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1.) no group can afford to take out everyone in the item game but their player as he instantly is revealed (e.g. if the mafia teams takes out all the greens and hangs the 3rd party well, who the mafia is becomes evident)
Basically this, mafia can't afford to take out too many townies in the item game cause then black or town will figure out who the red is and kill/lynch them, making the chances of the scum team getting the items 0%. Same thing for black players except they only have to fear lynches.
Because of that, item players are relatively safe. Lets say black and red use all 3 KP to kill items players, that leaves 1 town, 1 black, and 1 red. 2 in 3 chance to lynch an anti-town and then 1/2 chance to protect the right person from night kill? Seems pretty good.
But if bum isn't protected we've effectively lose a blue.
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EBWOP: And you seen to have forgotten that we almost certainly have medics too. They can protect people in the item game you know.
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On March 25 2011 08:53 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:44 annul wrote:
what?
are you just trolling or do you seriously think that its 50% chance for a "good" outcome in the actual game? No, that wasn't a serious analysis. I was merely pointing out that I too can pull figures from my ass and say the maths are sound if they add up. By electing a town mayor from the item game you do increase the chance of town winning it. That is obvious, but your other arguments are terrible. -Electing mafia as mayor essentially is an autoloss in that case -Electing a black is bad too. People are less inclined to lynch a mayor unless there is a lot more evidence against them, so it will increase his survivability. Finally, and this is the big bit, we give up having a 100% clear mayor with a circle behind him.
argue directly against my math, then. don't try to skirt off with some flawed argument by analogy. tell me exactly how my math is wrong, not that it is possible to come up with wrong math. its quite possible. my math, however, is not wrong.
"electing a red mayor in item game is an auto loss." it would be very bad, yes, but not an auto-loss. but that is a 1/6 chance to happen. giving mayor to the black would be bad but only insofar as its bad for green to not have it. black gains nothing, relative to item game powers, with mayorship.
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On March 25 2011 08:56 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:53 deconduo wrote:On March 25 2011 08:44 annul wrote:
what?
are you just trolling or do you seriously think that its 50% chance for a "good" outcome in the actual game? No, that wasn't a serious analysis. I was merely pointing out that I too can pull figures from my ass and say the maths are sound if they add up. By electing a town mayor from the item game you do increase the chance of town winning it. That is obvious, but your other arguments are terrible. -Electing mafia as mayor essentially is an autoloss in that case -Electing a black is bad too. People are less inclined to lynch a mayor unless there is a lot more evidence against them, so it will increase his survivability. Finally, and this is the big bit, we give up having a 100% clear mayor with a circle behind him. argue directly against my math, then. don't try to skirt off with some flawed argument by analogy. tell me exactly how my math is wrong, not that it is possible to come up with wrong math. its quite possible. my math, however, is not wrong. "electing a red mayor in item game is an auto loss." it would be very bad, yes, but not an auto-loss. but that is a 1/6 chance to happen. giving mayor to the black would be bad but only insofar as its bad for green to not have it. black gains nothing, relative to item game powers, with mayorship.
Did you not read my post? Blacks DO gain with mayorship, as it makes them a bit more lynch proof simply because people are much less inclined to lynch the mayor.
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United States22154 Posts
On March 25 2011 08:53 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:50 GMarshal wrote:
Can you seriously not see why bum is the person who should get the mayorship unless the mafia grows some balls and counterclaims? (or the blues if bum is mafia [doubtful]) yes, i seriously can not see why bum should get the mayorship. that's only been my entire case all day
Ok, let me break it down for you then.
Lets take our premise, bum is one of 4 things 1.) Insane Townie, 2.) A Blue, 3.) Third Party 4.) Mafia
lets make Mafia and Third party one category as third party is pretty much like the mafia, except less interested in the mayorship, and lets eliminate one, becuase if thats the case I lose all respect for bum forever.
So bum is either 1.) a Blue 2.) Lying scum
Lets assume he is Blue, then thats great we just elected a mayor with a blue circle and with who knows what powers, we gained an advantage, even assuming the precense of a role blocker its still a pretty good deal.
Lets assume he is red, then a blue WILL counterclaim (this is optimal play) we lynch one to figure out the alignment of the other, worst case, we lynch the blue and get a red tommorow, best case we have a confirmed blue for medic protects.
If a red counterclaims then we get the same scenario as above.
So essentialy we have a claimed mouthpeice for the blues, which we might have to sacrifice to kill scum if there is a counter claim.
Do you see it now? Its just logic...
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On March 25 2011 07:09 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 04:55 Lanaia wrote:On March 25 2011 04:52 annul wrote:
lanaia
where do you normally play mafia? I've played a couple on mafiascum.net Otherwise I play with a bot on irc. where on IRC? have you ever played on efnet?
I play on globalgamers.
I've never played on efnet.
I'll reread the thread (I currently have five pages to catch up on) when I come back from dinner.
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Imma go to sleep because this isn't going anywhere.
Just remember, if you're to hipster to vote Bum, there's always Rean!
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On March 25 2011 08:54 Mr. Wiggles wrote:
Ok, so my point still stands. You either have terrible logic, or you slipped. The exact same scenario happens if you kill the red day 1, too. In that scenario, it will just end up being: Mayor Town vs. Black, same results. Blacks are only bullet-proof, not lynch-proof, and the only people capable of killing reds outside of lynches are power town roles. I'm saying there's no difference between going after either scum party in the item game, after you said you wanted to specifically target blacks. Black only has an auto-win in the item game if you never lynch them, so do some analysis after, and hang them before they get to the end. Red is also a danger in the item game, I'd say even more so than the blacks because of their higher KP. I never mentioned anywhere about the different mayors possible in the item game, just your insistence on the blacks without any convincing reasoning.
I'm leaning to saying you are Red. If you were a green player in the item game, you would be worried about lynching anti-town forces in the item game, not just blacks. You wouldn't be worried about black's bulletproof-ness either, because you can't rely on killing powers, you'd have to rely on lynches. If you were red however, you'd love to get the mayorship, so that you could be immune from getting killed by the blacks. You'd also love to have day 1 snipe against the blacks. And lastly, you'd have an easier time lynching the black in the game than he would have of lynching you. Your reactions aren't helping.
He slipped. He's been called scum 3 times now ignoring them all. Just hoping it goes away.
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On March 25 2011 09:00 deconduo wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 08:56 annul wrote:On March 25 2011 08:53 deconduo wrote:On March 25 2011 08:44 annul wrote:
what?
are you just trolling or do you seriously think that its 50% chance for a "good" outcome in the actual game? No, that wasn't a serious analysis. I was merely pointing out that I too can pull figures from my ass and say the maths are sound if they add up. By electing a town mayor from the item game you do increase the chance of town winning it. That is obvious, but your other arguments are terrible. -Electing mafia as mayor essentially is an autoloss in that case -Electing a black is bad too. People are less inclined to lynch a mayor unless there is a lot more evidence against them, so it will increase his survivability. Finally, and this is the big bit, we give up having a 100% clear mayor with a circle behind him. argue directly against my math, then. don't try to skirt off with some flawed argument by analogy. tell me exactly how my math is wrong, not that it is possible to come up with wrong math. its quite possible. my math, however, is not wrong. "electing a red mayor in item game is an auto loss." it would be very bad, yes, but not an auto-loss. but that is a 1/6 chance to happen. giving mayor to the black would be bad but only insofar as its bad for green to not have it. black gains nothing, relative to item game powers, with mayorship. Did you not read my post? Blacks DO gain with mayorship, as it makes them a bit more lynch proof simply because people are much less inclined to lynch the mayor.
but this is in the hands of the town, something we can actually control. this argument is extremely tenuous.
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i fully intended to say "kill the black."
if i am elected mayor, it would be suboptimal to kill the red in item game. i posted my math immediately when you challenged me originally, but YOU conveniently ignored that, too.
if anything, it is you who looks quite suspicious at the moment.
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We don't even have to lynch one. We just don't elect them as mayor. Then, more blues will claim (this is the optimum scenario), and we either: get to 4 people on each side, and we get 4 confirmed scum vs 4 blues who will be protected/elected/etc.
You guys don't get it, but it would be in town's BEST interest for something like this to happen. 4 non-town down so fast, leaves 6 baddies out of 10. Epic start to the game imo.
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On March 25 2011 09:01 GMarshal wrote:
Ok, let me break it down for you then.
Lets take our premise, bum is one of 4 things 1.) Insane Townie, 2.) A Blue, 3.) Third Party 4.) Mafia
lets make Mafia and Third party one category as third party is pretty much like the mafia, except less interested in the mayorship, and lets eliminate one, becuase if thats the case I lose all respect for bum forever.
So bum is either 1.) a Blue 2.) Lying scum
with you up until this point.
On March 25 2011 09:01 GMarshal wrote:
Lets assume he is Blue, then thats great we just elected a mayor with a blue circle and with who knows what powers, we gained an advantage, even assuming the precense of a role blocker its still a pretty good deal.
Lets assume he is red, then a blue WILL counterclaim (this is optimal play) we lynch one to figure out the alignment of the other, worst case, we lynch the blue and get a red tommorow, best case we have a confirmed blue for medic protects.
If a red counterclaims then we get the same scenario as above.
So essentialy we have a claimed mouthpeice for the blues, which we might have to sacrifice to kill scum if there is a counter claim.
Do you see it now? Its just logic...
if he is a blue, it is good that we elected a blue mayor, yes. but it would be BETTER if we elect a green in item game mayor. sure, if we cant get that, a blue mayor is a good thing. but with a 4/6 chance to get the green mayor in item game (and a 1/1 chance if you elect me!) then the chance to win SIX items is worth much much more to us than a blue mayor.
if he is a red, the blue will not necessarily counterclaim, again, for reasons ive stated multiple times in the thread. just for you, ill do it a 17th time: sacrificing a blue for ONE scum is a horrible trade when its 10 scum 20 nonscum; furthermore, the blues may have abilities worth much more in the long term than one scum death.
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On March 25 2011 09:05 annul wrote:
i fully intended to say "kill the black."
if i am elected mayor, it would be suboptimal to kill the red in item game. i posted my math immediately when you challenged me originally, but YOU conveniently ignored that, too.
if anything, it is you who looks quite suspicious at the moment.
I have a great desire to kill scum. Their color doesn't really matter to me atm.
Your fixation is somewhat fascinating.
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Lets make Kenpachi Mayor Initiative
Anyone vote me?
Plz. i need votes so we win
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On March 25 2011 09:09 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 09:05 annul wrote:
i fully intended to say "kill the black."
if i am elected mayor, it would be suboptimal to kill the red in item game. i posted my math immediately when you challenged me originally, but YOU conveniently ignored that, too.
if anything, it is you who looks quite suspicious at the moment. I have a great desire to kill scum. Their color doesn't really matter to me atm. Your fixation is somewhat fascinating.
blacks can only die to lynch/mayor kill
reds can die to those PLUS black's KP.
therefore, we should try to find the black since we have to be the ones to pull the trigger on him.
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@ annul:
Let's come to a conclusion here.
It is good to pick a blue mayor.
It is BETTER to pick a green mayor from item game.
It is most horrible to pick a red mayor from item game.
It is "just bad" to pick a black mayor from item game.
So, you know, we have "better" against "horrible". Unless someone counter-claims, we have the blue. I don't want another game that ends in mass murder. So I'd rather NOT take the chance of picking that red, even if the odds are slim.
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Id like to quickly bring up something as well off the topic of electing mayor as really we can be multi-tasking and accomplishing more things with our free time.
LYNCHING BLACK VS REDS
Blacks
Are Bulletproof
have 2kp(???)
Can shoot TOWN AND SCUM
will BLOCK SCUM SHOTS
will BLOCK VIGI SHOTS
We must note that if scum hits someone and they dont die they may claim vigi and try to out them as a black while they could be vets or medic protected.
Really watch for scum to try to out somene by faking a black claim.
Scum
2kp
Can be hit by vigis and Blacks
Can be lynched
Have a godfather
Just by power analysis Blacks are a blessing and a curse as they may end up eliminating scum as well as some of our own.
Hell they might even hit GF
Yet as they are bulletproof id like yo ask town something
If we have a black suspect and a red suspect who do we lynch?
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On March 25 2011 09:13 annul wrote:Show nested quote +On March 25 2011 09:09 Jackal58 wrote:On March 25 2011 09:05 annul wrote:
i fully intended to say "kill the black."
if i am elected mayor, it would be suboptimal to kill the red in item game. i posted my math immediately when you challenged me originally, but YOU conveniently ignored that, too.
if anything, it is you who looks quite suspicious at the moment. I have a great desire to kill scum. Their color doesn't really matter to me atm. Your fixation is somewhat fascinating. blacks can only die to lynch/mayor kill reds can die to those PLUS black's KP. therefore, we should try to find the black since we have to be the ones to pull the trigger on him.
I'm well aware of that. Got an FoS this morning for pointing it out.
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On March 25 2011 09:18 OriginalName wrote:
Id like to quickly bring up something as well off the topic of electing mayor as really we can be multi-tasking and accomplishing more things with our free time.
LYNCHING BLACK VS REDS
Blacks
Are Bulletproof
have 2kp(???)
Can shoot TOWN AND SCUM
will BLOCK SCUM SHOTS
will BLOCK VIGI SHOTS
We must note that if scum hits someone and they dont die they may claim vigi and try to out them as a black while they could be vets or medic protected.
Really watch for scum to try to out somene by faking a black claim.
Scum
2kp
Can be hit by vigis and Blacks
Can be lynched
Have a godfather
Just by power analysis Blacks are a blessing and a curse as they may end up eliminating scum as well as some of our own.
Hell they might even hit GF
Yet as they are bulletproof id like yo ask town something
If we have a black suspect and a red suspect who do we lynch?
Black 1st of course. Red the next day. The odds of that particular scenario occurring though is unlikely.
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It would be hilarious if you guys killed the all page before Day 1 even starts 
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EPT
