EPTTL Mafia XXII
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
In response to Incognito, I was not aware using the word noob was so bad for my "image" until reading the thread, as this is my first game. What I mean to say is, I am completely new at this game (on a forum instead of in person). So analyzing the person below me, Jadefist has only 2 posts, one to join the game and promise to be more active, the other seems rather baseless and was a vote for Caller before Ace's claim. + Show Spoiler + On April 15 2010 15:22 JadeFist wrote: I'll play if there's room. I'll be activer this time. On April 19 2010 13:51 JadeFist wrote: Voted Caller. Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia. So in terms of analysis... I found LardyGooser's blind following of BM's idea rather troubling. (I don't know if LG is new but) it seems like he doesn't really understand what's going on and might have just agreed with BM because he was a fellow mafia? LG did not give me the impression that he analyzed BM's plan and then decided it was good for mafia and therefore supported it. Goose then jumps on the RaGe wagon to kill RoL, so right now I'm inclined to believe RoL is town-aligned, unless BC turns out to be innocent I guess. nai.Protoss immediately jumps on after LG, but kept his vote on Caller until way later (confused by this). Goose jumped in very quickly to defend someone's attack on RaGe, who seems to have written something that was very suggestive (in terms of like, everyone being: OMG RaGe is red because he said this) but then RaGe is able to defend himself. So if he's good perhaps he tried to lead people into doing what he was suggesting, but if the plan backfired he could say that he never actually said such a thing? I'm also for the conspiracy theory that Caller and nai.Protoss are both scum. So if anyone listened to Caller and lynched nai.Protoss, then Caller's name would be cleared. Perhaps Caller felt like Protoss was not doing a good job as mafia and tried to use it to win some trust? Protoss also had that issue earlier where he made a fluff post saying Caller made sense, which seemed like he was eager to agree with Caller and at the same time somehow failing to follow the instructions... this makes me very confused. =( nai.Protoss kept his vote on Caller, even though he stated he doesn't believe Caller is mafia and he said he'd change it he "can find somone better to vote for". But Protoss didn't change his vote immediately when he expressed in the thread that he agrees with the RaGe on lynching RoL. So all in all I'm just rather confused by him. >.> Protoss most recently said: I would just like to point out that since Caller is now proven to be mafia and he tried to take me out near the start when he was under risk of being lynched, I am clearly not mafia. Although I am also proving your point that I only post to defend myself and I am semi-inactive. But until I find time to sift through all these posts and come up with a good arguement for why somone is mafia I don't have anything to post. It would seem rather obvious to anyone that if Caller was mafia and not playing some mind game then Protoss is innocent. So why is Protoss so adamant on saying see everyone, I'm innocent!! and then posting fluff again? My conclusion about Protoss is really that he seems rather confused (reasonably so if what he stated is true and this is his first game) so either way, if he's townie or mafia he's not much harm really so we should go for more experienced and influential people that we are more certain about? That being said, voted for Caller and double lynch. I feel like the back and forth stuff between Caller and Ace is really confusing so hopefully this will at least clear that up a bit so we can focus. Also it seems like we're making okay progress so I think a double lynch will be beneficial tomorrow. P.S. I don't know if you guys do any post-game analysis stuff, but can someone explain to me afterwards what the whole deal with Ace and his bidding stuff is? Its motivation is really confusing to me. >.< P.P.S. I'm a girl, and stating this mainly because I would prefer to be referred to as a she instead of a he (in reference to Incognito's post mainly xD). | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I was just doing analysis, didn't know what I would come up with as I went along, and I made my conclusion at the end. I didn't analyze anyone that I did not write about. Sure, if I knew ahead of time then I might not do an analysis on Protoss, but he seemed manageable when I was reading so I'm just trying my best to contribute. I definitely will be watching him, but I think if he's the last mafia left there really isn't much harm and we could take him out easily, whereas someone with more experience would be more scary. So given that I don't have much against protoss and he doesn't seem like a great player, my final conclusion is just to keep an eye on him and focus on bigger threats. Like I said, I'm new at this, so if someone else manages to find something real on protoss after I brought him to everyone's attention then I've managed to contribute my part. Do you know already who you wish to lynch tomorrow Scara? I personally don't. But I see kind of two lines of people in focus right now, Caller/Ace/etc. and BC/RoL/etc. So I think it'll be reasonably likely that we can find someone suspicious tied to both of those camps, and therefore a double lynch would speed things up a little in terms of what information we would have regarding those two camps. Why have you not contributed much Scara? It seems like all you've done is get in a fight with Jugan, and seem condescending overall and focus on how the quality of the posts suck. You keep asking questions, but where's your analysis of anything? Games in the past that ive played all point to lynching big players that look suspicious pays off some of the time but most turn out town, then you're left with inactives which allows mafia to sit there, do fuck all and get away with it So from this game I'm assuming Caller is a "big player," of course this could be an incorrect assumption since I have not gone through previous games to see what Caller is like, but he certainly gives off that impression. So scara in your first vote you said: ##vote caller Where are you caller, if you post i'll change my vote but inactiveness leads to death So you voted for a big player AND an inactive...I don't get it. You then retract your vote because you didn't read carefully, and just throw out names randomly while stating you haven't finished reading yet... I NEED TO READ THE RULES LOOOOOOOOOOOL ## vote for BloodyC0bbler LOL sorry guys i'll change it after ive read everything im up to page 22 And then finally vote for Jugan, basically because he clutters up the thread rather than you think he is mafia. Now today you just bandwagon vote Caller, implying that you need no reasoning because motbob already said it. I've given more reason to vote Caller than you have. So Scara, could you please explain your reasoning, rather than asking other people to do so for you? | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So either Ace just failed at deducing if Caller was mafia, and he's innocent. Or Ace is mafia, in that case, it would be extremely risky to claim Caller as mafia. As mafia, Ace would know that Caller was not mafia, so claiming he's mafia is pretty much death if he turned out townie. There would be a very low probability of him turning up Miller. So for now, I think Ace is telling the truth, but a bit sketchy with analysis (possibly just because Caller's acting funny, which seems counterproductive from his role as a townie?). | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 04:22 tree.hugger wrote: Except.... From the mafia's perspective, Ace was lying about the rolecheck. The mafia could not have known that Caller was the miller, and though they might have couched their views slightly to accommodate for that, it seems highly likely that, in order to burnish their credibility, the mafia would've been among Ace's more vocal skeptics. Therefore, when Ace's claim would've been revealed to be total bull-L then the FoS could be smoothly redirected towards Ace, and the mafia members would look like they had a better handle on the game then others. So it seems to me that people who doubted Ace most strongly, or accused him of lying may have revealed themselves to be mafia. And one person sticks out at the top of this list, beyond all his scummy posting, and random accusations, I think BloodyC0bbler's seat just got a lot hotter. I disagree with you tree.hugger. If I was mafia, I would just jump on the bandwagon and just vote for Caller like everyone else. First, there's no reason to attract attention to yourself. Most importantly, once Caller turns out to be innocent, we lynch Ace, and mafia managed to get us to waste 2 lynches EZPZ. Why be skeptical of Ace for no reason? Just follow the bandwagon, and let the townies kill themselves. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 06:11 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:But given the logic posted by Korynne, it wouldn't make sense for BC to be red since he was Aces strongest opponent. I'm more wary of RoL given the circumstances of his roleclaim - right after Ace, and right after I pointed out that he hadn't really contributed anything to the town since he get back, despite saying he would. I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia. I don't know what we should do tomorrow yet, I guess see how night turns out. Unless BC turns out Miller I think we're probably lynching one of BC/RoL? Then I think we should focus on some of the more inactive/lurking people. Protoss is still on my suspicion list, so is Scaramanga (from his replies to my post). Tree.hugger needs to explain how he came up with the strange logic... Watch out for Infund if BC comes up mafia. But anyway I'm not going to analyze anyone too much now, going to wait for night results. Don't forget to vote for/against double lynch guys! | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 22 2010 08:27 nbtnbt5 wrote: also what is this and where can i find it? (i tried searching for it) Uhhh... xD If you look on the Mafia forum, and then look for the ONLY THREAD THAT ZBOT STARTED THAT HAPPENS TO HAVE THE SAME NUMBER FOR MAFIA AS THIS GAME, I think you would find it? xP Why is this so hard? xD [Link provided here incase you still cannot find it] This reflects poorly on your abilities in general. >_> | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If the double lynch is already passed then just wait for tonight's actions to see what happens. Maybe Ace will find another mafia, maybe RoL will, maybe we can deduce something from the mafia's killing pattern. I wouldn't try to waste your time to over-analyze anything now and just wait until night's over, unless we want to come up with a plan for what blue roles should do tonight, depending on if we think that helps us more than it helps mafia. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I think it makes sense to read your archive RoL, since you are accusing BC. So we basically have to make a decision between lynching you and him. RaGe, is your intent that we share what we find in the archives immediately or tomorrow? Or at all? | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Here's my analysis of RoL's situation ASSUMING ROL IS MAFIA, ACE IS DETECTIVE AND BC IS TOWN: Ace accuses Caller, who RoL knows is innocent. Knowing that Ace is town and probably detective, RoL deduces that Caller is probably a miller, since he is not mafia. It looks like Caller will probably get lynched, so what could be a good action for RoL? Caller gets lynched, KP=4, there will be 18T/7M left (he can't predict the 2 inactives so assuming ending the day with 22 townies). Since RoL claimed that BC was mafia, we lynch BC (there was no sign that we wanted to do a double lynch when RoL claimed). This would be even more convincing if someone rolechecked RoL and discovered he was detective (if he was godfather and chose detective). That leaves us with 17T/7M. KP = 4, so mafia kills 4 townies, that leaves us with 13T/7M. Now clearly we lynch RoL, perhaps we get lucky and double lynch a mafia, perhaps we fail, that leaves us with 13T/5M or 12T/6M. Either way, KP is 3. Assassins have used their rolechecks by now so probably one kill happens as well? Next morning we're at best 10T/5M, at worst 8T/6M (taking into account an assassin kill). If we double lynch someone two days in a row, we're not that much better (could be worse since we could lynch a townie). So if I was RoL, especially if I was mafia godfather, claiming BC is mafia right after Ace would be a decent plan. the rest is spam. So far, RoL has not lived up to his claim of helping to find reds. The other stuff he said was already covered and neither new nor helpful contributions. Maybe he needs some "more time?" I do believe RoL was actually gone for the weekend, but he has yet to step up his play in the slightest. The fact that RoL claimed very abruptly after Infund barely accused him even slightly of the fact that he wasn't helping (not even an FoS and explicitly saying this is basically spam) is also very suspicious. It seems like he was just waiting for someone to say something so he doesn't look completely suspicious roleclaiming when he was under no danger (especially compared to the first day when RaGe bandwagon'd him). RoL has also recently advocated for people to hurry up and pass double lynch so night phase can begin, a sign of okay guys hurry up let's not think too much so we can get to my plan already. So in conclusion, in my opinion, IT IS A VERY BAD IDEA TO JUST DECIDE TO LYNCH BC AND THEN LYNCH RoL IF BC IS INNOCENT, because the time we waste could put us quite behind given that 2 townies got modkilled, and that mafia kill power is so high. In terms of who to lynch other than RoL/BC, I'd have to wait until night kills/actions get revealed before passing any judgment (especially if mafia will use the information to kill the most innocent looking townies). | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I feel like if we are not doing a double lynch, and RoL is leading us on the wrong track, then we're wasting quite a lot of time while the mafia kills half the town. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Actually, given that Caller ended up being miller, I think it's rather silly for nai.protoss to post something like that if he was mafia. When it is revealed that Caller is miller, nai.protoss has to defend himself all over again. Given how he plays, I would say he's just an overly defensive noob. Either way I don't agree on hitting protoss if we have a better player that is a suspect, only based on the fact that he doesn't seem to know what he's doing, i.e. probably won't contribute a lot to the mafia. Mostly in agreement with Incognito's post minus the fact that he called everyone apathetic people. xD While it is true that some people have not been contributing it seems rather overgeneralizing to call everyone apathetic. Not to mention that kind of hostility further intimidates new players... | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Just read stuff and I would say at least make a post giving your reasoning when voting (even if it is for example, "well i don't know much but it seems like ____ is making a lot of sense here when they're accusing ___, so I'm voting for _____ today"). This way at least if we think you're voting incorrectly we can try to put you on the "right track," if you are a townie. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.> I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie. My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons. I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc. I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say. If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats. Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply. I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now. Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO). | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Ace RoL Korynne Scamp Incognito's list: Incognito Ace So Ace, and who will be the second person that a medic should coin flip? | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead). Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Can we all discuss and settle on a 3rd candidate for medic protection? | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
[Protect randomly between 2 people] 50% chance both people are protected, 25% chance of each getting protected twice. Alternatively from mafia perspective: 1 hit has 25% chance of killing someone. 2 hits has a 75% chance of killing someone. 3 hits is guaranteed to kill someone. [Protect randomly between 3 people] 33% chance that someone get's double protected, 67% chance that two people get randomly protected. Alternatively, from mafia perspective: 1 hit has a 44% chance of killing someone. 2 hits has a 89% chance of killing someone. 3 hits is guaranteed to kill someone. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If RoL is mafia, then Ace is still relatively protected. Incognito doesn't seem /that/ useful to protect. My vote for medics is for tossing a coin between Ace and RoL. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I mean it still requires 3 hits to guarantee death, but for 2 people I'd say 89% is close enough to certainty. Now the Ace with 2/3 and RoL with 1/3: AA = 44% chance of double protecting Ace. AR + RA = 44% chance of protecting each once. RR = 11% chance of double protecting RoL. So from the other side: 1 hit on Ace: 11% chance of killing him 2 hits on Ace: 44% chance of killing him 3 hits on Ace: guaranteed to kill. 1 hit on RoL: 44% chance of killing him 2 hits on RoL: 89% chance of killing him 3 hits on RoL: guaranteed to kill. Do these numbers look better than 50/50? xD (1 hit: 25%, 2 hits: 75%) | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
[Goal: Kill Ace 100% and hit RoL] Best choice: 50/50 would protect RoL more if he is detective [Goal: Highest expected value for detectives killed] 50/50: Expected value is 1.5 detectives if they put two hits on each 67/33: Expected value is 1.44 detectives if they put 3 hits on Ace and 1 hit on RoL So we would prefer 67/33 in this case I don't know enough to know what is better for mafia, so someone else tell me what's better for us to do. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I maintain that medics should only protect RoL/Ace, three people would be spreading it out too thin, especially if we only have 1 medic left. If we have 3 medics left that's a pretty good solid protection on Ace, if the mafia really wants to kill Ace they would have to put 4 hits on him, unlikely to happen given how many townies they could kill instead. I would go with protect Ace 2/3 and protect RoL 1/3 for all medics. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
The more the mafia is convinced that we will carry out this plan, the less likely they are to hit important players, which is good for town. Protecting a random is strictly worse than protecting someone important. If medics want to go against protecting Ace/RoL, they should at least be protecting active people who they feel are townies ie. choose randomly between people who are not BC, inactives, or those they feel like are particularly scummy people. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I guess congrats to RoL? xD (I knew you looked fishy!!) 14 townies, 7 mafia. >.< | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum. I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch). I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying. Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately. So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
We have 2 more to use, I don't see the harm in speeding things up... | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Seems like it's only beneficial for town, since we get to decide who to kill, so it's another chance of getting a mafia, whereas not using it just means another night passes and mafia gets to kill more townies. So other than the fact that using it 1st or 2nd day doesn't make much sense, it seems like we should just constantly vote double lynch until we use them up no? | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I'm going to do an in-depth analysis of everyone, mostly data mining, as in level of activity, general accusations, ratio of good to fluff posts, etc. Will add conclusion about each player at the end though. List of players is a bit long, so I'm going to post my analysis of each person separately in a post if you people don't mind. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Started April 20th, replacing Zona. Level of Activity Other than his first 6 posts, all his posts are very far apart in time. 13 posts total 4 "real" posts total "real" posts cluster towards the beginning Summary and Accusations: Started off doubting Ace in the Ace vs. Caller thing (basically time when he entered the game) Still doubting Ace after Caller is miller'd. Feels a bit under fire from people trying to analyze his predecessor Accuses BC of being assassin Accuses RoL of being scum Says he'll do an analysis of BM later Longer explanation of why RoL is scum Says that he doesn't want to tell medic who to protect, and says vigis/assassins should perform some hits without providing recommendations Again with the "gogogo medics vigis and assassins." without recommendations. Does not like Korynne telling medics what to do, saying mafia could kill 4 randoms instead of Ace and RoL Complains about 14T/7M and doesn't contribute. No new posts between end of zBot and right now. Conclusion: Btw when I count "real" posts I don't mean specifically 1 post, it's more like okay these 3 all look a bit fluffy I'll combine them into 1.5 "real" post count. Anyway, I think BrownBear looks a bit suspicious. Posts are getting fluffier as time goes by, and less activity as well. I expect some real content from BrownBear or he looks rather scummy. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Level of Activity Posting slightly less these days (not alarmingly less) 21 posts total (not counting pre-game chitchat and his run for mayor...) Pretty much all posts of some substance Summary and Accusations: Points out a couple obvious things (2+ assassins, some comment on BM's plan being stupid, no PMs so BC's plan is silly) Advocates a double lynch on day 3 (with poor reasoning IMO) + Show Spoiler + 2) Assumption: Mafia KP is Number/2 rounded up. Then, if we play strictly by Lynches/NK, we would have to lynch a Mafia by Day 4. We are then required to have 100% accuracy with our lynches, and the REQUIRED use of double lynches on subsequent days. Therefore it should be safe to use one of our double-lynches on Day 3, so long as we don't suffer any accidental townie casualties by Vigis or Assassins. The problem is that it shortens the town lifespan by about a day if we fail to lynch. Generally speaking, Day 3 is the turning point of most games so it seems reasonable to vote for a double then, but I'd rather wait and see how people are posting so far. Doesn't think Caller is mafia Complains about Jugan and advocates lynching him (the spaghetti strap analogy xD) Wants to add love1another to list of inactives/potential lynchees Points out that LardyGooser wanting a mass role-claim is dumb Points out the targets in voting (Caller, BM, Jugan, RoL) Proposal: Forget Jugan/Caller, focus on BM or RoL Points out that love1another is active elsewhere on TL but not in mafia Puts his "$50" on RaGe being rolechecked by Ace Bunch of dead people analysis: + Show Spoiler + CynanMachae - suspects TheLardyGooser - pro-inactive lynching - agrees with Incognito on Osmoses - dislikes RoL bandwagon Radfield - contributes to double-lynch discussion (use double lynch early?) - advocates inactive Day 1 lynch - anti-BM plan, suspicious of him - takes notes of particular bandwagoners (darththienan, meeple, infundibulum, scamp, jadefist) - speaks in defense of RaGe - FoS on AcrossFiveJulys Foolishness - is fairly critical of meeple re: lynches (though this was a misunderstanding?) - FoS on TheLardyGooser (and eventually killed him) - misunderstanding between him/Incognito about spam posting - FoS on RaGe for previous discussion [nyc]hobbes - against double-lynch on Day 3 - argument with Jugan - for lynching inactives on Day 1 Agrees with other people that there is a good case on Meeple Also points out Darth, Scamp and Inf, who he will analyze later if no one else does so Points out that JadeFist is being dumb and will probably be killed Believes KF91 is fairly pro-town. Eye out on Scamp, Inf in the clear for now, Darth = newb/green Order of suspicion: Inf>Scamp>Darth, however not much to suggest any of them are scum Brings slight attention to checking out Meeple again Conclusion: Not really sure what to make of him. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I will be back later (thinking I'll do these 2 at a time xD). | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Scaramanga you're still not really posting... I mean if you're just going to use the excuse well I suck at this game so I'll just sit behind and watch and try to push people forward that's really no help. Dx Could you perhaps do something like what I did? (pick a couple people, go through zBot and summarize their activities and then give your conclusion? If you suck at analysis at least someone else can go through the summary and pick up on things) Anyway I'm done for the night. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Also BC was checked by RoL, not Ace. >.> Ace caught a mafia today... *disregarding your post and analysis until you learn to read* [Checked through Osmoses' posts, this one doesn't seem inconsistent other than like 2 pieces of misinformation] | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
A mad hatter and vigi already died, and some people say that more than that would be too much KP, from the perspective of the game maker. Also Mad Hatter only performs his kills when he dies (in which case the two people he placed bombs under die as well) so we wouldn't know about their possible kills either. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Incognito claimed he took a hit, but there were 2 hits. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Another night, another four people dead. DarthThienAn and Roffles were walking home from a late night job during the night, but simultaneously both were ambushed and went down in an instant. The next morning, the Town would find the bodies of DarthThienAn and Roffles lying at the foot of a prominent Liq Vegas casino. The other two Mafia targets put up a fight, but did not fare much better. I'm assuming the other two Mafia targets "fared better" since they didn't die? So that means 2 people didn't get hit no? I don't really think I fully understand the day post so correct me if I'm wrong. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
But they were targetted by the mafia as well? But then that means Incognito is falsely claiming a hit? I'm so confused. Dx | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Looks like we're slacking off now since we're done our double lynch early. (I have to blame myself too for that, kinda decided to give up on analyzing everyone because along with the other mafia game it just feels like too much time spent on mafia...) How about we all do the analyze the person below you thing? Except I went and used a random number generator (in case a mafia can always cover up another guy's tracks by just poorly analyzing them). So ANALYZE THE PERSON 16 DOWN FROM YOU (take your number, add 16, if it's greater than 19, subtract 19 from it. ex. I'm #11, 11+16 = 27, 27-19 = 8 so I analyze Scamp). Here's a list for reference (don't forget to analyze people's predecessors): Player List: 1. Zona -> BrownBear 2. d3_crescentia 3. KF91 4. Scaramanga 5. Bill Murray 6. Fishball 7. RaGe 8. Scamp 9. Ace 10. meeple 11. Fulgrim -> Korynne 12. Falcynn 13. nbtnbt5 14. IntoTheWow 15. Elemenope -> Incognito 16. nAi.PrOtOsS 17. Osmoses 18. motbob 19. madnessman Let's try to get some analysis done to help our blues! | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Level of Activity 16 posts total 3~4 "real" posts total TONS of fluffy What do you think of this? Oh what do you think of that? etc posts. Summary and Accusations: Warns lardygooser that he will lynch him if he continues to cry noob Generally agrees with the lynch inactive idea "Right now it's either Jpak or nothing. I don't agree with nothing so let's get a lynch." Analyzes Abenson (person below you deal) and concluded confused town/scum (aka no conclusion really...) Notes that people should stop getting distracted Notes that BM seems to have dropped the plan for no reason Questions BM again about why he abandoned his plan Says it seems like he was asked to explain why he thinks RaGe is suspicious, but then says it looks like d3 is supposed to do it so he won't until d3 does, unless Ace asks him to Claims to get "a really bad scumdar sense" from d3's posts Asks KF91 of his opinion on Motbob Asks Osmoses to explain why he thinks KF91 has been convincingly pro-town Asks Osmoses about his opinion on himself, Scara, and Fishball Asks BrownBear if he is preemptively defending himself Conclusion: Looks scummy to me or just really un-contributing. So what do you think? Oh what about you? Hey guys analyze me while you're at it. Etc etc. If townie, pretty useless. Unsupported scumdar of d3. Why would you want someone to just randomly analyze you? To take their time away from analyzing other mafia? Why are you grouping yourself with Scara and Fishball? Do you know that they're both townies and hope that if you're last on the lynch list you'll manage to slip by? Why did you ask BrownBear if he's preemptively defending himself? Do you know he's innocent and that he's accusing someone innocent so you're hoping he'll get lynched? But seriously, WHY DO YOU ASK SO MANY QUESTIONS??? Dx "Well gee I don't know, what do you guys think?" -paraphrased from Scamp | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I have no problems with questions being asked. My problem with you is that asking questions is all you seem to do! You have contributed very little of your own analysis. Instead of helping town by analyzing people much (you've done so once, because it was requested of everyone to analyze the person below you, and gave a very very vague he's either confused town or confused scum conclusion. Well gee, if you're not going to make a conclusion I guess you don't need to preemptively defend yourself against anything...) You say the analysis you request on yourself wasn't random, care to explain? I eagerly await your very detailed and well thought out analysis of Bill Murray. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
OK SERIOUSLY GUYS TIME FOR ANALYSIS!!! Please analyze the person you are supposed to. We don't have time for inactivity and messing around. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
After 24 hours anyone who has not responded will be put on the suspicious list. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So Falcynn should analyze Ace's guy, which is Fishball. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Like BM said, I would like to add Scamp to your list Incognito. I also propose double lynch, like always. Given now that Ace is gone, we're on our own. Everyone posts so infrequently that we might as well step it up and do double lynches. Double lynches means we get two actions per mafia one action (think lynch lynch instead of lynch [mafia kills 3 people] lynch). Instead of like omg we might kill another innocent townie, at least we'll be killing the more useless or scummy townies, with a 1/3 chance of them being mafia. Whereas when mafia kills, it's up to 3 people and they're definitely going to be townies. So seeing as our yay let's just wait for Ace to turn something up every night route is gone, we should work twice as hard, and therefore lynch twice as many people. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Scara's last post smells like scum. Why? I think stacking Ace is a big waste of mafia KP. If they stack Ace, that's -1 T, and without the 100% confirmed lynch we might have a 33% chance? So that's like -1.33T (-1 T - .33M - .66T = -1.33T). Whereas if they killed 3 random townies that's -2.5T at least (given that medics might randomly protect them), with Ace having say 100% chance of catching someone (since he talks about it in here, maybe mafia thought he would for sure catch someone). So that's -1.5T (-2.5T - 1 M) at least. I am inclined to believe that this was a dumb idea by Mafia, and Scara seems to think it was a good idea and would have executed it. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Please post your analysis on your designated person, if you decline to do so, please give a reason (claiming newb is not a reason, just do your best job). | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 27 2010 18:13 meeple wrote: Yearg... you really love to put all the emphasis out there with caps and bolds on all your important parts... god forbid you learn how to use colours  ... These types of things were a nice contribution... Before now, it's mainly thoughts about stuff that's already happened and now she's being proactive and forming plans and putting forward ideas. (Do I smell a math major?) You should go find my first post, it had lots of spoilers and quotes in it. =D And yes, I'm a math major. >_> On a serious note, I'm not convinced that Scara is town, but I'm convinced that he's useless enough to leave alone for now. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
So it's a good forgery, if nothing else. xD | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
| ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
On April 28 2010 14:42 meeple wrote: Ah there will be some tell... unless the mafia double up hits on someone... a missing mafia hit will mean either a medic or a veteran took it. But you're right.. the mafia don't really want to hit him now... since it will be an expensive kill. erg I mean it's a good role to claim in that after he claims and is not killed anytime at night, he can just claim it would not be in mafia's interest to kill someone takes twice the effort to kill. So if you're mafia and your last ditch effort is roleclaim, what do you do? -You claim any active role, you get lynched if you can't perform whatever action at night. -You claim townie well everyone does that, and besides what do you say when you're not killed at night (mafia certainly would prefer to target more confirmed townies than the suspicious looking ones) -You claim veteran, you can't do anything to actively confirm your role, mafia wouldn't want to hit you because a) that confirms your role b) you take 2 hits to kill, surely there are 2 better choices for townies. So this is something to take into consideration when voting with this new BB roleclaim in mind. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
We've probably lost by this point. Inactivity and modkills suck. =( So it's 11/6, then after tonight it will be 8/6 if medics are unlucky. I would go with random protection, best chance we have. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
From my experience, nbt/nai/scara have all been suspicious to me. Meeple and Osmoses I don't have that feeling about, I don't really have any feeling about (no protown feeling either). They seem kind of under the radar in that sense. It would be pretty cool if Incognito/Scamp are mafia and leading retard town around. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I said even if you can't come up with any magical OMG HE'S RED FOR SURE analysis at least you can summarize what people did. This way: #1 Other people, who might not have time to go through everyone in detail, can now use your summaries to come up with "real" analysis. #2 At least this shows town that you're making an effort. How would I know if you're actually nooby or just refusing to contribute?? Even if you're mafia you gotta at least pretend to do something no? xD I have no problems playing with noobs (I mean, I'm new to this game online myself) but flat out refusing to do anything is just asking to be banned from later games. | ||
|
Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I definitely had a huge suspicion that those leading the town on were mafia. But given how inactive town is and playing the other mafia game I was like, screw it, it would take way too much effort to lynch Incognito and Osmoses/Scara. xD I think I'll stick to small games from now on, I don't think I have enough time now with work and school starting to be able to analyze like 30 people and try to present a coherent argument. | ||
| ||
