TL Mafia XXVI
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The second post also makes no mention of mafia roleblockers.
Good morning gentlemen (and ladies?).
I've looked through the thread by now. I see lots of discussion of clues. That's cool. Keep that information in mind and look for themes and connections to later clues, because that's the only way you'd catch mafia off of the clues. There's history for this, go read up on any game with clues you like. I was in this game and we failed miserably on clues trying to get mafia (of course, when half of the clue discussion is coming from the mafia in that game, it's not too hard to see why).
I see three people have announced they're running for office. They're good people to keep an eye on, sure, but they're also willingly throwing themselves in the spotlight so they're under pressure.
What I don't see is much discussion of what we, the town, should be doing. The only serious heat right now is on YellowInk (and that from clues, so I'm not buying it). There's been almost no talk about any game strategy at all.
Some quick notes about blue roles:
Medic saves and veteran hits will be told to all involved parties (well, not whoever did the hitting, but they'll know the hit was blocked when the day post doesn't have the target dead). If you get medic protected, congratulations--you've just 100% confirmed for yourself that someone is town-aligned. Medic, if you protect someone, let them know it was you who saved them.
It's possible that a mafia could try to play the medic in this situation, but there are dangers for them: firstly, if it was a veteran night life instead of a medic save, the mafia claiming medic is immediately outed. Secondly, the person who was saved will get two PMs (assuming the actual medic does his job) from people claiming to have saved him. We then just lynch the people who PM'd the saved person. If we get the mafioso, great, we're done and the other guy is legit and confirmed. If we get the medic, tough luck, but we snag a red the next day.
If you take a hit, either from medic protection OR from being a veteran and living, speak up. The mafia knows they hit you anyway, so you're not giving them any information. Telling the town is good. Don't tell the town how you were protected, just say "I took a hit last night."
I'm not sure how we should capitalize on a medic save, because I've not thought about it much. I'll mull it over today, and you should think about it too. But to be honest medics are a really tough role to play and medic saves are pretty rare (the only one in Pyrry's game was after the result was essentially decided), so don't count on this situation arising. But we definitely want to be able to take advantage of it if it happens.
You may have noticed that I didn't mention Vigilante hits above (this is relevant to the medic discussion; it's theoretically possible for a medic to block a Vigi hit aimed at a mafioso). Vigis shouldn't be too trigger-happy, and I think it's in our (the town's) best interest to give them advice on whom and when to hit. This gives us the same information that voting does (though without the modkill penalty for abstaining), and lynches are the town's biggest asset. Making a vigi hit into a lynch is good if the town is active enough. If we go this route, medics should obviously not protect the vigi target, and this neatly prevents the chances of a medic blocking a vigi hit on a mafioso. It doesn't prevent a medic from blocking a mafia hit on a mafioso, but generally speaking mafia aiming at themselves is a good thing for the town because some of those hits are going to land and the town will celebrate the red bodies
There's other stuff to discuss too (and more roles I haven't talked about. I'll give some input later on if needed, but this has taken me long enough to write for now so I'm cutting off here). The election would be great, but the candidates need to say more.
I don't believe for a second that the ink death is a clue pointing at YellowInk because it's too obvious like our resident clue expert MTF said.
I saw my name on a possible-linked-to-clues list. The quote of issue is from Feynman and I like it because we attach special significance to certain arbitrary sequences of letters and numbers (like 5000, for instance. Why is 5000 more notable than, say, 5023? It isn't, really) and the quote encapsulates that quite nicely (as well as talking about probability like Darth mentioned). That said, license plates definitely belong on cars, but there were car clues in Pyrry's game, which I was in, and I was a medic there. When/if I start acting like a mafioso then you should push for my lynch.
This post is enough of a clusterfuck already, so I think I'll cut off here. I want to hear more from all the mayor candidates, especially zeks who announced his candidacy then zonked out for the night.
He [crate] later mentions offhand that a medic could block a hit on a mafia, but doesn't clarify that this flaws his original argument.
No, I covered that. There are two groups with kill power: vigilantes, and mafia.
If the medic blocks a vigi hit on a mafia, either the vigi fucked up or the medic did (read my discussion on vigis). This should not happen.
If the medic blocks a mafia hit on another mafioso ... yeah, ok, that works but look at the risk/reward involved. The risk is the mafia hit might not get blocked in which case the mafia sacrifice a mafia member for nothing, and this risk is huge. If we assume that the medics protect at random and we assume 3 medics then it's still more than a 90% chance that the targeted mafia dies.
The mafia have no way of knowing whom the medics are going to protect. Are you seriously suggesting that it's in the mafia's best interests to aim at one of their own on the off-chance that it nets them a medic protection? I'm not even sure it's good for the mafia to target one of their own even if the hit gets blocked; they're still giving up one kill, after all, in exchange for getting a medic to think the targeted mafioso is town-aligned.
There is basically no chance that a medic will block a hit on a mafia unless the town's vigis play very badly. In addition, vigis cannot hit on night 1.
Also any game where decafchicken played and wasn't mafia
If there are clues pointing to you, they are not that obvious.
In addition, it's common to not have every mafioso in every day post (such as in the two games I just mentioned).
The only way that having roleblockers would affect our strategy is if the mafia figure out one or more blue roles and consistently block them; all this means is that the blues have to not out their roles to the mafia, but that's the normal plan anyway.
I've been reading and I'll have comments before I go to sleep tonight for sure. Nice to see some more actual discussion since my post this morning.
Darth has a very large word-count-to-post-number ratio, but half of that is that he quotes entirely too much text when he only needs a sentence or two to provide better context :p
His plan for a day 1 lynch looks good (lynching inactives serves to force all players to be active, which benefits the town, and furthermore it's a metagaming play by discouraging lurking in future games which eventually leads to either lots of town victories or better play from at least the mafia side), but I think I'd be more in favor of zeks's method because we get information from a vote count.
He's been talking about strategy somewhat, but mostly
Brownbear, alright, so he's trying to get pardoner. I've not decided which office position mafia would like to have more ... pardoner is more obviously powerful in a way because it wastes a lynch, but the sheer fact that it's more obvious makes it less desirable. Upping mafia vote power to 8 instead of 6 can be a big deal too, so mayor is pretty good in that respect. Denying the town the protection and gaining the immunity to rolechecks that goes with either role is obviously huge. But anyway, I'm not trying to discuss that here; I'm posting impressions of the candidates, so I'll return to that.
His plan for what to do as pardoner is, well, pretty obvious (kill mafia, save good guys!). It sounds good, but it sounds like politician-speak so I don't think it means much. Most of his activity is either his campaign post or his recent discussion with YellowInk. Certainly this is more activity than the average player who's said, well, mostly nothing of substance--having an inactive elected role is wasting the position of invincibility.
YellowInk has put more words in the thread than probably anyone else. Much of it has been jumping on mistakes and claiming that he's clean and can be confirmed, a good deal of the rest has been poking holes in plans. I don't recall him saying what he'd do with his mayor lynch if he wins, but I could have missed it in my skimming the thread again in his sheer number of posts.
Right now no one has really convinced me in this election, but I'd be voting for Darth or zeks over Brownbear or Inky. I like zeks's vote-for-lynch idea. I don't have a solid scum read on anyone right now, so let's look at inactives so far. As of MTF's post:
had not posted. Since, AFJ and supernova have posted saying they'll post later.
If we return to bum's compiled clue link list, we have the following people:
I see LaXerCannon on both of those lists, so I Vote: Lynch LaXerCannon if the elected decides to go by majority vote.
I'll vote for mayor in the morning, since I'm going to bed soon. Let's see some names from the mayor candidates: who would you be lynching if you win? If you decide, like zeks, to go with a majority vote, who are you voting for yourself? Names and reasons, I want more information.
Even you Brownbear. Humor me for a moment even though you're not trying to win. Let's say some freak accident occurs and you do; answer both questions please.
@MTF, zeks: I'm not running because I didn't feel like it ... same reason I didn't run in the last game I was in. Thanks for your support though. Heck, MTF, had you run I'd likely have voted for you, so I think we're in the same boat.
Also, if you notice, my username has no capital letters in it. This is a bit of a personal pet peeve, because it just looks horrible to see that capital "C" dragging my whole name down to the left side. It's so lopsided.
Dude, who manages their quoting. lol. I just quote crap and respond to it. I spoiler the big stuff when I remember to.
I do, lol. It's much easier to follow arguments this way imo.
Alright, onto points actually relevant to the game:
1) The fact that BB goes for pardoner, a great position for mafia and also a position more "under the radar" is suspicious to me.
If you'll read what I said earlier, I'm not sure pardoner is better for mafia anyway. It gets them out of a single lynch for free, then they immediately lose the pardoner the next day; Mayor pretty much buys the mafia an entire day as well (by giving them +2 vote power) but does it much less obviously.
The biggest benefit of either position is that the owner is un-rolecheckable and un-night-killable really. I don't know if mafia really cares which position they win as long as they win one of them. Assuming they're running (seeing as there were no mafia candidates in Pyrry's game which was a pretty similar setup, it's certainly possible no mafia are running).
Then again, it seems the consensus (at least from Darth and MTF) is that pardoner is more powerful for the mafia. Of course, mayor is more powerful for the town. . . .
The reason for doing it this way is because someone who is completely inactive will be modkilled. If I use my lynch on someone who is probably going to get modkilled anyway, this is a wasted lynch.
I agree with this. I'm going to cite precedent and reasoning here: someone who is mafia is far, far less likely to sit around and get modkilled than a town-aligned person. I think the only time I've seen a mafioso get modkilled is when Zona did in PYP mafia (which the mafia had all but won until he vanished and gave the town a free kill), but I've seen lots of vanilla townies get bored or something and get lightning'd.
That said, it's too early to say for sure who's gonna get modkilled since we still have about 10 hours before the end of Day 1.
the reason why another of our policies is Lynch all Liars.
I see this one in particular as a metagaming policy. In the short term (as in, this game) I'm not convinced it's actually the best way for us to win (lots of townies slip up and "lie", especially newer or inexperienced players. See zeks for a good example; I'm convinced his mistakes are just honest mistakes, because it's the same sort of stuff he did in Pyrry's game). If it's known that lying gets you killed, though, it's harder for mafia to hide.
Well, I said I'd vote this morning, and I guess it's time to follow through on that.
I guess I'm going with Darth in my vote, which I'll go post immediately after I submit this. My thoughts haven't really changed too much from last night. YellowInk's spotlight argument really applies every bit as much to Darth as it does to himself (they are the two most voluminous posters in the thread, after all, though it's clear Ink is more aggressive), and he seems levelheaded and he has some experience.
None of the candidates are really giving me a scum read right now. zeks is playing much like he did in Pyrry's game where I was convinced he was a blue because he advocated a play that only made sense if he was a blue (or Godfather claiming blue, but that's very dangerous in a fully-open setup) ... he turned out to be town though. Hopefully no one will flip out and vig him too soon this game :p
Darth and, yes, YellowInk have been constructively posting and are thrusting themselves in the spotlight. I've agreed with Darth's analysis a bit more, but they've both been a plus to the town thus far for sure. I think YellowInk had focused too much on mostly irrelevant details (the clue check, the actual numbers of zeks's DT suggestion) but nitpicking isn't necessarily a mafia trait ... I'm just hoping he doesn't get the town too caught up in it at the expense of more important discussions.
Brownbear is saying good stuff, but much of that saying good stuff comes after other people have already called attention to it. It's easy to follow others' good ideas regardless of which side you're on ... I'd be more wary of BB than the other candidates right now personally, but if he keeps posting we'll be able to get a better read on him.
Something we should watch with all the active posters (including people who make one or two quality posts a day, like MTF) is for their activity to drop. Getting in the town's good graces early on then shutting up and not having anyone notice ... dangerous for the town to potentially let a mafioso do this.
I have to say the candidates this time around are much more solid than the candidates in Pyrry's game, where the best candidate was posting like the worst one in this race. This is a nice turn of events. Hopefully the elected roles don't lead us to a horrific slaughter like the last time I played.
Any more thoughts on who you're lynching, Darth?
Unfortunate that jiabung was town, but at least he didn't have a special role.
It only holds any weight if you threaten to lynch inactives and then follow through. However, in doing so, you're costing the town in this game. Mafia can continue to do the bare minimum pretty easily and have much more incentive to do so than town does, so I think that if the town is lucky we'll get one mafioso dead from not posting enough to meet the requirements, tops. We'll have more material on the less-active mafia this way, sure--they'll be posting at least twice a day instead of once, and it'll have some substance--but we won't have the lynches to punish them for it because I will guarantee not every town-aligned player is going to post enough (not in this game, at least. Perhaps in a game where we're pretty sure that everyone will be active), so we'll have to drop the hammer on those townies.
If you don't lynch people who don't post enough, then this makes some townies and the mafia post more actively on day 2, then they realize there's no teeth to the threat and they can stop and likely some of them will.
As a metagaming play, I think it's okay. Keep doing it, and eventually it'll pay off because there will be activity from everyone (the assumption here is that people who sign up know that this is the standard etc.). I don't think it'll help the town in this individual game though.
I'll go random up some numbers if you want me to look at some people tonight/on day 2.
I'll catch up later on the rest, but I wanted to offer my thoughts on this now.
I read it as being offered more as an ultimatum, which is where the metagaming comes in and where it most likely hurts the town this game.
I'm not going to be focusing on the game from here till the day post though so I'll wait till then.
Do note, guys, that when someone dies we should look through their posting history. That's not to say that the mafia always kill people just because of what they say in the thread ... but you can glean some useful stuff from looking at this.
Here's hoping we don't lose any DTs, medics, or particularly active people. Might be a bit much to hope for if you do the math, but I'll hope anyway
The night kills were as good as we could hope for. Only two deaths is good news.
I'm really tired, but I think you guys can get along till I wake up tomorrow and have time to really catch up. See you then.
So, like I said last night, I was planning on following YellowInk's plan to look at about four people. I've chosen onihunter from the thread--I wanted someone with some decent activity to look at but not one of the most visible people (so not any of the mayor candidates, LunarDestiny, MTF, and obviously not myself) and onihunter fits the bill--and randomed the other three.
Random.org gave me 13, 8, and 3 (well actually I got icysoul's number 15, but he hasn't said anything nor voted so I picked a replacement since he's likely to be modkilled and there's no point analyzing him if he's just going to die).
So today I'll be looking at onihunter, AcrossFiveJulys, MooCow, and Zyrre. My next post will cover onihunter and AFJ, and then I'll get to MooCow and Zyrre later on. Figured I'd annouce my intentions right now though.
Posts since the game began: 30 (starts with post 196). About a half-dozen of those can be disregarded as meaningless to the game (going to bed etc.) plus one vote
Voting history: Day 1 vote for DarthThienAn at June 05 2010 01:39, following post 406.
Suspicious of YellowInk at the start (posts 196 through 226); not-as-suspicious on the second half of Dat 1 (post 290, 355); supports Darth from post 290; math about mafia hits (posts 585, 587)
Much of onihunter's posting is going as the rest of the town goes. Early on, YellowInk is under suspicion from, among others, zeks, MTF, and MooCow and onihunter agrees with this. Roughly when MTF posts that he thinks YellowInk is town-aligned (around post 229), I see the town's perception shift to the same thing and it's here that you see onihunter start being less suspicious. The only post onihunter makes in this immediate timeframe (from post 227 to post 290) is one saying he'd read the thread, which is meaningless.
He also votes for Darth in a very active voting timeframe in the middle third-ish part of Day 1. There's a short run of votes for YellowInk, followed immediately by a short run of votes for Darth (start here and go until Brownbear changes his vote).
The fact that the town has been so single-minded so far makes it really hard to get a read on someone who's following the pack. He's been active and that's a big point in his favor, but I think we should keep an eye on him once we start having to make tougher decisions (like today's lynch).
Possibly connected to: DarthThienAn? Hard to say.
Posts since the game began: 5 (starts with post 314) plus one vote
Voting History: Day 1 voted for DarthTheinAn at June 04 2010 20:59 (after post 314 and before post 442)
Post 314 is worthless. AFJ therefore is voting before he's said anything in the main thread; Called out for inactivity and responds (post 599); says Darth + YellowInk is likely pro-town (442); claims to be much more active on Day 2 (post 599); responds to Thegilaboy's accusation (post 657).
I don't like voting without reasoning and especially voting before you've said anything. He's played mafia before and calls Day 1 unimportant but in a previous game he played (here, he says this:
Just for the record, I had a feeling that bill murray was red since the first day as evidenced by my first few posts and vote
Which really doesn't match up with
I don't like to participate and throw accusations out a lot in day 1 of a mafia game because there isn't a lot of evidence to go byand it just serves to confuse.
in post 599. (I was reading over that previous game as it happened and I thought there was plenty of information on Day 1 in it myself).
I also think it's odd that AcrossFiveJulys tells Thegilaboy to look for clues pointing at AFJ in the Day 2 post (in post 657). I'm not sure what, if anything, to make of this.
Furthermore he claims that he's been tracking certain people's behavior (post 599) without posting any thoughts on whom or why. I definitely want to see what AFJ has to say today and I'm interested in whom he was watching.
I'm noting that it's been Day 2 for some time now so if AFJ is going to deliver it's high time he does so. I'm not real happy with his behavior so far and I'm definitely suspicious of him now that I've read over his posts more carefully. His inactivity contributes here as well.
Possibly connected to: DarthThienAn, Thegilaboy
Note that my choice of the color red has no real importance. I wanted some way to emphasize that wasn't bold (taken by my headings) and was more obvious and readable than italics.
Like I mentioned earlier, MooCow and Zyrre will be examined later on, hopefully before I go to bed tonight.
I'm holding off on voting until either someone presents a compelling argument for a target or till I look at MooCow and Zyrre.
On June 07 2010 03:08 YellowInk wrote:
Whoever you are, be sure to claim at least to him since you know he's town (the vigs couldn't hit on night 1).
I'm not sure what you're suggesting here.