TL Mafia XXVI
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The second post also makes no mention of mafia roleblockers. | ||
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--- Good morning gentlemen (and ladies?). I've looked through the thread by now. I see lots of discussion of clues. That's cool. Keep that information in mind and look for themes and connections to later clues, because that's the only way you'd catch mafia off of the clues. There's history for this, go read up on any game with clues you like. I was in this game and we failed miserably on clues trying to get mafia (of course, when half of the clue discussion is coming from the mafia in that game, it's not too hard to see why). I see three people have announced they're running for office. They're good people to keep an eye on, sure, but they're also willingly throwing themselves in the spotlight so they're under pressure. What I don't see is much discussion of what we, the town, should be doing. The only serious heat right now is on YellowInk (and that from clues, so I'm not buying it). There's been almost no talk about any game strategy at all. Some quick notes about blue roles: Medic saves and veteran hits will be told to all involved parties (well, not whoever did the hitting, but they'll know the hit was blocked when the day post doesn't have the target dead). If you get medic protected, congratulations--you've just 100% confirmed for yourself that someone is town-aligned. Medic, if you protect someone, let them know it was you who saved them. It's possible that a mafia could try to play the medic in this situation, but there are dangers for them: firstly, if it was a veteran night life instead of a medic save, the mafia claiming medic is immediately outed. Secondly, the person who was saved will get two PMs (assuming the actual medic does his job) from people claiming to have saved him. We then just lynch the people who PM'd the saved person. If we get the mafioso, great, we're done and the other guy is legit and confirmed. If we get the medic, tough luck, but we snag a red the next day. If you take a hit, either from medic protection OR from being a veteran and living, speak up. The mafia knows they hit you anyway, so you're not giving them any information. Telling the town is good. Don't tell the town how you were protected, just say "I took a hit last night." I'm not sure how we should capitalize on a medic save, because I've not thought about it much. I'll mull it over today, and you should think about it too. But to be honest medics are a really tough role to play and medic saves are pretty rare (the only one in Pyrry's game was after the result was essentially decided), so don't count on this situation arising. But we definitely want to be able to take advantage of it if it happens. --- You may have noticed that I didn't mention Vigilante hits above (this is relevant to the medic discussion; it's theoretically possible for a medic to block a Vigi hit aimed at a mafioso). Vigis shouldn't be too trigger-happy, and I think it's in our (the town's) best interest to give them advice on whom and when to hit. This gives us the same information that voting does (though without the modkill penalty for abstaining), and lynches are the town's biggest asset. Making a vigi hit into a lynch is good if the town is active enough. If we go this route, medics should obviously not protect the vigi target, and this neatly prevents the chances of a medic blocking a vigi hit on a mafioso. It doesn't prevent a medic from blocking a mafia hit on a mafioso, but generally speaking mafia aiming at themselves is a good thing for the town because some of those hits are going to land and the town will celebrate the red bodies --- There's other stuff to discuss too (and more roles I haven't talked about. I'll give some input later on if needed, but this has taken me long enough to write for now so I'm cutting off here). The election would be great, but the candidates need to say more. I don't believe for a second that the ink death is a clue pointing at YellowInk because it's too obvious like our resident clue expert MTF said. --- I saw my name on a possible-linked-to-clues list. The quote of issue is from Feynman and I like it because we attach special significance to certain arbitrary sequences of letters and numbers (like 5000, for instance. Why is 5000 more notable than, say, 5023? It isn't, really) and the quote encapsulates that quite nicely (as well as talking about probability like Darth mentioned). That said, license plates definitely belong on cars, but there were car clues in Pyrry's game, which I was in, and I was a medic there. When/if I start acting like a mafioso then you should push for my lynch. --- This post is enough of a clusterfuck already, so I think I'll cut off here. I want to hear more from all the mayor candidates, especially zeks who announced his candidacy then zonked out for the night. | ||
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YellowInk wrote: He [crate] later mentions offhand that a medic could block a hit on a mafia, but doesn't clarify that this flaws his original argument. No, I covered that. There are two groups with kill power: vigilantes, and mafia. If the medic blocks a vigi hit on a mafia, either the vigi fucked up or the medic did (read my discussion on vigis). This should not happen. If the medic blocks a mafia hit on another mafioso ... yeah, ok, that works but look at the risk/reward involved. The risk is the mafia hit might not get blocked in which case the mafia sacrifice a mafia member for nothing, and this risk is huge. If we assume that the medics protect at random and we assume 3 medics then it's still more than a 90% chance that the targeted mafia dies. The mafia have no way of knowing whom the medics are going to protect. Are you seriously suggesting that it's in the mafia's best interests to aim at one of their own on the off-chance that it nets them a medic protection? I'm not even sure it's good for the mafia to target one of their own even if the hit gets blocked; they're still giving up one kill, after all, in exchange for getting a medic to think the targeted mafioso is town-aligned. There is basically no chance that a medic will block a hit on a mafia unless the town's vigis play very badly. In addition, vigis cannot hit on night 1. | ||
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For example: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93562 http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93286 Also any game where decafchicken played and wasn't mafia If there are clues pointing to you, they are not that obvious. In addition, it's common to not have every mafioso in every day post (such as in the two games I just mentioned). | ||
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The only way that having roleblockers would affect our strategy is if the mafia figure out one or more blue roles and consistently block them; all this means is that the blues have to not out their roles to the mafia, but that's the normal plan anyway. I've been reading and I'll have comments before I go to sleep tonight for sure. Nice to see some more actual discussion since my post this morning. | ||
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Darth has a very large word-count-to-post-number ratio, but half of that is that he quotes entirely too much text when he only needs a sentence or two to provide better context :p His plan for a day 1 lynch looks good (lynching inactives serves to force all players to be active, which benefits the town, and furthermore it's a metagaming play by discouraging lurking in future games which eventually leads to either lots of town victories or better play from at least the mafia side), but I think I'd be more in favor of zeks's method because we get information from a vote count. He's been talking about strategy somewhat, but mostly Brownbear, alright, so he's trying to get pardoner. I've not decided which office position mafia would like to have more ... pardoner is more obviously powerful in a way because it wastes a lynch, but the sheer fact that it's more obvious makes it less desirable. Upping mafia vote power to 8 instead of 6 can be a big deal too, so mayor is pretty good in that respect. Denying the town the protection and gaining the immunity to rolechecks that goes with either role is obviously huge. But anyway, I'm not trying to discuss that here; I'm posting impressions of the candidates, so I'll return to that. His plan for what to do as pardoner is, well, pretty obvious (kill mafia, save good guys!). It sounds good, but it sounds like politician-speak so I don't think it means much. Most of his activity is either his campaign post or his recent discussion with YellowInk. Certainly this is more activity than the average player who's said, well, mostly nothing of substance--having an inactive elected role is wasting the position of invincibility. YellowInk has put more words in the thread than probably anyone else. Much of it has been jumping on mistakes and claiming that he's clean and can be confirmed, a good deal of the rest has been poking holes in plans. I don't recall him saying what he'd do with his mayor lynch if he wins, but I could have missed it in my skimming the thread again in his sheer number of posts. --- Right now no one has really convinced me in this election, but I'd be voting for Darth or zeks over Brownbear or Inky. I like zeks's vote-for-lynch idea. I don't have a solid scum read on anyone right now, so let's look at inactives so far. As of MTF's post: barth AcrossFiveJulys Icysoul LaXerCannon supernovamaniac had not posted. Since, AFJ and supernova have posted saying they'll post later. If we return to bum's compiled clue link list, we have the following people: 1. TheGilaboy 4. crate 7. onihunter 8. MooCow 14. zeks 16. YellowInk 17. DCLXVI 18. TyranoS_NiveK 19. jiabung 21. LaXerCannon 29. deconduo I see LaXerCannon on both of those lists, so I Vote: Lynch LaXerCannon if the elected decides to go by majority vote. I'll vote for mayor in the morning, since I'm going to bed soon. Let's see some names from the mayor candidates: who would you be lynching if you win? If you decide, like zeks, to go with a majority vote, who are you voting for yourself? Names and reasons, I want more information. Even you Brownbear. Humor me for a moment even though you're not trying to win. Let's say some freak accident occurs and you do; answer both questions please. | ||
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@MTF, zeks: I'm not running because I didn't feel like it ... same reason I didn't run in the last game I was in. Thanks for your support though. Heck, MTF, had you run I'd likely have voted for you, so I think we're in the same boat. Also, if you notice, my username has no capital letters in it. This is a bit of a personal pet peeve, because it just looks horrible to see that capital "C" dragging my whole name down to the left side. It's so lopsided. Darth wrote: Dude, who manages their quoting. lol. I just quote crap and respond to it. I spoiler the big stuff when I remember to. I do, lol. It's much easier to follow arguments this way imo. --- Alright, onto points actually relevant to the game: Darth wrote: 1) The fact that BB goes for pardoner, a great position for mafia and also a position more "under the radar" is suspicious to me. If you'll read what I said earlier, I'm not sure pardoner is better for mafia anyway. It gets them out of a single lynch for free, then they immediately lose the pardoner the next day; Mayor pretty much buys the mafia an entire day as well (by giving them +2 vote power) but does it much less obviously. The biggest benefit of either position is that the owner is un-rolecheckable and un-night-killable really. I don't know if mafia really cares which position they win as long as they win one of them. Assuming they're running (seeing as there were no mafia candidates in Pyrry's game which was a pretty similar setup, it's certainly possible no mafia are running). Then again, it seems the consensus (at least from Darth and MTF) is that pardoner is more powerful for the mafia. Of course, mayor is more powerful for the town. . . . YellowInk wrote: The reason for doing it this way is because someone who is completely inactive will be modkilled. If I use my lynch on someone who is probably going to get modkilled anyway, this is a wasted lynch. I agree with this. I'm going to cite precedent and reasoning here: someone who is mafia is far, far less likely to sit around and get modkilled than a town-aligned person. I think the only time I've seen a mafioso get modkilled is when Zona did in PYP mafia (which the mafia had all but won until he vanished and gave the town a free kill), but I've seen lots of vanilla townies get bored or something and get lightning'd. That said, it's too early to say for sure who's gonna get modkilled since we still have about 10 hours before the end of Day 1. Brownbear wrote: the reason why another of our policies is Lynch all Liars. I see this one in particular as a metagaming policy. In the short term (as in, this game) I'm not convinced it's actually the best way for us to win (lots of townies slip up and "lie", especially newer or inexperienced players. See zeks for a good example; I'm convinced his mistakes are just honest mistakes, because it's the same sort of stuff he did in Pyrry's game). If it's known that lying gets you killed, though, it's harder for mafia to hide. --- Well, I said I'd vote this morning, and I guess it's time to follow through on that. I guess I'm going with Darth in my vote, which I'll go post immediately after I submit this. My thoughts haven't really changed too much from last night. YellowInk's spotlight argument really applies every bit as much to Darth as it does to himself (they are the two most voluminous posters in the thread, after all, though it's clear Ink is more aggressive), and he seems levelheaded and he has some experience. None of the candidates are really giving me a scum read right now. zeks is playing much like he did in Pyrry's game where I was convinced he was a blue because he advocated a play that only made sense if he was a blue (or Godfather claiming blue, but that's very dangerous in a fully-open setup) ... he turned out to be town though. Hopefully no one will flip out and vig him too soon this game :p Darth and, yes, YellowInk have been constructively posting and are thrusting themselves in the spotlight. I've agreed with Darth's analysis a bit more, but they've both been a plus to the town thus far for sure. I think YellowInk had focused too much on mostly irrelevant details (the clue check, the actual numbers of zeks's DT suggestion) but nitpicking isn't necessarily a mafia trait ... I'm just hoping he doesn't get the town too caught up in it at the expense of more important discussions. Brownbear is saying good stuff, but much of that saying good stuff comes after other people have already called attention to it. It's easy to follow others' good ideas regardless of which side you're on ... I'd be more wary of BB than the other candidates right now personally, but if he keeps posting we'll be able to get a better read on him. Something we should watch with all the active posters (including people who make one or two quality posts a day, like MTF) is for their activity to drop. Getting in the town's good graces early on then shutting up and not having anyone notice ... dangerous for the town to potentially let a mafioso do this. I have to say the candidates this time around are much more solid than the candidates in Pyrry's game, where the best candidate was posting like the worst one in this race. This is a nice turn of events. Hopefully the elected roles don't lead us to a horrific slaughter like the last time I played. | ||
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Any more thoughts on who you're lynching, Darth? | ||
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Unfortunate that jiabung was town, but at least he didn't have a special role. | ||
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It only holds any weight if you threaten to lynch inactives and then follow through. However, in doing so, you're costing the town in this game. Mafia can continue to do the bare minimum pretty easily and have much more incentive to do so than town does, so I think that if the town is lucky we'll get one mafioso dead from not posting enough to meet the requirements, tops. We'll have more material on the less-active mafia this way, sure--they'll be posting at least twice a day instead of once, and it'll have some substance--but we won't have the lynches to punish them for it because I will guarantee not every town-aligned player is going to post enough (not in this game, at least. Perhaps in a game where we're pretty sure that everyone will be active), so we'll have to drop the hammer on those townies. If you don't lynch people who don't post enough, then this makes some townies and the mafia post more actively on day 2, then they realize there's no teeth to the threat and they can stop and likely some of them will. As a metagaming play, I think it's okay. Keep doing it, and eventually it'll pay off because there will be activity from everyone (the assumption here is that people who sign up know that this is the standard etc.). I don't think it'll help the town in this individual game though. I'll go random up some numbers if you want me to look at some people tonight/on day 2. I'll catch up later on the rest, but I wanted to offer my thoughts on this now. | ||
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I read it as being offered more as an ultimatum, which is where the metagaming comes in and where it most likely hurts the town this game. | ||
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I'm not going to be focusing on the game from here till the day post though so I'll wait till then. Do note, guys, that when someone dies we should look through their posting history. That's not to say that the mafia always kill people just because of what they say in the thread ... but you can glean some useful stuff from looking at this. Here's hoping we don't lose any DTs, medics, or particularly active people. Might be a bit much to hope for if you do the math, but I'll hope anyway | ||
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The night kills were as good as we could hope for. Only two deaths is good news. I'm really tired, but I think you guys can get along till I wake up tomorrow and have time to really catch up. See you then. | ||
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So, like I said last night, I was planning on following YellowInk's plan to look at about four people. I've chosen onihunter from the thread--I wanted someone with some decent activity to look at but not one of the most visible people (so not any of the mayor candidates, LunarDestiny, MTF, and obviously not myself) and onihunter fits the bill--and randomed the other three. Random.org gave me 13, 8, and 3 (well actually I got icysoul's number 15, but he hasn't said anything nor voted so I picked a replacement since he's likely to be modkilled and there's no point analyzing him if he's just going to die). So today I'll be looking at onihunter, AcrossFiveJulys, MooCow, and Zyrre. My next post will cover onihunter and AFJ, and then I'll get to MooCow and Zyrre later on. Figured I'd annouce my intentions right now though. | ||
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--- onihunter: Posts since the game began: 30 (starts with post 196). About a half-dozen of those can be disregarded as meaningless to the game (going to bed etc.) plus one vote Voting history: Day 1 vote for DarthThienAn at June 05 2010 01:39, following post 406. Notes: Suspicious of YellowInk at the start (posts 196 through 226); not-as-suspicious on the second half of Dat 1 (post 290, 355); supports Darth from post 290; math about mafia hits (posts 585, 587) Thoughts: Much of onihunter's posting is going as the rest of the town goes. Early on, YellowInk is under suspicion from, among others, zeks, MTF, and MooCow and onihunter agrees with this. Roughly when MTF posts that he thinks YellowInk is town-aligned (around post 229), I see the town's perception shift to the same thing and it's here that you see onihunter start being less suspicious. The only post onihunter makes in this immediate timeframe (from post 227 to post 290) is one saying he'd read the thread, which is meaningless. He also votes for Darth in a very active voting timeframe in the middle third-ish part of Day 1. There's a short run of votes for YellowInk, followed immediately by a short run of votes for Darth (start here and go until Brownbear changes his vote). The fact that the town has been so single-minded so far makes it really hard to get a read on someone who's following the pack. He's been active and that's a big point in his favor, but I think we should keep an eye on him once we start having to make tougher decisions (like today's lynch). Possibly connected to: DarthThienAn? Hard to say. --- AcrossFiveJulys: Posts since the game began: 5 (starts with post 314) plus one vote Voting History: Day 1 voted for DarthTheinAn at June 04 2010 20:59 (after post 314 and before post 442) Notes: Post 314 is worthless. AFJ therefore is voting before he's said anything in the main thread; Called out for inactivity and responds (post 599); says Darth + YellowInk is likely pro-town (442); claims to be much more active on Day 2 (post 599); responds to Thegilaboy's accusation (post 657). Thoughts: I don't like voting without reasoning and especially voting before you've said anything. He's played mafia before and calls Day 1 unimportant but in a previous game he played (here, he says this: AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote Which really doesn't match up with AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go byand it just serves to confuse. in post 599. (I was reading over that previous game as it happened and I thought there was plenty of information on Day 1 in it myself). I also think it's odd that AcrossFiveJulys tells Thegilaboy to look for clues pointing at AFJ in the Day 2 post (in post 657). I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of this. Furthermore he claims that he's been tracking certain people's behavior (post 599) without posting any thoughts on whom or why. I definitely want to see what AFJ has to say today and I'm interested in whom he was watching. I'm noting that it's been Day 2 for some time now so if AFJ is going to deliver it's high time he does so. I'm not real happy with his behavior so far and I'm definitely suspicious of him now that I've read over his posts more carefully. His inactivity contributes here as well. Possibly connected to: DarthThienAn, Thegilaboy --- Note that my choice of the color red has no real importance. I wanted some way to emphasize that wasn't bold (taken by my headings) and was more obvious and readable than italics. Like I mentioned earlier, MooCow and Zyrre will be examined later on, hopefully before I go to bed tonight. I'm holding off on voting until either someone presents a compelling argument for a target or till I look at MooCow and Zyrre. | ||
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On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote: Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1). I'm not sure what you're suggesting here. | ||
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On June 07 2010 04:06 littlechava wrote: He's suggesting that the medic who saved MTF come out and tell MTF that he's a blue role/they're both on the same side. Questionable tactic though, since MTF probably wouldn't be able to trust the guy - it could just be some mafia member trying to gain his trust. MTF has no way of verifying whether the person PMing him actually saved him. How do you know it was a medic who saved MTF? He could be a veteran (which would also explain why in his very first post he says he's not running for mayor; veteran is the worst role for the town to elect). | ||
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On June 07 2010 08:15 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: The point is that even though I had a feeling about billmurray, I did not push it and try to get him lynched early on because I knew how easy it is to misclassify people early on. I still feel like there's some inconsistency here; Day 1 should not be unimportant. Being active on Day 1 is as beneficial as being active later (though I personally feel like there's more to discuss when Day 1 has a lynch instead of an election, but I digress...). AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I have no idea what you're talking about here, care to explain? Perhaps you misunderstood my post? by the way, how are you able to number all of people's posts in this thread? Is there an automated post tracking bot, because I can't find it. I just found it odd that you'd specifically tell him to look for clues that pointed at you rather than someone else. Like I said, I don't know if this means anything. You can find post numbers by looking at post histories, which I conveniently linked for you in my post above. Click the name. AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I've been tracking littlechava, you (crate), and zeks. I'll be posting later on my thoughts of each. Looking forward to it. --- Working on looking at Zyrre and MooCow now; I've noticed Deucegladlier's post and vote and I agree it's very strange. In particular, there's no benefit to the town if you're just going to post a one-line post each day and then vote for yourself or someone at random. There is some benefit if you're mafia, because it keeps you alive and that gives the mafia more KP and more time. --- LunarDestiny wrote: You see that"#" thing next to "quote." Click on it and look at the address bar above. Actually this has changed, it doesn't show which post number it is in the thread any more (though it used to work that way). | ||
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--- Zyrre: Posts since the game began: 9 (starting at 250) plus one vote Voting History: Day 1 vote for YellowInk at June 05 2010 00:03 (preceding post 407 by about an hour and a half) Notes: Says nothing game-related until halfway through Day 1 (post 407); suspect zeks and DCLXVI (post 542); a couple posts on clues (440, 673); some suspicion of Misder with note about Thegilaboy (684). Thoughts: Another pretty inactive player. I'm not a fan of waiting an hour and a half after you vote to explain it.... The posts between when he voted and when he explained his vote are significant, including several people proclaiming support of YellowInk (and you see that Zyrre begins a quick run of votes for YellowInk in the voting thread) and YellowInk calling out inactives in the thread. I really don't see a reason to wait for so long before you say why you voted. I think his posts about clues are solid, but like I said I'm bad at clues so I'm not going to put much weight into this. It's easy for mafia to post good fake clue analysis (see, again, Pyrry's game for a great example--SugiuraMidori was doing most of the clue analysis, and it seemed legit, but she was red) too though. (This isn't to suggest that looking at clues is mafia-like, just that it's an easy way to hide). His suspicion on DCL comes from clues (post 542); his suspicions of zeks and Misder come from posts (542, 684). However, Zyrre does not post why he thinks Misder is suspicious based on posting history.... I'd like to see more concrete arguments for his ideas. I see the potential for good reasoning but I don't see it being shown to the town. Possible connections: ??? --- MooCow: Posts since the game began: 34 (starting at 153) plus one vote Voting History: Day 1 vote for DarthThienAn at June 05 2010 06:08 (immediately preceding post 452) Notes: Begins with clue analysis (168-180); suspicious of candidates, support MTF (284, 401, 415, 475); mafia likely have one elected position (401, 415, 452, 475, etc.); new player with questions (various); notes LaXer and 3 Lions Night 1 posts (517); returns to clues on Day 2 (614-615); don't forget zeks (674); Thoughts: The obvious thing that stands out is his repeated emphasis that it's likely the mafia have at least one of the elected roles. If any of them chose to run, that's probably true, since a mafioso candidate getting no votes is basically unheard of and the unanimity of the election was quite striking. (It's possible that no mafia chose to run. It's unlikely there are no previous players on the mafia side (I suspect flamewheel/BC didn't pick roles entirely randomly) but a couple names that I could have seen running like MTF, LunarDestiny, and myself chose not to run ... so it's possible that no mafioso tried to get elected. This happened in Pyrry's game, for instance.) He echoes onihunter's thoughts at times on Day 1 (note that both are new players posting the same things). It's interesting that the only person he mentions he's confident in being town is MTF (unless I missed someone); he is suspicious of YellowInk, zeks, and Darth. His content-to-post-number ratio is definitely lower than I'd like. Note that unlike onihunter, he doesn't just go along with the town consensus (he's probably still suspicious of YellowInk and Darth). What I'd really like is more analysis from him. He calls out Darth and YellowInk basically on being elected, says he's suspicious of zeks but doesn't post a concise, coherent argument. He looks to me like he's more firmly town-aligned than onihunter because he's not afraid to post his general ideas, but he doesn't do much convincing. Possible connections: onihunter, MTF | ||
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Not only is his posting in this thread poor ... it's 100% worthless. The only reason he's posting is to avoid being modkilled. The only way he could be contributing to the town right now is if he's in PM contact with anyone here or if he's a medic or DT who's doing something. If he's been PM'ing with you, I'd like to know about it. Any way you stack it his play has been completely unhelpful and he cannot benefit the town even as just another vote if he doesn't even read enough to vote for someone other than himself. It's actually better for a townie to just accept being modkilled than it is to effectively abstain and never contribute whereas mafia do have an interest to stay alive even if they're not going to play (like I said before). I'm voting for him on this basis, but we should keep looking at people because we have more lynches in the future. (Or, who knows, maybe Deuce will show up and surprise us with some game-related posts). | ||
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On June 07 2010 09:50 pyr0ma5ta wrote: I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the clues, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player. I'm not defending being a useless player, but I still don't understand why we want to lynch inactives. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo. I'm still not clear on why we want to take a whack at a guy who's not even been implicated in any of the behavior analysis, which is the only solid thing we have to go on. There's legitimate reasons to stay under the radar early in the game as a blue/green player, but not legitimate reasons to play in a way that's 100% unhelpful (hence me asking anyone if he's done anything helpful, e.g. PM useful stuff). I'm attacking being a useless player playing in a way that is only ever sensible if you're mafia. We should take a crack at people for whom there is a relatively decent evidence trail, imo. | ||
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(Note that while MrBabyHands claims to have some clue analysis in TL Mafia 5 and does target the mafia, the actual analysis doesn't point to the right clues). Red herrings crop up naturally when writing the posts, though they're usually not deliberately added. decafchicken is the most famous victim here and hence the running joke. Historically TL mafia game clue analysis has been terribly ineffective. They're a great talking point and if you have other reasons to be suspicious you can then go look at clues and possibly get more suspicious ... but the fact that TL mafia games have been run without clues for a long time and the quality of the games has improved says something. In my experiences following the threads here they've been mostly clue-less and in Pyrry's game (which I played in) the clues didn't help at all. My stance on clues is just based on precedent. | ||
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I think with that I'll be off to bed for the night. Haven't thought much about double lynch myself, but I'll talk about it tomorrow. | ||
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I will be making substantial post(s) before I go to bed tonight and I probably won't be up much past 02:00 GMT (+00:00) tonight ... which is of course when the day ends. I'll stick around long enough to see the results if they're up quickly. | ||
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--- + Show Spoiler + On June 07 2010 13:47 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Might as well wrap up the discussion on this point, since I still have no idea what you're talking about. Here's my post you referenced (657) Perhaps you misunderstood the 2nd line? I'm just saying that he (gilga) defended himself by saying the clues could have pointed at other people including me, which is rather suspicious. Oh, shit, yeah, I misread that. --- On June 07 2010 23:43 zeks wrote: The question is which is more important for us right now: Getting rid of lurking mafia just to reduce KP or Getting rid of active mafia that's screwing around with the town and still reduce KP They're both equally good imo. Getting rid of mafia, full stop, is what matters here. --- On June 08 2010 08:09 BrownBear wrote: It would be interesting to have everyone who leaves their vote on Deuce explain why they left their vote on Deuce. If nothing else, it would be good at rooting out the guys who log on once to vote and post and are then gone for the rest of the day. I'm personally leaving my vote on Deuce because 1) If he's not red he's the most fucking useless player in TL mafia history and is actually playing worse than if he'd just done nothing and gotten modkilled. 2) If he's red then he might actually be making some sense. Once I mull over the rest of what I've read I will be back, but I need a break for a bit first. Keep looking for good targets; I'll comment on what I've seen when I get back. | ||
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Let's ignore clues for a second. Everyone who thought that ElyAs or barth would be medic protected, please raise your hand. I'm waiting. Oh, right, none of you did. How about how many of you thought they were worth killing through possible Veteran protection? MTF took the third hit guys. Maybe Flamewheel decided to toss the third mafioso into the clues anyway, maybe it's a red herring, maybe it's hinting at something like blink. The only ever reasonable explanation for MTF to lie about getting hit is if he's Godfather claiming Veteran and the mafia stacked hits. I don't buy that either. Go work through the logic yourself. --- Re: AFJ vs MooCow Yeah, MooCow claim's he's new. He certainly hasn't played in any past TL mafia game. Last game I was in, another new player game (Pyrry's game, which is why I reference it, because I remember what happened) I gave a lot of people too much credit. Personally I ignored his rule-check and newbie-claim posts entirely because I can't decide whether they should point me one way or the other. --- On June 08 2010 10:27 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Ok omnihunter here's something that I haven't mentioned about him yet: So he follows mafia threads but is still completely ignorant to rules and still posts like a retard? Uh, dude, did you read that thread? It was a daykill game, it was one with Chezinu, the people playing in the game thought it was a clusterfuck. I think MooCow chancing upon that mafia thread and opening it did him more harm than good. I think MooCow has a way to go to show he's pro-town and he hasn't improved since my post about him, true, but calling him on this is ridiculous. | ||
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On June 08 2010 10:50 DarthThienAn wrote: Nice random-ass beginning to that post crate. I am DarthThienAn, and I approve of this message. Yes that's what I was referencing with my one hour remark. | ||
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How many mafia threads do you think he went through to check rules? Hell, let's ask him: MooCow, how many mafia threads did you glance through and what did you look at there? Sure, I don't like him either 1) not reading the OP and asking questions that are pretty easy to answer or 2) trying to make people think he's a stupid newbie But in my experience those two are pretty equally likely in a game like this. Well, with LD switching we might find out in about three minutes I suppose. | ||
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On June 08 2010 10:59 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: holy shit when the night post comes up im either going to fist pump or plan to get myself modkilled! Quick question: How does getting yourself killed when you guess wrong ever help your team? Two cases. 1) You are town. You think player A is mafia, you guess wrong. If you now push to get yourself killed, you hurt the town. 2) You are mafia. You claim in the thread that player A is mafia, you guess wrong. If you now push to get yourself killed, you hurt the mafia. Don't pull this stunt, teks was gonna try it in Pyrry's game and I pointed out that this is just shitty play. | ||
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On June 08 2010 11:01 DarthThienAn wrote: no strategic modkills! lol. By the wording, it's not even a strategic modkill because it doesn't help AFJ's team. | ||
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I think ... there might be MAFIA in this game. | ||
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Well, it's my bedtime. Sorry my posting today was not up to my usual standards. Maybe I can wake up early and get a look at this thread in the morning. | ||
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On June 09 2010 04:41 MTF wrote: crate - Still posting well. I don't like the numerous "I'm still here, don't worry" kind of posts, but the others he makes are quality enough for me to dispel most doubt. Would it be better if I said nothing at all? Those posts are worthless game-wise, but making them forces me to post afterward or get called on it, and with how tired I've been at night if I didn't make posts like that believe me I wouldn't be posting. MTF wrote: Anybody saying that they have "a lot of reading to do" or "have to catch up", and then fail to post anything later. This is nothing more than filler people, and innocent or not, you shouldn't be doing it. See? When I say I'm going to catch up, I deliver. It may not end up at the quality I'd ideally want because of time constraints or me taking longer to make connections than more seasoned players, but I do what I say I will. --- zeks wrote: I haven't personally gone through many Mafia games myself so I wouldn't know, but I would assume there would be a mix of active and inactive - and I still maintain that getting rid of the active ones is more important. If you know a mafia, you kill that person. Period. Town's goal is first and foremost to reduce mafia KP. Facts: Inactive mafia aren't gonna get any more obviously suspicious (unless by clues). Active mafia are either going to start making actually productive posts or they're going to be making not-town-productive posts and then it's on the town to realize this. They have the same chance of clue links. This isn't to say I have a problem with you looking at and targeting MooCow. I didn't personally find him terribly suspicious, but I can see the argument for it and the onus was on him to step it up and he didn't. Looking at active posters is important ... but go list the actives for me, and then tell me how many of the mafia you think are in that list? It's not gonna be all six. (As an aside: The last time you played mafia, every single member was inactive or posting nothing of substance for basically the entire game. The only one who even looked active was SuguiraMidori, and that was almost all bogus clue analysis and activity lists. I do think that Pyrry's game was an unusual case however; hence this being an aside). --- About LunarDestiny: Darth wrote: Things that stick out to me: -Cries for medic protection. Possible mafia move to take medic protection away from other people – he emphasizes this more than he needs to which is why it sticks out (even doing a follow-up wondering why he wasn’t hit. An “innocent” act imo) He could be an inexplicably paranoid town-aligned player as opposed to just being a mafia if you want to explain this. I don't think it's a good move, agreed. The Darth -> Yellow switch is more significant (he may have been following the crowd on this one. Is he a sheep-herded townie, or is he a mafia trying to follow the bandwagon?). He doesn’t like Yellow, or his play style, but he votes for him because of Yellow’s “poor logic” which says that a poster as active as Yellow is probably not mafia. The one from last night is an interesting situation because he said so himself – whoever makes the killing switch is going to look really suspicious despite being “baller”. The Darth -> Yellow switch didn't mean fuck-all because it was clear that you two were getting elected and I'm not convinced it matters too much whether (assuming for a second that one of you is a mafioso) the red gets Mayor or Pardoner. Similarly, every vote switch from Deuce to MooCow doesn't really mean anything (he wasn't gonna die anyway) ... until you (Darth) switch and then suddenly it's a real possibility. This one definitely means more because it mattered. I haven't had a chance to look back through his posts myself so I don't have an opinion on LunarDestiny yet. He's certainly not up there with MTF in terms of making his posts count, I know that much. I'll glance over his posts myself and say something before bed (see that MTF? I'll be back!). LunarDestiny wrote: Again, I strongly against having a dt check on me since it might not prove anything (miller/godfather). Better solutions are to trust me or lynch me and get it done with. If you know that a DT rolechecked someone and the DT was told "mafia" (let's ignore how you heard and why you trust the claim here) ... what do you do? Is there anyone who's been so obviously town-aligned that you'd bank on them being miller instead of mafia in this case? I agree that if you were mafia you'd probably have been a good choice for godfather though, so I'm not sure rolechecking would help here. If someone did check you and get red I'd be for lynching you immediately, but I have my doubts that that'd happen even if you are mafia. Darth wrote: Or, if you were actually a townie, you would say "DON'T WASTE A LYNCH ON ME, FIND MAFIA." Right, because that'd be real convincing. Ace says this game isn't about what you know, it's about what you can convince others to believe. I see nothing wrong with LunarDestiny explaining his actions and your one-line comeback adds nothing. How about considering whether his reasoning makes sense instead? LunarDestiny wrote: Now keeping me alive without doing anything is like adding a dead weight to town. Damn right if you don't do anything you're dead weight. But what makes you think you've lost the town's trust? I wasn't aware that Darth was the entire town. You are way too fucking swingy man, stop letting your emotions play this game for you. --- Darth wrote: We have to vote to use the double lynch the day before. So we'd have to agree on a double lynch on day 3, and we would use the double lynch day 4. A long process, but one I think would be good at this point. We should be able to get some good clues tonight / some more leads on people, etc. Re: double lynch If we don't use them soon there's not going to be much of a chance to use them in the future.... --- BrownBear wrote: The fact that my name is on this list is irrelevant to me, as I'm fairly confident I can defend myself well, and I have played very pro-town so far. Not sure you've convinced me of that yet (though you'd probably be higher than the average player on my likely-to-be-town list). :p <- SEE THIS SMILEY? It means I'm not entirely serious. BrownBear wrote: [B]ut to be fair, we [town] got murdered in Mafia XXII because we placed too much faith in rolechecks, and we happened to rolecheck all the millers, then lynch them for being mafia. I'm not saying your argument is without merit, because what you're saying absolutely true. We just have to remember it swings both ways. Do some math on that one. I'm not sure the better team wins every game in mafia because there's some "luck" involved (medic protections, DT checks, millers, etc.). If I'd been in that game I'd have gone off of Ace's rolechecks too because it was the correct decision. Again, if a DT check that you know comes from a legit DT turns up red, do you really advocate not acting on it? | ||
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Observation 1: holy fuck he has lots of posts in this thread.... Since I can't recall and I really don't feel like digging through a couple hundred posts: LunarDestiny, have you played in a mafia game with clues before? Have you read through past mafia games with clues? This isn't really relevant much I suppose though I'm curious. --- I'm not sure I agree with his general thoughts on how mafia goes from my experience reading games here in TL, but regardless I don't think that LD realized early on that this game is not a game like the ones he'd played in before.... I don't think this is really a deliberate attempt to mislead the town. I do agree that inexperienced mafia are probably likely scared to put themselves in the spotlight and I'm fine with his vote on YellowInk, though it already foreshadows his very ... tempestuous, almost ... play in this game. He's posted a mix of stuff that I feel is very legit and stuff that I think is way out there. The fact that he's so obviously swinging around, committing himself ... I dunno, it's too obvious for me in a game like this. He's talking a lot in absolutes (and his clipped posting style accentuates this ... I get the feeling he's not a native English speaker from it). A couple quick examples: + Show Spoiler + Like I said before, mafia being Mayor is pretty much a GG. So I beg you guys to vote for Yellow Ink or change your vote to Yellow Ink. At this point, I am very certain that both Darth and YellowInk are pro town (darth with his pm to inactive and yellowink for his posting behavior). If Deuce is town, I want to apologies to LaXer and Pryo and will consider they 99.7% pro town. Will probably take a more passive role from now on as my decision making is crap right now. ... there's a lot more in Day 1 and Day 2, but I didn't want to compile them all for want of space. His day 2 vote is completely innocuous beside the vote-change from Darth. Darth's vote is a swing of six votes from Deuce to MooCow; LunarDestiny and Darth are essentially the only people who voted for MooCow when there was a legit chance for him to die. What really gets me here is that there are legitimate points to make about LunarDestiny; he's very swingy, his game advice is suspect + Show Spoiler + Mafia has a number of 6. So if they run for election. Their votes will be 6+others voting for them (who have no clue that they are voting for the mafia) which is HUGE. Assumes that all mafia will vote for their own candidate; MTF has brought up a couple times that this is emphatically not true http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=127781¤tpage=14#273 The medic protection bit; he misses that YellowInk covered that already I also want to suggest an alternative that might be very controversial. To lynch the pardoner on day2. This way, we eliminate the possibility that the mafia running for mayor but fail and get the pardoner role. This is just an alternative that we can use depending how the voting goes. The timing on this is bad and it's generally bad play to go out and actively waste a lynch to possibly prevent ... wasting a lynch? There's more, some of which stem from the fact LD's past games have a very different playerbase and no clues. But I think you get the idea here I think he's trying way too hard to force himself into the spotlight and stay there though to be mafia, and he seems to have at least screwed his head on enough to not give up on the game like he suggested. He's had some flawed logic at times but he hasn't tried to press it on anyone.... A couple good posts, for reference: + Show Spoiler + Additional suggestion when reading clues: You know in movies, the most obvious clues that point to someone are often false. We can apply some of it here and expect that some clues were put in to mislead us. What I want to say is we can't believe that every clues are helpful and the only way to certify a clue is the use of clue check. This matches up with my experiences, though it's odd that LD himself jumps at clues more than this post suggests he should. He's at least looking at voting patterns, as seen by the voting times thing on Day 2 and now the Gilaboy/Deuce/MooCow vote post above. If you use this logic on mafia then you will have a hard time finding the mafia: The town accuses someone of being mafia. That person does not respond therefore not mafia. If the mafia is reading the thread, sees that no response = not mafia ...? Think about that for a second. Lying about the medic protection is very dumb if he is the mafia because role check would expose him. There is the possibility that he is the Godfather who is somewhat immune to the rolecheck but I don't think Godfather would want to take that risk especially so early in the game. If he is Godfather, I will give him the "balls of steel" award. Etc. There's more, but I already closed most of the posts and I don't want to look again 2 minutes till day .... | ||
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Darth says he got a DT telling him oni is red, that's enough for me like I said last night, assuming we have reason to trust this DT. | ||
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--- @Darth (and now @littlechava too): Sure, if the mafia could just get up and choose they'd choose to lynch MooCow instead of Deuce, I'll buy that. Thing is, unless either LunarDestiny or yourself is mafia, none of the mafia would have even been considering that possibility. MooCow dying was never, ever going to happen until you [Darth] switched your vote. Your conclusion is right, there are almost assuredly mafia who voted for MooCow. But it's for the reason MTF keeps bringing up (spreading out votes is better), not for the reason you suggest. Unless, like I said, either you or LunarDestiny is mafia. --- @zeks, DCL: The wagon against Deuce was derailed by Darth. Don't mistake yourself that LunarDestiny put on the killing blow or that AFJ made the first argument and vote. Darth was a six-vote swing AND he's the mayor AND I gather he has the town's trust. Mentally remove Darth's vote-switch and go look at the voting history; there was no chance that MooCow was gonna die. And then suddenly with one swoop that at least I didn't see coming he's two votes away. And if you don't think that being elected means anything, I'll just point you to Pyrry's game where we had a half-dozen people roleclaim to Shikyo and JeeJee for no reason other than that they were elected. I gather it used to happen a lot back in the older TL games too (back when the non-new-player games had elected roles, rofl). --- @LunarDestiny: There is a total of one vote before Darth makes his announcement (which itself was ~ 7 hours after day began) ... we have absolutely no information from today's votes. Honestly the only explanation I could see for not voting for oni (assuming he's mafia like he claims) is if you're a townie who suspects Darth. If you're mafia and a figure the town trusts comes out and says "I have a roleclaim that player A (whom the town was suspicious of anyway) is mafia" ... do you really think any of the mafia are that stupid? --- @Ink: Not gonna do a full writeup, I'll just give my thoughts and a couple key reasons: BrownBear -I'd be pretty wary since I don't think I'd say he's posted anything of substance to date that others haven't said first. This is onihunter (and MooCow, for that matter, though without the "new player" bit) behavior except with what I feel is a more sketchy history (runs for office then fades out pretty hard except for a small portion of Day 2) and more words-per-post. littlechava -Not sure his clue analysis is worth anything ... he does some but doesn't seem to think that clues are the way to go. His "argument" with DCL was misunderstanding vs. misunderstanding as far as I could see; ... I really don't know. Misder -Starts off with clues, whatever, half the town did as much. Don't like the "no clue connections = don't lynch Deuce" thing. Don't like the activity patterns, though his posts do have substance. Him questioning Darth's source for oni = mafia likely hints toward town? I feel like the way he's thinking is good, but I really question his timing. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=5458482 Notes on this post specifically: If oni is not at least miller, we ask Darth for his source. If he does not provide, we lynch Darth tomorrow. If Darth does provide, we then have to determine whether Darth is red or his source is red (or whether we should just lynch them both tomorrow anyway). Thegilaboy -Flips on YellowInk with the rest of the town ... his play speaks volumes about being new but he's not flaunting it (which is good); not terribly much content but I like the things he's said when he's been the person coming up with the ideas instead of the one following everyone's directives. Definitely new, not the biggest asset for the town, but I think he's on our side. zeks -I notice his name doesn't have a capital "Z"; I feel like he's playing an awful lot like he did in Pyrry's game so I think he's town (even down to the exact same type of slip-ups). Most likely not a power role unless perhaps it's veteran. --- Also, I'm quite fine with pictures of hot chicks. Or are you just jealous that the girls are flocking to Darth and not you? :p --- @clues against me: If you guys put more stake in clues than in behavior, whatever, go vote me. Until I'm dead, I'll keep posting as I have been (time permitting). Personally the only profiles I've looked at have been the ones I've clicked to get to post histories, and I haven't even read any of the day posts except the parts in color (I guess I can thank Qatol for being a Godfather-claiming-townie-elected-mayor for those colors). But I've basically said as much before. If you think my posting has been suspect, ask me questions. Or go vote to lynch me or something, I guess. As an aside: the theme of my profile is just as much that Star Control 2 is fucking awesome (see sig, see picture) as it is about chance (and incidentally like I said earlier I didn't pick that quote because of the probability connections but because I see it as talking about arbitrary constructions that we find special for no real reason). I realize there's no reason for flamewheel to pull clues from the entirety of the profile though. | ||
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In addition, I don't agree with Darth about people who didn't switch after Darth not being suspicious. The mafia have to weigh the chance of looking terribly suspicious (switching) against eliminating a middle-of-the-road at best town-aligned player who's under heavy suspicion anyway and (in retrospect) likely would have drawn a vigi hit. | ||
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If you don't want to play, you just ... stop playing. Then you're done after 2 days. | ||
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If you're not gonna play though, it's best for the town if you just stop and take your modkill (and best for the mafia if you just meet the minimum requirements to not get modkilled) | ||
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-Rolecheck results (although remember, millers do exist, so rolecheck only has a 66% chance of netting us a mafia). I'm really curious about where this 66% comes from in a semi-open game. | ||
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And I could see anywhere from 0 to 3 millers. | ||
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A bit surprising to me that literally no one has PM'd me, but there it is. It's possible (though unlikely) that the bodyguard was found via a DT check, in which case I think the DT should step up and claim and let us know who he talked to. Otherwise it was LaXer digging his own grave by telling people who he was. Dumb move, but at least it gives us something to work with. Remaining player list, if we're looking for who called the shots last night: 2. Hugoboss21 3. Zyrre 5. LunarDestiny 6. Deucegladlier 9. bumatlarge 12. littlechava 14. zeks 17. DCLXVI 20. BrownBear 22. MTF 25. Misder 29. deconduo 30. sputnik.theory I've not been in contact with anyone, so we can cross me off. I'm pretty sure we can get rid of Deuce and Hugo for this one too. Likely also CompX, Misder, deconduo, and sputnik.theory, and Thegilaboy. Of the remaining players, Darth and MTF are definitely the most likely to have heard LaXer's role. LunarDestiny, BrownBear, and zeks wouldn't be out of the picture for me either. | ||
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Until we figure out what else to do I'm voting for them. | ||
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On June 13 2010 06:56 DarthThienAn wrote: crate why did you vote for deuce and hugo? I don't think inactivity is our priority right now... They're shitty players and they should die for it still. I'd be very suprised if at least one of our inactives isn't mafia still. Once we work out who sniped the bodyguard I can change my vote, but sitting here not voting isn't going to push anyone to action. | ||
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On June 13 2010 07:10 DarthThienAn wrote: But I'm sure there's a better target out there >_>. Why don't you go find one then? | ||
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Look at AFJ's posting on Day 1 (i.e. there wasn't much and it was bad) then look at it on Day 2. He stepped up bigtime. Yes, he had the wrong target, as we promptly learned when the day ended. But I conceded that AFJ's arguments had merit even though I didn't agree with his conclusion. The thing here is that AFJ had some nice thinking and, importantly, he got the town to listen to him. This makes him a dangerous player for the mafia regardless of role. Pyro certainly could have been leaked (but from the bit of his posting I saw I think he was too smart to tell anyone, so I'd suspect a DT checked him and then told a mafia in this case. But we can't prove this now anyway), but he equally well could have been chosen as an exceptionally safe target. What were the chances he was going to be protected Night 2? After just getting banned? Obviously the mafia did not hit YellowInk because of his role (vanilla townie). Obviously the mafia did hit LaXer because they knew his role 100%. But that's the only case where we know this for sure. Just noticed there's more posts coming up as I refreshed. Gonna go read those now. | ||
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Darth's DT in that case was almost certainly legit regardless, so let's take that for granted. If you're Darth as a townie, you clearly call out oni. If you're Darth as a mafia ... you probably still have to call it out because the DT is going to get the word out somehow and then I think after lynching oni the town lynches both the DT and Darth the next day. (There are other possibilities, but this one makes the most sense to me). I think this is too dangerous for Darth to risk, so yeah, I certainly wouldn't be convinced that he's in the clear because he outed onihunter. --- Unless bum turns up miller (not gonna consider that right now) -> I'll look at a couple possibilities: If Darth is red, clearly a fake DT is the same as no DT, so I'm not going to worry about fake DT here. 1) Darth is red, bum is not red, there is no DT: -> Bum is most likely not actually a miller; he flips non-red non-Miller and we ask Darth for a name for his DT and he makes one up. We then have to decide (like I already covered with oni) whether to lynch Darth, lynch Darth's DT, or both. 2) Darth is red, bum is red, there is no DT: -> Makes no sense. 3) bum is not red, there is a real DT (any alignment for Darth): -> Only makes sense if bum is miller 4) Darth is red, bum is red, there is a DT: -> This is a complicated scenario. I think Darth has to tell the town here, because if he doesn't then it's quite likely he'll get outed (DT tells someone else about the rolecheck) and both Darth and bum die. With only 4 mafia left I think it's very unlikely that we'd have all three of bum, Darth, and the DT actually be mafia and the DT "faking" a rolecheck and outing a buddy to get the town's trust. 5) Darth is not red, there is no DT (any alignment for bum) -> Makes no sense. 6) Darth is not red, bum is red, there is a DT: -> Obviously makes sense 7) Darth is not red, bum is not red, there is a fake DT: -> Only makes sense if the DT is red. From here we are at the same place as 1). I think this covers all the scenarios worth considering. 1) and 7) are very similar ... I'd think 4) or 6) is more likely though. --- I think the town should consider mass roleclaiming at this point. There are two obvious ways to do it ... either we mass roleclaim publicly, or we mass roleclaim to a chosen player or set of players through PM and then those players tell the town who we should be looking at for mafia. The benefit of the first way is that there are going to be no shenanigans except mafia lying about their roles, and if Darth is mafia I'd guess he knows a fair few roles already (he almost certainly knows at least 1 DT). The benefit of the second way is that we're not necessarily telling the mafia who our power roles are. The risk is obviously that we choose a mafia in our list of players to PM and then have some shenanigans going on and additionally don't have the benefit of private claims. If we private claim I'd suggest claiming to MTF, unless you believe he didn't actually soak up hits the first two nights. | ||
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I'm leaving my vote on hugo because people have connected him to clues. Other vote for now is going on bum because we have a claim that a DT rolechecked him to be red. | ||
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On June 13 2010 09:26 DarthThienAn wrote: If you want to mass roleclaim through PMs, do it to at least two people so that you have your back covered. Well, yeah. But I don't have a good second person to suggest. Claiming to you doesn't seem to be a good idea right now. MTF has pretty good evidence to support him being town-aligned though. | ||
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I'll have a writeup coming sometime soon. | ||
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Town played pretty mediocre, mafia played worse. The better side won. I shouldn't be too surprised given that this was a new player game, I guess. I think I still like being on the town side better. But it was interesting to be on the other side and I learned a good bit I hope. My plan this game was to play like I was town but make two changes: First, I would strategically disappear at certain times (I can pull this off because I don't really post on Teamliquid elsewhere). My tiredness and such was legit, but there were a lot of little posts that I didn't make because I wasn't town. Second, I left a lot of stuff out or uncommented on. I think it did okay. I had tells, but the town wasn't going to pick up on them the way it was playing. I think next game I'm not going to play the way I did this game or last game. --- I never officially took on the duty but I felt like I was in charge of all the hits except for the ones aimed at MTF (which, if you go read our forum, I was skeptical about). Night 1 my plan was to just snipe people who didn't look like they would be protected and cut down voting power. Night 2, I hit AFJ because he was thinking properly and (most importantly) getting the town to listen, and I had started to think he might have a power role to boot. Pyro was because he was also looking pretty smart and I was really hoping that the town wouldn't listen to him. That he was banned was the icing on the cake because it meant that no medic was ever going to protect him Had I stuck with my gut and not hit MTF (I thought from Day 1 he was Vet, and it turns out I was right) I'd have targeted Zyrre and then deconduo on nights 1/2. That would have been a much better result. Night 3 didn't matter when half of us were already outed. --- I thought Darth didn't do a particularly good job. He really flubbed up Day 2 voting imo by switching to MooCow; I was pretty close to outright accusing him in my posting afterward but I didn't want the town to actually listen. His attack on LunarDestiny was terrible and I'd have never for a second bought that he was "just trying to keep LD alive." (What really got me is that there were legit arguments for being against LD, but instead Darth picks ones that actually in my opinion reflect on him as much as on LD). However, had the rest of our team played as well as Darth, we'd have roflstomped the town (well, that and if we don't hit MTF). I'm not really going to judge my own play. My plan kind of tripped me up because the rest of my team was terrible and I wasn't anticipating that happening. Here's how bad our team was: + Show Spoiler + Did you post in the thread? You need to do both. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I voted in Day 3 so I'm pretty sure I'm not getting modkilled. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: You around? I saw littlechava saying you're gonna get modkilled, so I'd really appreciate it if you would make sure you've both posted in the main thread (have you done that?) and voted since the beginning of Day 3.... PM from me to 3 Lions about 40 minutes before he gets modkilled. x.x --- There are a couple big things I think the town should have been doing. Firstly, waiting so long to vote on every vote is generally not so great because it stifles discussion (or rather, it doesn't generate discussion like votes do). Of course, the counterpart to that is that you need the town to actually be smart enough to read arguments and such instead of just voting with the bandwagon. Along with that is the town calling for activity. Sure, go ahead, post that it's good--that's true. But you're not going to get activity by just calling for it in the thread. You have to do stuff to make it happen, which is accusations or FoS's or voting or directly asking questions of specific people. The amount of time the town spent doing nothing was terrible. Apparently the town DTs played well, so credit to them, but the most vocal posters were pretty much just bad. MTF had his clue-hacks on again (one of the many things I didn't mention is that the only good clue analysis I'd ever seen in TL mafia came from either Camlito or MTF) but he didn't really do anything else (granted, in this setup, he'd have gotten Darth and I long before we could have won if we tried to play on). LunarDestiny was all over the place, giving questionable advice, and generally would have been causing more confusion than anyone on our side except no one listened to him. I was expecting a lot more from BrownBear since he'd actually played before, but he says nothing of import on Day 1, disappears on Day 2, and then follows the bandwagon for the rest of the game. YellowInk was definitely bad on Day 1 (though he did look town because no one on our side would have had the balls to jump into the spotlight so obviously except maybe Darth), but he improved a lot afterward. He made some definitely questionable moves (his "fishing" with the double lynch suggestion on Day 2 especially -> I was pretty sure as mafia that we 100% did not want a double lynch on Day 3, and in retrospect I was right; looking for mafia by jumping on the people who make a pro-town move is generally not a good plan, but nothing came of it anyway) but I think that's just inexperience. Of course on our side there was 3 Lions who got himself modkilled, hugo who just barely didn't; and then oni and bum didn't do a good job of starting off with a pro-town impression (and bum pushed for a rolecheck on me at some point. I wasn't really paying attention to his posts much but I did notice that and did not like it -> it's definitely a good way to make the town more suspicious of me, and I think DCL caught this). So I can't criticize too much I suppose. You can go pick apart my play if you want. I don't think I'm good at Mafia on either side, but at least I think I know what I'm doing when I'm town. --- I don't really know who I'd pick for town MVP. MTF did well on clues but I already said what I think about clues. I was very impressed by Pyro's small volume of posting and had he been more active I think he'd have been good. The DTs did well with their checks certainly. Town LVP is Deucegladlier :p Mafia LVP is definitely 3 Lions. Darth did better than anyone else but perhaps me (I'm not going to judge overall how well I played). --- MTF: There was no fake DT. The DTs legitimately checked oni and bum, so Darth's hands were tied in both cases. My brother dared me to take a screenshot and post it at the end (I talk about the game outside of the forum; again, addicted). Three out of five isn't too bad. Here's the problem, MTF: You didn't try to convince anyone of any of that. Okay, great--you got us. That means nothing unless you can convince the town that you're right. And in your position, you should have been trying to drop the hammer on that whole list. --- Also, I was right about 0 millers being a possibility :p | ||
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I don't know what to make of MTF's analysis because, honestly, the way I read it is that it's all from clues first and then behavior second (though I suppose there's some behavior component in who he chooses to connect to clues ... but the thing is that's entirely not evident when he's posting). Okay, sure, this was a clue-based game and so clues are part of it, but clues really don't feel like mafia to me, especially since TL hasn't had a clue based game in a long time. | ||
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On June 14 2010 11:37 flamewheel wrote: I hope you guys appreciate how much time it took to put in all those damn pretty colours. Clue connections coming up soon. Write it up in emacs or something and macro the bbcode tags imo lol. | ||
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edit: I mean the only town-aligned player who even got the rest of the town to act on what he thought was AFJ, lol. | ||
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I like Mad Hatters though. | ||
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On June 14 2010 12:35 BrownBear wrote: I am slightly confused as to why mafia conceded. Here's how I see the rest of the game playing out: We have four days till we win if neither Darth nor myself get outed. Five if I die, and I think six if Darth does. MTF would have clue'd us both to death long before that even if we played perfectly I think. Darth probably cleared in the eyes of the town crate had absolutely no suspicion on him from what I can tell Both of these are (or should have been) wrong. Darth's hands were tied and any clear-thinking townie should have seen this. I was under suspicion from bum's blunder of suggesting I get rolechecked and possibly some people saw what I wasn't saying, I dunno. Plus, the sacrifice-half-your-team ploy would have been just so incredibly badass. Wasn't a ploy. We do it or we still lose oni + bum and in addition lose Darth. Darth should have argued for a better second lynch than hugo on the last day if we wanted to win. I couldn't do it because of how vehemently I was against Deuce on Day 2. I didn't expect the town to vote with me on that one, but then I should have expected that no one else would bother to pick a lynch target since the only time there was any actual voting controversy was Day 2. Thoughts on my play: ... Don't trust people who post a ton of great analysis. Example: crate. Dude appeared extremely town-aligned to me when I read over his posts, but only because they were long and substance-filled. I really have to read more carefully into people's voting habits and WHAT they are saying, and look a lot closer to try and catch contradictions. I didn't contradict myself (I think). Everything I said was what I'd have said from a town standpoint. My analysis was legit except maybe on onihunter. If you were looking for contradictions you'd have picked up a lot of townies before you picked up me; town has less reason to be paranoid about small slip-ups (my average time composing a post was probably twice as long this game as it was when I was town). edit: Actually I lied a little bit; I think I'd have been more aggressive as town. My tells were in when I was talking (extremely hard to catch unless you know my AIM/MSN or what other forums I visit, since I wasn't posting on TL during my fake absences and otherwise you can't tell my fake ones from actual legit ones) and in what I wasn't saying (which was very noticeable from my position, of course; it was perfectly catchable). | ||
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On June 14 2010 13:21 YellowInk wrote: And for the record, I was highly suspicious of crate-godfather. Any particular reason for this? | ||
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Hell that's like exactly what Bill Murray did last game he was mafia IIRC. | ||
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There are two reasons my posting volume dropped off. The first was I started my internship, which means 11 hours that I was at home now becomes 11 hours that I wasn't. This had nothing to do with my role, and would have happened just as surely had I been town. The second was that no one else was doing anything either, which yes I was content to let happen (but as town I'd have been voting earlier and pointing fingers a bit earlier). But there was a lot more actual thinking behind the later posts. Town was doing nothing. A lot. I'd rather have town going in a random direction than no direction. So why not direct them at the people you think are mafia? To me this kind of deception just favors the reds, especially if the town starts to accept it (because then mafia start doing it instead of trying to play straight-up). (edit for clarity: I mean in the metagaming sense here) edit: Though yeah, the way the rest of my team talked about me was not good for me. | ||
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If you weren't elected, sure, I'd buy it. But you had perfect protection, so...? | ||
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