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The person 16 down from me:
Falcynn. I already did an analysis of him. I don't think anything's changed since then either. Quoted for reference:
Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to.
Ah yes, IntoTheWow, thank you for reminding me of my statement:
If you're not going to bother stepping up your game now, don't expect us to believe you when you pop up tomorrow and try to defend yourself after we've accused you.
Either way, we probably can't afford to policy lynch. But at the same time, I doubt any of the people who haven't posted yet are going to give a decent defense anyway. I'm going to make this my policy for future games, at least as a test for the next few games. Seriously I'm tired of waiting to hear people until they are accused and come up to defend themselves. Its a waste of my time, and everyone elses time. Which reminds me: people like meeple (still), falcynn, scaramanga, fishball and nai.protoss follow this trend. Thats 5 people. Out of 18. Not good.
Anyway, people I have high on my list that should be seriously considered for lynch:
Fishball
Scaramanga
BrownBear
General reasons for lynching them have already been given, so I won't bother to go into detail on them right now. BrownBear would be my choice pick right now, but given that he is actually active, I'll wait to hear a defense before voting.
IntoTheWow: Inactives on TL mafia...are always existent. Are there trends to point to whether they are town or mafia? Not really. Inactives are useless in every game, and burden the town at the critical moments in the late game. At this point, further analysis is relatively futile. Sure, you can probably find some things, but most likely, you'll find nothing conclusive. If you are to do any analysis, analyze people who have posted a substantial amount. The information you have now is probably the only relevant information you will have. Other than that, its a crap shoot.
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scamp feels really scummy if you read up on him
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Okay. Let's start with some numbers here, as numbers are good and can't really be contested:
If our lynch hits a mafia today, it's 12-5 into 9-5 in which case we need to lynch at least one mafia tomorrow. If we vote for a double and go 1-1, that's still okay for us because we're alive the day afterward at 6-4. Not the best condition, but at least it looks winnable. In the worst case scenario, we lynch a townie today and we're at 11-6. Then, we lose 3 townies and get 8-6, and then we absolutely NEED to hit a double-lynch to get to 8-4, and then we need to hit the rest of our lynches to win.
This depends on absolute 100% participation from all townies, because then it should become pretty obvious that where the mafia are hiding amongst the less active.
Now, let's look at motbob below:
Analysis of motbob:
- Rejects the BM plan
- Makes a useless post about how he doesn't think about saying anything
- Contributes a post about how mafia votes are likely divided
- Is a negative Nancy for saying we can't win at this point
- Corrects/defends himself in regard to posting times
Notes on the voting record: Day 1 vote on Bill Murray, Day 2 vote on Caller, Day 3 on both Inf and BC. Seems fairly in-line with the majority vote except for Day 1, but since he hasn't really been posting enough to explain himself it's more than a little suspicious. His position on the vote list is around the middle for Days 2 and 3, but he doesn't vote for double-lynch on Day 2. Given our discussion of shooting BC occurred during the night it's more than a little troubling to me that he'd miss out on the vote. Then there's this comment:
On April 21 2010 14:42 motbob wrote:##Vote: CallerCaller and then Ace if Caller flips green  Which suggests to me that he could have had an inkling that Caller actually *was* green (technically black). Of note here is that Scaramanga agrees with him, and Scara's also been MIA and on a number of suspicion lists. But, can we actually positively conclude anything from this information? Maybe not; he might just have an actual reason for being less active. The matter of the fact is that we're significantly short on information as it stands, so it does us better to actually accuse based on what hunches we have and analyze our responses... and it just so happens that I've got a hunch.
The FoS is poking you, motbob. Your response better be damn convincing of your innocence.
Something else of note: Fishball has been voting for him, and then BC and Caller on the day before. Since the latter two actually turned out to be town, I'm going to do a little search through their archived posts to see if there's anything to hint at their reasoning for motbob besides "I'm getting lynched so I'll waste my vote". As for Fishball, he's been voting for him two days in a row, and with very little explanation but also very little incentive. He hasn't been actively trying to push for motbob in the thread, so either he's Mafia trying to get away with placing dumb votes or there's actually something there that he should share with the rest of us.
Here's my problem with this kind of analysis Korynne suggested - is it really the best thing to be doing? So far it just seems that we'll end up with a bunch of inactive people calling other people out on their own inactivity in this analysis exercise, and though we'll suddenly have more posts I don't think they're quite going to tell us what we need to know. What we really need here is focus. If we decisively conclude that none of our active players have the potential to be Mafia, we should then move on to the less active players.
Going to sleep on this and hope a plan comes to me...
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what happened to the modkills?
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Everyone was active I guess. Or at least everyone voted for something, I don't know if flamewheel went through the posts.
Like BM said, I would like to add Scamp to your list Incognito.
I also propose double lynch, like always. Given now that Ace is gone, we're on our own. Everyone posts so infrequently that we might as well step it up and do double lynches.
Double lynches means we get two actions per mafia one action (think lynch lynch instead of lynch [mafia kills 3 people] lynch). Instead of like omg we might kill another innocent townie, at least we'll be killing the more useless or scummy townies, with a 1/3 chance of them being mafia. Whereas when mafia kills, it's up to 3 people and they're definitely going to be townies.
So seeing as our yay let's just wait for Ace to turn something up every night route is gone, we should work twice as hard, and therefore lynch twice as many people.
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Oh god, not ace, we needed him so badly
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In order to defend myself, I'd like to hear a post actually outlining why I deserve to be lynched, rather than just a post saying "Hey, guys, here's 3 names, ok GO."
So, Incognito. If you want to lynch me, you're gonna damn well have to earn it  I really want to hear why I'm scum.
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Augh... that was a cripping blow... although perhaps we can take some consolation in that they didn't hit anyone else tonight. I just finished a big exam so expect some analysis on Korynne soon according to his list.
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HER list. Dx *growls*
Scara's last post smells like scum. Why? I think stacking Ace is a big waste of mafia KP. If they stack Ace, that's -1 T, and without the 100% confirmed lynch we might have a 33% chance? So that's like -1.33T (-1 T - .33M - .66T = -1.33T). Whereas if they killed 3 random townies that's -2.5T at least (given that medics might randomly protect them), with Ace having say 100% chance of catching someone (since he talks about it in here, maybe mafia thought he would for sure catch someone). So that's -1.5T (-2.5T - 1 M) at least.
I am inclined to believe that this was a dumb idea by Mafia, and Scara seems to think it was a good idea and would have executed it.
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Also, we wouldn't need Ace so badly if some of you people actually helped the town and analyzed people and were active. Pointing my finger at you, again, Scaramanga.
Please post your analysis on your designated person, if you decline to do so, please give a reason (claiming newb is not a reason, just do your best job).
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On April 27 2010 16:27 Korynne wrote:
HER list. Dx *growls*
Scara's last post smells like scum. Why? I think stacking Ace is a big waste of mafia KP. If they stack Ace, that's -1 T, and without the 100% confirmed lynch we might have a 33% chance? So that's like -1.33T (-1 T - .33M - .66T = -1.33T). Whereas if they killed 3 random townies that's -2.5T at least (given that medics might randomly protect them), with Ace having say 100% chance of catching someone (since he talks about it in here, maybe mafia thought he would for sure catch someone). So that's -1.5T (-2.5T - 1 M) at least.
I am inclined to believe that this was a dumb idea by Mafia, and Scara seems to think it was a good idea and would have executed it.
lol... sorry chica... my bad
I don't agree about Scara's last post though... Stacking was a waste of Mafia KP imo... but he was pretty integral to the town's success so far. That's not saying we can't win without him...
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Korynne
So normally I'd start with who she replaced, which in this case is Fulgrim, but the guy didn't post anything really... so that's useless..
She tends to play the newb card a bit in the beginning but that's excusable since it doesn't seem to prevent her from contributing
On April 22 2010 04:27 Korynne wrote:
Ouch, this makes things more complicated. So Ace was WRONG in that he incorrectly deduced that Caller was mafia. But I guess there isn't much to do about the fact that he "role-checked" Caller and Caller turned up mafia...
So either Ace just failed at deducing if Caller was mafia, and he's innocent.
Or Ace is mafia, in that case, it would be extremely risky to claim Caller as mafia. As mafia, Ace would know that Caller was not mafia, so claiming he's mafia is pretty much death if he turned out townie. There would be a very low probability of him turning up Miller.
So for now, I think Ace is telling the truth, but a bit sketchy with analysis (possibly just because Caller's acting funny, which seems counterproductive from his role as a townie?).
[Hmmm... I suppose this is the newbness coming through here... since really the fact that Caller was miller and not mafia means that Ace is like 99% detective...
On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote:
Actually, now that I think about it, Caller being a miller seems the best for Ace being detective (like better than if Caller ended up being mafia). What happy coincidence. If you guys say Ace is the best player, then I think we have a good chance to win! =)
Lol... frick... as soon as I typed this out I saw this... Alright so your logic is up to snuff. I'm still including the other thing in there since I like this sort of stream of thought thing that tells my impressions of her as I read through her posts...
She thinks alot(or at least several times) from the "mafia" perspective... which means she's either town or a very confident red. To explain more about this since I looked back and realized it didn't make too much sense as it was... I think that although of course thinking from the mafia perspective is necessary, people tend to shy away from it (especially reds) since it links their name with mafia... In past games, when I was town, people have accused me of being red on the basis that I was very willing to put myself in red shoes.
On April 23 2010 15:29 Korynne wrote:
nai.protoss. D=
If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.>
I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie.
My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons.
I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow.
Yearg... you really love to put all the emphasis out there with caps and bolds on all your important parts... god forbid you learn how to use colours  ...
Regardless, This was a weird idea to me... we can't really force someone to vote with a innocent, but besides that it definitely takes away some information about that person (their voting record). I think Incog pointed out that pretty soon after too... iirc
On April 23 2010 15:52 Korynne wrote:
Well sure that's the ideal situation. But if nai.protoss feels like quitting surely we'd prefer a brainless townie to a resigned dead townie.
If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc.
I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say.
If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats.
Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply.
I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now.
Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO).
Again with this weird plan... hrmph... but now you also mention that we could lynch him?
On April 23 2010 16:10 Korynne wrote:
Considering how low we are on townies, I really don't think having a dead townie is good for our causes, especially since mafia KP is so high.
I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead).
Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO.
Now you say we shouldn't lynch? There's some non-sensical-ish things that I could focus on here... but I won't since I think the general idea about a persons post is more important...
On April 23 2010 17:12 Korynne wrote:
I posted the probabilities for 3 people. xD
I mean it still requires 3 hits to guarantee death, but for 2 people I'd say 89% is close enough to certainty.
Now the Ace with 2/3 and RoL with 1/3:
AA = 44% chance of double protecting Ace.
AR + RA = 44% chance of protecting each once.
RR = 11% chance of double protecting RoL.
So from the other side:
1 hit on Ace: 11% chance of killing him
2 hits on Ace: 44% chance of killing him
3 hits on Ace: guaranteed to kill.
1 hit on RoL: 44% chance of killing him
2 hits on RoL: 89% chance of killing him
3 hits on RoL: guaranteed to kill.
Do these numbers look better than 50/50? xD (1 hit: 25%, 2 hits: 75%)
These types of things were a nice contribution... Before now, it's mainly thoughts about stuff that's already happened and now she's being proactive and forming plans and putting forward ideas. (Do I smell a math major?)
On April 24 2010 11:52 Korynne wrote:
Man, no vigis... So I guess basically what Ace said.
Ace is like 99% confirmed detective, and that's the best chance we have. So I agree that we should go for BC and Infundibulum.
I'm rather confused as to why Ace did not get roleblocked. Perhaps RoL got roleblocked instead? In that case I suppose giving us BC and diverting attention from Ace is pretty good for assassin to the town. xD
However I would propose we lynch Infundibulum before BC. If BC turns up innocent we can't really do anything, if Infundibulum turns up not mafia/miller than we need to lynch Ace instead of BC (since that would put Ace at a higher chance of being mafia than BC)? I don't know if we need to get every lynch right to win, but if not then lynching Infund is more useful than lynching BC first (we get the result of the lynch immediately before the next lynch).
I also propose double lynch for tomorrow, seeing as how much we need to speed things up since we're pretty on the verge of dying.
Also motbob goes on suspicion list for suggesting role-claim like immediately.
So vote for double lynch, and vote for Infundibulum before BC.
Despite no-one following this... it was actually a good idea. This way we could've paused and decided whether to lynch Ace or BC. I think it ended up working anyways... since her non-vote on BC staved off his execution for a bit.
At this point she went hardcore into analysis... posting it about several players and coming to the conclusion that :
- Scamp - scummish
- d3 - dunno
- brownbear - scummish
A reoccuring theme in Korynne's posts is that she somewhat suspects Scaramanga... but yet she never comes out and analyzes him or does anything but prod a bit.
Conclusions: Her contributions and willingness to do analysis and generate discussion outweigh some of the odd choices/strategies at the beginning. I don't completely trust her scumdar... and she seems unsure of herself but I'm peggin' her green
Sidenote: I definitely misread your post about who to check for some reason or another the "16" was ignored by my brain... I am supposed to check up on Rage... but I've already written this so we'll see if I get to Rage tonight.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
On April 27 2010 14:20 d3_crescentia wrote:Now, let's look at motbob below: Analysis of motbob: - Rejects the BM plan - Makes a useless post about how he doesn't think about saying anything - Contributes a post about how mafia votes are likely divided - Is a negative Nancy for saying we can't win at this point - Corrects/defends himself in regard to posting times Notes on the voting record: Day 1 vote on Bill Murray, Day 2 vote on Caller, Day 3 on both Inf and BC. Seems fairly in-line with the majority vote except for Day 1, but since he hasn't really been posting enough to explain himself it's more than a little suspicious. His position on the vote list is around the middle for Days 2 and 3, but he doesn't vote for double-lynch on Day 2. Given our discussion of shooting BC occurred during the night it's more than a little troubling to me that he'd miss out on the vote. Then there's this comment: Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 14:42 motbob wrote:##Vote: CallerCaller and then Ace if Caller flips green Which suggests to me that he could have had an inkling that Caller actually *was* green (technically black). Of note here is that Scaramanga agrees with him, and Scara's also been MIA and on a number of suspicion lists. But, can we actually positively conclude anything from this information? Maybe not; he might just have an actual reason for being less active. The matter of the fact is that we're significantly short on information as it stands, so it does us better to actually accuse based on what hunches we have and analyze our responses... and it just so happens that I've got a hunch. The FoS is poking you, motbob. Your response better be damn convincing of your innocence.
I am not entirely sure what I can say to be "damn convincing" of my innocence. Every day, we've had a DT come up with a mafia target. Votes have basically cast themselves. There has honestly been zero reason to be really active so far, and today is the first day where I see myself doing a lot of analysis and getting into a lot of arguments. It is absolutely true that the only analysis I've done was disparaging Bill Murray's plan (since no one else seemed to be able to articulate why it was so bad of a plan.)
Anyway, the fact that I've been voting with the majority should not incriminate me or clear me of suspicion. I think that should be obvious. Why on earth should I need to explain my votes? In fact I DID explain my vote on Day 1 and you're using it as evidence against me lololol.
Analysis later.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
Analysis on madnessman:
On April 22 2010 04:35 madnessman wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 15:14 Caller wrote:Someone that wants to stop a "no sense" bandwagon, even though it's fairly obvious that he firstly joined one (RoL Day 1) and suspects Ace heavily, yet failed to mention the primary hilarious part, which was quite frankly that I was the one that asked for my own rolecheck. No mafia player ever would do something as risky as that. Why would I go out of my way to do that when I could have instead picked RaGe or meeple, people that were high on my suspect list? It's because it was patently obvious to me that Ace was going the "fuck y'all i'm a boss" strategy. It's an admirable strategy but clearly I either didn't anticipate I was miller or that Ace would be willing to go to such extremes In other words, ITW is playing too intelligently for someone who's a newbie to TL mafia. Either he is a super mafia genius that will sweep town to victory, or he's scum. Idk about you guys, but this sounds like terrible wifom to me. It seems pretty clear to me from Ace's tone that he: A) Can't give a shit about this game anymore and wants to get killed off, and thus is faking DT hoping to get hit B) Is a vet and thus claims DT so he'll soak a hit "for the sake of the greater good" C) Is a legit DT D) Is mafia playing a risky strategy Of course there may be other scenarios where Ace is playing major mental mind trix on everyone, but these 4 seem most likely to me. Therefore, asking for your own role check does not seem so risky if you're mafia, considering the sense of impatience and disdain in Ace's posts, the chances that he is bluffing may be pretty high. The problem though is that if caller flips town-aligned, it doesn't give us a lot of info about Ace. Caller = red: yay we'll know Ace is legit Caller = green/blue: could be scenario A where Ace is goofing around and hoping to take Caller down with him, or could be scenario D...
Like a lot of people, including me, madnessman brings up the possibility that Ace is lying and is actually mafia. I don't think this really casts much suspicion on him... but then again, I'm biased.
On April 24 2010 16:45 madnessman wrote:+ Show Spoiler +On April 24 2010 14:41 Ace wrote:Remaining players list- BrownBear
- d3_crescentia
- KF91
- iNfuNdiBuLuM
- BloodyC0bbler
- Scaramanga
- Bill Murray
- Fishball
- RaGe
- Scamp
- Ace
- meeple
- Korynne
- Falcynn
- nbtnbt5
- IntoTheWow
- Incognito
- nAi.PrOtOsS
- Osmoses
- motbob
- madnessman
With 7 Mafia currently after these 2 are scraped off that leaves 5 scum in a 19 player game. That's pretty decent odds if we had enough useful players. Alas, we must do things the hard way. Jpak's voting list: The first 12 (remember jpak needed 20 to die) BloodyC0bblerFishball Radfield KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses [NyC]HoBbes Abenson RebirthOfLeGend meeple Zona The bandwagon was started by a scummy player with ridiculous logic all game. Next set of votes: Incognito Scamp madnessman Foolishness iNfuNdiBuLuMDarthThienAn TheLardyGooserJugan So let's just step back and think for a second. We've got scum starting the wagon assuming RoL was right about his RC (and I think he is because BCs reaction was so scummy) and 2 confirmed Mafia at the end. Ok now lets combine both lists in order taking out dead players and replacing in subs. Keep in mind that the real meat of this is the votes coming after after RoL because the 3 votes before him were all non-scum. Don't worry about the guys in the beginning just yet. I'll take of that because I know most people are lazy so I'll collectively give everyone else one simple task. New list: BloodyC0bblerFishball KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses meeple BrownBear Incognito Scamp madnessman iNfuNdiBuLuMLooks so much simpler now huh? 10 players! With 2 about to be gone! So now we're down to these 8: Fishball KF91 CynanMachae d3_crescentia Osmoses meeple BrownBear Incognito Scamp madnessman ^_^. Sooo how does this all work? Simple. I want the town to go back and check out the posts->votes of Incognito, Scamp and madnessman right before the train on jpak was started by BC. Check all their posts around that time and then slightly right after the lynch. If you find anything scummy point it out. This is not meant to accuse them of being scum right off the bat. This is meant for tomorrow when the role claims come out . As for the people in the beginning of that list I'll take care of it for now. If I don't die tonight I'll illustrate how we break that list apart even easier. In answer to Ace's inquiry about the voting train on jpak, my rational at the time was such...coming out of a mafia game where there were only 9 players, having so many players this game seems like there is an overwhelming number of opportunities for mafia to hide. In the previous larger games that I've participated in, many times I didn't suspect people who were mafia at all, for the mere reason that they scarcely posted and completely slipped my mind. Thus my reasoning was that if we're going to allow a player to be completely inactive in this game, if he's mafia, he'll be able to continue to hide, and if he isn't mafia, he isn't helping the town at all, allows the true mafia to hide unnoticed, and will throughout the rest of the game attract suspicion and deter us from focusing on the true mafia... Also, with the lynch system working on a 'majority vote,' if the town doesn't lynch anybody at all/a player who hasn't posted, there is no incentive for mafia whatsoever to even post/be active because there is no THREAT or cohesiveness from the town.. I did take into account that in all the mafia games I've participated in, day one lynches have been unsuccessful at pinpointing mafia. But at the time I thought there seemed to be more to gain than to lose by not lynching him. Of course with all the modkills that are putting strain on the whole "numbers game," it's meh now. I'll be accessing le zbot archives and posting more in a bit.
Posting this because it's one of the few posts he made that weren't one liner jokes or discussions on technical matters.
On April 24 2010 17:00 madnessman wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2010 16:41 IntoTheWow wrote:
Scaramanga, motbob and Roffles have barely posted while they have been active on TL in other areas. I know everyone can be busy, but I'm curious on what you guys think of the current situation (no jersey shore jokes please). I didn't even think of making a joke until you went along and suggested it. Now..must..resist... In response to your observation, I don't know whether being active on other areas in TL and not posting in mafia thread is indicative of being scum... I would think that if you were mafia, you would be paranoid of people noticing you lurking in the mafia thread when you're obviously around, and would therefore be careful not to post in other areas if you're not posting in the mafia thread. Just my opinion though.. I could be wrong; they could be mafia and just not be as paranoid a player as I was when I was mafia, or then again just town-aligned players feeling lazy and having nothing to contribute... Basically I'm saying that while it shouldn't clear them from suspicion, I don't think such actions should be the CAUSE of suspicion/basis of FoS.
Posting this because he's supporting me Also it's his last post in some time, made three days ago, on the 24th.
I cannot draw a conclusion on madnessman. He's showing neither scum tells nor town tells. Well, that may not be entirely true. In my experience, someone who's only posts with content are on technical matters or general mafia game theory are usually scum. People like that are "contributing without contributing," pointing out indisputable facts instead of speculating about whether or not specific people are scum or not. If you look over madnessman's post history, not once, I think, has he said "this person looks town to me" or "this person looks mafia."
The reason I don't think this is necessarily a scum tell this game is because I've been doing the same thing! I've already explained why, too: this game has had a lynch target confirmed by either a DT or an assassin on most days. No need to make leaps of logic if town is getting sure lynches.
Anyway, I definitely would not recommend madnessman for a lynch today. Surely there are better targets.
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Belgium9942 Posts
Ok, I'll analyze Scaramanga then.
On April 18 2010 18:47 Scaramanga wrote:
Been a tad busy sorry guys, my brothers been in the hospital for tonsillitus so im catching up now
Egh, could be bullshit, could not be bullshit. All I know is that he made another 100 posts to this day on TL after this one.
On April 18 2010 18:57 Scaramanga wrote:
Oh and lets lynch BC L O L
Useless
On April 18 2010 20:35 Scaramanga wrote:
Bill are you retarded? If someone is an assassin and they need to kill the other assassin why would they kill who you asked, they are more likely to just kill someone randomly or not at all, worst plan ever
Repeats the same objection a lot of people before him raised
Useless, but interesting. Might have been protecting himself against a BM lynch on Day 1, cause thats just all this post accomplishes.
On April 18 2010 20:57 Scaramanga wrote:Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 20:42 Ace wrote:On April 18 2010 20:18 Osmoses wrote:
Ace, if newbies weren't allowed, there'd be no games, period. Your bitching doesn't help anyone get better. Actually I wasn't even talking about the newbies. But if you want to be included in that list it's fine by me. I thought you'd be number one on that list ace ^^
Worthless
On April 19 2010 22:06 Scaramanga wrote:Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 09:00 Roffles wrote:
Yeah, just gonna chime in a little here. I disagree on lynching an inactive. I'd rather gamble and kill off someone suspicious than take a guess at an inactive. As someone earlier mentioned, if people are inactive, then as the game drags on, people aren't going to take their word at all. Why not just gamble now and take a shot at someone who seems suspicious now? Go big or go home. Games in the past that ive played all point to lynching big players that look suspicious pays off some of the time but most turn out town, then you're left with inactives which allows mafia to sit there, do fuck all and get away with it
The interesting thing about this post was that it happened after Radfield accused TheLardyGooser.
On April 19 2010 23:01 Scaramanga wrote:
Jesus fucking christ, reading through this is like pulling teeth, I'm voting to lynch Jugan as his non senseical crap looks exactly like what 0cz3z used to do to confuse the town when he was mafia and i suggest that everyone else dose the same
Edit: I would just like to let you all know that watching one piece >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> reading this shit
This was the post right after that. Proposing a new lynch candidate after thelardygooser suspicion.
On April 20 2010 14:59 Scaramanga wrote:Show nested quote +On April 20 2010 12:00 Jugan wrote:On April 20 2010 11:51 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:Jugan- I wasn't the one who filed a complaint against you. If if makes you feel like more of a man, however, I could start complaining to everyone about how emotionally damaged you've made me, and how I'm clearly a shell of my former self. Anything to make you feel better. Nah man, when you insult someone, you have to be ready to accept an insult back. I'm sorry some people couldn't handle some "shady" insults, I just figured it was better some things other people are saying: "Okay basically you're going around sucking peoples dicks" or "Fuck all of you. You are all noobs." or " This game is shit. lets watch one piece" If me calling you a donkey truly hurt your feelings then I'm sorry for calling you a donkey. I just felt you were completely ignorant to events that transgressed and I sought to rectify it. I didn't call you a donkey to make my dick feel bigger, I called you a donkey because I felt you were acting like one. I doubt ANYONE complained about me, and if someone actually did, I apologize to them. However, they could have told me directly if they had a problem with me. I personally think that flamewheel is just trying to shape the game into something HE thinks is fun, when he is in fact ruining a lot of the fun aspects of it (especially being too lazy to start the game off with clues). It's just sad he's making me into the scapegoat, but that's okay, my posting has been a bit abrasive. I never said this game is shit i said that reading through the thread is like pulling teeth and less enjoyable than watching one piece majorly due to the fact that every 3rd post was you trolling and talking utter shit, let me find some examples Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 08:52 Jugan wrote:
I just wanna say i got the role that i usually am guys. i wanna see the clues already :O so bored Show nested quote +On April 18 2010 11:08 Jugan wrote:
i say we lynch the KF91 guy. he's annoying. Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 07:18 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 07:12 Ace wrote:
That last post just wreaks of scum. Ok Caller have it your way. I'll just chill for a bit, let your posts sit there for oh lets say ~2-3 hours and then come back and post a compilation analysis of them. The idea of you making a bet based on lynching someone else to prove something about another player when none of that is even in question right now just dug your grave.
I'll wait 3 hours. why not make it 4 or 5. or even 6 or 7. or maybe 3... 3 days! Wtf is this? Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 10:13 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 10:08 Osmoses wrote:
2. Ace and Caller are supposed to know what they're doing but they're shitting all over each other. I suspect at least one of them may be scum. I think it's just two big egos duking it out. The power of the E-PENIS! note: this post went up while I was crafting my previous one. Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 10:58 Jugan wrote:
except that one of them was in a response to a post that was made while I was crafting my original post.
Which I might add I NOTED in that post. GG. Offensive gging? What? Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 12:02 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 12:00 Incognito wrote:
Didn't expect to play a game right now, been busy over the past month, but was asked to sub in. Anyway, just started reading the thread. But I have thoughts from what I've seen so far. Expect a large post coming up within the next two hours. yay <3 incognito. I think the plan should be to lynch that KF91 guy. Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 12:09 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 12:06 IntoTheWow wrote:On April 19 2010 12:02 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 12:00 Incognito wrote:
Didn't expect to play a game right now, been busy over the past month, but was asked to sub in. Anyway, just started reading the thread. But I have thoughts from what I've seen so far. Expect a large post coming up within the next two hours. yay <3 incognito. I think the plan should be to lynch that KF91 guy. Reason? reason: I don't like him, and he hates goats. Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 12:36 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 12:21 IntoTheWow wrote:Hard to take you seriously  My vote is as series as it gets, mate. Show nested quote +On April 19 2010 13:27 Jugan wrote:On April 19 2010 12:55 IntoTheWow wrote:
Ok I went throught the list of players and searched this thread for posts by them. I no particular order, people who make no posts, or only one liners in it:
KF91 (barely posted, always 1 or 2 lines)
RebirthOfLegend
Jugan (all 1 liners)
Scaramanga (couple of 1 liners, pre-game)
RaGe (only sign up post)
[NyC]HoBbes (2 posts, with 1-3 lines)
Fulgrim (1 post, 2 lines)
JadeFist
krndandaman
nbtnbt5 (only 1 post asking how get info on day 1)
Incognito (just subbed in, said he would make a big post)
love1another (only 1 or 2 posts, and he already voted)
jpak (only 1 post: "see you on day 1" when it was already day 1)
motbob (only 2 posts, 1-2 lines)
Ok, so I think picking one of these guys is the best course. If they have any previous server experienced, or were active in other parts of the forums but missed this, anything that's making them be quiet, etc.Incorrect. Go read again, sir. Frankly, I'm disappointed in your analysis. Additionally, a lot of the people you say "posts 1 liners" in fact offer insight and analysis that you either failed to read or are blatantly ignoring it in order to try and bolster your "point". I think the best course of action would be to lynch YOU as you are trying to get people to support your idea through false information and/or faulty logic. ITW's analysis was actually very good but considering he was pointing you out just like i did you called it bullshit And the list goes on and on and on and on and fucking on AND YOU WONDER WHY I FIND IT SO HARD TO READ THIS THREAD. I've said my reasoning that mafia hide behind this crap and confuse the town, Ocz3z did it all the time. People have to deal with this rather than finding more reds so i think that you should be lynched to improve our chances of finding more reds
Further Jugan hatred. It's a good excuse to make posts that don't make you look inactive on the first day, but actually have no clues contained in them at all.
He never comments on analysis, he just calls people out on practical issues.
On April 20 2010 19:58 Scaramanga wrote:
Hello? is anybody home?
I'm starting to believe Scaramanga didn't make a single Mafia game related post in this thread.
On April 21 2010 17:46 Scaramanga wrote:
If we use the double lynch who are we going to use it on, theres no point in using it if we have one target and we just waste it on an inactive.
Theres been names thrown around the thread in the last few pages of who is scum, i'd like to see BC and those who are doing analysis to setup and suggest who to lynch or what two people should be lynched if the double lynch vote goes through
"I'd like other people to suggest who to lynch in case our double lynch goes through"
Most. Useless. Townie. Ever.
On April 21 2010 18:45 Scaramanga wrote:
Love it that im the only australia (so i think) so little people here
Anyway Korynne why did you do analysis on protoss when even you say that he's no threat to us even if he is mafia. I also wanna know why you voted for double lynch, reasoning and who we should hit, this is something pretty important and you've given no reasoning
Neither have you.
On April 21 2010 20:28 Scaramanga wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 19:42 Korynne wrote:Well he just seemed fishy when I first started reading the thread.He seemed readable, whereas people like Ace really confuse me. >.< I was just doing analysis, didn't know what I would come up with as I went along, and I made my conclusion at the end. I didn't analyze anyone that I did not write about. Sure, if I knew ahead of time then I might not do an analysis on Protoss, but he seemed manageable when I was reading so I'm just trying my best to contribute. I definitely will be watching him, but I think if he's the last mafia left there really isn't much harm and we could take him out easily, whereas someone with more experience would be more scary. So given that I don't have much against protoss and he doesn't seem like a great player, my final conclusion is just to keep an eye on him and focus on bigger threats. Like I said, I'm new at this, so if someone else manages to find something real on protoss after I brought him to everyone's attention then I've managed to contribute my part. Do you know already who you wish to lynch tomorrow Scara? I personally don't. But I see kind of two lines of people in focus right now, Caller/Ace/etc. and BC/RoL/etc. So I think it'll be reasonably likely that we can find someone suspicious tied to both of those camps, and therefore a double lynch would speed things up a little in terms of what information we would have regarding those two camps. Why have you not contributed much Scara? It seems like all you've done is get in a fight with Jugan, and seem condescending overall and focus on how the quality of the posts suck. You keep asking questions, but where's your analysis of anything? Games in the past that ive played all point to lynching big players that look suspicious pays off some of the time but most turn out town, then you're left with inactives which allows mafia to sit there, do fuck all and get away with it So from this game I'm assuming Caller is a "big player," of course this could be an incorrect assumption since I have not gone through previous games to see what Caller is like, but he certainly gives off that impression. So scara in your first vote you said: ##vote caller
Where are you caller, if you post i'll change my vote but inactiveness leads to death So you voted for a big player AND an inactive...I don't get it. You then retract your vote because you didn't read carefully, and just throw out names randomly while stating you haven't finished reading yet... I NEED TO READ THE RULES LOOOOOOOOOOOL ## vote for BloodyC0bbler LOL sorry guys i'll change it after ive read everything im up to page 22 And then finally vote for Jugan, basically because he clutters up the thread rather than you think he is mafia. Now today you just bandwagon vote Caller, implying that you need no reasoning because motbob already said it. I've given more reason to vote Caller than you have. So Scara, could you please explain your reasoning, rather than asking other people to do so for you? There you go, thats all i was asking for, not just analysis but some suggestions aswell. See i have no idea who to vote to lynch, i might vote for Ace if caller turns out green but im not sure whats best for us in this situation hence why im calling for suggestions not just "oh check this out he might be scummy" like whats been happening. Yeah i havent really contributed that much because i dont really know what to do . I can't do awesome analysis of clues (not relevent to this game but going off prior games) or behaviour and pin reds like many others can do. The way i see my self contributing to the thread is giving my two cents where nessessary which mostly is about keeping the town clear and heading in the right direction. I felt that the posts from jugan were majorly cluttering the thread and detracting efforts from finding actual reds, note i clarified and explained that its not the posting overall that i said "sucks" it was jugans and jugans posts only that "suck". And im trying to contribute now, as you can see in the pages leading up to this people are doing good analysis but none of those who are doing analysis are calling for lynches and very limited ammount of town are giving their thoughts on this, thats why im calling for most of the town to come out so we can head in the right direction that most of us agree with, i want to make sure that one of our most important assets, the double lynch is used properly. The reason that im not analysing or giving my thoughs on analysis is because im very very very bad, ask BC, ver, qatol hell 99% of people that have played mafia with me would say im one of the worst. I feel that any of my "analysis" if you want to call it that would just detract attention from good people like BC, Ace, caller, incog, ROL etc, hence me not posting analysis or my thoughts on it, ive been doing this after my first game of mafia. And in regards to my votes I thought it was pretty obvious when i voted that i wasnt done reading the thread, i voted for caller because where i was up to in the thead he hadn't posted once. After a few pages i wanted to change my vote, changed it to abstain but i didnt read the rules, so i changed it to a good friend of mine BC (for the lols ) as a filler till i was done reading the thread and could make a proper decision to who should be lynched, and i felt like that should have been jugan I voted caller because reading through the thread when someone claiming to be a DT calls out someone as being scum, you're going to catch at least one mafia. If Ace is a DT then we get caller as mafia, if not we know that Ace is mafia getting rid of caller. Thats why i said in the votes thread, what motbob said which refered to "Caller and then Ace if Caller flips green" So theres my train of thought in asking everyone for their reasoning, thoughts, analysis. Mine isnt going to do the town any good and at the moment with the main players clashing heads without sugesting something town can't move forward as well as we can
It's the "i'm new and suck too much" excuse
On April 22 2010 22:02 Scaramanga wrote:
Hi flamewheel, hows running the thread going?
MOST. USELESS. TOWNIE. EVER.
On April 24 2010 18:36 Scaramanga wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2010 18:07 Incognito wrote:Fishball: Its day 3, you're a troll, and you gotta come out now. Thanks. Oh also one interesting thing to note is that you comment saying the zbot archive is awesome. Why is this so? Either you just threw this out there to fake activity, or you're actually using it to do analysis. Take your pick. Bill Murray: At first he made me think he was just playing usual and just be ignored. But his posting has dramatically declined. Busy? Thinks he's in the clear? Not his spammy usual self anymore. But then again, its really hard to read him. If he's mafia, he may be receiving orders from a strong mafia player (BC). Lets see if his posting deteriorates even more after BC is offed. He's been acting inconsistently though. No. 1 RC suspect imo. Scaramanga: You've been useless enough, been called out enough times on it, and haven't responded. Moreover, you seem to be active elsewhere but not here. You've been around long enough to know what is expected. motbob: motbob is inconsistent. Besides his early useless posts, he posts this:
On April 21 2010 15:49 motbob wrote:
I don't want to get modkilled, so here I am, posting. I think town is pretty much on the right track so there is no need to delve into anyone's posts or anything yet.
But only two posts later, he says: On April 24 2010 10:46 motbob wrote:
....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think?
So the town is on the right track, but then only two posts later we're doomed? What happened? I'm sure the night kills didn't change your mind that much...your posting is inconsistent, and you just seem to be stirring the pot and trying to avoid discussion when possible. Then, you pop up and say we're doomed, likely because you want to out all the power roles. Given that I still think there's at least 2 medics in there, that would help you a lot if you were mafia, right? Trying to push the boat in the direction you want? Seems like it to me. Falcynn: I thought you could've been mafiassassin given that you were talking a lot about assassins in your early posts. But now that all the assassins are gone, I guess that clears a few things up. Other than that, advocates a randomlynch, posts more useless information, then responds to me. Then your posts really start to slide. Defending your terrible play, admitting to active lurking, and even more defense of your terrible play. I wish townies would just stop defending their terrible play. Either way, I don't think you're a townie, so whatever. In response to your post, I had an inkling AFJ was an assassin, and felt bored last night. Sadly, he didn't bother following through and choosing to kill you. If you tried to kill him to stop his hit from coming through, it wouldn't work, all night actions happen simultaneously. So no, I won't use that excuse, but then again, I don't really need to. d3: hmm the Caller-is-innocent vibes may have been coming from reading my list of innocents. Blindly following me? Or having a subconscious bias of Caller's innocence because of my statement? Other than that, he seems to be posting like normal from past games. I like my other suspects better. Although d3 hasn't been extremely helpful. Hmm...I seem to remember that he is usually more technical and planning-oriented. Didn't see too much of that in his current posts. Scamp: probably town. I like RoL(?)'s and meeple's latest analysis of him. yeah, he voted jpak, but I don't know how much weight that holds for me. His mention of TheLardyGooser doesn't seem a mafia oriented action. And even though he's been around for a while, I don't think he would be one to accuse his own mafia member off the bat. Although given the weird activities going around lately, I wouldn't be surprised if the mafia had a solid player around trying to coach the weaker ones. (Would make sense since BC has been so inactive all game). Anyway, paper due on monday morning, so I will probably be less active until then. Looks like not much is happening right now though. Im active elsewhere? care to elaborate? Again i'll say im reading and responding to best keep the town moving forward
egh
On April 24 2010 21:04 Scaramanga wrote:
A wild Zona appears!
egh
On April 26 2010 21:22 Scaramanga wrote:
I hope our vigis hit some good people
egh
On April 27 2010 14:49 Scaramanga wrote:
Oh god, not ace, we needed him so badly
egh
[/QUOTE]
TL;DR: Scaramanga is either the most useless townie ever, or another Mafia pretending to be inactive and "too bad to help the town". The only time he made an accusation was when TLG got accused, but it was just calling Jugan out on his terrible posting.
Conclusion? If he's not mafia I'd prefer not playing a Mafia game with him ever again, cause this shit should not be tolerated by town.
I actually believe the chances of him being Mafia are decently high, but I don't believe it would be a correct lynch, since his alliance would provide us with almost zero information.
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FREEAGLELAND26780 Posts
On April 27 2010 14:23 Ace wrote:
what happened to the modkills?
It's almost as if everybody followed the rules for the day 3 cycle?
On April 27 2010 11:52 BrownBear wrote:
Well, dicks everywhere.
Roflcopters.
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Well, I was supposed to analyze Ace, but that wasn't really necessary it seems. So I'll analyze Scamp, I'll try to have it up in between classes today.
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Belgium9942 Posts
I changed my mind
Scaramanga is mafia.
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16. nAi.PrOtOsS
He started off the game attracting quite a bit of suspicion, but now has almost entirely been forgotten. If I'm not mistaken, this is the reason why he was initially thought to be scum, by Caller in particular: On April 19 2010 06:32 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I thought Caller made a lot of sense, members of the mafia would want to post frequently early on so they are not lynched for being inactive but they also don't want to actually say much in their posts because the more they say the more chance of being proven scum. This post is in response to Caller's about how mafia will try to be active but basically post "filler" comments. Foolishness lols at how ironic nai's own post is (as it is the epitome of a filler post), to which nai replies:On April 19 2010 06:36 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
I see it too much also you have to consider inexperienced players (such as myself) feel pressure to post early on so they don't get lynched for being inactive. This is nai's first game, so it is easily possible that he posted that way because he's new and thus isn't unaware of the severity of this game.. how vet's in this game have eyes like hawks and such a simple remark can heavily implicate him. But being new should NOT be an excuse for being ridiculous.. even if you're new you should exercise a modicum of reason/thoughtfulness before you post? Anyhow, I am willing to let these remarks slide. But these, on the other hand... Look at the sequence of the following posts (these happen one right after the other): On April 20 2010 02:59 RaGe wrote:
We really need a change of attitude here imo.
I propose a town-wide ban (with lynching if not lived by) on accusations/analysis of previous posts until Day 2, and a lynch of the currently least active, most voted person RebirthOfLegend
Because let's face it, we're not going to be able to have enough of us agree on an already suspicious person to be able to lynch him on day 1, and we're only helping mafia decide which townies to snipe atm.
This would help us focus on getting a decent plan together for the rest of the game. On April 20 2010 03:09 TheLardyGooser wrote:
I second this. On April 20 2010 03:14 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Vote changed to RebirthOfLegend because he has not made a post yet in this game, and I completly agree with voting off the least active person to begin with. Also I think a consensus may be met on this, as opposed to others. If that isn't blatant bandwagoning by Goose and nai, I don't know what is. We already know Goose to be red. People grow suspicious of Rage, and nai replies: On April 20 2010 03:42 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
Inactive* I really hate not being able to edit lol
Also how is Rage red? It makes sense to vote off somone who is not active, because the less they talk the less chance we have to learn their allegiances.
Question: Do we have to vote somone off? or is it just better to not vote anyone off because the chances are we will lynch an innocent? As soon as suspicion is placed on Rage following the above sequence of events, nai defends Rage's strategy. But then he begins to question whether we should even vote anybody off, when he was previously advocating a lynch the inactives strategy. Could this be in response to Rage attracting suspicion, and him getting worried that Rage may be lynched? Meh, I could just be reading into this. But such actions would definitely be consistent with what we know about nai as a player (new, somewhat thoughtless..)
After this, nai makes a terrible argument that since caller was rolechecked red, he (nai) must obviously NOT be mafia. He proceeds to voice that he didn't realize mafia would be so much work and thinking, and that he isn't going to post except to defend himself because no matter what he says, it is overanalyzed and suspicion is put upon him. He also makes this dramatic post: On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:
To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled. He has since then rarely posted, and more or less disappeared.
My conclusion? nai is either a thoughtless town player with terribly bad play, who doesn't realize that sitting back and only posting to defend himself won't help the town or prove to anybody that he's town-aligned, or otherwise he is a mafia member who made some scummy actions, received a lot of suspicion, and as a result, has blended into the background in an attempt to be forgotten, perhaps at the prompting of his team mates (to which end, he has largely been successful). Until nai posts more, it is difficult to tell (as he doesn't have previous game experience I could compare his current posting with).. Hopefully this post will nudge him into action. But as it stands I would like to caution the town NOT to forget about nai and let him sit back and do nothing, because if he's mafia, he'll be able to slip through the whole game unnoticed without having to do anything.
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An appendment: imo, nai is a decent lynch candidate, but not a particularly strong one. He hasn't helped the town thus far, so I would like to see how he analyzes the person 16 down from him. As he has yet to do analysis of any kind this game, I hope his analysis will be telling on whether he's mafia or town-aligned.
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EPT
