TL Mafia XX - Page 25

On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote:
So I have an incredibly short attention span, and with the way this game has gone, I can feel my interest slipping -_-;; It seems to me as though both mafia teams are discussing behind closed doors, and townies are not doing anything. I also have a feeling I'm going to get hit tonight, so I figure I may as well take a gamble and write this.

Basically, I would like to propose to townies that we band together, unite, and vote in unison to lynch L. The basis behind my proposal is mainly behavioral related, with some clue analysis thrown in. These are my reasons:

1. The chances that a mayor/pardoner is a member of the mafia are extremely, extremely high. Here's what I wrote in a PM to DoctorHelvetica the day before yesterday:
After looking at Foolishness' post though, maybe I am giving the mafia too much credit. Maybe there's a chance they played it too risky/were too disorganized and let a mayoral position slip from their grasp. But I think the chances of that are quite slim. A single team could singlehandedly have won the mayoral/pardoner positions given how many people abstained. (This doesn't mean that we should discredit the people who abstained/voted for other candidates though, obviously. As DoctorHelvetica was so kind to share: ) As we can also see from Foolishness' post, a mayoral candidate who played it pretty "safely" and didn't rely on a last minute influx of votes was L. But many of the last influx of votes were green townies, and therefore I think there's a better chance L is mafia over redtooth. I am well aware that I was one of the foolish people who voted L for mayor, but the reasons why I did so I see now in retrospect are quite foolish. I voted for him because (a) he presented himself as a leader with a strong, decisive voice at a time when everyone was confused and unsure (b) i didn't think his profile had enough substance for incognito to write clues on.

with regards to (a), I see how stupid it was of me to jump on the L bandwagon. First off, the fact that he presented himself as a decisive leader is something any mafia member would do. To hold influence over the town is such an invaluable asset in this game.

with regards to (b), this leads me to point #2.

2. At first, I thought that it was impossible for L to be mafia because his profile has absolutely no substance whatsoever. I believe he wasn't able to upload a picture until AFTER the game started, and his quote is "YOU JUST DON'T KNOW." this isn't a reference to anything as far as i can tell, and is SO little for incognito to base claims on. i now see that i was quite stupid to think that way. while his profile/picture contains absolutely nothing for incog to base his clues off, his very name "L" does fit the clues. L is of course in reference to the detective character in death note. let's read this part of day 2's passage:

+ Show Spoiler +
what characterizes L (the detective) in death note? he is extremely thoughtful, clever, observant. the way the mafiaso acts in this passage just REEKS of someone with L's character. he plots/plans/observes/is clever and thoughtful. he doesn't just jump into action but is very sly and clever about what he does. he cautiously checks the room first. he checks the papers to see if they're important. he slyly tiptoes up the stairs so he doesn't alert his victim. he cleverly notices fresh tracks and follows them. with regard to the whole darkness and light thing, L's enemy is Light Yagami. perhaps the whole L hides in darkness because his enemy is Light could account for this part of the clue.

3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes
+ Show Spoiler +

followed by L who goes:
+ Show Spoiler +

and then later his explanation:
+ Show Spoiler +

this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler +
are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia.

SO i hope i have made a good enough argument that all you townies/other mafia team will consider lynching L tonight. of course i am not absolutely certain that i am correct in my accusation, but i've thought this through and i dont think we have much to lose. i understand that u all may be wary to lynch L; after all, L is pardoner and has the ability to pardon lynches. but what use is a pardoner to us who can't figure out the difference between mafia and townsman? as i've shown in #3, we have reason to believe that either his analysis is extremely flawed or that his accusations are heavily biased. there's no point in having a pardoner who MOST LIKELY will end up pardoning people who are mafia members. if he is a mafia member, he will pardon his fellow mafia members. if he isn't a mafia member, he will probably pompously and incorrectly asses the situation, and end up pardoning a mafia member as well. furthermore, the way this game is going down, it's now 25v10v10. we townspeople are STILL disorganized and disunited vs. two coherent, organized teams, and to add insult to injury, we're being picked off like flies. at this point, there's no point in our going after "small fish." we need to hit them now, and where it would hurt. like i said, i could be wrong that L is mafia, but i hope my reasoning has shown that it is worth it to make this gamble. in terms of calculated risks and potential gain, it is very very worth it.

4. on a final note, consider this: L claims he is such an amazing clue analyzer, but currently he is down 0/2. i dont base this as a reason to lynch him, as everyone makes mistakes. HOWEVER, if u scroll through the thread, u will see that he pushed for ace and emp to be killed/lynched both with extreme conviction. i myself am pushing for L to be lynch, but i acknowledge that there is room for error. L does no such thing. any towns person would hesitate and not be so ready to kill off another person, as there's a high chance (3/5th chance) that said person is a fellow townie, and killing off a fellow townie is not beneficial to the rest of the town. on the other hand, a mafia member would not be so hesitant because either way, as long as the person they accuse/push for ISNT on their team, he's either on the rivalry mafia team or a townie, both of which are readily dispensable for him. while i construct my argument on why it is worth it to take this RISK, L doesn't even seem to care about the consequences for the town if he is wrong.

tl;dr: just read the bold points. we have strong reason to believe L is mafia.

On March 13 2010 10:52 Zona wrote:
Why are you dictating a list for the DT's and Medics? Do you have any reasons for the people you've chosen?

Let the DTs and medics choose for themselves. If you post a public list, and the DTs and medics actually follow it, the mafia bus driver can effectively screw with the town without even needing to find his/her fellow mafia members in order to coordinate. I think these lists are not a helpful idea for the town.

It also irks me that you've declared your idea to be final without thinking through the differences in the mechanics in this game. Or perhaps you have, but decided to hold such things back and post the flawed argument nonetheless.
Yuck.


Also, what the heck is this:
Why are you simply naming the other reputable players in the game? "Good enough to be mafia"? How does being "good" have any relation to their chance of being mafia in a game with randomly distributed roles? And being quiet isn't automatically a mafia tell. Maybe they just want to try a different style this game.

Finally, did you put a serious effort into your election campaign beyond the initial posts?



nemY is absolutely right in this case. First of all the GF role only has a purpose if the DT is still around, so if you lose the DT, the GF is just another mafia member. Secondly, and I'm probably reiterating things that everyone knows, the power of the DT is not only to identify mafia but to privately or publicly confirm town members for various uses. (Private trust-worthy discussions, for example.) And so trading the DT for a single mafia member is not ideal.


I'm surprised that this early in the game I'm making a post of this size focused on just one of our players, but those three statements are truly bad ideas that do not help the town. Whether they were things you truly overlooked while formulating your ideas or are intentional actions, the town will have to examine what plans you propose very carefully.


P.S. Everyone who's using red and blue and whatever colors to strengthen your posts - please don't. The colors themselves do not contribute anything whatsoever to your reasoning, and instead (at least to me) shows that you don't have enough confidence in your arguments alone and have to rely on gimmicks to reinforce them.