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On February 15 2010 08:40 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 08:38 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
That wasn't even an attack on you. You are being really defensive and honestly you're acting like a child. you're the one personally attacking me here, is that not childish? you are concerning yourself with minute details from my posts... is that not pedantic? you, sir, are being childish and pedantic.
A piece of advice: when everyone thinks you're being almost unimaginably stupid, and your life is in their collective hands, it's not a good idea to lash out at all of them
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On February 15 2010 08:25 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Is L a certified expert at clue analysis? If so why did you argue that his analysis was ridiculous and stretched
and you pretty much said day 1 clue analysis was trash no matter what, you're toning it way down now. honestly i never viewed L as one of those certified experts. i recognize him as a solid player but didn't really see him as a 'clue-guy'. i thought BC was pretty good, pyrr was a bit overrated but solid and consistent, camlito was amazing. but even as good as they may have been, clue analysis on day 1 has never produced any solid results (except for maybe inertinept or decafchicken a looong time ago) and that is why i said that his connections were absurd. instead, day 1 clues usually produce biases and meaningless suspicion so i avoid them like the plague. actually up to the point when i started swaying, i had done zero clue analysis, basically skipped over the day post, hadn't read anybody's profile (including Ace's), and was arguing for Ace's safety due to the reasons i mentioned before (ace is a vet, i want all vets alive). the reason i toned down my criticism of the analysis is because i realized how abnormally long and detailed the day post was so it is possible incognito did sneak in more content than initially perceived. i still don't think we can get anything good out of it but i'm willing to at least listen to L's clue analysis.
let me show you an example of why i think day 1 clue analysis is bad. go read this to understand how incognito makes clues. then go here and see how difficult it is to link the clues to the actual mafia, despite us basically having the answer sheet. THAT is how day 1 clues work, you have to be lucky and ridiculously clever to figure it out.
also, don't forget that there's always a lot more going on in the background that changes my views on players' alignments.
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also i don't think i would lynch bill murray were i to become mayor. at this rate he might just get modkilled so we all win.
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i was just making a funny reference to family guy
i guess you all don't watch that show 
DH, you want me to list why i posted the people i posted?
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A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED
or, why I now agree with L
Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less)
I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc.
Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely.
In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member.
Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely.
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On February 15 2010 08:51 Bill Murray wrote:i was just making a funny reference to family guy i guess you all don't watch that show DH, you want me to list why i posted the people i posted?
yes. you should have done that in the first place
making statements without justifying them is useless
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Well I just caught up reading, decided to do it now instead of when I get home.
DrH, now you know how I feel, this is exactly how BillMurray acted to me last game before he was killed. I'm not sure if he is mafia based on his "slip up" but I am sure that BM should stand for bad mannered.
As for the accusations against myself. The connection of the horsemen to my profile picture ... there really isn't a lot I can say in my defense besides it is a dinosaur in my profile picture. Sort of a lame defene, but I'm not sure what else to say.
The moon blinding dreamflower. On this one It would seem the blinding would be a strong connection to the little poem in my profile referring to the Halls of the Blind in Diablo 1. But if you've played the game I think you'd agree with me that the HotB isn't named as such because it blinds you, but because the enemies are invisible.
As for the mayor vote, I'm going to vote for Citi.zen. I've only played one game and he did a nice job for the town. It isn't enough to blindly follow whatever he does, but enough to earn my day 1 vote being that I don't know most of the rest of the candidates.
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Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should
redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching
laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town,
zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior
ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM
L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game
i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list.
also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes.
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On February 15 2010 08:51 Bill Murray wrote:i was just making a funny reference to family guy i guess you all don't watch that show DH, you want me to list why i posted the people i posted?
Yes please... as a general rule its good to back up your statements.
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On February 15 2010 08:21 redtooth wrote:
and congrats, clue analysis incited posting. we have ~20 pages of day one clue analysis. now time to stop looking at day one clues and start looking at behaviors and getting the correct people elected and lynched. let me lay it out once more: day one clue analysis doesn't work unless you are a certified expert at it. and even then it doesn't work most of the time.
We're almost at the same wavelength now. I've been looking at behavious more than at clues to be honest, in fact, I can't say I've done any clue analysis so far. Although, I forgot to say that clue analysis is stronger for the mafia members since they can rule some people out, or make obvious connections to their members and rule it out. But I digress.
Man, the whole election and lynching thing pushing bothers me a little. The whole dynamic of having two mafia families changes that whole process so much, that it's not even funny. Lynching is kinda dangerous to the town as well, if we lynch a mafia, and the other family kills enough to lower their KP, we've set up quite a nice handicap for a family right there. The other option is to lynch a townie, which is the most neutral option I suppose, but it still hurts us as it removes bodies to absorb stray night kills, and if we lynch a blue role... well, that sucks.
As far as the mayoral election goes, I'll just say that I wouldn't want to be elected.
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now, i should have kept this inside, but it was 4am last night.
i know a normal town should not be trying to take up the focus of the game, so please just forget about me and worry about finding out who is mafia. from now on i am not going to post at all, i am going to be analyzing clues, and i will only post when i feel that the clues add up to point directly towards someone.
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the reason i toned down my criticism of the analysis is because i realized how abnormally long and detailed the day post was so it is possible incognito did sneak in more content than initially perceived. i still don't think we can get anything good out of it but i'm willing to at least listen to L's clue analysis.
This is why I really dislike people bringing pre-conceived notions about how the game should be played from dissimilar games into future games. I talked about this last game too, but using the assumptions we used from mafia 2, for instance, in a small clueless game, seems absurd. Similarly, there's a lot of analyse and deconstruct in the current game.
So for everyone who's making assumptions based on shorthand that you developed in prior games; please stop.
If you don't think clues are relevant day 1 given the size and detail of the day 1 clues we have in our current game, feel free to say why.
Redtooth linked to incog's clue making strategy; Note that its pretty much the exact same thing as what I do; You make a persona (ie, he's a snail for instance, or he's a gundam) and then you simply add a few descriptors which are related from the profile. While its difficult to come up with a persona for some of the cluesets (ie. the hyena like laugh, or the cackling horseman), some of the setups in day 1 are pretty fucking hard to ignore. Empyrean, Ace and Mystlord all fit. Empyrean is the angel. Ace is the moonlight horseman, Mystlord seems to be the rooftop killer. If you have alternative readings of the clue I WANT YOU TO POST and don't give me a 4 line block of trash, either. If you're bad, that's fine; try to focus on a certain part of the text, or take someone's clue analysis and look through the profiles to find alterior fits.
Seriously, get to work you lazy douchebags. We're going to get cut to pieces if you morons just sit around.
Additional note; If i end up being correct on three mafia on the first day there will be much self-aggrandization after the game ends.
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On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely.
It is an important point.
However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done.
Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people.
Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B.
As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone.
Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not.
Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation.
Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc...
Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now.
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On February 15 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote:
Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should
redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching
laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town,
zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior
ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM
L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game
i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list.
also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes.
laaan, after looking through everyones arguments had a bit more to say than other semi-active players.
If people thought if you flip red that ace is mafia were lacking any confidence, this post should end that.
BM accuses Zato and L for accusing Ace of being mafia for "no apparent reason." Go back and read my argument compilation and you will see there are multiple and good reasons for them pointing at Ace as a potential mafia. I also think the wording "wanting to get rid of ace" is very interesting. It is the exact same wording that Ace and redtooth have used in defense. It isn't much but it might suggest some synergy between the players.
If Bill Murray flips green, then that just means he isn't really reading the arguments.
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On February 15 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote:
Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should
redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching
laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town,
zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior
ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM
L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game
i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list.
also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes.
Chez - erratic behavior doesn't always lead to red, and can give an example of when he seems to know more than he should?
laaan - being too lazy to help the town doesn't mean he's red... since that would mean there are like 25 red inactives sitting in the bleachers.
Zato-1 - has stated that he thinks the clues point to Ace... so there is an apparent reason
BC - Not sure why people keep coming to this... he very well might be red, but I don't think there's a correlation between his candidacy posts and him being red, for me it seems like a forced connection.
Ver - Roleclaiming is really odd, but he might be messing with you, unless he explains why he trusts you.
L - same with the other guy... its clear they're both basing their accusations on clues
Mystlord - Not really enough to say for sure, but in addition to his profile pic that could be linked to the arsonist and moon references it might be slightly more suspicious than your average joe.
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On February 15 2010 09:02 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 08:53 DoctorHelvetica wrote:A VERY IMPORTANT POINT THAT HAS BEEN IGNORED or, why I now agree with L Initially I made the mistake of strategizing as I would in a game with 1 mafia family against 1 town and a relatively small number of mafia (say 8 or less) I agreed with Ver thinking "clue analysis will become stronger as clue profiles build on mafia." I know that in Incognitos last game, he used a set order of clues. The first day was myself and keit, then derfboy, phrujbaz, etc. etc. Eventually it repeated and went back to keit, this made the clues on him much stronger. By about the 3rd or 4th day, the town now had a much stronger clue profile on a single mafia and the town could have lynched him a bit more securely. In this game, there are 20 mafia. I assume kills will overlap (meaning Mafia and Yakuza both hit the same target) and medics will eventually do their thing, meaning we might not even get 6 clues a day. If there were exactly 6 kills a night, by the 4th day we would have a "clue profile" with multiple clue sets on a single mafia member. Either we ignore clues completely because of this, or we start analyzing them from Day 1 onward. Unless of course, Incognito decides not to go in a specific order, meaning that we might get multiple clues on a single mafia very early and much more often. But I think that is unlikely. It is an important point. However, as someone who likes clue analyzing. Let me give you an example of day 1 clues should be done. Discussed (yay) but don't actively lynch someone based off of it, its not reliable. You need time to build your profiles of people. Day 1 clues start the process of building mafia profiles. You can usually easy pin in family games, which family is responsible for which killings. You then label them mafia family A, and mafia family B. As clues are given, you put themes under each mafia heading. The more time that goes by, the more you have, the better your chances of linking to someone. Using day 1 clues, you have things that are red herrings, as well as some things that are clues. I enjoy seeing L looking at them, but he looks more like hes pushing to get ace lynched than actually look at the clues. The whole theme of horsemen (at the moment to me) is moot. Things like darkness, or moonlight/blinding, could indeed be clues. However, without more days worth of clues, its harder to know if it is or not. Its why Camlito and MTF post very little analysis until they have solid leads. Until then its wild speculation. Chances are that incog will just link more than 3 members of a family per night, or hell, we are getting 6 mafia per night in clues anyway, we could get really lucky on one of them later, or he could reuse one from day 1 in day 2, etc... Day 1 clues are deff important, but moreso down the line than now.
My argument is that it will take so long to build clue profiles that it will become useless. Doing things like seperating killers into families is all well and good though.
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On February 15 2010 09:01 L wrote:
Additional note; If i end up being correct on three mafia on the first day there will be much self-aggrandization after the game ends.
Lol... there always is...
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On February 15 2010 09:04 meeple wrote:Show nested quote +On February 15 2010 08:58 Bill Murray wrote:
Chezinu - voting history, erratic behavior, seems to know more than a normal townie should
redtooth - blindly supports L, take it back, supports him again, backlashes for my lynching
laaan - voting for L, being too lazy to do anything to help the town,
zato-1 - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
bloodycobbler - as per previous analysis regarding posting behavior
ver - was probably a mistake, but because he ROLECLAIMEDto me in PM
L - wanting to get rid of ace for no apparent reason
Mystlord - seems to be acting the same way from last game
i'd like to eliminate fulgrim from this list.
also, what's citi.zen been doing? he's been a lot less inactive than last game. i wouldn't be too worried about this if he didn't have so many votes.
Chez - erratic behavior doesn't always lead to red, and can give an example of when he seems to know more than he should? laaan - being too lazy to help the town doesn't mean he's red... since that would mean there are like 25 red inactives sitting in the bleachers. Zato-1 - has stated that he thinks the clues point to Ace... so there is an apparent reason BC - Not sure why people keep coming to this... he very well might be red, but I don't think there's a correlation between his candidacy posts and him being red, for me it seems like a forced connection. Ver - Roleclaiming is really odd, but he might be messing with you, unless he explains why he trusts you. L - same with the other guy... its clear they're both basing their accusations on clues Mystlord - Not really enough to say for sure, but in addition to his profile pic that could be linked to the arsonist and moon references it might be slightly more suspicious than your average joe.
People fall back on BC because he is acting differently than he usually does when he is a pro-town role in mafia games, a strong indicator that he may be mafia.
I'd like to see what an experienced player like Ace/L/Ver has to say about his posting behavior now, he seems to be taking it a bit more seriously.
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On February 15 2010 08:04 L wrote:
SCAMP START FUCKING POSTING.
Geez, man. Can't a guy lurk in peace? What exactly do you want me to post about?
I have a question about the game. I'm not 100 percent sure it hasn't been asked already, so sorry if it has. When a DT checks someone and they turn up mafia, does the DT also get to know which family that mafia is from?
I'm looking ahead to the scenerio where one mafia family gets hosed and the last 2 members of the family have to go into the "town protection program."
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Interesting PM you sent me Bill Murray
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Original Message:
dude, im fucking green, you're really making me mad
seriously, if you want me to be friendly with you ever again on these message boards, you will leave me alone.
i am green unless i'm the miller.
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EPT
