TL Mafia XXVII - Page 24

On June 14 2010 09:23 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Vivi57 just ninja'd a vote:

+ Show Spoiler +

People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people.

On June 14 2010 09:34 Chezinu wrote:
This is a pretty good argument imo

On June 14 2010 10:38 Radfield wrote:
This is simply not a good argument.

On June 14 2010 10:36 L wrote:
Foolishness, I have a problem.

Your last defense is essentially:

I hate people who give the town information.

and

I play anti-town every game (ignoring the fact that you've been mafia for the vast majority of your recent games).

That's pretty fucked.

I've finished the thing I mentioned earlier, so I'm pretty solid on the idea that we shouldn't kill you for today. That said, if we kill AFJ today and he flips red, you are 100% our next target.

On June 14 2010 10:47 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:


Uhhhh care to explain why lynching foolishness makes sense if I were to flip red? o_O

On June 14 2010 10:38 Radfield wrote:



This is simply not a good argument. Yes, it takes minimum two nights to figure out a detective's sanity, we all realize that. Night one we narrow it down to two possibilities. If you flip red, then we know that the detectives are either insane or naive. Now we get them to check someone who they trust to be town-aligned: A green result means they're naive, a red result insane. Bingo, we have the alignments down. It takes two nights, but it's worth it. Our medic and watcher should be able to scare off the mafia from taking down the blue roles(tree.hugger ) so we'll probably still have everyone on board by that time.

Or, we don't lynch you, learn nothing about the sanities, and basically disregard our two detective roles as useless.

On June 14 2010 10:53 L wrote:

No.

On June 14 2010 10:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:


then don't shit on the thread with your useless, non-backed-up thoughts.

On June 14 2010 10:59 L wrote:


They're pretty useful because if I'm killed tonight after you're lynched, I'd rather that mafia members don't survive.

If you actually are town, the statement would have been null to you anyways.

On June 14 2010 10:55 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:


Yes, a MINIMUM of 2 nights to learn the alignment of the detectives assuming they are telling the truth (this is a big assumption). After I flip green, that minimum is reached only if at least one of the detectives happens to get back a red rolecheck on the 2nd night. What is the likelihood of that?

A better plan is to wait until a red role check is returned. Then, that red is lynched. If they flip green, they you can lynch me because you'll know one of the detectives is insane. If flip they red, then you'll know I'm clean. Tell me, genius, what disadvantage approaching it that way gives. Since mafia KP does not decrease (KP is always 1) there is no advantage to lynching me now rather than once red rolechecks come back (unless I'm the best mafia candidate the town can come up with). We should be assuming that detectives are sane but checking to make sure they are as we lynch people, not the other way around. Coming up with strategies that assume detectives are less likely to be sane (I'm looking at you, L, and radfield) is confusion-spreading mafia behavior.

On June 14 2010 11:09 Foolishness wrote:

As Radfield said, we need to learn something about the alignment of our DTs. You guys sort of half committed to this plan yesterday when it was decided everyone should roleclaim and coordinate DT checks.

Yeah, I think you're mafia and I gave my reasoning and analysis. Even if I hadn't, we got to follow the plan and lynch you. Yeah, I know it's really fucked up and all, and I surely didn't vote for it, nor did I choose to have the DTs inspect you but that's how it is.

Pending all that, do you have someone you'd rather lynch? Yeah I know you want to kill me and L does too but anyone else? I mean, if you made a nice little post explaining how citizen is suspicious/inactive and then compare his attitude in this game to the past game where he was mafia (I'll just go ahead and tell you right now he's acting exactly the same), I could very easily be convinced to lynch him and not you.

On June 14 2010 11:05 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:


Why are you taking every opportunity you have to try to make me look bad? I was interested in your reasoning behind that statement because it would be informative to know whether there is any semblance of logic behind why you want me lynched (allows me to know whether you are a mafia trying to bandwagon me or a townie who is overly paranoid).

Let's make a deal -- you analyze citizen and actually spend a few minutes reading my post explaining why lynching me isn't a good idea, and I'll do the 2 analyses I mentioned.

On June 14 2010 12:24 MooCow wrote:
Even though I invested AFJ I still don't think we should lynch him because even if he is mafia they still only have 1KP so that doesn't really change much unless we get a role blocker and either way if we do get role blocked again someone should come out and say so.

I'm one for lynching the inactive in this game especially because of the 1KP mafia. Either way AFJ is heavily in the spotlight we can rest assured that he'll be banging on about something in the coming days, which would either help us or make us lynch him.

Now with AFJ being suspected of being a mafia and me coming out and defending him will obviously make me look like a mafia.

If I were mafia I would not chose to investigate another mafia target.
There were a couple ways I could of avoided this situation.
1. Chose the target before letting LuDwig chose the target. Why would I want to risk investigating another mafia member? ( I'm a lot more active than LuDwig but I let him chose ). I wanted to investigate someone inactive so we could lynch them as a test pig.

2. I wouldn't come out here and try to defend him and draw attention to myself. The risks of me doing this as a mafia almost has no reward. If it were 1KP/2Mafia then yea I would of been rewarded if AFJ is safe but doing this gives me nothing as mafia. If he flips red I can plead insane/paranoid and it puts me in the same boat as LuDwig. ( I also posted my findings on AFJ before LuDwig did )

So I don't think he's really mafia but maybe he is. For today I think we should just look at 2 of those inactive, lynch one and pre-plan for the night so we can all be on the same targets ( meeple, if he checked AFJ and came out with his information this would be a lot easier )

On June 14 2010 11:20 L wrote:
if I'm Dvigged by mafia...I might get Dvigged at any time during the thread