EPTTL Mafia XXXIX - Page 2
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I'm not convinced on EternalMisfit yet. I started out thinking he was scum with the analysis posted on him, but he has given off more of a town feel to me. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I am going to have to vote for Sinani206. The final thing that decided it for me was this: On May 11 2011 14:39 sinani206 wrote: OK, I'm catching up, just skimmed the thread and planning to read more in-depth later. I will not comment on anything until I'm fully awake though. He posted it six hours ago, and hasn't come through with an in-depth post. This is exactly what Irish did, and he flipped red. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
For today at least I'm voting Sinani206, unless a better candidate pops up. | ||
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chaos13
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On May 13 2011 11:58 kitaman27 wrote: Secondary Scum Suspects 23. Impervious - Few posts to go on based on the double replacement. Came out looking bad after the sinani lynch. I might consider swapping him with ilovejonn. 17. DropBear - On the wrong side of the first two lynches and role claims at a weird time. Thoughts might change based on the analysis he is promising before the day post. 21. chaos13 - Defends irish day one and then appears apologetic, votes for Cthsazsa day two I would like to point out that I did not vote for Cthsazsa. I was the third vote on Amber[Light], and it stayed there. I have in fact never voted for Cthsazsa. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 13 2011 22:40 Impervious wrote: I'm still confused about Jackal's death though. I mean, if the plan was to use his death to misdirect us, nobody actually tried to do that, and one of the best candidates for a misdirection would have been sandroba..... Well he was one of the more experienced players, and he had already shown that he would be fairly active, so perhaps they wanted to take out a potential future threat. Maybe they misread him as a blue. Chances are it was this combined with his tunneling of Cthaszsa that made him a good target. Who are the remaining veteran mafia players on here? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 13 2011 22:22 redtooth wrote: Erm. I'm still here guys, just sitting back after my analysis was shown to be flawed. But I'd like to reiterate the following - we should wait until day to start doing analysis UNLESS you would want a vigi hit. Seeing as we're not sold 100% on Sinani, might as well wait to see who gets killed and what they flip. Even if your analysis was flawed, you shouldn't sit back and watch. Continue to analyze and continue to discuss things with people. The more input you get from others on your thoughts, the higher the chances you will find a flaw and be able to get a better idea of what is going on. What do you think of sinani206 at this point? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 15 2011 12:33 Varpulis wrote: May I now state that town is not utterly awful? This time it was a lynch that was unaffected by roleclaims. With sinani flipping scum, I'm pretty confident that ilovejonn isn't. I'm also quite suspicious that orgolove is. He could very well be the godfather. I think it's time to look at the experienced players who haven't been active and town friendly lately. That list includes, but is not limited to: redtooth orgolove jaminz thoughts? Any more names you think should go on that list? Impervious, if we are to believe Sandroba's last posts were correct. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
jaminz, redtooth, orgolove jaminz made an extremely suspicious vote switch that saved sinani206 redtooth's activity levels have plummeted. He is voting without posting. No excuse for a veteran player to do that. orgolove has been pushing for the wrong people's lynch. He could just be mistaken. I had a game like that recently - I FoS'ed nearly every town player, and none of the scum ones. Of the three, I am the least sure of him, but perhaps someone else has found evidence against him that i haven't. | ||
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chaos13
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chaos13
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Now, this one is going to be slightly difficult to do, as this player spot has been replaced twice, and each new player will have a different style. I will analyze only Impervious' posts right now. When sandroba asked Impervious to do an analysis of kitaman27, he did so promptly. The verdict he came up with was "suspicious". The reasoning behind this verdict was very weak. However, he did not outright label him as scum. This sort of wishy-washy analysis is not what we need. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 00:39 Impervious wrote: Analysis of kitaman27 Verdict: Suspicious. Reason: His list for scum includes 2 confirmed scum, a confirmed town, and redtooth. The scum on his list were heavily lurking, and were also identified by other people before this point, so he didn’t really bring much info here. Especially since one was mod killed due to inactivity. I’m really not sure what to make of it. I find this highly ironic, since the vast majority of his posts have been spammy, and he’s asking others to stop spamming. Ok, that wasn’t actually scummy, just thought I’d point out something that you might get a chuckle out of. When it came time to actually lynch on Day 2, he was very resistant to switching to Amber. At least, until chaoser claimed DT. Then he switched immediately. Could easily be a bus. However, this post really stood out to me when I first read it: After switching his vote almost immediately, he suddenly put up some resistance? That seems really, really weird for someone who’s played more than a few games of mafia. Anyone with a power role needs to take advantage of their role as much as possible, and if you’re town, hindering that plan is a bad move. And it’s quite clear that chaoser had a plan from that post. The vast majority of his posts are spammy/no content. I know I play a lot like that as well, so I know that is not suspicious of itself. He’s an anti-lurking oriented player. And I can totally understand that as well. Getting the lurkers to participate more can also help the mafia as well though, because it doesn’t allow blues to blend in by lurking as well. This is particularly useful for roles like medics. The truth is, I’m not suspicious of him because I think he’s scum, I’m suspicious of him because I can’t peg him as town. He’s someone I want to watch, but not even consider lynching at the moment. He’s been asking questions which seem to be pro-town, but I’m still not sure. Now, another thing I’d like to bring to everyone’s attention: Did anyone else notice something weird about the night kills on the first night? I didn’t really notice it until doing this analysis….. Aidnai, KillerSOS, and Jackal58 were the targets. Aidnai was a strong supporter of redtooth’s initiative. He also made a post earlier on in the night which signified that he had a blue role without actually spelling it out. Seems like a logical hit. But why were KillerSOS and Jackal58 killed? Jackal is famed for his tunnelling, which could easily be manipulated or at least attempt to manipulate it before killing him (if I was mafia, I know that I’d want to keep him alive as a townie, unless he had a blue role). And since KillerSOS seemed to be a suspicious player, as a member of the mafia, I can’t see it being a stretch to actually push for his lynch at a later date….. And I did not get a vibe from him that he was blue. I’m not sure about it, but I’m thinking that maybe the mafia is more inexperienced than I initially expected them to be. I can’t think of a solid reason for “why them?” Shortly after saying that he finds kitaman27 suspicious, he states that he would argue against a lynch on him. He keeps changing his stance, and not actually committing to anything. He then goes on to argue that they need a 'good lynch today' and votes EternalMisfit. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 22:24 Impervious wrote: Ok, so I misinterpreted your mixup during the switch. Still seems kind weird though. I would not push a lynch on you, in fact, I would argue against it. We already have 2+ good suspects, and adding another right now (like you did recently) is not going to help the town much, because it will be much easier to be misdirected when there are more suspects thrown in our faces. And, if we get a good lynch today, we'll really handicap the mafia. + Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 22:50 Impervious wrote: ##Vote: EternalMisfit I'm sure we can all agree that the thoughts of players with confirmed alignments turn out to be useful. Here is one of sinani206's posts that includes Impervious. It states that the three people are his votes. Now, would sinani206 have voted for all townies, or would he have included one of his scum buddies in there to blend in? I think it is more likely that he voted Impervious because the scum team had already seen that it was possible they could lose a member to inactivity. Kevconsim/Impervious was inactive, and it would make sense for the scum team to get a lynch on one of their teammates that would die anyway, and prevent town from getting two kills, as we did when we lynched one and Irish was modkilled. + Show Spoiler + On May 14 2011 03:17 sinani206 wrote: OK here are my three votes 1) Kurumi 2) Kevconsim (Impervious) 3) EternalMisfit I was really nooby day 1 and I couldn't follow the discussion, so I voted for Kurumi because there seemed to be lots of good arguments against him that I agreed with and I couldn't find anything to add. I voted Kevconsim day 2 because Rising_Phoenix had been very inactive before he was replaced and then Kevconsim was too. I didn't see Node's post about him. Even though he had an emergency, Impervious is also not contributing, so he could still be Mafia. I voted EternalMisfit because it was a lynchrace between him and me and I didn't want to die. There were also a lot of good arguments about him earlier in the day that I agreed with. The conclusion I have come to based on the above evidence is that Impervious is scum. He has not committed to any calls on alignment when asked, has a weak attack of kitaman27, and is tied to a confirmed scum. I think that the reason he has not been called out on it before is that this player spot has been changed twice in the past, and that makes it difficult to analyze. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
My vote preference as of now: 1. redtooth 2. Impervious 3. jaminz 4. orgolove 5. ilovejonn However, I will not cast my vote until more people have contributed. If we all help out, this game is in the bag. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 17 2011 08:48 Impervious wrote: I'm with DropBear. We need to be decisive right now. Throwing out several targets right now is not going to get us anywhere. chaos13, I realize it looks bad for me, based on what little time I've spent in this game (especially since, why would anyone have a role that needs to be replaced twice?). And, at this point, I fully expect to be lynched at some point in the near future. I was asked to analyze kitaman earlier in the thread. I honestly don't have a solid pro-town or pro-scum read from him. I believed that there were better targets at the time, even though I wasn't convinced he was actually town. That's why I'd actually argue against a lynch of him. Does that make sense? I wasn't actually trying to attack him..... And, when it came to the EM/sinani thing that happened earlier - I don't want the town to be so indecisive - it's too easy for the mafia to manipulate. We need to be decisive with our lynches. The bolded is contrary to my analysis of you. We have several targets right now because there are several people who have been acting scummy. If we analyze them, we can cut out a suspect or two and be that much closer to winning the game. Who do you have solid pro-town and pro-scum reads on then? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I would like someone to post analysis on jaminz, orgolove, and ilovejonn. It will help me make my own thoughts on them clearer. | ||
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chaos13
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chaos13
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redtooth is my top suspect right now. | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 17 2011 09:09 Impervious wrote: Lynching ilovejonn would just be cleaning up the link between him and EM. Suspicious to a few people. Maybe not the best lynch possible, but I don't think it's a bad one. Varpilus did a good job analyzing redtooth earlier. I had a pretty solid pro-town reading earlier in the game, but now I'm not so sure. I wouldn't want to lynch him right now, because he has the potential to contribute a lot, and we'd miss out on that if he's town and we're doing the wrong thing. There's been some people who have been too quiet for my liking. jaminiz is one of them. I wouldn't be against lynching him today (since he seems scummy to some people + lurking), simply because a lurker/less active poster will not help us later on, assuming the worst case scenario of a mislynch. Alright, let me point out a few things I'm having problems with here. To begin with, you state that you would be okay with lynching jaminz because he is inactive. This is immediately after you state that you do not want to lynch redtooth, even though he is being inactive. redtooth being inactive is great cause for worry. He is a veteran player, which means that at this point he should be contributing regularly and helping town out. He was even the last person to vote for sinani206, and didn't post reasoning for it in the thread. redtooth should be way more suspicious than jaminz right now. You also state that you would be okay to lynch ilovejonn, just to clear up the confusion about him and EternalMisfit. Not because you think he is mafia, but because people are confused about him. | ||
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chaos13
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chaos13
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