TL Mafia XVIII - Page 40

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

February 15 2010 02:54 GMT

#781

On February 15 2010 11:49 redtooth wrote:

L wasn't accusing random people for information. i was. ace always attacks L. i chose to attack L because i found fault with his high emphasis on clue analysis with day 1 clues (something atypical of L or any vet mafia player).

listen here's what happened so that bystanders can understand
- L accuses Ace based on clues
- Ace makes a halfhearted defense then basically sits back
- i defend Ace rigorously because i think day 1 clues are retarded and because i think vets are important in this game setup, never seriously claimed that ace is innocent
- something happens that makes me lose a bit of trust in ace
- i see why day 1 clues aren't so retarded so i retract my full-hearted defense of Ace
- you somehow fabricate all these inconsistencies in my argument and think that i am flip flopping for no reason

GET OVER IT I'M NOT MAFIA. i understand L accusing me but he knows i'm townie. lol what the hell are you doing trying to paint me as mafia with really really really weak arguments and nitpicking at details? maybe you are scum?

and about the vehemence in posts, this is mafia. this is serious business.

I'm not hung up on the idea of you being mafia, but it does seem likely to me that you are associated with Ace who I do believe to be mafia. You claim now that you lost trust in him yet you won't give a reason why. If you can justify this shift in trust, I'll most likely gain a lot of trust in you. So far, I haven't seen any reason to do that.

I am perfectly okay with you changing your mind as long as you make that clear and give reasons as to why. You may not be flip-flopping but when I look at the arguments you've made since the beginning, that's really just how it comes off to me.

Ace didn't really make a halfhearted defense imo. Again, keep in mind this is my second game of mafia and I have never played with you, ace, or L before. The amount of arguments he made were substantial and the attacks were pretty intense that he made on L.

Show me what is fabricated. I fucking LOGGED everyones arguments in a wordpad, so if you can correct me on a specific misunderstanding of what your argument was then I would be glad to hear that. So far you haven't really done that.

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

February 15 2010 02:55 GMT

#782

I don't see how "L and Ace always argue" is a defensive point.

So because they argue all the time we shouldn't pay any attention? Is there something I'm missing here?

Bill Murray

United States9292 Posts

February 15 2010 02:56 GMT

#783

On February 15 2010 11:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I don't see how "L and Ace always argue" is a defensive point.

So because they argue all the time we shouldn't pay any attention? Is there something I'm missing here?

it's like when someone sees two dogs fighting, and they spazz out, but the dogs are really playing with each other. that's what you did. i did it too, at first, but i realized they were playing eventually (i had to read that section again)

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

February 15 2010 02:58 GMT

#784

On February 15 2010 11:56 Bill Murray wrote:

Show nested quote +

What makes you think that specifically? Again, justify your arguments.

It doesn't change their core arguments:

Ace:
Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later.

I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia)

Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations.

Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia.

Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what.

Clues are subjective, not objective.

Never rely on clues.

I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone.

Clues are useful only when processed through DT's.

I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly.

I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death.

Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother.

L is trying to turn the town against me.

Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town.

L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red.

L:
Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around.

The clues very clearly point toward Ace and Empyrean as being mafia.

Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him.

We can't afford to waste any lynches.

Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town.

Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues.

Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent"

The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't.

Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here.

There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families.

The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch.

It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game.

Don't make useless posts.

People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it.

Town can't waste time due to KP disparity.

Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues.

Mafia might have several good/veteran players.

People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them.

If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too.

Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1.

I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion.

I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead.

While their might be some playful banter there, the arguments aren't invalidated by that. And honestly, I don't see it.

Bill Murray

United States9292 Posts

February 15 2010 03:03 GMT

#785

i'm going to word this as nicely as possible... i am not trying to demean you or anything, but it has to happen. it just seems like you aren't really a people person, man. you can't pick up on how playful they're being. that's not something someone can explain to you. just look at how their arguments are polar opposites with little reasoning... they're just joking around to fill time for day 1 and fish for information

Canada4732 Posts

February 15 2010 03:03 GMT

#786

Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.

In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.

BC i'm commenting on your post, had to get a word in edgewise because these two parties are silly.

Bill Murray

United States9292 Posts

February 15 2010 03:05 GMT

#787

see how he's still light-heartedly making fun of him doctorh?

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

February 15 2010 03:06 GMT

#788

see how he's saying their arguments are relevant and shouldn't be ignored billmurray?

Zato-1

Chile4253 Posts

February 15 2010 03:08 GMT

#789

On February 15 2010 09:26 Caller wrote:
Thus, the mayor's role, assuming a townie gets in, is to try and organize town so as to search the bodyguards. Mafia don't have as strong of an incentive to kill DTs right now because DTs are a great way to get the roles of the opposing mafia. Thus, DTs can feel safe to check the bodyguards and the mayor should allow the DTs to get the bodyguard list. The problem is finding a way to get the DTs to contact the mayor while avoiding infiltrators posing as DTs to do role checks. But I think the risks for infiltration are too high-at best they will get one enemy mafia, and at worse will lose the infiltrator-a trade that I think will not be worth it. While I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm saying the incentives are too strong against it to make it worthwhile.

There's a problem with your plan, Caller.

Imagine that I'm a mafia member from the Gambino family. I know that neither the mayor or the pardoner are from my ranks, and we have no infiltrated bodyguards. Since my family's goal is to kill all members of the Sumiyoshi family, this includes potentially killing the mayor / pardoner, because there's a good chance at least one of them is from the other family. Because they will be immune to hits due to bodyguards, getting the list of bodyguards will be quite valuable and possibly well worth the trade.

Bill Murray

United States9292 Posts

February 15 2010 03:15 GMT

#790

very wise zato

Bill Murray

United States9292 Posts

February 15 2010 03:15 GMT

#791

the only problem with your analysis, though, my friend... is that you're already thinking from the perspective of an opposing mafia. Why?
WHY ZATO?

Bill Murray

United States9292 Posts

February 15 2010 03:16 GMT

#792

On February 15 2010 12:06 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
see how he's saying their arguments are relevant and shouldn't be ignored billmurray?

i see that, but you see how he's still poking at him in relation to the "trap" half-heartedly?

DoctorHelvetica

United States15034 Posts

February 15 2010 03:17 GMT

#793

Yes it was a humorous

but he is still arguing that the trap is stupid

so it isn't important whether he's poking fun or not because there is still an argument there.

789

United States959 Posts

February 15 2010 03:19 GMT

#794

On February 15 2010 12:15 Bill Murray wrote:
the only problem with your analysis, though, my friend... is that you're already thinking from the perspective of an opposing mafia. Why?
WHY ZATO?

It would make sense to think in the shoes of the other factions if you plan to beat them. If you're with the town - you try to think of how the 2 mafia families are thinking and what they are trying to accomplish. If your from family A, you do the same for both the down and family B. And of course the same goes for family B with the town and family A. With a three opposing faction it doesn't make sense not to try to think like another faction and how to use them against the remaining faction.

As for Zato ... that's neither here nor there. I have no clue if he's mafia or not lol.

Ace

United States16096 Posts

February 15 2010 03:20 GMT

#795

On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.

In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.

BC i'm commenting on your post, had to get a word in edgewise because these two parties are silly.

Of course you can't see it, cuz you're not me ^_^

Don't worry about Iaaan. Dr.H comes off way more suspicious for the mere fact he's equating my behavior as Mafia-ish. Really do we have to go through this every game where someone keeps trying to get a bandwagon against me?

Either way like I said if you're going to try and use clues as the motivating factor for lynches this game then the town has to agree to hold anyone responsible for mistakes. If you start a bandwagon, or are a main contributor in the lynching of a townie you deserve to be lynched off the bat. No exceptions. In the event I die, when I flip green I really don't want anyone to say "well it was a mistaken clue interpretation".

Canada4732 Posts

February 15 2010 03:21 GMT

#796

On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.

Clue Analysis: Day 1

Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.

Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”

“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”

“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”

“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”

Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”

“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”

“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”

Analysis

Mafia A

I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.

The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.

I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651

It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.

The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.

Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.

The third one I have linked is

Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.

Mafia B

Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.

The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.

I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no?

That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other

I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel.