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TL Mafia XVIII - Page 32

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 22:40 GMT
#621
I stopped at page 24, I'm a bit exhausted. Here is my post so far:

Argument Compilation

Anything listed in red is an objectively untrue statement or something I find completely ridiculous. I didn't list a lot of redundant arguments for the sake of time, but I got mostly everything. I've changed my mind a bit after going back and really scrutinizing every post. I suggest everyone do the same, you'd be surprised what bad conclusions you may have come to because you weren't really thinking.

I blame my lack of focus yesterday due to packing up my room and playing video games while half-assedly browsing the mafia thread, but from now on I'm on full alert ;o

I will post another update to this when I feel it's relevant.

KEEP IN MIND THAT I DID NOT COMPILE ARGUMENTS FROM PAGE 24 OR BEYOND

BloodyC0bbler
+ Show Spoiler +

Argues that people should vote him for mayor because he is a strong player who can guide the town.

I don't need to offer a strategy for the town to be mayor.

l10f has done nothing to get people to vote for him, anyone who votes for him is suspicious.

Don't use previous games to justify actions in this one.

If L is mafia he wants Ace dead because Ace is another mafia or a strong townie.


Ver
+ Show Spoiler +
Discussing clues too much on the first day helps the mafia, Day 1 clues are very vague and shouldn't be taken seriously until later.

Posting behavior isn't very easy to lynch people off of unless they make bad mistakes.

We need to have a plan for the elected/blue roles and gather as much information as possible.

Don't hide your thoughts. Post whatever, the more active people are the harder it is for mafia to hide.

Instead of making immediate accusations based on clues, build clue profiles that grow stronger over time.

Primary suspect is BloodyC0bbler due to a change in posting behavior.


L
+ Show Spoiler +
Looking at clues is very helpful, even on Day 1 because the clues are very good this time around.

The clues very clearly point toward Ace as being mafia.

Ace is discouraging clue analysis because he knows it will kill him.

We can't afford to waste any lynches.

Clues will help the mafia kill eachother for the benefit of the town.

Ace needs to provide an alternative person to fit the day 1 clues.

Ace is mafia because he refuses to analyze the clues and provide an alternative even though he is "innocent"

The majority of anything people discuss lead to innocent deaths. Discussion still needs to happen and will tell us who is active and who isn't.

Don't treat this game like a large 1 mafia game. Clues will be very important here.

There isn't necessarily a clear clue division between the two families.

The clues pointing to Ace are specific and very clear, not at all a stretch.

It isn't likely that clues will grow stronger over time due to the sheer amount of mafia in this game.

Don't make useless posts.

People should listen to my clue analysis because I am very good at it.

Town can't waste time due to KP disparity.

Saying Ace is innocent because Incog wants him alive makes it too easy to twist clues.

Mafia might have several good/veteran players.

People look more innocent if herring clues apply to them.

If Ace is red, Malongo probably is too.

Don't be scared to kill a good player on day 1.

I'm not trying to force Ace to die, I'm trying to analyze the clues. Offer an alternative fit if you want to turn away suspicion.

I don't want Ace dead, I want the moonlight rider dead.


Zato-1
+ Show Spoiler +
The Horsemen are on a different team from the torch thrower, the psychopath is on a different team from the angel.

There may come a time when we may need to help one mafia family survive over another.

The clue connection to Ace is strong, but perhaps not strong enough.

Ace needs to argue against the clues, not the people analyzing them.

Our job as town is to direct the mafia into killing eachother.

It seems redtooth has an ulterior motive for defending Ace.


laaan
+ Show Spoiler +
Clues promote discussion which helps the town.

There is a possibility that BloodyCobbler's profile fits the clues.

Town should focus on keeping good players alive while the mafia kill eachother.

Mafia will want the pardoner role.


l10f
+ Show Spoiler +
We shouldn't point fingers until later days.

If I am elected, I will lynch someone who was previously mafia.

Chezinu is mafia and I will lynch him if I'm mayor.


DoctorHelvetica
+ Show Spoiler +
Let's not make accusations based on clues until later. Worry about the mayor lynch.

Agrees with Ver that clue profiling will be very helpful.

Don't lynch Day 1 based on clues, they're useful later.

BloodyCobbler should be lynched because the accusations on him are based on posting behavior and inconsistency.

Use clues to help DT's and the town in the late-game.


Malongo
+ Show Spoiler +
We need a protected DT.

Disagrees with Ver, even a wrong or fake analysis can help us.

l10f should be mayor because he claimed blue
l10f never roleclaimed a blue role

Caller, L, and BC are mafia
Caller. Half inactive up to now. Posted defending BC out of nowhere.
L: Wanted to change his profile. Not really doing what he does in all games to benefit the town.
BC: Already spotted by ver.


meeple
+ Show Spoiler +
Clues will be very important here.

The accusation on BloodyCobbler is too weak to lynch him.

Town should focus on surviving and hunting mafia


Mystlord
+ Show Spoiler +
We shouldn't lynch on clues before Day 3.

Clues are mostly a vehicle for potentially incriminating discussion.

Don't lynch Chezinu Day 1 arbitrarily.

We need a mayor who is uninvolved in this drama.

Using information from past games isn't helpful.


Caller
+ Show Spoiler +
BloodyCobbler will be such a helpful townie that he's a poor choice for a Day 1 lynch.

Don't lynch strong players without good reason.


d3_crescentia
+ Show Spoiler +
Don't lynch strong players without good reason.

Clues need to be strong in this game, we shouldn't ignore Day 1 clues because there are so many mafia.

We need to keep in mind how the dynamic shifts due to there being 2 mafia.


Abenson
+ Show Spoiler +
Lynching someone based on posts hurts on the first day.

Focus on the elections


Ace
+ Show Spoiler +
Talking about clues early is useless, they are useful later.

I'm being targeted by L and Zato because I'm a good pro-town player. (Implies L and Zat are mafia)

Be wary of light/ungrounded accusations.

Don't lynch strong players unless it is obvious they are mafia.

Blindly pointing fingers is bad no matter what.

Clues are subjective, not objective.

Never rely on clues.

I refuse to provide an alternative because I don't want to point fingers at anyone.

Clues are useful only when processed through DT's.

I can't be mafia because if I acted differently than in previous games everyone would notice and lynch me instantly.

I won't argue about clue analysis because it is subjective. I can debate whether they are valid because that is objective. Clue discussion leads to innocent death.

Don't think of this as 1v1v1, this game is about temporary allegiances as the mafia try to kill eachother.

L is trying to turn the town against me.

Very few people actually doubt me as pro-town.

L is trying to force my death and if I'm green/blue, he's definitely red.


Redtooth
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 clue analysis is useless.

Don't post distracting things.

Ace is right. Clue analysis is the last thing we need right now.

The winning mayor should lynch a veteran mayor candidate.

BloodyCobbler is suspicious.

Mafia will have one person running for mayor at least.

The clues pointing toward Ace are a stretch.

We will never have a good Day 1 analysis.

Incognito wouldn't make obvious clues point to Ace, even if Ace was mafia.

Ace plays aggressive whether he is mafia or town, attacking his argument style is useless.

An alliance between mafia will be terrible for the town.

I agree that we will probably never see 2 sets of clues on 1 mafia.

If Ace was mafia, incognito wants him alive.

Ace is innocent because the clues point to him.

There have been no mafia accusations between L and Ace up until now.
-Untrue. L directly said "I think you're red" to Ace before this post, Ace also implied Zato/L were mafia in his first post although he didn't directly accuse them

L is upset about the last game in which he was mafia which is why he wants Ace dead.

Ace isn't necessarily innocent, the clues just don't point to him. Clue analysis on day 1 is trash.


Dozko
+ Show Spoiler +
Disagrees with Ace: Behavioral analysis is much more subjective than clues.

All we have are Day 1 clues, we shouldn't ignore them.


Chezinu
+ Show Spoiler +
Day 1 clues are good to start discussion.

Use clues to accuse people even if you don't really suspect them, then analyze their reaction.

I should be mayor because I am untrustworthy.

There is no such thing as a wasted post.

Don't kill me.

What people say in public isn't necessarily what they actually think.


Hobbes
+ Show Spoiler +
By lynching active posters with clues pointing toward them, we gain a lot of helpful information.

It isn't a bad idea to lynch Ace.

Just because a player is good doesn't mean they are sacrosanct.


The bolded spoilers are very important as they will shine a lot of light on the argument between Ace/L/Redtooth.

After reading through the thread more closely, I believe clue analysis is a lot more important than I first though. The clues are much stronger and L's point about clue profiling being mostly useless because of the large number of mafia is a very good one. L has been consistent and well-spoken in his arguments.

Ace/Redtooth have been a bit inconsistent and too personal. Saying things like "L is obviously upset about this previous game" doesn't help anything and is just worthless speculation that distracts from the real argument. Ace's refusal to provide an alternative fit cannot be ignored.

L did imply that Ace was butthurt about a previous game and I do hold that against him, unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so (such as trying to provoke a specific reaction)

Read through this and make what you will of it! Keep in mind newer arguments (Page 24 onward) aren't posted here.
RIP Aaliyah
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7446 Posts
February 14 2010 22:46 GMT
#622
WOW Just WOW, You like the first person to get my points down correctly - will read other points now.
lol, clueless in The Prism!
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7446 Posts
February 14 2010 22:53 GMT
#623
defense for Malongo: l10f inferred that he was blue because he had a blue star.
lol, clueless in The Prism!
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 22:55 GMT
#624
He said he should be blue because he had a blue star. If anything that implies that he isn't blue but wants to be and that is why he is running.
RIP Aaliyah
Nikon
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Bulgaria5710 Posts
February 14 2010 23:02 GMT
#625
On February 14 2010 22:55 Ace wrote:
"let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are.

I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too.


Clues are always right. It's just that sometimes our interpretation of them isn't.

On February 15 2010 05:02 redtooth wrote:
i haven't finished reading but i had to ask: who are you again? i don't remember you in any mafia games before and you sure didn't play a lot if you think clue analysis is "usually right" lol. seriously 90% of early accusations based on clue analysis are wrong. go check the other games, there are those good at clue analysis (camlito, BC and i guess pyrr) but most of the other clue analysis from random people are trash and just distractions. like Ver said, it's the behavior analysis and roleclaiming traps that will win games.


Where did I state that clue analysis is "usually right" lol. Don't put words in my mouth. I believe that I said that clues incite posting, at least in the start, which directly increases material to analyse behaviour on. L even kindly took it upon himself to repeat that in a more eloquent manner.
Chezinu
Profile Blog Joined February 2008
United States7446 Posts
February 14 2010 23:03 GMT
#626
On February 15 2010 07:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
He said he should be blue because he had a blue star. If anything that implies that he isn't blue but wants to be and that is why he is running.


But...but.. with that logic.. that means...I'm not the DT...I have to be the DT.. I wants it... no...no..no!!!! lies1!!!

I noticed the same thing you did about malongo's post that is why i sent this pm:

From: l10f [ Profile | Buddy ]
Subject: Re: did you know!
Date: 2/14/10 13:25
You don't understand, it's a tatoo. Therefore I'm at least part blue.

-----------------------------------------
Original Message:
a blue star doesn't make you blue.
lol, clueless in The Prism!
L
Profile Blog Joined January 2008
Canada4732 Posts
February 14 2010 23:04 GMT
#627
Chez claims DT during TSL.

What a jerk.

I'm pretty sure you aren't the DT and are claiming to get those people killed during the lynch/night, but sadly even if you are a DT, there's nothing that you know that we don't. I agree with everyone in the clue section with the exception of 789; i can't fit clues to him that don't fit Emp better.

As far as the behavioral issue; I'm still not 100% certain regarding BM. I expected him to be a bit more angry like RoL was last time he was accused given his level of skill and veterancy.

Redtooth wants to be mayor; offers the safest possible lynch suggestion and nothing else concrete. I've got a feeling that you're a DT, hatter or red. Leaning hatter, tbh.

unless he has some sort of strategical reason for doing so
Getting under Ace's skin is its own reward. Don't really think anyone else warrants the same jabs, besides maybe scamp.

SCAMP START FUCKING POSTING.
The number you have dialed is out of porkchops.
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 23:05 GMT
#628
But you said "I am the DT"

l10f never said "I am blue" he said "I want to be blue"

very different
RIP Aaliyah
789
Profile Joined October 2009
United States959 Posts
February 14 2010 23:15 GMT
#629
Holy crap I've missed alot since yesterday. Unfortunately I won't have a chance to catch up until I get home tonight.
Member of Hyuk Hyuk Hyuk Cafe! He's the next Jaedong, baby!
rredtooth
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
5459 Posts
February 14 2010 23:21 GMT
#630
On February 15 2010 08:02 Nikoner wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 14 2010 22:55 Ace wrote:
"let them kill each other off now" - and how do we do that? It's not like we KNOW who they are.

I disagree with so much of you're post. You're first paragraph is blatantly wrong because clues aren't always right. The very fact that you don't even know what automatically constitutes a clue makes you wrong on that too.


Clues are always right. It's just that sometimes our interpretation of them isn't.

Show nested quote +
On February 15 2010 05:02 redtooth wrote:
i haven't finished reading but i had to ask: who are you again? i don't remember you in any mafia games before and you sure didn't play a lot if you think clue analysis is "usually right" lol. seriously 90% of early accusations based on clue analysis are wrong. go check the other games, there are those good at clue analysis (camlito, BC and i guess pyrr) but most of the other clue analysis from random people are trash and just distractions. like Ver said, it's the behavior analysis and roleclaiming traps that will win games.


Where did I state that clue analysis is "usually right" lol. Don't put words in my mouth. I believe that I said that clues incite posting, at least in the start, which directly increases material to analyse behaviour on. L even kindly took it upon himself to repeat that in a more eloquent manner.
lol what? clues are always right but interpretations are sometimes wrong? what the hell are you saying man? that's like the most obvious statement you can possibly make.. except that it might be wrong lol. people aren't always correct in identifying clues. so basically you're saying "what incognito is intending to be a clue is exactly what he is intending to be a clue". nice one sherlock.

and congrats, clue analysis incited posting. we have ~20 pages of day one clue analysis. now time to stop looking at day one clues and start looking at behaviors and getting the correct people elected and lynched. let me lay it out once more: day one clue analysis doesn't work unless you are a certified expert at it. and even then it doesn't work most of the time.
[formerly sponsored by the artist formerly known as Gene]
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 23:25 GMT
#631
Is L a certified expert at clue analysis? If so why did you argue that his analysis was ridiculous and stretched

and you pretty much said day 1 clue analysis was trash no matter what, you're toning it way down now.
RIP Aaliyah
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 23:27 GMT
#632
On February 15 2010 07:07 meeple wrote:
I'm not convinced that BM is red... if you saw how he played the last game he was in, he's probably just really bad at playing. I'm still sort of leaning towards Ace, both because of the seeming clue connection and because his defense was ridiculously over the top.



this is why i voted for meeple before i switched it to ver


both are very good candidates in terms of intelligence

players like chezinu, redtooth dont see the bigger picture...

players like L and Ace are a bit too egocentric to really do well objectively for the town.


i'm done defending myself. you know why? because if you lynch me that is guaranteed to leave every blue role still alive. i would rather you all lynch an innocent, idiot townie/miller than to lynch someone like ace who is say... a mad hatter
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 23:28 GMT
#633
but killing the mad hatter is the only way to use his power

???
RIP Aaliyah
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 23:32 GMT
#634
dude, you seriously take the smallest bits of my posts and make them into terrible arguments. will you please stop replying to me?
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 23:34 GMT
#635
you mean like the "terrible argument" that you aren't basing any of your accusations on logic and are just pointing fingers while refusing to provide reasons?

sorry for not seeing the bigger picture you're expertly crafting here, lol
RIP Aaliyah
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 23:34 GMT
#636
the reason that's a terrible argument is because of a couple reasons. 1. they have to actually plant the bombs first, the argument even someone like you will understand. 2. it wasn't even the main point of my post. insert the word veteran in relation to ace and it's still making the same point i was trying to make.

go ahead and waste your lynch on me, and when i flip green or black, i will feel comforted by the fact that all the blues will still have a chance to use their powers.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 23:38 GMT
#637
That wasn't even an attack on you. You are being really defensive and honestly you're acting like a child. You're condescending to me even though you have been the primary supplier of ridiculous and nonsensical statements while I have done nothing of the sort. Instead of crying about my "terrible arguments" just defend yourself or objectively state why I'm wrong.

You're still dodging the fact that you have provided no basis for any of your accusations. I'm still most interested to hear your justification for your previous mafia accusations. I wasn't even arguing with you or attacking you about the mad hatter thing lol

I do disagree that L is "too egocentric" for the town. Better a confident player who knows what they are doing than a sheep with no direction for mayor.
RIP Aaliyah
Bill Murray
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States9292 Posts
February 14 2010 23:40 GMT
#638
On February 15 2010 08:38 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
That wasn't even an attack on you. You are being really defensive and honestly you're acting like a child.


you're the one personally attacking me here, is that not childish?
you are concerning yourself with minute details from my posts... is that not pedantic?


you, sir, are being childish and pedantic.
University of Kentucky Basketball #1
DoctorHelvetica
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States15034 Posts
February 14 2010 23:41 GMT
#639
how is the complete lack of reasoning for your accusations a minute detail

i already said im not concerned about the mad hatter issue, stop dodging the real issue
RIP Aaliyah
Iaaan
Profile Joined June 2009
Canada578 Posts
February 14 2010 23:44 GMT
#640
lol @ BM
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