TL Mafia XXVII - Page 23

On June 14 2010 06:41 Foolishness wrote:
Hey for any non vets out there, did you know that you could request roles before the game starts? I sure didn't.

On June 13 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Hey guys, just wanted to let you know I got role blocked last night. Guess the mafia thought I was blue. What this is means is that if no one else claims to have been role blocked last night, this is evidence for me being town-aligned, which means that we should be able to narrow down what kind of detective ludwig is. Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched, but hey, I'm just saying what happened.

On June 13 2010 08:06 Incognito wrote:

On June 13 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:

On June 13 2010 10:04 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
and yes radfield, I find it random that I was role blocked too. perhaps they suspected I'm a vig or medic?

On June 13 2010 11:26 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Also, reiterating, if anyone else wants to say they got role blocked, please do. If no one else speaks up you should be able to put some trust in that I was the one role blocked and therefore probably not mafia. If someone does speak up then it will be obvious that they are mafia if I get lynched and flip town.

On June 13 2010 11:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'd appreciate it if you'd state that greens get PMd when they get role blocked.

L, sure, I'm looking forward to what the watcher has to say. If he did watch me he'll find that I was visited by a mafia and even be able to give us who it was. But that would mean the mafia fucked up massively last night by role blocking me given that they knew I was going to be watched...

On June 14 2010 07:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:


I've been thinking about why I was role blocked, and it makes more sense now. Clearly if the watcher watches the person who gets role blocked, we catch a mafioso. With 4 confirmed blues, and the mafia not knowing for sure which blue is which (so they couldn't just role block the watcher), it makes it very risky for them to role block one of the blues for fear that our watcher will happen to watch the role blockie. So they decided to just try to role block the medic through an educated guess (does my posting behavior come across as medicy?).

Now, they did take a risk in hitting tree.hugger, since if meeple was watching tree.hugger he'd have seen who killed him. But I think they didn't want to take a high risk - low reward with their role blocker.

On June 14 2010 07:34 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Apparently he's going to be more active starting today. (according to a PM exchange I had with him)

On June 14 2010 07:12 Radfield wrote:
+ Show Spoiler +

I imagine that because flamewheel hosts so many games, he got a special bonus from a fellow host. Not a big deal.

More importantly, after being mostly inactive since midway through the first day, why are you focusing on this and not more pressing matters?

On June 14 2010 07:15 L wrote:

Because he wanted to make a post that appears to have content but doesn't.

Does anyone know how to use TL's search to find all of someone's posts in a certain thread? Would make this much easier for me.

I appreciate the concern, but I just made a post with content (although I'm sure you're going to claim otherwise for the sake of your argument). And AFJ even posted my PM where I said I'd be gone for a bit. I know I'm going to regret writing this because you're going to jump on me and claim I'm mafia off of ridiculous assumptions, but as you said "haters bring the hate".

On June 14 2010 08:26 L wrote:
So here's my post on Foolishness:

Foolishness at the time of me writing this has:

Posts at the: 66 84 100 111 168 173 179 283 429 432 positions in the thread. There's a very strong concentration around the early game, then a strong trending presence late.

66-100: Foolishnesses first three posts are pre-game, but they're very interesting in light of developments to come.

In 66, Foolishness basically jokes and says he's been mafia quite a lot and that he wants to be mafia again.

In 84, Foolishness asks for the game to be delayed if people want him to play, then he's cool with the starting time in 100 and signs up.

In 111, Foolishness asks if PMing is allowed. K.

Post game start:

In 168 Foolishness basically puts up an empty post. He does nothing more than lightly beratethe plan and tell someone else he doesn't care about something. Odd.

In 173 he starts dogging flamewheel with an admittedly Chez-like post. He asks a bunch of questions and leaves things like that. Again: Odd.

In 179 he basically starts up by stating that tree.hugger couldn't possibly be the tracker because claiming would be stupid. He also suggests killing Ohn in a one liner and drops the idea. This post marks the first bit of Foolishness's productive content.

100 posts later in 283, Foolishness makes a one liner townie claim.

429 rips on Flamewheel for rather irrelevant shit.

432 paints Flamewheel as Godfather because he asked the host for a role.

Foolishness has 2 posts after this.

1 is large and with real content.

The other is small and does not.

First, to deal with a claim made of me:



No, you don't appreciate the concern. You didn't post that PM in the thread. You didn't tell the town that you were going to be afk. You replied to a PM and stayed silent about your activity, trying to downplay suspicion. You clearly weren't as afk as you'd have liked it to appear because you were worming around in PMs. Why the hell wouldn't you go "hey bros, busy weekend"? I had a lot of work to do this week and said so. Why hide shit?

On June 14 2010 08:26 L wrote:
What's more, why the well timed inactivity and reappearance? You specificially wanted the game to start later then were happy about its start time, so what's up with that? You've been known to do this in many of your games as blue or mafia, you go afk at the start to keep yourself alive until you're excessively prodded, and only then do you go to work. Typically you wait until day 3, but I guess you were worried that AFJ would pass the buck onto you today?

On June 14 2010 08:26 L wrote:
I mean, I have no idea what to think here. You're either the medic, the day vig or a mafia member. That said, you're suspicious as all hell. I wouldn't advocate killing you today, nor do I feel like pushing against you because I think there's a high possibility that it'll force meeple to come out to defend you if you are the medic, which would essentially end the game for us.

There's a lot in your post history that doesn't add up. I'm going to check something so give me a few hours.

On June 14 2010 07:43 Foolishness wrote:

Does anybody else feel like this post was scripted? It reminds me of PYP mafia when Radfield pretended to be saved by a medic even though he had no way of knowing he was saved (and he turned out to be the Assassin).

Starting with the positives, it's good that you claimed to be role blocked as that potentially reveals your innocence. It's good that yes, this could mean your death will help us figure out the detectives alignment.

But now I'm really curious. Of particular notice to me was the time stamps on the posts:


Assuming Incognito didn't tell you night action until day post went up, you busted out your claim there in a whopping 9 minutes. That seems to me like you were waiting for the post to come up before posting your claim of being roleblocked.

I'm not denying you got roleblocked, I'm saying you're mafia, and the mafia purposely roleblocked you to try to save you.

Consider this, Ludwig announces that he's rolechecking AFJ, for whatever reason. Ludwig seems to be a spur-of-the-moment kinda guy, so let's think about what happens. Assuming AFJ is mafia, the mafia team upon reading Ludwig's post is going to be all "shit shit shit what do we do". They know MooCow still had to send in his hit as well so that puts them in a very very awkward scenario.

With two detectives, AFJ is going to get crosschecked. If one of the results turn up mafia, then he's going to almost certainly die, no matter what his alignment in. Mafia know this, so they try to come up with a plan to try to save AFJ. The way they can do that is by roleblocking AFJ. AFJ can claim in the thread that he got roleblocked, and even if detectives give him a mafia, he will be spared (hopefully).

Which seems great and dandy except the mafia have absolutely no reason to roleblock AFJ. The mafia know AFJ is getting cross checked, why would they bother to roleblock him? Especially considering four blues claimed in the thread.

Even if the mafia predecided "k we're sniping tree.hugger no matter what" there's no reason why they would not choose to roleblock meeple. Meeple, is the only one who claimed watcher, and thus the mafia can be assured that the identity of the roleblocker will not be revealed if they roleblock him. The only way things could go badly if there's another watcher (seems unlikely given 2 cops) or if tree.hugger doesn't die and happens to track the roleblocker. Seeing as how the plan was for him to track one of the two DT's, or possibly meeple, that wouldn't happen.

Given that the mafia chose not roleblocking meeple, which would have been nearly 100% safe for them to do, tells us that something is wrong. Plus, out of all people, why block AFJ? Does anyone think he's done anything to merit being a possible blue.

Except it doesn't make sense for the mafia to suspect that. Nor does it make sense to roleblock the person the DTs are checking.

You put a lot of emphasis on this point in your first post and in this one. You knew that you were getting roleblocked so you say this sort of thing to prove your innocence. You say "Of course, there is the possibility that if I was mafia, mafia could waste a role block on me to create this exact situation to prevent me from being lynched" to try to prove yourself innocent.

Did you really think that situation through in under 9 minutes after you received the PM that you got roleblocked? It took me a while to realize that something was odd about the roleblock and that the explanation that you are mafia is the only thing that makes sense. You being able to process all that through in 9 minutes is quite impressive...

Most people if they got roleblock would probably not claim immediately and be like "shit shit what do I do? Mafia want me dead...shit shit". I would expect said person would not claim until after multiple people have posted saying "yes, if you got roleblocked, please claim in the thread". Jumping the gun and posting you got blocked is wayyy too odd.

People have already outlined the scenario that none of the DTs are normal. Given that there's already a watcher and a tracker, don't you think a normal DT would be a bit too good for the town? I don't think the results of the checks mean anything given that AFJ was roleblocked.

I also never recall it being the plan for the watcher to watch the person who was getting checked by the DT. The plan was for the watcher/tracker to look at the DT's (or tracker to track the watcher). I don't remember reading anything about "k, DT's and watcher all go on same person".

Overall, you getting roleblock makes no sense given the amount of roleclaims in the thread. You posting yourself getting blocked 9 minutes after day starts (and not to mention posting something that feels very scripted) does not follow a typical innocent attitude.

I'll comment on this since you just posted it as well:

The problem here is that the mafia could have roleblocked meeple without much worry. Sure, meeple could claim he was roleblocked, but he's the only one who claimed watcher. Furthermore roleblocking meeple would have halted our finding out about the innocence of our two DTs.

I'm sure the mafia is happy about killing tree.hugger, but their choice not to roleblock meeple has apparently given rise to a powerful town circle of blues. Was it really worth it for them to waste their roleblock like that? Definitely not.

It's a bigger risk for the mafia to try to kill tree.hugger than to try to roleblock meeple (or tree.hugger for that matter). As outlined before, the only way roleblocking meeple would turn out bad is if tree.hugger decided to be stupid and track some random guy. Knowing tree.hugger that's highly unlikely. Hitting tree.hugger is incredibly risky though. He has a good chance of being medic protected, and if he got protted the a big town circle would form. And although the plan was for meeple to watch a DT, meeple could have easily justified watching tree.hugger. (imagine this, day 2 started and meeple says "hey guys so I decided to watch tree.hugger, person X visited him so he must be mafia"). I'm pretty sure we would kill that person without much hesitation.

Thus the mafia took a big risk in hitting tree.hugger; a risk that is definitely much bigger than roleblocking one of the claimed blues.

And no, your posting is not medicy, it's mafiay. If you're indirectly trying to claim, best do it now.

I told you in the PM you posted to keep PMing me. You didn't do that.

I also sent this to AFJ upon finding he didn't respond to my PM:
-----
No response to my earlier PM? How sad...I really thought you were innocent but now I'm second guessing my self...
-----
And he still didn't respond. And I sent this awhile ago and keep expecting a response sooner or later given that he's posting in the thread. Why would he ignore me if he was innocent?

On June 14 2010 09:30 Chezinu wrote:
uhh, We still have 24 more hours.. Isn't day 48 hours this game? wait a minute it isn't night..

On June 14 2010 09:31 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:


oh jesus I thought it ended tonight. nevermind.

move along nothing to see here folks...

On June 14 2010 09:23 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Vivi57 just ninja'd a vote:

+ Show Spoiler +

People, if you are just looking at the last page of the thread, vote for me ONLY if you think I'm suspicious as mafia, NOT if you think it's going to reduce detective uncertainty. If I get lyched and flip green, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are naiive or sane. If I get lynched and flip red, you'll know that both detectives (or 1 if there's only 1) are insane or naiive. So guess what? This doesn't help much; either way they could still both (or the 1) be naiive. The only way to know for sure the detective(s) sanity after that will be if the detective happens to get back a red role check and you lynch them. Banking on that happening soon isn't smart. This is not a good plan for the town, people.

On June 14 2010 09:34 Chezinu wrote:

This is a pretty good argument imo,

Oh! another tip: If you are the person about to get killed you should totally pretend to be Dvig and type a command to kill someone. That will add suspense!