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On June 06 2010 02:20 LunarDestiny wrote:stuff about TL posts vs mafia posts + Show Spoiler +It is really hard to analyze people who haven't posted a lot. They maybe be mafia so they are less inactive or they just don't care much about the game.
A huge difference between this and other mafia games is there are more new players and less veteran players. So the categories for "I don't care about mafia war and so I would be active" is much higher than in other mafia games.
I use a somewhat weak checking method to see if they are really inactive or a mafia who is inactive because they don't want to draw attention.
My method is to look at how many posts they made the last week and compare it to number of post and quality of post they made in this game. If the number of post they made last week hugely out number the number of post they made in this game, then there is a possibility that they are mafia and tries not draw attention.
One drawback of this rule is there are people who post a lot (a huge number for the post they made last week) but just don't care about this game.
AcrossFiveJuly fits the description of I post a lot but not on this thread.
post last week: 33
post in the game: 3
Then there are numerous inactives who just doesn't post on TL at all therefore making them less likely be to mafia.
I like the idea you have here. Definitely wouldn't take it as gospel, but it's probably worth as much as any clue we havn't confirmed. Keep digging. 
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On June 06 2010 02:24 Zyrre wrote:
Another thing to consider is that when we do get mafia kills, the EARLY suspicions will basically always be confirmed townies. Later suspicions could just as well be mafias trying to get credit as townies by jumping on the bandwagon.
I would be wary of this. I think it really depends more on the situation in which they are posting rather than whether it was an early game suspicion vs a late game suspicion. Mafia by their very nature will have to tend to cast doubt more on townies than on their own in order to sway public opinion, but it doesn't require that it must happen earlier vs later in the game.
It is this sort of reasoning that led me to point DTA to jiabung rather than TyranoS, for example. The suspicion that was cast out in the early game costed those players nothing, so if they were mafia they could help deflect suspicion towards Tyranos rather than jiabung. It's really only a small margin of improved odds, though.
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On June 06 2010 02:29 Ace wrote:I'm guessing since I'm not playing it would be wrong to give Detectives advice right? 
Hey detectives, do your homework. Go read games where Ace was a detective.
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On June 06 2010 02:32 LunarDestiny wrote:
I don't think the idea of analyze requirement per 24 hours is good idea. They about who will follow this requirement.
1)pro town who cares about the game. They can satisfy the requirement easily.
2)mafia who cares about the game. Also should have no problem satisfying the requirement.
3)mafia who does not care about the game. They may force themselves to meet the requirement because others will be pressuring them and mafia tends to care more about the game than pro town who gets a shiity role (vanilla townie).
4)Then there is the pro town who does not care about the game. They won't bother catching up with the thread and won't bother to meet the requirement of in depth analysis. (jiabung who we lynches falls in this category.)
First let me clarify for you that it's not per 24 hours, it's per day. (this was clear since there was even discussion about this among several of us already)
You need to think the policy through to its logical conclusion. Suppose for the sake of argument we allow the people in class 4 to continue playing. Suppose instead in the early game we choose to lynch people because they appear to be the most suspicious - even though we don't have that much info on them. In these sorts of situations, especially among players who are less experienced, people who talk more bring more heat on themselves - whether through perhaps errors or flaws in logic (I think a few people I came after on day 1 can attest to this) or because they're supposedly too hotheaded (I don't know anyone who lands in this category this game, but hey, it could happen). The mafia would have a very simple strategy to win: shut up. Townies have lost games because they have gone rabid on each other (especially so in the mid game) because the mafia just fall silent or just parrot others' thoughts and no one noticed.
We cannot allow this to pass. If people are townie and inactive because they don't care about the game, they suck. They're ruining the game for the rest of us. It's actually far worse for the game if a mafia is inactive because mafia losing 1 imbalances the game FAR more than town losing 1. That's why there's a modkill & ban policy in place for those who are completely inactive. For those who are mostly inactive, they may be trying to skate by to avoid the ban. These people also suck. There's no way to really enforce a fair out of game policy on these people. Because of this we have to account for it in game. Hence the policy.
If you care about the game, you'll be active. It really doesn't take that much time to meet the policy requirements I've put up. This is a new player game, so we will have more inactives than a typical game around here might. It's just something we'll have to deal with, but we can't allow mafia the option of the 'shut up' strategy. It's way too easy for them to win like that.
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On June 06 2010 03:10 sputnik.theory wrote:
I've noticed that a quite a few players (including me) have been called out for not posting too much on day1 and in our defence, I'd just like to point out that there's only so much that can be said at the start of the game. I'll be posting more as the game develops and there's actually things to talk about.
Idk sputnik, I've had an awful lot to say. I believe all of it to be reasonable and worth having said. I think most people would agree that most of the things I say are good and beneficial to the town.
If I can come up with this much, anyone should be able to come up with what I requested in my policy. Mafia is a game of thoroughly imperfect information. Worry less about what you're not sure about and talk more about the little bits that you see.
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On June 06 2010 03:35 sputnik.theory wrote:
Yink, no offense but half your posts up to now can be summed up as VOTE FOR YINK.
That being said, you've also posted plenty of information that others have found useful and I'm not trying to take away from that. I'm just not really interested in the early stages of a game as much what comes later and I'm trying to play in a way that will help me get to lategame so I can help make sure town wins. Why should I paint a target on my back for mafia by being a hyper active townie so early on? Especially when I don't feel like the insight I could offer at this point in the game would be as authoritative as others who've played this game before?
Because if you really are a townie, your victory condition isn't to survive to the end, it's to get a townie win. Yes, actives are more likely to get targetted by mafia. You don't need to be hyper active, you just need to be active. Your insight doesn't need to be authoritative, it just needs to be voiced.
If you're not posting anything of substance, you're helping the mafia because it creates a cloak under which they can hide. Mafia can do the same and then just point to you (and anyone else who does the same) and we have no way to make a good hanging.
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A note on roleclaiming - please realize that roleclaiming to myself or DTA sooner rather than later will lend more credit to the truth of your roleclaim. This is simply because you can give us information about what's going to happen before it happens. If we don't trust you as a medic, we're not very well going to feed you the name of our detective to protect. If we don't trust you as a detective, we're not exactly going to be able to hang someone on your whim.
For instance, if you're a medic, you can tell us who you are protecting (or agree to a target we might suggest). Based on how many kills we see, how many vigs we sent out, interactions with potential hits on a given target, it can help us confirm the truth of your claim. Nothing is 100% since mafia could relinquish a kill to try to lend credit to your claim, but this is a win for town anyhow since they're reducing their kills.
If you're a DT, you can feed us who you are investigating (or agree to targets we suggest) and the resultant information. If you tell us player A is a townie, then the following night player A gets killed, it lends credit to your roleclaim far more than if you roleclaimed that you knew player A was a townie after he's already dead. Same deal though, nothing is 100%, but it's very risky for a mafia to try to claim player A is a townie before killing them since they could turn up as a blue role or a miller.
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On June 06 2010 03:56 crate wrote:
Just going to weigh in on the activity thing proposed by our dear Pardoner:
It only holds any weight if you threaten to lynch inactives and then follow through. However, in doing so, you're costing the town in this game. Mafia can continue to do the bare minimum pretty easily and have much more incentive to do so than town does, so I think that if the town is lucky we'll get one mafioso dead from not posting enough to meet the requirements, tops. We'll have more material on the less-active mafia this way, sure--they'll be posting at least twice a day instead of once, and it'll have some substance--but we won't have the lynches to punish them for it because I will guarantee not every town-aligned player is going to post enough (not in this game, at least. Perhaps in a game where we're pretty sure that everyone will be active), so we'll have to drop the hammer on those townies.
If you don't lynch people who don't post enough, then this makes some townies and the mafia post more actively on day 2, then they realize there's no teeth to the threat and they can stop and likely some of them will.
As a metagaming play, I think it's okay. Keep doing it, and eventually it'll pay off because there will be activity from everyone (the assumption here is that people who sign up know that this is the standard etc.). I don't think it'll help the town in this individual game though.
I'll go random up some numbers if you want me to look at some people tonight/on day 2.
I'll catch up later on the rest, but I wanted to offer my thoughts on this now.
I understand your thoughts on the metagameyness (this is an awesome word) of the play, but this is not my goal. I can say that I will always play each and every game within the spirit of the game. If we need metagaming adjustments, it should be done in the balance of roles or policy regarding the game rather than player attitudes within the game.
That being said, it is not my intention to continuously lynch inactives. Specifically I want the teeth of this policy to come out when we do not appear to have an otherwise decent target. This is most likely to occur on day 2 and possibly day 3. However, I could see this policy getting invoked on day 6 if we come to a stalemate when someone says, "Hey look, Player B sure got quiet since day 4, why is that?" Hitting an inactive in a stalemate could be better than lynching someone in this instance - it really all just depends on what kind of information we have. It would never get priority over scummy play.
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On June 06 2010 04:23 MTF wrote:
Though I won't quite say "post or you suck", I will join YellowInk in begging for activeness amongst town.
The 'you suck' is for all the people who join a game, see they're townie (and have no role), then post to avoid bans because they're bored. I don't think that's necessarily why our inactives are inactive, I was just pointing out that people who play this way are parasitic to the game.
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On June 06 2010 04:08 crate wrote:
If you're offering it up as a guideline, that's fine. It's a good guideline. It's mostly more of the same ("it's good for the town if people post, so everyone should post" ... which is true) with the additional idea to look at 4 people per day if it's a guideline though.
I read it as being offered more as an ultimatum, which is where the metagaming comes in and where it most likely hurts the town this game.
I posed it like one might pose a law. It's enforcement will always depend on the situation. For instance, highway speed limits around where I live are 55 miles per hour. Is an officer going to pull you over for going 60? Probably not, but maybe. Depends on if they've hit their quota for the month, their mood, and if someone else is speeding by you at 75.
The request for thoughts on 4 people per day spread out in at least two posts was a clear benchmark that all new players should be able to hit. If everyone were to do this, we'd probably be able to get decent enough reads that we could find the red. If someone only posts 3 are they going to get autohung? Of course not - but I wouldn't be averse to hanging them if we didn't have any better targets. It is my hope that people would do more than this, but this policy sets a clear expectation so that someone can't go back and say, "I thought I was being active enough!"
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On June 06 2010 04:34 DarthThienAn wrote:
Vanilla Town is one of the most important roles in the game. The mafia already know who's innocent and who's not innocent. It's the town's job to figure out who's innocent/not innocent. As a townie, you need to make sure all of us know that you are innocent. If you don't do that then you're, again, hurting the town.
Man. I wonder how many times I'm going to have to repeat myself.
I just try to pose it in different words each time.
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I believe in this variant of mafia, there will be clues linking to both of the killers that made the hits. If we're ever able to specifically determine these clues (a very difficult task) we will know that multiple hits were on a single target.
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On June 06 2010 05:22 LunarDestiny wrote:
Good point but you might want to take account that I will be one of the target and I am no medic or detective.
Maybe they won't target me...
Actually, if you're a green townie, you want to make yourself a target enticing for the mafia to kill if you can simply because having a green go down is less damaging to the town than having a blue go down. This is, of course, assuming that all the town players are equally skilled. Obviously the best way to go is to be able to predict who the mafia will hit so the medics just block them.
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On June 06 2010 11:30 LunarDestiny wrote:
Oh yeah, I forgot to explain why I wished barth that he can live past day 1.
In the last game I played with him (Three Kingdom Mafia). He (as Diao Chan) also died on the first night. So I wished that the same thing doesn't happened to him.
Poor guy =\
Alright, well lets get to clue sniffing! I can see half a dozen links just based on information we had dug up from the last round.
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Whomever got HIT but had their hit blocked, the mafia already know they hit you, so please come forward and let us know.
To the medic that blocked the hit, feel free to claim to myself, DTA, and/or to whom you protected. This is only good for night 1 since vigs couldn't make a hit tonight.
A note to the town at large - while this will provide evidence to whomever claims to be hit (assuming there is no argument and only one comes forward) that they are town, it's not 100% as the mafia could choose to decline a hit for just this purpose. But it'll be awfully good evidence.
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On June 05 2010 02:04 ElyAs wrote:
Okay, made up my mind for the voting, I'm gonna vote for Darth because I think I can trust him for now.
I agree that YellowInk and Darth are likely to be non-mafia, but remember that this game is a game of trust and deception. Question everything, even what the ones that were looking town-oriented in the beginning say (hell, even the guy that is coming at you with that kind of advice. It's totally normal to suspect the one that is telling you how to play )
However, don't see ghosts everywhere. When someone is making a strange move once, it doesn't always mean he is scum. Just write it down on your spreadsheet/memory/whatever and try to make him justify his move. We will win this game as townies by speaking a lot and analyze whatever the others say.
Even you with the vanilla townie role ! This game can be fun for everyone !
Well, these were my thoughts for now.
In my digging, this may have been what got ElyAs killed.
Note that it implies that he might not be vanilla. An excellent mafia target choice.
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Beyond the above post, ElyAs was anti-inactive (and he was resolving to post more), pro trusting both DTA and I, levelheaded, and thoughtful.
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I see the connection with Zeks - he has a ninja in his profile. It's why he came up before.
Why is TheGilaboy included? Isn't that just a zealot on the left? On the right I'm not so sure what it is. And the same with TyranoS_NiveK, that's just a zealot.
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On June 06 2010 12:09 LaXerCannon wrote:Show nested quote +On June 06 2010 12:05 YellowInk wrote:I see the connection with Zeks - he has a ninja in his profile. It's why he came up before. Why is TheGilaboy included? Isn't that just a zealot on the left? On the right I'm not so sure what it is. And the same with TyranoS_NiveK, that's just a zealot. zealots have blue blades, dts have green
Ah, I see. I have been out-geeked. I thought DTs had scythes not straight blades.
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It's worth noting in particular that both with this kill and with a clue in the opening there was specifically a knife involved. To me, this points much more heavily towards an actual ninja than a DT. That being said, there may be other places we can link this besides Zeks' ninja.
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EPT
