EPTTL Mafia XXVII - Page 21
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
|
L
Canada4732 Posts
either way, I'm getting some shut eye. its 3am. | ||
|
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
I had very little opinion on the matter that would've meant anything. It's irrelevant. If you really want to know, I'm incredibly busy because I'm graduating this weekend. Once it's sunday I'll be active as normal, but I told Incognito if I were to play I'd be a bit inactive the first day or so. I glad you're trying to seek out inactive people and figure things out, but you need to concern yourself with more pressing matters, like which of the blues that claimed so far is lying. Would you really believe 4 blues would claim all on the first day all based off of some one paragraph plan that wasn't even thoroughly discussed? As a townie, you should be more concerned about the current situation. Worry about me in 2 days (real life days I mean). Of course you can still PM me, just don't expect a response in a timely manner for another 48 hours. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: who do you think should be lynched today? why are you so quiet? | ||
flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
On June 13 2010 15:41 L wrote: I highly doubt that MooCow would suggest and check someone who is also mafia given that our current plan is to axe him in order to give DTs role information. Its possible that one is trying to set the other up, but both of them being mafia seems incredibly unlikely. You not checking AFJ kinda makes getting information our DTs harder, but if you've confirmed that there's a medic, that's awesome. The problem is that now our lynch choice is much harder. I personally don't think AFJ is mafia because he's acting pretty emotionally, but I haven't gone through his past games to see how he plays mafia. If that's the case, then its possible that up to 3 people visited AFJ yesterday. If i'm right and he's not mafia, then he isn't the medic either because he wouldn't lie about being roleblocked and meeple picked up a medic. Unless meeple is lying or if the hatter dropped a bomb on ludwig and thinks he and meeple are both mafia which seems very unlikely. So basically we're kinda at a null point in terms of the objective information. We can either kill AFJ to let our DTs narrow their potential sanities, or we can attempt to find someone else. Personally, I have tomorrow off and don't need to work all day, which means I'll have time to look into 2 people too. I think i'll pick flamewheel and foolishness because 1) flamewheel is cute and 2) foolishness is not posting which piques my interest. If I'm too busy to do a full post history on those 2, I'll do a gut feeling map of the people playing like I did last game. Love you, L. I'll try to do analysis on somebody tomorrow, if I wake up on time. | ||
|
LuDwig-
Italy1143 Posts
AFJ is TOWNIE now i go to read all the three pages of posts  | ||
|
LuDwig-
Italy1143 Posts
2 sane DT in the game? no possible at all.. so: 1)AFJ is mafia-> 2 useless DT (not really possible in my opinion or the game would be unfair) 2)AFJ is town-> a)we have 2 sane dt (not really possible as above) b)we have one of the two naive (always town) c)one of the two is insane (random) About the rest of the game: meeple apparently looked at me! it is a good move! We have to continue to control our blue roles to catch up the mafia move. Next time don't say "i will look him" because mafia can simply avoid that targets. Chezinu you look suspicious to me..really..or i simply don't unerstand you way of posting... | ||
|
LuDwig-
Italy1143 Posts
| ||
|
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios. MooCow detective, Ludwig detective: The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable. 1 detective, 1 veteran: If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan. I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch. | ||
|
LuDwig-
Italy1143 Posts
On June 13 2010 16:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok. 2 "detectives" checks have come back townie on me. I think this should convince most of you that I'm indeed townie so that we don't have to waste a lynch. The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios. MooCow detective, Ludwig detective: The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable. 1 detective, 1 veteran: If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan. I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch. ahh this post makes me smile. Why? Because you are not saying:"Mafia we will find you" but "Please don't lynch me!" I really understand you! XD | ||
|
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 17:00 LuDwig- wrote: ahh this post makes me smile. Why? Because you are not saying:"Mafia we will find you" but "Please don't lynch me!" I really understand you! XD I *think* what you are trying to say is that I am defending myself rather than going after mafia. If this is the case, then I would ask you to read my last 20 posts in this thread and then see if you still feel that way. I am just trying to show that lynching me at this point is irrational, and trying to push the town into a more productive direction. | ||
|
MooCow
1434 Posts
AFJ + Show Spoiler + On June 13 2010 16:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok. 2 "detectives" checks have come back townie on me. I think this should convince most of you that I'm indeed townie so that we don't have to waste a lynch. The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios. MooCow detective, Ludwig detective: The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable. 1 detective, 1 veteran: If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan. I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch. Yep, even though the results are good ( both us DT's getting the same results ), I think we chose a bad target ( AFJ ) to investigate because I don't think he's suspicious or mafia like enough and the results show him as a townie As I said before we should of investigated someone that was inactive or someone that we were willing to lynch 100% as a test figure to check everyone out. I know LuDwig had to sleep so he just chose AFJ which is fair enough imo. So as a town group maybe we can chose 2 people before hand ( while we still have 3 days before the night action ends ) to chose who we want to investigate/track then we can get some very solid information. | ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On June 13 2010 11:26 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Also, reiterating, if anyone else wants to say they got role blocked, please do. If no one else speaks up you should be able to put some trust in that I was the one role blocked and therefore probably not mafia. If someone does speak up then it will be obvious that they are mafia if I get lynched and flip town. You seem to have left out one obvious option. You are mafia, with the roleblocker on your team, possibly even the roleblocker. You know your back is up against the wall and that you're a prime lynch target for day 2, so you don't roleblock anyone to gain some credibility. This seems quite likely to me, as it makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to have roleblocked you. Smacks of desperation. On June 13 2010 16:56 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok. 2 "detectives" checks have come back townie on me. I think this should convince most of you that I'm indeed townie so that we don't have to waste a lynch. The possible scenarios right now are MooCow and ludwig are both detectives or 1 of MooCow, Ludwig are detective 1 are veteran. I didn't include the scenario where 1 or both are role claim faking because it doesn't seem likely that a mafioso would risk there being exactly 1 detective or exactly 1 veteran but not both (otherwise there'd be 3 role claimed detectives and clearly 1 would be lying). I also didn't include the other clearly improbable scenarios. MooCow detective, Ludwig detective: The only way I would turn out to be mafia is if both of them are either naiive or insane. This seems improbable. 1 detective, 1 veteran: If I'm mafia, this would imply that we have one naiive or insane detective. We won't gain much from lynching me because if I flip townie that will only say that our detective is either naiive or sane. Furthermore, we won't know whether to trust ludwig or moocow's findings because we won't know which is the detective unless they both decide to reveal their roles. This undesirable situation is a result of L's rather myopic plan. I hope this justifies going after other targets besides me today (hopefully going after someone that seems suspicious from their voting and posting behavior) since lynching me would provide minimal help and waste a townie and a lynch. Again, I have to disagree with your analysis. First off, we have a tracker, watcher, medic and two dt's, and a minimum of SIX days to find only 4 mafia in a 17 person game. That is insanely unbalanced for the town even if mafia have a godfather, roleblocker and dayvig. How do you balance that out? By putting in some nasty sanities for the DT's. You think it unlikely, but with a tracker and watcher around, I think it VERY likely that both are DT's have funky sanities. One being useless(naive) and one being insane sounds about right. Even assuming that some people are lying about their role, it still fits that we would have an insane DT. Not to mention that I don't really trust Moocow at this point. No offense moocow, but a DT role is the perfect place for a mafia to hide, because you can never be held accountable "oops guys, I guess I'm naive". It is very important that we lynch AFJ, because we really need to start narrowing down the sanities. The entire plan was to lynch AFJ regardless of what the alignment checks came back as. The fact is, AFJ STILL seems completely scummy to me and worthy of a lynching anyways. Not to mention that he's done a ton of posting, so if he flips red we can glean a lot of info from his posts. That being said, we should still be doing post analysis on people. I went through the thread last night and a few people jumped out a me, but we can talk about them once AFJ is out of the way. ##Vote: AcrossFiveJulys (for effect) | ||
|
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On June 13 2010 20:15 Radfield wrote: You seem to have left out one obvious option. You are mafia, with the roleblocker on your team, possibly even the roleblocker. You know your back is up against the wall and that you're a prime lynch target for day 2, so you don't roleblock anyone to gain some credibility. This seems quite likely to me, as it makes absolutely no sense for the mafia to have roleblocked you. Smacks of desperation. I already addressed that possibility in an earlier post. Sure, it's possible from your viewpoint and I encourage you to keep it in mind. Again, I have to disagree with your analysis. First off, we have a tracker, watcher, medic and two dt's, and a minimum of SIX days to find only 4 mafia in a 17 person game. That is insanely unbalanced for the town even if mafia have a godfather, roleblocker and dayvig. How do you balance that out? By putting in some nasty sanities for the DT's. You think it unlikely, but with a tracker and watcher around, I think it VERY likely that both are DT's have funky sanities. One being useless(naive) and one being insane sounds about right. Even assuming that some people are lying about their role, it still fits that we would have an insane DT. False. We know we have (had) a tracker and that is it. We may not have a medic or any of the other blue roles. Not to mention that I don't really trust Moocow at this point. No offense moocow, but a DT role is the perfect place for a mafia to hide, because you can never be held accountable "oops guys, I guess I'm naive". I agree with this. So how is lynching me going to help, then, genuis? Especially since we have no way of knowing whether MooCow or Ludwig are actually detectives? It is very important that we lynch AFJ, because we really need to start narrowing down the sanities. The entire plan was to lynch AFJ regardless of what the alignment checks came back as. The fact is, AFJ STILL seems completely scummy to me and worthy of a lynching anyways. Not to mention that he's done a ton of posting, so if he flips red we can glean a lot of info from his posts. There was no such plan from the beginning, it was only suggested (by me actually) when ludwig said he'd be role checking me. What about my posting is screaming scummy to you radfield? That being said, we should still be doing post analysis on people. I went through the thread last night and a few people jumped out a me, but we can talk about them once AFJ is out of the way. ##Vote: AcrossFiveJulys (for effect) I have no idea why you are so deadset on lynching me. All that is going to happen is I flip green and you still won't have a clue about which of ludwig/moocow are detectives and/or their sanities (they could be naiive or insane). Think logically about what kind of information will be obtained and whether that is worth wasting a townie and a lynch. If people are convinced that I'm mafia due to my posting and voting behavior, then fine, that's enough reason to lynch me. But doing so to reduce uncertainly about our "detectives" is nonsense. | ||
|
AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
| ||
|
Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
I have no idea why you are so deadset on lynching me. All that is going to happen is I flip green and you still won't have a clue about which of ludwig/moocow are detectives and/or their sanities (they could be naiive or insane). Think logically about what kind of information will be obtained and whether that is worth wasting a townie and a lynch. If you flip green, it narrows down their sanities to naive or insane. This is much better than having no idea at all. Lets imagine both role checks had turned you up red, or one red and one green. Either way, each detective gets narrowed down to two possible sanities. There is no possible way to figure out a dt's sanity after only one check. I am trying to think logically, and surely you agree that this is the only way to start narrowing down their sanity. We have a lot of time as town in this game, and no matter what you flip, we gain valuable information from lynching you. Do I absolutely think 100% you're mafia? Not at all. But I'm suspicious of you, and it's definitely worth lynching you at this point to help establish Ludwig's and Moocow's sanity. Suspicions: -Poor arguments against L's plan, then poor arguments again to L's plan -Lots of spam early on -Your roleclaim post seems off, and is filled with trying to distance yourself from L's plan -Lots of corrections to peoples posts and obvious statements, but no real suggestions. -These two statements seemed bizarre at the time to me, and still do. They are back to back posts, and seem like a huge stretch to draw the conclusion that you did. It seems safe to say that mafia spread themselves out in the non-RC'd / townie / blue list. So we probably have 2 mafia that role claimed townie, 1 that claimed blue, and 1 that has not role claimed. Oh sorry, and off of that assumption we have a 50% chance to get a mafioso if we lynch one of the non-RC'd people (meeple or chezinu). Switching my vote to meeple. -Wishy washy in your voting: You voted for meeple on very thin reasoning, talked about switching to Jspazz on a whim, and then finally switched over to redtooth on my rather shakey reasoning. -You posted this lol guess I get to be the sacrificial townie. (suppose it would be in the interest of the town to lynch me no matter what I role check as if the town trusts ludwig) and are now trying to do everything you can to avoid getting lynched -The whole roleblocking thing, which seems completely made up to me. -This post seems very fake to me Shit looks like meeple didn't watch me last night unless he changed his mind after this post. Some other minor stuff as well. The more I look through your posts the more likely it seems you are mafia. These are a few of the reasons you strike me as mafia. Look on the bright side, if your town, we probably have a sane DT. Hooray! If you're mafia, you now know what to fix for next game. But the most important thing is, it's worth lynching you even if you are town because our dt's checked you last night. | ||
|
MooCow
1434 Posts
Flamewheel *First post he revels he's actually the Godfather, lynch him. Posts in the actual start of the game : 18 #141 Gives some of his thoughts on the balance of the game. Nothing really solid. #151Wants to lynch an inactive which we did ( Jspazz ) #164He's up for roleclaiming which we all eventually do except for Chez. #242 A bit later he rc's townie, just in between the mass rc'ing of townies. #279 Gives his thoughts on 2 people rc'ing DT's ( MooCow and LuDwig) but imo doesn't really say anything useful. #326He votes for himself ( knowing that he won't be lynched but just as a placeholder because he won't be back in time for the voting ) He also gives a plan that's almost exactly the same thing I posted for the 2 DT's and watcher to do. Lasts few posts were just *one *liners not saying much. Conclusion He's actually not that active in this game imo. A lot of his posts end with something like he'll be back in a few hours or has to do something for a few hours, which is understandable, but may also be a mafia trying to cover up for his inactivity. He doesn't say much in any of his posts but he did say he will do an analysis. All of these things make me suspicious of him and I think he's mafia from my analysis so far. | ||
|
LuDwig-
Italy1143 Posts
Are they sane, insane, naive? The only way to know it (or at least starting to make thnigs more clear)is lynch AFJ .. I also thought on lynching MooCow...because i really don't believe him...If it turs out red it would be a great move..but if he is a DT for real? That would be a huge loss for the team that can make us loose the game. We can lynch another people at random..but then..why simply don't lynch you? | ||
|
LuDwig-
Italy1143 Posts
On June 12 2010 07:47 Radfield wrote: ##Vote Redtooth can you explain this? In this thread you say a thing then you do another one? | ||
|
MooCow
1434 Posts
On June 13 2010 23:29 LuDwig- wrote: I think that we need to put some fixed point in the game. We really don't know nothing for sure. We only know that two people claimed DTs, that they told us they rolechecked and that AFJ is green. Are they sane, insane, naive? The only way to know it (or at least starting to make thnigs more clear)is lynch AFJ .. I also thought on lynching MooCow...because i really don't believe him...If it turs out red it would be a great move..but if he is a DT for real? That would be a huge loss for the team that can make us loose the game. We can lynch another people at random..but then..why simply don't lynch you? What? You're not making much sense... You can lynch me if you want if it helps the town i'm all for it because DT's aren't that useful as you say. Also I don't think we should lynch people at random either... that's why we are trying to find suspicious behavior from players and such to lynch them... and not... randomly.... | ||
|
MooCow
1434 Posts
On June 14 2010 01:04 LuDwig- wrote: can you explain this? In this thread you say a thing then you do another one? ??? Lol. That was his vote from yesterday.... Today ( using TL time June 13th ) Radfield voted for AFJ.. | ||
| ||
