TL Mafia XXXVIII - Page 3

On April 13 2011 16:08 Protactinium wrote:

It's illogical not to claim. Do you really think that in a game without PMs and in a situation where I'm going to get shot tomorrow night by Assassins I'm not going to tell the town that I've found a red?

I have to claim at this point. Otherwise I'm just going to get shot by Asssassins during Night 2, and there's your best blue down the drain. There's honestly nothing else to it: I either claim and prove myself by having Coagulation lynched, thus drawing Medic protection so that I can continue searching, or I die to Assassins Night 2.

On April 13 2011 17:28 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Good now I know you're full of shit.

Because I'm the veteran. And unless this is a no medic tons of veterans set-up, there is almost NEVER more than one veteran.

Veteran is also the EASIEST and SAFEST fake roleclaim for mafia.

bye coagulation

On April 13 2011 18:01 Coagulation wrote:
I want you to feel that Flamewheel.
FEEL IT. THINK IT LONG AND HARD.
You damn well know you took a GAMBLE. And you lost buddy.
Its a shame you had to take me down with you. but you lost.

On April 14 2011 10:37 GMarshal wrote:
Oh, actually I do want to hear one response from the assassin

Flamewheel, what result, exactly did coag return?

On April 14 2011 10:55 GMarshal wrote:


you sir are not a DT, because that is not how DT's funcion in this game. DTs here return a role from which you must infer alignment. You didn't claim your check revealed coag to be a goon or a roleblocker, because you had no way of knowing that that is what you would get back as a dt, you didn't check coag last night because you are an assassin, hence you dont know if he is scum and if he is you dont know what role.

Can we now as a town ignore the assassin?

On April 14 2011 11:03 GMarshal wrote:
too late liar, I already nailed you to the wall. There's no squirming out of this one.

On April 14 2011 11:28 DoctorHelvetica wrote:

It says reveal their "true profession". This does not necessarily imply that they will not get alignment.

On April 14 2011 11:30 GMarshal wrote:


Well then I guess I have no choice but to claim. I'm a DT. I will *not* reveal who I checked as to not put them into any danger. I was hoping to keep this as a surprise to the scum in the lategame, but I'm not going to let the assassin get away with shit.

On April 14 2011 06:19 Mr. Wiggles wrote:



Ok, so I just got home from school (last class of semester, yay!), only to open up the thread, see who died, and find 15 new pages of information. So, there's been a lot of debate on Flamewheel's DT claim, and how he fingered Coag as red, and I'd like to add my own thoughts to it.

Information available to me:

-FW claimed Assassin Day 1, in an attempt to secure the mayorship
-FW is a veteran, and lauded analyzer
-FW has now claimed DT, saying he checked Coag and that he is Mafia
-There are no Framers
-Coag has claimed Veteran, and is adamantly defending himself

Thoughts:

I'm personally inclined to believe that at this point, FW is either an Assassin or a Detective. I'm not going to entertain the idea that he's a Townie or Mafia. If he's a Townie, then this is very anti-town play, because he could have easily claimed the mayorship without any kind of claim, and now he's faking being a DT. That would mean he's involved in two major lies, but hey, he'd probably be having fun :p. If he's mafia, then this doesn't make much sense either, as again, he could have easily claimed the mayorship without any claim, and then everything that follows would be complete insanity, though if he were somehow mafia, it would follow closely to my thoughts on if he were an assassin.

So, without further ado:

Case 1: Flamewheel is an Assassin

Then, his claim day 1 is a very strong power play against the other assassins. He would assure himself immunity from them, while also having complete security from accidental hits from mafia or vigilantes. There is nothing illogical about a Black trying this.

However, he never made it into office. This then leaves him in a bit of a tight spot. Mafia have no reason to shoot him if he's black, so he'll probably live through Night 1, but he needs to find a way to live at least past night 2.

So what can he do? Claim detective, and put his strong analytical skills to work. A lot of people seem to be mistaking that just because FW claimed he used a check, he must be DT because Assassins can't use a check Night 1, without considering the possibility that he used no check at all (Looking at you, new players). All game long, I've had to read how in awe people are of his scum hunting skills, so considering this, it would be relatively easy for him to pick out at least one potential scum candidate and make a case against him, using the fake DT check as extra leverage.

This fits in with his motivations of self-preservation. If he's wrong, so what? He just gets killed which, and this is important, he would have anyways after claiming Assassin AND Detective. If he's right, then he can potentially attract medic attention, and live through the night, which is his optimal move at the moment.

Case 2: Flamewheel is a Detective

Then, according to him at least, his claim day 1 was a draw to get mafia and other assassins to attack him, so he would have more information to work with. However, in doing so, he most likely lessened his chances of actually making it in to office. So, this is not illogical, but is more of a choice of information over security.

So, as he would have expected, he did not make it into office, but was free to use his check last night, on Coag, with it coming back as mafia. Now, he needs to build his case against him, but in order to get town to actually believe him, he has to claim his real role, Detective.

This will allow him to lynch a scum, and draw medic protection so he can continue checking. It also dissuades Assassins from hitting him, so he can continue to help the town.

Why Coag's Flip Will Reveal Nothing Useful About Flamewheel:

Let's say that Coag flips Town (Green/Blue). Then FW is lying, and is an Assassin. His gambit has failed, and now the other Assassins will kill him overnight. This reveals nothing to town, only other Assassins.

Let's say that Coag flips Mafia. This reveals nothing to us about FW. All it shows is that he might be a DT, or he's a good analyst. We don't know anything about his alignment, only that he can pick out scum. (Which is useful but has dangers, addressed later).

My Opinion:

I'm personally inclined to think that Flamewheel is an Assassin. While both scenarios are sound and have nothing inconsistent in them, I find the first one to be more likely. After a failed claim and run at the mayor, this is exactly how a good player like FW would have to play it in order to have any further chance at winning. If he were a DT, there are many different ways he could have played out Day 1 and now Day 2, and pretending to be an assassin seems to be one of the oddest. This means that his case on Coag is entirely analysis, and should be treated as such, though keep in mind this does not necessarily lessen the case on him.

How we should proceed:

Lynching Coag?

Lynching Coag is only an option if we have been convinced that he is a member of the mafia. If you are only convinced because of the claim, but not by analysis, then I urge you to reconsider your decision. If you are convinced by the analysis, then nothing is really amiss. The only oddities I see with Coag is that he hasn't seemed quite as aggressive and spammy as earlier games (The same applies to Jackal), so this might be due to his claim, or to his being mafia, both are possible. In my opinion, we should consider if there are other scummy targets who we can lynch, as Coag has claimed Veteran. Like GMarshal (and others) have said, we can use a vigilante shot on Coag tonight to see if he is Red or a Veteran. This might require the Vigilante to claim, in order to assure its authenticity, but then we either have two confirmed townies, or two confirmed scum (If the shot is faked). This is debatable however, so I'd like to hear other people's thoughts on it.

Medic Protecting Flamewheel?

Again, this is debatable. I don't think we should lynch him really, as we are either lynching a Detective or an Assassin, both of which are bad for town (The Assassin less so). So, we are left with the decision of either leaving him to die by Assassins or Mafia, or protecting him to continue to analyze and possibly check. He'll be targeted by either or both factions because of his two claims. Assassins will hit him as they think he is an Assassin, or Mafia will hit him as they think he is a Detective. So, should we protect him? From my perspective, no. We will not know his role until he either flips, or is investigated himself and that information is made public. This means that we can only trust in him so far as his analysis and scum hunting goes. However, as I mentioned earlier, there is an inherent danger in this. Flamewheel has a reputation as a good analyst. If he is an assassin, he can very easily analyze the players he believes to be the other Assassins and put a spin on the analysis so that his final conclusion is Mafia. This entails that he'll be using town to kill his competition, wasting our lynches. This is the first reason for not protecting him, the next being that it won't do him any good anyways. Right now, he is a prime target for both the Mafia and the other Assassins, and there is a high likelihood that they will stack, when there is a separate 3-5 KP that might be aimed at him, from the mafia spending one, and anywhere between two to four Assassins all wanting to kill him. A medic protecting him is a waste. If people want to increase his chances of surviving the night, a much better choice is to place a watcher on him, as then we may net ourselves a Mafia and collaterally, the names of potentially several Assassins.

So Who Do We Lynch?

At this point in time, I don't know. What we should do, is pull back for a minute and start scumhunting. Several people have created several analysis, and I'm sure there are more that can be made if the town starts actively analyzing. At the very least, this will give us more information, as everyone will either analyze, or will be analyzed, giving us something to work with in the coming days. Hopefully we can find someone worth lynching in the next day and a half, and if not, we may be forced to reconsider the Coag vs. Flamewheel debate.