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On September 22 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 06:43 YellowInk wrote:
At this point I believe that the mafia are among teams 1, 3, 5, and 6. I do not know precisely who, but at this stage of the day, hanging team 1 still makes sense. Ace, I was getting the same feeling initially about the bandwagoning onto team 1, but then I looked carefully at who was and wasn't on board with the team 1 vote and realized that just about everyone who was on the team 1 vote I already had a feeling of being pro town. The most suspect people have pushed the no lynch.
The recent argument made against no lynch was under the assumption of no medic saves. Consider what occurs if you have 1 medic save: we gain an entire day! In a typical game, a single medic save does not gain us a day. Using the no lynch here would lose us the day that a medic save could gain us.
No lynch is for endgame situations only. Hang team 1. No it isn't. This post is blatantly misleading. No lynching is for when you can't conclude someone is scummy enough to lynch. Like I've said, the town does not have to lynch every day. So most of the time it's in your best bet to No lynch unless you are in a situation where there is clearly going to be a benefit. Being in the end game does not matter for a No lynch, all it means is that you're decision has a more immediate consequence but it's also easier. Towards the end of the game it is actually much rarer to have a No lynch. Remember what I said? It's in your best bet to avoid a lynch when you aren't sure someone is scum or there is no clear benefit. At the end of the game you have so much information between votes, player interaction, the knowledge of what roles have been revealed and your own ties to players that it's really not often you'll be No lynching then. In a typical game a single medic save NOT gaining you a day is false. Saving a player and them possibly being confirmed innocent is a pretty big deal don't you think? It may not directly add more days to your win condition but adding more players to the likely pro-town pool, that TWO players know about is pretty heartbreaking for scum once it's revealed. Using a No Lynch now would actually be the best bet...if this were 10 hours ago and this was a normal setup with infinite No Lynches. Clearly though, LSB has been posting god knows what and well I'm a little intrigued by this post of yours. I thought you were a good player so how could you actually believe this nonsense you just posted? The only thing worrying me is that Incognito seems to have pegged both your teams also which shows his scumdar is operating on great batteries like mine, or he's just good at picking off easy townies. So I'm going to ask you this one time: Let's assume you were a detective. What team would you investigate tonight and why?
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Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables.
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On September 22 2010 09:58 Pandain wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 09:53 Ace wrote:
Pandain that is just terrible logic. If the Medic knows he's town and keeps self protecting and all the valuable townies die off then what is left? Who can confirm the presence of the medic?
In a game with 2 scum where if the situation outlined earlier happens then you get 2 most likely confirmed pro-town players. So why in the world would a medic keep self protecting every night?
Unless the medic is literally just not reading the game and being a moron they have every incentive in the world to protect the players that they feel is going to further their win condition. Literally your argument boils down to why not have a 100% chance of protecting an innocent over a 75% chance when that isn't the only thing at stake here. I mean really, it's analogous to saying why shouldn't a Vigilante shoot everyone else but himself knowing that the only person he knows is innocent is himself. The game just doesn't work off of % chances like that in such simple ways all the time. You're ignoring too many other variables. Just so you know I'm saying that as of tonight he should protect himself. Obviously if something else occurs such as DT claims(stupidly probably :p), he should protect him. My point is that as of now, protecting himself is the best possible choice he could make. You're right in the regards that valuable players could be picked off, but plainly theres the chance that they themselves will be medic, and that we already have a whole control group of high level players(myself not included.) Right now a medic save is the best thing that could happen for town, even better than DT finding mafia, since a medic save is immediately verified, the person hit is verified, while a DT who checks mafia is still himself unconfirmed. With a 1/4 chance of protecting mafia, we need to decrease that to 0% in order to help boost up our odds. And yes, if a vigilante could shoot everyone else but himself they should, as that would win the game :p. Unfortunately this won't, but it will help.
Classic Monty Hall problem:
If the medic self protects the chance of the Mafia killing a townie: is 83%.
If the medic does not self protect: 10.71% (chance of picking a townie for the medic AND the chance of Scum hitting a townie)
So what do you want to do?
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@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit.
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On September 22 2010 10:37 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On September 22 2010 10:29 Ace wrote:
@LSB, for the second number I did 1/7h for chance of the medic picking anyone but themselves to protect, but also added in the chance of Scum hitting a townie since 2/8 of the players won't be hit. So (1/7) * (3/4) gives 10.71%.
I'm not calculating the chance of a medic picking players, this is more specifically the chance of a medic actually stopping a hit. Umm... That doesn't really make sense. Think of it this way. Imagine that there is 8 hats, one for each group The mafia places a kill one of the hats. The Medic has to guess where the kill is. The Medic has a 1/8th chance of guessing the kill. Now, if the medic isn't picking himself. There is a 5/6 chance the mafia wouldn't hit the medic There is a 1/7th chance that the medic would pick the right person. So 5/42
I just told you I'm not calculating the medic strictly picking a target. I'm also adding in the 3/4 for the Mafia hitting the target to change it to the medic actually stopping a hit. Two different things here.
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lmao oh come on you have GOT to be kidding me lol
On September 23 2010 10:49 Bill Murray wrote:
x_x
expected
This was clearly your fault ^_^
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There isn't a post showing game over though.
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On October 05 2010 18:27 Incognito wrote:Oh completely forgot about that, lol. Show nested quote +On October 05 2010 12:17 Korynne wrote:On October 04 2010 23:17 rastaban wrote:
Isn't this the very definition of WIFOM. I mean if that is the case then Infun was silly for protecting us since they should have hit him. The whole point was that both sides were trying to guess what would happen. I think it is also unfair to say there was a 50% chance infun would have given them the win if he had self protected since he did protect us meaning he viewed us as more innocent than the other team.
As for LSB messing up, maybe he did but they lost due to 2 hits being blocked and not do to town voting them out when we could have so I don't know that I would call there actions a mistake. Maybe they were but the incorrect lynches were more of a mistake than anything LSB's team did. Dude, if Incog self-protected it would be 50/50, that's better that fucking yourself over. Period. This isn't WIFOM about hitting yourself or the other team, this is like, you should both target the medic. That's all under the assumption that mafia's goal is to not immediately lose. If mafia is certain my best move is to protect myself but they're unsure of whether or not they'd get lynched the next day, they could have sufficient reason to just hit the other target for the instant win. Your probabilistic methods assume I'm going to flip a coin the next day to pick a lynch target. All the endgame drama aside, I'm really disappointed by everyone's play including myself. The middle game was just a bunch of waffling and bad logic by me. Although nobody was really doing anything (except maybe Pandain/BB). Not sure if the inactivity was because of my aggressiveness or just general apathy. In any case, I'm not going to be playing again anytime soon. The team melee format is nice though so I'd like to see that continue, maybe on a larger scale next time  Seems like TL mafia is running low on steam though...
BM asked me at the beginning what my plan was, and I said I was just going to chill Day 1 then on Day 2 start playing for real. When we died Night 1 I was like wtffffffffff we barely did anything :/
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EPT
