EPTOn January 02 2011 19:10 Barundar wrote:
Mini analysis of RoL
This is more of a statement of why I suspected RoL in the first place than a proper analysis. For a real analysis see http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=44#870. I put a lot of time and effort into that.
First let’s start out with some basic facts on RoL: First class player, awesome scumhunter and a veteran of TL mafia. For this reason he rarely sees day 2.
Examples:
HPmafia: Mafia learns RoL is a vet, and decides to spend two their night vigi hit on him as well as a normal hit night one.
Pokemafia: RoL gets sniped within hours of substituting in to the game, before he even make his first post.
ExMiMa: RoL instantly coins Aidnai, and has to be substituted out since he even picks up on DrH possibly admitting he is right.
Both DrH and bumatlarge was veteran snipes. While this is admittedly an unfair shortcut, the fact that mafia leave him be on first night hit, and instead aim for a blue snipe on Deconduo, is no good for my thoughts on RoL’s alignment.
Next let’s look at what he actually does on day 1. First post: + Show Spoiler +
This is not the RoL I’ve seen in other games. He doesn’t need to give out good advice, he blatantly finds scum and hunt them relentless. I wrote this to DrH straight away, but my concerns actually got dismissed when he posted: + Show Spoiler +
Back to pointing fingers like in other threads. Good ol’ RoL, and part of why I suspected LSB. But then:
+ Show Spoiler +
Wooops back to being different. Suddenly changed opinion, and feel the need to publicly doubt himself? Day 1 in HPmafia he was confident lying to town that he actually found LSB to be green, while pushing for his own lynch on Aidnai behind the scene. RoL doesn’t need to publicly doubt himself.
+ Show Spoiler +
This is a great post, but there is 2 problems with it. The first problem is he advices town to hold off on killing LSB, because if LSB can’t prove he is blue, we can just lynch him later. This is solid and sound reasoning, and I was an idiot for not realising this myself. The problem is he leaves it like that. In all his posts the rest of the day, he doesn’t actually push the point: + Show Spoiler +
The second problem is he proposes to lynch Seraph, but he doesn’t actually push for it. This is uncharacteristic of RoL, and he knows it himself:
This is my favourite contradiction of the day. He launches Seraph as a counter target, but does nothing for it. How is that consistent with his normal town play?
Come day 2, he also stated
Well I waited for this. And it didn’t come.
There is a few other points about his posting that I noted, but is a little harder to put clearly. First of all he gets defensive and withdraws when people question him. There is several examples of this. Secondly he tries to act like he is way too good, “ruining scums day”, when fact is he hadn’t actually done anything.
Lastly, there is the whole “scumhunting with mad hatter bombs” failure. Instead of lying low, like a veteran who are most likely going to get hit, he actively scumhunts during the night by trying to place hatter bombs. This is so silly I won’t even go into it.
Now, even with all of this I was still doubting my conclusion of him being red. There was a slight possibility of him being blue. But when I knew we hit the nail with annul, since Mr.Zergling came out to soft defend, he posted this:
This post was all I needed to confirm my suspicions. This is the situation at the time of his writing: we got a strong case on annul, and several of us are pushing for him. 2 mafia are already exposed trying to soft defend annul (Mr.Zergling and OpZ). Time to abandon ship.
Now RoL has been entirely out of the discussions since his morning post, declaring town was wishy washy and that he would pick a target to push relentlessly. This never happened. Again, the question for me is, is he blue or red.
The golden rule is, blues are scared, red are hesitant. (<3)
So is RoL’s sudden activity a sign of one or the other? We already provided all the shooting power to take down annul before RoL shows up, yet now he thinks is a good time to write an analysis? If he was blue all he needed to do was to agree with us, and help us indirectly by making sure people voted. Instead he decides to get attention by writing his own analysis. This all points away from scared. When annul starts attacking him openly while ignoring the rest of us, it smells like mafia trying to earn town credit!
The rest of the day is history. RoL and annul stage a fight, trying to make it appear like RoL did something for the lynch, when all he did was show up late, and realise the train had left the station.
Mini analysis of RoL
This is more of a statement of why I suspected RoL in the first place than a proper analysis. For a real analysis see http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179009¤tpage=44#870. I put a lot of time and effort into that.
First let’s start out with some basic facts on RoL: First class player, awesome scumhunter and a veteran of TL mafia. For this reason he rarely sees day 2.
Examples:
HPmafia: Mafia learns RoL is a vet, and decides to spend two their night vigi hit on him as well as a normal hit night one.
Pokemafia: RoL gets sniped within hours of substituting in to the game, before he even make his first post.
ExMiMa: RoL instantly coins Aidnai, and has to be substituted out since he even picks up on DrH possibly admitting he is right.
Both DrH and bumatlarge was veteran snipes. While this is admittedly an unfair shortcut, the fact that mafia leave him be on first night hit, and instead aim for a blue snipe on Deconduo, is no good for my thoughts on RoL’s alignment.
Next let’s look at what he actually does on day 1. First post: + Show Spoiler +
On December 28 2010 04:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive.
So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player.
Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was.
Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish.
As an addendum to the first part of this post. I don't think DrH hit it just right. Don't waste your time checking "big name" players. Since a GF is chosen you will get back a blue/green role on them pretty much no matter what. The way I play a detective role can be seen slightly in HP mafia. There were people I thought very likely to be scum, but there were two players I couldn't decide on, but was leaning towards mafia or jackass. OpZ and Orgolove. Night 1 I decided to Orgolove, but either check would of been adequate for my criteria. Usually a host RNG's the player list and makes mild adjustments for balance. The odds of a more recognized/good player getting into the mafia is increased and therefore they are likely to be the godfather. The only game where I would say the "veteran" player IMO wasn't GF was in Salem. They chose SouthRawrea over Radfield, but that could of been because of PM's and knowing where the check was going, or because radfield knew he was going to be inactive.
So when you are a DT check someone who is playing aggressively/scummy and someone who you can't quite decide on their alignment. With a framer the odds are increased that you will get a bad check on a "veteran" player because they will either be godfather or framed. On that note though, the only real check we can use is a medic. If a medic protects someone and the day post is mafia KP-1 they can be almost 100% sure they protected someone good, especially if they are a "veteran" player.
Anyway, I don't like making it seem like the DT role is so important which this seems like, I in fact view DT as a handicap that clouds a persons judgment. I would rather trust my behavioral analysis over DT checks any day of the week. I urge the utmost caution in using DT checks in this game, because I don't feel like having SouthRawrea 2.0 after I die and everyone becomes too stupid to realize who the leak was.
Anyway, I got work in a little bit I will probably be back around 10ish.
This is not the RoL I’ve seen in other games. He doesn’t need to give out good advice, he blatantly finds scum and hunt them relentless. I wrote this to DrH straight away, but my concerns actually got dismissed when he posted: + Show Spoiler +
Back to pointing fingers like in other threads. Good ol’ RoL, and part of why I suspected LSB. But then:
+ Show Spoiler +
On December 28 2010 05:12 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I got my defense wrong! I have a strange idea. I think both annul and LSB might be mafia, this little tiff is exactly what annul/KJ did in ExMiMa although this is a little different. I know LSB is a better player than to attack his attacker AS mafia, its kind of an odd tell. My first thought was that he is probably town and just thought the analysis was scummy. But the analysis seems fine to me. The arguments almost feel a little forced too if you read through it. This is definitely something to keep in mind.
I got my defense wrong! I have a strange idea. I think both annul and LSB might be mafia, this little tiff is exactly what annul/KJ did in ExMiMa although this is a little different. I know LSB is a better player than to attack his attacker AS mafia, its kind of an odd tell. My first thought was that he is probably town and just thought the analysis was scummy. But the analysis seems fine to me. The arguments almost feel a little forced too if you read through it. This is definitely something to keep in mind.
Wooops back to being different. Suddenly changed opinion, and feel the need to publicly doubt himself? Day 1 in HPmafia he was confident lying to town that he actually found LSB to be green, while pushing for his own lynch on Aidnai behind the scene. RoL doesn’t need to publicly doubt himself.
+ Show Spoiler +
On December 29 2010 05:26 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Alright so I finished catching up. I am really unsure about this whole LSB/Annul thing. But one thing I am sure about is that we CANT risk losing ANY blue role. We have no chance as winning as a town if we are throwing blues away day 1. The reason we aren't all green is because we REQUIRE blues to win. Judging by his initial claim LSB is a vigi but tried changing what he said because he didn't want to be so obvious with his claim but it doesn't matter.
With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead.
Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1.
Seraph
A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia.
One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait.
At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill.
In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information.
We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all.
Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it.
And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them.
Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness.
This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced
Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory.
The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason.
Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia.
The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched.
With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets.
Alright so I finished catching up. I am really unsure about this whole LSB/Annul thing. But one thing I am sure about is that we CANT risk losing ANY blue role. We have no chance as winning as a town if we are throwing blues away day 1. The reason we aren't all green is because we REQUIRE blues to win. Judging by his initial claim LSB is a vigi but tried changing what he said because he didn't want to be so obvious with his claim but it doesn't matter.
With a vigilante claim the mafia has a real incentive to kill him tonight to get rid of mafia KP, so we will know whether or not he is mafia in 2 days. There is NO reason to kill him now, since we can hold him off as a "sure thing" day 3 if he hasn't killed someone by then or is not dead.
Now for RoL's badass analysis of the game, raping Red's day 1.
Seraph
A nothing post, just the pregame jovial attitude usually shown by mafia.
One of my favorite little tells that a lot of people give off is format speculation early on, he is one of the first to discuss it. Seraph and LD. Although a LOT of people have done it in this game because their was a new role I think we can view this as an additional circumstance to his "mafia" behavior since a lot of people exemplify this strait.
At this point he gets on the"lets lynch inactives" train and trying to figure out how to define inactives. First off I am going to say this right now. Fuck lynching inactives. It is such a stupid plan most of the time, lynching an inactive does two VERY anti town things. One it provides ZERO information because generally there is no vote split on inactives its usually a unanimous decision among the town, and on top of that since there is NO information to decide on who we are going to lynch because they are inactive the mafia have a huge influence over just which inactive guy we decide to kill.
In summary lynching inactives makes Day 1 a day we get NO information and on top of that the lynch is more readily swayed by the mafia, yielding our daily KP to them. It is just stupid. What annul did is exactly what I would do. Just start throwing shit and see who comes out of the wood work. Ideally though you aim to target someone who you believe is red. But either way the important thing is we are getting information.
We are going to see a recurring trend with Seraph, He doesn't really ever stop talking about inactives and mod kills at all.
Now one big thing to notice here, he advises against using KP and uses a TERRIBLE argument. This is a giant redflag to me. Why the hell would there be a better chance of hitting a blue then a red with a vigi hit? If we hold off our vigi hits there is a better chance the mafia will kill the vigi and we lose that KP too. That's roughly equivalent to telling mad hatters not to place bombs until night 3 because chances are they will just bomb a blue. It just chances us wasting our KP that we shouldn't be. On top of that if a vigi is doing ANY amount of behavioral analysis then they should be able to hit a god damn red by night 2 if they choose to, MAYBE hold it off until night 3. I generally would not recommend holding off your hit because it increases the chance of the town losing it.
And on top of that Seraph says we have more important things to discuss then vigi's, like the day 1 lynch. Alright, I can agree with that but seriously what the fuck is there to talk about if you are lynching an inactive? Exactly, nothing. Its just basically RNG whichever person not posting the mafia approves of and unanimously killing them.
Alright let me get this strait. By your agenda we should be lynching inactives and searching for them but we need to wait for people to check in day 1...? Pretty much self explanatory. So far we have seen a good amount of anti town posting from Seraph on top of a bit of spammyness.
This is one of the posts I found really interesting. The pandain wagon did make no sense and Seraph says what I think he is trying to do. We can just label it wifom. At the same time he discredits Annul saying his argument is forced
Then explains what forced means! But seriously, how is Annul's analysis forced? I read it, it felt pretty natural to me. Annul remains dedicated and keeps going for his lynch of LSB and LSB OMGUS him back which is a really shitty way to play and incredibly anti town. The thing is I also believe that could just be a blue tell from LSB believing his role to be important for town victory.
The last thing he does is FOS on Meapak but not saying ANYTHING about why. At least give some reason.
Seraph then stresses that we go back to lynching inactives while clearing up such a trivial issue between insane/haunted mafia.
The running trend with Seraph is anti town play, just focusing on lynching an inactive and really not committing at ALL on the annul/LSB situation. This could be because he doesn't want to be associated with supporting a bad lynch of either of them, or not wanting to side at risk of being exposed when his ally gets lynched.
With that being said, I strongly believe Seraph is mafia and we should lynch to kill him and hold off on the LSB/Annul situation because of how important blue roles are to a town victory. On top of that if/when LSB fails to prove his claim we get another free mafia kill that we can make a vigi use. LSB is claiming to be able to PROVE his alliance by night 2 and if he can't then well I am sure we can do something about that can't we? We just need to stay focused and get him killed then and not get distracted by other "better" targets.
This is a great post, but there is 2 problems with it. The first problem is he advices town to hold off on killing LSB, because if LSB can’t prove he is blue, we can just lynch him later. This is solid and sound reasoning, and I was an idiot for not realising this myself. The problem is he leaves it like that. In all his posts the rest of the day, he doesn’t actually push the point: + Show Spoiler +
On December 29 2010 05:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail.
False logic. There is a VERY good reason that LSB is not getting defended if he is mafia. Look at ExMiMa. I accused Aidnai HARD day 1 and was pushing him relentlessly waiting for other mafia to show themselves by trying to defend him. KJ/Annul kept their cool until I got replaced then slowly diverted the lynch. It is WAY too risky to try to launch a defensive or diversion campaign of a mafia on day 1, especially if you fail.
On December 29 2010 06:03 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
@Opz
24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong.
@Opz
24 hours of conversation can change an opinion. The reason I felt their tiff was forced was because I thought LSB would be too experienced to respond in such an aggressive manner. I may have been wrong.
On December 29 2010 06:05 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized.
As I explained a post above, I don't believe its feasible for the mafia to try to protect one of their own from such a volatile situation. It can only reveal themselves if they do it directly and it fails. Its why anyone focusing on lynching inactives or avoiding the conflict between annul/LSB should be heavily scrutinized.
On December 29 2010 06:48 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
night 2 would not change from day 2 btw. No more actions can be done between those times, unless you mean AFTER night 2. At which point you COULD be a vigi, but if you really mean the start of night 2 you can't possibly be a vigilante, and you could also prove the same thing during the Day phase while we still have the option to lynch you!
night 2 would not change from day 2 btw. No more actions can be done between those times, unless you mean AFTER night 2. At which point you COULD be a vigi, but if you really mean the start of night 2 you can't possibly be a vigilante, and you could also prove the same thing during the Day phase while we still have the option to lynch you!
The second problem is he proposes to lynch Seraph, but he doesn’t actually push for it. This is uncharacteristic of RoL, and he knows it himself:
This is my favourite contradiction of the day. He launches Seraph as a counter target, but does nothing for it. How is that consistent with his normal town play?
Come day 2, he also stated
Well I waited for this. And it didn’t come.
There is a few other points about his posting that I noted, but is a little harder to put clearly. First of all he gets defensive and withdraws when people question him. There is several examples of this. Secondly he tries to act like he is way too good, “ruining scums day”, when fact is he hadn’t actually done anything.
Lastly, there is the whole “scumhunting with mad hatter bombs” failure. Instead of lying low, like a veteran who are most likely going to get hit, he actively scumhunts during the night by trying to place hatter bombs. This is so silly I won’t even go into it.
Now, even with all of this I was still doubting my conclusion of him being red. There was a slight possibility of him being blue. But when I knew we hit the nail with annul, since Mr.Zergling came out to soft defend, he posted this:
This post was all I needed to confirm my suspicions. This is the situation at the time of his writing: we got a strong case on annul, and several of us are pushing for him. 2 mafia are already exposed trying to soft defend annul (Mr.Zergling and OpZ). Time to abandon ship.
Now RoL has been entirely out of the discussions since his morning post, declaring town was wishy washy and that he would pick a target to push relentlessly. This never happened. Again, the question for me is, is he blue or red.
The golden rule is, blues are scared, red are hesitant. (<3)
So is RoL’s sudden activity a sign of one or the other? We already provided all the shooting power to take down annul before RoL shows up, yet now he thinks is a good time to write an analysis? If he was blue all he needed to do was to agree with us, and help us indirectly by making sure people voted. Instead he decides to get attention by writing his own analysis. This all points away from scared. When annul starts attacking him openly while ignoring the rest of us, it smells like mafia trying to earn town credit!
The rest of the day is history. RoL and annul stage a fight, trying to make it appear like RoL did something for the lynch, when all he did was show up late, and realise the train had left the station.
How am I defending annul?
