EPTTL Mafia XXXIV: Pokemafia
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Infundibulum
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On December 10 2010 10:47 LSB wrote: Although lynching inactives is always a start, we shouldn't discount the power of day one analysis I've seen it many times actually. Kenpachi/Coagulation (Almost, but we switched)- Deconduo's Don't lose your village game Me/Pyrr- TLMMM 2 Masq- Haunted Mafia Bill Murray (Almost, but Ace made us switch x.x)- Penalty Mafia And many others... I don't like lynching inactives Day 1 because we run the risk of lynching someone that is going to be modkilled. Unless I am mistaken, DocH is running a rather strict modkill policy: miss a vote = modkill. So if we lynch someone that wasn't going to vote anyway, it's rather redundant. I am a man that strives for efficiency. | ||
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I already have 3 votes. Do I smell or something? | ||
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On December 10 2010 11:06 LSB wrote: Some of us (me) carry friendly grudges (my first mafia game) ^^ Oh haha, I forgot about that. If anything that should be like a compliment of sorts. Or something. | ||
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On December 10 2010 11:11 LSB wrote: Oh. By Inactive, I mean someone who is lurking, maybe making one token post in the thread that isn't anything new and doesn't attempt to contribute anything at all, but still votes every day. These are the uninterested townies, the lurkers, and the people studying for finals. Oh i see, we were kinda using different contextual definitions. Yeah by inactive i was thinking of the people that just never show up, not the 1 post 1 vote lurkers. In my experience most modkills happen during Day 1 or Day 2, a period during which it is difficult to distinguish true inactives from lurkers since they both exhibit similar behavior (i.e. very little). Lynching an 'inactive' Day 1 is always a nice neutral ground, but I feel that many people offer it as an excuse since they don't know what else to do (the same reason RNG always comes up, which is IMO worse than lynching inactives). | ||
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On December 10 2010 11:25 Gabriel wrote: Is it really efficient at this point lynch an active player over the inactive that is going to die anyways?? Really? I mean mafia is not going to die because he doesnt vote, blues are not going to die because they dont vote. Meh i want to flip infundibulum badly. It is stupid to lynch someone that is going to be modkilled because that is like not lynching anybody at all. That is what my first post was trying to say. | ||
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On December 10 2010 11:35 Gabriel wrote: Well now that you have started posting it is not "lynching anybody" to lynch you. And the big fallacy there is that we just dont know who is going to be modkilled because it is enough for a guy to vote or even abstain at the last minute. So your argument is: we shouldnt vote inactives because they are going to be modkilled, except that the ones that we want to get sniped are those that are actually not modkilled (whatever the definition of inactive you may have). Im still voting Infundibulum. Kenpachi is still missing? There is no fallacy. It is hard to distinguish active lurkers from genuinely inactive players during Day 1 to Day 2. In the interest of not running the risk wasting a town lynch I am of the opinion that we can start to eliminate active lurkers around Day 3 or probably even 2 if things go well. If you disagree with me that is fine, but I'm not sure how your logic is leading you to think that I'm red. | ||
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http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=JEEP's_Tells_for_Finding_the_Cop i would ignore the numbers part. there are some interesting articles on the mafia scum wiki, but do not take them as gospel. i gather that the playstyle over there is somewhat different. | ||
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And because the medic wants to find the cop so he can protect him. | ||
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On December 10 2010 13:09 Hesmyrr wrote: ...What? (More specifically, encouraging Cop to hide his cop-tells while encouraging Medic to protect the people who are showing cop-tells.) i know it's contradictory. but it is true that medics want to protect dts and mafia want to kill dts. i think the real point is that it does not at all hurt town to read that article, which seemed to me was what LSB was implying. | ||
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In a larger game like this medics are probably better off focusing on protecting people that are actively protown and the detective is better off not being found out. Hence me posting the ways that people tend to find the detective, so he can catch himself from falling into any common tells. | ||
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On December 11 2010 03:20 LSB wrote: For the DocH, + Show Spoiler + On December 10 2010 10:48 DoctorHelvetica wrote: and BrownBear in salem! i started that wagon ;o That didn't count, as far as I know it was Ghrur who switched the vote for you guys! If Kenpachi was scum on the other hand... Gabriel. The key thing we have to look at Gabriel is why he decided to Accuse Kenpachi. Is this because he is honestly trying to scumhunt, or is he pressured and wants to redirect the lynch The Kenpachi push looks like he is seeing someone that is lurking and wants to figure out what he is. The key point that points me is that he wants to DT check, not lynch Kenpachi (Whoops I gtg brb) Yeah i think it's obvious from Gabe's tone that he was feeling pressured. He's still picking at specific people which is more than many of us have done. Though, I don't see how are you going to determine who is lurking when players still haven't posted and it's just several hours into the game? Kenpachi hasn't done a whole lot besides defend himself either, which is something we should be picking up on. If he doesn't contribute besides defending himself then that's suspicious IMO. There's still the rest of the Day 1 though. Anyway, i don't really think Gabe is red right now. The problem though is that pretty much all the town discussion ended up focused on him which is bad because it lets other people get away with not contributing. | ||
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2. nbtnbt5 6. DarthThienAn 7. StormTemplar 12. ghrur 22. Shockeyy 25. tree.hugger | ||
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On December 11 2010 04:28 LSB wrote: The problem isn't that his post came early. 5 hours is a lot of time and enough to get a feel for how people act I disagree with this, especially considering the wide range of time zones people are in on TL. | ||
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On December 11 2010 04:15 Hesmyrr wrote: There is one possible reason why I am willing to give Gabriel null-read for now, but I am going to wait for him to come and explain himself first to see if his argument agrees with mine. Am i the only one that thinks this is a rather pointless post? | ||
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i think i'm going to put my vote on zeks. this isn't a retaliatory vote, but mostly i don't want to see the votes spread out around like 5 targets, but rather 2-3 because that makes voting analysis much easier later on. as for zeks' play, let me just say that he is almost always like this no matter what color he is. the short posts and lack of activity make him harder to read whether he is town or mafia and i've seen a few games where he actively lurks (both green and red) and tends to get away with it. i don't know how much i think he is red but i think him or kenpachi are both fine choices (at least right now, so much changes in 12 hours that everything is gonna be different more than likely because they will come and make their cases etc). that is all the time i really have to post. just try not to get spread out on several targets because this lets the mafia tip the vote to a town player. | ||
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On December 13 2010 05:33 DarthThienAn wrote: Brocket playing the newbie card quite a bit, which I don't like. But herpdederp.. This is the kind of useless post that you should look out for. What does it say? What does it do for the town? Absolutely nothing, except give Brocket an easy way out. Can easily be interpreted as a "I might need to switch my vote later on to save my scumbuddy." What does this post even mean? How do you know someone picking him is mafia? Other than the fact that you're mafia and you noticed that one of you is voting for Gabriel? Yet another wishy-washy, non-committal post. Especially the bolded part. Cool, so you've told us that Kenpachi more likely mafia than Gabriel. What about zeks? You read the analysis. You "took it with a grain of salt." "Massive sigh." Good acting  How do you know it was the mafia that framed Kenpachi? Why are you disappoint? A townie died. tbh, I don't see what all the rage is about Gabriel's posting. It's somewhat hard to understand sometimes but it's not as terrible/lacking as some others in the thread, and he's made several good points during the first day. Start contributing your own thoughts to the thread. kthxbye. -- I don't feel like explaining anymore~ the names on the list are just people who I've noticed after day 1. Let's watch who the mafia hit because it's always in their best interest to snipe people who are hot on their tails. Also in their best interest to kill off the active members, more so than blues I'd say. For example, I'd rather target a townie Qatol than a Again, these are just suspicious people. Looking back at that voting list, I think I'd throw deconduo onto my list as well. Haven't looked at his posts thoroughly, but I feel like he just came in, voted, and left. I actually think Brocket might be a smurf and he's playing the newbie card to cover that up. Some of the questions are downright silly ("the mafia know who's on their team, right?") | ||
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On December 14 2010 10:05 Node wrote: That's an interesting claim. I'm inclined to believe it -- Hesmyrr has been fairly active, has been stating clear positions on who should be lynched, and in general seems like a town-aligned player willing to put himself out there to risk hits (veteran-style play). In fact, after re-reading his posts I'm not entirely sure where the suspicions of Hesmyrr being scum have come from, and I'll be taking a closer look at those who were putting a lot of pressure on him. I think he's telling the truth, but i dunno why Hesmyrr had to tell us his role. I mean all that does is give the mafia extra information - they know now that 1 vet is down a life and whoever replaces Hesmyrr can be hit and killed (barring medic of course). All he had to say was "I took the bomb hit," and it tells us what we need to know. I'm really puzzled by the roleclaim part of it. | ||
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On December 15 2010 04:01 dinmsab wrote: My vote is on Gabriel, for now. I'm not exactly convinced he's scummy but our discussions so far are pretty unconvincing and in the middle of this shitstorm is Gabriel. Imo, I think people should start to discuss on other things rather than random bs finger pointing. People could give advice to blues on what to do etc etc, that would be much more helpful than what we're currently doing. .. and no, i'm not a blue asking for advice. If mafia wants to kill me off then do so, I don't mind taking one for the team. I don't understand why you would vote for someone you don't think is Scummy. This is also the same thing you did day 1. "Someone should really make a list of inactives" "Someone should really start giving advice to blues" If you want to do it, why not you? Some blue advice: Medics: based on day 1, it looks like mafia could be targeting active townies who are contributing to discussion. Keep this in mind for your protections. Think like "if i was a mafia, who would i hit?" that is who you protect. Detectives: people I would check if i was a detective zeks Gabriel infundibulum amber[light] ghrur With 4 hours left in the day, I think it's more important to come up with a lynch candidate. People I think are actively lurking ghrur seraph Oceanic With that said let me read the thread because I haven't read all the pages yet. | ||
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Shockeyy: voted kenpachi, but so did half the town and i can't blame any of them for doing that. LSB and amber say he is obvious scum, but they haven't said why. His defense is "why am i picked out when there are so many others?" is shitty, so Shockeyy maybe you should step up so you don't have to be picked out. Personally, i think he might be a lurking blue that was trying to avoid the spotlight and now got dragged into it. The fact that he thought kenpachi's soft blue claim was fake adds some weight to this possibility, imo. Gabriel: The man at the center of attention. He is a polarizing figure so it's understandable that he attracts votes. But look what happened today: almost immediately, people like Brocket and zeks start calling for his head. I think this is because Gabriel is an easy target: he kinda fucked up Day 1, and it's easy to push a lynch on him because of that. Look at how his behavior changed from Day 1 to Day 2, he is now much less confrontational and less active. it's hard to say if this is because he's scum trying to cover his tracks, or town who realized he went too far and tried to ease up a little. I think he is an easy choice to pick at so there are going to be both townies and mafia pushing for his lynch. If Gabriel is red, then it's a good move by them to bus him since he is so suspicious to many people. If he's town, then they can get away with it by saying "well he was playing really bad." What seals it for me is this post by Brocket, specifically the bold part" On December 15 2010 05:57 Brocket wrote: Out from left field. I didn't see GGQ coming. I agree zeks would have been voted out day 1 because of kenpachi. Honestly if Gabriel wasn't here I'd vote him too. But I've already said kenpachi and jcarl lynched and dead as townies and gabriel's strong motive to FoS zeks to survive confound the zeks-is-scum argument. I want to see gabriel's identity, since he's failed to convince me from day 1 and the only recourse is by lynch. I am set on voting gabriel because I think he's mafia. I appreciate the people so far who voted with me for day 2 because that means they've read my posts and thought 'hey that Brocket dude is pretty handsome and makes a lot of sense'. If for some outlandish reason I am delirious and Gabe turns out to be townie, I invite suspicion upon myself and throw myself onto the sword. I will vote myself day 3 because I would know that nothing I said was productive at all and I would feel guilty that I got Gabe the 'helpful' townie lynched. But until that happens, it's vote 1 gabe. Vote him dead. I have seen several times a red post something like that part and then get away with it after a townie is lynched. I am 95% sure Gabriel is being set up right now. Zeks: I think GGQ made a huge catch here and I almost want to vote zeks because of that alone. Combined with zeks going after the easy target in Gabriel, I am more suspicious of him than I was Day 1, when zeks narrowly evaded the noose. | ||
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On December 15 2010 06:51 Kavdragon wrote: One quick note. I was(am) writting up an analysis of this day's voting, and I'd like to remind people that we do have two double lynches. I actually think that we should use one right now, but if it get the town to stop bickering about Zeks and Gabe, then perhaps it will be of benefit. What do you guys think? Do we have a strategy for double lynches? Generally we want to use a double lynch before the mafia has a lot of vote swinging power. I like to start double lynching on Day 3 or 4 (remember, if we vote for double lynch on Day 3 it doesn't come active until Day 4) because around this time detectives have usually hit at least 1 red if they are playing well. In addition, if we miss the lynch today we will almost have to vote for double lynch tomorrow in order to increase our chances of catching up to the mafia in terms of kills, especially since we can't count on M2 and there is no vigilante role that is town aligned. | ||
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On December 15 2010 06:51 DarthThienAn wrote: I voted zeks, because I think he's the best chance of being mafia of the people we have now. I also haven't read the last couple pages cuz I'm busy, but I want to point out deconduo again... I'm not sure he said anything this game --useful-- other than giving a reason for his vote. good call on deconduo. notice his vote for gabe with a very short justification post in the thread. He was a bit more active Day 1 so I agree with your suspicion. | ||
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On December 15 2010 06:53 Brocket wrote: Good post Infund. Well as I said, I'm happy to vote myself day 3 should gabe be a red. I've never supported Zeks, I only suggested Gabe was a higher priority because there is evidence (set up or otherwise) pointing against him. I'll thrown in an extra. Whether zeks or gabe gets voted out as townie, I'll vote myself day 3. No worries. i think you mean should gabe be a town? in any case voting for yourself doesn't do anything, so I don't know what you're trying to prove. | ||
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On December 15 2010 07:31 Pandain wrote:\ But first, can someone just link me like a post or tell me exactly why zeks is a good lynch suspect. Sure, I can go over it: Day 1: he talked about me "slipping up" without explaining it much later when asked about it. He then gets really defensive and accuses people of overreacting to his votes, changes his vote to an inactive, and doesn't post as much for the rest of the day. But before the day ends he makes his "I think I'm dead post." GGQ correctly explained all the problems with that. Day 2: He very quickly goes after Gabriel, who as I explained before is an easy target and a good way to incite the town into an argument that can escalate out of control quickly. Aside from that I havent seen much of him. One big thing is that there's almost nobody defending him which i think is really surprising. Someone pointed out before that when a townie is going to be lynched, mafia like to defend him so they look good after the townie is lynched. So maybe zeks is red and is being bussed? | ||
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On December 15 2010 08:32 BrownBear wrote: I am here, voting for myself again because I'm not superconvinced by any arguments so far. That said, having Hesmyrr as a (mostly) confirmed town voice is nice. That is seriously all you have to say? What is not convincing? Do you have any better alternatives?? | ||
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i'd like to, but i don't think there's enough time. i think zeks is more likely to be red anyway. | ||
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On December 16 2010 13:33 LSB wrote: 3 KP + 1 SK = 4 Amber[Light]=1 Brownbear=1 Pandain=2 d3_crescentia=1 1+1+2+1=5 Explain Hesmyrr had claimed he took a hit before he was swapped out by Pandain. If that is true (which it seems like it must be true, since Hesmyrr(pandain) was blue and therefore presumably would not lie about taking a hit), then the hits do add up and d3 must have taken the hit. | ||
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He could be Mewtwo, or he could be a mafia hit by mewtwo and was protected by a medic (the latter is unlikely, i know) | ||
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The obvious lynch here is Shockeyy, I think it's possible that the people voting on DC without reasons are trying to split the town. As for d3: if you want to hunt scum for us, here are my suggestions: tube deconduo Brocket | ||
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On December 18 2010 10:41 LSB wrote: All right, got it. Finalized Plan. Day 3: Lynch DCXLIV Night 3: D3 attacks ShoCkeyy. ShoCkeyy self protects A few attempts could happen. Mafia could stack against ShoCkeyy, or Mafia could roleblock D3. D3 will receive a notification if he is roleblocked. Anyone else up for this? no because the plan has so many ways of being fucked with, as you readily admit. i would rather lynch Shockeyy or d3 and just figure out who is lying. | ||
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On December 20 2010 05:11 LSB wrote: Analysis of dinmsab. He hasn't helped town at all. I went through his posts and haven't found anything worth mentioning. Maybe this. All right, now to look at how he played other games Incognito's TL Mafia XVI Townie. He makes 3 worthless posts. + Show Spoiler + On January 22 2010 02:14 dinmsab wrote: Yeah, you just sealed your fate right there. On January 23 2010 00:04 dinmsab wrote: Almost anything would get you lynched in this game, except for when your actually asking for it. On January 25 2010 22:47 dinmsab wrote: Clues help indeed, just don't trust them 100% for certain. Ignoring clues would be a total waste imo. Red Army Mafia Spam, but I don’t know his alignment, so any read is probably usless [GG] Team Liquid Mafia – Resurrection Mafia Leader. Well he actually was active this game. And played good townie who listens to the town circle by supporting Ace. + Show Spoiler + On December 15 2008 06:50 dinmsab wrote: I was going to vote for Folca, but you Hyperbola changed my mind. Its true Folca is a jerk, but we cant just go kill off random townies if we're planning to win this. Good work Hyperbola. Spammny Vote reasons On December 16 2008 07:57 dinmsab wrote: imo, at this rate mafia could be acting as either one of those... and i believe that blues are more likely to stay in the shadows and avoid the spotlight rather than mafia. Killing off inactive players is indeed a good move when you dont have any clues on what to do next, but that doesnt mean your going to get a guaranteed mafia kill. Right people should just do whatever Ace tells them too since he's the one making the most sense, but that doesnt mean we can trust him completely with a list of blues. Supports Ace, a townie, and his circle On December 17 2008 06:47 dinmsab wrote: Well, it cant be helped.. we were on a very good start when we got ver lynched with the help of ace, and now suddenly out of nowhere 2 DTs just got owned. Its just natural that people will shift their blame to someone.. and since Ace did most of the decision making and he was working with an "anonymous" dt, not to mention he is also likely to be with contact with most of the blues at this moment, people would shift their attention to him. Although i'd say we put our suspicions of ace on hold, and first continue to deal with the list that the dt gave us. Continues to support ace On December 18 2008 19:23 dinmsab wrote: Clear out the list first, like ace said its a guaranteed mafia hit. Then we can move on with the other suspects. Btw, assuming ace isnt lying to us, and indeed another medic appeared... then wouldnt it be wise if we kill atkzerg first? I dont think that townie claiming to be a medic would have any reason to lie about his position, unless he is a bored townie and just wants to see another medic dead. Follows Ace Conclusion: Probably town: As mafia he put some effort into his posts. I don't know. It seems to me that behavior is dependent on the context of the game, and it's hard to draw conclusions from just a couple games. I'm actually more suspicious of BrownBear. I know that he tends to be a lot more active and participatory as town. | ||
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On December 20 2010 03:08 DCLXVI wrote: Wait what????? You go from your half assed lie of: "I checked 2 reds the first two nights then sat on them instead of doing what a real dt would do and reveal them day 3" To this? I really wish I could've posted that before you wriggled out of that lie, but I was too late. Now you are trying to shift the lynch off of you and try to make me agree with it by calling me townie? Your story now is that you checked two useless players and got roleblocked so you cannot provide us with any information? Also you plan was to fish for our roles? To see if there were any more chanseys/dt's you needed to kill? Frankly I don't buy this story either. Town do the right thing and lynch this lying scum. I don't know. I kind of agree with deconduo (who has popped out of the woodwork here) that Node's claim doesn't make much since from a mafia perspective. They are in a strong position right now and don't need to risk much, unless they're going for style. I dunno Node's meta though so IDK if he's the kind of player that does those sort of things. What you say also makes sense though. Node's story is VERY convenient. Remember Pandain's "checks" from the Insane mafia game where he lied about very convenient checks? I get the same vibe from the checks Node says he made. Also did Node claim he was roleblocked before this post? If I was roleblocked I'd probably claim ASAP, since it gives the town information. I'm undecided on this as of yet but either way Node lying doesn't help his case here. I think we also need to look at inactives - BrownBear, Oceanic, chaoser, are names that have been bugging me. | ||
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On December 21 2010 13:47 d3_crescentia wrote: lawlawlawlawlawlawl I'm killing infundibulum tonite what did i ever do to you? | ||
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I would hate to see Mewtwo go 0% success rate on hitting scum. | ||
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On December 21 2010 15:25 LSB wrote: I still think Infun, GGQ, and KtheZ should be modkilled... At least infun and GGQ should be mafia... Dunno what to think about KtheZ Uh, what? It isn't up to you. | ||
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On December 21 2010 15:50 LSB wrote: Just wishful thinking Yeah, i know. I hate how modkills so heavily affect the course of the game, but we have to be consistent with policy (i'm pretty sure i posted a couple times and voted this cycle though - so i guess you just want me dead  ) | ||
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On December 21 2010 16:06 d3_crescentia wrote: Don't forget M2. If I finagle it just right I can still win. -_- Yeah, but you're the only one in the game that wants that. they say it's lonely at the top. i bet all mewtwo ever needed was a friend | ||
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On December 22 2010 12:40 Node wrote: I can't believe the day 1 bandwagon on Infundibulum would actually have been a good idea. -_- :7 | ||
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On December 23 2010 00:16 LSB wrote: On the "why did you kill me" note, was claiming Cloyster effective in moving mafia hits away from me? I might want to do it in future games. No, it didn't matter because at that point no matter who we hit, we won. Also we knew you weren't a blue since Night 1. | ||
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