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The thing is, I have already stated that I believe BC's behavior points to him being innocent, as he so openly railed against Ace. If you look at the circumstances of RoL's rolecheck, it was a lot different than Ace's rolecheck because Ace checked a player that he had publicly suspected Day 1, and Caller was unlucky enough to be the miller. Combined with Caller's already odd play it was enough to get people to vote for him. However it seems like theres a lot more doubt in the town regarding rol/bc. I mean I guess it's totally possible that BC is also a Miller, and RoL does have a point that his play doesn't make a whole lot of sense from the mafia perspective (though is this a bit of a wifom? it sort of sounds like it). Korynne has similar sentiments expressed in her post above.
Basically i think the plan tonight is to hope our medics are playing up to speed. Vigi's should hit whoever they think is suspicious (i consider Caller's suspect list a decent starting point, minus ITW who i feel has shown himself to be a pretty solidly town player, and add Scaramanga). Hopefully DT's dont check any more(?) Millers.
Also i don't think ALL vigis should shoot tonight like Ace said, considering its a 1 time power and the outcome of tomorrows lynch could set up some good vigi targets for tomorrows night. Of course there's no way to coordinate this, so if you're a vigi with no idea who to hit it might be smarter to wait instead of risking your 1 shot - town is pretty much on the verge of death here.
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On April 23 2010 12:58 IntoTheWow wrote:
So, besides lynching BC, is there any other plan?
I see lots of people saying Vigis should hit, but who? I would look into some of the silent guys :/ The ones posting, we can read, but we can't anything with people who barely post.
I know this was brought up on like day 1, but back then people said that silent players would die later on easily, but I don't see how.
It would suck to kill our townies if the mafia happens to be hiding beside inactives.
Have to do some reading on the previous pages, but I wanted to post since I'm going to be away all day tomorrow due to university.
I don't think there's another plan in the works as of now... but yet I'm not sure if everyone is even on board with this one.
Tonight we have at most 2 vigilantes, and probably just one. These people should use their kills to extract as much information as possible. Seeing as we have a double lynch tommorow, we need to have targets, otherwise it just goes to waste. Hopefully the vigi's are people who are currently active in the thread and willing to research a target, instead of someone who's really inactive
Ace's plan to hit BC tonight and use that information for tommorow's lynch's is good, but it's always good to form your own opinions and not take someone else's and following it blindly. Do your homework and look into his posting history and see if it matches up with your own ideas. Also, consider how much information you get from the kill. You might be like 90% certain someone is red, but if their death doesn't help us spend the double lynch tommorow we might end up killing off townies, even if you do your justice and nab a red.
Mafia can be hiding in the inactives... and it's always a threat, but the problem is even if we get one it doesn't help lead us to their compatriots and win the game. Eventually their voting history and short posts of encouragement/discouragement will lead to them being found out once we have a bit more red blood to sift through.
Medics... your job is alot tougher, since you're kinda playing a feint game with the mafia. I would encourage Ace's protection, since he seems to be a detective and those skills are invaluable later on. On the other hand, the mafia seeing this will be less likely to actually hit Ace and your save will be wasted. But if you don't protect Ace and you go for someone else... then if the mafia call your bluff and hit Ace well its a big loss(assuming blue-ness). If the red had less KP I would say faking the reds out is more viable, since they would be less likely to waste a hit on someone who's probably protected. Given that they have 4 KP, it's not such a big loss to them if the hit is blocked, whereas getting rid of a town detective would be a big payoff... so perhaps worth the risk.
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On April 23 2010 12:40 BrownBear wrote:
Dammit. After tonight, unless we get some lucky medics, AND assuming the Assassins don't attack tonight, we're going to be at 16 to 7, which means if we don't get at least 1 mafia tomorrow during the day, we're done. I don't want to say who the medics should protect, cause smart mafia just wont attack those people, too, so it's really down to their intelligence and their ability to predict the mafia's moves.
Tonight might be a good time for vigilantes to perform some hits... or for Assassins to spend one of their nghtkills on people they know to be Mafia. Why? Because if you don't, the game might very well end before you have a chance to fulfill your objectives.
This is actually a ploy we used in previous games to create a pseudo medic protection.
We would create a list of people we think should be protected and the mafia would avoid hitting that list because there is a chance they could waste a hit on a protected person. While the medic could just ignore that list and protect someone else. Its a type of wifom to hurt the mafia in making a decision on who to hit, and to try to keep who we want alive.
So just for the sake of an example, I would recommend medics to protect the following people tonight.
Ace
RoL
Korynne
Scamp
This list is alright, I Am sure I could find better candidates but is something to consider when deciding who to protect.
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On April 21 2010 13:37 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote:Show nested quote +On April 21 2010 13:30 Incognito wrote:
Since I am going to be absent for the next 1.5 days, I thought I'd just post my thoughts so hopefully you could get a general idea of where to look. Please don't ignore analyzing the guy underneath you though!
(Semi-)active suspicious people:
tree.hugger is against BM's assassin plan but wants to discuss it. Is this because he wants the town to go on the wrong track/get distracted from their real objectives? Tries to derail the thread by continuing to talk about assassins...is he an assassin?? Or just a mafioso using that as an excuse to find something to talk about? Posts other useless information, and lately posts that he agrees with foolishness and me that there is enough information to work off of. He also complains about the vets not helping, but shows no intention of actually helping.
RebirthOfLegenD: Promises reds and results. Fine, its only day 2. But he posted recently and all it was was a *cry* blues have died post. Not the greatest activity there. Planning to do something anytime soon? Responds to assassin discussion. I'm glad BC pointed out to us about how BM's plan produced results. Hopefully I won't over do it on this factor, but if we add up all the factors, it might give us something. Other than that, RoL has been pretty useless.
RaGe: Tries to tell us to random lynch on day 1. I get it now, its not that terrible but not that great. Overall, just tells us nothing in general. He then proceeds to get attacked and has produced nothing useful since. Only defense of himself. Which isn't really pro-town.
Scamp: Talks about assassins. Pops in to say useless stuff. Only one semi-decent post, which just parrots the attacks on TheLardyGooser. Debating whether I should have put him here or lower on the list, but I don't see any redeeming value here yet.
Abenson: Talks about assassins. And that's pretty much it. This should probably be just counted as inactivity, but whatever.
Caller: Rolechecked red, and has been making some pretty loose intuition-based attacks on ppl. No strong solid evidence here, so nothing of redeeming value. I guess the rolecheck does it for me. The only reason I could see for Ace lying like that was if he was mafia. I don't think he's that "L"ish to sabotage his own team, so he's probably telling the truth if town. Since its not exactly the best time to sac a mafia member (a mafia death would mean a KP drop), its highly unlikely that Ace really is mafia in this situation imo.
Falcynn: Useless chatterbox.
nai.Protoss: Posts when accused. Nothing more. Not too high profile but someone to look out for.
madnessman: just barely makes the cut...on the suspicious side. Not too useful, but then again, not too useless either.
Just purely inactive - and therefore should be prodded and abused so they can be useful:
Scaramanga
Fishball
Koryone: New player, but claims newb. Something to look out for if it gets excessive, otherwise this name is just here to make sure he doesn't get overlooked.
JadeFist: Rule breaking + auto-changing vote. Otherwise inactive
Roffles: He says some stuff, but nothing outstandingly pro-town or anti-town.
nbtnbt5
love1another
AcrossFiveJulys
motbob
Suspicious people that have some redeeming quality:
infundibulum: Cool. He defends Caller and Caller if appears red (if Ace isn't BSing us), this is a good sign. Although in response to KF, he actually has posted a few suspects (on the DT list if I recall?). Other than that, medic list + DT list shows at least some commitment to the town. Although it isn't all too pro-town.
BloodyC0bbler: Who is being useless. And is supposedly a good blue sniper? I'm not all too convinced though. He better show up to post or else. Not high on the list, but still someone to look out for. His first post seemed pretty pro-town, but other than that nothing else really pro-town.
Bill Murray: Bill is weird. From his assassin "plan" though, I'd probably look at his followers more closely than him. He's being kinda funky, like always, but he's been accusing more than usual. Usually he posts more about himself being green, no? Or maybe that was just a result of L attacking him like a relentless attack dog. Someone to look out for, but not that high on the list. Might warrant an RC though. Seriously its kinda hard to tell what he is purely from behavior (although he's never been red, right?)
meeple: I'm on the fence with him right now. If you want more info you can look at my archived accusation post about him.
Osmoses: Pretty much same as meeple
***
Note* by the end, I kinda got lazy. Like I said, I am gone tomorrow, so I need to get to bed early tonight and ran out of time. Either way, good luck in my absence. I know this list is long. If you can get people to talk, it shouldn't be too hard to narrow the list down to a manageable size. But then again, since Caller's checked red, I probably wasted my time here. Just use this as a guideline so you can actually try to do stuff and not just sit there. Just because Ace has found us a mafia doesn't mean we get to rest for a day. Keep up the posting, and cya on thursday! I would just like to point out that since Caller is now proven to be mafia and he tried to take me out near the start when he was under risk of being lynched, I am clearly not mafia. Although I am also proving your point that I only post to defend myself and I am semi-inactive. But until I find time to sift through all these posts and come up with a good arguement for why somone is mafia I don't have anything to post.
Ouch. Popping out of nowhere and defending yourself on the basis that Caller is proven mafia - nice job. Sadly, Caller is not mafia. Avoiding analysis, and just popping out randomly to defend yourself. Although would you be that stupid to use this (Caller is mafia therefore I'm not) claim to defend yourself if you were mafia? O wait thats a WIFOM. You're super suspicious, especially given your posting record and uselessness. Luckily for you we have better suspects to go after.
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Cool. Underneath my large list of suspicious ppl post, I get a bunch of ppl arguing about the possibilities for what Ace's role actually is. Did you not read my post? Or just decide to ignore it??
On April 21 2010 17:46 Scaramanga wrote:
If we use the double lynch who are we going to use it on, theres no point in using it if we have one target and we just waste it on an inactive.
Theres been names thrown around the thread in the last few pages of who is scum, i'd like to see BC and those who are doing analysis to setup and suggest who to lynch or what two people should be lynched if the double lynch vote goes through
Lolwut seriously? You've got to be kidding. Read the thread and contribute plox.
On April 22 2010 09:11 Korynne wrote:
I'm not so sure about that. Caller's vote is not exactly close, so a mafia member could definitely go slightly against voting for Caller without worrying that Caller would not get lynched. So I don't think that BC going against Ace is a sure sign of not being red. Likewise, I don't believe there's any reason for tree.hugger's idea that whoever goes against Ace is mafia.
Some controversy over what Ace's result means about BC/the mafia...
On April 22 2010 04:22 tree.hugger wrote:
Immediate reaction: Ace is vindicated, unfortunately. And yet, we get no closer to reducing the mafia KP or eliminating them.
So basically the worst possible result.
Except....
From the mafia's perspective, Ace was lying about the rolecheck. The mafia could not have known that Caller was the miller, and though they might have couched their views slightly to accommodate for that, it seems highly likely that, in order to burnish their credibility, the mafia would've been among Ace's more vocal skeptics. Therefore, when Ace's claim would've been revealed to be total bull-L then the FoS could be smoothly redirected towards Ace, and the mafia members would look like they had a better handle on the game then others.
So it seems to me that people who doubted Ace most strongly, or accused him of lying may have revealed themselves to be mafia. And one person sticks out at the top of this list, beyond all his scummy posting, and random accusations, I think BloodyC0bbler's seat just got a lot hotter.
Lets reexamine. Mafia knows Caller wasn't mafia. From Mafia's point of view, a) Ace is DT AND Caller is Miller, or b) Ace is just BSing. If a), then mafia would have the incentive to try to lynch Ace, since they know that after Ace is proven to be a DT, Caller will also be lynched. Town therefore wastes 2 KP for nothing. If Ace was BSing, then the mafia would rather have Caller die first. If the mafia were unsure of whether or not Ace was telling the truth, then it would be safer to lynch Ace first, as lynching Caller could have disasterous consequences if he were the miller. However, as in my analysis, I stated my reasoning explaining why I thought Ace was telling the truth. If any mafia were reading my analysis, then it makes sense that they would want to lynch Ace. Ppl who were railing against Ace: BC. So yes, it makes sense from BC's point of view to try to get Ace killed if mafia. Combined with his blue sniping (although he denies it, I'm still pretty sure he is capable of doing this) and sudden appearance, a case could be made for BC's redness. However, I'm really not sure a 38 person game would have 3 DTs...which throws me into confusion. Lets see if Mr. Blue Sniper can shed some light on this and net us some more info on the blues (although flamewheel has had some weird balancing in last game).
On April 22 2010 09:56 tree.hugger wrote:
Lets recap: I suggested that, knowing that Ace was wrong, the mafia were more likely than not to conclude that he was making it up.
Actually I would have thought otherwise, as per the above ^^
***
Anyway, in my absence, I guess its clear that you all just are apathetic people. Seriously, if you can't play to win or don't care to analyze, then please don't play the game. It makes it frustrating for people like me who actually put effort into the game. I know how it can be a daunting task to read through pages of info. But the game isn't really fun unless you do it. This game doesn't provide instant gratification, something which, sadly, causes many people to get quickly disinterested in the game. Anyway, with that said, we have to look at the numbers.
7 mafia v. 20 townies. Remember that we have at least 2 assassins left (or else an assassin would have won.) Therefore, we really only have 18 (or less) actual townspeople. 4 die tonight unless medics/vets do their jobs. What does this mean? We're down to 16/7 tomorrow night, given no lucky vig/assassin hits. Given we really don't have any solid leads, we only know that one of RoL/BC is most likely mafia, if not both (highly unlikely though). If we try to lynch both of them, we will only get one mafia. If we try to lynch one of BC/RoL and lynch someone else, we don't have as good of chance of hitting at least one red. 15/6 for the night, with 12/6 the next day. Unless we get lucky, we're pretty much doomed given the inactivity and our lack of suspects (well, Caller has suspects, but I'm not sure about all of them. Meeple I can see. Motbob is a crapshoot, as we have no info on him. ITW, I thought he was pretty pro-town, but I better check again.).
Therefore, in order to win, I propose that we need to take a gamble. We don't have very many options for playing conservatively here. We need to thin out the mafia ranks soon. And for that, we need the help of the assassins. Assassins, why should you help us? Because its in your interests to do so. If the game ends quickly with a lopsided mafia win, you guys don't get a chance to win. Therefore, I propose that we work together to advance both of our goals. You guys have KP. You also want to kill assassins. At this point, the assassins are probably hiding in relative silence. (Or you could read my posts to see one person I think is probably an assassin). Most of the mafia are probably also hiding in relative silence, given the chaos in the thread for the last several pages. Which gives us a great opportunity to scum/assassin hunt. Assassins want to hide, as do the mafia. Given the (relative) inactivity in the thread, (its the same talking heads babbling over and over), assassins can further their interest as well as ours by shooting someone who is quiet. What does this do? 1. It promotes activity. If you are quiet, you will get shot. 2. It gives the assassins the chance to hit other likely assassins. 3. It gives the assassins more time to win the game if they happen to hit a red. 4. We also get more breathing room if reds are hit.
Who are good candidates to hit? I would just use my inactive list.
Scaramanga
Fishball
Koryone
JadeFist
Roffles
nbtnbt5
love1another
AcrossFiveJulys
motbob
Objections? Questions?
Also of course if you are a vig, please hit BC so we can find out about RoL. I'd hate to have to wait another day cycle to find this information.
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On April 23 2010 13:17 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
The thing is, I have already stated that I believe BC's behavior points to him being innocent, as he so openly railed against Ace. If you look at the circumstances of RoL's rolecheck, it was a lot different than Ace's rolecheck because Ace checked a player that he had publicly suspected Day 1, and Caller was unlucky enough to be the miller. Combined with Caller's already odd play it was enough to get people to vote for him. However it seems like theres a lot more doubt in the town regarding rol/bc. I mean I guess it's totally possible that BC is also a Miller, and RoL does have a point that his play doesn't make a whole lot of sense from the mafia perspective (though is this a bit of a wifom? it sort of sounds like it). Korynne has similar sentiments expressed in her post above.
Its not a matter of it being a wifom or not. I simply can't fake a role check as mafia. Doing it I would either have to be really lucky or lucky and good at behavior analysis to actually pull that off. I could be lying, but lynching BC would figure that out for you 99%. So its not like I trying to pull a wifom and mind fuck you, because quite simply it would be an enormous risk with a gain that is not even worth it.
@Incognito. I agree with your entire post.
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is awesome32274 Posts
Nice post Incognito.
I don't agree about nAi.Protoss thought, I used to think he was mafia too (but right now, after 1 day I have lost some ideas why, I need to re-read his history).
I say we take a bet on nai.Protoss + BC / RoL. I know it's kind of risky, but if we hit 1, we get their KP down. With the hit on BC / RoL we get some info on the other.
Assassins should definitely hit inactives as you pointed out, as an assassin I would look into voting histories, some people have been voting with the masses and moving votes (meaning they have been reading the thread) but barely post.
It would suck to have more inactive townies, we already had too many : /
From the list your provided, If i were an assassin I would hit Fishball, JadeFist or motbob. Those three seem to be the ones voting and following the thread at least a little, but staying under the radar, not posting in general.
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On April 23 2010 10:49 Abenson wrote:
Woah what?
Jedi Lesson 1:
Post in the thread, young padawan.
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is awesome32274 Posts
Also, why did we stop talking about RaGe. If you re-read some posts from him (basically around page 43-45) he tries to look like a victim with the role-check set on him. He also inactive at times...
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On April 23 2010 13:51 IntoTheWow wrote:
Nice post Incognito.
I don't agree about nAi.Protoss thought, I used to think he was mafia too (but right now, after 1 day I have lost some ideas why, I need to re-read his history).
I say we take a bet on nai.Protoss + BC / RoL. I know it's kind of risky, but if we hit 1, we get their KP down. With the hit on BC / RoL we get some info on the other.
Assassins should definitely hit inactives as you pointed out, as an assassin I would look into voting histories, some people have been voting with the masses and moving votes (meaning they have been reading the thread) but barely post.
It would suck to have more inactive townies, we already had too many : /
From the list your provided, If i were an assassin I would hit Fishball, JadeFist or motbob. Those three seem to be the ones voting and following the thread at least a little, but staying under the radar, not posting in general.
I wouldn't necessarily call myself staying under the radar, but I agree; If I could, I would hit myself!
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On April 23 2010 14:04 IntoTheWow wrote:
Also, why did we stop talking about RaGe. If you re-read some posts from him (basically around page 43-45) he tries to look like a victim with the role-check set on him. He also inactive at times...
Eh... well first I don't see how he plays the victim. I looked through his posts on those pages and didn't see that much scum in it. Can you elaborate?
Inactive at times is not really a good mafia tell... there are plenty of real life stuff that gets in the way of a forum mafia game.
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Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
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Um, obvious objection is that I am not inactive, I never was (I replaced an inactive), and you should be able to notice that easily if you read the last couple pages at all (which you seem to have, since you quoted me and mentioned me in your post >.<).
Actually, given that Caller ended up being miller, I think it's rather silly for nai.protoss to post something like that if he was mafia. When it is revealed that Caller is miller, nai.protoss has to defend himself all over again. Given how he plays, I would say he's just an overly defensive noob. Either way I don't agree on hitting protoss if we have a better player that is a suspect, only based on the fact that he doesn't seem to know what he's doing, i.e. probably won't contribute a lot to the mafia.
Mostly in agreement with Incognito's post minus the fact that he called everyone apathetic people. xD While it is true that some people have not been contributing it seems rather overgeneralizing to call everyone apathetic. Not to mention that kind of hostility further intimidates new players...
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OMG, my second post that ninja'd a wink smiley in itself. >=[
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yeah I meant to say, besides his inactive list incog's post was awesome.
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On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting.
On April 23 2010 14:13 Korynne wrote:
Um, obvious objection is that I am not inactive, I never was (I replaced an inactive), and you should be able to notice that easily if you read the last couple pages at all (which you seem to have, since you quoted me and mentioned me in your post >.<).
Actually, given that Caller ended up being miller, I think it's rather silly for nai.protoss to post something like that if he was mafia. When it is revealed that Caller is miller, nai.protoss has to defend himself all over again. Given how he plays, I would say he's just an overly defensive noob. Either way I don't agree on hitting protoss if we have a better player that is a suspect, only based on the fact that he doesn't seem to know what he's doing, i.e. probably won't contribute a lot to the mafia.
Mostly in agreement with Incognito's post minus the fact that he called everyone apathetic people. xD While it is true that some people have not been contributing it seems rather overgeneralizing to call everyone apathetic. Not to mention that kind of hostility further intimidates new players...
Oh sorry. I copied and pasted lists from one of my previous posts, and changed Fulgrim to Korynne. I didn't really run through to see if anyone got active. Just used the old lists. Falcynn was in another list, aka the more suspicious ppl list. So yeah, assassins are free to kill Falcynn. Actually my top 3 picks would be motbob, Falcynn, and JadeFist right now.
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Vigis shoot infundibulum too he's useless.
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On April 23 2010 14:24 Ace wrote:
Vigis shoot infundibulum too he's useless.
I wish we had 3 vigs...but I highly doubt we have 1 hatter (2 KP) AND 3 vigs (3 KP). Just hit BC, we need that hit more badly in order to confirm RoL (Unless RoL is just being an asshat).
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On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons.
Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.
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On April 23 2010 14:31 Falcynn wrote:Show nested quote +On April 23 2010 14:12 AcrossFiveJulys wrote:
Incognito, I'm rather insulted that you put me on the inactive list. I've been trying to take a more active role in the town in the past few pages, if you would take the time to look. Also, your inactive list is incomplete. For example, I haven't seen falcynn post in days, but he's been voting. I'm still following the thread fairly closely, just haven't had anything that I felt I should say. Earlier in the thread someone accused me of being a useless chatterbox, and looking at my posts here I'd say that's pretty accurate, so I just wanted to make sure I had a handle over everything before I start making more random posts/jumping on bandwagons. Probably once night is over I'll try to make/post some of my assumptions based on whether or not BC/RoL die before the next day.
If you're accused of being a useless chatterbox and then just disappear, it looks more suspicious. Congradulations, it seems as if you've been active lurking! Someone plz kill.
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True, but I figured posting more useless comments wouldn't help my cause either considering I'm horrible at coming up with my own analysis' and most of my comments would just involve me agreeing with other people. At least that was my thinking at the time.
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EPT
