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SiNiquity's Guaranteed Plan to Win
Does not rely on special powers (Bullet Bill, Tracker, Meth Head, etc).
FACTS
Confirmed: 4
Mafia: 2
Remaining: 9
- Citi.zen: Tracker
- ~OpZ~: ---
- SiNiquity: ---
- Bumatlarge: Watcher (Batman)
- Fishball: Bullet Bill (has been roleblocked)
- Rastaban: Compulsive Vigilante (has been roleblocked)
- Pandain: ---
- BrownBear: ---
- Divinek: Day Vigilante (shot used)
- Divinek ==> Rastaban (99%)
- Rastaban ==> Divinek (99%)
- No Roleblocker <==> Rastaban and Fishball (100%)
On September 04 2010 11:44 SiNiquity wrote:If we hit town every night (i.e. we suck / worst case scenario): With CV- Lynch,
- Mafia Kill, CV, Tracker, Bullet Bill
- 2 Mafia, 4 Town
- Lynch,
- Mafia Kill, CV, Tracker, Bullet Bill
- 2 Mafia, 1 town.
Without CV- Lynch CV
- Mafia Kill, Tracker, Bullet Bill
- 2 Mafia, 5 Town
- Lynch,
- Mafia Kill, Tracker, Bullet Bill
- 2 Mafia, 3 Town
- Lynch,
- Mafia Kill, Tracker, Bullet Bill
- 2 Mafia, 1 Town
Last Night: Fishball was roleblocked [IMPORTANT!]
Using this information, we can now win the game of Mafia without the use of any roles. READ THIS CAREFULLY. I've looked it over and do not see any flaws, but I'm not perfect.
If there are no flaws found within the next hour, vote Rastaban and gg.
Lynch Rastaban
- If Mafia:
- Remaining 1 Mafia is in (
Divinek, Fishball, Brownbear, Pandain)
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (
3 4 remaining, 6 town total)
- Lynch Fishball.
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Roleblocker exists (therefore cannot be Divinek - this is how he got confirmed).
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (3 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch Brownbear or Pandain
- If Roleblocker: Town Wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (2 remaining, 2 town total).
- Lynch BrownBear / Pandain. Town wins
- If Town:
- Roleblocker exists
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (3 remaining, 5 town total)
- Remaining 2 Mafia are in (Fishball, Brownbear, Pandain), and at least 1 of (Brownbear, Pandain) is Roleblocker.
- Lynch BrownBear or Pandain
- If Roleblocker:
- Remaining 1 Mafia is in (Fishball, Brownbear/Pandain)
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (2 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch BrownBear/Pandain (IMPORTANT! Must ensure BrownBear/Pandain is not JOAT).
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (1 remaining, 2 town total)
- Lynch Fishball. Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (2 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch Roleblocker (other candidate of BrownBear / Pandain)
- Remaining 1 Mafia is Fishball (or highly unlikely, Divinek)
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (1 remaining, 3 town total)
- Lynch Fishball
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (0 remaining, 2 town total)
- Lynch Divinek. Town Wins
- Divinek is fucking stupid for wasting his Day Vig on Bill Murray
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EBWOP: Of course as soon as I post it I notice a couple of mistakes -_-. Not sure if it's 100% under the revised edition. Gimmie couple minutes.
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SiNiquity's Almost Guaranteed Plan to Win
Does not rely on special powers (Bullet Bill, Tracker, Meth Head, etc).
Does rely on Rasta ==> Divinek
Lynch Rastaban
- If Mafia:
- Remaining 1 Mafia is in (
Divinek, Fishball, Brownbear, Pandain)
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (
3 4 remaining, 6 town total)
- Lynch Fishball.
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Roleblocker exists (therefore cannot be Divinek - this is how he got confirmed).
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (3 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch Brownbear or Pandain
- If Roleblocker: Town Wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (2 remaining, 2 town total).
- Lynch BrownBear / Pandain. Town wins
- If Town:
- Roleblocker exists
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (3 remaining, 5 town total)
- Remaining 2 Mafia are in (Fishball, Brownbear, Pandain, [Divinek]), and at least 1 of (Brownbear, Pandain) is Roleblocker.
- Lynch BrownBear or Pandain
- If Roleblocker:
- Remaining 1 Mafia is in (Fishball, Brownbear/Pandain, [Divinek])
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (2 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch BrownBear/Pandain (IMPORTANT! Must ensure BrownBear/Pandain is not JOAT).
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (1 remaining, 2 town total)
- Lynch Fishball.
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (0 remaining, 0 town remaining)
- Mafia win
- Divinek is a genius for assassinating BM instead of Rasta.
- If Town:
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (2 remaining, 3 town total)
- Lynch Roleblocker (other candidate of BrownBear / Pandain)
- Remaining 1 Mafia is Fishball (or highly unlikely, Divinek)
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (1 remaining, 2 town total)
- Lynch Fishball
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (0 remaining, 0 town total)
- Mafia win
- Divinek is a genius for assassinating BM instead of Rasta.
Now about Rasta ==> Divinek. I think it highly unlikely that Divinek would waste an opportunity to grab CV for the Mafia. Granted he did shoot BM, #18, who according to the plan had a 50% chance of being JOAT supposing it had slipped through #6 (50%), #9 (50%) and #12 (25%). It's very much a WIFOM argument - shoot low on the list, avoid suspicion, but pass up a chance at the CV role for Mafia.
Anyway, mull it over.
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Regardless, I was going to vote Rastaban anyway. I suggest everyone does especially to eliminate the scenario he's mafia and goes rogue on us.
##Vote Rastaban
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I urge everyone to vote for Rastaban instead of Brownbear. Face it, a mafia CV will be far more dangerous than a mafia roleblocker at this moment. In addition, lynching Rastaban will both give us more information and go along with Sinquity's plan.
In addition, to further add to Sinquity's plan, I find it hard to believe that Rastaban would be green and Divinek red. Because Divinek would know who the copy cat was(Darth) and would've shot the CV in order to let Darth get that The Compulsive Vigilante. Would they really waste it on BM?
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On September 06 2010 05:25 ~OpZ~ wrote:
##Vote BrownBear
> . Why don't you want to vote Rastaban.
Seriously guys, a mafia CV is a force to be reckoned with.
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Opz(or anyone) may you unvote now as Brownbear's too close for lynch. At least give some time for discussion before you put him at L-1
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Sinquity I don't think you've voted since you've unvoted Rastaban. Have you? Sorry for being spammy just trying to make sure people do stuff.
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Sorry just got back from the store.
## Vote Rastaban.
I have some updates that make this even more secure.
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Also, while we're at it: would you like to roleclaim BrownBear?
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On September 06 2010 04:51 SiNiquity wrote:SiNiquity's Almost Guaranteed Plan to Win
Does not rely on special powers (Bullet Bill, Tracker, Meth Head, etc).
Does rely on Rasta ==> Divinek Lynch Rastaban- If Mafia:
- Remaining 1 Mafia is in (
Divinek, Fishball, Brownbear, Pandain)
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (
3 4 remaining, 6 town total)
- Lynch Fishball.
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Roleblocker exists (therefore cannot be Divinek - this is how he got confirmed).
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (3 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch Brownbear or Pandain
- If Roleblocker: Town Wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits confirmed townie (2 remaining, 2 town total).
- Lynch BrownBear / Pandain. Town wins
- If Town:
- Roleblocker exists
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (3 remaining, 5 town total)
- Remaining 2 Mafia are in (Fishball, Brownbear, Pandain, [Divinek]), and at least 1 of (Brownbear, Pandain) is Roleblocker.
- Lynch BrownBear or Pandain
- If Roleblocker:
- Remaining 1 Mafia is in (Fishball, Brownbear/Pandain, [Divinek])
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (2 remaining, 4 town total)
- Lynch BrownBear/Pandain (IMPORTANT! Must ensure BrownBear/Pandain is not JOAT).
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (1 remaining, 2 town total)
- Lynch Fishball.
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia hits someone from Chaoser's list (0 remaining, 0 town remaining)
- Mafia win
- Divinek is a genius for assassinating BM instead of Rasta.
- If Town:
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (2 remaining, 3 town total)
- Lynch Roleblocker (other candidate of BrownBear / Pandain)
- Remaining 1 Mafia is Fishball (or highly unlikely, Divinek)
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (1 remaining, 2 town total)
- Lynch Fishball
- If Mafia: Town wins
- If Town:
- Mafia kills someone from Chaoser's list (0 remaining, 0 town total)
- Mafia win
- Divinek is a genius for assassinating BM instead of Rasta.
Now about Rasta ==> Divinek. I think it highly unlikely that Divinek would waste an opportunity to grab CV for the Mafia. Granted he did shoot BM, #18, who according to the plan had a 50% chance of being JOAT supposing it had slipped through #6 (50%), #9 (50%) and #12 (25%). It's very much a WIFOM argument - shoot low on the list, avoid suspicion, but pass up a chance at the CV role for Mafia. Anyway, mull it over.
i think your argument is pretty air tight. Except for me being mafia makes rasta mafia, my shooting bm had nothing to do with anything really. I mean there are good bonuses that go along with it, but i just wanted bm to die. I'm sure you people are never going to believe me. But if i was red i doubt i would have used my day vig like i did on day 1 anyways.
I shot bm cause i thought it was hilarious and would actually be beneficial to town (but 99% cause it made me laugh).
i agree that if i was red and rasta was green i surely would have shot him with darth having cc, im not that blind with the idea of hilarity.
to really get beyond the whole wifom of my day vig actions being just for fun you'd have to know how i think, not just any person, or anyone of a particular alignment but meeeeee. Bum probably knows me best and he still has me pegged for mafia , but i still think he's just maddddd.
I'm actually going to be quite surprised if rasta flips town. Seems like there's so much bad stuff against him. But maybe im incorrectly pegging him as mafia, just as he did to me. My vote has to stay with him though
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With 9 alive it is 5 to lynch!
Day 5 Votes
Brownbear(2)
rastaban
~Opz~
rastaban(4)
Divinek
Pandain
citi.zen
Siniquity
Divinek(1)
bumatlarge
Not voting(2)
Fishball
Brownbear
Day 5 ends in 4 hours, 26 minutes @ 9:49 ET/10 KST
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On September 06 2010 06:11 SiNiquity wrote:
Also, while we're at it: would you like to roleclaim BrownBear?
he said ages ago he's vanilla and tried to pick methman. Ez track
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Actually now I'm thinking there has to be a roleblocker and Brownbear most likely is one(as Rastaban HAS to have been roleblocked or he would have been modkilled night two.)
Should we take this into consideration?
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On September 06 2010 06:36 Pandain wrote:
Actually now I'm thinking there has to be a roleblocker and Brownbear most likely is one(as Rastaban HAS to have been roleblocked or he would have been modkilled night two.)
Should we take this into consideration?
i think it was already also said that he could have stacked with mafia kill, and claimed rb
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On September 06 2010 06:37 Divinek wrote:Show nested quote +On September 06 2010 06:36 Pandain wrote:
Actually now I'm thinking there has to be a roleblocker and Brownbear most likely is one(as Rastaban HAS to have been roleblocked or he would have been modkilled night two.)
Should we take this into consideration? i think it was already also said that he could have stacked with mafia kill, and claimed rb
Oh yeah forgot you can do that.
I suppose its irrelevant(sort of) anyway since as long as we follow Sinquity's plans and that one essential assumption is correct than we win.
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That seems solid. It all weighs on whether or not divine values his life more then giving mafia more KP. If it ends up mattering. Which is a good shot.
unvote
##vote Rastaban
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I'm 95% sure I may have a fix for this (can currently guarantee if we get roleblocker on first lynch after Rasta flips town that we win). Pretty sure I can patch up the rest too so that it's all 100% guaranteed. Bear with me.
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EPT
