS)

Let's do a math exercise. Consider, as objectively as possible, the following and write down the percent chance you think of each event happening.
  • Whether Irish went inactive as strategicscum or he went inactive as boredtownie.
  • Whether Irish did a genuine chainsaw defense or that he simply jumped at what he believed to be a scumtell regardless of the merit in his analysis.
  • Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.
Analyze your numbers and if it still seems like there is over "70%" of him being scum then your math has been flawed.


On the other hand, do the same for Chaoser.
  • Whether he has been actively promoting quality lynches or he has been promoting the easy-to-accuse-while-not-looking-bad lynches/FoS.
  • Whether the fact that he has a pro-town reputation is due to his being town or his being a good player who traditionally looks pro-town.
  • Whether he is a hard-working townie bent on finding scum or he is hard-working scum bent on distracting town.
This may not come out to 70% as well but it is just as likely (IMO way more likely) as Irish being actual scum. Also, RVS/RQS = Random Voting Stage and Random Question Stage. Next time refer to this.

This made me late for work zzz.


I think Lyter, Conversion, Amber, and rising_phoenix are all good lynch targets that haven't gotten much discussion yet. (For the record though, amber has looked scummy to me pretty much every time I've played with him-_-.) Do you really not find anyone at all scummy or at least scummier than chaoser?

Also it seems you misunderstood something about PMs -- the scum team can most definitely PM each other.

The single most scummy thing that irish_punk has done is go AFK exactly when the heat was turned on. This is even worse for him since the heat was, as you have pointed out, not a strong case at all. I cannot discount this possibility because it is exactly how I dodged a lynch once upon a time.
Show nested quote +
Whether Irish is actually noobtown with all his tells being explained by that fact or that he is actually noobscum (and somehow strategicscum at the same time) giving away a ridiculously abundant amount of information without being more guarded.
Your maths game is biased by the way, sorry i didn't play along -_-

Here's my own version:
-is it more likely that a noob townie would skip the thread after facing a weak accusation, or a noob scum?

In my experience, the noob is much more likely to respond with defense and increased activity. But a noob scum would have a team to advise that a better course of action is to lay low and let the thread move on.

I believe that irish_punk is active lurking right now. His excuse for not posting was checking his other game, which means he's still online, still able to read this thread, he just doesn't want to post here. If he was a noob town, I seriously doubt he could resist the urge to post some response to this kind of pressure.

Last -- I do not understand why you consider him obviously town. You also allude to him giving an 'abundance of information' and not being 'guarded'. Having read his (11) posts, this description does not seem apt, please state your evidence.





KillerSOS:

**Not much on him. His posts weren't as valuable as the other two imo.

+ Show Spoiler +


On May 06 2011 14:22 KillerSOS wrote:
I didn't have a solid target, but you can look back and see that I said he was town.

anyways, headed to bed.



On May 06 2011 03:43 KillerSOS wrote:
That table does bring some interesting things into easier view.

First and foremost is that redtooth is defending both Irish and Kurumi, two of the most scummy looking players at the moment.

Honestly defending players is worse than attacking at this early stage, unless you are over the top with it.


On May 05 2011 13:02 KillerSOS wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 05 2011 12:58 jaminz wrote:
On May 05 2011 12:47 KillerSOS wrote:
As much as I hate to join on the bandwagon, a vote for Cthsazsa seems to be a reasonable decision.


Yet another post with no information/analysis. Why are you jumping onto the Cthsazsa bandwagon?


Because the people who have provided analysis on his posts seem to be the most correct?

Cthsazsa posts alot like me... short and numerous.

For some reason I feel as though it might be the incorrect method of play, but it is enjoyable to say the least.






Again, we have a whole bunch of nothing really. He lays out a few posts he thinks are “important” which are really just posts from the people who died. He doesn’t bother to post any analysis on why he thinks they’re important, however. It’s hard for me to see the reasoning behind leaving out analysis, as I think analysis is always pro-town.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 08 2011 01:03 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 08 2011 00:40 sandroba wrote:
Amber, what's your opinion on the redtooth situation?


His analysis mirrors mine in most cases. I would trust him as a town leader more than Chaoser, and I'll stand by that. Though I will say I don't agree with his posting plan. The idea is genuinely good with intention, but it will choke the town over the next few days. I can't stand by that plan.

We share the same frustrations too. As I'm reading over his most recent posts he's also pretty upset with Chaoser and if I'm not reading into his posts too seriously he is suspecting him more than me. I don't know if Chaoser is just trolling vets or is just trying to get us more riled up but it's causing more and more people to consider him as a lynch target.

I think this post has a lot of weight to it:

Show nested quote +
On May 07 2011 04:33 redtooth wrote:
On May 07 2011 04:26 chaoser wrote:
You guys do realize that talking about whether we should follow redtooth's strict ass guidelines just allows for scum to seem like they're contributing but not really right? I appreciate the sentiment redtooth but all it does is let people post a whole lot of nothing. That's suspicious yo.
Analyzing any alignment right now is a waste of breathe. If anything, it gives scum an opportunity to manipulate lynches to make innocents look scummy. For example:

Redtooth: Node is scummy! I'm going to lynch him asap!
Node: Stfu no I'm not!
Redtooth has been killed. He flipped green.
Town: Kill Node! He had the most reason to kill redtooth!
WIFOM ensues, followed shortly by chaos then scumwin.

There is literally nothing that's needs to happen tonight that we can't do tomorrow morning with more information. That is why I'm not posting an argument against you right now because if I die or if you die then it is a waste of my breath.

Alternatively, we can debate standards to set for town posting that will benefit us when day does come around so that town can hit the ground running.


Though it makes sense I think strategically his posts would have been irrelevent unless mafia chose to take out Redtooth. It would have made him look incredibly scummy. Think about it from another perspective. If you were mafia and you saw Redtooth accuse Chaoser and chaoser was red, would you still gun down Redtooth to "confirm" him using the WIFOM argument? I think posts at night are more catch 22 than anything else [damned if you do; damned if you don't].



His most recent post confuses me. He took the time and effort to try to defend himself earlier when there were (relatively) few accusations against him, but now that he’s the major lynch target he doesn’t even address the situation? Did I miss a post by him explaining his behavior? I can’t say this is terribly scummy as we chaoser (and others) encouraged him to post analysis, and he’s posting his thoughts on a situation in this post, but it is confusing nonetheless.

I’m not going to place my vote on Amber[LighT] for now as I haven’t done enough analysis on other players to compare him with (though I’m working on it and plan to do more before the day cycle ends) but I wanted to mention a few things as well. I’m a bit confused as to why he’s the veteran (other than redtooth) receiving most of the scum-focus in the game so far. I don’t think his posting habits have been drastically different from other players in this game, and I find it interesting that he’s been jumped on so quickly.





In these posts he makes a huge push for a lynch on EternalMisfit. Remember that he was the last one to vote EternalMisfit which resulted in a last-minute tie breaker between EM and sinani206, with the townie being lynched over the scum. He also defends sinani, saying he is more likely a new town player than a scum player.
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 12 2011 11:36 jaminz wrote:
I’ve been pretty inactive over the past few days, but I caught up this morning, and have decided I’m going to vote for:

Eternalmisfit

First of all, let’s look at his voting record:

Day 1:

-Votes Kurumi (turned out to be green, but was suspicious so this is totally understandable)

Day 2:

-Votes Sandroba, who, based on his scum-hunting, I see as pro-town and a good target for mafia.
-Follows up this vote with a switch to Cthsasza when there was a close race between Cthsasza and Amber[Light], who turned out to be mafia. This would be an obvious move for mafia to make in order to save one of their own.

Even before looking at any posts, this is a fairly suspicious voting record.

Early on he made a spreadsheet that listed possible connections between players. This looks helpful on the surface, but I think it’s a pretty good way to just act like you’re helping people without having to really say anything. Look at the quality and substance of a post, not aggregate numbers of who is accusing/defending who.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 09 2011 04:38 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 04:30 chaoser wrote:
Cthsazsa (4)
Conversion
redtooth
Varpulis
ilovejonn

Amber[light] (3)
chaoser
sandroba
chaos13


We've been talking about these two all day and I think it's fair to say that at the end of the day we get the most out of lynching one of these two. That being said, people should decide on whether to vote on one or the other. Voting all willy-nilly on people that no one else is focusing on (Beneather, Forumite, redtooth, and kevconism) isn't helping anyone and just allows mafia to randomly vote and not have to deal with the consequences.


Show nested quote +
Cthsazsa (4)
Conversion
redtooth
VarpuliS
ilovejonn

Amber[light] (3)
chaoser
sandroba
chaos13

Sandroba (3)
Eternalmisfit
Amber[Light]
DropBear


Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be).

Having said that, despite my misgivings with Chaoser and Sandroba, I do agree that the vote is way too fragmented and with 10 people yet to vote, mafia can easily make last minute votes to influence the lynch. I would agree with focusing on these three in my opinion.




If I were mafia, I think this list would make total sense. You have an easy scapegoat (Cthsazsa), a scum-hunter (Sandroba), and a guy you’d that’d make you look suspicious if you didn’t include (Amber[light]). Out of the three of these, I feel like the other two are town (based on the close race between Amber[light] and Cthsazsa.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 09 2011 05:48 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 09 2011 05:19 chaoser wrote:
On May 09 2011 05:06 Eternalmisfit wrote:
On May 09 2011 04:44 chaoser wrote:
Again, Chaoser conveniently drops Sandroba off the list even though Amber and Sandroba have equal votes at this point (of which chaos13's vote seems as bandwagon-ish as it can be).


Because sandroba is probably the most pro-townie player I've seen in this game. I hosted Sleeper Cell Mafia and so I've seen his scum play. He knew Ace and Jackal were mafia from day 1 and so it's a decent read on his scum play and his play in this game is not at all like his play in that game.


I think this debate is going in circles. I have a weak suspicion on you and a strong scum-read on Sandroba. You and Sandroba both seem to have a strong scum read on Amber. Given this, in the decision on who to include and who not to include in the smaller focus set, both you and me will be biased. I would prefer to have Cthasazsa and Sandroba and you would prefer to have Cthazazsa and Amber.

Given this situation, would you trust me to make the decision of a smaller focus set alone? I bet not. And that the exact same reason I cannot trust you make the decision of deciding who should be included in the smaller focus set.

I am not sure of your leanings and have not seen any strong analysis showing why you have a strong town read on Sandroba. If you can convince me with such an analysis, I would gladly concede on having Sandroba removed from the focus set. But until then, since enough people are suspicious of both Amber and Sandroba, I would recommend having both of them and Cthazazsa in there.


Here's a question then, why would two mafia, since you have a weak scum read on me and a strong read on Sandroba, try their ass off to get Amber out of all people lynched. He has no useful posts (if you're going to compare his posts to sandroba, you'll see that sandroba is at least contributing and giving opinions on matters. Amber has been pretty much saying the same thing everyone else is saying, copying ideas from everyone else who has written about sandroba.) If we were mafia you think we'd BOTH stick our necks out to get AMBER out of all people lynched? It wasn't even like the Amber situation only came up after sandroba situation came up to draw pressure off amber, it happened the other way around.


Let me recap the events of last night. You started off with a FoS on Amber which was followed by Sandroba's rather quick jump from redtooth onto Amber. At the point where I first pointed Sandroba seemed suspicious, a bandwagon seemed to be forming against Amber. Several others started stating Amber seemed a little scummy without backing it up with any analysis.

If I had not raised my suspicions on Sandroba, a similar bandwagon to the one on Kurumi would have formed on Amber. Even if Amber flipped green/blue after a lynch, it would be hard to pinpoint any scum strongly since a large number of townies would have been mixed in with the scum (like what happened with Kurumi). At this point, even if the lynch of Amber goes ahead and he flips town, it will be quite clear who all are suspicious.

As to why Mafia would want Amber dead, I (and also several others in this thread) have got a potential blue read from Amber. Getting a blue lynched would be a big victory for scum at this point since town already lost 2 blues on Night1.

As for my case against Sandroba, I have stated it before and do not see the necessity of restating it again.



A defense of Amber. I shouldn’t have to explain why that’s suspicious.

Later posts:

I can’t see a reason why he’d claim to be a vanilla townie. It’s a dumb roleclaim, and just makes me even more suspicious of him. Claiming seems like a desperation move when you’re trying to get the focus off of yourself. If you’re town, you should be more worried about finding scum than dying.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 11 2011 08:42 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 11 2011 06:58 Cthsazsa wrote:
He knew Amber was mafia, so he insisted on keeping his vote on Sandroba. Knowing he would look suspicious if he kept his vote on Sandroba (A lynch on him obv wasn't going to happen), and not wanting to vote on his fellow scum, He uses the scapegoat, i.e. me.


Firstly, regarding your other post, I stated clearly that I would prefer to keep my vote on Sandroba as I was convinced that he was scum more than you. However, a few people stated towards the end of the day that I should take a stand between the two of you and thus I voted for you.

If I was scum and knew Amber was scum, why wouldn't I have voted for Cthsazsa long before that point in order to increase the lead between Amber and Cthsazsa instead of focusing on Sandroba (it was clear that he was not going to be voted at some time before that).

As for ilovejonn's accusations and anlaysis.
Point 1: Non-important as it was just A FoS
Point 2: I cant even count how many PbP analysis had been on Day1. Interesting you pick apart each of my posts the same way I did for Kurumi and then claim I am scum for that.
Point 3: The strategy of voting a person likely to be mod-killed was something I proposed in Surpirsingly normal mini mafia in case the town didnt reach a consensus well and it worked out decently there. It is the same logic I applied there.
Point 4: I voted for Kurumi since he posts seem to focus on derailing town discussion and not because his posts were bad in grammer/hard to follow. Also, there was no content in his spam posting
Point 5: I was of the opinion Irish is a reasonable lynch target as well. If you see the post I was referring to, redtooth made a specific argument for Irish and thus, I was replying in context of Irish. I still believed Kurumi was a better lynch target at that point.
Point 6: I posted later that I got busy at work and thus will be unable to make the post. It is interesting that someone who claims about lower activity due to real life stuff use the same argument to paint someone else as scum.
Point 7: Spreadsheet - If making a spreadsheet showing who voted/FoS/defended whom makes me scummy, I don't know what to respond that with.


Also, at this point, I would recommend that if someone is putting a vote on someone (be it me or someone else), please make a case or argument as to why you are voting for that person. Despite me being wrong or right, I have always posted as to why I voted for someone unlike a lot of people who either made bandwagon votes or voted w/o posting any explanation at all.

In any case, quite a few people are missing from thread completely today and I would like to hear their opinion/take on the discussion. Them being: VarpuliS, Kenpachi, jaminz, Conversion, and sinani.



Holy crap. Did you really just spend this much time defending yourself? I don’t see a reason any town member would find it worth it to spend that much time defending themselves. Yes, make a quick defense, that’s fine. But to go point by point seems a little excessive to me. I don’t think there’s a need for town players to do this, but it would obviously be necessary for mafia.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 12 2011 08:22 Eternalmisfit wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2011 06:52 Forumite wrote:
On May 12 2011 06:40 Varpulis wrote:
Fine, it's not OMGUS. It's still joining a bandwagon without giving a real reason. "There's some evidence and stuff" is not a reason, at least not a good one.
None of them had a really good reason to vote for the other, except "better you than me".

EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night"
sinani206 said "It looks like there is most evidence on EM"


Interesting that you say so since I posted my reasons here.
First analysis

Then, I also clarified when you raised a question here and here:
1
2

Also, you read those posts very well since you questioned me on the initial analysis (to which I replied) and said I was building a case against sinani206 here:
Forumite's post

Whether you agree with my analysis or not, I believe I have posted my suspicions more coherently than Sinani's agruments against me.

I also find it suspicious that you choose to ignore what you clearly read and commented on and summarized my vote as
Show nested quote +
EM said "I´ll vote for sinani206 unless I come back before night"


I am not 100% convinced that he's mafia but among the people I suspect, he is the most likely one.

I am going to my reads on different players as well since it is quite likely I will end up getting lynched. Also, I won't be on again till much later.

Town reads
Sandroba - for obvious reasons at this point.

Kenpachi - for obvious reasons at this point.

DropBear - Townie claim, general posting, and tying himself so closely with myself. At this point, if I flipped red, he is nearly #1 target for next lynch.


scum reads
Sinani - voting patterns suggest that he is either disinterested townie or scum. It is unlikely that he is disinterested townie based on my above analysis but it is not a 100% read.

Ilovejonn - If you leave aside the fact that he raised suspicion on me (which is why he is not being considered at the moment), he has shown rather scummy behavior i.e. suggesting he always gets town, claimed blue read on Amber (would suggest asking him why he thought so), weak FoS on me on Day2 start, trying to gain town cred based on a dead man's read.

Conversion and Elmizzit - Textbook examples of posting w/o contributing. They also seem to be good at making themselves not noticeable. In fact, I don't recall anyone having analyzed their posting.

Suspicious reads - not necessarily scummy
jaminz - Missing from thread in general. Vote 1 was inexplicable since he knew Killer was Blue but still voted for him. Vote 2 was accompanied by contradictory reasons. He votes for Amber early so that is why I don't get a clear scum read but that might have been an attempt to bus Amber.

redtooth - sudden decline in activity. Lot of people have been wrong in their votes (hell, I am a perfect example for it) but very few have shown such a sudden decline in activity.

orgolove - He never explained why he switched his vote from Redtooth->Chaoser->Kurumi on Day1. His Day2 vote was on Amber which I why I am hesistant on this as a scum read.


Null Reads
Kitaman
VarpuliS
Impervious - mostly due to lack of sufficient posts to analyze
Mig

I am confused on my reads about Forumite, AirBladeOrange, Cthsasza, and Chaos13 but it is mostly a combination of mixed signals and gut feelings so I am not posting them here.



This post gave me a bit of a pro-town vibe as he does some analysis, but he still spends a large amount of the post defending himself. That bothers me.

Thus, I’m voting for Eternalmisfit.




On May 12 2011 11:46 jaminz wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 12 2011 11:42 Forumite wrote:
jaminz, it´s not a matter if EM is scummy, but if he´s MORE scummy than sinani206. Do you think so?


I get more of a newbie-town read from sinani206 baased on his post about sc2 mafia, and the fact that his posts seem very simple. If he were mafia I feel like he'd be doing a better job of analysing, a better job of pushing suspicion off of himself, etc. as he'd have help formulating posts & ideas.


On May 12 2011 11:53 jaminz wrote:
They're both suspicious, but my gut says Eternal is scummier than sinani.



This post is a perfect example of contributing without contributing. He makes a list, but places no personal thoughts or analysis along with it.
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 15 2011 12:12 jaminz wrote:
YES. Ok, so we're down to 15 people left. 13 town, 2 mafia. Mafia have 1 KP now.

Updated Player List:

Player Roster:
2. jaminz
3. ilovejonn
4. Conversion
6. AirbladeOrange
7. VarpuliS
10. elmizzt
11. Kenpachi
13. Mig
14. orgolove
16. Forumite
17. DropBear
20. redtooth
21. chaos13
25. kitaman27
26. Cthsazsa



Second time that he has made a vote switch at the last minute. In this case it was literally at the last minute, and again resulted in a townie lynch, this time of Impervious.
+ Show Spoiler +

On May 18 2011 10:26 jaminz wrote:
I've been pretty MIA thus far, as you all have undoubtedly seen. I've been reading the thread, but just barely. I'm going to vote for Impervious after looking over his post history and reading the analysis from Kita and others.

I'm not voting for ilovejonn because the only two people who are currently voting for him are people I don't really trust (orgolove and Impervious).

I'm not voting for orgolove (yet) because I think that while his posting has been very erratic, I don't really think it's possible that scum would be that wild/weird this late in the game (and with only two of them left).

I'm not voting for redtooth (yet) because while his analysis was completely wrong in the early game, I don't think he's done enough to raise my suspicion about him to the point where I'd vote for him over Impervious. If I had to rank my top suspects it'd probably look something like this:

1. Impervious
2. ilovejonn
3. redtooth
4. orgolove
.
.
.
(5). Kitaman and some others I just have weird gut feelings about



To conclude:

He has attacked KillerSOS, EternalMisfit, and Impervious.
He has defended Amber[Light] and sinani206.
His vote patterns are extremely scummy. Twice he has made a last minute vote change that resulted in a townie being lynched.
He has in general done a lot of lurking and has not contributed well.

jaminz is scum.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 03:03 GMT
#2248
That's what I'm wondering.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 03:07 GMT
#2249
Maybe the lack of troll day posts is itself a troll day post?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 03:12 GMT
#2252
If we could get someone to do that for this game as well, that would be awesome. I'd like to see how this night turned out.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 03:18 GMT
#2256
Well, I've made my thoughts on jaminz clear. Where does everyone else stand on him right now?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 13:01 GMT
#2264
On May 19 2011 15:55 Forumite wrote:
I know who the chatic voteswitching of Jaminz saved.

##Vote: orgolove


That's something of a WIFOM argument though. He may have switched away in order to make orgolove look scummy. Vote jaminz today and we can figure out the other one tomorrow.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 19 2011 23:58 GMT
#2277
6/10 people have voted

jaminz - 2
orgolove - 2
AO - 1
ilovejonn - 1

This is another split lynch with multiple candidates. The last times we have had this there have been scum within the vote candidates. We need to lynch either jaminz or orgolove today. For the moment my vote stays on jaminz.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 20 2011 00:00 GMT
#2278
Would somebody care to update an analysis on orgolove showing how he is scum please?

I looked through every one of his posts in this thread and I am not getting a solid scum read on him. jaminz, on the other hand, is definitely scum.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 20 2011 02:42 GMT
#2280
I just finished reading over every player's posts in this thread. DropBear has posted a ton -.-

Here are the results I have come up with:

TOWN
kitaman27
Forumite
Mig
Xedat
AirbladeOrange
(ilovejonn)*

SUSPECT
jaminz

UNCERTAIN
orgolove
elmizzt
(ilovejonn)*
DropBear


*ilovejonn is in brackets because I am uncertain of him, but have definite leanings towards him being town. Yes, his votes and accusations have been remarkably scummy, but the overall feel of his posts does not make me believe he is scum.

I believe jaminz is scum, and that the other scum player is amongst the 'uncertain' four.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 20 2011 13:01 GMT
#2288
You guys are killing us by not posting. If you are town, you had better start talking more. There is no way for us to distinguish between lurking scum and inactive town, so if we want to have a chance at lynching those last two anytime soon you need to give us something to work with.


Forumite, Xedat, DropBear, kitaman27 and I have been the only regular contributors today. I'm the only one who has posted an up to date analysis on a player.

This game is becoming a mess for town. Scum can just sit back and laugh at us because nobody is actually doing anything.

GET IN HERE AND POST
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 21 2011 04:39 GMT
#2313
wtf

I'm not even sure what to think anymore. My biggest suspect after jaminz was elmizzt, but with how accurate my analysis has been the past two days, I should just consider him town. -.-


chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 21 2011 05:03 GMT
#2315
On May 21 2011 13:59 orgolove wrote:
Anyway. It's ilovejonn. Your fault for not listening to me. w.e


Oh shut up. Your condescension won't get you anywhere.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 21 2011 15:58 GMT
#2325
On May 21 2011 19:12 DropBear wrote:Here on AO. A few things have changed since then though, I had him tied to ilovejonn. He still hasn't really done enough to make me leave him alone tbh.


This has actually furthered my convictions that AO is not scum. Why is that? Because there are two or three points you made that don't quite seem to point to him being scum. I have noticed in my attempts at analysis in mafia games that if there is just one moment while writing something up that I go "hmm...this doesn't make sense if he's scum", then the player is probably a townie.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 21 2011 16:03 GMT
#2326
I would really appreciate it if everyone looked over kitaman27's posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=kitaman27&gb=date

I was convinced he was town, but I was also somewhat intrigued by how he seemed to attack almost anyone who posted in the beginning of the game. He doesn't outright accuse them of being scum, but generally just pressures them. I would like to get the thoughts of a few other players on him.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:02 GMT
#2333
Oh shit. We had a DT. We need to go back and read over his posts again and see what he was saying about players.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:12 GMT
#2340
Alright, I'm down to AirbladeOrange, Ilovejonn, and orgolove as candidates for my vote today. The post ilovejonn just quoted makes me think that Forumite hadn't yet checked orgolove, and that he hadn't actually checked a scum. If I was a DT and checked a scum player, I would be pushing for their lynch as hard as I could, complete with full analysis of those players.

I will go back through his posts and find any that might be referring to a DT check.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:12 GMT
#2341
Oh lol, many more posts quoted there. I just saw the very last one.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:22 GMT
#2344
Looking back at Forumite's votes, he was the first on sinani206 on both day 3 and 4. He was also the first on orgolove day 5 and 6. Checking over his posts now. There's a lot of them -.-

I'll report my findings when I'm done.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:40 GMT
#2347
Who I think Forumite checked:
Night 1 - Beneather
Night 2 - GGQ
Night 3 - chaos13
Night 4 - sinani206
Night 5 - orgolove
Night 6 - N/A


chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:41 GMT
#2348
^^that is all based on every one of forumite's posts from night 1 onward, who he attacked, who he defended, etc.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 03:49 GMT
#2350
I never even thought of that -.- GG town lol

I really hope orgolove isn't a miller. I'm just going to go ahead and vote him now. I think the other scum is either AO or ilovejonn
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 04:05 GMT
#2351
elmizzt, Xedat, and Mig, what do you think of AirbladeOrange?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 05:00 GMT
#2353
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote:
I was very suspicious of AO before for how little he has contributed but now I am not so sure.


What made your opinion on him change?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 05:11 GMT
#2356
On May 22 2011 14:05 Mig wrote:
And if orgolove does flip miller we really have to consider why the mafia would kill formite instead of kita.

Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite.

If orgolove flips red I think it mostly clears ilj and we can safely lynch kita.

If orgolove flips miller we still lynch kita because then it doesn't really make sense for them to kill formite and let kita live.




And what do we do if orgolove flips vanilla townie?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 05:19 GMT
#2359
I have a few problems with what you're saying:
-You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it
-You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town
-You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather.

Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum.

AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 05:40 GMT
#2363
On May 22 2011 14:05 Mig wrote:Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite.


There are a few reasons they may have killed Forumite.
1. To send town into WIFOM - "He was pushing hard for orgolove, we should kill him."
2. orgolove is scum, and they didn't want the lynch leader alive for another day.
3. They picked up on a huge blue tell, as quoted.

+ Show Spoiler +
On May 08 2011 07:04 Forumite wrote:
Keeping with Sandrobas suggestion, I´m checking Amber and Cthsazsa. Unfortunately I can´t get a good read on them.

About Amber. Reluctant to point fingers. Talks a bit about Chaoser, but mostly defending himself. Calling attention to the nightkills. Would have lurked much better unless tunneled by Chaoser.
Vote on Kurumi for the weak posting. Good music in his Profile.
OMGUS: Wall-of-text'ed Chaoser, not a real Omgus but that wall was almost as scary as Redtooths rules.
Took no votes at all during Day 1, but tunneling from Chaoser.

Cthsazsa, initially no real accusations, talking about inactives and how noone looks scummy. Claims noobtown. Soon starts with FoS. Objects to redtooth and his rules. Defends himself by brushing away accusations or being rude. Not afraid to get attention.
FoS and votes on: AO, Conversion, Irish, Beneather, Forumite, VarpuliS
OMGUS on: Conversion, Chaoser, possible others
2nd most votes Day 1 (5 after Kurumis 13)
Fun fact: Jackal who voted on Cth died.

_________________
Crude postcheck, I probably missed a lot of things against them. Right now I get red/bluetell from Amber, red/green from Cthsazsa. A lot of it depends on who you decide are obvTown, because the accusers are more or less the same for both. With Cth battling or accusing Conversion, Irish, two scummy players, makes me doubt the idea of lynching either of them.

I´m having trouble backing a lynch on Cthsazsa OR Amber, and will keep my vote on Irish for now.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 05:52 GMT
#2366
On May 22 2011 14:47 Mig wrote:
1. Do you really believe this is true? Forumite has argued for and voted for ogolove for 2 days straight if he was still alive he would still be pushing orgolove. If orgolove is town they would want forumite alive. Instead they could have easily killed kita who is a pro town vet. The only reason for them to kill forumite if orgolove was town is if they didn't have another good option to kill but kita is right there.

2. Right if orgolove is scum gives perfect motivation for forumites death.

3. I doubt this is the case. If they picked up on a blue tell they probably would have killed him much sooner. That post is from like day2.


1. Probably not, but it is still a possibility
2. Is the most likely
3. There is no way to tell for sure. They could have gone looking back through the thread to see if they could find a blue tell.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 06:00 GMT
#2367
On May 22 2011 14:51 kitaman27 wrote:
I'm not sure one way or another on AO or elm. I'll have to take a closer look at them in the next cycle. Dropbear is another person I will probably have to further examine. You can use this post to hold me accountable to post my thoughts then.


I suggest you do it today. We pretty much have a free day to discuss, seeing as I doubt anyone will be voting for someone other than orgolove, so we may as well take advantage of it.

I'll assume you overlooked my question earlier. What do you think of Mig?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 13:35 GMT
#2378
On May 22 2011 16:18 Mig wrote:
ILJ and AO both voted recently. What are your guy's thoughts on me/kita?

Who do you think is suspicious / want lynched after orgolove?

Chaos what are your thoughts on me and kita?


kitaman27 - I am quite sure that he is town at this point. It is rather strange that a veteran player would still be alive at this point, but if I'm not mistaken, ilovejonn and one other (AO?) are relatively experienced as well. I had a strange feeling about him earlier, and went back to make a case against him as being scum, and I was nowhere near convinced by my own argument. His posting has been consistently pro-town.

Mig - You are one of the player who didn't quite stand out to me as much. I looked back through your posts and figured you were town. It took me a little while to find where forumite was pushing orgolove so hard, so I thought it odd that you were pushing for orgolove's lynch so hard. I decided to put a little pressure on you, and you responded well enough for my suspicions to be allayed. I am still not entirely sure that you are town, but I think you're more likely town than scum.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 13:37 GMT
#2379
On May 22 2011 19:32 orgolove wrote:
Hm. If Forumite actually checked me he probably wouldn't have kept accusing me.

Still.

I'm holding my vote on ilj. And I made my point plenty of times why my vote is on it. Don't make me repeat myself.


An up to date post analysis would be helpful. If you start acting pro-town enough you might actually make me believe you're a miller.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 13:39 GMT
#2380
On May 22 2011 16:40 elmizzt wrote:
I voted orgolove last cycle, and I will do so again based on the same reasoning as before. Forumite's role reveal only strengthens my belief that org is scum.



On May 22 2011 21:35 Xedat wrote:
Second of all, I don't think kita is scummy only because he is alive, as mafia kills the people that are most trustorthy and not the ones that are most veteran.

All lynches after todays greatly depend on weather or not orgolove is mafia.



What do you two think of AirbladeOrange?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 16:59 GMT
#2383
On May 23 2011 01:40 AirbladeOrange wrote:
Next in line are probably DropBear and Kita, maybe jaminz.


Why? (jaminz is dead btw)
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 18:45 GMT
#2385
Why are DropBear and kita your next suspects after orgolove?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 20:45 GMT
#2386
AO hasn't answered my question, kita said he would be on to answer, and Mig and I are about the only regular contributors.

Town, if you're wondering why you lose games, this is it. If you can't post regularly, at least make sure you put forward your thoughts when you do. We're lacking in both quantity and quality, and all scum has to do is sit back and laugh.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 22 2011 21:29 GMT
#2388
I say we leave it for the usual length of time. The more time we have to discuss, the more likely we'll actually catch scum. I don't think kita is scum. Either that, or he is doing a really good job at hiding it.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 23 2011 03:20 GMT
#2391
On May 23 2011 10:26 kitaman27 wrote:
I know I said I would post analysis today, but I'm feeling pretty dead at the moment, so it will come tomorrow. Sorting through hundreds of posts is a pain -_-


Promising to post analysis and then refusing to? Scum.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 23 2011 11:57 GMT
#2395
On May 23 2011 20:04 kitaman27 wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 23 2011 12:20 chaos13 wrote:
On May 23 2011 10:26 kitaman27 wrote:
I know I said I would post analysis today, but I'm feeling pretty dead at the moment, so it will come tomorrow. Sorting through hundreds of posts is a pain -_-


Promising to post analysis and then refusing to? Scum.


Twisting my words? Scum.


:p

My thoughts on players

TOWN
-Xedat: Replacement player. Has actively contributed since joining the game. It would be easy to lurk as a replacement player, as no standard of activity has been established.
-Mig: Actively scumhunting. Pro-town attitude consistently

SUSPECT
-orgolove: Tunneled by DT for two days. Scum or miller.
-AirbladeOrange: Very scummy vote pattern, not always pro-town. Lurker. Tied to ilovejonn. Almost every day they vote the same person.
-ilovejonn: Tied to AO. Lurker. Very scummy vote pattern, and not always pro-town.

UNCERTAIN
-elmizzt: Inactive. Not enough recent posting for me to get a read on. Posts throughout the whole game are suspicious.
-DropBear: Relatively inactive. Questionable posts and scumhunting. Most likely town though.
-kitaman27: Experienced player still alive Day 7. Promised to contribute analysis and then failed to. Over all a 'strange' feel about his posts. Definitely nowhere near enough to base a lynch on. Most likely town.


This town is pathetically inactive.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 23 2011 12:02 GMT
#2396
EBWOP: Formatting made prettier and stuff added.

On May 23 2011 20:57 chaos13 wrote:

My thoughts on players

TOWN
-Xedat: Replacement player. Has actively contributed since joining the game. It would be easy to lurk as a replacement player, as no standard of activity has been established.
-Mig: Actively scumhunting. Pro-town attitude consistently

SUSPECT
-orgolove: Tunneled by DT for two days. Scum or miller.
-AirbladeOrange: Very scummy vote pattern, not always pro-town. Lurker. Tied to ilovejonn. Almost every day they vote the same person. Did not respond when asked twice for explanation on his suspects.
-ilovejonn: Tied to AO. Lurker. Very scummy vote pattern, and not always pro-town.

UNCERTAIN
-elmizzt: Inactive. Not enough recent posting for me to get a read on. Posts throughout the whole game are suspicious.
-DropBear: Relatively inactive. Questionable posts and scumhunting. Most likely town though.
-kitaman27: Experienced player still alive Day 7. Promised to contribute analysis and then failed to. Over all a 'strange' feel about his posts. Definitely nowhere near enough to base a lynch on.


This town is pathetically inactive.


I want Xedat's thoughts on this - if AO was scum, would he really ignore my request for an explanation of his suspects? It is an extremely scummy move, and no mafia who would do something that obvious would have been able to stay alive this long.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 27 2011 02:49 GMT
#2473
It works out that I was killed, since I have been busy the past few days and didn't have reliable internet access.

Good game everyone active players :p

Give em hell town.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 27 2011 19:35 GMT
#2499


chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 30 2011 03:01 GMT
#2635
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 30 2011 03:21 GMT
#2660


I should have been more confident with my analysis of kita. I had some doubts though, and let them sway me. Excellent playing kita.

ilovejonn, I honestly thought you were town. There was so much evidence against you, I have no idea how you managed to survive this long.

And town - BE ACTIVE.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 30 2011 03:33 GMT
#2680
On May 30 2011 12:30 Mig wrote:

Also please for the love of god if you are town defend yourself. Do not just disappear and do not vote for yourself.


This, so much.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 30 2011 03:54 GMT
#2697
I didn't play very well in this game. My analysis was weak, and tbh I really didn't put too much effort into anything. The first few days were just a clusterfuck, and I pretty much skimmed over everything. I guarantee that my next game(s) will be better. Learned so much from this one, and many thanks to Ver and Qatol for being some excellent coaches.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
May 30 2011 12:45 GMT
#2712
On May 30 2011 18:07 Node wrote:
Show nested quote +
On May 30 2011 17:07 Mig wrote:
Oh also anyone know who exactly forumite checked?


I'm too lazy to produce a full action list for everybody, but I can give you who Forumite checked:

N1: Irish_Punk13
N2: orgolove
N3: sinani206 (at this point gm and I were lolling because Forumite had gotten 3 red checks in a row, Forumite PMd us wondering if it was possible to be an Insane DT leading to further lols)
N4: redtooth
N5: jaminz
N6: ilovejonn (Forumite died N6)


You should have tried harder to stop us from lynching redtooth and jaminz, since they didn't bother to defend themselves. 3/6 mafia checked though, that's impressive.
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