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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.> I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie. My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons. I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On April 23 2010 15:29 Korynne wrote: nai.protoss. D= If you are town-aligned, GIVEN HOW BAD WE ARE DOING RIGHT NOW PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE DON'T GO KILL YOURSELF. >.> I don't care what Incognito says, a townie voting with someone "reliable" is better than a dead townie. My proposal is to SPREAD OUT "newbs" to vote with people the town generally consider to be innocent (Ace for example right now). I see no reason at all why this could be worse than having them die or follow stupid bandwagons. I propose that nai.protoss votes with Ace tomorrow. If you do that then we lose one critical element of information - that is, vote list analysis. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 15:22 Incognito wrote: Oh wait nvm. You didn't analyze Rage. You just said you didn't suspect him as much anymore (why?). For a couple reasons, but I didn't see faults in the way he defended himself... and although I'm still keeping my eye on him, other than his careful posting I didn't see any major scumminess. Also, I've lost some faith in Caller's abilities to pick someone red after the absurd way he attacked me. "I will make an effort to poke the bear and get some information." - Ok. Maybe I'm being a little too harsh. But from someone who posts so much, I expected more from you. I don't post that much anymore... I've quieted down tons lately, and you can see that by my low activity everywhere on the site. Besides your one post with 2 pieces of analysis, your posting is relatively useless. I get the nbtnbt5 analysis. How long did that take? If you find nothing conclusive, you don't go try to find some other information that is? Yes, Abenson may be dead now, but it doesn't change the fact that your analysis was not very insightful. Non-insightful posting is rampant... its really hard to distill truths from someone's posts where emotions aren't really conveyed that much. Still, I'm not copping out there and I'll admit that it wasn't so useful. Where did you post vig instructions? [QUOTE]On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote: [QUOTE]On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote: So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan? I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post. I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how. It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives. Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university.[/QUOTE] I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On April 23 2010 13:21 meeple wrote: I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one. Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red. Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through. Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk. We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch. Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia. On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch. Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy). So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc. I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say. If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats. Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply. I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now. Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO). | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On April 23 2010 15:52 Korynne wrote: Well sure that's the ideal situation. But if nai.protoss feels like quitting surely we'd prefer a brainless townie to a resigned dead townie. If we run out of better suspects we can lynch him, but for the meantime I can't see how it would hurt the town to keep him around as votes. I think this is safer than having him vote someone "randomly" because he's "new" and "doesn't know who to vote for" etc. I mean same goes for people like Scaramanga, who says he's bad at analyzing so he'll just hear what other people have to say. If they're not going to contribute, we should at least make sure their actions are controlled by townies, rather than randomness. Given that they are "bad" players, I don't think having people like that being the last 2 mafia would hurt us terribly as lynching them instead of bigger threats. Of course, if someone's giving intelligent analysis one game and playing dumb the next, then this will not apply. I am in no way discouraging analysis and input, but if you /have/ to play that card then I suggest you follow someone significantly townie and probably a good player, aka Ace right now. Also, this means that if we're at critical mass, we assume them to be mafia and not assume them to vote with someone else(LYLO). No, its better if we have a resigned dead townie than a brainless townie. Allowing brainless townies encourages mafia to pretend to be brainless townies. Its practically impossible to tell a brainless townie from a brainless townie-looking mafia. And hidden brainless mafia are worse than one dead townie. I did say that we have better suspects than him, didn't I? Its not that hard to read the analysis (he has been doing that apparently) and pick which analysis you agree with. And when you state your reasons why you are voting for someone, don't hide behind the cover of following someone or not having enough information. Own your analysis (even if its stolen from someone else). Don't cushion yourself with fluff words or distance yourself from the analysis. Embrace the analysis, and pretend its yours and you'll be fine. Yes, people like Scaramanga also have to step up. I was just using nai.Protoss as an example. There are plenty of others out there who need to step up. I do not endorse random following. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 15:52 Incognito wrote: Oh I didn't see that. Well you could have pointed to that earlier! We have at most one vigilante, maybe none. This person should use his kill to kill BC. Which will be able to tell us something about RoL, giving us information to use for our double lynch. Why shouldn't you randomly kill someone based on your own research? We already have narrowed down a pool, BC and RoL. Unless you want to waste both lynches on these two characters, one of these people must die now. If you were to do your own research on who to kill, you have all the information from the past 2 days. Then, during our Double lynch, we are forced to kill BC/RoL to get us our 1 mafia. On the other hand, if you kill BC right now, we know whether or not to trust RoL, giving us the flexibility of not killing RoL in the event that BC is mafia or miller. Furthermore, our second lynch will be more accurate since we have the information from the past 2 days PLUS all the information from the night's killings. By making the no-brainer kill now, we can wait until we receive more information for the more accurate lynch. Medics. Don't follow one person to protect. Follow two. Flip a coin between protecting Ace and me (unless anyone else has a better suggestion on another useful person). That way, the mafia can't really be sure that they can successfully kill either Ace or me. This makes them scared to hit either of us, effectively doubling your protection powers (unless the mafia is really ballsy). So sorry, meeple, I retract my statement that you're being useless. This post was actually useful. I disagree with some parts of it, but it shows effort. Bravo. Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it. I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it. Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Ace RoL Korynne Scamp Incognito's list: Incognito Ace So Ace, and who will be the second person that a medic should coin flip? | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:05 Korynne wrote: So uh, RoL's list: Ace RoL Korynne Scamp Incognito's list: Incognito Ace So Ace, and who will be the second person that a medic should coin flip? Well both are being selfish and putting themselves on there... but Incog's willingness to somewhat listen to reason and RoL's unproven nature makes me think that Incog is a better candidate. The others, Scamp and you... unless someone can show me otherwise haven't done so much as to warrant themselves critical to town survival. Alternatively, we can weaken the protection and extend it to three people. With the same randomization that incog suggests. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead). Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:05 meeple wrote: Ace and Incog imo are ok people to protect for now... although flipping a coin won't really avoid the potential for double protecting whatever it randomizes it. I agree about the BC vigi kill... but I want to encourage people, especially those in powerful roles like medics/vigi's to be questioning things in the thread and not following so blindly. If you've made a solid logical case for BC's death (which you have) then there's no reason for a vigi to not follow it. Now, if it turns out the RoL really is trustable... then it kinda thins out the protection again... but then again if we have two medics, we should be able to cover 3 people pretty nicely and in this case we should use the randomization method suggested by incog to remove personal bias and increase overall protection of the three. Actually we want the possibility of both medics protecting the same people. That way the mafia are forced to use 3 entire hits to make sure one of us are dead. | ||
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:10 Korynne wrote: Considering how low we are on townies, I really don't think having a dead townie is good for our causes, especially since mafia KP is so high. I guess we'll just wait until tomorrow morning to decide what to do, but one dead townie is one step closer to losing. One inactive townie lynch right now is 1.5 steps closer to losing (.5 being a 50% chance we could've lynched a mafia instead). Anyway, no point arguing about this now when we have other things to do. nai.protoss, do what you see fit and JUSTIFY YOURSELF AS BEST AS YOU CAN WHEN DOING SO. Of course one dead townie is bad for our cause and advances our loss. I am not advocating that said townie should just die. I am advocating that said townie defend his viewpoint like I stated a couple posts back. One alive blindly following mafioso is infinite steps closer to losing. Because we'll just assume he's a blindly following townie and never lynch him. Yes, here I am contrasting your proposal to what will actually happen. But there is a third option. Which I have already explained. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
Can we all discuss and settle on a 3rd candidate for medic protection? | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:16 Korynne wrote: I am not advocating my own protection, this is my first game so I don't have all that much confidence in my deductions until I see the results of the game. Can we all discuss and settle on a 3rd candidate for medic protection? Well... should we be protecting RoL until he proves himself? Besides, I dunno if we should be spreading protection thin until we need to. But if we were going to pick a third, is there another option other than RoL? I mean... nobody pops into my mind... | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
[Protect randomly between 2 people] 50% chance both people are protected, 25% chance of each getting protected twice. Alternatively from mafia perspective: 1 hit has 25% chance of killing someone. 2 hits has a 75% chance of killing someone. 3 hits is guaranteed to kill someone. [Protect randomly between 3 people] 33% chance that someone get's double protected, 67% chance that two people get randomly protected. Alternatively, from mafia perspective: 1 hit has a 44% chance of killing someone. 2 hits has a 89% chance of killing someone. 3 hits is guaranteed to kill someone. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
If RoL is mafia, then Ace is still relatively protected. Incognito doesn't seem /that/ useful to protect. My vote for medics is for tossing a coin between Ace and RoL. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Vig, kill BC. --If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso. --If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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