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On February 03 2011 11:03 Kavdragon wrote:
Otherwise, this game is about killing scum, not SK's.
This is the only thing I disagree with that you've said so far. In my opinion, this game is about lowering KP. The less KP there is = the fewer people die every night = the longer the game goes, and as town we want to drag the game out as long as possible.
Everything else you've said has been very good, though. I still think we should lynch LD today, but you've convinced me about bum.
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SHUT THE FUCK UP WITH THE MEMES JESUS CHRIST
Also, LD, thanks for claiming and clearing that up. now, I have three questions for you. I don't care if you breadcrumbed them through clues and shit earlier, just answer them straight up, please.
1: Did you take a hit at some point?
2: Are you trying to say that bumatlarge is scum?
3: Are you trying to say that Kavdragon is scum?
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Jesus, relax, I just got back. I'm switching my vote now.
Also, what the hell, shoot me instead of a confirmed mafia player? Major FoS on Jackal, Coag, darmousseh and Impervious for being absolutely fucking idiotic. In NO SITUATION is that ever a good plan, LD just wants revenge on me for pushing heavily for his lynch.
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On February 04 2011 09:02 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +Based off of public information, we do NOT know that BrownBear is scum. Lunar, I know he tried to kill you, but that doesn't mean he's scum. If you want to build an analysis against him, that's fine. Is there another reason that you want to kill him? He is an experienced player but used false logic: LD is SK and missed shots. He sucks at scum hunting and is not likely to shoot mafia in the future even if he is kept alive.
Color me impressed by your in-depth analysis of me, complete with it's own table of contents, index, and fancy color-coded chapters. Bravo.
Also, Jackal, you have shown me absolutely no reason to trust your analysis or clue-hunting, at all.
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Oh no, I didn't contribute as much as the SK! Clearly, I must be scum! Whatever will I do, my cover has been blown!
Ok, sarcasm mode off, but seriously, I get that you hate me because I pushed for your lynch. If you really think I'm scum, why don't you post some real analysis as to why.
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ANALYSIS: DARMOUSSEH
I've had this niggling doubt about darmousseh for a while now, and I've decided it's time to figure out what he is, once and for all.
VITAL INFO:
Posts in thread since start of game: 100 (quite the busy boy)
Profile Picture: A fan blowing 2 vuvuzelas (noise, instruments, anything similar)
Quote: "May the forcefield be with you" (forcefields? this isnt that helpful)
Profile: "I like mountain dew, programming, baseball, football (the real kind, not hand-egg), sci fi, starcraft 2, civilization 4 (5 is ok), and my wife of course
I'm 24 (agh old) and live in san jose, ca where i make websites all day. Oh yeah, i'm born on christmas day"
CLUE CONNECTIONS:
Day 1: crescendo, band breaking into another song, could relate to the vuvuzela. Very shitty connection, though
Day 2: That blood-curdling scream, nothing an animal could make - vuvuzela? A better connection than Day 1, certainly. I guess that depends on Node's sense of humor.
Day 3: Can't really see much
Day 4: Can't really see much either...
Ok, so clues are a wash, but analysis > clues, so lets go over his posts.
ANALYSIS OF DARMOUSSEH:
He starts out with the usual /confirm, excited about playing post, then a one-liner about how scary the possibility of a scum mayor is, then some real-life justification as to why bodyguards are public. Nothing out of the ordinary here. Disappears until after the Day 1 post.
On January 25 2011 01:45 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 01:39 darmousseh wrote:
Who should be volunteering as bodyguards? Those with blue abilities or just normal townies? I would expect voting just normal townies would be best which I why I would be willing to volunteer myself. Also, being a townie is kinda boring.
First 2 posts since the REAL start of the game, is a noob question and a greenclaim. Greenclaims mean nothing, though (doesn't mean he's lying, just that over half the game can claim green, so mafia can very easily hide amongst them). He also volunteers to be a bodyguard. This is an interesting thing to do. We've spent a lot of time talking about how high-profile targets bodyguards will be, and as far as I can tell this is dar's first game. It's a strange move for a newb townie to volunteer to a position that at that point, we all thought was going to die in the first couple cycles. New players tend to try to live as long as possible (a perfectly rational response), so the only way this makes sense is if dar already has experience with this setup. But that makes no sense for a couple reasons:
1) This is a weird setup (normally roles flip on death and bodyguards are randomly and secretly selected)
2) If dar was experienced, why would he ask noob questions in the first place?
So yeah, there's that.
On January 25 2011 02:10 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 01:58 BrownBear wrote:I'm comfortable with RoL for the time being... at least, more comfortable than I am with anyone else except Dr H, and he's thrown support behind RoL. It's no offense to Kav or kitaman, I just don't know their playstyles as well. On January 25 2011 01:39 darmousseh wrote:
Who should be volunteering as bodyguards? Those with blue abilities or just normal townies? Nobody should be volunteering yet, I don't think volunteering is a good strategy. If we volunteer greens, it lowers the number of people in the pool of potential blues, so mafia can easily bluesnipe. If we volunteer blues, it's basically saying "HEY MAFIA FREE BLUES GO GO GO" Blues' greatest asset is their anonymity and the ability to hide amongst the greens, and we want to preserve that as long as possible. I see, that makes sense.
This is the first in a recurring theme of dar's posts where someone says something and dar just quotes them and posts a 1-2 line agreement. This happens a lot. Now, I understand that a lot of players post some posts like this (hell, I do), but not with the frequency dar does. Now, I'd like to draw everyone's attention to something Jackal just posted.
On February 04 2011 10:25 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2011 10:18 BrownBear wrote:On February 04 2011 09:02 LunarDestiny wrote:Based off of public information, we do NOT know that BrownBear is scum. Lunar, I know he tried to kill you, but that doesn't mean he's scum. If you want to build an analysis against him, that's fine. Is there another reason that you want to kill him? He is an experienced player but used false logic: LD is SK and missed shots. He sucks at scum hunting and is not likely to shoot mafia in the future even if he is kept alive. Color me impressed by your in-depth analysis of me, complete with it's own table of contents, index, and fancy color-coded chapters. Bravo. Also, Jackal, you have shown me absolutely no reason to trust your analysis or clue-hunting, at all. I freely admit to that. What I do know is scum needs to contribute nothing but agreements and town self destructs all by itself.
Jackal's absolutely right, he's just aiming his criticism at the wrong person. I've been actively trying to analyze, come up with ideas, help town, etc. etc. dar is doing exactly what a good scum player would do - just agree with the masses. In short, he's a sheeple at best, and scum at the very worst.
On January 25 2011 07:35 darmousseh wrote:I'm a little confused right now.
Calls out RoL for acting weird about his mayoral campaign. Good call-out, actually.
On January 25 2011 09:04 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 08:26 Nemesis wrote:We stilil have plenty of time to change votes. Woot, looks like RoL is now seriously running  RoL for mayor everyone! And I seriously don't want to have kavdragon for mayor. He is pushing for a scummy plan right from the beginning with the bodyguard volunteering. It has already been covered by multiple people why that is a bad idea. Even if only 4 people volunteered, that still narrows down the list of blues. And there is still the same chance of picking mafia as before(mafia can just volunteer). There is no advantage to town whatsover to volunteering bodyguard. Well theres a few scenarios 1. Mayor is townie or blue. Volunteers are both townies, mafia hits bodyguards and then hits mayor. Pro: Get 3 days of information Cons: lost 3 townies, no information on mafia 2. Mayor is townie or blue. Volunteers are both scum. Mafia hits bodyguards, we get 2 mafia right away. Mafia doesn't hit bodyguards, in like 4-5 days we role check the bodyguards. Any case, mafia lose both bodyguards. 3. Mayor is scum. Volunteers are both townies. Mafia kills bodyguards. Mafia doesn't do anything, mayor eventually lynched. If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then highly likely mayor is scum. 4. Mayor is scum, volunteers are scum. (Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor?). Scum gets tons of information. Scenario 4 is obviously the best scenario for scum, but the fact that kavdragon is suggesting volunteers means that he will either 1. Choose the volunteers himself (which is an indication of scum) or 2. let the town choose the volunteers based on voting in the thread. In either case, if kavdragon was scum, then he would want to hand pick his bodyguards (and hide the fact that he was hand picking).
Ooh, a serious post. Takes a look at each scenario that could play out. It's a bit simplistic, though. And his logic is flawed in several spots. Take a look at scenario 1: The pro is we get 3 days of info. The con is we get no info? I'm confused. Or Scenario 3: If mafia doesn't kill bodyguards, then mayor is scum? Mafia hasn't killed bodyguards yet, but that's due to medic intervention + mafia possibly getting mindgamed by medics. Pretty sure Kav is town. If not, he's one of the best mafia mayors TL has ever seen.
Point is, this post reeks of bad logic. And we all know what bad logic means.
On January 25 2011 17:19 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +On January 25 2011 16:45 BrownBear wrote:
RoL has the better plan for the mayorship IMO. However, Kav has been more far more active than RoL.
Makes this tough. I wish we had more than 2 serious candidates. I think part of it too is that so much rides on the mayoral candidate. They are the key to getting important information and a centerpiece to persuading townies to look at certain facts and viewpoints.
This is a post that states the obvious, but makes him look smart and knowledgable, as though he's contributing. In short, a pretty scummy post.
On January 26 2011 05:29 darmousseh wrote:Show nested quote +
Option 4: Vetclaim: Two Veterans claim, they are chosen as bodyguards.
Upside: Vets are tough to kill, make excellent bodyguards. Essentially make mayor invulnerable for at least 3-4 cycles.
Downside: Reds can STILL claim to mess it up (and they will.) Vets more useful hidden amongst the town, to soak hits. No guarantee this setup has two vets.
Verdict: If it wasn't for the fact that reds can claim, I'd be in support of this idea. I personally think vets would be more useful ensuring we have census for basically the entire game than sitting in the silent majority, hoping they can soak up a hit. However, there's no way a smart mafia team wouldn't have a goon claim vet, with no way to prove/disprove it, and that's a 66% chance we run into the 1 town-1 scum setup. So no.
I think this one is the best. upside. Vets are tough to kill, and can be protected if necessary, mayor can live a long time. Anyone that claims to be a vet and ends up not being a vet as a bodyguard would be instantly identified as scum. Scum will probably have 1 person claim vet, in which case we can use role checks to check out the identities. Also, in the end, if vets aren't used to soak up kills, then they are wasted. By volunteering for bodyguards we can almost ensure that their abilities are used for the benefit of town. Also if we get lucky and get 2 vets then the mayor can be alive for almost the entire game if played correctly. The other thing too is that we would be less likely to lynch a vet since they will be selected as bodyguards and not in the pool of people we would want to lynch. downside. Reds can claim and mess it up, but they will be identified more quickly and it will be more of a risk since that will mean 2 reds lynched and 2 vets still in town. I'm still trying to think of the risk of an SK getting chosen to be a bodyguard.
Interesting... Very interesting... it's like he didn't even read my verdict. There's no way that 2 reds would claim vet, and even if they did, how does that mean we get 2 red lynches and save 2 vets? At best, we probably lynch one vet and 2 reds. Nevermind the fact that this wouldn't happen. Most likely scenario is 1 mafia claims, we have 3 vet claims, we end up picking 2 of them as bodyguard, mafia gets a scum bodyguard, at least 1 vet gets killed early on, and our vets were useless. It's almost as though he really wants this to happen, he made the idea sound so appealing by highlighting an absolutely best-case scenario where 2 mafia claimed vets and the real vets didn't.
I could go on, but I haven't even reached the end of day 1 and I'm already almost convinced.
TO SUMMARIZE:
1) darmousseh plays the noob card quite a bit, asking very nooby questions, but then contradicts that by posting a lot of clarifying posts that are intended to make himself look smart and informed.
2) darmousseh posts these clarifying posts as a way to appear active and helpful without actually being so.
3) when darmousseh actually posts analysis or ideas, they're very shoddy and have bad logic.
4) darmousseh is very sycophantic, more so than the average player, especially to those posting big long analysis posts.
CONCLUSION:
The fact remains he has tenuous to zero clue connections. However, given his play so far, I have no problem FoSing darmousseh as Probably scum.
If people aren't convinced, I'm more than happy to analyze more of his posts, but this post is long enough as is.
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Go read Godfather mafia, it's a great example of a no-flip game in which town wins.
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Holy shit that is indeed a god damn novel.
I'll look it over and rebut it later, if it even needs rebuttal.
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On February 04 2011 13:06 Coagulation wrote:Show nested quote +On February 04 2011 12:03 BrownBear wrote:
Holy shit that is indeed a god damn novel.
I'll look it over and rebut it later, if it even needs rebuttal. you seem to have a very shitty attitude this game. im gonna hope you are in fact scum and just playing the role otherwise i have lost a lot of respect for you.
Maybe I'm just frustrated with the lack of good town play from a significant chunk of people this game.
Although honestly, I don't really see how I'm that far out of line, especially considering what you have posted in the past.
Regardless, focus on the game, not individual attitudes. If you have a problem with my attitude, take it up with me after the game.
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LunarDestiny: The noblest of SKs.
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On February 05 2011 07:38 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On February 05 2011 06:52 LunarDestiny wrote:On February 05 2011 06:06 Foolishness wrote:
Don't kill yourself dude. That's just bad sportsmanship really (even given your situation). It's also extremely unfair for the mafia in this game who are still trying to win.
If you want a better reason, if I was mafia in this game, I would argue that you killing yourself violates your "play to win" condition, and that you should be banned for it. We'd have to ask Qatol the lawyer to interpret this law which is probably a path you don't want to go down =D Given my current situation, if I was to "play to win," I will have to obey town and shoot who I was told. That is even more unfair to mafia if I was to "play to win." Not really, town still lost XXXV when the SK cooperated with us.
On the flip side, town won XXX convincingly when every single ninja cooperated with them.
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Man, this game went from town being in major trouble to town having basically won in one cycle.
One. cycle.
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i mean, it's going to be 2 unless Eti was mafia for some reason.
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I love you might be a weird, fucked-up roofie pill. I'm not sure.
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I'm actually going to say that at this point in the game, I'd be very surprised if a DT was still alive. Or maybe there weren't any DTs in the first place.
Actually, though, by this point for the DTs to have not managed to check a mafia would be absolutely pathetic. I'm guessing they died early.
(note: if you are a DT out there and you know a mafia, CLAIM IT. We need that.)
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I wouldn't really consider lynching Jackal, he's too noob to be mafia IMO.
Right now, my main suspect list consists of:
Cubed
Impervious
Divinek
I took darmousseh off after revisiting him and re-evaluating my earlier analysis. I kind of agree with the fact that his contradictions and missteps seem more borne out of inexperience than malevolence, but I'm still keeping an eye on him.
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Oh man, GG town. Glad we finally broke the curse.
Apologies for getting less and less active as time went on, but classes started back up for me/I spent more time in PM land plotting with Kav than actually posting in thread.
Never managed to protect anyone, but at least I didn't accidentally lose the game for town this time :D
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bum - the instant I stopped believing you was when Kav revealed himself to be medic to me and I thought "hold on a second, 3 medics?"
So you would have been screwed either way, it just would have taken slightly longer.
Also, I still stand by my decision to want to lynch LD first over bum - the reason being lowered KP is more important than killing 1 mafia. We had no guarantee LD would work for us (even though he ended up doing so), and killing him ensured he wouldn't kill town. Plus, we could have just said "vigis hit bum tonight" and one of them would have done so.
Ah well, it all worked out in the end
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EPT
