EPTGodfather Mafia
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First off is this little tidbit from the rules post: Starting Mafia KP: 1. Starting means that number isn't going to stay at 1. If we fuck up our first few lynches and vig hits, we're going to hit a wall where mafia KP is just going to be too high to recover from. Between the recruitment, mafia kills and daily lynch, mafia have the ability to drop 3+ town votes per day. Assuming they play perfectly, mafia kill 2 people per day via lynch and night hit and gain 1 voting power per day. More dangerously, i'd assume that mafia gain a kp, either at 3 or 4 members. If 3 is kp=2, which we'll find out tomorrow, its possible that they move to kp=3 if they have a full 5 members. 5 members, however, would be a situation in which town has missed 4 subsequent lynches. 3 missed lynches is generally a loss condition in F11, so this isn't really that far off. This means that by day 3, there are going to be 16 players alive, 4 of them mafia, 12 town. The day 4, we hit 5/8-9. At this point, unless we have hatters, vig and double lynches available and used properly, we lose unless we kill the godfather. This is assuming that the town kp isn't improperly placed, and that we don't double lynch inaccurately. This means we need to figure out who the GF is by day 4 or we're boned, put simply, or hit goons one after another. Given this, if we have shitty leads on day 3, we might want to consider claims given the information we have, but not before then. Why not before then? Well, its pretty simple: If the Godfather is checked by a DT, do you return "Godfather"? Yes, all DT checks are 100% (minus roleblock). We can't let our DT(s) get recruited or killed early because they're the only non destructive way we have of identifying the GF. Given the shitshow of a last game, I'd like to be able to have our day 1 lynch proceed smoothly. Because of that, I want to know what people think about the following idea; We have one of the two masons claim. Given that we have verrrrry likely have medic(s), they can prot him and keep him alive during the game. If the player is lying, one (not both!) of the real masons can call him out. Given the fact that there are only 2 total mafia members today, it would cost the mafia essentially half their team to contest the mason claim. This is also a reason why claiming immediately would be more helpful than claiming at a later date. The downsides of this? Godfather now has a person he knows not to recruit, and the mason might die once mafia kp gets over 1. If we do that, we have a confirmed townie who can essentially drive our vote; if he's wrong, cool beans, it happens. If he's right; awesome. Either way, it'll prevent exploitable intra-town conflicts. | ||
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Masons can both claim, but we probably only have enough jail action to keep one alive, and we can't co-ordinate protection without jailer claims and frankly that's a non-starter. Given that, it really doesn't make sense not to have a single confirmed townie confirm himself. If we do it at a later date, say around day 4, mafia might simply gambit and have 2 members counterclaim to control, say, a double lynch, which might end the game on us. Having a mason claim isn't a game ender because we can't PM him role information, but it does give us one person as a base for analysis. Like I said, the tradeoff is halfing the chance that the GF tries to mason recruit, but that's a paltry 10% anyways. | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:20 Korynne wrote: Um, I don't see why both masons should claim. Even if we had two jailkeepers that's one less jailkeeper to protect other people. So I think what's on the table for debate right now is whether we should have a mason roleclaim or not, and only one. Also L, you're still ignoring my roleblocker plan. -.- I'm lookin' at it :3. I see some pretty large problems with it, specifically that mafia KP is 1, which means that a no-hit night is a fantastic way to frame someone. Additionally, there's a problem in that the roleblocker needs to somehow get information into the thread about who he's chosen to roleblock unless we use a set rotation and the moment he does he's gonna get stolen. I also don't see how we can run a rotation if the roleblocker himself might be put into the lineup, because that would be a bit off. The only workable alternative is that we have the roleblocker come out into the open and we chain-jail him. We can only really do that on day 1 because if we don't, that would be a very, very good place for mafia to gambit and contest the block. There's also the coroner issue; unless the mafia kp meter is hovering at a breakpoint, killing a mafia won't even be known. Even if we shoot the real roleblocker, the mafia stand in might simply pretend he's blocked someone random and have his team put a no-hit list in. Put simply, we will not know how many mafia members there are, and whether or not a particular kill of ours is effective until blues step up. The moment another group of blues step in, our jailor won't be able to protect them all from recruit/hits. That's kinda the catch this game; unlike a game wherein mafia would be outted by a gambit, here we might have an early coroner kill, then zero certainty regarding roles thereafter. | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:32 youngminii wrote: Well it'd be better to at least role block the better players for the first night, seeing as you can't DT on the first night. I think plan 2+3 would be good, at least for now. Also, if we do end up following these, the mason (one) should claim if they try to get recruited. It'll be a compromise between the three plans. Uh, why would the mason TELL the godfather that he failed? Why wait for a recruitment to claim? | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:35 rastaban wrote: As an example, if we agree to roleblock L, the worse that could happen is that he is DT or Jailer, all the other roles are nearly unaffected. But this means that tomorrow we have a confirmed townie who is innocent and a good player. The second thing it does is force the GF to start recruiting less obvious players since the prominent ones will be detected so quickly. It is worth risking losing 1 DT check (on a 1/20 chance) to gain that knowledge. We don't have to continually do them, but for the first few turns it would be very stong. Ok, now really off to bed  Actually, it means that I'll 99% likely be recruited or killed if i'm roleblocked, because regardless of my role, I won't be jailed, and if i'm a mason, i'll be recruitable during the night. The alternative is that mafia decides to spare a hit tonight because they think i'd be jailed in the future and pull their hit on me to control the day 2 lynch. If that's the case, mafia just need to control the day 3 lynch and they win unless we pull off some wizard shit the next day. If someone wants to get all DT ups ins on me, by contrast, cool. | ||
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On July 01 2010 14:43 Korynne wrote: Hmm, so if we implement the roleblock idea. We always have one confirmed townie for a day, so that townie can fill the role of the mason role that L mentioned. So we don't have to out a mason. Thoughts on this replacement? We don't get a confirmed townie for a day. We most likely get someone who's recruited at the end of the night. Actually should probably ask how that works. Darth, if someone is both recruited and roleblocked during the same night, what order do the actions take place in? | ||
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##vote double lynch BM, wut is this. I expect answers tomorrow mornin'. G'night. | ||
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Since it hasn't been discussed extensively, I would like to talk a bit about the coroner role. I would not be surprised if we have at least two of these. For this reason I don't think that any town voting type activation is appropriate. That being said, of course people are going to say 'oh this would be a good time for a coroner'. Use your own judgment. I HIGHLY disagree. We cannot mislynch day 3. Unless we lynch correctly tonight or tomorrow, we need to pop a coroner on night 2, night 3 at the latest. This ability should be used to help generate new momentum in the town. If we have good leads already, this power would generate additional information that we might not be able to act on. Instead use it when we're in a situation that is more stale. The longer this power is held on to, the more powerful it becomes. I definitely would not use it before night 3 under any circumstance. Probably not until at least night 4. Also, just because a DT fingered a godfather and we lynch does not mean that this power needs to be immediately used. Sure, it'd be satisfying to know for sure, but game play only changes somewhat because of it. If we already have a good lead on other scum, it may be more valuable to hold out an additional day. If you were to wait another day and it turns out that it wasn't a godfather, we're still going to lynch the lying DT. Blues that die prior to day 3 should claim if they are an investigative role using the name/eman format. We'll have coroner information to check what role you are. I think that we should either be lynching a) inactive b)someone likely to be GF c) someone very very likely to be mafia. Korynne. This post alone of your has done more than the entire BM/You conversation to make me think you aren't town, but given the numbers I'm still pretty sure you're on our team. Useful content instead!I'd vote for you to get roleblocked for tonight, but like I said roleblocking someone who's top flight essentially gives mafia a worry free recruitment or kill. Since I like your posts most of the time, I'd rather you have a potential jailin'. Out of all the players who I think might have been picked as a target, Hesmyrr's been a bit too quiet. I like him, but I have a feeling he'll rage against being recruited and make it plenty obvious he's switched sides if that happens. Just sayin'. It happens. As for the masons plan; if we're going to do it, now's the time. We've already had 1 shitfit go down between two players that I'm pretty sure are town. I'd rather not have that amplified into day 2 and give a growing scum team a few easy lynch controls in the process. | ||
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On July 02 2010 09:45 Bill Murray wrote: Also, brownbear, thanks for noticing i'm not scum. Really hard one there. You say that, yet people failed to realize the same last game. Just sayin' bro, most people are bads. | ||
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On July 02 2010 10:03 Bill Murray wrote: it's true. i'm not sayin' i'm good either, but at least i know how to read and be active. like earlier hesmyrr is trying to say i need to provide reasons for voting double lynch when i provided 3 if i was mafia, i wouldn't want to risk being an idiot, and i wouldn't want to act scummy. i would stick to 1 liners a lot more, and i sure as hell wouldn't vote double lynch. i figured that 10% chance of lynching the godfather is better than a 5%. 1/10 of essentially locking up a win day 2? not terrible odds. I figured it might be in line with a random lynch > a no lynch on day 1. Since all the policy and math people are disagreeing with me, I suppose I'm wrong on this. My 3rd reason I can't really remember, but I know I had one. I think it was something like "it'd be better to use them now than to not use them at all and perish as a town without having ever used them". Sort of like your qualms on mislynching multiple times. then I get brownbear claiming i'm spamming and worthless now, when i have been scumhunting more than anyone. While we do indeed benefit by killing the GF early, we only have 2 double lynches. I'd much prefer having one ready later on to drop mafia kp or clean out 2 mafia when our DT and coroner information comes in. | ||
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Ah jesus. | ||
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Well, this is straight up fucked up now. | ||
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On July 02 2010 13:41 Korynne wrote: What if zeks says that, and then we're all like omg what if he's jail keeper? And then he goes on and says he's mason to make himself safe. If the real masons saw that, maybe the real masons both disagrees with L's plan and think that zeks could be jail keeper or some important role we don't want to kill? Just a possibility to throw out there. Also, we can confirm that people can PM each other by asking one of them to post an encrypted message in the thread, and then later on if we need to confirm the other guy (ex. if the first guy dies and the second guy is about to be lynched) we can have him give us the key to the message and the message will decrypt to say like, [...] is my mason partner or something like that. So if zeks dies, and then two people try to claim to be his mason partner, we can use that to verify it? We can just use his post death post to do that. Anyways, sleep time for me. As a parting topic; the roleblocker 'plan' isn't dead either. There are a few variations I can think of using ordered, random or voted groups to create roleblock patterns. I haven't thought everything through regarding those, but we have the night to talk about it too, so no huge rush. G'night bromigos. | ||
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Each of us should vote for 3 people we think we should roleblock. Out of the top 3 candidates, the roleblocker himself selects one and tells no one of his choice. In doing this, the threat of the easy lynch/recruitment is lessened, and mafia can't decide to frame people by selectively opting for no-hits. The only issue is that on day 3 we'd need the roleblocker to come out and say what's goin on, but day 3 is already our do or die day. We can switch the jailer to him perpetually thereafter if there is no counter claim. There's a 1/8 chance, or so, that the roleblocker is recruited prior to that point, but given how the coroner works and how mafia can manipulate their own hits, I don't see a superior alternative. That said, I'd be very accomodating to tossing yellowink into the first pool of 3. Better then killing a potentially good player. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:13 rastaban wrote: What about for lynch, Abenson is getting close to lynch, and I don't think we have any eveidence to support that since he has started speaking up. He posted on page 31 or so. He's generally really bad, so between him and a player I'm not 100% certain about, I'd probably choose him. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:22 citi.zen wrote: Wait, wouldn't this defeat the whole purpose here? If we're chain blocking the same person twice, there's no action that needs to be taken on a no-hit night before day 3 anyways. Don't see how this defeats the purpose, but feel free to tell me. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:24 DarthThienAn wrote: Thoughts? Continue playing Lufia 2, or scramble up a pretty Lynch post? Lufia 2. Do the 100 floor dungeon. Kill the boss slime. Gives us time to chat. | ||
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By contrast, mafia can also recruit someone who is being roleblocked without the mafia team being locked down, so any information we get is bullshit. I really don't see how TELLING mafia how to psyche us out over by giving them highly exploitable information is going to help us out. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:40 citi.zen wrote: The requirement we give up the RB is what I dislike with the modified plan. It could be bad in many cases - we kill a red, block them, etc. I don't buy the "day three or bust" claim. Also, should the rb die or be recruited we learn... nothing at all. Finally, pl,acing three in the "pool" implies we don't lynch them nights one or two - which I would rather not commit to. Sorry for spelling, on phone. Well we sure as hell can't lynch them night 1 as is, and we already committed to not lynching them immediately under the old plan. We aren't giving up the RB at all, either. It just becomes less exploitable. If the RB doesn't pull up a mafia, and chances are it won't, there's no need for the blocker to reveal himself day 3 either. That said, if we don't hit a mafia on or before day 3, run the math. I already did. We're put into a massive hole. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:53 rastaban wrote: Worse case scenario goes like this now 17/3 (2 mob + 1 traitor) day 2: 14/4 day 3: 11/5 day 4: 7/6 - if we hang GF this night day 5: 6/5 - we have to be right every night from this point on or lose, I would say though, that we are unlikely to be THAT unlucky so day 4 would be more likely 8/5 which puts us in a bad place but I would say day 4 is most important. Not sure if my day 4 is your day 3, and I am not trying to argue for or against any claims with this just want to put the numbers out there. If mafia controls day 3's lynch, what day do we end up at. That's rite. | ||
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On July 03 2010 10:57 rastaban wrote: With so many people unable to vote on Ls new plan I say we go with the old and then modify it for night 2 if needed. Final tally was by my count: citi.zen - 2 (Korynne, BM) Korynne - 1 (Chezinu) YellowInk - 5 (lakrismamma, youngminii, rastaban, Abenson, BrownBear) rastaban - 1 (Hesmyrr) To Roleblocker: If the majority doesn't change, please roleblock YellowInk. Roleblocker acts during the night. We have 24 hours to talk about this. | ||
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On July 03 2010 11:04 youngminii wrote: Mafia doesn't necessarily control day 3's lynch. The plan isn't to put absolute faith in those that are roleblocked, the plan is to check to see if they're scum. If they're not, they're put back in with the rest of us where they may or may not be scum. If they are, it gives us a kill. This is an interesting post. Please elaborate. | ||
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On July 03 2010 11:17 youngminii wrote: Unless I'm misunderstanding something, you're suggesting that if we go on with the plan, mafia will control day 3's lynch. The main purpose of the plan is to find people aligned with mafia. The plan is not meant to prove the innocence of anyone. So if we use the plan and we fail to find anyone aligned with mafia, then in the worst case scenario.. On day 3, there will be 11 pro-town and 5 anti-town. 9 to lynch. They wouldn't necessarily 'control' the vote as they would need 4 pro-town to vote with scum. To make things worse for scum, the traitor wouldn't know who's who and the mafia themselves don't know who the GF is. It doesn't seem that hopeless for town. They don't necessarily 'control' the vote until they hit their win condition of outnumbering the plan. They do, however, have the option of faking being RB'd to push the town into a very easy lynch on someone who isn't mafia on day 3, which is the same as controlling the lynch. No one has ever said that we need to trust the person who's been roleblocked if mafia hits go through, so I have no idea why you're even mentioning that. Without a jailer to protect from recruitment, the roleblocked player is a fantastic recruit target. As for the potential 'flaw' in the plan, I don't see why you assume we're sitting on the same group of 3 for 3 days? As stated above, we aren't proving innocence with our roleblocks, so unless mafia miss a hit, there's really no reason to not draw up a new 3 man list each day. | ||
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What the fuck. | ||
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I'll suggest that if you want to take a shit on my plan, develop one that doesn't let mafia completely control how we proceed. I'd rather not give them a huge chunk of exploitable material to work with, but lakris would disagree. On the plus side, he's succinct. Sleep time. | ||
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On July 05 2010 00:54 YellowInk wrote: I had come to this conclusion before the game had started. I didn't say as much because I didn't want to let on that mafia could play so aggressively. This is why I objected to L's plan. This is why I don't trust zeks. To be honest, I havn't figured out a counter strategy to aggressive mafia play. Ignoring roleclaims gets us nowhere - I'm not about to lynch zeks or a cold claiming DT either. The only way we seem to be able to win is if we get lucky enough to lynch the godfather within the first few days. After this, chances seem really really slim. There's a big difference between a game with a cult that can recruit, but not kill, where the cult leader dies when they try to recruit mafia... and a cult that can recruit, gets KP, and doesn't die to night hits or poor choice of recruit. This is why at the start I felt there really wasn't much chance for town unless we have multiple free masons (or get super lucky). From DTA's earlier description of how he set up the game, I believe we only have one free mason pair and one set of lovers, though. Since the idea of aggressive mafia play is clearly out in the open now, lets discuss. How can we counter if it mafia plays this way? There's a reason why I wanted the masons to come out on day 1; On day 1, there is a single goon and a single godfather. According to the rules, they aren't in contact. Either the goon or the Gf fake claiming into the position of mason essentially does so alone. If the real masons see this, not only do they know they've caught a mafia member, but they also know that they can 100% confirm their innocence by revealing the second mason pair if their claim is contested. Worst case scenario, one dies for the goon on day 1, leaving 0 mafia or a dead GF on night 1. Assuming a 0 sized mafia team means 0 kp (which makes sense given how night 0 played out), mafia would essentially have accomplished nothing, thrown away a kp, giving the town a free correct lynch and they would have given the town's RB and DT an extra day to sniff them out, and the hatter an extra day to lay bombs. It is absolutely 0% possible for mafia to claim into masons on day 1 unless one of the following happens: 1) there are no masons. 2) the masons are incredibly stupid and stay silent. On the other point; how can you counter aggressive mafia play? Well it seems pretty simply; you need to kill the GF. This is why I've been saying that day 3 is our final stand. Mafia can gambit wayyyy too much into the final days if we give them a cushion. Additionally the easiest way is to call for full roleclaims on a certain day coupled with double lynches and potentially intentionally lynch the hatter to take out as many people with conflicting claims as possible when we're at that apogee of information. We might have 1 or 2 annoying recruitments after that fact, but being able to channel 6 town controlled hits into a group 9-11 people who are highly likely to include the GF gives us a fighting chance. Its not a fantastic idea, but frankly I don't see better options. | ||
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L, did you read this? I laughed a bit when I did. No one counterclaims vs Zeks. You yourself analyse that all rational reactions to a fake claim would involve a single or double counterclaim. You then state you're still suspicious of Zeks. You then state that the town having 2 known 100% confirmed townies sharing 50% medic protection chance is horrendous for us, and that it benefits mafia hugely because they got lynched on day 1. You also surmise that we'll roleblock the worst possible target for roleblocking when the information is known. The only almost-even move would be a traitor fake claim, and even then he just trades himself for a mason identity instead of trading himself for up to a full double lynch and coroner by stirring shit up during a double lynch. Uncharacteristically bad logic from you :/. I'll assume it has to do with a hangover because I have one too. | ||
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I have been chock full of parties. I'll post some ideas when I get back (likely midway into tomorrow). | ||
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On July 16 2010 22:55 bumatlarge wrote: Yeah, thanks Divine, you asshole. And then half you people start band-wagoning off your ridiculous intuitions instead of lynching important people. We would have lost this if L didnt get modkilled. pretty sure you'd have won at the 2-1 lylo situation. The entire idea of getting the masons confirmed would have been to give the town a lead in confirmed members who would be automatically non-favored mafia hits because it would be unlikely to have a real power role in the hands of the masons. Given that the DT/Jailer are so powerful, we'd have always been trying to knock those two out over zeks. BM played perfectly well in letting zeks claim and then not protect him. That's actually what I assumed would happen, because fronting such a telegraphed protection normally lets medics protect others under the certainty that the target won't actually be hit. | ||
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