EPTOh well, I guess I am useless. Maybe I should just stop putting so much effort into this game. Hopefully your DTs can win the game for you
.Gnight y'all.
TL Mafia XXII - Page 69
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Incognito
United States2071 Posts
Oh well, I guess I am useless. Maybe I should just stop putting so much effort into this game. Hopefully your DTs can win the game for you .Gnight y'all. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:39 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I actually would say yes, protect RoL, because the mafia know whether or not he's a detective. Here's my proposed plan: Vig, kill BC. --If BC flips mafia: yay, we got a mafia kill, and we know that RoL is either a trustworthy detective or an assassin. Now we can choose 2 targets for the double lynch and hopefully bag at least 1 more mafioso. --If BC flips town: we lynch RoL for a mafia kill and hopefully get another through the double lynch Medics, protect RoL and Ace. Why the hell should Incognito be protected? Sure, he comes off as pro town and I trust him more than most people right now, but he could easily be mafia trying to shepard the town into trusting him. Further, he has not claimed any kind of blue role, so while he brings forth good analysis we are better off protecting our (most likely) detective Ace and (potential) detective RoL. You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:49 meeple wrote: You're not worried about wasting precious medic protection on an unproven detective, who might be an assasin? Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 16:53 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: Read what I wrote more carefully. The point is, he could be a detective, and the mafia will surely try to kill him tonight if he is, and plus we can lynch him tomorrow if it turned out he was BSing on the rolecheck since BC will die tonight. There is much more reason to protect him than incognito. I fully understand that he could be a detective... I was looking at how likely you thought he was. However, its also possible we protect three people... or you think that spreads it too thin? | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
I mean it still requires 3 hits to guarantee death, but for 2 people I'd say 89% is close enough to certainty. Now the Ace with 2/3 and RoL with 1/3: AA = 44% chance of double protecting Ace. AR + RA = 44% chance of protecting each once. RR = 11% chance of double protecting RoL. So from the other side: 1 hit on Ace: 11% chance of killing him 2 hits on Ace: 44% chance of killing him 3 hits on Ace: guaranteed to kill. 1 hit on RoL: 44% chance of killing him 2 hits on RoL: 89% chance of killing him 3 hits on RoL: guaranteed to kill. Do these numbers look better than 50/50? xD (1 hit: 25%, 2 hits: 75%) | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Of course, this is all on the assumption that there are exactly 3 medics left; for all we know, there could be 2 or 4 left. | ||
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
[Goal: Kill Ace 100% and hit RoL] Best choice: 50/50 would protect RoL more if he is detective [Goal: Highest expected value for detectives killed] 50/50: Expected value is 1.5 detectives if they put two hits on each 67/33: Expected value is 1.44 detectives if they put 3 hits on Ace and 1 hit on RoL So we would prefer 67/33 in this case I don't know enough to know what is better for mafia, so someone else tell me what's better for us to do. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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Korynne
Canada990 Posts
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RaGe
Belgium9947 Posts
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 20:23 RaGe wrote: Where the hell did JadeFist disappear to? He never really appeared... When you search his name in the thread there are like 30 instances of pointing out how inactive he is... and 2 of his own posts. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
Voted Caller. Last time I played decafchicken, a long time forum veteran, was the Godfather. I feel like the choice for mafia members is not entirely random and I wouldn't be surprised if a forum "celebrity" such as Caller was mafia. He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
On April 23 2010 21:11 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I have a theory about JadeFist. Here's his only non-signup post: He whined that the roles are rigged by the host. This makes it look to me as if he wanted an "important" role, but got townie and is not interested in the game. He could be mafia and hoping to make us think just that, but I think for now we have bigger fish to fry. Eh... not really enough to make any conclusions from that though... He has voted so he is around... I wonder why he hasn't replied to any of the prods from people here. | ||
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AcrossFiveJulys
United States3612 Posts
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On April 23 2010 15:10 nAi.PrOtOsS wrote: To late for generating content. If you have already convinced yourselves that I am mafia then no amount of content will change that. No matter what I say it will be overanalyzed and used as "evidence" as to why I am mafia. I will save you a vote and go inactive next day cycle, and get modkilled. No strategic modkills. There are consequences extending beyond the game. | ||
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flamewheel
FREEAGLELAND26781 Posts
On April 23 2010 20:23 RaGe wrote: Where the hell did JadeFist disappear to? Wow, somehow he slipped my mind... he never did post in the thread during Day 2. Guess I'm going to have to modkill him. Seriously, what the hell activity. JadeFist the Townie has been modkilled due to lack of activity (should've done it at the end of Day 2, sorry for the small slip-up). | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
This means that worst-case scenario after tonight, we could end up 15 town vs 7 mafia - meaning we essentially need the double lynch, and we need both lynchings to hit mafia, to survive. gogogo medics vigis and assassins. | ||
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meeple
Canada10211 Posts
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