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TL Mafia XVIII - Page 41

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
February 15 2010 03:25 GMT
#801
On February 15 2010 12:23 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Has tree.hugger ever made a post, or has it just been his vote for Ace just now?

Don't think so. It'd be with his normal posting pattern, though - he wasn't overactive in the last game.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
Iaaan
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada578 Posts
February 15 2010 03:27 GMT
#802
On February 15 2010 12:20 Ace wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.

In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.

BC i'm commenting on your post, had to get a word in edgewise because these two parties are silly.


Of course you can't see it, cuz you're not me ^_^

Don't worry about Iaaan. Dr.H comes off way more suspicious for the mere fact he's equating my behavior as Mafia-ish. Really do we have to go through this every game where someone keeps trying to get a bandwagon against me?

Either way like I said if you're going to try and use clues as the motivating factor for lynches this game then the town has to agree to hold anyone responsible for mistakes. If you start a bandwagon, or are a main contributor in the lynching of a townie you deserve to be lynched off the bat. No exceptions. In the event I die, when I flip green I really don't want anyone to say "well it was a mistaken clue interpretation".



I'm happy your not worrying about me, but I have a posting coming up on why you are mafia. You'll be happy that its not based off clues.
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
February 15 2010 03:29 GMT
#803
ok cool, no problem. Just make sure that in the event of my death you offer yourself up for lynching when I flip green ok?
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
February 15 2010 03:32 GMT
#804
On February 15 2010 12:24 SugiuraMidori wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 12:22 d3_crescentia wrote:
So how do we go about getting bodyguards checked?


Read more... bodyguards check normally, nothing special about them as far as checks.

I'm sorry, maybe I should rephrase - why was the bodyguard check suggested in the first place and/or what kind of benefit do we get from doing it? That's what I'm confused about.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
February 15 2010 03:32 GMT
#805
On February 15 2010 12:29 Ace wrote:
ok cool, no problem. Just make sure that in the event of my death you offer yourself up for lynching when I flip green ok?
-______-
at least give the man a chance to talk. stop bullying people.

laaaan i look forward to your post .
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
February 15 2010 03:35 GMT
#806
I'm not bullying. I'm just hammering home the idea that no one is getting off with any "oops" situations like we've had in the past. The game with Qatol as a Mafia Mayor was the worst example of it I've ever seen and we need to start correcting it.
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
Iaaan
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada578 Posts
February 15 2010 03:36 GMT
#807
My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful.

For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game.

Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town.

So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice.


The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy.
+ Show Spoiler +

On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:
enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because...

I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR
[image loading]

PLATFORM
I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory.

I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town.

Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living.

THE OTHER CANDIDATES
All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen).

Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone:
Show nested quote +
2/14 16:21

logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.

now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess.
Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise.

PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE
Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes).

My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me.

LYNCH CANDIDATE
If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted.

So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but

FUTURE PLANS
To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis.

If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more.

Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly).

tl;dr
You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent.

Thank you for your time.



The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans.

First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason.

As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy.

As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace.

Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet.


I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post:
On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.

In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.


I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything.

My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way.

I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response.
Iaaan
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada578 Posts
February 15 2010 03:38 GMT
#808
And if the town thinks that I should be lynched if I'm wrong, that's fine, I do agree that people should be held accountable. I would be a little sad of wasting a lynch on a green, but like I stated, lynching power isn't so significant at this point.

BloodyC0bbler
Profile Blog Joined September 2004
Canada7875 Posts
February 15 2010 03:39 GMT
#809
On February 15 2010 12:21 L wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.


Clue Analysis: Day 1

Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.

Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”

“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”

“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”

“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”

Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”

“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”

“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”


Analysis

Mafia A

I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.

The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.

I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651

It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.

The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.

Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.

The third one I have linked is

Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.

Mafia B

Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.

The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.


I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no?

That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other

I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel.





My issue with mystlord being used as the rooftop killer is that you hear the sounds of gunfire. As the woman from his profile picture has some form of blade, it seems to destroy that point. I could be horribly wrong, but its my own take on it. However mystlord does link in multiple locations.
#3 Member of the Chill Fanclub / Rhaegar fought nobly. Rhaegar fought valiantly. Rhaegar fought honorably. And Rhaeger died. --Ser Jorah Mormont TL MAFIA FORUM http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/index.php?show_part=31 go go !
Ace
Profile Blog Joined October 2002
United States16096 Posts
February 15 2010 03:42 GMT
#810
oh dear

/facepalm
Math me up, scumboi. - Acrofales
meeple
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
Canada10211 Posts
February 15 2010 03:47 GMT
#811
On February 15 2010 12:36 Iaaan wrote:
My posts have been a bit lacking of content so far, I'll try to be a bit more insightful.

For the town to win, we do not need to kill mafia; the Mafia‘s own KP will be the greatest weapon against the Mafia. What we, the town, needs to do is prepare for the later parts of the game, when our influence on the game really matters. In order to get ready for when our own KP matters, we need information. People have talked about putting together information, by profiling the clues, making circles of people who are connected to each other, and just watching what people post. The other way I can think of getting information is through lynches; if one person being red incriminates another person, it is more useful for the town to lynch them, again with the idea of controlling the balance between the mafia families in the later game.

Other than having information, how can we increase our chance of winning? By killing the experienced Mafia. It makes sense to me that the veteran players are taking charge of their Mafia families. Therefore, while killing random Mafia members at this point may not ultimately benefit the town (you may disagree, but it would really just give an early advantage to one of the Mafia families), killing their leader will help the town.

So who, with what I’ve said so far, who is the best person to lynch? Ace. Ace. is organizing one of the Mafia families, and Redtooth is his accomplice.


The way I have linked them is through Redtooths post for candidacy.
+ Show Spoiler +

On February 15 2010 06:53 redtooth wrote:
enough of this. time to get the ball rolling. please prepare for content because...

I AM ANNOUNCING MY CANDIDACY FOR MAYOR
[image loading]

PLATFORM
I am running for mayor. Some of you may know that I never run for any position regardless of my role, the reasons being similar to the ones Ver listed. However, I am willing to invest enough energy and effort to lead the town to victory.

I have participated in enough mafia games and have developed an adequate understanding of the game. My play so far has demonstrated that I am capable of the high level thinking required for mayor of the town.

Also, I am a Decision Science major at Carnegie Mellon. I play mafia for a living.

THE OTHER CANDIDATES
All of the other veterans running thus far (Ace, BC, L) have too much suspicion surrounding them to be good mayor candidates. Some of the other candidates are either jokes (Chezinu, MasterDana, l10f), or unproven so far in the game (meeple, DrH, citizen).

Electing Ver after how the early portion of the elections played out earlier is very very dangerous. I stated earlier that we should not vote for Ver but refrained from explicitly laying out the reasons why. Now that he has outright declared his candidacy, I guess it's time to share my thought process. Quoting an earlier PM I sent to someone:
Show nested quote +
2/14 16:21

logically it would make sense not to give Ver the "option" to step in and win the election. each mafia family will likely send out one mayor candidate and that makes elections hard enough. that's why we scrutinize the list of mayor candidates so thoroughly. if we give Ver the "option" of becoming mayor, he isn't scrutinized as much and when pressed on the idea that mafia families would push a member to candidacy he could say that he was "forced" into the position. or if a member of the same mafia family would be runner up in the votes then he could just step aside and use that fact later as defence.

now were he to have outright declared candidacy in the first place i wouldn't have minded voting for him. actually i probably would have voted for him. but that thought process would have been much different. he seems like such an attractive candidate now because he's smart and wasn't involved in any of the mess.
Ver has, knowingly or unknowingly, taken advantage of the opportunity and halfheartedly declared his candidacy. This is the exact position we wanted to avoid. Before I was planning on running for Mayor, I requested that he withdraw his candidacy but I think just explaining the reasons in public should be enough to show that electing him as mayor is unwise.

PRE-EMPTIVE DEFENSE
Some may be suspicious of me due to my somewhat passionate defense of Ace. As stated before, I have a high degree of respect for Ace and did not want to kill him off due to what I perceived as clue analysis on red herrings. I also don't believe any of the veterans should be killed to "gain interesting insight into how Incognito's clues are going to work" (quoted from [NyC]HoBbes).

My late entry into mayoral race shouldn't be regarded with too much suspicion either. Nobody expected the mayor candidates to be caught up in so much shit. I wasn't voted for prior to my announcement so my argument against Ver's candidacy doesn't apply to me.

LYNCH CANDIDATE
If elected mayor, I plan on lynching Bill Murray. There are obvious reasons (noted by Chezinu in a previous post) why we should be suspicious of him but there is much more to gain from lynching BM. So far he has presented himself as either a bad mafia or an idiot townie. Of course there is a chance that he flips green when mayor lynched and we waste a lynch but we get rid of a player that has a history of being detrimental to the town and isn't too valuable an asset to the town if he is indeed green. However, in the case that he flips red, we are provided with a wealth of information via the list that he posted.

So far Bill has yet to post a legitimate defense, choosing instead to make a string of five or so posts that amounts to a desperate strike back at those that accused him. This makes him highly suspicious in my book. I am planning on checking over his behavior in the last game he played but

FUTURE PLANS
To kill the mafia of course. We have to use our lynches to maximum efficiency and somehow get the DTs to broadcast their information without revealing their identity. Later on in the game, clue analysis should be more abundant than ever before because all players (mafia and town-aligned) benefit from the analysis.

If Bill Murray flips red then the focus should immediately shift to the list he posted. The most notable oddity in the list was the absence of Ace despite the mountain of suspicion surrounding him. Please also remember that I was on the list. If anything, it would make sense that either both of us are on the list (a mafia defending a fellow mafia), neither of us are on the list (a townie defending a fellow townie), or Ace is on but I'm not (a mistaken townie risking his neck to defend a mafia). It doesn't make sense that I am on the list but Ace is not (a mafia defending a random townie). Please note that my attempt to lynch Bill Murray isn't out of anger towards him due to my name being on the list. So as of now I would place Ace in the same 'group' as Bill Murray. Though I fought hard to defend Ace thus far, he is far from exonerated and L's clue analysis is as solid as you can possibly get with only Day 1 clues. That means, depending on what color Bill flips, Ace becomes highly suspicious once more.

Having said all that I feel that we should keep all the veterans alive as long as possible. They are capable of identifying mafia and (whether its through clue analysis or behavior analysis) call out individuals to lynch. Why is this beneficial for the town? Well as I stated earlier, town can't win if mafia takes out town first but at the same time a mafia family can't win unless they kill off the other mafia family. To identify and call out a mafia member in public would mean either the town or the opposing mafia family can kill that person off. Also, anyone who's been mafia before would know that killing off a veteran mafia member doesn't really get rid of their influence (due to reasons I don't want to state publicly).

tl;dr
You shouldn't vote for other mayor candidates due to various reasons. Vote for me. I am reasonable, logical, and have basic plans with more in the making. Most importantly, I am innocent.

Thank you for your time.



The things that make me consider him Mafia are his pre emptive defence, lynch candidate, and his future plans.

First off, the preemtive defence. Quite simply, this is him justifying his support for Ace. First Redtooth supports Ace, claiming that the Day 1 clues are always useless. Later he wavers slightly in his support, contradicting himself and admitting that the clues may be useful, but now it looks like he has gone back to supporting Ace. This could be a little ambiguous, but I think that complete/blind trust is suspicious, and maybe Redtooth thinks that aswell. This is also significant, because Redtooths main defence against accusations against him, and people linking him to Ace is that Redtooth claims to mistrust Ace, while refusing to provide a reason.

As for lynching Bill Murray in order to determine Ace’s roll, this is just silly. I think most of us can see that Bill Murray was being dumb, but not mafia. By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information. Redtooth also states that we should keep veterans alive; I can’t say this makes him mafia, it sounds reasonable, but I’ve stated my reasons already why keeping veterans alive is not a good strategy.

As for other supporting facts, Ace’s posts arguing with L have not actually refuted any of his points, only deflected them by agreeing with Redtooth that Day 1 clues are useless, when I think it is pretty clear that the clues COULD point to Ace.

Other people supporting Ace include Decafchicken, who hasn’t said anything, but just voted for Ace (assuming one of the Mafia families candidates are Redtooth and Ace, Ace is the one with more votes, thus the logical one to vote for), and Abenson hasn’t really added anything, only supported Ace IIRC. These peoples connections aren’t solid, and I’m sure there are other people with similar connections, but I haven’t bothered to find them yet.


I haven’t covered anything, but many things have already said if you have read through the thread, but I do want to quote this one post:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 12:03 L wrote:
Ace and I, while often opponents, do not typically argue about this we consider irrelevant. If Ace says he thinks clues are worthless, he actually thinks clues are worthless. Many of our arguments come up after the game ends again because neither of us are convinced that our opposite made a good case.

In the current instance, I don't see what Ace's argument is other than "I SET A TRAP BECAUSE EVERYONE WHO AGREES WITH L MUST BE MAFIA". Seems pretty dumb; if you actually set that trap, you'd be going balls deep trying to kill Iaaan.


I agree with many things L has said, the most relevant one being that Ace’s arguments/”trap” are bad, and I support him for saying he may lynch Ace if elected. I was considering voting for citizen, but L is more active, and again I agree with a lot of what he has to say. I can think of a few more reasons that L is the best candidate, but this post is getting pretty long, and my focus is on Ace If anything is unclear/missing, I am happy to talk about that in a later post; I know I haven’t included everything.

My last thought, following the theme of getting information for later in the game from out lynch, if Ace is red, it could rule out the other people being accused for the blinding/brightness clues if he flips green, and if he flips red, it gives us a circle of potential Mafia. We win either way.

I await your counter arguments; I hope you consider this accusation worthy of a response.


I enjoy that you revisited this, and please correct me but what is new about this argument for Ace? We've already discussed that:
1) Clues may point to him
2) He had a vigorous defense that may be suspicious to some

L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
February 15 2010 03:48 GMT
#812
On February 15 2010 12:39 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 12:21 L wrote:
On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.


Clue Analysis: Day 1

Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.

Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”

“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”

“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”

“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”

Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”

“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”

“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”


Analysis

Mafia A

I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.

The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.

I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651

It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.

The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.

Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.

The third one I have linked is

Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.

Mafia B

Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.

The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.


I have issues with your analysis of the clues for Mafia A, as you've called them. The persona you've established, specifically the 'horseman who blinds with light" is inaccurate. Not only does the horseman blind, but he is blinded himself during paragraph 2. This double take on the same theme is massive, and is pretty much the EXACT same format that was used to introduce truthbringer's chaingun. Additionally, the clues aren't clear on who jumped through the wall, but from the flow of text, it seems that it is the first horseman who does; the other stays back and laughs. I could be wrong here on two counts; it isn't certain that the horseman in para 2 is the same as the first one, but it seems odd that blindness as a theme would be repeated, no?

That said, granted the ambiguous nature of which qualities are ascribed to which horseman, its entirely possible that you're 100% right regarding someone here and that Ace is the other horseman, which is something I worried about while initially looking at the clues. This uncertainty in attribution is why I think Emp is the more assured cluetell, but I'm still not really done thinking about the risk/reward profile of lynching him vs Ace granted the information disparity that we'd gain from killing one over the other

I don't entirely agree with your analysis of Mafia B either; Mystlord seems like a far better candidate for the rooftop killer granted the weapon and location of the picture. The link to fire is one of those perennially used ones that leads to herrings, so I wouldn't try to go fire-> someone without other links. If you read my link to Emp, you'd know there's a fire element there too. I'm pretty certain that most of the Mafia B clues need more fleshing out before we can be accurate with them, with the exception of the angel.





My issue with mystlord being used as the rooftop killer is that you hear the sounds of gunfire. As the woman from his profile picture has some form of blade, it seems to destroy that point. I could be horribly wrong, but its my own take on it. However mystlord does link in multiple locations.


I don't see how you rip someone's head off with a gun. Interesting observation, though. I didn't think the link between the noises and the hyena had to link directly to the rooftop killer, but they might.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 15 2010 03:48 GMT
#813

By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information
- i agree with using a fact and lying to make the lie more believable, but how did you come to the conclusion that i was green?

I was considering voting for citizen
- why? he is behaving completely differently this game compared with the last game... he is scheming and lurking in the shadows.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
February 15 2010 03:48 GMT
#814
.
laaan i was even looking forward to your post.
how does everybody see that ace and i can't both be mafia?
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
February 15 2010 03:48 GMT
#815
goddamit. meant to say how does everybody not see...
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7446 Posts
February 15 2010 03:50 GMT
#816
On February 15 2010 12:48 Bill Murray wrote:

Show nested quote +
By saying that Ace is red if BM is red, when BM is obviously green, Redtooth is creating an arbitrary defence for Ace, as well as wasting a lynch on killing a townie that will not give us any useful information
- i agree with using a fact and lying to make the lie more believable, but how did you come to the conclusion that i was green?

Show nested quote +
I was considering voting for citizen
- why? he is behaving completely differently this game compared with the last game... he is scheming and lurking in the shadows.

Because the word citizen is in the day post. People like to play it safe and if citizen is mafia, it is the perfect cover.
lol, clueless in The Prism!
Incognito
Profile Joined November 2008
United States2071 Posts
February 15 2010 03:51 GMT
#817
As a reminder, please keep your posts and pms civil. I've received some complaints about the flaming. You have been warned. If you keep it up you will be modkilled.
The bureaucracy is expanding to meet the needs of the expanding bureaucracy
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 15 2010 03:52 GMT
#818
On February 15 2010 12:48 redtooth wrote:
.
laaan i was even looking forward to your post.
how does everybody see that ace and i can't both be mafia?


I really would like to hear your reasoning behind the gradual shift from trusting Ace to distrusting him.
RIP Aaliyah
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 15 2010 03:56 GMT
#819
Logged arguments up to page 29, not ready for an update yet.
RIP Aaliyah
madnessman
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States1581 Posts
February 15 2010 03:57 GMT
#820
On February 15 2010 10:52 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Well L, cause you asked me to. This is a rough outline of how I would link people on day 1 analysis. I don't think that much of it is spot on, but after viewing your bit on Emp, I strongly agree he fits insanely well for the Radiant being part.
Note: I did not use spellcheck on anything.


Clue Analysis: Day 1

Firstly, there are assumptions to this list. Each mafia has two family members involved with the killings (two for each family). There could easily be more. The links I will also be centering on will be around themes specific to each included killer. IE. Because it was mentioned that it was dark 8 times does not mean that it is a clue, just word choice.

Mafia A – The horsemen
“Sure enough, the two horsemen began slowly approaching the town. They did not rush across the field, but drifted in and out of the shadows, taking cover from the shadows cast by the clouds.”

“he horses neighed, and the first horseman charged dreamflower, spear aimed low at her gut. Dreamflower was blinded from the moonlight that reflected off the horseman, and was a little slow to react.”

“Noticing Qatol sneak quietly into the barn to his right, the horseman charged and leaped through the thin walls of the barn, landing straight on Qatol, who died instantly.”

“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“But his path was suddenly blocked by one of the horsemen”
“He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk.”

Mafia B – The pyro, psychopath, and the radiant.
“The house immediately combusted into flames as a torch flew through the window, igniting the oil-soaked residence. dreamflower’s last thoughts were confusion, for she thought that the torch flew through the window opposite the two horsemen.”

“but they quickly retreated back to the safety of their homes once they heard gunshots and a hyena-like noise outside.”

“The crazed psychopathic noises approached swiftly, and Incognito had no time to react as a shadowy figure leapt from a roof above and ripped his head off, still laughing as it raced down another alley leading out of the town square.”

“However, at the end of the alleyway, he noticed a light getting brighter and brighter in magnitude. He heard a scowl, as the horseman turned around and fled the other way, riding as if he were either blinded or drunk. Kennigit emerged from behind the wine barrel, thinking that an angel had saved the town. Unfortunately, Kennigit did not find favor from the now radiant creature, and exploded into a shower of blue light. A few moments later, however, and the town was once again consumed with darkness.”


Analysis

Mafia A

I believe that there is possibly three members of this family used.

The first fits the theme of a charging horsemen who when struck with light at night can blind someone. Note. This person should be trained in the usage of a spear, or be wearing something reflective.

I believe CynanMachae fits that description from the picture he has in his profile found
http://www.teamliquid.net/userfiles/23719.jpg?1265785651

It also links to Ace as per L has stated based on his profile picture and Quote.
I believe Cynan better fits the description, as well, deathscythe uses a scythe not a spear. Seems like a mistake that wouldn’t be overlooked.

The second mafia member from this family I believe linked to, is the cackler. It is also who I believe killed qatol. He Cackles, which to me is an odd way to describe laughter, he observes qatol quickly, breaks through a thin wall, and kills him instantly.
This is someone who to me would be insane/mad and dangerous. I think the best fit for this is
Mystlord – He has a quotation made by the joker in his profile, and has someone who looks well, insane as a profile picture.

Madnessman – His name implies he is mad, as well as a profile picture that stresses having guts, and a quote saying “no pain no gain”. As he lept through a wall, I would say this covers pain for gain, and cackling for mad.

The third one I have linked is

Scamp – A horsemen blocked Kennigit randomly, much like his profile has a cat blocking a gutter.

Mafia B

Mystlord – He best fits to my quick look for the fire reference. I may have missed a profile relating to fire, but I believe his was the one that best stood out for it.
Second mafia I am unsure on, other than it was someone who uses guns, makes animal noises and was a shadowy figure. This last bit means he might not be human per se. If I had to guess I would go with Masterdana for having a dog in his profile and references to fps games.

The last one would be the radiant mafia. After looking at the information given, I will agree with L that this sounds a lot like empryean and could also link to zona for his fucked up picture, however empryean is a must stronger link.


I'm going to this just because I don't want either one of the mafia teams to jump to the conclusion that I'm on their opposing team and kill me off

While I can't argue against there being clues against me in the text, I do think your analysis is a bit weak in that 1. with enough of a stretch, you can link clues to anybody and 2. the madness connection might be a bit too blatant.

With respect to 1, I think that trying to link me to the killer for running through a wall is a bit much, just because my desc. says "no pain no gain" and having guts. If anything, charging through a wall should indicate strength, force, power. But said walls are described as "thin," and probably wouldn't be very painful to charge through, so I think your point is moot either way. Maybe if the killer had charged through a brick wall, it'd be a different story. Finally, there is no indication that the guy who rips Incognito's head off with a laugh is the same one who charges through a wall.

With respect to 2, me being the mafia because of "crazed psychopathic noises" would be a terrible clue lol. It'd be equivalent to Incognito writing a clue trying to pinpoint you, and saying: "the horseman trotted across bloody cobbles." I doubt a clue would be so blatant and so not clever, if you get what I'm saying :/. Tying me to "crazed psychopathic noises" takes no work whatsoever--you don't even have to take the effort to look at my damn profile.

Also, what happened to:

On February 14 2010 12:00 BloodyC0bbler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 11:56 Mystlord wrote:
On February 14 2010 11:45 Ace wrote:
Knowing this, I'm not surprised LL and Zato -1 are already accusing me. Look people, especially for you new players - I'm one of the biggest targets in any Mafia game. Every time. I'm super valuable. I catch people in lies all the time and I always save townies from the obvious bandwagon deaths. L and Zato may not have blatantly accused me but they just planted a seed of suspicion on me of all people, based on some wild clues. Be very wary of light weight accusations like this.

Such elitism.

Regardless, I'm still all for incorporating clues into Day 1 discussion. For instance, we now have a defense from you, which is good for building a profile, whether you're innocent or not.


They are interesting to look at mystlord, but however, day 1 clues almost always end up being red herrings, and random accusations, even backed by clues aren't too good for the person doing them unless they end up being right. I learned that the hardway.


Clues aside, I would say that my posting behavior hasn't been suspicious either. I haven't been trying to swing votes or sway public opinion, nor have I been lurking/hiding.

Finally, I noticed in your clue analysis that you tie random clues that are a bit of a stretch to two people in particular -- me and Scamp. Coincidentally, both of us are also voting L for mayor. Maybe this is a big insidious plan in which YOU'RE mafia, and you're secretly basing your clue analysis from analyzing the votes for mayoral candidates thinking they'll help you kill off opposing mafia members?!?!

Lol the whole Scamp and me thing is probably just a coincidence... I'm just being ridiculous.
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