Insane Mafia
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The push to get him killed here is pretty understandable due to people loving LAL, but there's zero way someone would vote for themselves as mafia with the usual suspects driving a bus over him. Or rather that would hold unless there was a huge benefit to be gained from him dying. Either a mafia bomb type role (seems unlikely due to plague mechanics) or his death pushes another mafia member into a trusted position vis a vis the town where he can ask for roleclaims. As for this Young/DrH/Pandain/Infinite circle of morons situation going on, there's a few things which just don't really add up; DrH campaigned on being able to 100% confirm himself and clearly lied about it. LAL should apply to him to, right? Wrong. DrH can still confirm himself, but he needs to die for it to happen. I'm not sure if DrH is fumbling for time as his ability gathers information which he'll confirm as valid with a self-kill, but it seems rather odd that young would try to focus attention onto Aeres and cite LAL when LAL can be applied to DrH too. This leads me to believe that DrH/Young are in a circle together, and DrH is feeding him information, which he'll, again, confirm by death. If it wasn't for that, based on the aeres situation, I'd suggest killing DrH immediately in order to find out what allegiance Aeres has. Aeres is either innocent or sacking himself to benefit another mafia member; there was no benefit to fakeclaiming BG of all roles. This is based on the fact that DrH stands to benefit the most from the diverted attention and post-lynch bragging rights if Aeres flips red. There's some kind of intense attention-fu going on here to keep us discussing a certain set of facts, which leads me to believe that someone fucked up pretty hard and outed themselves earlier and we're actively being pushed away from that. Given that I kinda just read pages 10,20,30, etc until 80-92, I'm not entirely certain what's being thrown under the rug, but when I get more time and less women offering themselves to me, I'll be sure go over more material in search thereof. | ||
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That would be swell. | ||
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On November 02 2010 04:25 infinitestory wrote: ..... that was his first post in a day or so, iirc which is in response to Just wanted to make sure we're thinking about the same posts when referring to young. Looks like we are. | ||
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Once again L is asking for the death of one player to "confirm" another. No I'm not. I'm saying in the event that we kill either, these are the likely orientations of the other player because a rank 0 new kid isn't going to throw some crazy mindgames at us like whoa. In fact, I specifically said if I was going to lynch for information, I'd kill DrH, but that the entire Pandain/Young/DrH/Infinity arguesquare will probably clear itself up and give us a good candidate from it anyways. So like, I did the opposite of what you're trying to say I did. Cool beans bro. In other news, this feud is taking up a huge chunk of the thread. That's cool. Super cool even. Super cool if we're picking between two targets that are both town. The debate here is placid, with maybe 2 actors at most on a side weighing in. With 8 total vote power, mafia should be snoooooozing through this if one of the two candidates are mafia, because they can easily deploy enough votes to swing themselves to safety. In all likelihood, mafia isn't even heavily invested in this conversation, since there are at most 6 players making substantial contributions to the (now endlessly repeating) argument. Since both sides seem to have halos of associated players, it would be easy enough to swing a certain direction, then cook up why an unfortunate townie was the most ardent pusher for the lynch and get them killed. So, L, who do you suggest we pick? I dunno lol. We probably have a 1/6 chance hitting aeres or DrH. The game as a whole provides us with closer to 1/4 odds. Given that, we're probably better off completely ignoring this situation and producing alternatives before the day runs out and I get modkilled for eating curry for 30 minutes longer than anticipated. That said, that's a blind analysis. You can make the % chance even better by seeing what your position on players like Node or others is. In total, this yield me a list looking like this: 2. Hyperbola 3. Bumatlarge 4. Veldril 7. deconduo 8. Coagulation 10. infundibulum 11. Amber[LighT] 12. Kenpachi 13. RebirthOfLegend 14. Nemesis 15. ghrur 16. KtheZ 18. CubEdIn 19. Meapak_Ziphh 21. DCLXVI 22. Divinek 23. Lexpar 28. jcarlsoniv 31. L 32. NB 33. Glasse 34 Misder 38. kitaman27 39. LunarDestiny So basically I've removed the players that are too heavily engaged in the stupidity to be cruise control mafia + Node because I think he's legit. There's probably a mafia member up in that group, but they're all hopped up on crazy pills at the moment, so we're not going to get very far with our tea leaf divination technique just yet. Out of the remaining group, mafia are hiding at the feigned activity level. They'll jump on players who make mistakes, or just lightly brush people with the threat of the shitlist, but otherwise just reformulate other people's posts for giggles. And shits. I haven't read all hundred pages. Closer to 40, so I can't accurately say what happened during day 1. It seems, however, that there was a standard mayoral election, so one of the candidates who's remaining on this list might be a good person to start analysis on. Additionally, anyone who played heavily day 1, but then dropped off is less likely to be mafia, because townies' give-a-shit meter is very low normally (this, however, might be wrong this game because we're all blue and that's awesome), consistently low activity players who haven't asked for replacement or made overt apologies are more likely to be mafia given that LSB is actively kicking people outta his game if they say they're busy, and mafia players are never inactive. Cept that Caller kid. He's pretty brave, though. | ||
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On November 02 2010 11:18 NB wrote: hmm, i wana have you guys opinion on this: so Node said DCLXVI will die tonight! we also lost our 1 and only bodyguard! who should the medic protect night2? mayor or DCLXVI assuming we only have 1 medic?.... Uh, so, that's... a town mediated hit? Mafia doesn't send in their hits during the day unless they have a dayvig, and if they had a Dayvig, they could just shoot just prior to the vote close to fuck over Node/Medic reactions. So Node's probably not detecting dayvigs. Did I miss something day 1? I'm pretty sure I did. | ||
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On November 02 2010 11:53 infinitestory wrote: L, do you want to elaborate on why you think we have a lower chance (1/6) of getting a red with DrH or Aeres? The entire clusterfuck that you're in is made most interesting by the fact that people have aggressively pushed the topic to it, but no one's really made an attempt to suggest anything else prior to me making my statement. That tells me that on the whole, mafia's happy with the general focus that we have as a town, which probably also means that they're not very invested into the argument and letting townies eviscerate each other so that they can combo blame someone after we mislynch today to coast safely into day 4. If mafia really wanted to get the focus off either DrH or Aeres, they would have 3 or so people bringing up solid alternate topics, like "what the fuck's up with Node?" "what the fuck is fishball doing?" "hey bros, i claim i'm X!". Instead we see an almost laser like precision on two relatively large warring 'sides'. Mafia isn't going to step out as a group of 3 people and present a unified argument, because they almost never do so this early in the game when it can be traced back later. Given that, Mafia might be on both sides, but why bother? They just got a get out of jail free card. No need to toss people into 20 pages worth of argument, because there's nothing to argue about. From the mafia perspective they've already won the day. The sad part is that this would be completely unviable if people bothered to step up and produce, but we're getting a buncha me-toos and bad analysis. The youngmiini analysis had neither party bother to go look at his old games and instead just added commentary to his post history. Way to go. No one's going to read it. Instead, group his posts together and add thematics so show what the player is trying to do, rather than trying to nitpick the logic he's presenting for 10 pages straight. | ||
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On November 02 2010 11:44 infinitestory wrote: At the very end of Night 1, Node claimed that he knew BrownBear was going to die. He then claimed that his role was "oracle," which allowed him to see at the beginning of each day one player who's slated to die that night. DCLXVI is, according to Node, slated to die tonight. Possible connections between Node's role and the +1 part of mafia's 2+1 KP have been brought up. One suggestion in particular says that there's a red with the role of killing one guy randomly each night, and Node gets to find out who that is at the start of the day. The possibility of Node being a red baiting medics has also been brought up. The +1 makes sense, but that means that mafia would have had to.. hmm. Node, when did you recieve the two PMs notifying you who's going to die? | ||
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Quite frankly I haven't the requisite day 1 knowledge to make a confident choice as to who's a superior choice, but we should probably draw up a few candidates to see how people react. Even if we end up defaulting to our argument lynchpool, we'll have gained information that might help us out later. The only way this is detrimental is if there's actually some kind of critical nugget in the argument that is an overt scumtell that we haven't picked up on yet, which might happen in the pandain expose, but I've got a feeling its going to be more of the same garbage we've been swimming through since page 80. | ||
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On November 02 2010 12:36 Amber[LighT] wrote: On Node: That seems like really risky play by the mafia. Why steer hits away so early to gun for the mayor? It's not like drH's votes make such a great difference at the moment. This would have to be a long-term baiting where we continuously have to follow Node's advice and failing to protect people. This ability seems pretty cool, but detrimental as well since we now have to think about saving player x vs. potentially saving people who could not even be targeted tonight. Well, if he's mafia, he'll be a fucking annoyance for 2 more night or so, because I'd imagine he'll be honest with his telegraphed hits to the town. Day 5 i can see him lying to secure a critical kill to end the game, but whatever. Mafia's going to have to play around him one way or another and that's probably good for us. If you want to omit him from your list because there are better targets, that's cool beans. As for DrH's votes not making a great difference; Wrong. DrH counts as 2 people for the purposes of town/mafia balance when we arrive at LyLo. Ignoring this now leads us into situations wherein we miscalculate our possibilities by 1 and lose to potential burst nightroles. Even within the next 2 days, its possible that we have m-rus explode all over everyone's faces and get pared down to a very spartan day 4 where a single extra vote might decide the game. Anyways, mafia completely ruined my gaming tonight, so I'm off to go play a round before I get some sleep. Chowsers. | ||
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I had to choose between being a normal townie or being a doctor but the mafia being informed of my role. The role's name is Neo. You're holding someone back, because as far as it stands right now, its never the right choice to pick townie. | ||
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On November 03 2010 02:15 CubEdIn wrote: Oh, I understand, you think I picked townie? No. I picked doctor, that's why I roleclaimed straight away. No use in just the mafia knowing what I am. Why would I think that you picked doctor? I'm saying that the role you say you have does not make sense. At all. So there's probably more to it that you haven't revealed. | ||
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Why would I think that you picked townie? There's no downside to telling mafia that you're doctor if the alternative is that we don't have a doctor, especially if you can self prot. So your doctor ability probably comes with some form of negative, or there's some way that your ability can be used against you. | ||
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On November 03 2010 02:37 CubEdIn wrote: Speculating, I'd say that most people in my position would pick doctor and then would have to role-claim (no use in only Mafia knowing of the role, right?). So, in a game with no PMs, the roleclaim would have to be done to everyone, leading to this kind of discussions, causing more chaos. I was expecting something like this to happen, but there's really not much I can do or say to prove I'm right (other than going to protect whoever you want me to, and getting killed by the mafia, so you'll have your proof in the mod post). @ Glasse, you don't understand, posts like that would make the Mafia suspect they can't trust everyone in their team. You could use it to turn mafia against each other, if worded properly, and implying that there's some sort of role that could cause a back-stab kill in the Mafia ranks. Of course, it's a long shot, but it's better than not doing anything at all. And what part WASN'T from you? Its not 'most people' should pick doctor. Its literally never the right choice to pick townie, which makes you role seem fake, which makes believe you're lying or not telling us about some kind of downside to your doctor-role. Maybe you spread m-rus or some shit, or maybe you wouldn't actually be a townie. Maybe you're a third party role. I dunno. As it is right now, though, that shit doesn't make sense. | ||
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You either play a dull role, or you get a fun one but the Mafia knows. There is no tradeoff. None. What's mafia going to do about you being a doctor? Waste a roleblock to hit you and get rid of a player who would have otherwise been a townie? Its literally 100% +EV to take doctor unless we're being lied to or unless someone else has a complementary role. | ||
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Like the doctor also being a mason, perhaps. | ||
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On November 03 2010 03:37 CubEdIn wrote: But this discussion is pointless. As I said, I can't do much to prove it. You can have your doubts, but unless you think that I'm red, this argument is leading nowhere. Even if I HAD other abilities or there was more to my role, I wouldn't go "oh right, not that you mention it... ", would I? So why do we keep going on these steep slopes to nowhere-land? You'll see if I was lying or not when I die, it's as simple as that, but unless you think I could hurt the town, the argument is pointless. I'm not even going to discuss the "Maybe you spread m-rus or some shit" accusation, as a doctor who spreads disease is less logical than anything I said in this thread. Because they don't go to nowhere land. They see if you're bullshitting about your role, and thusfar you've only made my suspicions deeper. We just saw a doctor that had a chance to kill his prot target. If spreading the virus because you are an unsanitary doctor or something is far fetched, I'd imagine killing your target is even more crazy, right? So far you're standing out like a sore thumb. You only reply in the thread when people comment about your roleclaim and your roleclaim itself is messed up. You even say right here that even if you had other abilities you'd actively mislead the town about them, which makes me wonder why you bothered to hide them. If you had something legitimate to hide, it would be as simple as saying "yes, there are other strings attached, but I don't want mafia to know what they are". Your reaction here is hyper defensive too; you admit something looks weird, then you get angry when people talk about it. So yeah, stuff STILL isn't adding up. Its not necessarily your fault, because like I said before its possible that your role can be manipulated by another role. | ||
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On November 03 2010 03:39 Amber[LighT] wrote: The doctor could be bulletproof, making the knowledge a bit more trivial for mafia. Then a mafia team would need to somehow get the town to lynch the doctor. I doubt the added piece of information is another value added aspect to the doctor given the roles that've flipped thusfar. Additionally, if cube isn't lying about protting himself, he's essentially semi-bullet proof anyways. Anyways, time to go play Lol. | ||
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On November 03 2010 04:25 CubEdIn wrote: Way over the top on the defensive, bro. I did check your post history, in the past 30 pages its pretty much all reaction. First of all, get your facts straight. I admit I haven't posted a lot, but that's because 80% of this thread is assumptions, maybes, ifs, and general bullshit caused by people like you. As I said, you can have your doubts, you can believe me or not, but you're doing absolutely 0 good by arguing with me. Feel free not to believe me, but getting from that (not just a regular townie) to this (infecting people, trying to mislead the town, etc) is a big step. And I've not only posted when people talk about my role, I posted A LOT of times (do a search, it's quite easy using TL's search function, you can see all my posts in this thread) complaining about people who only rely on maybes, instead of trying to rely on the few things in this game that COULD be facts. Let's say I lie. There's a 50-50% chance that I am, correct? That still leaves 50% that I'm telling the truth. Now are you gonna base your play on a 50% shot of me not lying, or on the very-off-chance that all the story you practically invented over the past two pages is somehow true? Which is more likely? I've been begging for reason since this game started, since we have nothing else to go on, but it seems that some people would do anything to cause chaos, wild theories, and to throw stuff off-track. I'm not saying you're mafia, but you're going through a lot of trouble to cause chaos in my opinion. So let me sum-it-up: I'm being defensive, but I'm just trying to hold this thing on it's rails. I agree with you not believing I'm telling the truth, but don't go so far as to make up stories. Just try to reason instead of derailing. Just assume I'm something else, or red, or whatever, but try and stop there, since you can't possibly know what everyone's role is, and since we don't even have a role list, you're only causing chaos. What chaos am i creating? I stated your role doesn't make sense. I didn't say its your fault. If it isn't you that's holding back info, mafia can probably fuck with you. And that's some kinda crazy wild theory? Sorry, this offensive defense doesn't cut it. Voted for you. | ||
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