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TL Mafia XXVI - Page 7

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 09 2010 16:20 GMT
#1142
All this being said, we should continue with discussions of the clues we have and player analysis. This doesn't mean a freebie day to not be active. ^.~

Is there anyone besides 3L that this clue set can be tied to? I agree it looks really bad for 3L and I would probably lynch based on this, I just want to be sure all our ducks are in line. Also, what killed pyr0? Anyone have any ideas? My first thought is a jellyfish (hah).
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 09 2010 20:45 GMT
#1149
Hugoboss21, 3 Lions: You two are both inactive and under intense suspicion. If you stay in the game (eg not get modkilled as you both took a warning yesterday), I highly recommend you do a LOT of talking that we might be convinced you are not red.

Obviously you can't defend against the clues directly. Instead you could see where else the clues point to and make cases. Furthermore, talk about who you think is suspicious, who you think is town. Any info you might have you need to give up and not take it to the grave (at least tomorrow before hanging). In these ways you will provide evidence that you are town.

If you fail to do this, I believe you will be hung regardless of what I have to say about it. If you get hung anyway, we will at least have your thoughts and any info you might have had that we can give it credit because you were hung as town.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 00:10 GMT
#1157
Well since it is clear that onihunter isn't even presenting a defense, lets get back to discussion of who else we suspect. Still want to hear people analyzing others, clue digging, etc etc.

Too bad it's strict day/night schedule for you, onihunter - can't drive a bandwagon into making it a short day.

With respect to my commentary on onihunter's playing and what it might reveal that he is red, honestly not all that much. He remained mostly neutral with respect to most people - leaning only slightly this way or that. One could argue his 'hardon' for crate makes him more likely to be red, but it was still just day1 stuff. I think the best thing we can pull from it is that it's likely that LaXerCannon is town since onihunter named him as a best target for lynch. Most else he said was just 'oh I lean a bit this way or that' on someone which he could easily backpedal out of without effort and without starting any real attacks on anyone.

YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 01:34 GMT
#1166
On June 10 2010 10:28 LunarDestiny wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2010 10:25 crate wrote:
When the vote is unanimous? Good luck getting anything out of the votecount other than figuring out who was awake when Darth posted.

Not saying that those who voted late are mafia. Just want to point out that mafia members are not likely to vote on their member if a solid bandwagon hasn't been formed.


Nah, there's really not much to be gleaned because the bandwagon was initiated by an accusal backed by someone regarded heavily pro town claiming a decent source had night information. This means that even if the source was found to be false, we hit a scum in the end anyhow.

The only reason to have any suspect of it at all is if 3L is mafia and the mafia are trying to derail (largely pre-emptively) a bandwagon on 3L in hopes that the 3L case can be defended more effectively tomorrow. In this case perhaps onihunter could be town and some unknown mafia is sacrificing themselves (and expects also to defend themselves tomorrow against DTA's accusation).

Except onihunter has roleclaimed mafia so all this conspiracy theory can just be tossed out. Nothing to see here. Nothing to be gained from voting recs.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 02:19 GMT
#1170
On June 10 2010 11:11 onihunter wrote:
or on gift cards, know what I mean? eh wut wut

the awesome rolly gooey feeling when you roll them into a tiny ball

just the right amnt of stickiness, not enough to be like an eww but enough to be like a "hey this feels nice"

Only scum like you would have such a perverted mind. ^.~
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 02:29 GMT
#1173
On June 10 2010 11:25 bumatlarge wrote:
Show nested quote +
On June 10 2010 11:19 YellowInk wrote:
On June 10 2010 11:11 onihunter wrote:
or on gift cards, know what I mean? eh wut wut

the awesome rolly gooey feeling when you roll them into a tiny ball

just the right amnt of stickiness, not enough to be like an eww but enough to be like a "hey this feels nice"

Only scum like you would have such a perverted mind. ^.~


Or maybe a really sick mind would make that kind of connection, which leads me to believe YOU'RE REALLY THE
+ Show Spoiler +
perverted one


No you.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 02:40 GMT
#1178
@onihunter

Stop trying to distract us from our extremely fruitful and well focused discussions that are rooting out the other mafia! There is scum and villainy at work here!
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 03:06 GMT
#1181
Pay no mind to onihunter.

I would like to hear what people have to say about this list of suspicious people:

BrownBear
Littlechava
Misder
TheGilaboy
Zeks

Please do your analysis for today focused on these people.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 03:35 GMT
#1184
Sorry bum, I agree with crate that MTF just got a bulletproof role. That or he's got some medic that really loves him and mafia that really hate him. Or this is all made up to get us tricked since mafia seem to be doing fine with two kills a night and MTF will solidly be in our endgame. Hard to say.

But honestly, does anyone else really suspect MTF? If not, I'd rather focus on the five candidates that I posted because I havn't been hearing too much of people's opinions about them lately. This is excepting TheGilaboy - which I am curious what people think of him in light of recent events.

YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 04:02 GMT
#1189
Idk, I think it's a lot more likely Zyrre is mafia because oni voted for him.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 04:04 GMT
#1190
Still hoping to hear some thoughts on my fab five before I head off to bed this evening.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 05:08 GMT
#1194
Hugoboss21, all this voting and not posting in thread is going to get you lynched. It's been a half hour now. You and 3 Lions both owe us a lot of material if you intend to not get hung tomorrow.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 18:59 GMT
#1205
Less hot chix more analysis please! Still have a lot of people to hear from before the day closes.

That is, unless you're ok with the mafia derailing another Deucegladlier or TheGilaboy bandwagon...
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:01 GMT
#1207
I see 3 Lions put in his vote 20 minutes ago. I hope he's writing up a monster of a post if he's really pro town. If he's mafia, I guess he could just post ala onihunter. :D
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:01 GMT
#1208
On June 11 2010 04:01 zeks wrote:
^ dont get what that is supposed to mean? You still think deuce is mafia?


Idk, that bandwagon was pretty suspiciously derailed. What has you so convinced he's green?
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:13 GMT
#1212
While it was a townie who started the bandwagon 100% confirmed, and a likely townie who finished it (LD), early on most people were basically forced to get on the Deuce wagon for lack of a better target. Some mafia might have just gone with TheGilaboy and some mafia could have jumped ship to the MooCow vote. While I don't think the MooCow vote was started (obv) nor finished by mafia, I believe the mafia may have had an interest in making it possible.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:28 GMT
#1215
I agree with you that there's probably a couple mafia on the Deuce vote. Smart mafia can't block vote. They would have taken a ton of heat to be the last one to switch over. Consider instead some of the last: DTA made it truly possible, but regardless of whether DTA is town or mafia, no mafia could switch over to MooCow after DTA switched. So if you assume DTA to be town (I still do, no worries), I'd say any number of mafia could live among:
DCLXVI
Misder
BrownBear
zeks
sputnik.theory
onihunter

For that matter, maybe the mafia were just hanging out over with TheGilaboy. Hard to say. What I do know is that among the people who stuck on Deuce the whole time, I'm pretty confident in most of them being town. It raises eyebrows when the folk you're less sure about are the ones all piled up on the other side of the vote.

I don't really know what's going on here. I'm putting a call out to see if other people are seeing the same things I'm seeing. It could help narrow down who is with us and who isn't.

Some of the mafia had to stay off of MooCow, though. It could be as few as 2 I'd say though without arousing too much suspicion. Even if we assume DTA to the good, that means we still don't have very reliable info to put out votes on - 3 targets remaining out of 5.

However, between this idea and clues, maybe folk would be willing to give it a much closer look. Posting patterns help too. We need more people to talk and this day has been horribly short on conversation. We cannot be lax because we have a good kill today.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 19:52 GMT
#1217
On June 11 2010 04:41 zeks wrote:
Don't understand how you can be confident on the people who stuck on Deuce the whole time. If the whole night went by the book (AFJ w/o his epic post) 80% would've voted on deuce thus there would have to be mafia in the deuce list.

I just want to note I never switched, my first vote was cast on MooCow not that it matters to most of you but I understand your suspicion YI (besides I've been suspicious to most of you since the beginning, don't know why though I think you guys should read over all my posts).

As much as the voters near the middle on MooCow should be suspected, the ones on deuce should be too - so many of them are inactive/useless. Plus I always thought you were in support of lynching inactives first

I think you misunderstand. I'm not confident of them because they stayed on Deuce but rather because of previous/current analysis. So the whole situation reeks when the people I am tending to trust are the people who stayed on Deuce while the people who I tend to not trust tended to be the people who were voting elsewhere.

I am in support of lynching inactives first, but when a situation stinks to high heaven... our priorities are in lynching the mafia. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to lynch random people on the MooCow or TGb list. I want people to figure out what's going on here because something stinks and I showered this morning.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 20:21 GMT
#1220
You never rule anyone out as mafia unless their role somehow gives them the ability to out themselves. Instead, you just make guesses as to the odds a given player is mafia. How convoluted is the path that makes MTF mafia? Pretty bad. Wouldn't the mafia have had better odds of winning if they hadn't wasted kills trying to set MTF up? Of course you can play the game of, "Well that's what they were expecting! So because of that, it makes this plan good!" but each time you do that it just gets less likely.

In the end you have to vote for someone. If it were down to 3 players and I had to pick between MTF or Deuce being green, I'd go with MTF and lynch Deuce every time and win the vast majority.
YellowInk
Profile Joined April 2010
United States578 Posts
June 10 2010 21:09 GMT
#1224
So I really havn't gotten much response to my earlier query. What do people think of:

BrownBear
Littlechava
Misder
TheGilaboy
Zeks

Our last five mafia? All town?
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