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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
On April 23 2010 23:54 meeple wrote:
mmm I wonder if modkills are taken into account when you balance this game... I dunno if we're doing especially poorly... but 15 to 7 after tonight is pretty tight when they have 4 KP.
Modkills should never be taken into account. That's why we have the ban list up, so the people who do get modkilled won't be around to affect the game.
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So as I understand it, we're shooting BC and his flip determines RoL's role/alignment. Supposing BC flips green (not Miller), we lynch RoL for lying; if BC flips red/Miller then RoL is in the clear. Third possibility - both BC and RoL are assassins, in which case it's a moot point, except for the fact that we're no closer to lynching any mafia. Actually, I find it kind of odd that we would have >2 DTs in this game. Jury's still out for me on whether or not we have 3 Medics in the game (counting the one that's dead) but I like the idea of randomly picking a amongst Ace/Incog/RoL to protect.
Some points to consider:
- BC hasn't posted for a while, whether that's due to some form of protest against the 'idiocy' of the town or for some other reason. Given all of the suspicion laid upon him recently I'd expect him to be posting more, not less if he's actually mafia (but maybe he WANTS us to think that?!) so it's hard to say.
- Inf brought up a good point a few pages back, that Vigis don't work the same way they do in other games - they only have ONE hit at night. So don't do as Ace says and stack all your hits on BC or else we'd be wasting shots. Actually, that makes me start to wonder about Ace. Hmm...
That's it for now; going to be out for the rest of the day. Hopefully I'll be back in time to see the night post, and this weekend should be primetime for some rigorous analysis.
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If all Vigis hit the same target one goes through, the other hits are refunded. Hence ALL of them should shoot BC.
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Haha, nice analysis of JadeFist AcrossFiveJulys. xP
I maintain that medics should only protect RoL/Ace, three people would be spreading it out too thin, especially if we only have 1 medic left. If we have 3 medics left that's a pretty good solid protection on Ace, if the mafia really wants to kill Ace they would have to put 4 hits on him, unlikely to happen given how many townies they could kill instead.
I would go with protect Ace 2/3 and protect RoL 1/3 for all medics.
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On April 24 2010 03:32 Korynne wrote:
Haha, nice analysis of JadeFist AcrossFiveJulys. xP
I maintain that medics should only protect RoL/Ace, three people would be spreading it out too thin, especially if we only have 1 medic left. If we have 3 medics left that's a pretty good solid protection on Ace, if the mafia really wants to kill Ace they would have to put 4 hits on him, unlikely to happen given how many townies they could kill instead.
I would go with protect Ace 2/3 and protect RoL 1/3 for all medics.
The problem I have with saying that out loud is now the mafia might very well choose not to hit either RoL or Ace, but go for 4 other random people, which means we get shafted. It's better to trust the medics to be intelligent with who to protect, and to keep quiet about who they're protecting.
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Um...doesn't matter what reverse psychology you think of. You'd rather keep me alive and potentially RoL. Let the Mafia guess all they want, we are being protted and obviously role blocked.
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On April 24 2010 03:52 BrownBear wrote:Show nested quote +On April 24 2010 03:32 Korynne wrote:
Haha, nice analysis of JadeFist AcrossFiveJulys. xP
I maintain that medics should only protect RoL/Ace, three people would be spreading it out too thin, especially if we only have 1 medic left. If we have 3 medics left that's a pretty good solid protection on Ace, if the mafia really wants to kill Ace they would have to put 4 hits on him, unlikely to happen given how many townies they could kill instead.
I would go with protect Ace 2/3 and protect RoL 1/3 for all medics. The problem I have with saying that out loud is now the mafia might very well choose not to hit either RoL or Ace, but go for 4 other random people, which means we get shafted. It's better to trust the medics to be intelligent with who to protect, and to keep quiet about who they're protecting.
Well the thing is, if we tell the medics who they should protect, we could end up confusing both the mafia and the medics. Like you said, the mafia could end up hitting 4 randoms that are not on the list, but if a "smart" medic thought about that, they would end up trying to protect a random. In any case, I still think that protecting the more active, intelligent players would be better than trying to protect other randoms.
So I think that it all comes down the play of the other roles with KP. Even if they are not smart enough to decipher and analyse posts, I hope they can still listen to the general tips of the town and use their kills tonight to catch some mafia.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Just as a quick note, next day post may be a bit late in coming up. I have a >3:00 bus ride home, and traffic may own me, so just hang tight if it's not up by the deadline. Remember, if you want night action changes I'll take them until the time stamped deadline, but not after.
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This game is spectacular.
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If we claim medic protection on important players (Ace, RoL for now) then we are discouraging mafia from hitting them.
The more the mafia is convinced that we will carry out this plan, the less likely they are to hit important players, which is good for town.
Protecting a random is strictly worse than protecting someone important. If medics want to go against protecting Ace/RoL, they should at least be protecting active people who they feel are townies ie. choose randomly between people who are not BC, inactives, or those they feel like are particularly scummy people.
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On April 22 2010 09:16 Korynne wrote:Show nested quote +On April 22 2010 08:27 nbtnbt5 wrote:On April 20 2010 13:20 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Guys remember to check out the ZBOT thread, it will be a very useful tool in the near future. also what is this and where can i find it? (i tried searching for it) Uhhh... xD If you look on the Mafia forum, and then look for the ONLY THREAD THAT ZBOT STARTED THAT HAPPENS TO HAVE THE SAME NUMBER FOR MAFIA AS THIS GAME, I think you would find it? xP Why is this so hard? xD [Link provided here incase you still cannot find it]This reflects poorly on your abilities in general. >_>
Ahh, Thank You. Sorry for being so useless >.<
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Hey all, sorry for my recent absentness, but if you read my blog a couple weeks back I lost my job and am just now about to get a new one if I play my cards right. Unfortunately I won't be able to participate quite as much from now on. I've just read up on the events following night2 and here's my input:
I'm onboard with lynching/vigikilling BC. If BC comes out town we'll know who needs to die next  Medics, you know what you need to do, think like scum on who to protect. Ace and RoL are obvious choices, but the reds might think so too and go for someone else. There's really no obvious choice in that regard. Incog doesn't seem to be blue, I'm not seeing anything that looks like inside knowledge on his part, but as a townie with intelligent things to say (if he's not just a clever scum) he's still pretty valuable.
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FREEAGLELAND26782 Posts
Day 3:
Another night, another four people dead. DarthThienAn and Roffles were walking home from a late night job during the night, but simultaneously both were ambushed and went down in an instant. The next morning, the Town would find the bodies of DarthThienAn and Roffles lying at the foot of a prominent Liq Vegas casino.
The other two Mafia targets put up a fight, but did not fare much better.
For the last two days, AcrossFiveJulys and tree.hugger had been watching each other carefully, and as of last night both had figured out the other's alignment. Both Assassins sharpened their blades, preparing for the showdown.
A game of cat-and-mouse ran on for a while, and as the moon waned, neither killer was able to strike the killing blow. As he scrambled for the high ground, AcrossFiveJulys looked down to find a red dot on his chest. Realizing what the ominous red mark was, he tried to throw himself out of the way, but the Mafioso's sniper bullet came in way too fast, and blew AcrossFiveJulys backward, sending him sailing off the rooftop he was crouched upon.
Hearing the sound, tree.hugger hesitated, knowing something was up. As he looked around warily, he saw the sniper who had taken out AcrossFiveJulys, and started toward him silently. As he descended upon his target, he brought out his blade and slashed at the man, taking his head clean off.
As the head hit the pavement, tree.hugger stared at it and gasped.
The sniper had been a dummy.
tree.hugger gasped as the red dot found his chest, and then he was no more.
Watching this scene silently from the highest peaks this whole time, RebirthOfLeGenD smiled as the deaths unfolded. The last of the four Assassins, RebirthOfLeGenD silent left the city before the sun rose, knowing that he could now go back to his corporate masters to deliver the good news.
Roffles and DarthThienAn the Townies have been killed.
tree.hugger and AcrossFiveJulys the Assassins have been killed.
Being the last of the four original Assassins, RebirthOfLeGenD has completed his mission objectives and has left the game upon securing his win conditions.
It is now Day 3. This day will run for 48 hours, until Monday, Apr 26 1:00am GMT (GMT+00:00). With 21 players remaining in the game, it will take 11 to reach a majority.
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Well then, so much for assassins helping out the town. xD
I guess congrats to RoL? xD (I knew you looked fishy!!)
14 townies, 7 mafia. >.<
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So RoL wins and leaves? So funny.
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OK so the question now is... Can we trust RoL's role check on BC? I should think so, otherwise he'd have put himself at an awful risk.
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motbob
United States12546 Posts
....I don't think this game is winnable unless we hit on every lynch. 14 town and 7 mafia. Mafia have 3KP in a best case scenario. If mafia just skip likely medic targets and hit random town, and we miss a lynch, this game is basically over. What makes this worse is that (imo) we don't have any likely lynch targets. So town is in roleclaim mode IMO. What does everyone else think?
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Belgium9953 Posts
Why does RoL win if they target eachother
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oh don't worry guys, my scumdar went off nicely last night. Infundibulum is Mafia.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://mi9.com/datawallpaper/data/10/821/1236310111/assassin-on-top-of-the-city_size_800x600.jpg)
