EPTPick Your Power Mafia 2!
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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If you all are so insistent about everyone having a unique #, then the correct way to do this would be to use the pre-assigned player list and have everyone pick what # you got when you signed up, as that list is the only unbiased one. Flaws with the current plan:
or
Furthermore, if Mafia has the #1 pick, then we won't know the CV. Here's how it goes down. The #1 pick "allegedly" picks CV but actually picks something else, and let's CV slide down to some other Mafia member. CV plays along for a bit, but at any moment can switch to another player without fear of retribution. I'll tell you what number I picked once the draft is finalized, which is how this should go down if this announcing bit even goes down at all. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 22 2010 07:27 Pandain wrote: We're not pushing anyone to pick any one thing. We're making sure the town gets what the town needs. The town will care about that. Please explain how the current "pick a # not already picked" plan is in any way pro-town. For all I know Mafia has the top 5 stacked. Or maybe they don't. Who cares? What matters is how we pick once the draft is finalized. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 22 2010 07:41 citi.zen wrote: Why do need a pre-asigned draft order? We don't. But if people really want there to be no collisions in the picking, then the fair way to do that would be the player list. Could there be Mafia in the top 10? Sure. Hell the Mafia could control the top of the player list. But I'd rather trust my luck to a random assignment than the current first-come-first-serve model. | ||
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SiNiquity
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This is not to say I'm advocating the player list model over all others; I'm simply advocating it over the current model. Personally I say keep your # to yourself. We flesh out the picking algorithm and follow that tomorrow.. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 22 2010 08:16 Pandain wrote: So your post is saying we should do Radfield's plan,but keep numbers hidden? Or do you propose we scrap the plan altogether? Something along the lines of Radfield's, so that every player knows what they're doing because they know their number. By keeping our numbers to ourselves, no player knows what another player is doing. The exception here is if it is deemed worthwhile for part of the final algorithm to announce in certain cases (so that we know the identity of some roles, i.g. CV). However, if we keep the numbers secret then we can rid ourselves of the obfuscation of the RNG and instead use a deterministic algorithm (i.e. Player 1 pick X, player 2 pick Y, etc) -- and in this case, there will be a maximum of M collisions (in the case where M mafia members steal a role). So if we go with the weighted system approach (i.e. 50% chance to pick this, 50% to pick that) then we'd need to make sure the expected number of collisions is less than M (whatever M may be). | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 07:11 ~OpZ~ wrote: not following this plan either. game starts to me after i get to pick my power. Pandain: If numbers are kept secret, then I don't see a reason to do a weighted algorithm (% based) instead of just a plain role assignment. Opz: Get over yourself and chill the fuck out. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 07:52 Pandain wrote: The draft list will be revealed. If we just assigned roles, then mafia would know who to hit. People can change numbers. I know I am. I suggest people to do the same Oh hah. I don't know where I got that the final draft list was going to be anonymous. I was understanding the "draft order being revealed" simply meant that Ace would post a list with XYT, where X and Y were the numbers and T was the PM timestamp (or just assigning a unique # to it and PM'ing the individuals who conflicted which one they were). In that case I'm fine with the weighted algorithm. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 08:04 LSB wrote: I guess we just sit back and see what happens. I support this plan, as long as it doesn't seem obvious that people were sniped out of positions. Too think of it, even if we announce numbers, mafia would have a hard time sniping positions. Say they only had 4 numbers. That means they can only get someone from the top 6 initial positions to the top 3 (since they can only 'collide' with so many people). Announcing numbers is a trade off. A bit of risk for a bit of data. If a few people claimed it still may be beneficial to see who got sniped. It would still be random, but we'd get some information from it. I will now just say, I have picked 5 Stop announcing. It only encourages other players to switch from that number. And they shouldn't, as that implies an unsubstantiated level of trust in you (i.e. you're not Mafia). | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 08:14 LSB wrote: Any bets that OpZ or Bill are going to draft Day Vig and kill someone day1? 2:1 Opz dies before Bill. Any takers? | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 09:10 Radfield wrote: Absolutely, but remember that the most powerful mafia roles we're taking preventatively (PoD and Bad Santa). Lets take a look at the roles we're actually leaving them: Floridian: A good role for mafia, particularly in the end-game, but likely not one that will hurt us continually as the game goes on God Father: Not a real great role considering we have a tracker, role cop and bullet bill, all capable of finding him. Role Blocker: A weak role until we start publicly claiming roles, then it becomes quite strong. Likely the mafia will take this role. Pardoner: A weak role, only useful in the late game. Obviously the way we're playing it, anyone who uses the role is mafia. Vengeful Player: OK, but there are better roles for mafia to take. Day Vig: A decent role for mafia, but by leaving it for mafia, it actually becomes less powerful, since anyone who uses it will be insta-lynched at the next opportunity. It really functions exactly as the Vengeful Player, an after lynch attack(see PYP1). It's important that this role stays out of town hands, as it would reduce Bullet Bill's effectiveness. Traitor: Mafia will not pick this. Honestly, none of these roles really frighten me, and when you look at the glut of pro-town roles we should be able to pull down, I think we'll be in pretty good shape. Godfather = Vengeful Player ('cept auto-lynches the last vote on him) + Alignment Immune, so Vengeful is definitely low on a Mafia list. | ||
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SiNiquity
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#1 Comp Vig (CV): Starting Night 2, must kill every night or else mod-killed. #2 Bad Santa: Here's the quote, I'm actually a bit confused as to the specifics. + Show Spoiler + At the start of the game you may send me a list of 5 players' names. If any of those player's are the cause of death for each other by Night kill, lynch, or any other means then you can pick any of the remaining names and kill one of them the next night. So a list of 5 players is sent in. If any of those players on the list causes the death of another player on the list, Bad Santa gets to kill anyone from the list. Am I understanding that correctly? #3 Prince(ss) of Darkness (PoD): Skips day-cycle. One use only. #4 Role Cop: Can check roles (i.e. player's power). #5 Jack of All Trades (joat): Can choose between [Sane] Investigate (Town / Mafia / SK), Protect, Shoot, Talk. Each power can only be used once. #6 Bullet Bill (BB): Can target player and see if they're carrying a gun (Mafia, SK, CV, Santa, joat) #7 Veteran: 2 Lives #8 Meth-man: Kills everyone visiting him if he dies. #9 Bulletproof: Can't be shot. #10 Doctor: Can protect someone from one bullet (i.e kill power). There are 2 total to be had, but may be of the Normal, Paranoid (50% chance of killing target), Naive (protections do nothing), or Weak (dies if protecting Mafia / SK) variety. #12 Tracker #13 Copy Cat and some misc. roles. Sounds pretty groovy to me. Just as a heads up, BB could trigger on joat. | ||
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On August 23 2010 09:53 SiNiquity wrote: So if all goes well, the town will nab the following roles (red roles are just to deny Mafia): #1 Comp Vig (CV): Starting Night 2, must kill every night or else mod-killed. #2 Bad Santa: Here's the quote, I'm actually a bit confused as to the specifics. + Show Spoiler + At the start of the game you may send me a list of 5 players' names. If any of those player's are the cause of death for each other by Night kill, lynch, or any other means then you can pick any of the remaining names and kill one of them the next night. So a list of 5 players is sent in. If any of those players on the list causes the death of another player on the list, Bad Santa gets to kill anyone from the list. Am I understanding that correctly? #3 Prince(ss) of Darkness (PoD): Skips day-cycle. One use only. #4 Role Cop: Can check roles (i.e. player's power). #5 Jack of All Trades (joat): Can choose between [Sane] Investigate (Town / Mafia / SK), Protect, Shoot, Talk. Each power can only be used once. #6 Bullet Bill (BB): Can target player and see if they're carrying a gun (Mafia, SK, CV, Santa, joat) #7 Veteran: 2 Lives #8 Meth-man: Kills everyone visiting him if he dies. #9 Bulletproof: Can't be shot. #10 Doctor: Can protect someone from one bullet (i.e kill power). There are 2 total to be had, but may be of the Normal, Paranoid (50% chance of killing target), Naive (protections do nothing), or Weak (dies if protecting Mafia / SK) variety. #12 Tracker #13 Copy Cat and some misc. roles. Sounds pretty groovy to me. Just as a heads up, BB could trigger on joat. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 13 2010 00:12 Korynne wrote: /in as replacement! =D His only post in the thread (was checking to see if there were any date stipulations or the like). | ||
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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So South, Chaoser and Rasta are our malignant townsfolk? | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 21:15 Ace wrote: oops, new draft order ^_^
Putting this on the current page so no one misses it (like I almost did!) | ||
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 15:43 Bill Murray wrote: I'm also going to be voting you this entire game until you die. Add dk and me to the list then. Terrible plan + relatively high number for yourself? I had no problem leaving my number [6][1] unchanged and "taking one for the team" to make sure you were @ the bottom. Worst part is, the plan was so bad and your self-interest so well represented (anyone else steals my # and I'm going to lynch them!) that 3 people thought it worthwhile to sacrifice their pick to bring you to the bottom.  So bury the hatchet before you bury yourself with it. | ||
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SiNiquity
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Rastaban should be picking CV chaoser should be picked Bad Santa LSB should be picking PoD Hesmyrr should be RNG'ing CV/Santa/PoD Do not deviate from this; it would throw the whole plan into disarray. | ||
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SiNiquity
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Also damnit Ace, your mood is contagious  | ||
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On August 24 2010 09:54 SiNiquity wrote: How much time does the pardoner have to pardon the victim before it's too late? Also damnit Ace, your mood is contagious See?  | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 23 2010 11:11 Radfield wrote: If by "random ass roles" you mean the very non-random percentages i've layed out at each spot, then yes. #1 Comp Vig #2 Bad Santa #3 Prince of Darkness #4 33/33/33 CV, Bad Santa or PoD #5 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% Joat......... 50% Defensive role #7 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #8 50% Role Cop, 50% Defensive role #9 50% Joat.........50% Defensive role #10 50% Bullet Bill, 50% Defensive role #11 25% Role Cop, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #12 25% Joat, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #13 25% Bullet Bill, 25% Defensive role, 25% Doctor, 25% role of your choice(not tracker) #14. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other(Alignment Cop, Mason, Martyr, etc.) #15. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #16. 50% Tracker, 25% doctor, 25% Copy Cat(recommended) or Other #17 50% role cop, 50% other #18 50% Joat, 50% other #19 50% Bullet Bill, 50% other #20 50% tracker, 50% other Everyone double check the list at the top of the page. Make sure your # matches your action! | ||
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SiNiquity
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That being said, currently roles are definitely very "pigeon-holed" (i.g. Bullet Bill is 7, 10, 13, or 19). What if we changed it to: #5 50% [Role Cop/Joat/BB 33% each], 50% Defensive role(Vet, Meth Man, or Bulletproof. 33% chance of each) #6 50% [Role Cop/Joat/BB 33% each] 50% Defensive role #7 50% [Role Cop/Joat/BB 33% each], 50% Defensive role #8 50% [Role Cop/Joat/BB 33% each], 50% Defensive role #9 50% [Role Cop/Joat/BB 33% each].........50% Defensive role #10 50% [Role Cop/Joat/BB 33% each], 50% Defensive role (spreading out the possibilities while maintaining the expected result). We could also spread out tracker (maybe to incorporate 11-13). Thoughts? | ||
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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But I suppose it's up to Ace in the end. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 24 2010 11:41 citi.zen wrote: Actually, the copy-cat issue could be handled through our day 1 lynch I guess. So long as a non-vanilla gets lynched, otherwise it is actually a pretty serious concern that I hadn't considered. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 24 2010 12:03 SiNiquity wrote: I figured there must've been some time added - people on the west coast would get shafted by this (getting home around 6 PST = 9 EST = deadline) and wouldn't see the changes made until it was too late. But I suppose it's up to Ace in the end. Bloops, 10pm EST is deadline not 9 EST. Still close, but not as close as I thought. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 24 2010 07:49 Ace wrote: Ok this should be it.
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On August 24 2010 12:17 Bill Murray wrote: wait, when i voted, i thought my pick was higher than it was. i thought i was picking 15. Exactly what I'm talking about. Ace, please extend the deadline. I'm going to bed. I don't foresee this getting resolved tonight. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 25 2010 19:39 zeks wrote: the CV lynch is safe now for tonight since CC has copied mason was kind of surprised that dayvig trickled all the way down to the #15 pick - leads me to think most of the people above were gunning for the good roles Awesome. My biggest concern is that the dayvig was going to do something like that 'cept aim at the CV. | ||
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SiNiquity
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Role claims:
Assumptions:
So there's a traitor in the range of (1-5), and with no dead giveaway it's up to random chance. There's a couple of ways to go about this. One way is based on impact to town (assuming the roleclaims are true):
The other is based on likelihood. That is, running under the assumption that everyone was following the plan, who could "slide under the radar" the best?
That being said, Hesmyrr seems like the logical choice to lynch. However, given the majority lynch rule, I'm withholding my vote until tomorrow. | ||
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SiNiquity
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There's 3 possibilities as I see it:
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Some Alternative Role: Didn't do what he was told and got some other role. Since he's claimed otherwise, I view this as most unlikely | ||
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On August 27 2010 07:47 Fishball wrote: More in a jokingly manner, but I'm inclined to say, "Duh?"  It's like saying, when you have a baby, the baby could be a boy, or a girl, and that slim chanceof being both. You're kinda stating the obvious here. In similar jest I'm inclined to respond with, "Duh?" It's like saying, when your friend has a baby, and your friend laments over the gender and lists out the possibilities, and you tell him, "Duh?" You're kinda stating the obvious here. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 28 2010 12:18 citi.zen wrote:If Zeks told the truth, either Southrawarea lied, or there is a traitor in the top 3. You cannot rule out the possibility of Zeks being a traitor in either case. Traitor - You hold no allegiance to the town. If you are targeted by Scum at night with any action, instead of that action happening you'll be recruited by them instead. You lose if the Mafia lose. However you are part of the town count before recruitment. This role is nullified for the Serial Killer(s) since it may be too broken if they have it. As Zeks even admitted, he made a juicy target (win/win from Mafia perspective - gain a recruit or kill someone with a #5 pick). So even if he's telling the truth about taking a hit he could still be a traitor, as any night action could recruit him. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 28 2010 12:30 Pandain wrote: or zeks is telling the truth, he got hit, and he's traitor so he got recruited isntead of killed -_- I somehow completely missed this post. Sorry, bed it is. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 28 2010 12:18 citi.zen wrote: Also, given how fast he claimed, I doubt he is the traitor - too little time to come up with such a plan. I disagree with this as well. Suppose you're traitor, and the town's on to you (i.e. you're in the top 5). It's night, you have a chance to be recruited, and you know Night ends at 9 PM EST. You check the thread, refreshing every few minutes to see what happened. Night post goes up and you see the following things:
It's very easy to put two and two together and realize what happened (you took the hit and got recruited). Night post was at 10:06, Zeks claimed at 10:17. 11 minutes (+/- 1 minute). Heck, even a Mafia watching the events unfold could've PM'ed to Zeks to claim the hit. Plenty of time. Don't mistake this for me saying that Zeks is absolutely the traitor -- I just don't agree with the conclusion you've reached (i.e. that he's most likely not the traitor) based on the fact that he claimed quickly. Bed for real now | ||
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SiNiquity
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It occurred to me earlier there's a possibility for Zeks that AFAIK hasn't been mentioned -- that being that he's the Serial Killer. You are a Vanilla Serial Killer! Every night you can choose to kill 1 player. You show up Innocent to alignment checks and are bulletproof at night. Role checks reveal whatever role you picked in your draft, if you don't get a role you show up as Vanilla SK. Your kills also go through bulletproof vests. You win by killing everyone else and being the last surviving player. | ||
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SiNiquity
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Assumptions:
Conclusion: Only Mafia visited Zeks last night. | ||
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SiNiquity
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I don't understand why you haven't hard-claimed this as of yet (unless I overlooked it). | ||
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Also I PM'ed myself to confirm, please don't mod kill me ') | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 29 2010 05:39 zeks wrote: Fine. I'm role cop. I checked Fishball - I don't want to reveal what he is as now we're practically in a mass roleclaim mode and it would not benefit the town to know what he is: however I will tell you that he did not follow the town's plan either. I have no idea how bumatlarge got only 4 people from his watch, because I'm not the SK and I lived - to my surprise so someone must've protected me. I know I'm going to die today as now I fit the perfect profiling of an SK - but please evaluate why LSB was so sure I was role cop - not to mention now only 2 suspects are remaining for the traitor and he is one of them. Radfields push for my lynch and wanting to know who I rolecheck I also find a little bit suspicious. I apologize for my poor play and allowing scum to corner me this easily. If I go down today I blame no one but myself. @Ace: Are players notified of the act of being protected (i.e. not names, just "You were riddled with bullets but miraculously wake up covered in bandages and stitches")? | ||
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SiNiquity
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The only thing I can conceive is that both inactive players were Mafia. One was substituted, the other was mod-killed, leaving 3 players. That seems highly, nay staggeringly improbable. | ||
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On August 29 2010 15:55 Ace wrote: All roles that can act may send in Night actions now. Night 2 ends Sunday 9PM ET/10 KST Sunday August 29th/August30th KST but will be extended to Monday 9PM ET if more time is needed. So with 5 hours left (or possibly 29 hours), where are all the # # CV: votes? Or is it just assumed that SR is the target? | ||
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SiNiquity
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On August 31 2010 10:25 Fishball wrote: I checked SiNiquity. He does not have a gun. No I don't | ||
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SiNiquity
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No it wasn't obvious. | ||
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Also, f u citizen for stalking me this entire game, inactive or not. + Show Spoiler + So, where to now? | ||
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SiNiquity
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Also Fishball, wtf. If he doesn't have a gun, he's not Mafia, no? So why would you even consider voting for him? | ||
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SiNiquity
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These are just a few of the questions that must be resolved:
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On August 31 2010 12:08 citi.zen wrote: That's messed up! So ANY mafia with a role is undetectable via the tracker? I thought it was just roles that "visited" people that took me to the wrong place, not that any role makes people static. I probably would not have picked tracker if I knew that :-) This means I wasted the night check, I cannot ever confirm Chaoser. Should have just called out Opz yesterday and hear Radfield's thoughts on this. Yea, that's pretty wtf-worthy. A tracker tracks movement. This is Mafia, a game where several malignant individuals gather together and kill someone each night in close quarters. So just because the Don dons a bulletproof vest, it serves as a Home Alone style trick? "Yaa I'm home! heheh.." | ||
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SiNiquity
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Tracker - Follow someone and find out who they visited that night. | ||
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On September 01 2010 07:01 citi.zen wrote: If I'm red chaoser is lying, right? In that scenario I (red) called out Opz, only to be told by Chaoser(red) that Opz is innocent! It makes no sense, but nice try Fishball. All you are doing is trying to deflect. It's actually a great idea. If Chaoser is indeed red (and not even necessarily Bad Santa, could be any role with a made up list) then confirming a bunch of people who were pro-town (bum via very helpful watcher info, myself via fishball whose role was confirmed via zeks, radfield by dying) and slipping a mafia or 2 on the list is the best play possible.. Which is why lynching Chaoser, not SR was the move to make tonight. Confirming the list is way more imperative than this traitor bullshit, but it even has the benefit of removing a top 3 role should SR be telling the truth. But the town had to rush off and majority lynch. -_- gj. | ||
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SiNiquity
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Yes, let's assume that Chaoser is town and everyone is already confirmed, and then justify not lynching him because "it's not worth it." Great idea. Citizen you're a better player than this, what's with the bad play? | ||
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Interesting that no one was roleblocked.. afraid of being tracked maybe?Chaoser: <3 for confirming 4 townies. Sorry we had to sacrifice you to do it As for the lynch, I don't see why we shouldn't lynch LSB. A Mafia lynch is a successful lynch is it not? And even though it doesn't reduce KP, it does reduce the Mafia win scenario (i.e. outnumber town). Is there really any disadvantage to lynching him now rather than later? Also, something to keep in mind: Rasta isn't necessarily cleared. He also wasn't necessarily role-blocked - if he were mafia, he could simply aim at the Mafia's target and claim roleblocked, as the Mafia kill would cover it up. Anyway, I'll check in the morning before I disappear off to work again [freaking hectic week]. | ||
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On September 03 2010 03:12 flamewheel wrote: Thank god for the "All" function. You guys post a lot >< I wrote a script utilizing the All function during BM's Mafia game. Finished it around page 49. Then the thread hit page 50. And the All function went away. ## Vote LSB | ||
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SiNiquity
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Hmm down to 9 with 2 Mafia left... at this point, is it advantageous to keep the CV? Suppose, worst case scenario, we persistently hit town (I don't foresee this given the large number of confirmed players, but again worst case here): With CV
Without CV
The tradeoff here is Mafia is guaranteed one more hit which will of course hit town (whereas CV has a chance to hit Mafia). However, it also gives one additional use of the Bullet Bill and Tracker, while also removing a potentially dangerous role should the CV turn out to be Mafia. This is of course presuming Fishball is town (tracker seems to be pretty handicapped with the roles taking priority). The fact that JeeJee was killed, confirming Fishball's claim that he was not Mafia, sadly does nothing to confirm Fish himself. Although I'm admittedly surprised Mafia would go after JeeJee rather than someone on Chaoser's list. Hmm... | ||
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[QUOTE]On September 01 2010 22:16 citi.zen wrote: So the plan: 1. Lynch Brownbear a)if mafia.... i.)if roleblocker, go through unconfirmed such as me(if fishball was roleblocked), divinek, rastaban, and fishball. Preffered order I suppose would be divinek, then me, then fishball, then rastaban. In addition, you guys might want to have rastaban let himself be modkilled. b.)If town, then rastaban is mafia(since there is no roleblocker.) We kill him, and hopefully game is over. Everyone follow/agree? Then you guys can go through the rest of us I s'pose. [/QUOTE] Disagree. Primarily with 1b's conclusion - if BrownBear's town, that says nothing about the existence of a Roleblocker or lack thereof. The roleblocker could be you. Steering the town doesn't clear you, and leaving out critical possibilities such as that out makes you even more suspicious. Your recent history of sporadic lying doesn't help either. | ||
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EBWOP: On September 04 2010 11:15 Pandain wrote: So the plan: 1. Lynch Brownbear a)if mafia.... i.)if roleblocker, go through unconfirmed such as me(if fishball was roleblocked), divinek, rastaban, and fishball. Preffered order I suppose would be divinek, then me, then fishball, then rastaban. In addition, you guys might want to have rastaban let himself be modkilled. b.)If town, then rastaban is mafia(since there is no roleblocker.) We kill him, and hopefully game is over. Everyone follow/agree? Then you guys can go through the rest of us I s'pose. Disagree. Primarily with 1b's conclusion - if BrownBear's town, that says nothing about the existence of a Roleblocker or lack thereof. The roleblocker could be you. Steering the town doesn't clear you, and leaving out critical possibilities such as that out makes you even more suspicious. Your recent history of sporadic lying doesn't help either. | ||
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On September 04 2010 11:50 citi.zen wrote: Wait, was DTA mason or "mason-er" - perhaps the person BM had connected with? Oh huh, I hadn't considered this. Never played in a game with a Mason before, so not entirely sure how the Mason role works. Surely the recipient doesn't gain a role. Given that there's only one Mason in the game, I assumed DTA was CopyCat and therefore got Bill Murray's role when he died. | ||
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SiNiquity
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On September 04 2010 12:04 Ace wrote: DTA was Copy Cat. I'll edit the post to clear up confusion. Excellent. Then this gives us a little bit of additional information: If Rastaban is town, then Divinek is town or equivalently, If Divinek is Mafia, then Rastaban is Mafia The reasoning behind this is thus: If Divinek were Mafia and Rasta town, then Divinek would've day vig'ed Rasta on day 1. Passing CV on to Darth (Mafia) would've been completely worth it. Also, more discussion here before lynching, thanks. + Show Spoiler [To CV or not to CV?] + On September 04 2010 11:44 SiNiquity wrote: DTA was copycat huh (pretty sure there was only 1 mason this game, but with BM dying first CC would get his role)? Hmm down to 9 with 2 Mafia left... at this point, is it advantageous to keep the CV? Suppose, worst case scenario, we persistently hit town (I don't foresee this given the large number of confirmed players, but again worst case here): With CV
Without CV
The tradeoff here is Mafia is guaranteed one more hit which will of course hit town (whereas CV has a chance to hit Mafia). However, it also gives one additional use of the Bullet Bill and Tracker, while also removing a potentially dangerous role should the CV turn out to be Mafia. This is of course presuming Fishball is town (tracker seems to be pretty handicapped with the roles taking priority). The fact that JeeJee was killed, confirming Fishball's claim that he was not Mafia, sadly does nothing to confirm Fish himself. Although I'm admittedly surprised Mafia would go after JeeJee rather than someone on Chaoser's list. Hmm... Also who did Fish confirm last night? ## Vote Rastaban (unless someone can show me how the above plan is bad). | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
On September 05 2010 01:17 Pandain wrote: *sigh* Stick with the plan, guys. There are a number of flaws in your argument. For example, you say that if Divinek was mafia than he would have certainly used his day vig on Rastaban. But doing that would be certain death for divinek, so I highly doubt even a 1-1 trade would be good. Add to that the fact that the mafia has roleblocker and you can tell they wouldn't even need to worry that much about him. There is no guaranteed Roleblocker. Please stop purporting that as if it's fact. The gist of the argument here is LSB was Mafia, Rasta (as Mafia) would not want to shoot one of his own, therefore he aims at the Mafia kill (overlapping with it) and then claims roleblock. Rasta shooting LSB is the only time anyone in this game has been allegedly roleblocked. Finally, let's look at your counterargument. You're supposing Divinek is Mafia, Rasta is town. I agree, Divinek would certainly die. However, the Mafia would then not only be in control of the CV (which again, in your scenario they were not), but we wouldn't even know who it was! This trade is easily worth the sacrifice of a single Mafia member. In addition, you yourself say that they can both be town. What are you doing then? You're getting rid of a sure fire lynch we have right now(Brownbear) for a maybe, just maybe lynch. I do not see anything guaranteeing that Brownbear is Mafia. I hope you're not basing your argument on the existence of a roleblocker. Furthormore, add what I have said above about Rastaban to the fact that Rastaban started the whole suscipsion of Divinek(which Mafia would NEVER do at this late in the game.) Agreed, Rasta Mafia and Divinek Mafia is an unlikely combination, which is why I suggest lynching Rasta over Divinek. The point of this lynch is three-fold:
I appreciate what you're trying to do Pandain, but let me be clear: I will not be ordered to do anything. Nor will I accept any plan that is essentially "ok guys so here's what I think? Good? OK good let's go." I've held off on voting previously because I wanted discussions only to find out the town's majority lynched someone by the time I come back. Sadly this town likes being led by the nose and will vote for the first plan thrown out there (which recently happens to be yours). I don't like it, primarily because you are not confirmed. | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
On September 05 2010 01:22 Pandain wrote: In addition, we have a new confuzzlement. The Killing of Subversion. How did he die? CV couldn't have done it(wasn't able to yet.) Mafia wouldn't have done it. Day vig was already taken care of. So that leaves two options: Joat or weak doctor. I'm thinking perhaps either of these should claim, especially the doctor. We need him to keep on "protecting" scum. Or is there something I am missing.... Please discuss before claiming, don't want to give mafia unnecessary info if they don't need it. Yes, you're missing the fact that Zeks admitted to it (Serial Killer). | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
 ## Unvote Rastaban (I don't want a bandwagon going anywhere while I'm gone this evening). Info I'd like to hear before lynching anyone:
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
On September 04 2010 11:44 SiNiquity wrote: With CV
Without CV
The tradeoff here is Mafia is guaranteed one more hit which will of course hit town (whereas CV has a chance to hit Mafia). However, it also gives one additional use of the Bullet Bill and Tracker, while also removing a potentially dangerous role should the CV turn out to be Mafia. This is of course presuming Fishball is town (tracker seems to be pretty handicapped with the roles taking priority). | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
So in my opinion, Rasta and Divinek is impossible. Is this 100%? No. Mafia could just be terrible. | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity's Guaranteed Plan to Win Does not rely on special powers (Bullet Bill, Tracker, Meth Head, etc). FACTS Confirmed: 4 Mafia: 2 Remaining: 9
On September 04 2010 11:44 SiNiquity wrote: If we hit town every night (i.e. we suck / worst case scenario): With CV
Without CV
Last Night: Fishball was roleblocked [IMPORTANT!] Using this information, we can now win the game of Mafia without the use of any roles. READ THIS CAREFULLY. I've looked it over and do not see any flaws, but I'm not perfect. If there are no flaws found within the next hour, vote Rastaban and gg. Lynch Rastaban
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity's Almost Guaranteed Plan to Win Does not rely on special powers (Bullet Bill, Tracker, Meth Head, etc). Does rely on Rasta ==> Divinek Lynch Rastaban
Now about Rasta ==> Divinek. I think it highly unlikely that Divinek would waste an opportunity to grab CV for the Mafia. Granted he did shoot BM, #18, who according to the plan had a 50% chance of being JOAT supposing it had slipped through #6 (50%), #9 (50%) and #12 (25%). It's very much a WIFOM argument - shoot low on the list, avoid suspicion, but pass up a chance at the CV role for Mafia. Anyway, mull it over. | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
## Vote Rastaban. I have some updates that make this even more secure. | ||
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity
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Oh what I would give to have BM in your place right now You're not fooling anyone. Ace declared earlier that you would need to unpardon in the thread (which you didn't), not in PMs, and Zeks was lynched anyway. Despite the fact you can't do what you're alleging to do, even if you could, you and Rasta would be up on the chopping block and I wouldn't be making this ridiculous FSM. | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
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SiNiquity
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SiNiquity's Guaranteed Plan to Win (2.0) Does not rely on utilizing special powers (Bullet Bill, Tracker, Meth Head, etc) in a lucky way. Does not rely on Rasta ==> Divinek Note: Not including the case where Rasta is Mafia as that case is solved (see above post). Lynch Rastaban
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
Well gg fellas On September 06 2010 04:20 SiNiquity wrote: SiNiquity's Guaranteed Plan to Win Lynch Rastaban (Done)
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
Also bringing it to the top of the page so it doesn't get lost. On September 06 2010 04:20 SiNiquity wrote: SiNiquity's Guaranteed Plan to Win Lynch Rastaban (Done)
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
I also like the idea of the most unique number (higher being better naturally). | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
On September 07 2010 09:03 Ace wrote: nah I need the second number because without it everyone will pick low numbers and pray for a good role. Picking 2 different numbers is easier than picking 1 different number. From now on I'll make sure that in the case of ties it's broken by uniqueness before order. So in this example: [7][3] [7][7] [5][7] [5][6] [5][6] Even though both sets have ties (7 and 5) I'll push 7 ahead in the draft order since that is more unique than 5. Then the 7s get resolved the normal way (3 before 7) and the 5s go through another unique tie break. In this case [5][7] is more unique than [5][6] so it goes before both of them. Then the two [5][6] players are resolved by dice roll. Thoughts? Problem Your system is not designed with a player's goal in mind. Your justification for keeping the 2 number system is that it's easier to pick 2 unique numbers instead of 1 unique number. But that's not the player's goal. The goal is to optimize one's position in the list, which hinges on picking the highest unique number. There is little strategy involved with choosing the second number, and it is not justified in the additional complexity. Proof Here's the strategy for choosing the second number. For N > 0, suppose you anticipate overlapping with N players. Then you should choose a number between N (safest, assuming minimal overlap, RNG with the last guy for 2nd to last place) and (N+1)/2 rounded up (riskiest, assuming maximal overlap). This holds both in the current system and in the proposed uniqueness-first system (except the safest bet is N+1 instead of N for N > 1). In the case of N = 1 (arguably the most common case), the optimal answer is always 1 (giving you a 50% chance at the top spot, compared to a 0% chance for any other number choice). Furthermore, the penalty for overlapping in the second column is negligible when compared to overlapping in the first column, and as a result you'll see riskier play here. This mostly explains the distribution of the second column: 35% (7) of the players chose [*][1] and 15% chose [*][2], and those that chose various numbers such as 9, 20, etc. just didn't take the time to analyze the problem (or perhaps misunderstood it). Solution However, since you seem interested in keeping the second column, then I suggest the following: all overlappers are thrown into a single pool, completely disregarding their initial choice, and ordered entirely based on their second number. Overlaps here would follow the current system (edit: with the addition of uniqueness taking priority), with overlaps being bumped to the bottom and RNG'ing within their subgroup for order. In the current system, your first number choice is shooting either for a low number and hope it's not overlapping (e.g. BrownBear's 20), or for a high number but running under the assumption it will probably overlap (e.g. 75% of players choosing numbers 10 or less). In the new system, your first number choice is first and foremost a unique number, as its rank is meaningless if it's not unique. The second number then will play much like the current first number, albeit on a slightly smaller scale (as the pool size will be smaller, yet just how much smaller will not be known from the outset - an interesting twist IMO). This gets you closer to your stated goal: players choosing 2 unique numbers. Hope you take this into consideration Ace. | ||
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SiNiquity
United States734 Posts
On September 07 2010 12:51 Qatol wrote: I think what he's proposing is something like this: [8][1] [8][3] [5][2] [5][5] [5][7] All of these conflict with another pick on the first number. The final list would look like this: [8][1] [5][2] [8][3] [5][5] [5][7] I guess picks of the same second numbers + a clash on the first number would be resolved randomly? So for example: [3][4] [4][5] - End unique 1st col [2][3] [6][6] [1][7] - End unique 2nd col [6][2]* [1][2]* [2][1]** [5][1]** [5][1]** Where */** RNG's within their subgroup | ||
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