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1) I've been trying to change my picture, but I need to find out my password.
2) I'll be running for mayor.
3) Ver's retarded and looking at clues is plenty helpful, especially since it lets you see who's pushing against who. Regardless, having people talking is better than having people not talking. Its far easier to let people be silent in a 50 man game than have them actively feign town interests.
Proof? Pretty much every large game we've had.
In the current game, a full 40% of people playing are mafia; while clues shouldn't be the only thing you have on someone, they should definitely play a part.
Then again this is probably just my interpretation, given that I'm one of the only people who is responsible for a clue kill on day 1 or 2.
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I am going to bold sections that I think are non-herrings. This probably won't be every clue, nor do I think that day 1's lynch in particular should be 100% clue motivated. Day 1 lynch works far better as a method of getting mayoral candidates to talk about who they want to kill.
As for me? I'd probably kill chez because of how much trash he's going to put in the thread. While I disagree with Ver, he's a good player and I know what he's trying to say. The other option is killing someone inactive, which isn't really a bad choice, but generally that doesn't actually kill a mafia for us.
So without further delay, here is a post with me bolding shit I think is important.
On February 14 2010 07:43 Incognito wrote:Day 1As darkness set over the town of Liquidia, a light, warm, wind blew across the land This seems odd. to say the least, not something that will clearly net us a kill, but its something that might link up in later days. From here on, something that might be thematic, but not entirely strong enough as a clue in and of itself, I will underline.. The moon, now high in the sky, peeked in and out of the clouds and cast ominous shadowsThe moon and shadows figure as prominent themes throughout this post throughout the streets. The town was quiet except for a few straggling workers plodding home. The town had been exhausted from the last rebuilding, and many shopkeepers lacked the will and the customers to stay open through the evening. Mayor Incognito peered out of his apartment building, noticing the tranquilityThis didn't pop out at me during my first reading, but quiet and tranquility are mentioned more than once that had recently come to the town. After all, the mafia had been swiftly eliminated last year, and was unlikely to come back. Or so he thought. For the most part, the town was dark, excepting the moon which occasionally peeked out of the clouds. As Pardoner Kennigit prepared to retire for the night, he noticed that one room in the City Hall building remained lit. It was Qatol, who had been slaving laboriously in drafting a new constitution for the town. Sighing, Qatol decided to call it quits for the night. The new town constitution was almost complete; it only had a few details that needed to be straightened out. So he turned off the light and began his trek home. Dreamflower, whose house was on the outskirts of town, was nervous at the sight of the weather outside. She was not comforted by the fact that shadows kept appearing around her house, although she knew it was only the moon behind the moving clouds. Suddenly however, she noticed two horsemen stopped on the ridge in the distance. Nowadays, it was strange for anyone to be out this late at night. Wary that the mafia had returned, dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting. Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds. Dreamflower became more nervous, and pointed her gun out the window, waiting for the horsemen to approach. However, she was startled as she noticed a figure walking towards the horsemen. She breathed a sigh of relief when she recognized Qatol. But what was Qatol doing out so late at night?Why WAS Qatol out at night? There's a few potential answers, but the fact that Qatol walks towards the mafia indicates something akin to their trustworthy appearance Dreamflower was puzzled, but was snapped back into reality as she noticed the horsemen were only a football field away from her location. Thinking quickly, she decided not to fire a shot, but ran outside to get Qatol to safety. She tried to run in the shadows, but was caught in the middle of the road as the moon pierced through the cloud layer and shone directly on her. The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horsemanQuite frankly, this is a retardedly easy clue pointing towards ace, which makes me wonder if its a herring and if we should be looking more at the reflection aspect. Maybe incog just doesn't like Ace, and was a little slow to react. She leaped to the left, and narrowly avoided death. But the second horseman just cackled loudly. Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.Second horseman cackles loudly and might be heavy, not really that much to go on In a panic, dreamflower ran back into her house to grab her gun, but it was futile. The ground felt moist, and dreamflower slipped as she ran through her front door. The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen. Alright, so, there's a guy with a torch who soaked someone's house in oil. He seems to come from behind or might be part of the other mafia team. If that's the case, horseman 1&2 are from the same team, which fits the method of their descriptionSo far we have:
Horseman 1: Moonlight reflection.
Horseman 2: Cackles and is heavy?
Incendiary torch lobber: Oils and torches things.Incognito was almost falling asleep standing up, but then noticed a house in flames in the distance. Immediately taking action, he raced down stairs and called up Kennigit to take care of the incident. By the time that both Kennigit and Incognito were racing towards dreamflower’s burning house, there was more commotion in the streets. Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. was this the same as the earlier cackle? Or is the panic indicative of chaos and the hyena-like noise indicating someone else entirely? Either way, this paragraph seems like it'll bear fruit when we have more days and more clues to work with The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square. Kennigit had time to get his thoughts together, and swiftly chased after the figure. But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen. Fearing that his end was near, Kennigit hid behind a barrel of wine, and was astonished that the horseman did not pursue him. However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness. This last portion, I'm not even going to bother highlighting. The links to Ace are retardedly strong; this last paragraph is in reference to a horseman
Ace, lol what happened. Incog hates you.
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On February 14 2010 09:13 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
We should worry about elections right now. Keep the clues in mind as they'll become important later, but too much speculation is just distracting and helps the mafia imo
The only real points of contention in any election is whether or not we're voting in someone who's red or blue, and who we're going to kill if we're elected.
The first is very hard to determine for the majority of people, so we generally just look at the competition for who we're going to kill. Cults of personality also play into this, but frankly none of us are superstar ballers that automatically deserve an in.
So what exactly, should we talk about? Who we're going to mayor lynch? I'm hovering between Ace, Chez or an inactive.
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On February 14 2010 09:29 Zato-1 wrote:It... does seem to look that way. "If darkness is bad, why does it hide you? If light is good, why does it blind you?" There are numerous references to the horsemen hiding in the shadows, and then to using light to blind dreamflower. I'm still not 100% convinced that this is all referring to Ace, but whatever doubt remains on my mind is only from the fact that day 1 clue analysis should be taken with a metric ton of salt. Pretty much. The only thing I see as somewhat redeeming is the fact that his picture is Deathscythe Hell Custom, but then I see Death as one of the four horsemen, and Deathscythe had an invisibility cloak which explains the fading into the shadows.
The only thing that stands out to me is the blue light, and that might be explainable too.
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On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Ok, the KingPin has arrived. Time to stop this nonsense and get this game started.
First of all, I'm going to be brutally honest here. Some of you playing are newbies. That isn't to say you're bad, but more so that you haven't had the experience of playing a true cut throat game of Mafia. The last 2 games were honestly so bland - aka too much talking about clues, that it wasn't really that much high level strategy going on.
Like Ver said, talking too much about clues early is USELESS. Don't try to convince anyone that someone is Mafia based on clues for the first few days. It's nice to mention it, but do not make it a central point of focus. MTF and Camlito are the best 2 clue analyzers along with Plexa that we ever had. That was in Mafia 2 and it took a ton of planning + input from various people to even come to some of those conclusions. Chances are you won't be able to do much with clues this game unless you've got some additional proof. What I mean by this is catch someone on behavior analysis + clues + shoddy voting or motives. Saying "this clue points to Ace" is just stupid.
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.
I'm running for Mayor of course. But in the event I don't win, my vote is possibly going to Ver. The only reason I might not vote for him is because he has elected to kill BC which is just as bad as L/Zato wanting me dead. Our most valuable players should be saved unless it's blatantly obvious they are Mafia. There are 3 teams this game, don't even bother trying to murder all of our good players so soon.
Summarized version: I'm angry that in game where 2 out of 5 people are mafia, that someone called me out on blatant clue connections.
I could understand if we had a 20 man game with like, 4 mafia, that a host would understandably shy away from good day 1 clues, but that's really not the case here. Compare this game's Day 1 post with clues to pretty much any of the others; This one is far larger, has more thematic elements and establishes 3-4 clear personae.
Actually, I kinda want to repeat that; Lets look at this current game format.
The town consists of 31 members. The mafia families combined amount to 20 members. Mafia, given that they attack a group that is 41 members large, and not 51 members large, have a 1/4 chance of hitting a mafia from another house, and a 3/4 chance of hitting a townie. With a total of 7 kp per day, 1 from the town, 3 from each family, we have 1*60%+6*75% effective average townie deaths per day before clues and blue roles. That's 5 deaths a day, giving us a clock of around 6-8 days to kill...
20 mafia?
Well, that's not entirely true; we should have 2 mafia killed by that point by fire between the groups, so 18. Say we have 8 days until some form of LyLo situtation, giving us 8 lynches; Even if we succeed every lynch, we're going to have ten mafia still alive.
That's impossible. Many of you know its impossible. So what handicaps is town likely to get? Well for one, they have stronger DTs, they probably have substantial kp in vigs and hatters, but they won't amount to the 12 kp hole we have.
More to the point; Clues aren't here just for the town; They're for opposing mafia teams as well. If we aren't analysing and picking a few good targets a day, one of the teams will be; ideally we want to be correct about a few of the early ones and have members of the mafia agree so that they shred each other and lower their kp asap.
So why exactly are you thinking that day 1 clues wouldn't be a part of the game?
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Actually, in a game of 51 people, its easier to link up the thematics than it is to slog through the profiles. Believe me. I know.
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On February 14 2010 12:11 Ace wrote:
No, come up with new plans. This entire discussion around whether to use Clues on Day 1 is so revealing already. Like I said it doesn't matter how many Mafia are in the game, using Clues to catch people isn't going to change the fact that they are subjective call outs. See the point now?
So basically you're innocent in the face of the only real piece of evidence we have on our lap?
Ok.
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Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content.
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On February 14 2010 12:17 Abenson wrote:
L v Ace...
Flame war between vets o.o
Don't really see this being a flamewar, I'm just shocked by the fact that Ace is ignoring the game format and pretty much ignoring both the validity of day 1 clues in this format as well as the strength of the clues themselves.
I'm wondering if he's hoping that I'll back off in the face of some mafia members giving him proxy support in the thread or something.
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On February 14 2010 12:20 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 12:18 L wrote:
Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content. There was a picture in someone's profile with a moon, a woman, and fire. I was posted earlier. Plus shadows and darkness was in Day 1 post of last game.
Shadows aren't what make me think he's the horseman. Its the blinded by moonlight, him disappearing into shadows, and his radiant end.
I mean, they fit perfectly with his quote.
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On February 14 2010 12:27 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 12:18 L wrote:
Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content. because I'm not going to sit here and point fingers for no reason. I won't sit here and start revenge accusations just because the clues don't point to me. I won't go looking for people and say HEY THE CLUES POINT TO THIS GUY NOT ME - that doesn't help the town. It just invites one more person into the ruckus and then they have incentive to point to someone else, etc. That's just going to start a bunch of arguments. So far that's 2 things I've got you on that are incentive to cause town uprising aka Mafia Behavior. Come on, one more thing so I can check you on the list and start my epic post.
Oh so you don't want to argue about who the clues could point to because it would cause an argument, yet you're having an argument because despite being innocent, you refuse to even look at the clues which REALLY single you out.
Ace, if I wasn't suspicious of you when I read the day post, you've made me double suspicious with your circular reasoning.
I'm not trying to start a town uprising. I looked at the clues and made thematic links; you were the one that was most prevalent. You then said i'm a retard for doing analysis that needs to be doing. Interestingly enough, instead of actually looking at the clues which mirror you (because you don't want to get into a fight, remember?) you want to start a fight with me instead.
I find this incredibly amusing, since its hilariously contradictory; Why start a town uprising instead of bow your head for once and go "wow those clues ARE pretty bad for me, but they aren't against me; i know because i'm innocent. Let me see what I can do to resolve this confusion"?
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On February 14 2010 12:37 Ace wrote:
L there is no confusion to resolve. I'm not going to sit here and argue about clue content because it's SUBJECTIVE. I will debate on whether or not it's valid to even discuss over them at length since that is something that can be supported with facts: majority of games we play with clue discussion lead to lots of innocent death.
See. It's not that hard to call you out on your bullshit ^_^
The majority of anything that people discuss lead to innocent deaths on day 1-2. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. If anything, the discussion is useful to see who's talking, who isn't, and who's pushing against who.
As for the profile change, I added a picture because I didn't have one. Prior to the change my profile was the same with the lack of picture.
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Actually, I figured that a topic related to our current conversation should be addressed;
As the town, how do we win given the game format?
Faction win conditions:
The town must eliminate at least 8 members of each family AND must outnumber the surviving mafia.
The Gambino family must eliminate the Sumiyoshi family.
The Sumiyoshi family must eliminate the Gambino family.
This post says that 18 mafia need to die for us to win. Compared to us, mafia have 6 times our kp per day/night cycle. If we want to win, are we forced to rely on mafia cross hits?
I mean, seriously, given the format, it seems like town's main job is to out mafia with dts/try to soak hits on greens with medics, and just survive the mafia crossrape. If that's the case, shouldn't our main objective be to throw up as much clue information as possible? Unlike typical 1 mafia team games with clues, even if one team is deadset on keeping someone underwraps, its in the interest of someone from the opposing team to out them.
So, two questions that I want people to think about:
1) What's our job as town? Survive? Hunt mafia? You tell me.
2) How do we react to information? Even classic things like DT gambits are changed in this game; If someone from a team that's winning wants to delay the town a turn, he can accuse someone of the opposite team and be 'confirmed' as a DT for a day. If he's killed as a claimaint, his team is still ahead, especially if his move lowers his opponent's kp.
For 2) I think that information given to the town on the whole will be more 'true' in that there is no single underground group controlling information flow.
Anyways, feel free to talk about this, and I still think you're red Ace.
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On February 14 2010 13:04 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 12:31 Iaaan wrote:On February 14 2010 12:27 Ace wrote:On February 14 2010 12:18 L wrote:
Well the fact that you didn't bother disputing the credibility of the clues when you're 100% certain that they don't point to you is interesting.
If the clue set regarding the moonlight horseman doesn't apply to you, then who does it point to? Instead of analyse what appear to be a substantive set of clues, you've ignored them and provided the town with no content. because I'm not going to sit here and point fingers for no reason. I won't sit here and start revenge accusations just because the clues don't point to me. I won't go looking for people and say HEY THE CLUES POINT TO THIS GUY NOT ME - that doesn't help the town. It just invites one more person into the ruckus and then they have incentive to point to someone else, etc. That's just going to start a bunch of arguments. So far that's 2 things I've got you on that are incentive to cause town uprising aka Mafia Behavior. Come on, one more thing so I can check you on the list and start my epic post. I'm happy that you don't want to accuse people without a good reason, but the clues still point to you. Thats probably not enough for anyone to lynch you, but its still there. ... this is what happens with day 1 clue analysis. meaningless accusations, flaming defenses, distracted townies. please stop.
How exactly is your post any better? You've submitted a number of 3-4 line simple commentaries agreeing with someone else.
Feel free to produce content.
This isn't the same type of large game as we've previously had; Using assumptions that we used in other large games simply won't work out anymore. There's a LOT to talk about, but it seems I'm the only one who's bothering to actually look at the fact that there's more than 1 mafia team in my argumentation. I can't help but wonder why.
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On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote:
L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well.
summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position.
i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis.
about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings.
also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected?
On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways.
I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families.
Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has.
I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone.
Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters?
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On February 14 2010 13:48 Abenson wrote:
*lurks*
Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D
Just for future reference; In a game of this size, people are going to be very page sensitive. People don't like reading through hundreds of pages of stuff, especially when people die or they need to go back and reference arguments earlier in the thread.
Please do not make empty posts unless you really feel like you need to tell people that you're not contributing. Empty posts bump quality off the current page and bury important content-containing posts. Its rather easy to have an accurate finger on someone, then simply have mafia chum it up for a few lines and get it off of people's minds. That type of action has probably already happened more than once this game, given the amount of people being pointed at, as well as the amount of people posting 1-4 lines of content void garbage.
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On February 14 2010 13:56 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
L I wont spend time on day 1 clue analysis till like day 3, there is no point till then, i dont get why you love it so much
Because I'm one of the only people who actually hits targets before day 3.
I dunno, my record during clue games when I'm innocent is pretty sterling. I just end up not going balls in on my suspects and then they kill me off day 3.
Granted that town doesn't have fucking time to sit around granted the massive kp disparity, I don't see why we'd ignore the only concrete information we have about someone's allegiance.
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On February 14 2010 14:13 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:46 L wrote:On February 14 2010 13:34 redtooth wrote:
L, i think we should focus on who is the least suspicious mayor with the most potential and who that mayor should kill. so far i'm of the belief that the winning mayor should lynch a 'veteran' mayor candidate and i feel that the person should be BC. ver's post obviously cast suspicions on him but BC's response was very interesting as well.
summary of BC activity so far: he posts an off-tangent mayor platform (not too abnormal after his rhyming fiasco) and Ver posts analyzing his past mayoral platforms. BC comes back and complements Ver's post, voting him for mayor despite Ver not even running for that position.
i don't care how unselfish you are but there is no way you could honestly say "oh that guy is playing well so i support him" when that guy is trying to kill you. greens/blues want town to win but they also want to be alive when they do win. he even voted for Ver in the voting thread to further create an image of SUUUUUPER TOWN-ALLY. he then faded into the shadows and we forgot all about him, instead choosing to focus on day 1 clue analysis.
about that, i don't think we will ever have legitimate/good day 1 analysis, regardless of the number of mafia that are in the game. think of it from incognito's point of view. he sure doesn't want to get flamed for having obvious clues (i remember inertinept getting pretty heated for getting killed off by obvious day 1 clues) and to say he adjusted the accuracy of day 1 clues to compensate the number of mafia seems to be sort of a stretch. and we have to assume that for every clue he gives pointing to one family, he has to do one pointing to the other family (balance issues) so we should be seeing TWO sets of obvious clues, not one. like L analyzed before, there is a huge number of clues that can be stretched to point to Ace and can be deduced to have been "easy clues" incognito threw out there because of the high number of mafia but where is the other set of "easy clues" pointing to a mafia member of the other family? we are looking at mostly red herrings.
also, would all legitimate mayor candidates give a preliminary candidate for who to lynch in case they get elected? On the point of 2 sets of obvious clues; Why? Mafia members analysing can already self identify far easier than the town, and as far as the town is concerned, they need to kill the majority of the mafia anyways. I don't see why there would need to be a clear clue division between the two families. Additionally the clues that point at Ace aren't stretched; they're all linked directly to the same persona. To be quite frank, the moonlight rider is either Ace or Mystlord; I took the time to look over the entirety of everyone's profiles and those are the only two people who link to that character. The reflection and blindness thematics which are linked to the moonlight rider connect far more to Ace's signature than anything in Mystlord's profile; the only thing I can think of that Mystlord has over Ace is some blue content in the picture. Myst seems to link up to a different set of clues, but there's only 2 mentions, unlike the 4-5 that Ace has. I honestly don't see how after actually looking at the clues that you'd think it to be a stretch. Feel free to read the first post, develop themes for each of the potential mafia members, then attempt to link the moonlight rider to someone. Which brings me to another point; With 20 mafia, how often do you think we'll be revisiting the same characters? probably never. i don't know if you stopped reading my post halfway but there are a lot of other points i make, one of them about Ace's clues. it is very much within reason that if Ace were mafia, incognito would want him alive. giving Ace what amounts to be a guaranteed death sentence on day 1 is ridiculous and not likely. and if you were running the game, wouldn't you do an equal number of clues per family per day post? how else do you hold a neutral position? give one family an obvious clue and the other three hard clues? no it's very very very much within reason that incognito would do a 1:1 ratio (at least at this point with all mafia alive). and he DEFINITELY wouldn't do a whole string of clues that point to a veteran mafia without doing at least one 'obvious' clue pointing to the other family. if anything Ace seems more innocent because there are so many clues pointing to him. of course that doesn't give him guaranteed townie status (like what chezinu was trying with citizen). i think you are being absurd right now and am wondering if you just want him killed so you can take over the game.
1) So Ace needs to be innocent because he's too valuable a player to die off early? That's interesting speculation; its rather easy to try and twist a nearly 100% clue kill on someone away from that person.
Case Study: Truthbringer. I had to yell for 5+ pages in a small game on nearly 100% solid clues to get people to lynch truthbringer on day 2. Mafia being able to wagon against me in public opinion/changing the subject/arguing against the clue makes it very hard to actually have a correct clue analysis stick. Many of the games in which someone pins many members down, no one actually acts upon the good information.
Additionally; what's to say the mafia don't have more than 1 good player? This game has around 10 very good veteran players; town probably has 4-6, the other mafia teams likely have 2-3. I don't see why incog would exclusively post clues to people on their first or second game.
2) Incog might be throwing out clues in a 1:1 ratio, but there's no clear demarcation in the clues as to which personae belong to which side. The only thing that stands out to me as an indication are the 2 horsemen being together, and the oil igniter being on the opposite side of the house.
On the topic of other clues; There's a number of other clues that I'm pretty sure I have nailed down too. My initial estimate of 4 personae was a bit low; there's probably 6 at the minimum in there, but some of them only have passing non-linked references. Those references are much harder to get; The cheese factory, for instance, was always around, but not linked to a person. I'm just not 100% sure yet because I haven't looked over all of the profiles with those specific themes in mind. I wouldn't be surprised if mafia hit 2-3 targets tonight.
I don't look at people to get clues pinned to them. I use clues to build a persona, then i look to see which person is most identical to the persona.
3) No, generally people look more innocent if there are herring clues; clues that don't directly link up to a persona that vaguely look like they're pointing at them. Shadowdragon and the multitude of non-linked dark and shadow references, for instance, ruled out the use of his name as a clue. In the current instance, there's one horse rider who is thematically linked to Ace's quote perfectly. The clues are specific, and the clues are complete in their description.
The pushback I'm getting on fairly cut and dry clues, especially given that no one is bothering to actually talk about the actual clues, is fairly telling; I hit a nerve somewhere.
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On February 14 2010 14:44 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 14:33 L wrote:
2) Incog might be throwing out clues in a 1:1 ratio, but there's no clear demarcation in the clues as to which personae belong to which side. The only thing that stands out to me as an indication are the 2 horsemen being together, and the oil igniter being on the opposite side of the house. do you understand what i am trying to say? it doesn't matter that there is no demarcation of which persona belongs to which family. it does matter that you are implying ~5 clues (easy ones at that) are pointing at a single persona and that persona is Ace. and about the multiple veterans, it still means that one family would have one less veteran, a significant blow regardless of how many vets you have on your team. that would be a serious balance issue. as a side note, i'm sure some of you may suspect that i am associated with Ace in some manner. the answer is a simple no. i think that Ace is one of the best mafia players (imo second only to MBH) and he is a valuable town asset. actually, go ahead and check Mafia XV. Ace makes a call, L wants Ace to be killed, I defend Ace, town bandwagons against Ace, Ace dies due to L's assertiveness, Ace turns out correct on his call, L flips red godfather. L maybe I hit a nerve?
The five clues are all descriptions of a single persona, the moonlight rider. All five clues link to Ace. It would be an issue if clues linked to other personas directly linked to other portions of the profile; those would be indicative of herrings and would not be usable in the case.
For instance; If i said that the oil and fire linked to Ace somehow, that would be a problem with the analysis because of overbroad themes.
Feel free to find out which other character fits the thematic profile I've linked to ace's signature. That's an open challenge, by the way. The clues are pointing to someone, so if i'm wrong, they'll point to someone else, right?
Now, to toot my own horn; As far as veterans go, I'm the only one who uses clues extensively. I'm also one of the only players who has successfully hit targets with only 1 set of clues attached to them. Given that, and the fact that I don't think we can sit around.
As for me getting Ace killed; yeah, we do that often. Sometimes he's mafia, sometimes I am. You can look at other games wherein Ver and Ace kill each other off, or the game in which Ver and Qatol high five each other after a few posts and team up. There's plenty of prior examples of nearly anything you want to show.
So you wanted to talk about case studies? http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=93286 A game where I called out Ace AND Ver, get them both killed (both innocent  ) and then win (as town, because I was innocent too). Even Ace was like "yeah, I'da killed me too".
I personally don't think you're mafia even if Ace flips red; you're a bit too blatant in your defence. Malongo, for instance, would appear more red to me than you based purely on actions if Ace flips for a number of reasons.
Let me just say this again; I can typically tell when a given clue is a red herring; Not always, but generally clues that are linked to a given persona are specifically there for a reason. Most of the issues with red herrings that we've had have stemmed from the fact that we've taken multiple clues from different personas and amalgamated them. In the current instance, the clue pattern is nearly identical to the one that happened when I killed truthbringer on the first set of clues pointing to him.
So lets look at the actual game in which truthbringer got killed so that we can see how you do clue analysis: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=96429
Here's the Day 2 clue post:
+ Show Spoiler +Liquiville prided itself on it’s cheese, after all it was Liquiville’s primary export. The Cheese factory lay on the outskirts of the village and operated around the clock manufacturing cheese. Four members of the Mafia congregated outside of the factory and planned to butcher the occupants and ruin the towns economy. The Mafia entered the building and split up; two travelled alone while two travelled together.
The first headed straight for the control room. His quickened walk looked almost arrogant as he kept his eyes peeled for any sign of resistance. The Mafioso burst through the control room door and Shikyo leapt from his chair in shock. Disappointed that there was only one occupant, the Mafioso sighed and punched Shikyo in the gut, causing him to fall face first onto the ground. Standing above Shikyo, the Mafioso opened fire on his head. By the end of the incident there was more metal inside of Shikyo’s head than organic material. Satisfied with a job well done, the Mafioso signalled to his colleagues that the Control Room was secure.
The team of two got to work right away sabotaging the Cheese factory. As one sprinkled fox glove seeds all over the cheese, the tall lanky one kept vigilant in case security was alerted. Elemenope had been alerted to their activities moments ago upon hearing the prolonged roar which had come from the control tower, which then prompted him to look outside his window which overlooked the entire factory. As a security guard for the factory, he knew it was his responsibility to protect the exports at all cost. He launched himself out of the window towards the two saboteurs in hopes to catch them by surprise. However the lanky one was well aware of what was going on. A simple sidestep was enough to have Elemenope come crashing to the floor, immediately the other Mafioso tied him up and strapped a bomb to his chest. No one was able to help Elemenope before the timer ran out.
There was one matter left to attend to – the destruction of the secret Liquiville Cheese recipe. The task was left to Mr Julia, a newcomer to the Mafia but nonetheless determined to carry out his orders. Mr Julia had a nack for working out combinations and he had cracked the safe within seconds. He wasted no time in burning the recipe with his lighter. “What are you doing!!” cried fishball, startling Mr Julia and causing him to accidentally burn himself on the recipe. fishball watched in horror and amazement as Mr Julia’s burn wound began to change colour and pulsate. “Look what you’ve done!” exclaimed Mr Julia who came lunging at fishball. fishball fended Mr Julia’s first few blows off, but each blow became more erratic and powerful. It wasn’t long until Mr Julia landed a punch square on fishball’s jaw, knocking him to the ground. Mr Julia pounced on fishball and eventually turned fishball into a bloody pulp. Even though fishball was dead, Mr Julia could not stop and eventually, after his body began to pulsate, he passed out.
Four Mafia had entered, but only three had returned to the exit. All three of them instantly knew what had happened to Mr Julia and rushed over to the safe room to bring him back home. vivi57 was the last security guard on duty and was know well aware that the place had been hit by the Mafia. He was hiding around a corner, near the safe room, hoping the Mafia would leave him be. However, the instant the 3 Mafia passed the corner he was struck down by a large faintly warm object. He fell to the ground dazed and confused, but could make out 3 fuzzy shapes leaving with some kind of psychedelic object draped over one of their backs. The three Mafia noted that he was still alive and opened fire on vivi57 – the sheer intensity of the bullets severed vivi57’s body in two.
Meanwhile in Liquiville’s most holy temple a Priest was channeling all his rage and hate into the corpse of the recently deceased MrBabyHands. Uncertain of what his fate would be, the Priest knew in his heart that whatever the outcome, MrBabyHands must walk again for the sake of the town. The resurrection had begun.
Simply put, this one post, being the first post to even mention the character, was enough to get truthbringer killed. The method was to establish thematic links; The only one that was important? He shot a lot of bullets. Why was that enough to get him killed? Because after looking at every other profile in the fucking game, none of the others could be attached to it. When building a person, the success of your profile isn't based on how many links there are, but how exclusive they are. In the current instance, I see no one else that has the dark/light duality with blindness and hiding.
I can understand people being squeamish about killing someone who's a good player on day 1, but frankly town doesn't have the time to sit around twiddling their thumbs while being too afraid to hit a mafia member.
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[spoiler]On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote:Yaay I am lucky #51 in this game  . Thanks to Incognito for letting me participate despite the 50 person cap! There has been some debate about whether discussing clues this early on in the game is beneficial or detrimental to the health of the town, but I would just like to give my input. As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea. (That said though, I would not readily dismiss Ace as potential mafia as his quote is tightly linked to the dark/light imagery, but more importantly, his scathing post dismissed accusations against him only based on a "im smart and valuable, ur dumb" kind of thing..argumentum ad hominem?!) However, I do think that there are more subtle clues in the Day 1 passage that may be beneficial to discuss, because they aren't such broad overarching themes like light vs. darkness/shadows. Show nested quote +dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen. These clues stood out to me.. They both concern reflection/illusion/mirror-images. I thought that such clues may be worthwhile to look at this early on in the game because they are subtly woven into the text but refer to imagery that is quite specific. I was under the impression that maybe there would be very few users with mirror/reflection/illusion references in their profiles, so I looked through all 50. My findings: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia What is love? A simple reflection of the state of our condition; that which embraces the dialectical play between I-and-Thou - always immanent, but ever transcendent; always between but never entirely encompassed; always now, but also then and forever. Thus we find love in the here and now, as mirrors of our destinies, of our eternities. Phrujbaz The board is a mirror of the mind of the players as the moments pass. When a master studies the record of a game he can tell at what point greed overtook the pupil, when he became tired, when he fell into stupidity, and when the maid came by with tea. 789 I can see what you see not—
Vision milky, then eyes rot.
When you turn, they will be gone,
Whispering their hidden song.
Then you see what cannot be—
Shadows move where light should be.
Out of darkness, out of mind,
Cast down into the Halls of the Blind. I'm going to have to admit though that my search was not as successful as I thought it'd be. Only three profiles had references to mirrors/reflections/illusions, which may be a good thing, but they're all kind of a stretch/only loosely connected (especially d3's and Phrujbaz's). I am only slightly more inclined to 789's because in addition his quote "Tell your assassin to aim for her head, because she has no heart." may relate to Show nested quote +dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting. The phrase "most accurate gun" seems odd to me and I would think that it is a clue. Disclaimer: I am definitely not accusing these 3 people at this point in time. As a newbie to this game, I am not familiar to how tightly Incognito constructs his clues/how closely they're linked, etc. Would appreciate any veterans' input. This is an example of a very good post regarding clues. Argue the specifics, bring up theories and support them with information instead of speculation about the validity of theories in general.
[/quote]
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On February 14 2010 15:26 Ace wrote:
Come on L, you're really trying hard to force my death here. This is pretty bad play :/
When I flip green, you should just offer yourself to be voted off.
I think the moonlight rider is the most complete set of linked clues from the first post. I'm open to alternative explanations of who its pointing to, but no one's decided to balls up and go for it.
Including you.
If you flip red and I'm crowned as the best clue guy ever, I'll be sure to abuse my status and authority to get you killed off on day 1 using blatantly unrelated clues instead of incredibly damning ones in a future game. Sound good?
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On February 14 2010 15:32 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
ALSO NOTE:
Anyone bringing up previous games to justify ones actions in the current game should not be validated on that. If you are playing for town and analyze clues one way, being red does not mean you will analyze them the same way.
In the case of L vs Ace.
Yes as town, L nailed truthbringer.
If L is mafia this game, he would be trying to remove ace because is he is
A) a mafia member of another group
B) townie that could threaten his position
Yes, L could be a townie but he is still pushing to hard on day 1 to kill off one player based off clues.
I'm all for killing the moonlight rider. If you can show me that he isn't Ace, I'll gladly listen to what you have to say.
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On February 14 2010 15:38 Zato-1 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 15:12 madnessman wrote:
As others have mentioned, in the passage there is quite a lot of imagery regarding darkness and light. A lot of players' profiles allude to this in some form or another. So in this regard, getting carried away and everybody jumping on the bandwagon and pointing fingers at individuals whose profiles have a vague connection to these clues may not be the best idea. Well I'll be damned, someone actually made a compelling case for why the suspicion on Ace may be misplaced. Color me impressed. The fact that darkness and light references not only have to do with the twin horsemen that killed Qatol, but go on with the burning house, the shadowy figure that killed Incognito and the radiant being that killed Kennigit... it does raise the possibility that while trying to portray one mafia family with imagery of darkness and the other with light, Incognito unwittingly placed Ace in the crossfire. I am now prepared to admit that the evidence against Ace is insufficient. Well done, madnessman.
I went back and looked at the clues because 789 was brought up, and I decided to fully flesh out the moonlight rider because there are a number of directly linked clues that people ignore when discussing him.
Here i've bolded the relevant clues:
+ Show Spoiler +As darkness set over the town of Liquidia, a light, warm, wind blew across the land. The moon, now high in the sky, peeked in and out of the clouds and cast ominous shadows throughout the streets. The town was quiet except for a few straggling workers plodding home. The town had been exhausted from the last rebuilding, and many shopkeepers lacked the will and the customers to stay open through the evening.
Mayor Incognito peered out of his apartment building, noticing the tranquility that had recently come to the town. After all, the mafia had been swiftly eliminated last year, and was unlikely to come back. Or so he thought.
For the most part, the town was dark, excepting the moon which occasionally peeked out of the clouds. As Pardoner Kennigit prepared to retire for the night, he noticed that one room in the City Hall building remained lit. It was Qatol, who had been slaving laboriously in drafting a new constitution for the town. Sighing, Qatol decided to call it quits for the night. The new town constitution was almost complete; it only had a few details that needed to be straightened out. So he turned off the light and began his trek home.
Dreamflower, whose house was on the outskirts of town, was nervous at the sight of the weather outside. She was not comforted by the fact that shadows kept appearing around her house, although she knew it was only the moon behind the moving clouds. Suddenly however, she noticed two horsemen stopped on the ridge in the distance. Nowadays, it was strange for anyone to be out this late at night. Wary that the mafia had returned, dreamflower quickly walked back to her closet and retrieved the most accurate gun she could find, and parked near her window, waiting.
Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds. Dreamflower became more nervous, and pointed her gun out the window, waiting for the horsemen to approach. However, she was startled as she noticed a figure walking towards the horsemen. She breathed a sigh of relief when she recognized Qatol. But what was Qatol doing out so late at night? Dreamflower was puzzled, but was snapped back into reality as she noticed the horsemen were only a football field away from her location. Thinking quickly, she decided not to fire a shot, but ran outside to get Qatol to safety. She tried to run in the shadows, but was caught in the middle of the road as the moon pierced through the cloud layer and shone directly on her. The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react. She leaped to the left, and narrowly avoided death. But the second horseman just cackled loudly. Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly. In a panic, dreamflower ran back into her house to grab her gun, but it was futile. The ground felt moist, and dreamflower slipped as she ran through her front door. The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.
Incognito was almost falling asleep standing up, but then noticed a house in flames in the distance. Immediately taking action, he raced down stairs and called up Kennigit to take care of the incident. By the time that both Kennigit and Incognito were racing towards dreamflower’s burning house, there was more commotion in the streets. Panicked citizens walked out of their houses to figure out what was happening, but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside. The mayor and pardoner stopped in the town square, pausing for a moment to come up with a plan. But no plan would arise. The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square. Kennigit had time to get his thoughts together, and swiftly chased after the figure. But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen. Fearing that his end was near, Kennigit hid behind a barrel of wine, and was astonished that the horseman did not pursue him. However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.
So essentially we have two portions in which horsemen take place; the attack at dreamflower's and the kennigit incident.
In the first portion, we have two horsemen. The first is the moonlight rider. The second is the cackling rider. The moonlight rider has a number of defining features.
-Can blend into shadows.
-Has a spear.
-Reflects moonlight to blind.
-Can essentially walk through walls.
-Heavy enough to instantly kill people.
Secondary features which could be herrings:
-Got Qatol out of his house.
-Related to the moon.
In the second portion, we have one of the horseman who reappears. Is it moonlight rider or the cackling horseman? On my first reading I assume it was the first horseman, but it could be the second as well.
-Is quick or stealthy; He appears suddenly.
-Is blinded by the light.
After this, an angel appears who vaporizes kennigit in a shower of blue light. In my first reading I assumed that the horseman was the one that started glowing then did the vaporization.
Overall, I'm gonna have to re-examine the profiles, because its pretty clear that I misread two pretty large things (angel isn't the horseman and the town horseman might not be the first horseman). I originally thought 789 was a pretty good candidate for the moonlight rider, but not anymore after looking at the clues again. I'm going to run through the profiles again tomorrow to see if anyone fits this new set of themes better.
I'ma do that tomorrow.
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After looking at every profile again, as well as having reread the clues, I'm pretty confident in a few additional things;
Empyrean is the best link to the Angel. Just look up Empyrean on wikipedia, everything's there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empyrean
As of yet, I went through the everyone's profile looking for someone who has links to fire, angels and radiance and couldn't find anyone who had more than 1. Emp has all 3, and his profile is pretty much empty; if he was to have a clue, it would be from his name.
Ace and Mystlord are still the frontrunners (I'd pick Ace over Myst for a few reasons; Myst has a harder lock on the spear clue, but pretty much all of the rest favor Ace. The spear clue itself nearly completely exonerates 789 from being the moonlight rider too) when it comes to the moonlight rider, but its possible that they're both guilty depending on how the clues are attributed.
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On February 14 2010 17:05 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
L, saying things like the use of a spear exonerates 789 to me is a bit hasty. Wait and see if the spear is used again. In the last mafia game I was in, there were many irrelevant clues that people focused on. What comes to mind is a clue pointing to derfboy where the victim was sledgehammered, which was completely irrelevant. People focused on the sledgehammer and the description of the killer when the relevant info was that the killer sabotaged the victims house prior to the attack. I agree partially. I don't think he's 'innocent', but i think there's enough divergence between the moonlight rider and him to have that clue stick to him. The connection to blindness, the moon, him jumping through walls, the instant death on impact all seem far weaker than the associated links elsewhere.
The spear really was the thing that tipped me over the edge in terms of ruling him out.
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L please remember that these are Day 1 clues you are analyzing. We've never had clues this good on day 1 before. If the clues were garbage and didn't point to people, I'd have reserved my judgement.
I'm pretty sure everyone who's been in multiple of our clue games knows that the size and content of this day 1 post is not normal.
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So uh, who was the first mafia godfather that you're contrasting with BC, the OTHER mafia godfather?
Also: Empyrean is a fucking good clue catch. FUCKING LOOK AT THAT SHIT GODDAMIT.
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Also i'm sleeping now; Shoulda gone to sleep 4 hours ago.
Fuck you mafia, and your insomnia effects.
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So, the moment I went to sleep, my insomniac mind came back to the question that I think is the core of this game: What should the town do?
And then I realized that its pretty obvious; The town needs to not die, and the town needs to have mafia killed. But how can you accomplish both while saving blues? I kinda wondered for a while, but then It became incredible obvious; Fully analyse each clueset.
The idea is; If we can come up with consensus hit targets for multiple people per night, either mafia moves on them, or we do. With normal one team games, mafia members will try and debate clues away from their members, but given the fact that 80% of people are going to want any single particular clue to stick, we can be assured that if we have more voice posting less fluff that we can force them to shut up.
When going to sleep, my recent rereading of the clues made me note that there are probably clues linked to 6+ mafia in the first post, with 2-3 personae being 'hittable' tonight in my current reading. This got me thinking; if we figured out all 6 credible hits, mafia are kinda forced to push their own hits towards town consensus targets.
Upon realizing this, I came to the conclusion that Ver is 100% wrong; Discussing clues doesn't put the town into disarray: it lets town control both their own lynch AND night hits. The net result of persuasive clue targets that the mafia believe are that we BOTH save ourselves AND hunt mafia.
While we may want to tone it down near the end to prevent one mafia team from dying off, it might be possible for 2 sides to win this (Hosts, how does victory work? ).
Also, to reply to ver on page 27:
So my decision to run for mayor is basically, do I want to even possibly subject myself to that again (as it will affect my performance), or do I take the risk of letting another mafia get into power?
Sup with another mafia, dawg.
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On February 15 2010 03:04 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 02:42 L wrote:
When going to sleep, my recent rereading of the clues made me note that there are probably clues linked to 6+ mafia in the first post, with 2-3 personae being 'hittable' tonight in my current reading. This got me thinking; if we figured out all 6 credible hits, mafia are kinda forced to push their own hits towards town consensus targets.
Upon realizing this, I came to the conclusion that Ver is 100% wrong; Discussing clues doesn't put the town into disarray: it lets town control both their own lynch AND night hits. The net result of persuasive clue targets that the mafia believe are that we BOTH save ourselves AND hunt mafia.
. That kinda goes on the assumption that the clues are right. I don't think that the mafia would be "forced" to push their own hits like that, since they'll probably make their own decisions, but I do agree that the more good suspects that we have as a town the more likely they'll get hit by the respective mafia, if we make a good enough case for them.
That's the thing; Mafia can't sit back and not analyse clues. If someone brings up links which are correct, or brings up clues which are plausible, not only will the town be looking at them, but so will the mafia.
In the case that the target is wrong; that shit is going to happen. But is it going to happen at a rate of 75+%, which is the rate that a random hit will nail a townie? No. Especially not when you have 10 people who are probably going to be talking about the validity of those clues behind closed doors per team.
And yes, the mafia are forced to use hits if they believe that a mafia has been outed; town kp is negligible this game compared to mafia kp. This game essentially comes down to which mafia team can cluerape the other the fastest. The faster we help them do that, the better off we are as a town. The only possible things they might want to do is kill off certain blues depending on which arguments are being raised. Even then; DTs and medics seem to be more of a positional piece that moves between the two mafia teams than a direct threat.
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On February 15 2010 06:15 Bill Murray wrote:
ALSO, think about this:
if i was mafia, i would have people i KNEW i could talk to, so i would ask them how to post/who to vote for/when to wipe my own ass. i would also not have posted on here AT ALL unless they told me that it's ok. i would have been lurking in the shadows.
as it is, i've cast myself in an unfavorable light. do you think that the mafia would really do this?
no, they wouldn't. this is why that if you think i'm actually mafia or a good lynch target you aren't a strong player. i'm NOT saying i'm a strong player, but the fact that i realize this and someone voting for me doesn't would make them an even weaker player than i am. It would be much more advisable to me to lynch someone who is lurking in the shadows.... perhaps someone who hasn't posted in the thread a whole lot but is active in other topics.
Wine In Front of Me.
http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?title=Wifom
Bad defense.
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Chez claims DT during TSL.
What a jerk.
I'm pretty sure you aren't the DT and are claiming to get those people killed during the lynch/night, but sadly even if you are a DT, there's nothing that you know that we don't. I agree with everyone in the clue section with the exception of 789; i can't fit clues to him that don't fit Emp better.
As far as the behavioral issue; I'm still not 100% certain regarding BM. I expected him to be a bit more angry like RoL was last time he was accused given his level of skill and veterancy.
Redtooth wants to be mayor; offers the safest possible lynch suggestion and nothing else concrete. I've got a feeling that you're a DT, hatter or red. Leaning hatter, tbh.
unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so Getting under Ace's skin is its own reward. Don't really think anyone else warrants the same jabs, besides maybe scamp.
SCAMP START FUCKING POSTING.
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the reason i toned down my criticism of the analysis is because i realized how abnormally long and detailed the day post was so it is possible incognito did sneak in more content than initially perceived. i still don't think we can get anything good out of it but i'm willing to at least listen to L's clue analysis.
This is why I really dislike people bringing pre-conceived notions about how the game should be played from dissimilar games into future games. I talked about this last game too, but using the assumptions we used from mafia 2, for instance, in a small clueless game, seems absurd. Similarly, there's a lot of analyse and deconstruct in the current game.
So for everyone who's making assumptions based on shorthand that you developed in prior games; please stop.
If you don't think clues are relevant day 1 given the size and detail of the day 1 clues we have in our current game, feel free to say why.
Redtooth linked to incog's clue making strategy; Note that its pretty much the exact same thing as what I do; You make a persona (ie, he's a snail for instance, or he's a gundam) and then you simply add a few descriptors which are related from the profile. While its difficult to come up with a persona for some of the cluesets (ie. the hyena like laugh, or the cackling horseman), some of the setups in day 1 are pretty fucking hard to ignore. Empyrean, Ace and Mystlord all fit. Empyrean is the angel. Ace is the moonlight horseman, Mystlord seems to be the rooftop killer. If you have alternative readings of the clue I WANT YOU TO POST and don't give me a 4 line block of trash, either. If you're bad, that's fine; try to focus on a certain part of the text, or take someone's clue analysis and look through the profiles to find alterior fits.
Seriously, get to work you lazy douchebags. We're going to get cut to pieces if you morons just sit around.
Additional note; If i end up being correct on three mafia on the first day there will be much self-aggrandization after the game ends.
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On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour
Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing?
Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments.
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On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow.
Purely around Ace?
I've named Ace, Mystlord and Empyrean, and if you bothered to read anything since last night you'd know that I'm most certain of Empyrean.
The fact that I spent so much time talking about Ace's clues were because other people decided to do things like you did and attempt to discredit clue analysis without actually looking at the content of the analysis itself.
Once more, and its the last time I'll ask you. What specific clue link was overanalyzed? To add to the question; As a prior host, you should understand the basics of clue creation, so why did you ignore my request for specificity when you're one of the best placed players to deal with it in the face of my repeated attempt to get people to challenge the validity of the interpretation itself?
Perhaps finally; Why tell other people to compile lists? You aren't a shitty player. Make them yourself. I'm pretty sick of people giving halfhearted statements like yours praising a path of action then not doing any work in that path.
I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link
Make one. I did the majority of the work for you already. Feel free to make yourself useful.
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On February 15 2010 09:34 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 09:29 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:25 L wrote:On February 15 2010 09:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 09:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now. My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though. Thing is, in a game with this many killers, for all we know, incog could be going 4-5 members a family in clue sets, or he could be doing one per kill, etc... As people die off you also get a good indicator of whos red so on and so forth. Its not a fast process in clues, it never is. Over analyzing things like L is, can pay off for sure, but it can also create bandwagons that off us faster. The greatest thing it has done so far this game is get alot of people talking, and which has given us alot of insight into peoples behaviour Explain how even super rudimentary linking is 'over' analyzing? Actually, explain what you mean by overanalyzing using specifics, because it seems like you're trying to discredit some of the only tangible work being done without actually dealing with any of the arguments. I discredit the fact that you have centered almost purely around ace? You spent time linking almost exclusively to him. You want him to be red, or just want him dead. However, instead had you spent time building themes for each killer then linked to multiple people based on that, its not as bad. I say this as, by pushing for one specific person on day 1 clues linking everything imaginable to them eventually you will get something that sticks. Do your connections make sense overall, Yes, could they all be red herrings however, Yes. I would rather instead see a list of people matching descriptions of each link and then off the most retarded or inactive of the bunch. You just seem to be pushing a vendetta overall however, it makes it harder to believe or follow. I think that while the connections could be red herrings, we should lynch whichever connection has generated the most discussion, not whichever connection links to the most irritating or inactive poster. What good does it serve us to lynch someone who is connected to the clues but hasn't created any controversy, or any meaningful argument? We don't gain any information about other players, because no other players have made arguments about them. Lynching an inactive who hasn't posted a defense, or who no one has posted in defense of, is akin to picking a lynch name out of a hat, regardless of which way it flips its not leading us anywhere.
We shouldn't lynch the most talked about connection; we should lynch the most certain connection. These are two different things. I don't give a shit if someone doesn't reply if the weight of the evidence against them is overwhelming. The only thing your suggestion does is allow people the option of ignoring a topic instead of dealing with it, which is VERY, VERY bad.
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Oh foolishness, you posted on day 1 in a rather inflammatory tone instead of lurking until day 3 in an attempt to keep yourself alive.
I was going to call you out after scamp, but way to show initiative.
Also: 789, that's not a link to the arson killing you stupid twat. Its a link to the Angel's radiant flame killing.
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In retrospect, that reply to 789 was rather mean. Despite hating to put 'fluff' posts up, I feel the need to keep decorum seeing as someone has been warned before and apologize for the tone.
But still, try to keep up with what's being said for crying out loud.
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On February 15 2010 10:23 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 10:00 L wrote:
Oh foolishness, you posted on day 1 in a rather inflammatory tone instead of lurking until day 3 in an attempt to keep yourself alive.
I was going to call you out after scamp, but way to show initiative.
Also: 789, that's not a link to the arson killing you stupid twat. Its a link to the Angel's radiant flame killing. Why thank you good sir. Although I am sorry for letting down your expectations of me. If you are elected mayor, are you opting to kill Ace? I just might have to vote for you if so. Another point that needs to be mentioned. Stop cluttering up the thread with useless facts about your lives! This seems to happen every mafia game, and I'm going to go ahead and call it the "Nobody Cares Syndrome". The Nobody Cares Syndrome can be applied to those who make posts that nobody cares about. Let me demonstrate through example: NOBODY CARES! NOBODY CARES! NOBODY CARES! Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 13:48 Abenson wrote:
*lurks*
Can't think of any intelligent things to say/contribute :D NOBODY CARES! Show nested quote +On February 14 2010 14:45 nemY wrote:
Ugh damn it... reading some 7 odd pages trying to catch up... NOBODY CARES! Don't fall victim to the Nobody Cares Syndrome. The truth of the matter is, nobody cares about your own life. This is mafia, go read the introduction about how to play the game. No where in there does it say to make posts about what you are currently doing. Nobody needs to know that you are reading the thread, playing dota, studying for school, or blowing some random guy for drugs. People only need to know what's related to the game. The reason I bring this up is because these posts clutter up the thread. I cringe every time I have to read one of L's or Ace's posts, but at least their posts have substance and arguments in them and not "Lol ju5t got back fr0m hosting New Years party w00t lololol". For one it makes reading through the thread the most tedious job in the world. If I had the money I'd consider hiring somebody to read through the thread and pick out the important posts that I actually need to read. As a general guideline, any post that has fewer than 5 lines of text can safely be ignored. When "good" people actually need to go digging through the thread for evidence, it makes it ten times worse having to dig through these useless 2 line posts. Don't become victim to Nobody Cares Syndrome, the goal is to find the mafia, not make it impossible to find them.
Its either him or emp. I was hoping emp would reply so that we'd get more information if we killed him. I haven't really fully thought about which is a better lynch choice with respect to having mafia baited into not hitting town members, though. I should probably do that.
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Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.
In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.
BC i'm commenting on your post, had to get a word in edgewise because these two parties are silly.
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On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part. Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything. Clue Analysis: Day 1 Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice. Mafia A – The horsemen “Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.” “he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.” “Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.” “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen” “He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.” Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant. “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.” “The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.” “However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.” AnalysisMafia A I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used. The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective. I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote. I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked. The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly. This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture. Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad. The third one I have linked is Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter. Mafia B Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it. Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games. The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.
I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no?
That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other
I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel.
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On February 15 2010 12:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 12:21 L wrote:On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part. Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything. Clue Analysis: Day 1 Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice. Mafia A – The horsemen “Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.” “he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.” “Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.” “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen” “He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.” Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant. “The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.” “but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.” “The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.” “However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.” AnalysisMafia A I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used. The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective. I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote. I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked. The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly. This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture. Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad. The third one I have linked is Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter. Mafia B Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it. Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games. The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link. I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no? That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel. My issue with mystlord being used as the rooftop killer is that you hear the sounds of gunfire. As the woman from his profile picture has some form of blade, it seems to destroy that point. I could be horribly wrong, but its my own take on it. However mystlord does link in multiple locations.
I don't see how you rip someone's head off with a gun. Interesting observation, though. I didn't think the link between the noises and the hyena had to link directly to the rooftop killer, but they might.
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On February 16 2010 05:10 Caller wrote:
Seriously, what is the point of updating those things? Who cares about numbers, people can post as much or as little as they like. Obviously the mafia won't be stupid and have all their members be constantly active in case they slip up, nor would they all pretend to be inactive. They would likely be distributed throughout the activity spectrum, so just making lists of how many posts people made is ludicrous.
You could just summarize it as this:
Active posters -
DoctorHelvetica
BillMurray
Chezinu
Redtooth
Meeple
Ace
L
Iaaan
BC
I dunno some of the newer players very well so I can't pass judgement on their actions. Of course we would expect some of the "veteran" players to say lots of shit cuz that's how they roll.
People with wise things to say
Zato-1, Redtooth (just a lil') Foolishness (especially the part about people spamming shit),~Opz~ I think ~Opz~ always has valid points. I remember when I was running Red Army Mafia that he nailed a lot of people on clues, even if nobody listened to anything he had to say.
everyone else seems to be talking random shit if you ask me ~~~
You made an awfully large post about remarkably little. Especially when you have 4 total posts and you're normally a very active player who provides substantial content to the town.
With that said, I'm back.
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First things first: Being stupid does not make you innocent. BM, redtooth, both of you have essentially said "trust me because I'm stupid". redtooth admitted he didn't even fucking look at the information he was discussing for a good 10+ pages. bm is spamming like a moron and staying dumb shit while doing so. Objectively speaking, neither of these are pro-town actions, so why would you say something like 'i'm obviously innocent'?
Second: redtooth thinks i'm suspicious, so he wants to give me pardoner over mayor? LOLWUT? Pardoner, like always, is a stronger role for a mafia player to have because of the fact that you can simply set the town back a day or negate an entire double lynch. I'm not even going to bother rehashing the argument regarding why he's more dangerous, or why a day 1 pardon is retarded.
Third: lynches aren't for killing annoying people, they're for killing mafia members.
Fourth: Since it looks like I'm going to be the mayor, I'm going to kill Emp unless SOMEONE decides to take a swipe at his clue set. Which won't happen. Because you're all lazy jerks.
And so in the attempt to get this ball rolling and strolling, I have PM'd Emp the following:
To: Empyrean [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Hey
Date: 2/16/10 05:36
I'm going to kill you if i'm elected mayor unless you grow some balls and post in the thread. Also, i'm posting this pm. Toodles:
-L
Note how I said he should grow some balls: this message applies both to him and to the majority of people who decided to retract into abdomens across liquidia in fear of being killed in reprisal for doing work that the town needs to be done. If tomorrow I need to harrass half the town into looking at clues and do the majority of it myself, I'm going to, as they put it in the parlance of our times, trip balls.
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Nikoner, not killing someone day 1 is generally a box of dumb. Even if it makes me look bad, its better to have 100% confirmable information for the town to work with regarding associations and whatnot.
My only fear is that ZERO people have pushed back against my claim against emp, and a number of people have tagged along well after i took pains to make it clear i wasn't dropping the accusation. Either one of the mafia teams is using him as a sacrifice to get, say, ver, to look good by supporting my position, or emp is green/blue and afk like a moron. Given his vote, it would seem that he isn't afk, which leads me to believe that killing him will at least give me some information. I'm actually more worried about how much information regarding clue interpretation for this game I can glean from a red or green flip than anything else.
Like i said; Grow some fucking balls.
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Its not a wasted vote. I'd rather have someone who i'm pretty sure is a DT in office regardless of his posting mannerisms if the alternatives are just as stupid with far less potential for being blue.
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On February 16 2010 07:18 d3_crescentia wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 07:05 L wrote:
Its not a wasted vote. I'd rather have someone who i'm pretty sure is a DT in office regardless of his posting mannerisms if the alternatives are just as stupid with far less potential for being blue. But with a little less than two hours left, do you think your vote can actually make a difference?
Instead of asking me incredibly stupid questions, why don't you think on your own for 3 seconds? Yeah, no shit I think it makes a difference, otherwise I wouldn't have voted.
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I still don't understand how playing poorly makes you seem innocent redtooth, or why people would want to give you pardoner over pretty much anyone else.
I went hard on emp for more than 1 reason. One reason was that I actually liked his clues more. The second was that I figured if I let up on Ace and you, you'd both do dumb shit.
looks like i was right!
Ace recently claimed that he hasn't done anything day 1 because he's been fearful for his life. This is disputed in 2 ways: First his defense wasn't a defense. It was a dismissal. He didn't even bother entertaining the argument on the merits. Second; since removing pressure on him, Ace hasn't 'stepped up' so to speak. No positive suggestions, nothing. I'm pretty sure other players have picked up on this too, especially when Ace's own argumentation predicts that path.
Redtooth, similarly, keeps overtly claiming his innocence and is now trying to make a play for the strongest elected role by virtue of being a half loser. Why are people voting for you in the first place? Because you made a banner and readily admit that you jumped into an argument without actually looking at what its about? You pretty much admit that you were going to enter a shitstorm, but have done interesting things since then:
1) First you claimed that clue analysis was useless without looking at the clues
2) Then you stated that you hadn't actually looked at the clues
3) Then you backed out of the argument stating that you were swayed by my positions
4) In the past few pages you've gone back to attempting to shit on clues.
So it seems like your initial acceptance of my argument was bullshit. Either way, you stink. You stink really, really hard.
I'm still going to kill Emp 100%, but you two aren't even remotely close to obviously innocent. Vote chez into pardoner; if he's lying about being a DT, we'll know when the results of his checks come back.
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On February 16 2010 08:19 redtooth wrote:
god damn it i said don't worry about chezinu L.
I'm not worried about him.
I'm worried about YOU.
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Leave it to Ace to trash up the thread so redtooth can dodge a massive criticism.
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Ace just shifted the pardoner role to Ver.
This is why I wanted Chez as pardoner instead of the Ace/Red clown duo deciding where the strongest role gets put.
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I'm pretty sure I'm going to have to kill someone because of what just happened.
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On February 16 2010 08:58 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 08:55 L wrote:
I'm pretty sure I'm going to have to kill someone because of what just happened. How did I know you'd use that as an excuse? Paint yourself red more please.
Yeah, I dunno, throwing votes around, switching then switching back clearly isn't telltale mafia bullshit.
Seriously, stop up those leaky faucet eyes of yours.
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Oh, and welcome Empyrean. I'm glad you've decided to swing votes around instead of post more than once in the thread.
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The amount of concentrated stupid that some people are displaying is a bit too much to not have an element of mafia induced coincidence.
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On February 16 2010 09:07 Ace wrote:
Seeing L upset made me die during the day 2 lynch
Fixed.
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"i didn't think he'd get to mayor" isn't a valid defence. People knew what they were voting for when they voted.
A lot of you kids are in big trouble now.
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On February 16 2010 09:09 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:08 L wrote:On February 16 2010 09:07 Ace wrote:
Seeing L upset made me die during the day 2 lynch Fixed. It's been established Pardoner is the more critical position this game. Calm yourself.
Yeah, but I wanted to kill you with my mayor lynch and have redtooth forced into the unenviable position of pming me about why he would or wouldn't pardon you.
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On February 16 2010 09:14 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:11 L wrote:On February 16 2010 09:09 Ace wrote:On February 16 2010 09:08 L wrote:On February 16 2010 09:07 Ace wrote:
Seeing L upset made me die during the day 2 lynch Fixed. It's been established Pardoner is the more critical position this game. Calm yourself. Yeah, but I wanted to kill you with my mayor lynch and have redtooth forced into the unenviable position of pming me about why he would or wouldn't pardon you. Except if you killed me when I flip green you'd have to explain yourself since you said you'd kill Empyrean. But of course I'm sure you didn't really think I'd vote for you anyway. *shrug*
Except if I killed you you'd flip red. Shut your faucet eyes.
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On February 16 2010 09:19 Ace wrote:
How much are you willing to put on that L?
gvg championship cloak.
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And that's why I wanted to kill Ace instead.
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On February 16 2010 09:33 Ace wrote:Show nested quote +On February 16 2010 09:27 L wrote:
And that's why I wanted to kill Ace instead. I knew you'd use it as an excuse. Liar. You're clue analysis is WRONG. Just like I said it was. GG.
Excuse? I didn't pull the trigger on him, and I'm not going to first day pardon. Emp and I had a discussion in PMs regarding the game and it was pretty obvious he was innocent.
Here, i'll post them for you.
From: Empyrean [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: hey bro
Date: 2/16/10 09:11
meh, I'll probably end up reading all pages sometime in the future when I have more time.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
:/ had you said something I would have ended up lynching Ace ez pz.
But at this point you're going to die. then probably cobbler.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
To be honest, I wouldn't even have voted if it weren't for your PM reminding me there was a mafia game going on. :/
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
yo u town?
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On February 16 2010 09:38 Ace wrote:
So he convinced you he was innocent because he forgot to vote?
lol. Really you expect me to believe that? You're full of it. Give up L. You're clearly Mafia. Wrong on clue analysis, and "convinced" he's innocent because he said he forgot to vote if you didn't PM him. Right.
Its not him forgetting. Its his complete apathy. Green players are apathetic, red players generally shit bricks.
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On February 16 2010 09:42 Ace wrote:
I haven't eaten in 3 days.
Guess that's why you aren't suspicious of redtooth after voting him into mayor.
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On February 16 2010 09:50 Ace wrote:
My vote was on redtooth. He claimed Medic. Thats why I took it away. Then I thought about his motive for lying at that point in time and it really didn't matter because Ver wasn't here anyway. So me switching my vote back within a few minutes changed nothing. There's no suspicion there.
Maybe you should bother questioning the people that pushed him from Pardoner -> Mayor. Pardoner is more powerful than Mayor anyway.
Yeah, nothing suspicious about switching your vote twice 5 minutes before the vote ends.
Nothing.
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There's no point in straining yourself over analysis if we're going to have 6 kills and another set of clues ready tomorrow.
Or rather, given I have an assignment due on wednesday, seems smart to get it done now rather than later :o.
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On February 16 2010 10:18 Ace wrote:
Listen, for the last time my vote isn't suspicious.
I went from Redtooth -> L - > Redtooth in the span of a few minutes and anyone reading this thread knows I wasn't going to vote for L seriously.
How can you continue to question me but NOT look at the people that tipped over Redtooth in becoming Mayor? Come on, you can't say with a straight face I'm more suspect than yourself in that regard.
Oh, don't worry, they're being looked at too, but you so are you.
I'm not suspicious despite admitting that vote switching is suspicious.
The amount of double talk you vomit out on a per post basis is staggering.
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Lol, if incog wants to confirm this is what I sent him, he can, but this was my pm to him when he asked.
To: Incognito [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: Day 1 mayor lynch
Date: 2/16/10 08:46
depends who becomes the pardoner, so no
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
It looks like you will become mayor. Can I have a confirmation of your day 1 lynch victim?
Because I gained different amounts of information depending on if Ver or You sat in the pardoner position.
Oops, mistake on your part, redtooth. Ask incog if you want.
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On February 16 2010 13:18 Incognito wrote:Show nested quote +Cheating includes (but is not limited to) the following and will get you banned from future games:
...
6. Posting any PM you receive from a host.
I had to counter post after he posted. I am innocent.
Also, please don't ask people to pardon people who haven't been picked as lynch targets :/.
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On February 17 2010 06:56 redtooth wrote:
eh there seems to be some confusion as to why i roleclaimed medic. yes it ended up being a bad move but it wasn't absolutely impulsive and there was some thought put into it. one of the main reasons is that i didn't want Ver to be voted in no matter what. i've talked about that enough so i'll move on. the second reason is that i was going to die tonight if i wasn't voted in and given elected protection. for some reason a lot of people still suspected me of being mafia so there was a high chance either mafia would take me out. that gets rid of a medic and that is never good for town.
third reason is people wanted Chezinu (roleclaimed DT but unconfirmed) to get into office so he would be protected. if Chezinu gets elected then he would live but there is a chance i would die. if i get into office i would live and Chezinu would live as well because i planned on protecting him.
also, to DTs: please refrain from thoughtlessly rolechecking non-important posters simply because you have a hunch that he is mafia. rolechecks are the only way to form town circles so use them wisely. also as the game progresses and the clues become better the other options (either combination of cluechecking) become stronger and stronger.
I keep getting this vibe that moreso than any two other players in the game that you and Ver are buddying up. His PMs, both of your posts and a host of other issues make me believe this.
While I'm pretty sure I wont' be hit tonight due to protection, I think this link is worth looking into if I end up dying.
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On February 17 2010 10:41 Ace wrote:love you too Vivi <3
You don't get a GvG championship cape because I didn't kill you, ergo breaking our deal.
(also, I don't have one ).
So, 5 people died, none of them are mafia. That's bad for both mafia teams, as they're clearly bad at hitting each other, but its worse for us because we're getting hit for them being dumb. Then again, its more like, getting hit for us being dumb because they pretty much just accepted ver's "go rape list" and raped it.
I'm going to go read clues after I finish up this paper; maybe this time I can not fuck up like a champ.
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Incog, your clue pointing towards nemY was fantastically done.
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which means he bombed ver.
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I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy
madnessman
mystlord
phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
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Ok, lol. I am back.
First off: I may have missed the mark on Empyrean and Ace, but the amount of people sitting back when I asked everyone to brainstorm was incredible. I think I had a grand total of 1 person make a coherent argument against Ace, which I accepted as substantially convincing, and cobbler argued against Emp.
But to say that I accused Ace, Emp and 789 and only them on the basis of clues is flat out false. I admitted that Cynan might have been a good catch, and that Mystlord was a very good target. I also requested that Ver put bill murray on the do not protect list. There are others, but frankly the omission of Mystlord from the list of people I thought were guilty via clues is hilarious. I even had Ver add him to the list of people I suspected. If I'm guilty of being wrong, so be it, but don't assume all my targets flipped green, because more than half of the people i fingered day 1 are still alive.
On to today:
Why did I accuse the people I did 12 hours ago? Lol because they're fishy as fuck.
But lets talk about that after some preliminaries:
1) It seems readily apparent to some that there are two 'group's in the set of clues: the ridge team and the other team. I buy this theory for the simple fact that the ridge team has showed up twice and is identified as a discernible group. So i'm going to call them: Ridge Team and Meadow Team. Meadow Team is a shitty name, but frankly it kinda makes both teams feel like Pokemon editions, and that's cool in my book.
2) Incog is using a lot of herrings. Intentional, even. If that's the case, he's basing personas out of a consistent combination of profiles. A picture, a quote, whatever. If that's the case, then he's going to be strict regarding how he describes multiple element clues and potentially more liberal with single source clues. The Scythe/Spear difference should emblemize that.
Okay, with that in mind:
Lets look at der clues.
1) There are Six mafia members described. The bomb was the blocked on Ver or not set in the first place. The clues also seem to indicate that cobbler was hit once per team. There are a few conclusions which flow from this, most of them which are bad for us with respect to analysing why Ver was bombed if he was bombed. Prior cluesets normally involve the hatter blowing people the fuck up during the clues which didn't happen here, so my prediction about the bomb being blocked seems accurate and consistent.
Previous clues:
Moonlight rider's probably Cynan
Emp's blue light killer might be 789 or amber. I didn't originally think that amber came in a blue form, but wikipedia told me otherwise.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amber
If that's the case, I hate incog.
Today's clues:
The final paragraph, in my mind, points to nemY:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=nemY
The fact that things were discovered the next day fits his profile quote, while the uproar fits his picture perfectly. The connection between someone falling and a message inciting the town to rage also fits. I really want to see other possibilities for this one, because I think this is a really elegant clue.
White floating thing is either Phrujbaz or OhN.
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=Phrujbaz
Pretty self evident. The fact that its a meadow and the fact that the guy gets a runny nose point me heavily towards the dandelion seeds over the sakura. Then again, I don't live in an area with cherry trees so I don't know how they work outside of anime.
The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessman
Basically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though.
And last but not least: Mystlord.
THERES A GUY ON A ROOF AGAIN, WHO'S STANDING IN FRONT OF A LIGHT, HE KILLS SOME PEOPLE. DERP.
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Yeah you're full of shit.
There's no conclusive link between the rooftop killer in the day 1 clues and the actual murder. The guy was just running away from the sounds and died.
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I'd be happy if that picture inspired people to post, because shit got REAL SLOW REAL FAST.
Its like people only feel like they can post when I'm away and thus more likely to overlook stupid shit they say.
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On February 18 2010 10:39 ~OpZ~ wrote:
You sound like Ace now...
We probably haven't even seen all the mafia yet, and how do you expect us to come up with new material. Everyones afraid you Lucas and Ver will put them on his almighty "list." I'm not exactly the best at clue interpretation either. I mean, hell all I did was suggest Shikyo and Xelin were mafia, but my assumption was obviously too stupid and weak that it just got labeled spam. Damn you Lucas, damn you!
I'm not putting anyone on a list unless there are clues pointing towards you or you're acting flagrantly stupid. I just want to be clear; I have the balls to call people out, but I need other people to have balls too. Why? Because I'm wrong sometimes. I don't have a 100% certainty in this game and its pretty obvious that no one else does.
If Lucas is going to put up a post and label it as spam, that's awesome for him; he isn't the entirety of the town, neither is Ver, neither am I.
As far as Shikyo and Xelin: Shikyo goes afk to the point of him missing DT checks during games, so I'm not surprised he's doing nothing if he's pretty much any role. Xelin I've never played with before.
Shikyo's profile is retarded hard to connect clues to; I can see very few clueable themes besides 'metal' and the confusion/chaos thing. Neither have really popped up in the clues.
XeliN actually is a decent fit for the clue I linked to madness man, but only because there are 2 men in the picture. Then again, that's all incog has really needed in the past to form a clue, so its possible he's the culprit there.
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On February 18 2010 10:43 flamewheel91 wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 09:42 L wrote:
Yeah you're full of shit.
There's no conclusive link between the rooftop killer in the day 1 clues and the actual murder. The guy was just running away from the sounds and died. L, play nice 
Ok lol.
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So you put yourself on the medic protection list as a Vet and then claimed someone protected you when you should have been told you lost a night life.
So you're trying to pull medic prots and then lied to the town AND to someone else in PMs?
And so claiming this this far into the day is supposed to make you seem less fraudulent because you wanted, explicitly stated, the heat on you to die down?
Rofl.
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On February 18 2010 12:04 Ver wrote:Show nested quote +On February 18 2010 11:51 L wrote:
So you put yourself on the medic protection list as a Vet and then claimed someone protected you when you should have been told you lost a night life.
So you're trying to pull medic prots and then lied to the town AND to someone else in PMs?
And so claiming this this far into the day is supposed to make you seem less fraudulent because you wanted, explicitly stated, the heat on you to die down?
Rofl. I never claimed someone protected me. I simply said I was hit. It doesn't matter whether I appear less fradulent or not, I never have fears of looking suspicious when I am innocent (remember caller's mafiya? we had this exact same exchange). If nobody believes me then yeah this failed and I'll just keep doing analysis the best I can. But really in this scenario unless someone calls me a liar those actions you listed are irrelevant and can simply be reduced to bad play because I am basically a confirmed innocent at this point unless someone calls me a liar about taking a hit or protting me.
You're 100% right about you saying you took a hit and not having been protted. My bad.
Also the timing of your claim does enhance your credibility. Neither are factors I fully thought through. Need to rethink this situation out from both sides.
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On February 18 2010 13:00 citi.zen wrote:Maybe I am missing something, but doesn't the mad hatter have 2 bombs?
plants one per night. maximum bombs possible on n1; 1
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On February 18 2010 13:12 nemY wrote:btw L i like your clue linking to me, but unless you can somehow link "We invite you to make a holy pilgrimage to the town square today to offer a human sacrifice to the gods. That is all." to me then I feel like you're digging for nothing
Oh, so if I wanted to link a clue to you I'd need to have someone say something like "We invite you to.... IM THE DETECTIVE" prior to an uproar?
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6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes
7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes Very interesting how there are 3 vote 'bursts' in which 2 people vote one after another.
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+ Show Spoiler +On February 19 2010 01:10 madnessman wrote:So I have an incredibly short attention span, and with the way this game has gone, I can feel my interest slipping -_-;; It seems to me as though both mafia teams are discussing behind closed doors, and townies are not doing anything. I also have a feeling I'm going to get hit tonight, so I figure I may as well take a gamble and write this. Basically, I would like to propose to townies that we band together, unite, and vote in unison to lynch L. The basis behind my proposal is mainly behavioral related, with some clue analysis thrown in. These are my reasons: 1. The chances that a mayor/pardoner is a member of the mafia are extremely, extremely high. Here's what I wrote in a PM to DoctorHelvetica the day before yesterday: Show nested quote +i wrote a post on pg 65 (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=111913¤tpage=65), but to elaborate on it, the more i think about it, the more certain i am that redtooth and L must be mafia. mayor+pardonner are both incredibly important positions and gives whichever team (whether it be mafia a, mafa b, or town) who "owns" those positions an enormous advantage. the end tally was so low that a mafia team could EASILY get their candidate elected. there's no way a mafia team would let such a big position just slip from their fingers. itd be sheer stupidity.
it is a game of 30v10v10, but the mafia know who their team mates are, whereas townies dont. and with so many people abstaining, it was probably fairly easy for them to have their candidate elected.
you yourself were mafia last game, and ended up being elected mayor, were u not? surely u must know how much of an advantage each mafia team has over the town when it comes to elections
what perplexes me is that redtooth voted for L. is it possible that they are on the same team? could it even be possible for a non-mafia to get elected?
what are your thoughts on all of this.
ill admit im wary of sending u this, esp. since i just realized u kept switching votes and ultimately u voted for L. i did too though..so meh. i might just post my thoughts on the main thread..it's so dominated by spam tho im almost discouraged against doing so lol.
After looking at Foolishness' post though, maybe I am giving the mafia too much credit. Maybe there's a chance they played it too risky/were too disorganized and let a mayoral position slip from their grasp. But I think the chances of that are quite slim. A single team could singlehandedly have won the mayoral/pardoner positions given how many people abstained. (This doesn't mean that we should discredit the people who abstained/voted for other candidates though, obviously. As DoctorHelvetica was so kind to share: ) Show nested quote +Yes. When I was mafia our strategy was to throw in just enough votes for me to be mayor. When it was clear I was going to win, I instructed several mafia voters to change their vote to a competing non-mafia candidate. As we can also see from Foolishness' post, a mayoral candidate who played it pretty "safely" and didn't rely on a last minute influx of votes was L. But many of the last influx of votes were green townies, and therefore I think there's a better chance L is mafia over redtooth. I am well aware that I was one of the foolish people who voted L for mayor, but the reasons why I did so I see now in retrospect are quite foolish. I voted for him because (a) he presented himself as a leader with a strong, decisive voice at a time when everyone was confused and unsure (b) i didn't think his profile had enough substance for incognito to write clues on. with regards to (a), I see how stupid it was of me to jump on the L bandwagon. First off, the fact that he presented himself as a decisive leader is something any mafia member would do. To hold influence over the town is such an invaluable asset in this game. with regards to (b), this leads me to point #2. 2. At first, I thought that it was impossible for L to be mafia because his profile has absolutely no substance whatsoever. I believe he wasn't able to upload a picture until AFTER the game started, and his quote is "YOU JUST DON'T KNOW." this isn't a reference to anything as far as i can tell, and is SO little for incognito to base claims on. i now see that i was quite stupid to think that way. while his profile/picture contains absolutely nothing for incog to base his clues off, his very name "L" does fit the clues. L is of course in reference to the detective character in death note. let's read this part of day 2's passage: + Show Spoiler +When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. what characterizes L (the detective) in death note? he is extremely thoughtful, clever, observant. the way the mafiaso acts in this passage just REEKS of someone with L's character. he plots/plans/observes/is clever and thoughtful. he doesn't just jump into action but is very sly and clever about what he does. he cautiously checks the room first. he checks the papers to see if they're important. he slyly tiptoes up the stairs so he doesn't alert his victim. he cleverly notices fresh tracks and follows them. with regard to the whole darkness and light thing, L's enemy is Light Yagami. perhaps the whole L hides in darkness because his enemy is Light could account for this part of the clue. 3. so the pm that i sent doctorhelvetica -- time stamp: 09:53. next thing i know, meeple goes + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 10:40 meeple wrote:
My analysis:
...
Killer 5:[r]madnessman[/r]
Bickering and madness references
Dunno about the others yet followed by L who goes: + Show Spoiler +On February 17 2010 11:18 L wrote:
I think incog made the clues easier this time, because I'm pretty sure i can name like 4 people with 80% certainty.
nemy
madnessman
mystlord
phrubaz
Pretty sure i can find more, but that's my quick first reading. I'm going to be pretty blunt and say please lynch me if I post before tomorrow because I really need to get this work done and without the threat of me dying I will likely come back :/
BRB 12 HOURS.
and then later his explanation: + Show Spoiler +The two guys arguing seem to be madnessman. This one is a bit weaker than my other connections, but I haven't found anything that explains the key points quite as well: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/profile.php?user=madnessmanBasically there are two birds which are fundamentally opposed to each other, but more importantly, one of them is a completely fearless dick who does whatever he wants despite prohibitions to the contrary: hence guts. I don't really have anything that explains the pan, though. this is the passage in which both meeple and L reference: + Show Spoiler +d3_crescentia was getting ready for bed, when he heard some strange noises outside. It seemed at first that some bickering had broken out. When he walked outside, he heard some cursing, and shouting. Puzzled, d3_crescentia went to investigate. As it turns out, the man who was being yelled at had scrawled graffiti all over the man’s house. d3_crescentia attempted to intervene, but a cold menacing glare came over the duo’s faces. Before d3_crescentia could cry for help, a pan was flung into his face, knocking his teeth into his brain. d3_crescentia died soon after from internal bleeding in the brain. are you kidding me? ARE YOU KIDDING ME?! this coming from the guy who claims he's such an excellent clue analyzer with great success. because when people squabble/argue/draw grafitti, these are extremely telling signs of MADNESS. the fact that both meeple and L would out of nowhere draw such bullshit, terrible clue analysis on me a few minutes apart definitely caught my attn. i'd like to give meeple and L credit and say there's no way they could be so terrible at clue analysis, but why would they both suddenly do this? and within minutes of each other? my behavior has been in no way suspicious; if anything, i started off this game completely ignorant of the mechanics of internet mafia and extremely unsure/looking for the guidance of vets. therefore it is a possibility to me that doctorhelvetica shared my pm (in which i am suspicious of redtooth+L) with them, as both accusations sprung up soon after i pm'd dr.H. but honestly, i think it is behavior like this/tendency to point fingers and create suspicion without a basis that are telltale signs of mafia. SO i hope i have made a good enough argument that all you townies/other mafia team will consider lynching L tonight. of course i am not absolutely certain that i am correct in my accusation, but i've thought this through and i dont think we have much to lose. i understand that u all may be wary to lynch L; after all, L is pardoner and has the ability to pardon lynches. but what use is a pardoner to us who can't figure out the difference between mafia and townsman? as i've shown in #3, we have reason to believe that either his analysis is extremely flawed or that his accusations are heavily biased. there's no point in having a pardoner who MOST LIKELY will end up pardoning people who are mafia members. if he is a mafia member, he will pardon his fellow mafia members. if he isn't a mafia member, he will probably pompously and incorrectly asses the situation, and end up pardoning a mafia member as well. furthermore, the way this game is going down, it's now 25v10v10. we townspeople are STILL disorganized and disunited vs. two coherent, organized teams, and to add insult to injury, we're being picked off like flies. at this point, there's no point in our going after "small fish." we need to hit them now, and where it would hurt. like i said, i could be wrong that L is mafia, but i hope my reasoning has shown that it is worth it to make this gamble. in terms of calculated risks and potential gain, it is very very worth it. 4. on a final note, consider this: L claims he is such an amazing clue analyzer, but currently he is down 0/2. i dont base this as a reason to lynch him, as everyone makes mistakes. HOWEVER, if u scroll through the thread, u will see that he pushed for ace and emp to be killed/lynched both with extreme conviction. i myself am pushing for L to be lynch, but i acknowledge that there is room for error. L does no such thing. any towns person would hesitate and not be so ready to kill off another person, as there's a high chance (3/5th chance) that said person is a fellow townie, and killing off a fellow townie is not beneficial to the rest of the town. on the other hand, a mafia member would not be so hesitant because either way, as long as the person they accuse/push for ISNT on their team, he's either on the rivalry mafia team or a townie, both of which are readily dispensable for him. while i construct my argument on why it is worth it to take this RISK, L doesn't even seem to care about the consequences for the town if he is wrong. tl;dr: just read the bold points. we have strong reason to believe L is mafia.
1. I didn't base the clue link I found to you on your name at all. Madness is so over-broad that it easily leads to red herrings. Any indication of violence in the slightest can be interpreted as madness: the guy who jumps through a wall? normal people dont' do that. the guy who drops a SPHINX on someone? he must be crazy. Etc. Given that i whittled the clue down to the unignorable qualities it had: we have a clue in which 2 men who are in an argument somehow act in some form of unison for no stated reason.
Read redtooth's link to old incog clues. You'll find one about a trio of killers which was based on a picture of 3 asian women. Incog uses the number of assailants as the only basis for the clue in that case, which made me look for profiles that were exemplified by 2 characters. In the current instance, the only people I can see linking to the clue are you and XeliN; you have the bird on bird action. He has the wimp and the massive guy. Both involve dualities, but yours is starker. Additionally, there's nothing in his profile that leads me to make a combination with the murder weapon or the spraypainting. Given that, you're still my favorite target for that clue.
2. Consider this; Mafia are the ones who pick their night hits and they avoided half of my day 1 predictions. If the rest of my predictions are false, then yeah, I'll be pretty ashamed. Generally speaking, however, I'm satisfied with my clue link to emp because frankly I still think it was a pretty good find despite being wrong; the only element of the angel killer that I didn't account for was the blue quality of the fire, which others were attributing to bloodycobbler; I said its possible but unlikely, if I recall correctly, and despite being wrong about Emp, I was right about that.
So from my day 1 clue suspicions, 2 have been wrong, 1 has been right, and there are another 2-3 that haven't been verified yet. If we lynch myst, we'll know whether or not I'm correct on another.Granted that these were predictions made on the basis of a single clueset, I think my analysis was decen (albeit clearly not perfect).
More importantly: consider this once more; Mafia pick who they hit, and someone hit Ace when Ace was probably going to be relatively weak in terms of reputation and ability to push things through. So why hit him? Were they threatened by his 'do nothing and sit around while insulting people' plan? Or did they kill him so that they could set up suspicions regarding his death? I'll leave it to you to see which players have been actively pursuing this course of action, because there are 2 notable ones.
3. Lol L isn't the type to slowly walk through a room. that would be raito. He's the type to sit on a chair and spin while eating cake or sit outside in the rain. + Show Spoiler +I initially suspected shoCkeyy for this clue on the basis that his quote was:
"Nothing in the world is more common than unsuccessful people with talent, leave the house before you find something worth staying in for. "
I didn't, however, like the volume of herrings; was he a tracker? Was his persona a person who is engaged with food (as per the house description? Is he the TL horse? Is the comment about dark and light referencing the fact that he's out at night? I really didn't have answers for these. This was one of the clue sets that I was hoping to revisit on days 3-4 if other connections came up.
I am, however, happy that someone took the time to accuse me, because that probably means that of the 6-7 people I pointed towards today, 3+ of them are on the same team and are shitting bricks. I wouldn't see the motivation to write up a huge offensive post unless there was some if a single person had been cluefucked given the amount of leeway before losing kp. Additionally, the fact that you essentially admit that you're mouthing for DrH makes me think that you're probably innocent and that he's on their team.
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The clue could also refer to johnnyspazz... for both the spazz reference and his profile containing sonic/dr.robotnik as two enemies.
Oh shit, I didn't even see that gif animate. This is a very good catch.
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This makes me a confirmed innocent. No it doesn't. Makes you very likely as innocent, but it doesn't make you confirmed innocent. Kinda like how DT checking and having them flip blue is a very good indication that they're innocent, but not 100% certain.
I'd still claim based on your activity relative to how you play as mafia, but mafia can safely claim hatter, vet and to a certain extent medic as well.
Like I said in PMs, I'm not exactly certain how this wins us the game, but the lack of overwhelming handicap that a mafia controlled roleclaim (the side that knows about the medics/DTs will also have sway over the medics/DTs through ver if he's mafia, and thus they won't want to kill them) to us in the immediate future is very small.
If one side gains a monsterous advantage in the next 2 nights, we will likely need all of the townspeople to publicly declare.
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K, Mystlord, you're going to die and flip red. I need to eat dinner and would like to explain more but the clues are rock solid against you.
Rooftop killer, its time we killed you.
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On February 19 2010 08:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Oh, 2nd post edit: I meant to reply to Bill's post I quoted above.
We can be like 99% sure that BC didn't place the bomb on zato-1. Mad hatter kills aren't written in as clues.
Actually they are. But typically it involves someone dying AND BLOWING UP OTHER PEOPLE.
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On February 19 2010 09:02 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:Show nested quote +On February 19 2010 08:59 L wrote:On February 19 2010 08:58 iNfuNdiBuLuM wrote:
Oh, 2nd post edit: I meant to reply to Bill's post I quoted above.
We can be like 99% sure that BC didn't place the bomb on zato-1. Mad hatter kills aren't written in as clues. Actually they are. But typically it involves someone dying AND BLOWING UP OTHER PEOPLE. Yeah but i thought generally it was placed at the end of the Day post as a small aside? It all depends on the author I guess, but at least we agree that Zato-1 was definitely not killed by the mad hatter (in fact i'm not even sure why it is a point of discussion... i probably should have just ignored Bill. for some reason i am compelled to correct the trivial mistakes of others).
Read the cheese factory mafia, day 3? post. Mafia 8 or 9 or something.
There's a nice example of how hatters are clued in.
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OH HEY FUCKERS, WHAT ABOUT MY CLUE INTERPRETATION NOW?
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On February 19 2010 06:00 Phrujbaz wrote:
This is a very tough lynch (as also evidenced by the large number of abstains). I think we shouldn't (yet) lynch anyone that has made at least some useful contributions. That means we should not lynch the following people:
Ver
Bill Murray
Mystlord
DoctorHelvetica
nemY
Zona did post a lot of text, but not really much useful. He seems to have a lot of time though, so maybe if we give him a chance, he will turn those walls of gibberish into walls of win. I do not think we should lynch him yet either.
From currently voted for people, that leaves Faronel, Nikoner, and Xelin as acceptable lynch candidates, although I don't really feel enthusiastic about lynching any of them.
LOL TIME TO GO BACK AND FIND INTERESTING QUOTES FROM PEOPLE WHO DIDNT THINK THEY WOULD DIE.
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Clue Stealer! For that, I will be speedy and put down my clue analysis asap next day so that no one can claim that I stole from them. So there!
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On February 20 2010 08:53 Ver wrote:
I'm still in an awkward situation and comp isn't fixed so I can't really do much atm.
But really, 2nd night has had about 2 pages of posts, many of them fluff....is there any point to playing anymore? It's not like it's only town inactivity either, as at least one of the mafia families is disorganized and not particularly active. Half the people in the game show up only to abstain and it's not like all of them are mafia either. What's the point?
I'd still be interested if the situation was going to change but at this rate it doesn't look like it since the beta only began, and it's way too early for any side to have a real advantage either since this format takes several days before one side could really have a telling advantage.
Who's actually in favor of continuing to play and why?
Yeah the SC2 beta pretty much gutted what was a very active game. If we get like under 5 pages for next day period, i'm probably going to ask to be modkilled because of boredom.
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On February 20 2010 09:26 meeple wrote:???
I don't even know if I'm allowed to explain why I had to edit these posts.
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So clues thus far:
Quickstriker as the pale fork guy
Redtooth as the stain
Decafchicken as the gigantic rock dropping bird?
These are REALLLLLLY preliminary, but fuck you I'm claiming them first.
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On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote:
So here are the mayoral candidates:
BloodyC0bbler dead townie
citi.zen
l10f
meeple dead townie
Ver
Ace dead townie
redtooth
Bill Murray dead townie
DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi
So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh
I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_-
maybe more thinking later
On that note, I just went and updated foolishnesses old post with the new information we have because of the fact that uh... its a secret.
Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results
5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes
5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes
7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:46------------Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:53------------d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:58----------BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes
updated.
Nikoner stands out even more now; with so much green, and now a confirmed red voting for ver, why would he throw down the deciding vote after having voted for ver only an hour before? He also voted within a minute of a known red. His profile has graffitti.
Which brings me to another point; It seems the herrings that are listed in the clues are valid clues, but they aren't linked to the particular killer. We may have been very, very wrong about how we assumed bombs would be declared, as well as how double hits would be declared in the clueset.
We just lost 2 hatters. That's 4 bombs. There should be TEN people dead. We're missing 3. The clues dont' account for 3 overlapping hits.
This is pretty bad news.
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On February 20 2010 10:51 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2010 10:31 L wrote:On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote:
So here are the mayoral candidates:
BloodyC0bbler dead townie
citi.zen
l10f
meeple dead townie
Ver
Ace dead townie
redtooth
Bill Murray dead townie
DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi
So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh
I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_-
maybe more thinking later On that note, I just went and updated foolishnesses old post with the new information we have because of the fact that uh... its a secret. Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results 5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes 5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 6:42------- BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:28--------- d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes 7:54----------- infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes 7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:46------------ Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes 8:53------------ d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes 8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes 8:58---------- BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes updated. Nikoner stands out even more now; with so much green, and now a confirmed red voting for ver, why would he throw down the deciding vote after having voted for ver only an hour before? He also voted within a minute of a known red. His profile has graffitti. Which brings me to another point; It seems the herrings that are listed in the clues are valid clues, but they aren't linked to the particular killer. We may have been very, very wrong about how we assumed bombs would be declared, as well as how double hits would be declared in the clueset. We just lost 2 hatters. That's 4 bombs. There should be TEN people dead. We're missing 3. The clues dont' account for 3 overlapping hits. This is pretty bad news. I don't think its 4 bombs... Don't the rules say one player per night?
Two hatters. Night 2. That's a full 4 bombs.
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On February 20 2010 10:56 Nikoner wrote:Wow, can't believe both Phrujbaz and Midori were mafia -.-;; Show nested quote +On February 20 2010 10:31 L wrote:
On that note, I just went and updated foolishnesses old post with the new information we have because of the fact that uh... its a secret.
Time-----------------Action--------------------------------------------------Results
5:57-------------------------------------------------------------------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 4 votes
5:57------citi.zen changes from abstain to redtooth--L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:32---------L changes from abstain to Chezinu--------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:41------------decaf changes from Ace to redtooth----L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
6:42-------BM changes from abstain to Chezinu-------L - 8 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:27-----------------sidesprang votes for L-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:28---------d3 changes from redtooth to Chezinu-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 4 votes
7:54-----------infundibulum votes for Ver--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 5 votes
7:55---------Nikoner changes from abstain to Ver------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:10----------------Zona abstains--------------------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:45-----------------redtooth claims medic--------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:46------------Ace changes from redtooth to L-----------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 5 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:49-----------------meeple votes for redtooth---------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:52---------------tredmasta changes to Ver----------------L - 10 votes; redtooth - 6 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:53------------d3 changes from Chezinu to redtooth---L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 7 votes
8:55------------Nikoner changes from Ver to abstain----L - 10 votes; redtooth - 7 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:55---------- Ace changes from L to redtooth--------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 8 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:57---------- Empyrean votes for redtooth-------------------L - 9 votes; redtooth - 9 votes; Ver - 6 votes
8:58----------BM changes from Chezinu to redtooth-----L - 9 votes; redtooth - 10 votes; Ver - 6 votes
updated.
Nikoner stands out even more now; with so much green, and now a confirmed red voting for ver, why would he throw down the deciding vote after having voted for ver only an hour before? He also voted within a minute of a known red. His profile has graffitti.
Which brings me to another point; It seems the herrings that are listed in the clues are valid clues, but they aren't linked to the particular killer. We may have been very, very wrong about how we assumed bombs would be declared, as well as how double hits would be declared in the clueset.
We just lost 2 hatters. That's 4 bombs. There should be TEN people dead. We're missing 3. The clues dont' account for 3 overlapping hits.
This is pretty bad news.
I wasn't hopping on that particular bandwagon. Might wanna ask Tredmasta a thing or two as well. Also, the Show nested quote +Shikyo did not move a muscle as a dull fork flew toward his face and plunged into his left temple. However, the killer was shocked to see two bombs explode in the field nearby, and warily began to sneak away from the crime scene as the debris crunched below his feet. When he was but fifty yards away, he heard a large tree fall overhead, smashing the Shikyo’s shack to pieces and turning Shikyo to pulp. accounts for exactly 3 missing kills - two bombs exploding in a field and presumably doing nothing, since the other bomb hits were depicted in a way that rules them out from happening in a field, and it hints at Shikyo taking two hits, one with a dull fork and the other one with someone cutting the tree so it'd wreck his shack.
Not exactly; the bombs that explode could have been those which are mentioned later. More importantly, it seems there was a small error in the clue writing, so frankly I have no fucking idea what I can trust at this point.
If you're right about the double hit, though, which I'm not entirely sold on, then tree.hugger seems to be very implicated as his picture is someone standing on a tree stump and his name is related as well.
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On February 20 2010 11:15 Nikoner wrote:Show nested quote +Pleased to see two Gambinos gone for good, DoctorHelvetica sensed that things would naturally come to good order. Unfortunately for him, however, his peaceful thoughts were interrupted as a bomb exploded under the foundation of his house, which came crashing down on top of him. Those are three bombs right here. Bill Murray's death was somewhat unclear, I admit, so maybe he had two bombs on him, but after reading the examples above, I'm not entirely certain.
If helvetica was bombed and shikyo didn't bother placing any of his bombs, one of the hits is still missing; potentially one is tied up with shikyo
I don't understand why Ver thinks the hit is on Helvetica when it seems like Shikyo has two hits on him.
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On February 20 2010 11:32 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2010 11:30 L wrote:On February 20 2010 11:15 Nikoner wrote:the killer was shocked to see two bombs explode in the field nearby Pleased to see two Gambinos gone for good, DoctorHelvetica sensed that things would naturally come to good order. Unfortunately for him, however, his peaceful thoughts were interrupted as a bomb exploded under the foundation of his house, which came crashing down on top of him. Those are three bombs right here. Bill Murray's death was somewhat unclear, I admit, so maybe he had two bombs on him, but after reading the examples above, I'm not entirely certain. If helvetica was bombed and shikyo didn't bother placing any of his bombs, one of the hits is still missing; potentially one is tied up with shikyo I don't understand why Ver thinks the hit is on Helvetica when it seems like Shikyo has two hits on him. Bill Murray was bombed no?
Helvetica and Murray seem to have been bombed. Helvetica has pretty much no clues attached to him.
There are 5 kills besides those 2 with 6 mafia kp. There is a hit missing. Someone got hit twice or someone protted something.
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Dunno why we're not killing scamp when everyone agrees he's the first clue. He's also pulling a scamp classing "shut the fuck up and win by doing nothing" mafia play.
More importantly: If no one can find something else for the stain killer, we're going to have to kill redtooth.
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I still don't see why anyone but scamp is being targetted. He's by far the best clue match, he's playing behaviorally identical to EVERY GAME THAT HE'S BEEN MAFIA and he's not even bothering to try and defend himself.
Frankly everyone who's pushing votes onto tree hugger when he's got far weaker clues and less behavioral tells is either listening to Ver blindly or trying to swing conversation in a way so that scamp is ignored and gets off the hook for today. Not going to work, sorry.
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On February 21 2010 05:33 Iaaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote:
So here are the mayoral candidates:
BloodyC0bbler dead townie
citi.zen
l10f
meeple dead townie
Ver
Ace dead townie
redtooth
Bill Murray dead townie
DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi
So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh
I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_-
maybe more thinking later interesting how you left L out, and L fails to correct you. I think we established that pardoner would be the role the mafia would want. How suspicious o: Also, I voted for decafchicken because he is acting the exact same way he did the last game I played with him when he was mafia. I don't think hes the best person to vote for, I think that Scamp probably is. I will change my vote to scamp if things get close towards the end.
This is actually not the first time someone does something like that in this game and leaves me off a list.
A few people seem to be trying to take shots at me from the dark like that.
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On February 21 2010 06:07 Fishball wrote:And now this happens. How oh so convenient.
I'm pretty sure he's mafia too, but I haven't played with him before and have no idea what tells he might have.
Scamp, on the other hand, has a huge mafia tell; He doesn't post shit. He isn't posting shit. And if he does post shit in response to this, its a bit too late. I've called out scamp while he was mafia in like 4 games including this one, including one in which he was a suicide bomber and bombed me. Maybe its a personal thing, but I don't want to see him suvive the night.
In other news; Can't we double lynch or something?
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On February 21 2010 06:22 Versatile wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 02:24 Foolishness wrote:On February 20 2010 15:50 tree.hugger wrote:My activity is pretty easily explained, I'm currently in a production of Marat/Sade which is now in tech week. I have barely enough time to read this thread, let alone do the wonderful clue and behavioral analysis that this game has shown so far. Doesn't mean I'm not happy to see such a bountiful harvest of red, due to the diligent labor this thread has produced. NOBODY CARESThe very least you could do is to try to defend yourself here. Ver has posted ample evidence indicating how suspicious you are based on your behavior, and your retaliation is "oh sorry i'm so inactive waa waa". Guess what? NOBODY CARES! You have yet to deny any claim that you are mafia. Considering Ver has the inside scoop on the town it's much more sensible we listen to him at this point. I was hoping that somewhat else would be observant enough, but since everyone playing seems to have the attention span of a four year old: a bodyguard is dead!. What does this mean? One of the mafia substituted a member in. This could mean a variety of things we must look out for. We don't know which family substituted the member in, and it's very possible that even more of the bodyguards are mafia. I'm glad someone else saw this!! The rules say the Mayor can substitute their family members for BGs, and if you look @ the first post, there are 3/4 of BGs left, but no blues are marked as BGs. any answer for this, redtooth? also, my top suspect for now is L. in the beginning, he was trying to attribute clues to ace and Dr. H was backing him up on this; lo and behold, ace is green and Dr. H is red.
Uh, actually, the rules don't say that. they say that either family before the first day ends can select people to put in as bodyguards.
Each mafia family has the option, by the time of the Mayor election, to substitute up to two of their members for Bodyguards.
As far as the Ace thing; 1) Look how the thing started; Someone basically took one of my remarks and upped the ante. 2) Ver wanted me to push Ace. 3) I wanted to get a read on redtooth, who's been afk for like a year and now has a clue stuck to him. I also thought nemY and Empyrean were mafia.
So if someone can;
Someone find someone who attaches to the stain killer. The only people I can see being fingered by the clue are redtooth (which is is horrendous bad) via ketchup stain, or meeple because he basically has what I'd imagine would be the end result of the stain spreading.
Frankly, i'm not 100% sure on either, but no one's even bothering to talk about it which is a good indicator that mafia are going to try and use the low activity in the thread to just ignore threats to them.
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In other news; we need more people to post :/
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On February 21 2010 06:43 Fishball wrote:
If I were to take a stab at the 3 primary suspects right now (tree.hugger, johnnyspazz, Scamp), this is how I would see it.
0% for least convincing, 100% for very convincing
tree.hugger (0%? Clues, 70% Behavioral)
johnnyspazz (90% Clues, 80% Behavioral)
Scamp (60% Clues, 40% Behavioral) Maybe 90% Behavioral for L
Scamp's clues are very, very well done and he's like 95% behavioral for me. Seriously, go look at any game he's been in.
Tree.hugger does have clues against him, but they're like 40% or so. There's references to tree branchs during phrubaz's killing and there's the cut tree (stump in his profile) in the fork killer, but I'm not entirely sure that these things can be attributed to him because they're also related to ohN.
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Oh, and that reminds me.
We need to vote for a double lynch today to get one tomorrow, so VOTE FOR DOUBLE LYNCH. we have a surplus of suspects and a dearth of town killing power.
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On February 21 2010 07:03 Versatile wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 06:32 L wrote:On February 21 2010 06:22 Versatile wrote:On February 21 2010 02:24 Foolishness wrote:On February 20 2010 15:50 tree.hugger wrote:My activity is pretty easily explained, I'm currently in a production of Marat/Sade which is now in tech week. I have barely enough time to read this thread, let alone do the wonderful clue and behavioral analysis that this game has shown so far. Doesn't mean I'm not happy to see such a bountiful harvest of red, due to the diligent labor this thread has produced. NOBODY CARESThe very least you could do is to try to defend yourself here. Ver has posted ample evidence indicating how suspicious you are based on your behavior, and your retaliation is "oh sorry i'm so inactive waa waa". Guess what? NOBODY CARES! You have yet to deny any claim that you are mafia. Considering Ver has the inside scoop on the town it's much more sensible we listen to him at this point. I was hoping that somewhat else would be observant enough, but since everyone playing seems to have the attention span of a four year old: a bodyguard is dead!. What does this mean? One of the mafia substituted a member in. This could mean a variety of things we must look out for. We don't know which family substituted the member in, and it's very possible that even more of the bodyguards are mafia. I'm glad someone else saw this!! The rules say the Mayor can substitute their family members for BGs, and if you look @ the first post, there are 3/4 of BGs left, but no blues are marked as BGs. any answer for this, redtooth? also, my top suspect for now is L. in the beginning, he was trying to attribute clues to ace and Dr. H was backing him up on this; lo and behold, ace is green and Dr. H is red. Uh, actually, the rules don't say that. they say that either family before the first day ends can select people to put in as bodyguards. Each mafia family has the option, by the time of the Mayor election, to substitute up to two of their members for Bodyguards. As far as the Ace thing; 1) Look how the thing started; Someone basically took one of my remarks and upped the ante. 2) Ver wanted me to push Ace. 3) I wanted to get a read on redtooth, who's been afk for like a year and now has a clue stuck to him. I also thought nemY and Empyrean were mafia. So if someone can; Someone find someone who attaches to the stain killer. The only people I can see being fingered by the clue are redtooth (which is is horrendous bad) via ketchup stain, or meeple because he basically has what I'd imagine would be the end result of the stain spreading. Frankly, i'm not 100% sure on either, but no one's even bothering to talk about it which is a good indicator that mafia are going to try and use the low activity in the thread to just ignore threats to them. i thought you were a supposedly good player? why would you do something someone else (Ver) told you to, so early in the game, not knowing of he is mafia or innocent, when the blame would clearly come back to you? just as it has now. how the hell does that make sense?
I thought Ace was mafia too, and if he wasn't I sure as fuck wanted to know how redtooth would have reacted to it given his chummy disposition towards Ace. I was kinda hoping to use the mayoral lynch on Ace while Redtooth would be pardoner while saying I wanted to kill emp in the thread to see how redtooth would react.
Also, blindly trust ver? Me? Are you joking? Go read the thread instead of saying afk until day 3 before jumping in with accusations.
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On February 21 2010 07:18 madnessman wrote:Show nested quote +On February 20 2010 10:17 Caller wrote:
So here are the mayoral candidates:
BloodyC0bbler dead townie
citi.zen
l10f
meeple dead townie
Ver
Ace dead townie
redtooth
Bill Murray dead townie
DoctorHelvetica dead sumiyoshi
So now we're down to citi.zen, l10f, Ver, and redtooth. I'm betting at least one of these guys is scummy. I doubt it's Ver, redtooth's been afk, citi.zen's still been contributing, and l10f has been afk. meh
I would contribute more but watching people play SC2 is just too big of a priority right now -_-
maybe more thinking later Wtf?? Did I miss something? When did meeple die lol
He didn't.
Caller made a really bad list.
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On February 21 2010 08:38 Scamp wrote:
I don't really have a defense for my activity other than SC2 beta, so I can certainly agree with L's case regarding my behavior. I have sent out more PMs than usual this game, but obviously most people can't see that.
However, I would certainly like to point out that the clue analysis toward me has been flimsy at best, and the only thing pointing toward me that sticks is the presence of sewage. Nothing is indicating anything being blocked as far as I can tell, and whoever mentioned a cat knocking something over is also ignoring the grunting and panting sounds.
L, stick on me if you want, but you were elected on the basis of actively hunting out the truth. The reason I voted for you is so you could do just that. So please don't just tunnel on me, there's got to be other candidates you heavily suspect especially if you're going for a double lynch next time.
I'm not, but given the amount of people who straight wagoned tree.hugger, and given the fact that I'm not 100% certain of my clues on him.
I can fit ohn, treehugger, vivi AND quickstriker to that same clue, and none of them fit perfectly depending on what you pick as the herrings in that clue.
That said, given our pechant for having a billion abstains, tree.hugger will probably die anyways.
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On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy.
So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town?
Please be detailed and make it quick.
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On February 21 2010 09:06 redtooth wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 09:04 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy. So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town? Please be detailed and make it quick. well they wanted to be in the town circle. they gave GF to SM, who's only known to post lists, and put him in BG position. i would assume the only reason why is to get a list of blues and knock them out. and yes i was intentionally being provocative in my last post.
That's the wrong answer.
You just admitted to being mafia. Thanks.
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K, so, redtooth essentially has decided to take his campaign to pms. I'm not sure why, but that indicates that he's pretty fucking confident the town won't kill him. Why? Because he's got a train of mafia to vote against anything he does and he has 3 votes himself.
I initially wanted to put the ketchup clue out there just to see how redtooth would react, and he essentially handed himself to us on a silver platter.
Lynch Redtooth.
If he flips blue, feel free to kill me tomorrow. This isn't day 1. Time to go in with balls.
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On February 21 2010 09:28 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 09:26 L wrote:
K, so, redtooth essentially has decided to take his campaign to pms. I'm not sure why, but that indicates that he's pretty fucking confident the town won't kill him. Why? Because he's got a train of mafia to vote against anything he does and he has 3 votes himself.
I initially wanted to put the ketchup clue out there just to see how redtooth would react, and he essentially handed himself to us on a silver platter.
Lynch Redtooth.
If he flips blue, feel free to kill me tomorrow. This isn't day 1. Time to go in with balls. DON"T KILL MY MEDIC!!! Two can still win with two mafia on each team!
If Ver isn't mafia, he can easily place someone else on you in the case that redtooth is legit. He however, isn't, and in all likelihood, neither are you.
But I guess if that's the case, when you told me redtooth was your mafia contact you might have been lying. That said, why would you hide that until 30 minutes ago?
Man, this is what we get for not lynching all claimants for a few games :/.
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On February 21 2010 09:54 Iaaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 09:07 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:06 redtooth wrote:On February 21 2010 09:04 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy. So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town? Please be detailed and make it quick. well they wanted to be in the town circle. they gave GF to SM, who's only known to post lists, and put him in BG position. i would assume the only reason why is to get a list of blues and knock them out. and yes i was intentionally being provocative in my last post. That's the wrong answer. You just admitted to being mafia. Thanks. I think I missed something, how does this prove redtooth is mafia? not that I don't suspect him, but I don't see how this proves he is mafia. Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I certainly agree.
As for me posting; I've been moving and such so I can only come online when go to my girlfriends house. I really haven't been able to be active that much, but I'm still reading and doing my own clue analysis. But, damn, DrH? I seriously thought he would of been a blue :\ At least I was hoping he was. And what I see here is someone trying to take suspicion off of themselves.
Because unless redtooth is mafia, he doesn't know which team has been hitting more town members apart from the 1 hit discrepancy. The manner in which he articulated his conviction basically flat out states that he knows something that he wouldn't know if he was a towns person.
Redtooth hasn't even bothered to try to defend himself; the bulk of his argument is that he believed sugi was part of some conspiracy to get into a town circle. Why would he taunt the mafia as town anyways? What's the purpose of this line?
I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth admits he hasn't thought the situation through, he he's posting from the hip, so to speak. So if he's posting from the hip, why wouldn't he address both mafia teams together and say something akin to: "why are you mafia guys hitting so many townspeople; go hit each other!"? Well, its pretty obvious, he's sumiyoshi and he's taking a jab at the other team because he knows which hits his team is responsible for, and he has a general idea about which hits the other team is responsible for (sans bombs, etc.).
Also; Chez was joking and trying to say that if redtooth was mafia that he'd have contacted him?
Doesn't seem like it here:
From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: Clues
Date: 2/21/10 09:09
Ding Ding
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Was it redtooth? Because he just admitted to being mafia.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Psh, me work with Ver? yeah right! My mystery mafia contact wasn't Ver.. keep trying!
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On February 21 2010 10:46 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 10:10 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:54 Iaaan wrote:On February 21 2010 09:07 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:06 redtooth wrote:On February 21 2010 09:04 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy. So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town? Please be detailed and make it quick. well they wanted to be in the town circle. they gave GF to SM, who's only known to post lists, and put him in BG position. i would assume the only reason why is to get a list of blues and knock them out. and yes i was intentionally being provocative in my last post. That's the wrong answer. You just admitted to being mafia. Thanks. I think I missed something, how does this prove redtooth is mafia? not that I don't suspect him, but I don't see how this proves he is mafia. On February 21 2010 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I certainly agree.
As for me posting; I've been moving and such so I can only come online when go to my girlfriends house. I really haven't been able to be active that much, but I'm still reading and doing my own clue analysis. But, damn, DrH? I seriously thought he would of been a blue :\ At least I was hoping he was. And what I see here is someone trying to take suspicion off of themselves. Because unless redtooth is mafia, he doesn't know which team has been hitting more town members apart from the 1 hit discrepancy. The manner in which he articulated his conviction basically flat out states that he knows something that he wouldn't know if he was a towns person. Redtooth hasn't even bothered to try to defend himself; the bulk of his argument is that he believed sugi was part of some conspiracy to get into a town circle. Why would he taunt the mafia as town anyways? What's the purpose of this line? I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth admits he hasn't thought the situation through, he he's posting from the hip, so to speak. So if he's posting from the hip, why wouldn't he address both mafia teams together and say something akin to: "why are you mafia guys hitting so many townspeople; go hit each other!"? Well, its pretty obvious, he's sumiyoshi and he's taking a jab at the other team because he knows which hits his team is responsible for, and he has a general idea about which hits the other team is responsible for (sans bombs, etc.). Also; Chez was joking and trying to say that if redtooth was mafia that he'd have contacted him? Doesn't seem like it here: From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Clues Date: 2/21/10 09:09 Ding Ding ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Was it redtooth? Because he just admitted to being mafia. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Psh, me work with Ver? yeah right! My mystery mafia contact wasn't Ver.. keep trying! Well... that PM is questionable, since I don't think we can take anything Chez says seriously. I do agree that redtooth seems to know things that he shouldn't. I wouldn't mind so much if he said that those were things he thought, instead of stating them as facts.
If you think he knows things he shouldn't, vote for him. The only place he'd get that information from is from either being mafia, or by someone who's mafia telling him which wouldn't happen.
This is 100% clearcut. People don't drop mafia team names by mistake.
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On February 21 2010 11:05 Chezinu wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 11:03 L wrote:On February 21 2010 10:46 meeple wrote:On February 21 2010 10:10 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:54 Iaaan wrote:On February 21 2010 09:07 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:06 redtooth wrote:On February 21 2010 09:04 L wrote:On February 21 2010 09:01 redtooth wrote:
ok L is pushing for my death but i'm no good at clue analysis so i can't really find an alternative for the stain clue. but i can offer my somewhat overused WIFOM defense and must say that i am sort of sick of people demanding my head. besides, your clue analysis for me was sort of weak this time.
if you look through the thread i wanted both mystlord and DrH dead. i know these aren't the best defenses but i'm still thinking through the events that have happened. if i'm mafia you guys are screwed anyways because i'm so gosu.
time for some important information. get your pens ready becaaaause:
SugiuraMidori was one of the bodyguards. I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you.
i do agree that we should get a double lynch going tomorrow. and unless there is some ridiculous coincidence involving inactivity and a vet or medic, Ver is logically cleared to be vet. you guys are safe with him as far i can tell. if you have any questions or possible scenarios where ver isn't blue then by all means PM me an we can think it through.
also, the scamp lynch is bullshit. he shuts up regardless of his color. treehugger is broadcasting 10000x more tells than scamp. if i have time i'll get you more analysis on his posts. but tonight we can hope mafia goes and kills scamp/johnnyspazz and doesn't pull another night 1. treehugger you are scum. go to sleep.
on a side note, i'll be on now but my activity won't be nearly as high as before. the weekend and first part of this week is going to be busy. So, uh, how do you know that its the gambinos hitting the town? Please be detailed and make it quick. well they wanted to be in the town circle. they gave GF to SM, who's only known to post lists, and put him in BG position. i would assume the only reason why is to get a list of blues and knock them out. and yes i was intentionally being provocative in my last post. That's the wrong answer. You just admitted to being mafia. Thanks. I think I missed something, how does this prove redtooth is mafia? not that I don't suspect him, but I don't see how this proves he is mafia. On February 21 2010 09:12 ShoCkeyy wrote:
I certainly agree.
As for me posting; I've been moving and such so I can only come online when go to my girlfriends house. I really haven't been able to be active that much, but I'm still reading and doing my own clue analysis. But, damn, DrH? I seriously thought he would of been a blue :\ At least I was hoping he was. And what I see here is someone trying to take suspicion off of themselves. Because unless redtooth is mafia, he doesn't know which team has been hitting more town members apart from the 1 hit discrepancy. The manner in which he articulated his conviction basically flat out states that he knows something that he wouldn't know if he was a towns person. Redtooth hasn't even bothered to try to defend himself; the bulk of his argument is that he believed sugi was part of some conspiracy to get into a town circle. Why would he taunt the mafia as town anyways? What's the purpose of this line? I'm still trying to think through the reasoning for that but I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth admits he hasn't thought the situation through, he he's posting from the hip, so to speak. So if he's posting from the hip, why wouldn't he address both mafia teams together and say something akin to: "why are you mafia guys hitting so many townspeople; go hit each other!"? Well, its pretty obvious, he's sumiyoshi and he's taking a jab at the other team because he knows which hits his team is responsible for, and he has a general idea about which hits the other team is responsible for (sans bombs, etc.). Also; Chez was joking and trying to say that if redtooth was mafia that he'd have contacted him? Doesn't seem like it here: From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Clues Date: 2/21/10 09:09 Ding Ding ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Was it redtooth? Because he just admitted to being mafia. ----------------------------------------- Original Message: Psh, me work with Ver? yeah right! My mystery mafia contact wasn't Ver.. keep trying! Well... that PM is questionable, since I don't think we can take anything Chez says seriously. I do agree that redtooth seems to know things that he shouldn't. I wouldn't mind so much if he said that those were things he thought, instead of stating them as facts. If you think he knows things he shouldn't, vote for him. The only place he'd get that information from is from either being mafia, or by someone who's mafia telling him which wouldn't happen. This is 100% clearcut. People don't drop mafia team names by mistake. ok, I'm surprised no one brought this up yet. If you look, you can see that sug was Gambino. That is a well known fact. I'm slow, please explain what redtooth said wrong. Seriously, this is only a semi-joke.
Because knowing sugi was gambino doesn't imply that gambino are trying to kill townies. It might imply gambino are trying to figure out who blue players are, but even then: why would they be trying to kill them? Its easier to get a list of blues, cross them off your suspect list and go after other people.
Additionally, look at redtooth's phrasing.
I assume it's to get into a town circle. On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town. do that later idiots, go kill the other family before they kill you. Redtooth isn't saying 'because they put sugi in, I infer that they are trying to kill townies'. He says "On that note, the Gambinos are retarded and are trying to kill town." He doesn't say he thinks they're doing that based on his assumptions, he doesn't say its probable.
He says: "Gambinos... are trying to kill town". How do you know that? You don't. You just admitted you're either Sumiyoshi and know who the Gambinos have been hitting because you know who you've been hitting, or you're part of the Gambinos and trying to take shots at your own team for being dumb.
I mean, disguising a godfather implies you're trying to kill the town? Are you serious chez?
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On February 21 2010 11:30 Chezinu wrote:
"This mafia game works slightly different than the normal ones featured here on TL, so I'll explain it a bit more. First off, the game will feature two mafia families, who have different objectives than the normal game. Each mafia family's objective is to eliminate the other mafia team. They do not have to eliminate the town in order to achieve victory. The town, on the other hand, must eliminate 8/10 mafia from both families in order to win."
Hear my plan!
If redtooth and L are mafia of different teams, then we as town shall hold them hostage! They can not win the game without eliminating the other team completely. If town doesn't vote for either L or redtooth and they happen to be mafia from different team, it is a sure way for town to either get attacked by mafia or win!
Sounds like a good plan if your mafia team has all of the blues co-operating with them, right?
If you think the original votelist for redtooth's been ignored, with you voting for him well before he claimed medic, you're wrong.
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Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power. Kinda matters because if redtooth flips red, you're heavily implicated.
The first people to vote redtooth are:
redtooth (9)
Chezinu x
Chezinu x
Ver
Ace x
Chezinu
Caller
d3_crescentia x
citi.zen
decafchicken
meeple
d3_crescentia
Ace
Empyrean
Bill Murray
Chez. You. Caller.
Chez has recently been found out as the bathroom shitter mafia. Scamp actually came through and made a fantastic clue analysis to save himself. Is he selling out a fellow teammember who he thinks will live regardless? maybe, but it doesn't matter. Chez attempts to distance himself from you in PMs as I showed earlier, but never really attacks you in the thread despite not being worried about throwing out attacks.
You and caller early on move to protect each other; Caller gets onto your medic list as proof of this. Caller, meanwhile, doesn't act for the majority of the game despite being a good player.
Redtooth and you, similarly, are buddies the entire game through. In the post that I call him out, literally the line after admitting that he's mafia, he basically tells people to slavishly obey you.
Simply put: After DrH had mediocre support, redtooth submits a half-assed candidacy very early. His mafia buddies boost him early in the running, but fearing that he would die quickly if he was not protected (which would subsequently reveal many of his allies on the voting list) he fake claims early and can't be verified.
Is this true? I don't know. I'll be more certain once redtooth dies, but its very odd that you'd attempt to bandwagon tree.hugger, then switch to quickstriker; if you had such good analysis earlier, why the change? If you're sumiyoshi, then you're essentially trying to trade an inactive member of your team to save redtooth and keep heat off yourself.
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So in the span of 20 minutes, 7+ people have voted for quickstriker, and a number of them have removed their double lynch, despite the fact that we have like 6-7 suspects?
That's a lot of votes for a population that should be ostensibly playing SC2.
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On February 21 2010 12:44 Iaaan wrote:Show nested quote +On February 21 2010 12:20 L wrote:Who cares about all these stupid conspiracy theorr lies, they are not important and distract us from the real task at hand: ensuring both families stay equal in power. Kinda matters because if redtooth flips red, you're heavily implicated. The first people to vote redtooth are: redtooth (9) Chezinu x Chezinu x Ver Ace xChezinu Caller d3_crescentia xciti.zen decafchicken meeple d3_crescentiaAceEmpyreanBill MurrayChez. You. Caller. Chez has recently been found out as the bathroom shitter mafia. Scamp actually came through and made a fantastic clue analysis to save himself. Is he selling out a fellow teammember who he thinks will live regardless? maybe, but it doesn't matter. Chez attempts to distance himself from you in PMs as I showed earlier, but never really attacks you in the thread despite not being worried about throwing out attacks. You and caller early on move to protect each other; Caller gets onto your medic list as proof of this. Caller, meanwhile, doesn't act for the majority of the game despite being a good player. Redtooth and you, similarly, are buddies the entire game through. In the post that I call him out, literally the line after admitting that he's mafia, he basically tells people to slavishly obey you. Simply put: After DrH had mediocre support, redtooth submits a half-assed candidacy very early. His mafia buddies boost him early in the running, but fearing that he would die quickly if he was not protected (which would subsequently reveal many of his allies on the voting list) he fake claims early and can't be verified. Is this true? I don't know. I'll be more certain once redtooth dies, but its very odd that you'd attempt to bandwagon tree.hugger, then switch to quickstriker; if you had such good analysis earlier, why the change? If you're sumiyoshi, then you're essentially trying to trade an inactive member of your team to save redtooth and keep heat off yourself. You completely ignored my accusation of you. As active as you are, I'm sure you didn't miss it. One of my points was that if Redtooth flips Sumiyoshi, that you are Gambino. Seems like it could be a little indirect defense, saying that Redtooth being red implicates Ver, when it doesn't really strongly implicate him. You need to respond to my accusation L, you said yourself that mafia shouldn't just be able to cover up accusations. And Ver, you opinion would be nice to, as well as your support of lynching Redtooth and not quickstriker. That said, the reasons to lynch Redtooth and not quickstriker are: 1) The Gambino family will kill Quickstriker 2) redtooth and L are protected from night hits, lynches are the only way to kill them 3) Redtooth flipping sumiyoshi implicates L, we get information from the lynch as well as a death mafia.
The reason why I'm not dealing with it is if redtooth flips green I will have myself killed. I'm gambling that I'm right, and If I am, you need to look at the connections that redtooth has and that other dead players have already made.
Additionally, the clue analysis you have on me is... meager to say the least. Someone walks through a house while looking at things and suddenly he's L? Linking the most common red herring we've had in the game not to me, but to my namesake's opponent's name? Sure, it seems like a very remote possibility, but there's like 5 players with light references which are more overt than mine. Clue analysis isn't about fitting people to clues, its about interpreting clues and seeing who fits into the interpretation. Voting lists? I pretty much railed on mystlord the entire game from start to end, yet you've pinned me as gambino. The list of voters for me? 1 mafia from each team.
But that's all rather irrelevant.
If I'm right, one family has control of the entire game's supply of medics, dts, as well as the huge voting power of the mayoral office when the game is flatlining in terms of activity. This isn't just about redtooth. Its about one of the families having the game locked up already.
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Chezinu spamming to cover shit up. Priceless. In the last page you've quadruple posted twice. You're also pretty much confirmed mafia off that shit clue, so its pretty obvious someone's trying to cover something up, and the only thing that's really been said is my accusation against redtooth.
Lets go over this once more for everyone that doesn't understand what's going on.
If redtooth is mafia, then ver is likely mafia. If ver is mafia, then he's perfectly fine with keeping the teams even because he knows he can outhit the other team due to medic prots on his guys and DT information+blues to rule out on the other side. If that's the case, then lynching Quickstriker is essentially a copout:
1) We don't learn anything about other mafia because QS pretty much hasn't posted: he's been afk the entire time.
2) redtooth keeps his 3 vote bludgeon.
3) If we don't hit a gambino, mafia kp isn't going to change either way, so why the rush to kill an inactive that wouldn't give us information?
If redtooth flips red, we find out that Ver's 11 minute roleclaim was perfectly safe. Why? There was a missing hit, and a bomb, right? Worst case scenario, redtooth claims that he was the one protecting ver and we all go on our merry way.
If I'm wrong about redtooth, I'll happily kill myself tomorrow. If i'm right and we don't kill him, the game is essentially over.
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Alright, I'm hoping that gets activity up.
I'm going to stress once more that people give a look through all the arguments presented in these last few pages. If you have any questions or want to poke any holes in what I'm suggesting, just ask. I'd prefer here in the open, but if you don't want to overwhelm the thread with posts about small details you can ask in pms too.
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On February 22 2010 02:28 Caller wrote:
okay, all the SC2 streams are off. Time to do something.
And that something is this: L, I'm almost 100% sure that you are town. Even if redtooth flips town I don't think there's any reason to lynch you. That lynch would rather be focused on the Sumiyoshi.
Here's what we know so far and what we are speculating (in no particular order):
a) SugiariaMidori was the Gambino GF and was substituted in as a bodyguard.
b) redtooth may or may not be Sumiyoshi because he was a mayoral candidate that got a lot of votes for some reason.
c) Ver is working with redtooth, therefore guilt by association suggests that Ver is also Sumiyoshi.
d) DoctorHelvetica was also Sumiyoshi.
Your argument implies that three Sumiyoshi members are actively taking control of the town, and that they all ran for mayor, knowingly putting themselves in the spotlight. Does that seem likely or reasonable, especially when only two of them at most are guaranteed protection from night hits that will almost assuredly hit this of candidates? Already one Sumiyoshi is dead that was a mayoral candidate. It has been emphasized over and over again that the mayoral candidates have a high chance of having mafia, and in the case where there are two mafia there should be at least two candidates, one from each side.
However, the fact that SugiaraMidori was found as a GF suggests either
a) redtooth is Sumiyoshi
b) redtooth is town
c) redtooth is Gambino and it was a mindfuck
I suggest just exposing the bodyguard list, as I have said multiple times. If redtooth is town he has nothing to fear from doing so. If he truly is mafia we should see that one side would hit the bodyguard list, because if they don't there's no way to kill him. And depending on whether or not we see a Sumiyoshi as a bodyguard, that may tell us whether or not redtooth is truly town affiliated or scum.
Remember, it's not a bad thing for town members to die in this game from night hits, even if redtooth is a medic. The primary job for town is to preserve the balance of power that exists between the two mafia, and whittle each side down until town wins.
I understand that L is afraid that the Sumiyoshi are in control here. But lynching redtooth right off the bat here I feel is too aggressive of a move off a rather sketchy clue (although behavior is certainly fishy). The bodyguard list would do the exact same thing, except we would also get a better idea of the composition of the bodyguard list, and we may or may not prevent a medic from getting lynched when the balance of power is this fragile.
That said, until redtooth agrees to release this list, which I have advocated since like the beginning of the game, I'm going to vote for him. Plain and simple.
Sorry, releasing some list doesn't fix the real problem, and your post ignores chez.
Chez is 100% cluefucked, he voted redtooth. Additionally, your analysis of ver running for office is wrong; Ver never ran for mayor. People just voted for him. If we've seen where the gambino GF went, we also need to think about who the sumiyoshi GF could be.
More importantly, this is a pretty soft post with nearly zero new content, but it seems designed to let you remove your vote from redtooth the moment he releases the list (which tells us nothing :/). If redtooth does flip red, then we kill ver and he flips red, a post like this isn't going to be enough to insulate you from them.
I'm going to say this once more: redtooth blundered and admitted he was mafia flat out to the thread. There's no reason to vote for quickstriker or anyone else.
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This just in: Caller admits to being mafia in pms.
+ Show Spoiler +From: Caller [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: :3
Date: 2/22/10 02:59
in actuality I'm not Sumiyoshi, I'm Gambino -_-
so I really have absolutely nothing to do with Ver or redtooth, other than the fact that redtooth sent me a whole bunch of junk PMs and Ver apparently has control over all the DTs.
I've basically been trying to get myself killed since Day 2 because of SC2, but I at least wanted to help my side before I did so. But seeing as how like a significant portion of town are class A retards that listen to Ver and autovote, I really have no idea what to do. So at this point I'm like meh.
If anything I think redtooth is Sumiyoshi. Really, I do. But do I have any connection to them? None at all.
And I'm actually 90% sure Ver is townie. Sugiara was the only one that our side swapped in. I would assume that if redtooth is Sumiyoshi that he doesn't actually have any BGs subbed in, because mafia tend not to like taking risks-people who play it safe too much is a definite scumtell. And if you're a mafia mayor, there's no need for you to expose more of your group to risk when the other group is after you and will hunt down BGs to do so.
Feel free to post this in the thread, by the way, I'm pretty much bored of how the activity went to shit, etc. I kind of want to be lynched, seeing as how I've never been lynched once in a mafia game -_-
Unless you want to forward people that you think we should hit?
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
I'm going to assume you guys have 2 people swapped in and are going to kill the last bg if redtooth dies, but did i at least give you guys a scare?
I didn't realize how smart ver's claim was in light of redtooth's claim until too late : (.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
^_^
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Original Message:
I wasn't 100% certain about you prior to that last post of yours, but its pretty obvious now.
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So, essentially caller's trying to get the town to kill him instead of redtooth, but says he wants to help his side (why would he fucking claim mafia straight up?) and says he's not on redtooth's team (so why would he put himself up as a target?). The exact same play as when Ver tried to chump quickstriker in.
Kill redtooth tonight.
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Plan revealed: You're spamming the thread as per the usual. In 2 pages, you have 2 quadruple posts, a triple post and you've sent me like 3 pms in the last 2 minutes.
You aren't even bothering to talk about lynching redtooth or make an argument, you're just cluttering up the thread. Even Ver himself in this thread goes "we once got fucked as mafia when camlito got like 4 of us, but we responded by killing him, spamming the thread and ignoring it.
How is this any different?
Caller claims he's mafia, you ignore that. You're cluefucked, you say nothing of worth and spam the thread.
So, with that said, lets get back to the topic at hand: REDTOOTH
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So Ver, feel free to address my criticisms of you if you're finally here.
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Also, I figured I should post this quickly:
Ver just sent me this.
From: Ver [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Re: Date: 2/22/10 08:07 Well considering I wasn't here... ----------------------------------------- Original Message: When i said redtooth outted both of you and you didn't reply, you made me confident whereas I was kinda just probing before.
But that's interesting, isn't it? Because the PM in question that I sent Ver was sent off at 9:09 on the 21st.
To: Ver [ Profile | Buddy ] Subject: Date: 2/21/10 09:09 redtooth just outted both of you. (((((
So when Ver, on page 97 posts the following:
Ver United States. February 21 2010 11:50. Posts 973 PM Profile Quote
Okay I need to make some things VERY clear. First off, double lynch is our trump and should be saved till the very end. With our hatters likely gone the double lynch is the only way we have of fixing an imbalanced power situation (say 5 vs 3). That means we are not double lynching tomorrow, and possibly not even the day after depending on how the kills go. With maf.ia KP this high still double lynching doesn't really do much, but when mafia have only 1 or even 2 kp each, it becomes a lot more useful and more important it is our failsafe in case one family does manage to take a lead
Double Lynching this early only helps the mafia.
....
The PM in question would have been sitting in his inbox unreplied to for over 3 hours. Ouch.
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On February 22 2010 09:45 Versatile wrote:wat?
I promised I'd accept a lynch if town wanted to kill me if redtooth flipped blue.
Pepperidge farm remembers.
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That failed lynch has sucked away all my will to live.
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I suppose we'll let this continue for a bit before springing the trap.
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On February 23 2010 11:29 l10f wrote:
LOL good job laaan. GG. Town should give up righ tnow.
Nah, The time for self pity is over. Time to make a new plan to move forward with.
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On February 23 2010 11:40 Fishball wrote:
Everything else aside, there is only one thing the Town and Gambino Family should do right now: Lynch a confirmed Sumiyoshi, QuickStriker.
Lynching L due to being mad at him won't help us. Unless he is a Sumiyoshi Mafia, we're just digging deeper into our graves.
Right now, the people who have voted for L, are either confirmed Mafia, or prime suspects. If you guys just want to blindly bandwagon this, then I've got nothing else to say.
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What exactly do you think the plan I was referring to was? Now you just done and revealed it to everyone.
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On February 23 2010 23:26 dozko wrote:
Seeing as how this town doesnt like to think for themselves but likes to rather blindly follow joe public's ideas here is the definitive guide on who to kill. Double lynching is of course necessary.
Today: Lynch QS
Tomorrow: Lynch jspaz, decafchicken
Look at my post from Feb 21 to see why we should be lynching jspaz and decaf already. L im virtually certain is townie but is playing rather badly and whats even worse people trusted him "cause hes a vet". I think a better solution than lynching him is just to ignore whatever he says, although if the above 3 all turn sumiyoshi we can safely take our nerdrage out on him, just not now.
Replace tomorrow with caller and scamp instead.
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On February 24 2010 01:29 Nikon wrote:
You can't be seriously suggesting that L. Seems like the town will be better off if you're lynched today.
You're a cutie, but you sumiyoshi would probably win if town wasted today's lynch, so we can't let that happen, now can we?
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On February 24 2010 02:09 Nikon wrote:
Meh, everyone is extremely uncooperative and disagreeing. Or trying to kill me. You really aren't benefiting the town by posting stuff like that, therefore you are obsolete.
Oh, am I?
Lets see you try to explain this logically without outing yourself.
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On February 24 2010 02:35 Nikon wrote:
Let's see you explain why we should lynch Caller and Scamp tomorrow instead. Don't try to pin me down as a Sumiyoshi, I'm pretty sure that you know that I'm not one. If you do, that's some seriously poor defense.
1) you're sumiyoshi.
2) you dodged the question
3) Caller's lying. His PM to me could not have been honest and followed up with no other attempts to communicate. Additionally he votes to lynch me asap as the day starts.
4) Scamp only responds when called out then goes afk again? LOL I'VE SEEN THIS BEFORE. When scamp produces as town he does so consistently. Between him and Chez, 1 is mafia, and if Scamp flips red we get a list of 4 relatively reliable rolechecks. Granted that we can win with 2 mafia left on either team, even if the sumi GF is hiding in that list its irrelevant.
5) you dodged the question.
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Hmm.
Players 12, 14, 17, 18, 24, 32, 34 and 48.
You all seem to be a team. Please post more.
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On February 24 2010 04:31 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Just noting if I ever see you post that you have sterling clue analysis (or any other way of saying you're good at clue analysis) ever again in any other mafia game I'll make it my job to get you lynched regardless of your role.
just sayin...
Hey bro. What have you done for the game?
If you want to be exonerated, feel free to produce. Sitting back and doing fuck all isn't an option anymore. But thanks for taking a combative stance against a request for you to become active.
It shows I hit a nerve and that you're still unwilling to do much more than cast aspersions on others.
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Hey bro. What have you done for the game? Ouch, that one shut you straight up.
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On February 24 2010 06:26 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2010 03:00 XeliN wrote:
Vote L to be lynched, simply the fact that he maniuplated the town to such an extent and it turned out to be very wrong is enough to lynch L.
It is possible he did it mistakenly however he is a self confessed veteran of this game and i is far more likely he is Mafia,
I think we possibly ought to lynch Quickstriker first, he has been confirmed and the only thing against doing so would be the logic that the other mafia will surely lynch him, however L and Quickstriker to be lynched next plz
There shouldn't be any sort of debate over who to lynch today (and there shouldn't have been yesterday either but whatever). QS is a confirmed mafia (unless he's a miller), and L we are uncertain about. At the very least, we need to even out the mafia numbers and since QS is sumiyoshi lynching him accomplishes that goal. Since Ver was the town leader, it's very important that we keep in mind his goals as we proceed over the next few days. It is evident (because some idiot posted a PM) that Ver had insight on the happenings of the town. Show nested quote +On February 23 2010 07:45 Ver wrote:
And L is getting lynched of course irregardless of role. Since we have a double lynch tomorrow, we need to highly consider killing L since Ver said so, and Ver knew more about the town than any one of us. Also remember, Ver had a massive amount of analysis against tree.hugger, almost to the point where tree.hugger was going to get lynched before events changed during the day. Thus our preliminary kill list should be L and tree.hugger tomorrow. Ver also gave us a possible sumiyoshi list with Caller and I on it (as well as Lucas, but he's dead already). Obviously I'm not going to advocate killing myself, but we must consider killing Caller. Although he has claimed to be a Gambino in the thread, we should consider lynching him. Ver said he's a liar and honestly, this is definitely something Caller could try to pull. Ver also made a bunch of analysis against meeple early on in the game. I believe that most of his analysis still holds true even after he has died (go read it if you don't believe me then look at meeple's posting). He should also be considered for lynch tomorrow. Most people seem to advocate lynching Scamp tomorrow. Although the evidence pointing to him as mafia is reasonable, I don't see any reason to say he must be sumiyoshi if he is mafia over gambino. It's evident that we must be after sumiyoshi right now, and thus I do not advocate killing Scamp unless someone can show me loud and clear that he must be sumiyoshi if he is mafia.
Chez checked you and stated that you came up legit. Given the list of potential players that would take the GF role, its possible that you aren't confirmed. Lynching scamp was a way to see if chez was innocent, and thus rule out him lying about you, vivi, and hobbes' checks.
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Hi Abenson post in the thread instead of just voting sheepishly in an effort to stay under the radar!
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On February 24 2010 08:34 [NyC]HoBbes wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2010 08:06 johnnyspazz wrote:WOW HOBBES IS EFFING MAFIA The laughing figure immediately noticed and galloped over to LucasWoJ’s house, smashed the door, and began to mock him sarcastically. !?!?!?!?!?!?!?! lol what?
Hobbes loves that door smashing Calvin pinning attack.
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On February 24 2010 10:48 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 24 2010 06:37 L wrote:On February 24 2010 06:26 Foolishness wrote:On February 24 2010 03:00 XeliN wrote:
Vote L to be lynched, simply the fact that he maniuplated the town to such an extent and it turned out to be very wrong is enough to lynch L.
It is possible he did it mistakenly however he is a self confessed veteran of this game and i is far more likely he is Mafia,
I think we possibly ought to lynch Quickstriker first, he has been confirmed and the only thing against doing so would be the logic that the other mafia will surely lynch him, however L and Quickstriker to be lynched next plz
There shouldn't be any sort of debate over who to lynch today (and there shouldn't have been yesterday either but whatever). QS is a confirmed mafia (unless he's a miller), and L we are uncertain about. At the very least, we need to even out the mafia numbers and since QS is sumiyoshi lynching him accomplishes that goal. Since Ver was the town leader, it's very important that we keep in mind his goals as we proceed over the next few days. It is evident (because some idiot posted a PM) that Ver had insight on the happenings of the town. On February 23 2010 07:45 Ver wrote:
And L is getting lynched of course irregardless of role. Since we have a double lynch tomorrow, we need to highly consider killing L since Ver said so, and Ver knew more about the town than any one of us. Also remember, Ver had a massive amount of analysis against tree.hugger, almost to the point where tree.hugger was going to get lynched before events changed during the day. Thus our preliminary kill list should be L and tree.hugger tomorrow. Ver also gave us a possible sumiyoshi list with Caller and I on it (as well as Lucas, but he's dead already). Obviously I'm not going to advocate killing myself, but we must consider killing Caller. Although he has claimed to be a Gambino in the thread, we should consider lynching him. Ver said he's a liar and honestly, this is definitely something Caller could try to pull. Ver also made a bunch of analysis against meeple early on in the game. I believe that most of his analysis still holds true even after he has died (go read it if you don't believe me then look at meeple's posting). He should also be considered for lynch tomorrow. Most people seem to advocate lynching Scamp tomorrow. Although the evidence pointing to him as mafia is reasonable, I don't see any reason to say he must be sumiyoshi if he is mafia over gambino. It's evident that we must be after sumiyoshi right now, and thus I do not advocate killing Scamp unless someone can show me loud and clear that he must be sumiyoshi if he is mafia. Chez checked you and stated that you came up legit. Given the list of potential players that would take the GF role, its possible that you aren't confirmed. Lynching scamp was a way to see if chez was innocent, and thus rule out him lying about you, vivi, and hobbes' checks. Even if Chez is innocent it still doesn't mean I'm confirmed since there's still one GF out there. Assuming the town doesn't lynch you who do you vote to kill tomorrow other than scamp? Depends on who dies during the night and what information we get, but caller's pretty open and shut, I'd say.
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On February 24 2010 10:40 Nikon wrote:So, what do you johnnyspazz and L think about Show nested quote +Ver did not care any more as a gruff voice mocked him. He could feel the clanking of heavy armor underneath his head as he bounced up and down. and Show nested quote +LucasWoJ decided to wake up to check what the noise was all about. He tried to sneak out of his house carefully to avoid suspicion, but stumbled on a coffee mug, a toothbrush, and an empty water bottle then?
I think they're clues.
I think its interesting that you'd pick those two in particular, but I guess you're just trying to be antagonistic and with that choice abandon the fantasy that you're part of the town.
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Nikon isn't as fun to antagonize as Ace is.
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tree.hugger's obv mafia too.
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Also, madnessman somehow voted without voting in the vote thread.
Wow there's some bad news blues going on in vote tallying town.
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On February 25 2010 09:21 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 09:19 L wrote:
Also, madnessman somehow voted without voting in the vote thread.
Wow there's some bad news blues going on in vote tallying town. Read the voting thread, I replied there.
So you did.
If we have any medics left, I need to have a chats with you :3.
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On February 25 2010 09:24 Fishball wrote:
You still need to die for your sins.
We can do that later when it doesn't mean you losing the game immediately thereafter.
On February 25 2010 09:27 Vivi57 wrote:
medics should try to prot gambino tonight
this means one of them should prot caller
Wrong. That means Caller shouldn't be protected because he is a lying sack of shit.
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On February 25 2010 09:32 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 09:24 L wrote:On February 25 2010 09:21 Fishball wrote:On February 25 2010 09:19 L wrote:
Also, madnessman somehow voted without voting in the vote thread.
Wow there's some bad news blues going on in vote tallying town. Read the voting thread, I replied there. So you did. If we have any medics left, I need to have a chats with you :3. lol L how you dare. You see theres no way to think you are not mafia¿ Dont trust this guy townies.
Well, that would be exactly why you want to talk to me, now wouldn't it? Vivi's statement about who you're going to want to protect tonight is fairly accurate.
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So once more; Medics please give me a pm :3. This is fairly important.
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A big thanks to the two medics that contacted me. Cynan and Versatile are going to be protected tonight. Just a heads up.
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On February 25 2010 12:05 Nikon wrote:
The risks involved in keeping him alive in that case somewhat outweigh the benefits already.
What risk?
That i'm going to hoodwink and swindle you all once more because I've made a mistake?
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On February 25 2010 12:19 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 12:13 L wrote:On February 25 2010 12:05 Nikon wrote:
The risks involved in keeping him alive in that case somewhat outweigh the benefits already. What risk? That i'm going to hoodwink and swindle you all once more because I've made a mistake? Nope because you can still use the pardoner power.
On whom, exactly?
Tell me who you think the town should be lynching tomorrow?
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In a dark secluded area of town, LucasWoJ awoke to the sound of a thick, deep laugh. Still groggy from sleep, LucasWoJ decided to wake up to check what the noise was all about. He tried to sneak out of his house carefully to avoid suspicion, but stumbled on a coffee mug, a toothbrush, and an empty water bottle, resulting in a jumble of sound as he fell face flat on the floor. The laughing figure immediately noticed and galloped over to LucasWoJ’s house, smashed the door, and began to mock him sarcastically. By this time, LucasWoJ was enraged at the intruder’s actions, and grabbed the nearest object he could find. At first, he scared his attacker with a kitchen knife and almost sliced his jaw in half, but succumbed to ferocity of the attacker’s vile and barbaric actions. The figure snarled and taunted LucasWoJ before biting his neck and ripping out a piece of his trachea. Before long, LucasWoJ was cold and dead on the floor, his attacker nowhere to be seen.
This was actually a rather easy clue, but the coffee mug is a red herring. Amber is a gummybear. His method of attack IS like a wild animal, but the most telling portion is that the jaw was nearly sliced off with a kitchen knife. If any of you have diced something as small as a chicken, you'd know that you need to put quite a lot of force on a knife to cut even a small amount of bone.
I didn't really want to bother saying this until tomorrow, but I guess if we're going to talk about it there's no real issue.
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On February 25 2010 12:47 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 11:32 L wrote:
A big thanks to the two medics that contacted me. Cynan and Versatile are going to be protected tonight. Just a heads up. Haha. Ok, where should I start... If what L says is true, then the two medics are either huge idiots, or he thinks the rest of us (both Town and Mafia) are idiots. Once again, it is "ask-yourself-some-questions" time. - L is already guilty for redtooth's death, whom is a Medic. A lot of people would like to see him dead, both Mafia and Town. Why on earth would someone, specifically Medics, would want to roleclaim to him? - L called out and asked Medics to PM him. Two hours later, he claims that he got the Medics. Not one, but two. Isn't that a little too fast, too furious, too many? - L claims Cynan and Versatile would be protected. This is just an unbelievably wrong in so many ways. Let's assume two Medics did role claim to L, a shady character, within two hours. He then announces the two candidates to be protected. First off, why CynanMachae and Versatile? Both players, especially Cynan haven't been particularly active, or to word it bluntly, productive. Why them? Secondly, who would hit a target if they are protected? (Unless Mafia really wants you dead and blow multiple hits). Why announce them? Just to create a diversion? Thirdly, just all the above. Does this picture makes any sense at all? ----- Now keep in mind, L is the Pardoner. No one can touch him unless all bodyguards are dead. The only thing he would "fear" is being lynched. I see Malongo and some others are already proposing lynch candidates. I personally am wanting to hold off proposing anyone until further evaluation. But after L made this stunt, and considering his previous history, this is just getting flat out dumb. I was the one who suggested to stop the L lynch bandwagon, but now, he would be one of my top picks for our double lynch.
Calm down tiger. You'll find out why tomorrow. No point giving people information before the night is over.
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On February 25 2010 13:16 Malongo wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 12:31 L wrote:In a dark secluded area of town, LucasWoJ awoke to the sound of a thick, deep laugh. Still groggy from sleep, LucasWoJ decided to wake up to check what the noise was all about. He tried to sneak out of his house carefully to avoid suspicion, but stumbled on a coffee mug, a toothbrush, and an empty water bottle, resulting in a jumble of sound as he fell face flat on the floor. The laughing figure immediately noticed and galloped over to LucasWoJ’s house, smashed the door, and began to mock him sarcastically. By this time, LucasWoJ was enraged at the intruder’s actions, and grabbed the nearest object he could find. At first, he scared his attacker with a kitchen knife and almost sliced his jaw in half, but succumbed to ferocity of the attacker’s vile and barbaric actions. The figure snarled and taunted LucasWoJ before biting his neck and ripping out a piece of his trachea. Before long, LucasWoJ was cold and dead on the floor, his attacker nowhere to be seen. This was actually a rather easy clue, but the coffee mug is a red herring. Amber is a gummybear. His method of attack IS like a wild animal, but the most telling portion is that the jaw was nearly sliced off with a kitchen knife. If any of you have diced something as small as a chicken, you'd know that you need to put quite a lot of force on a knife to cut even a small amount of bone. I didn't really want to bother saying this until tomorrow, but I guess if we're going to talk about it there's no real issue. This guy fits SCAMP a lot better.
Scamp's the shitter clue.
If you haven't noticed, there are many combination clues wherein one part points to someone and the other part points to someone else. The kill here points to amber, the leadup, specifically the coffee mug, points to scamp.
I'm still in favor of killing scamp tomorrow, but amber's also mafia.
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On February 25 2010 13:23 Nikon wrote:
Then why'd you make a fuss of me posting the shitter clue, broseph?
Oh, because I figured you wanted to throw heat on hobbes when you knew he was innocent or on the mafia team you aren't on. Either way, really not worth killing even if he's cluefucked because he's been DT checked as green.
The other possibility is that chez is lying and you guys are wizards. I find that unlikely.
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On February 25 2010 13:42 Nikon wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 13:26 L wrote:
Then why'd you make a fuss of me posting the shitter clue, broseph? Oh, because I figured you wanted to throw heat on hobbes when you knew he was innocent or on the mafia team you aren't on. Either way, really not worth killing even if he's cluefucked because he's been DT checked as green. The other possibility is that chez is lying and you guys are wizards. I find that unlikely.
And so have I. I have the info from a reliable source.
How true do you think Caller's list is? Part of it checks out neatly with your presentation of the situation, I'd say.
[/QUOTE]
Why are you so god awful at quoting?
And what does 'so have I' mean?
Caller's a champion player who is doing zero work and lying in PMs. His list is pretty hilarious. That said, no need to talk about it just yet.
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On February 25 2010 13:57 Nikon wrote:I know, right, I want to edit the tag in but I can't  "so have I" means that I've reportedly been DT checked as an innocent. Unless my source is lying.
I'm pretty sure its more likely that you're lying about having a source.
But in the interests of letting you incriminate someone, who was said source?
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On February 25 2010 14:07 Nikon wrote:Show nested quote +From: Chezinu [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: 123
Date: 2/23/10 16:37
I know someone who investigated you, he said you were innocent.
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Original Message:
Am I mafia? Ask him about it if you don't believe me.
Oh, so you know someone that knows someone.
Ok.
Scamp: Decaf has never been linked to a coffee clue before because of how mindfuckingly obvious it would be. Decaf, despite the fact that I want to pin him to stuff because I initially suspected him, doesn't really fit any of the other clues that well.
As for other examples of the combination clues; the first few days in general are really telling. Mystlord's moons pop up EVERYWHERE.
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On February 25 2010 14:24 Nikon wrote:
Didn't you say that Chezinu lying is unlikely?
Depends who he's talking to and what its about. Chez lies plenty when he's trying to see people make mistakes.
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On February 25 2010 14:31 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On February 25 2010 14:20 Nikon wrote:
Yes, he clearly was in the bathroom when the text states that he was woken up by the sound of the perpetrator's laugh. Moreover, your profile fits the toothbrush, coffee mug, empty water bottle nicely. Nice try tho. Wait, what? How does my profile fit the toothbrush and empty water bottle nicely?
It doesn't. You two are both on the same team and trying to play off each other.
Not going to work.
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Empty water bottle = blocked drain. Oh that's pretty cute.
If Chez is lying, there's at least one DT still unaccounted for (unless you really think there was only one DT, but I find that highly unlikely). Surely that someone would've stepped up somewhere along the line by either claiming to Ver or establishing their own circle. It seems hard to believe that there's still a DT lurking in the shadows somewhere, especially at this stage in the game. Along the same lines, I don't think Chez has actually done anything to convince us he should not be trusted (it's not like he's deliberately trying to sabotage the town or anything). Yeah, hence it depends what he's talking about. Chez saying he's a DT is not the same as Chez saying "oh someone else that I'm not going to mention said you're legit, hey lets talk". The former seems important whereas the latter is typical chez trying to fish.
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There is still nothing in any single clue that points to my being mafia.
Oh?
At a fork in the road, one of the men took a left turn which meandered down near the river. The old shack at the end of the road looked deserted, but the man was not disturbed. He snuck closely through the shadows, making sure to blend in with the dark river behind him. The shack seemed abandoned, but the man heard some quiet singing emanating from the shack. As he approached the shack, he noticed an emaciated and pale man inside. The Mafioso didn’t feel especially playful tonight, and decided to simply get the job done. He ripped down the thin wall of the shack closest to the river, and lunged at his victim. Shikyo did not move a muscle as a dull fork flew toward his face and plunged into his left temple. However, the killer was shocked to see two bombs explode in the field nearby, and warily began to sneak away from the crime scene as the debris crunched below his feet. When he was but fifty yards away, he heard a large tree fall overhead, smashing the Shikyo’s shack to pieces and turning Shikyo to pulp.
On the other side of town, things were no less gruesome. Contrary to the warnings of the new town leaders, Fulgrim decided to ignore safety and take a hike in the meadows nearby. But the air was dry, and Fulgrim began to sneeze. After blowing his nose and drinking some water, he decided that maybe it was time to go home. After all, it was very late at night, and he had to get up to go to work the next day. As Fulgrim headed back through the meadows, he began seeing white particles drifting through the air and began to sneeze more. Realizing that the particles were likely the cause of his recent sneezing, he decided to breathe into his sleeve and quickly get back home. But the damage had already been done. Fulgrim slowly began to feel lightheaded, and fainted as he stumbled on a tree root just feet away from the town perimeter. Unfortunately, he would never wake up again.
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On February 26 2010 07:17 XeliN wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2010 03:55 XeliN wrote:
can you provide a list of people//clues you have checked and the results?
Please don't. Giving people information on who to hit is a really fucking bad idea.
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On February 26 2010 07:48 XeliN wrote:
Ok fine I'll edit the request, post any information related to your detecting that you can without helping the mafia. If you can't provide anything then im going to call bullshit on you being a DT
If you find someone who isn't mafia, mafia know not to hit him.
Ergo, any information is too much information to release prior to the day post.
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On February 26 2010 08:24 Nikon wrote:
Why the sudden change in position, johnny? I thought I was going to die for sure at the hands of your superiors.
Nah you're dead.
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On February 26 2010 09:02 Nikon wrote:
Make note of this fellow townies, don't let the murderer get away!
Nah.
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Well, fishball dying was unexpected.
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On February 26 2010 09:22 Fishball wrote:
So the KP's are even up again.
Like I said, I'm not surprised that I'm dead, but haha @ Miller.
I would have lots to say if I weren't dead.
Good luck town. Think twice and play smart.
I sincerely thought that mafia would not go after 99% legit townspeoples.
Was wrong.
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On February 26 2010 09:24 XeliN wrote:
Ah wasnt even able to vote, silly mistake. Btw if johnny is mafia like he states and also gambino like he states would the other family simply not hit him? surely by his still being here that makes him sumiyoshi or am i missing something?
Sumiyoshi probably spent a night hitting no one for one of two reasons:
1) they're dumb and legitimately missed.
2) they wanted to let the numbers of gambino/sumiyoshi even out to prevent the other team from cutting a deal or something.
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On February 26 2010 09:37 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2010 09:24 XeliN wrote:
Ah wasnt even able to vote, silly mistake. Btw if johnny is mafia like he states and also gambino like he states would the other family simply not hit him? surely by his still being here that makes him sumiyoshi or am i missing something? I'm starting to worry about that too. However at this point I don't think we have any reason to not believe him. And anyways, it's not like we don't have other people to lynch. I think it's evident that one of our lynches should be tree.hugger, if for not any other reason, Ver was highly suspicious of him. tree.hugger has yet to make any real contribution to the town, and has made one shaky post about how we should not kill him.
I'd say we also need to kill scamp to see if chezinu is legit, but i'm pretty sure the clues today are pretty blatant when it comes to captain drainage.
Interestingly enough, the encasement in black goo that I originally thought would be something between meeple and malongo ended up killing meeple and reinforcing the malongo link. Malongo typically posts a lot more than he does. That said, we need to get some credible information on if chez is lying through his teeth at us, which prioritizes scamp over him.
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Oh wait, malongo and chez both fit that clue.
Goddamit this is bad news
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On February 26 2010 09:44 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2010 09:40 L wrote:On February 26 2010 09:37 Foolishness wrote:On February 26 2010 09:24 XeliN wrote:
Ah wasnt even able to vote, silly mistake. Btw if johnny is mafia like he states and also gambino like he states would the other family simply not hit him? surely by his still being here that makes him sumiyoshi or am i missing something? I'm starting to worry about that too. However at this point I don't think we have any reason to not believe him. And anyways, it's not like we don't have other people to lynch. I think it's evident that one of our lynches should be tree.hugger, if for not any other reason, Ver was highly suspicious of him. tree.hugger has yet to make any real contribution to the town, and has made one shaky post about how we should not kill him. I'd say we also need to kill scamp to see if chezinu is legit, but i'm pretty sure the clues today are pretty blatant when it comes to captain drainage. Interestingly enough, the encasement in black goo that I originally thought would be something between meeple and malongo ended up killing meeple and reinforcing the malongo link. Malongo typically posts a lot more than he does. That said, we need to get some credible information on if chez is lying through his teeth at us, which prioritizes scamp over him. How does killing scamp guarantee us that Chezinu is legit?
Doesn't anymore. Used to be because chez had zero clue links besides that potential 'he took a shit' one, but the recent wave of black crap with creatures in it thing identifies with chez's picture as well. Which means the original stain clue is more just a black substance clue.
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On February 26 2010 10:03 Scamp wrote:
Well awesome. The town and mafia are now even.
And is it just me, or is it clearly obvious that Caller was killed by J-spazz?
I'm 100 percent positive now that L and Chez are in the same family. The only problem is that it wastes our double-lynch to target them both, but at least we have two more. Probably looks that way to you because I kinda trust what he's saying, but given the amount of people dead and the amount of detectives in said dead group, I kinda think he's not bullshitting (but i'm not sure, hence why I want to confirm it, but with these clues, now I can't).
Either way you're probably sumiyoshi so killing you is still all good in the hood.
The caller clue thing seems to point to Dozko at the start, then j-spazz at the end.
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On February 26 2010 10:39 Scamp wrote:
Well you did tell Fishball "you'll find out tomorrow" and you've already posted seven times today with no mention of why Cynan or Versatile were the ones protected by the medics who claimed to you within two hours.
At this point, you're spamming the thread more than Chezinu is. Not to mention you haven't pressed Chez for any info whatsoever. You also don't seem to mind that he's being his usual waste of space. Your only plan to see about his legitimacy has been to kill me.
On top of all that, you never apologized for being wrong about Redtooth, and now you want to lead the town again? Plain and simple: you're not good for the town.
Sorry about redtooth. My bad bro. If my nearly 2 days of not posting after the event because I was seriously disgusted with how wrong I was wasn't enough, what would be?
I told Fishball he'll find out tomorrow because now we have confirmation that Caller's a fucking liar scumbag like I told you guys earlier. There's no way he'd PM me some stupid shit like that and have it be legit. Granted that, I've been trying to read something out of his posts from yesterday. His list especially is interesting because its a pretty cute attempt to colour some people red.
As for Chez, if you think I'm not pressing him for info, you're dead wrong. We just interact by PM, that's all. That said, I just said like 2 posts above yours that killing you isn't really useful as a method of figuring if chez is legit anymore, but you're still sumiyoshi so you're still a good kill.
You surface briefly when accused then disappear for the majority of the game. The only thing you've produced was a clue analysis with the intent of getting heat off you, and between today and yesterday's sets of clues, I'd be highly surprised if you don't match up with anything.
That said, I like my analysis of amber being a gummibear so much that I might consider switching to him due to the lack of chez info due to today's clues.
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On February 26 2010 11:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
If people lynch me over L then there's really no hope for this town.
There's no hope for town when they ignore the you/scamp sumiyoshi train? Sorry I don't buy it.
You kept a straight vote on bill murray of all people day 2 instead of voting mystlord.
Interestingly enough, It was another Xelin/Amber combination.
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1) Ok.
2) I'm in awe that you wouldn't vote tree.hugger even if you thought on the balance of probabilities that chez was more mafia than scamp.
Would be pretty fucking odd to give us 3 hatters, 2 vets, 2 medics and 1 only dt in a 51 man game.
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On February 26 2010 14:07 Versatile wrote:
oh, and lastly, if you guys are not going to lynch L, i would really like to be lynched so the other mafia can kill him.
since dumb ass #9540239432 outted me as BG however long ago, let's get on with it. i think i may be more useful to the town dead.
So do you do anything other than PMS and admit you don't give a shit if the town loses? Because I'm pretty sure the idea here with a double lynch would be to net 2 mafia kills, not settle grudges.
I mean, why aren't you asking one of the mafia teams to kill you; wouldn't them wasting a hit be better than us not hitting a mafia?
Besides you, the only people bothering to vote for me are inactive lurkers or 100% candidates.
So yeah, way to be a part of an obvious train.
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On February 26 2010 15:07 Versatile wrote:
wtf is this trash? are you crying? i'm sorry if i struck a nerve, didn't mean to hurt your itty bitty feelings. no need to get personal. stop bitching.
anyway. you're playing like shyt. i've said you're mafia for ages. i've been advocating you should die for ages. don't act like this is brand new.
but since i have your attention, why would you have a medic protect me if you think i'm such a bad player? and if a medic told you they were protecting me why would you put it in the thread if you're really helping the town?
as far as your comment about only inactives and candidates voting for you, i'll point you to fishball's last few posts where he was advocating for your death and miraculous ended up dead himself. clearly it's more than a girl "PMSing" (btw, nice chauvinist dig, that must have taken quite a few brain cells on your part, good job!) and inactives. i mean, even you offered yourself up. time to follow through on your word.
Because I would rather that you didn't die, because I think you're an emotional townie who is terrible at this game, but a townie nonetheless.
Fishball and I were in PMs for the vast majority of the end of the last day, and a lot of the posts that were setup were attempts on both of our parts to get mafia to hit certain non-town players, but they completely avoided all of the bait and hit 4 fucking townies instead of other mafia members. Sumiyoshi missed three hits in a row: why?
Do you think that was a mistake given that johnny was roleclaiming straight to their face and that we purposely said that medic protection would not be on him?
Think a bit about it.
Regarding the PMS; get over it. You took some shots at me; Am I supposed to sit there and listen to your self destructive rants and your "i want to die" spiel without thinking "emotional green townie :/" like last game wherein RoL went batshit insane for like 2 days on me?
As for offering myself up, I did. However, then the game took a swing to the point wherein we can't waste lynches or miss hits. I'm not going to fuck over the town twice, in an effort to assuage my own guilt. But yeah, obvious train voting behavior. Way to go.
Now: Onto more important matters like killing red people.
If anyone can write scripts, can we get a full list of posts that caller's made?
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There's a lot I really don't understand right now. One are the people who are voting for both L and myself. I don't get that either, tbh :./
But what also doesn't make any sense is that people think I'm a higher priority over Chezinu. I don't see how a useless non-posting mafia player with multiple solid clue links should be a lower priority than a DT.
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On February 26 2010 15:58 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2010 15:46 L wrote:But what also doesn't make any sense is that people think I'm a higher priority over Chezinu. I don't see how a useless non-posting mafia player with multiple solid clue links should be a lower priority than a DT. You exaggerate the truth with "multiple solid clue links" and I say that if he is a DT, and a very public one, he should prove it. Also I'm not mafia. I can sort of prove it with voting records. I'm curious about this list of people who voted for me on day 3 and then left. Scamp Votes: 1 Chezinu L Caller johnnyspazz tree.hugger Nikoner There should be lines through everyone but Nikoner. This could be a nice collection of mafia....and also Nikoner. It should be fairly obvious through the context of the thread that the probability of me being bussed is very low. Thus, confirmed mafia Caller and Johnnyspazz agree on something here, along with mafia suspects L, Chezinu, and tree.hugger. Both mafia families know that I'm not with them, and they should also know by now that I'm not with the other side either.
You probably remember the context of that vote better than I do;
I linked you to the shitter clue and said "feel free to disprove me", you came up with another possibility for the clue, so we killed redtooth instead like morons. If caller, spazz and hugger wanted to try and bus you, I sure as fuck stopped it when I said you were right and injected enough doubt with your rebuttal.
But how exactly does that make you innocent?
Right now the votes on me:
L: (5)
Scamp
Amber[LighT]
tree.hugger
Versatile
sidesprang
Scamp, amber, tree.hugger and sidesprang all are likely mafia members. 4/5 Pretty damning.
I guess by your logic I'm innocent too.
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On February 26 2010 16:22 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On February 26 2010 16:11 L wrote:
I linked you to the shitter clue and said "feel free to disprove me", you came up with another possibility for the clue, so we killed redtooth instead like morons. If caller, spazz and hugger wanted to try and bus you, I sure as fuck stopped it when I said you were right and injected enough doubt with your rebuttal.
But how exactly does that make you innocent?
Right now the votes on me:
L: (5)
Scamp
Amber[LighT]
tree.hugger
Versatile
sidesprang
Scamp, amber, tree.hugger and sidesprang all are likely mafia members. 4/5 Pretty damning.
I guess by your logic I'm innocent too. Killing Redtooth had nothing to do with me providing another possibility. Also saying you stopped a bus goes against everything I said since my claim was that the probability of me being bussed was very low. And no, the votes on you now is not the same thing. There are no confirmed mafia in that list, just some probables. On my list are confirmed mafia from (most likely) both families as well as likely mafia. The confirmed part makes all the difference. I also asked for some evidence that Chez provided help to the town as a DT. What happened to that? Stop twisting/ignoring my words and start looking for reds like you said you were going to. Also do not ignore Malongo's posts. That goes for everyone.
Had plenty to do with it. You were the best candidate for that lynch until you suggested chez for the same clue. I'm not going to fault you on trying to protect yourself; that's natural, but it was a part of the cause.
The confirmed part really doesn't make a difference because the same people who are highly suspicious are the ones trying to counter bus to save themselves, and the votes against you were all happily retracted. Those people did not keep their votes on you in a tightly contested race to the death (which seems to actually be the case here, so which is more compelling?). Behaviorally you still haven't even bothered to produce anything when not threatened with the gallows, despite being called out twice.
Either way, if you die and flip anything other than red, chez and foolishness look really bad.
And I am looking for reds. Its 3 am, but I plan on posting pretty much full lists of both families as far as I can tell tomorrow with clues on everyone. That's what I was telling people to wait for, but it seems some antsy mafia can't wait to try and bus me to death so they can coast to victory.
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On February 26 2010 23:42 Amber[LighT] wrote:He has jumped on my ass because of this PM session: Show nested quote +Your arguments don't really make sense. If you suspect redtooth is mafia, you should be deadly afraid of his 3 votes, and you'd want information on chez/ver/caller. Caller admitted to being mafia. Chez got cluefucked. Ver's probably a GF.
If we don't hit them now, we're going to lose more votes tomorrow, and redtooth is going to have 6 total votes during a double lynch.
I don't personally give a shit regarding the BG list besides to hope that if it IS given out that we protect someone on it because i'm pretty sure I'm in danger of being killed tonight.
But what's more: None of the rest of this PM makes sense: If redtooth isn't mafia, why would we want the mafia hitting bodyguards and missing mafia members? That's incredibly anti-town. Why would we hit someone expendable at all? Why hit Chez when Chez can soak up mafia hits during the night because he's clearly a target?
I just don't get this PM at all.
-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
Okay here we go, I'll keep it brief:
-I'm against giving the BG list out. If there are townie BG's they still protect you assuming you're a townie.
-By killing redtooth, you've essentially risked the lives of Caller/Ver/Chez assuming redtooth flips red. Seems like an obvious hit for the other mafia family if they're going to act based upon your analytical methods.
-Maybe we can not kill redtooth, but instead kill someone expendable, like Iaan (who I've had a problem with since day 1). He still has a sorta-connection with the redtooth clique from what I'm reading in the thread and it would be better if we kept the mafia family hunting for the bodyguards to take out Redtooth (town still has control over the game if we do this).
-If you don't want to gun for Iaan then go for Chez. He's obviously trying hard to drown your posts and he's aligned with Ver/Redtooth it's too obvious. It would help clear some air too and you wouldn't have to risk yourself in the long run.
So conclusion:
I won't vote for Redtooth, but I'll vote for Chezinu or Iaan, otherwise I will abstain. We can revisit Redtooth later if need be. The votes are still townie-favored. There's plenty of us still alive.
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Original Message:
Hi guys.
A lot of you are busy playing SC2 and couldn't give a rat's ass about mafia at the moment but that's a mistake! Exciting things are happening in that funky forum.
In particular, the game's about to end. Please read pages 96-99 in the thread and see if what I'm saying makes sense. So far I suspect that Chez, Caller, Ver and Redtooth are all mafia and working together.
Chez has a fantastic clue incriminating him and has essentially admitted to being mafia in pms. He's also spamming the thread right now and trying to get people to ignore what I'm saying.
Redtooth has another uncontested clue against him and has been unfaltering in his support of ver. More importantly, he essentially outted himself in public by admitting that he knew which team was responsible for which hits. He was voted in largely on the strength of Caller/Ver/Chez giving him an early boost, which is odd because his campaign didn't have any content in it. Redtooth claimed medic early and then refused to go along with malongo's confirmation plan too.
Caller is quick to admit that he's bad at mafia and busy playing SC2, but he responds instantly to criticism and was protected by Ver's early medic list. That said, he doesn't really produce anything for the town.
Ver, well read the thread.
This isn't assured: That's why I want to kill redtooth tonight to see if he flips red. If he flips green, I'll volunteer myself to get lynched the following day.
If I'm right, mafia have access to all our DTs, all our medics, and what seems to be an almost stalemate is about to explode drastically in one team's favor as they have medics prot their members and use DTs to find members of the other team. On top of that, they have the mayoral votes in a game where inactivity is huge; voting against their bloc is very hard unless town comes out en masse.
At the very least read pages 96-99 and then spend a bit of time thinking about it.
Thanks for your time
-L
He's defending Chezinu. The second I didn't want to lynch Ver/Redtooh he was NOT having my contribution. Everyone should vote for L AND JohnnySpazz tonight. Can we finally follow Malongo's plan for once this game? This is the only way we can obtain some god damned clarity in this game. If L flips red I'd have a hard time believing Chez or Iaan are pro-townie.
1) You voted to kill redtooth.
2) Look at what you're actually saying in that pm. You're asking townies to get hit over mafia members. That's pretty fucked.
3) I'm not trying to kill you because of that set of PMs. I found a really good clue link to you. That said there are even better links to scamp and tree.hugger, but I'm still persuadable on that.
The fact that tree.hugger has 2 votes when Ver's been trying to kill him since day 2 is pretty hilarious. You guys are getting bussssssssssssssed.
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On February 27 2010 07:22 XeliN wrote:
Who, who are the mafia you helped catch, what was your role in helping catch them? The other is abit more difficult as it could potentially help the mafia if you reveal but just saying "i have confirmed so many townies that they can't...." ammounts to nothing. You can give no evidence of this just simply say it, there seems to be no-one here who is putting forward a strong argument against lynching you and if people can i would like them to as well.
Everything in that post, so far ammounts to, "ive done this and that honest trust me, lols!"
You realize pretty much every post today amounts to either "I'm honest, trust me" or "He's untrustworthy, kill him". There's been almost zero work done besides that.
Pretty standard mafia mudslinging going on here. I was out all day so I'm going to post my team lists early tomorrow after they're complete. When I die and you guys realize how stupid you were to kill me, maybe you can salvage the game using the information I give you.
Also; if there's another legit detective out there, you should probably claim to town asap because a certain someone's credibility rests solidly on the fact that you haven't claimed.
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On February 27 2010 07:45 XeliN wrote:
Also it's a shame your going to get voted, seems pretty clear to me now that your not mafia, although str8 after red's death i wanted you lynched as well...
Well, if i die and it helps the town out, so be it. The only real question for me is how much can I figure out before I die and how can I post it so that we pull ahead. I felt really shit after killing redtooth because I honestly thought he was mafia. I was right about caller being on sumiyoshi, and I might still be right about chez, but for now I think we have better targets than him.
Chez claims he's checked like 3-4 people who've flipped green, and that's cool. Maybe he's lying. Maybe he isn't. Regardless, the easiest way to see if he's lying is to kill scamp, but for some reason scamp/him are tied.
Additionally, targets like amber and tree.hugger, who have been playing incredibly obvious as mafia, or players like OhN, who have a ton of clues pointing to them but don't fucking post aren't being looked at.
This is pretty much what the mafia tried to do to us in mini-mafia 2, but it blew up in their face because we went after them for it. This game has essentially been a huge amount of town pointing fingers at each other and mafia not even bothering to post because no one is looking their way.
Its as if people haven't even bothered to look at the game's win condition or think about how we're going to get from here to 8 dead on both teams without having one team fully dead.
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On February 27 2010 08:35 Scamp wrote:
Foolishness your defense of Chez is "read the thread carefully." Instead, how about you provide anything to defend him, because I'm very confident he's not a DT.
I am, however, less confident about L being mafia. But I really don't see the case against tree.hugger. I don't see any solid clue links to him. Yes occasionally part of a tree appears but that's about it, I'd hardly consider that solid. And yes a bunch of innocent people voted for him on day 3....but how does that prove anything?
Ver's got a truckton of analysis done on tree.hugger, and his main point is one that becomes stronger every day.
Tree.hugger just got raped in the last game because of inactivity. This game he posts that the town shouldn't be inactive, then GOES AFK FOR FOUR DAYS.
The clues against him aren't perfect, but they never really are. Originally I didn't want to hit tree.hugger because OhNhas a 'tree' as a centerpoint of his profile. That changed recently when I figured out that the following clue (which seems like a gimme to finger shockey off of, given our previous discussions. I thought it would be odd for incog to throw out a blatant clue based directly on what we had fingered shockey for, so I looked through profiles again to see if anything caught my eye.
Here's the profile bit:
"No matter how dark the night, morning always comes, and our journey begins anew."
Here's the clue:
At home, l10f was busy compiling a list of suspects, frantic after his long night’s work. Fearing that his death was imminent, he proceeded to hide his findings in his house, hoping that some diligent townsperson would come along to find his work. Unfortunately, l10f did not know the nature of his fate. While hiding the last pieces of his information under the tile between the kitchen and the dining room, l10f thought he saw a shimmer of hope. Beyond the clouds in a distance l10f saw the sun piercing through the clouds. His hope soon turned into puzzlement when he remembered that it was 2am in the morning. Thinking that he still had some time before his death, l10f had no time to think as a lightning bolt struck from behind the cloud and sent an electric volt surging through his body. The whole house erupted into flames as a result of the lightning strike, and l10f knew that his work was in vain. As the light behind the clouds began to fade, l10f’s mind began to race as he thought of his new beginning in heaven… Links incredibly strongly to:
"No matter how dark the night, morning always comes, and our journey begins anew."
The reason I haven't really posted this until today was that I was hoping tree.hugger would die so that I'd get clarification on whether or not ohN's clues are tree related or not. If that's so, then this could be shockey instead. The 2 am morning, however, as well as the our DT going to heaven and starting a journey anew seem pretty strong though.
Anyways, I won't really be done getting candidates for every clue section until tomorrow because there are a number I'm still debating about. And Malongo, I know you put some work up, but you're a grand total of one person, and that doesn't really add up to the town as a whole trying to fucking do work. At least Fishball was regularly PMing me and trying to put together ideas and a plan to go forward.
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Wow i'm good at proof reading. Thought I left that bit out, but I put it in twice instead.
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[quote]Wait what?
How on earth does that point to me? You quoted ohN's profile twice, and apparently that links to me? What? [quote] I already quoted the tree clues earlier. I didn't want to attribute them to you because they also could fit ohN. When I found a clue to him that was non-tree related, it meant that trees could be connected to you again. The tree that smashed Shikyo to death and the root that tripped phrubaz's target.
[quote]Now, as one of this game's most prolific posters, with a strong interest in these games, I doubt anyone was fooled by this sudden depression, and hopelessness.[/quote] That shit was legit. Its happened before. Feel free to look at past games; it wouldn't be the first time I'm 100% convinced of something, fuck up and go "FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU" for 2 days. Pretty much every time I've killed Ace, I've been pretty certain that he was mafia
Feel free to read other games; Its not like this is the first time I screw up, nor would it be the first time I'm exasperated with myself for missing something.
[quote]Surely he proved himself by the QS lynch[/quote] Uh. that was Ver's DT who checked him, not chez. Ie, If0l or whatever (sorry bro, your name is hard to remember). No one really is cleared by the QS lynch because the entire town bussed him, and it was pretty obvious the town was going to bus him.
I'm about to go to sleep, but I've been having a lot of trouble with the ritual murder clue as well as the black liquid killer. If you guys can brainstorm or something, that would help me a lot. I want to be sure I get things accurate this time.
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Wait what?
How on earth does that point to me? You quoted ohN's profile twice, and apparently that links to me? What? I already quoted the tree clues earlier. I didn't want to attribute them to you because they also could fit ohN. When I found a clue to him that was non-tree related, it meant that trees could be connected to you again. The tree that smashed Shikyo to death and the root that tripped phrubaz's target.
Now, as one of this game's most prolific posters, with a strong interest in these games, I doubt anyone was fooled by this sudden depression, and hopelessness. That shit was legit. Its happened before. Feel free to look at past games; it wouldn't be the first time I'm 100% convinced of something, fuck up and go "FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU" for 2 days. Pretty much every time I've killed Ace, I've been pretty certain that he was mafia
Feel free to read other games; Its not like this is the first time I screw up, nor would it be the first time I'm exasperated with myself for missing something.
Surely he proved himself by the QS lynch Uh. that was Ver's DT who checked him, not chez. Ie, If0l or whatever (sorry bro, your name is hard to remember). No one really is cleared by the QS lynch because the entire town bussed him, and it was pretty obvious the town was going to bus him.
I'm about to go to sleep, but I've been having a lot of trouble with the ritual murder clue as well as the black liquid killer. If you guys can brainstorm or something, that would help me a lot. I want to be sure I get things accurate this time.
Edit: Gj I forgot a /.
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On February 28 2010 07:07 Chezinu wrote:
L hurry up and write a bug speech to give town the info you know before you die. May the Circles guide you! Almost done.
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This shit is going to be like 2,500 words :/
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5. johnnyspazz
8. Vivi57
11. XeliN
12. Amber[Light]
16. dozko
18. tree.hugger
19. ShoCkeyy
23. Chezinu
24. Scamp
26. L
28. Iaaan
29. ~OpZ~
30. sidesprang
33. ohN
34. Abenson
38. CynanMachae
40. tredmasta
44. [NyC]HoBbes
45. Versatile
47. Malongo
50. Foolishness
51. madnessman
These are our remaining players. 11 of them are mafia. 5 are Gambino. 6 are Sumiyoshi. 11 are LEGITZ.
So, currently my thoughts on which teams are which:
Gambino:
Johnnyspazz
CynanMachae
ShoCkeyy
Dozko
XeliN
Sumiyoshi:
Scamp
Tree.hugger
ohN
Amber[Light]
Abenson
Malongo
Or chez is full of shit and:
Iaaan
ohN
Abenson
Hobbes
Chezinu
Scamp
Reasoning:
Gambino:
Johnny: + Show Spoiler +
CynanMachae: + Show Spoiler +Cynan’s name is essentially a warrior king and the spirits of war. Search Cynan and Machae seperately. The death by pike in day 2 and the ritual killing during day 5 point towards him really, really well.
ShoCkeyy: + Show Spoiler +Repeated instances of the word shock during day don’t really point to him. A better link is: "Nothing in the world is more common than unsuccessful people with talent, leave the house before you find something worth staying in for." And the following clue: When the three Mafiosi made it to the city gate, they each decided to go in their separate directions, moving swiftly towards the houses of their victims. The first Mafioso went straight for the town center. When he finally arrived at his victim’s house, he noticed that the door had been left wide open. Cautiously, he peeked in the window, noticing that a pot of soup was still cooking on the stove. A pencil and a few charts were also spread on the table, but the Mafioso could not notice that anything important or telling about the papers. Figuring that his victim had been alerted to his presence and had hidden all his important documents before hastily vanishing, the Mafioso tiptoed upstairs, careful not to make any noises that could alert his victim. Upon reaching the upstairs bedroom, the Mafioso noticed fresh tracks beneath the window, and jumped down, careful not to disturb the tracks. He raced through the forest, and soon found his robed target sitting by the lake. Ace felt no surprise as he turned around to greet the Mafioso. He was about to warn the Mafioso that he couldn’t hide in the darkness, when suddenly the Mafioso sprayed gasoline all over Ace and quickly lit a match. As he left the scene, Ace’s attacker muttered to himself, thinking how much fun it would be to terrorize the town not only in the darkness, but also in the light. Additionally, the quote is ascribed to banksy, who is a prominent graffitti artist. The graffitti red herring during the 2 men bickering clue that some people attributed to nikoner works against shockeyy instead.
Dozko: + Show Spoiler +Dozko has a few links to him that are rather artfully done. I’m not 110% sure of the link because of just how artfully done most of them are. The main one is here: Seeing that his partner had succeeded, the last Mafioso decided that luck was on his side. He lurched through the shadows, eager to finish his last kill. After all, his target was the lowly decafchicken. Upon reaching the house, Caller knocked on the door. For some reason, decafchicken’s friend opened the door, and was slightly suspicious of Caller, and accused him of his unwanted behaviors: rigging the market, sabotaging the financial system, and supporting the aristocracy of money. Caller however, was not disturbed by the accusations, smashed the door in, knocking decafchicken’s friend to the floor. He soon found decafchicken in the kitchen. Unfortunately, decafchicken had time to prepare due to his friend’s attempt to stall, and thrust a kitchen knife at Caller’s chest. But Caller was well prepared, and began to taunt decafchicken, who quickly became angry. In a matter of moments, Caller’s had decafchicken decapitated by his own knife. Content, Caller thought he should finish the job completely, and walked toward the front door, ready to finish decafchicken’s friend off. Unfortunately, the man was gone. Frantic, Caller ran out into the street, looking for any signs of the missing man. But he did not see his doom approaching or hear the voices of warning coming from the bridge above. In a matter of seconds, Caller was turned into a pincushion as he was hit from the side. The only traces of any action came from the dust cloud that was disappearing in the distance. Important here is that this paragraph has 2 deaths, so there’s plenty of room for extra clues in there. Johnny seems to link to the dust cloud, since he’s a speedy hedgehog, but who’s the rest of the clue talking about? In the first part, Caller’s friend criticizes Caller on the subject of economics. Dokzo’s profile quote: A comprehensive guide to economics: In the second portion, Caller returns to finish the job, but lo and behold, his procrastination made the friend get away, and ultimately fucked caller over. Dozko’s pic? Procrastination... is like masturbation its good in the beginning, but in the end, you realize you’ve just fucked yourself. Dozko's attack might also be a wind that papercuts people, in which case some of the kills we've attributed to johnny are wrong
XeliN: + Show Spoiler +Was recently mentioned in the thread and forced me to re-look at the clues. This, alongside dozko are probably the two people i’m least certain of clue-wise.
XeliN’s link is essentially to those repeated instances of bars throughout the thread. Ver dies after visiting a bubble tea place, Incog dies after getting drunk. There are many repeated instances of ‘drink’ in its various forms being placed aroudn crime scenes, disproportionately so.
Sumiyoshi:
Scamp: + Show Spoiler +At first I figured that the shitter clue was the only thing that really linked to scamp, but then I realized that wasn’t quite true. There are many other instances of links which pop up. First: Scamp has a theme of ‘blocking’ ascribed to him. There are scattered instances of this all over. The other theme, and perhaps the more important. The sphinx. Wikipedia: A sphinx (Ancient Greek: Σφίγξ / Sphinx, sometimes Φίξ /Phix) is a mythological figure which is depicted as a recumbent lion with a human head. So essentially its a Cat/human hybrid that is in that sitting position. Scamp’s picture? Bam, cat in the right position. The third Mafioso headed toward the construction site, where workers had been trying to rush build a new town jail. From the building above, the third Mafioso noticed his target working in the guard tower across the jail courtyard. Smiling to himself, he snuck around to near the tower and took control of a crane that he had hidden nearby. Only a few of the workers noticed the large shadow blocking out the bright artificial light necessary to light the construction site. A few yelled at the workers to get out of the way, and fortunately everyone did but one. BloodyC0bbler did not notice as a miniature version of a stone sphinx came crashing down on the site, demolishing the guard tower and spraying blue blood everywhere. Note how we essentially have a cat burglar type character who’s able to infiltrate a prison, who blocks the light, then drops a sphinx onto people. Originally I thought this was attributable to mystlord, but it wouldn’t make sense to put clues to the same person in days 1 and 2 concurrently given the rest of the history we’ve seen so far.
Tree.hugger: + Show Spoiler +Already repeated ad nauseum. Essentially he’s part of the shikyo death and herringed earlier at the phrubazk kill.
ohN: + Show Spoiler +Recently stated in thread as well; The morning at night which killed our DT combined with herrings pointing to people thinking about their afterlife.
Amber: + Show Spoiler +Repeated quite a bit recently too: Gummibear killer. Amber’s profile really doesn’t have anything that’s remotely good to use as a clue besides that one line. Here’s the clue itself: In a dark secluded area of town, LucasWoJ awoke to the sound of a thick, deep laugh. Still groggy from sleep, LucasWoJ decided to wake up to check what the noise was all about. He tried to sneak out of his house carefully to avoid suspicion, but stumbled on a coffee mug, a toothbrush, and an empty water bottle, resulting in a jumble of sound as he fell face flat on the floor. The laughing figure immediately noticed and galloped over to LucasWoJ’s house, smashed the door, and began to mock him sarcastically. By this time, LucasWoJ was enraged at the intruder’s actions, and grabbed the nearest object he could find. At first, he scared his attacker with a kitchen knife and almost sliced his jaw in half, but succumbed to ferocity of the attacker’s vile and barbaric actions. The figure snarled and taunted LucasWoJ before biting his neck and ripping out a piece of his trachea. Before long,LucasWoJ was cold and dead on the floor, his attacker nowhere to be seen. The real tell here is that the jaw was so easily cut; You guys should know that normal knives do not cut bone. You need a fucking bone saw to go through them, or you need to pin them up against something and use a cleaver. This was neither of those cases, hence Amber as the gummibear. This is one of the clues i’m most solidly certain of.
Abenson:+ Show Spoiler + Day 1 horsepair. Re-reading it, however, make it seem like both chess horses are travelling slowly to and fro. They’re also able to go straight through a wall and land directly on someone. Here’s the clue: Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds. Dreamflower became more nervous, and pointed her gun out the window, waiting for the horsemen to approach. However, she was startled as she noticed a figure walking towards the horsemen. She breathed a sigh of relief when she recognized Qatol. But what was Qatol doing out so late at night? Dreamflower was puzzled, but was snapped back into reality as she noticed the horsemen were only a football field away from her location. Thinking quickly, she decided not to fire a shot, but ran outside to get Qatol to safety. She tried to run in the shadows, but was caught in the middle of the road as the moon pierced through the cloud layer and shone directly on her. The horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react. She leaped to the left, and narrowly avoided death. But the second horseman just cackled loudly. Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, he charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.
Malongo:+ Show Spoiler + Quite frankly, it has to do with this black liquid, and here’s where the analysis gets interesting; If Malongo is innocent, then Chez is guilty. If Chez is guilty than Malongo’s innocent. I’m not at all certain of this clue link, so I was forced to make an entirely seperate team profile.
Iaaan: + Show Spoiler +Recently mentioned in the text, but it goes further than that; Iaaan was checked early and would be the sumiyoshi GF. He posted early, garnered attention, then he just immediately quieted up. If he’s a sumiyoshi, he is a pale guy who attacks with tuning forks. Additionally, this would explain quite a bit about how so many of our blues got hit and why Iaaan was so willing to just vomit out that PM from Ver. Its quite possible that its been tampered with and that a number of people who were actually known to be legit aren’t on there.
It would also make sense given the amount of blue targets that have been hit. The DT died the day that Iaaan supposedly got the list, and meeple was taken out the next day, both, it would seem, by sumiyoshi.
Hobbes: + Show Spoiler +Why hobbes? Because if Hobbes isn’t legit per the Chez check, then Hobbes actually has the same qualities that amber’s gummibear does, because he’s a stuffed animal. Both are savage beasts. Both have easily cut jaws. As you can see, I have many alternate mafia members depending on if Chez is bullshitting us or not, hence why I wanted scamp dead to check so bad.
Chezinu: + Show Spoiler +Chez and I have been Pming most of the game, but as per the usual, he talks dumb shit all the time. Has he said anything suspicious? Yes. Plenty. Is everything suspicious when chez says it? Yes. So frankly I can’t tell. I think he’s innocent and that he’s telling the truth because of the fact that no one else has really stepped up, but Day 5’s black wave with creatures inside it matches chez’s picture directly, though, and again, its between him and malongo.
Scamp flipping red doesn’t really make chez ‘legit’ but now malongo and he are in that position.
For tomorrow if i’m not here: Hey brosefs what’s up. If you’re reading this and I flip green, shit we wasted a lynch . But not to worry! We can still win! First step you guys need to get on is posting PRODUCTIVE COMMENTS ASAP. Fishball did this. Malongo’s doing this. I’m doing this. Dokzo’s doing this. Get out and analyse. Make a case for someone and make sure its good. Next: reduce variables. Don’t know if chez’s list is accurate? Make for certain by killing him. Doing that gives the mafia a 5 member do not hit zone, which puts the town above the 4 people you need to keep alive to coast to a win. Next; fucking make sure you keep mafia numbers as equal as possible. When you analyse someone’s behavior, it isn’t enough to say ‘oh he’s mafia’ because the town needs to be going “oh he’s sumiyoshi, and they’re up one.” Or “oh he’s gambino and they’re up one”. If I’m dead, I sure hope the other target is a sumiyoshi, because if you knock out a gambino, for instance, they might be dead in 2 days because it doesn’t seem like we have extra medics.
For reference: I'm most certain of Cynan ohN and Amber, but I dont' think we can get enough votes on them quickly enough.
Anyways, that’s all :3 Best of luck.
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On February 28 2010 07:44 ShoCkeyy wrote:
L nice clue research, but to bad it's easy to find that out. Not much of clue hunting to begin with, anybody can find that out, it's to simple of a clue and to obvious of a clue to even be me. Like every other mafia game, clues aren't so obvious.
Yeah, nearly none of these clues are obvious, sorry. Obvious would be linking you to shock like others tried to do. Instead I have you linked on two seperate accounts to graffitti and the house murder.
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On February 28 2010 07:50 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On February 28 2010 07:48 L wrote:On February 28 2010 07:44 ShoCkeyy wrote:
L nice clue research, but to bad it's easy to find that out. Not much of clue hunting to begin with, anybody can find that out, it's to simple of a clue and to obvious of a clue to even be me. Like every other mafia game, clues aren't so obvious. Yeah, nearly none of these clues are obvious, sorry. Obvious would be linking you to shock like others tried to do. Instead I have you linked on two seperate accounts to graffitti and the house murder. Which are still obvious, google banksy and people know immediately it's graffiti. Not only that, a lot of people know who banksy is. And the house murder, it's obvious that it would "supposebly" be me. I'm like the only person that has such an obvious house quote in their profile.
Oh, so having to google to find out the meaning of names, like I did with you and Cynan, makes the clues obvious?
I fucking had NO IDEA what that ritual killer murder was and couldn't cleanly fit abenson's clues together until I realized that Cynan was implicated by an entirely different set of clues.
Sorry if that was all 'obvious' to you. Guess you shoulda posted it and helped me out instead of letting me stare at fucking profiles and google nearly every term in each one for 8 hours.
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I'm not, but I didn't make that list to try and protect people. My team's terrible and I've been trying to get town to win since day 4.
Anyways, best of luck town :3.
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On February 28 2010 09:06 Chezinu wrote:
There goes the hostage..
This guy should probably be killed tomorrow for the aforementioned reasons in my big post.
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A big thanks to my team for getting repeatedly modkilled. Made for good times.
On the plus side: More SC2.
Best of luck, town!
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On March 01 2010 11:39 Iaaan wrote:
lol @ the Gambino's killing me
I lol'd too, tbh.
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On March 04 2010 10:49 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On March 04 2010 10:07 CynanMachae wrote:Well, OpZ was thinking about killing Amber and Iaaan while spaaz was more fro OhN and abenson. Decided to switch at the last minute tho, and it didnt end up well Iaaan was a good gf suspect but I'm not sure about amber tho L seemed certain about amber, and he had wanted to hit amber the night before -_- And come on....Go reread Iaaan's stuff -_-
L wanted amber dead instead of L.
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On March 05 2010 08:20 Ace wrote:Sadly I never get the chance to live long enough to try  Imo following your logic is kinda hard to follow, but you somehow arrive at the right conclusion a decent amount of times. So in short, I actually read the stuff you post even if it takes me 20 minutes. ^_^
HEY BRO. I WONT KILL YOU NEXT GAME. OK? OK.
^_^.
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EPT
