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On February 01 2011 04:13 bumatlarge wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 03:51 deconduo wrote:On February 01 2011 03:21 Nemesis wrote:On February 01 2011 03:13 deconduo wrote:On February 01 2011 03:06 Nemesis wrote:On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it.
Looking back at d3's list of suspects:
Nemesis
Darmousseh
Beneather
kitaman27
Eti307
LunarDestiny
GMarshal
Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather.
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
You have some nice WIFOM there as your argument. Not a whole lot of reason to take out d3 other than he pointed scum? No one was even following d3's list at the time, and I doubt they anyone would follow it with how inactive he has been. Can't think of any other reason why mafia would kill d3? How about doing what you are doing now and framing the people he suspected? -In what way is that WIFOM? Its a pretty good idea to kill off someone who suspects your entire team. Obviously theres no proof of that being the reason he was killed, but its a good theory imo. On the other hand, your argument is WIFOM. -Nice chainsaw defense of beneather, I like how you completely ignored all the clues against him. I wasn't defending beneather, I was attacking your bad logic, and as I said before I don't care too much about clues. Yes, I know what I said is WIFOM, but what you said is also WIFOM, and I am pointing that out to you. I have just showed you how it is WIFOM by creating a probable scenario which contradicts your WIFOM situation. I am not going to let you bait me into an argument over WIFOM as I'm sure you would like to divert attention from important matters once again. I will however clarify my logic: -I feel that the clues point quite clearly towards beneather being the scum that killed d3. It is also much more likely that it was a mafia kill rather than an SK kill. -As d3 had already pointed out suspicions towards beneather, amongst others, this would be a good motive for the kill. OBVIOUSLY only the killer (or his team) knows the exact reasoning behind making a kill, however it does no harm to speculate especially on an unexpected kill. -I know that all the times I've been mafia, I've always tried to kill people who get too close to working out who we are. You can see I was thinking about this early when I looked over at who had been killed so far. This was before I suspected Beneather at all. Finally, lets take a look at the people who lynched RoL and saved Nemesis on day 2: bumatlarge LunarDestiny Nemesis darmousseh Beneather kitaman27 Eti307 kavdragon (switched) Notice any similarities? Oh wow didn't notice that before. Are sure D3 wasn't just basing off his suspects off that list anyway minus Kav and myself? (as we seem to have been the only ones actually really going into RoL's analysis in detail) I'll give this a chance. You're suggesting nemesis for the lynch then?
Oh shit, good point. On checking up, Beneather, kitaman27 and Eti307 are there because of voting for RoL. Still, the rest still stand.
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On February 01 2011 04:00 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Pretty confident he's scum, clues fit well and he had motive to kill d3. Its possible that d3 fingered a large portion of the mafia team, which would be the reason they killed him off. Theres not a whole lot of other reasons for it.
Looking back at d3's list of suspects:
Nemesis
Darmousseh
Beneather
kitaman27
Eti307
LunarDestiny
GMarshal
Of these I think Nemesis and Beneather are certain mafia. Lunar is high up on the list as well, he completely ingored beneather as a possibility for the dog meat clue and tunnelled me instead. Probably trying to divert attention from beneather.
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Ok a few things bother me about this post. 1. Completely no mention of jackal...trying to save your scumbuddy here? 2. Killing town's census over a WIFOM argument over speculations on d3's death. Ace has mentioned it before in TMM3 when aidnai mislynched in LYLO because of speculating on why mafia would fakeclaim being roleblocked, "You don't know what mafia knows" so you shouldn't speculate too much on what they might do. 3. And in his post after, I don't see how you jumped to the conclusion that I was defending beneather when I was clearly at the top of your list. The obvious conclusion would be I'm defending myself. Trying too hard to connect factions here?
2. Getting 2 mafia 100% for mayor is worth it imo
3. Yes you were defending yourself obviously, but its the fact that you completely ignored the case against beneather which lead me to that conclusion. Seeing as beneather is most of my argument, you just conveniently skipping past that bit and attacking me instead is a sure sign of a chainsaw defence.
1. I should mention Jackal why exactly? This is massively contradictory; I'm scummy for saying you ignoring the crux of my argument is a chainsaw defense of beneather (which it is) Yet, me not mentioning Jackal when it has nothing to do with anything I'm saying means I'm his scumbuddy? Yeah, dig yourself deeper.
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On February 01 2011 04:22 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
What does Jackal have to do with anything I've been saying?
I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die.
Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor? I am very certain that dog meat is a clue pointing to a killer. I recall only you and Beneather have dog related profile. I am super reluctant to lynch a bodyguard. Also, scum bodyguard protects scum mayor.
How nice of you to join us. Why did you completely ignore the dog in beneather's profile when you voted for me? Not to mention the fact that there are a shitton more clues pointing to beneather.
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On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor. Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea? + Show Spoiler +On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo
Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected.
I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails.
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On February 01 2011 04:32 GMarshal wrote:
"My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum."
My only issue with this is that if Beneather is mafia then its possible for mafia to stack hits on me and make sure I die, and then they get a free mayor kill, I'm actually up for anything that confirms me as a townie, but I dont know if its worth giving the mafia a chance to deprive us of the census.
Yeah, this would actually be the worst case scenario, so meh probably not a good idea in hindsight. Might be something to think about later on if we still have a vig.
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On February 01 2011 04:49 Kavdragon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:37 deconduo wrote:On February 01 2011 04:29 Kavdragon wrote:On February 01 2011 02:53 deconduo wrote:
Its hard to ignore the connections to the mayor as well, the 2 picked bodyguards and one of the biggest campaigners for him.
My thoughts are to lynch Nemesis today and for vig (if we have one) to target kav tonight. If he dies it confirms Beneather and GMarshal as scum.
Out of curiosity, is this an FoS? Having a vig hit me is a bad idea. I am 97% positive that I am protected. It's an interesting push though, something that may be very telling of you, Decon: There is a possibility that I don't think has been mentioned in regards to the kills last night: Mafia hitting D3 makes little sense. Ergo, Mafia didn't hit D3. Town asked for a Vig to hit D3, and D3 was hit. Ergo, a Vig hit D3. Mafia hit GMarshal. GMarshal's biggest contribution to the game recently has been protecting me. Ergo, Mafia are trying to kill me. Mafia have two hits, so it's possible that they hit an SK. However, hits happen in order. This means that the Mafia could hit GMarshal, then hit me, in one night. I could have been the second target. Now, let's look at what the mafia would do in that case: Gmarshal didn't die, and didn't claim Vet. Thus he's either medic protected, or he's SK. He was gone during the time that the SK didn't put in a hit, so that make them think that he very well might be SK. If Gmarshal is SK, Beneather is Mafia, then I'm unprotected. But rather than waste a hit on the Mayor (again) why not call for a vig to hit the mayor? At worst, the vig looses his hit, and at best they take out the mayor. Deconduo, what have you to say for your idea? + Show Spoiler +On February 01 2011 04:28 Kavdragon wrote:
##Unvote: Nemesis
##Vote: Deconduo Not a FOS, just something to keep around, but honestly I don't think much of it yet. Kita has been somewhat outspoken against nemesis so it is unlikely they are both mafia and I like Nemesis as scum a lot more than kita. Also I think GMarshal is probably SK or telling the truth about being protected. I must have missed the part where town asked vig to hit d3. Even if thats the case it would mean beneather is vig and there your logic fails. Uh...What? How does that mean that Vig is Beneather? Also, I asked for the vig to hit him. LINK
Clues show beneather killed d3. If vig killed d3 -> beneather is vig.
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On February 01 2011 04:44 LunarDestiny wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 04:29 deconduo wrote:On February 01 2011 04:22 LunarDestiny wrote:On February 01 2011 04:16 deconduo wrote:
What does Jackal have to do with anything I've been saying?
I don't want to kill the mayor. I suspect him somewhat but not enough to want him dead for nothing. However if he dies during the night that gives us TWO confirmed scum. I'd be happy even going one for one, two for one is amazing. Unless a/the vig has someone better to shoot, then go for it. Worst case scenario is that the mayor doesn't die.
Out of curiosity:
Do scum bodyguards protect scum mayor? I am very certain that dog meat is a clue pointing to a killer. I recall only you and Beneather have dog related profile. I am super reluctant to lynch a bodyguard. Also, scum bodyguard protects scum mayor. How nice of you to join us. Why did you completely ignore the dog in beneather's profile when you voted for me? Not to mention the fact that there are a shitton more clues pointing to beneather. Again, how sure are you that Beneather is mafia? He got masked man, dog meat, and master chef as the clue. Of the three, I strongly believe that dog meat is the most powerful clue follow by masked man, master chef is iffy. We missed both day 1 and day 2 lynch. I am not going to risk a potential bodyguard.
You already agreed that the dog clue is pretty concrete and that it could only point to me or beneather. Beneather was already a top suspect before dog meat was worked out, and yet somehow you don't agree that this puts the nail in his coffin?
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On February 01 2011 04:52 LunarDestiny wrote:
Back to discussing today's lynch which ends in about 6 hours. It's not like I will be able to convince people to lynch 1 of the 2 dog profile players.
If I have to choose between Nemesis and Jackal, I would prefer Nemesis since keywords from his profile are all over the place. His bare escape from Day2 lynch is somewhat alarming since RoL won by only 1 vote.
Yeah I came to this conclusion too which is why I am voting Nemesis and not beneather.
I want to ask you this again though, why did you go straight for me and not even mention beneather when you worked out the dog meat clue?
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Nemesis
Beneather
darmousseh
Eti307
Top of my scum list.
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On February 01 2011 19:47 Impervious wrote:Show nested quote +On February 01 2011 15:13 Coagulation wrote:
so that pic pretty much confirms jackal is town How so? All it does is tell us we're fucking idiots for following the clues like we have been.
No, it tells us we've been analysing the clues the wrong way.
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On February 01 2011 19:51 Impervious wrote:
It doesn't exclude or confirm him as any role though.....
Yes, people are looking into it too much imo.
On February 01 2011 22:13 papapanda wrote:
Some scenarios to consider if beneather and gmarshal are red(s or SKs):
a) mafia just are not killing kav and try to mindfuck town
b) kav is mafia
c) kav is SK
All three are kinda messed up so im guessing that some of the accusation towards beneather or gmarshal are wrong.
Don't forget that if GMarshal is SK and beneather is mafia, then mafia would think they need to kill GMarshal before they can target kav. This scenario coupled with GMarshal not being around during the night would explain why:
-SK didn't send in a hit
-GMarshal claimed medic saved.
GMarshal would have to claim hit or mafia would know for certain he is SK. Claiming vet is riskier than claiming medic save in this setup imo. We absolutely no way of verifying if he's telling the truth or not, as asking the medic who saved him to claim would be stupid.
Again, this is all theory. I'm not accusing GMarshal of being scum/SK yet. I wouldn't be surprised if mafia decide to sack beneather by killing kav tonight if they think GMarshal is SK. Beneather is getting lynched tomorrow anyway, so they get mayor and SK for free. Might not be a bad idea to have a medic on kav just in case. (Yes I know this is a turnaround from my previous position, but after thinking about it my plan was too risky)
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On February 02 2011 05:42 Jackal58 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2011 05:30 bumatlarge wrote:On February 02 2011 05:17 Kavdragon wrote:On February 02 2011 05:05 bumatlarge wrote:
I also need this Beneather/jackal situation explained. I've gone through their posts, and feel little difference in the motives of both. Further, Ben is a BG and Jackal has claimed vet, while I find it remarkably convenient for him to have, especially when he hasn't acted like a vet this whole game. If you are going to slide jackal the inexperienced card, I don't see why ben doesn't. And we aren't going to be looking at clues so hard after the nemesis thing? Hm... Is this directed at me, someone in particular, or the whole town? I didn't mention Jackal in my earlier post, did you mean Papapanda? Well, you can probably explain it the best. I mean Beneather and Jackal. I see little difference in their posting, and beneather is valuable by his existence and jackal has already made an excuse of why he is still here and will be here, or proved that he is not doing his job. Maybe you've already closely reviewed them both, or you are going on what everyone has said. Why Beneather over Jackal? I know you mentioned that it was unnerving that no one defended jackal, but I doubt that is the only reason. What exactly is my "job" People keep telling me what a horrid job I'm doing without saying how it should be played. 
To get hit/killed. To be a good target for mafia. To not almost get lynched.
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GG 
Well done guys. Only thing I regret is being wrong about Nemesis, sorry
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EPT
