EPTNo wonder this town is so ass-backwards.
Insane Mafia - Page 6
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No wonder this town is so ass-backwards. | ||
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If you're town and don't want to lose, read these last few pages please. | ||
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On November 11 2010 04:25 LunarDestiny wrote: L... time to confirm mafia's winning condition. I don't want to argue against you about Mafia's winning condition so I pmed BOTH mod. I can't post the exact reply but i'll paraphase and the mod can confirm it. Artanis say that Mafia need to kill all town players to win. Also said that they don't need to kill third party. LSB say that The mafia wins if their number is more than the town players. The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win. He never defined "secete alliance." Can you clarify LSB? In conclusion, there is no mentioning about the "secret vote" even though I ask them specifically about it. Also, our votes as third party does not count toward mafia's votes. So the math 3 mafia+1 secret vote+2 third party is BS. Uh, if the mafia control the day lynch, they kill a townie, then go back to night where they and you can kill s'more townies until they're numerically superior to the town. Once mafia control our day lynch, we lose. Period. Dear town: Lunar is arguing that its okay for the mafia to have enough votes to win control our lynch. I mean, shit, that's fucked right up. | ||
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On November 11 2010 04:31 LunarDestiny wrote: I am arguing that it is almost impossible for Third Party to win with the mafia. That gives me no incentive to work with them. Winning with town is much easier since we have to get the remaining 3 mafia. L, is there anyone else that agree with you that Kenpachi is not mafia? Uh, you're arguing that its almost impossible for the third party to win with mafia with this example? The example LSB gave: 2 town, "2 secete alliance", 3 mafia. The mafia win and you win. THATS TOMORROW. Jesus Christ, you just quoted a mod giving you the exact numbers we'll have tomorrow if you and the mafia push this lynch through, and you're saying its impossible? This is unreal. | ||
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L, is there anyone else that agree with you that Kenpachi is not mafia? I sure as hell hope so, but even if Kenpachi is mafia, I'm not, and if we miss either of our lynches we lose and you win, so its pretty irrelevant at this point. | ||
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So me the math please? First post on the page. If we miss 1 lynch, we're at 5 townies, 2 maf, 2 of you guys. Mafia get a hit and the node +1 thing. you get a hit as well for a total of +3kp You end the game right there at 2/2/2, because town cannot grab the next day's lynch. You can't even try to stop mafia and swing the game in town's favor either, because mafia can hit you during the next night and make you lose. If we miss both lynches, we're at 4 townies, 3 mafia, 2 of you guys. Add those 3 kp together using mafia's secret vote to direct your hit and we're at 1,3,2, you win again with mafia. | ||
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On November 11 2010 04:42 LunarDestiny wrote: I have a kp tonight and you've forgotten mrus, which will probably pop for 2 town 1 mafia and give us the ability to win on day 6. Also why are you suggest that Town lynch both Glasse and I Right now there are 6 town 3 mafia 2 third party Lynch both third party on day5: 6 town 3 mafia mafia 2 night kill on night 5: 4town 3mafia Town lynch someone on day 6 A)4town, 2mafia or B)3town, 2mafia Night 6: A)mafia 2 night kill on night 6 2town, 2 mafia B)mafia 2 night kill on night 6 1town 2 mafia I like your plan that you lynch both third party... In the other scenarios, the ones wherein you win tonight, that doesn't happen. You just have a numerical advantage and the game ends. | ||
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On November 11 2010 04:49 LunarDestiny wrote: That is some sick math, I never thought about that. Why don't you just say you are the mafia and want the third party to buy your plan... Oh wait, then the town will just lynch you. Well, mostly because I'm not mafia, and if we make a single mistake on the lynch, which they would if we lynch me, we lose. So no, I'll stick to the only avenue which gives us the potential to win. | ||
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Go do your math again. You and Glasse aren't counted in the 6 remaining blues, because hey, look at that, you aren't blue. There are 11 people alive. 6 town. 3 mafia, and you two. If we lynch you two tonight, we end with 6 town/3 mafia. If they hit 2 of us and I hit one of them, we end up with 4/2. 4/2 means mrus pops, we probably go down to 2/1. Lylo for the game. The alternative is that we lose straight up tonight. | ||
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This game will follow a strict 48/24 hour day/night cycle. During the day, voting will be open in a separate thread, and some roles with secret day actions will need to PM me their day actions. During the night, all roles with night actions will need to PM those to me. The official time that cycles will begin/end at is MIDNIGHT CET. | ||
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On November 11 2010 09:43 Infundibulum wrote: so what do you think the best course of action is then? lynch the 3rd party? the problem is there are no more double lynches afterwards The only real course of action is to lynch the third party. We might be able to get away with just lynching lunar and not glasse, but given that I think pandain is scum and Kenpachi is probably being set up, we'd trade 1/1 and lose the game. I honestly don't see another way out of today that doesn't involve relying on the incompetence of every third party and mafia member to not vote for what amounts to an instant win. | ||
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Yes L's Plan leads to mafia winning Wrong. The 'secret mafia vote' doesn't end the game on that day if townies act faster than mafia and get their votes in. Additionally, either I'll die during the night, and mrus will pop, or I'll get a hit and mrus will pop, so you're straight up wrong there. Even in your alternate scenario, regardless of whatever scenario unfolds, the third party can win if they simply vote with the secret mafia vote in every scenario. They cannot lose and they always carry mafia to victory. In the best case scenario, 4v2v1+1 votes, which simply won't happen if you lynch me because I'm not mafia, you have a 20% chance for town to get their hit right, and a 25% chance for the third party to hit the mafia. If they fail? Lunar dies.Third party loses. If they vote with the secret vote? 100% victory. Mafia shreds town in a day or two. Its also impossible because third party and mafia have 2+3+1 votes combined, which is the same number as the town has. If we're going to vote a single target improperly, they control one of our lynches unless every townie bands together. Also consider that Pandain has been pretty much confirmed blue. If we follow the "confirmed blue" list we have a 2/3 chance of killing 2 mafias, and 1/3 chance of killing just 1 mafia. You aren't ever 'pretty much' confirmed anything. Either you're confirmed or you aren't. There are 3 mafia in play and 1 of them is likely godfather. And no, you don't have that chance of killing mafia, because mafia have control of one of our lynch votes today by raw numbers, and will take the second if we have a single dissenting townie who's not on board. | ||
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On November 11 2010 11:34 Pandain wrote: Hmm.... L's partly right.... Right now: 6 town, 3 mafia, two 3rd party. With secret mafia vote, mafia could've theoretically won already if I hadn't found mafia already. But point is, let's see if we mislynch for the second and hit a town: Night comes, mafia allies with third party. So then 3 deaths will happen (node, 3rd party kp + mafia kp) All most likely town(assuming node is town, which I think is safe to say.) So then it will be 3 town, 2 mafia, and two third party. They win. Having third party live is too dangerous. Even though I originally believed it would be in our best intentions, I think taking out the KP person in the third party will solve that, in addition to the fact it's one less vote for mafia. Right now I'm proposing we lynch Kenpachi and LunarDestiny. If Kenpachi is blue and you aren't, the game ends here. CLEVER PLOY EL PADRINO. | ||
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Hiding just makes our job nearly impossible come tomorrow when we're probably going to be in another Lylo situation. | ||
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On November 11 2010 12:59 LunarDestiny wrote: L, you never respond to this new information. Can you tell me how the third party can benefit if they were to side with the mafia? You are a very good thinker, so I thought you can do the thinking for me. Uh, the moment mafia gains control of the lynch, they win. If it takes a few days longer for them to shred through everyone, so be it. The only ways to stop that is through mrus popping (which is unreliable) or me shooting them which might involve me dying anyways. Besides my hit, there might be another blue with something that could save us, but they can't claim without getting hit or lynched, given that mafia can brute force a lynch today. As for you not knowing who to vote: the secret mafia vote is pretty cool, bro. Lets you vote train on someone and not be afraid of anything. | ||
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You just gave us another reason to doubt that you can work with town and win the game. Well done. | ||
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Look, another ASSUMPTION that mafia are less likely to have M-rus. If mrus is mafia controlled, like Ace's role suggests, then naturally they're going to have 3-4 nights worth of targetted spreading on players who aren't mafia. I already bothered to tell you this, yet you don't seem to want to put 2 and 2 together. Your claimed night kill... will save town. Or I'll die. Either/Or. If I'm killed in today's lynch, we lose anyways, so might as well go with the only path to victory available. Given that Ace was the primary spreader and has spent pretty much every single game besides this one riding my nuts, I'm pretty certain he'd have aids'd me up. So yeah, You think Meapak and I are equally likely to be the target of night actions? Not so, my good man. You think Kenpachi has an equal chance of being mrus'd as I do? I mean, these are players who essentially didn't exist for all intents and purposes until today. Mafia wouldn't have decided they were worth a premium to set up, because they're bad players. In the event that Mrus goes off mafia wants to be facing down a bunch of garbage town players. The alternative isn't really any brighter, but if anyone else has a role that they can use on me during the night that would spread mrus and not otherwise be wasted, they can do so. I've checked with the mods and they've stated that my mrus is checked after the night's round of infections. Nemesis seems to have a role he can use on people consistently. Meapak doesn't. Node doesn't. Dunno what infund has. Kenpachi claimed Hero and can't use his abilities yet. | ||
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