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Ok so first things first, anyone that is blue make sure that you use your actions on the first night! It would be a real waste if our DT's weren't detecting anyone, and our medics weren't protecting anyone.
Secondly, as Ian has pointed out that there are a large number of mafia (1/5 people?) in this game, so there are likely mafia among the frequent posters and non-frequent, although losing a more active townie would be a bigger blow then losing someone who just lurks, and rarely checks the thread. (possible bigger reward for taking out active mafia?) So if I'm elected I'm not sure yet who I will lynch, but I'm going to go back and read through most of the posts again, and I may get a clue
Thirdly, I doubt that there are any clues in the starting message, in the previous game I read there didn't seem to be any, I would look for clues after the first mafia kill tonight, and what people are posting.
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Question for BC, when will you modkill people for inactivity?
The other game had a lil discussion about instantly lynching the mayor once they are elected. I don't think its the most fun thing to do, and it would suck for the mayor, and if they have a special role like DT, having them protected would be worth a lot. It would take the risk of putting the Mafia in a position of power however, but I think it would be better to wait until we see how the mayor acts.
I just thought I would throw that out there for discussion, cause it was interesting to read about in the other thread.
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On January 20 2010 12:32 QuickStriker wrote:
My only concern here is that a mafia sneaking in to be a mayor/sheriff which can allow a bit of chaos and the game may destroy us from the inside out...
Let's look at some basic simple statistics here though. We have 34 players, 27 of which are townies where the other 7 are mafias... so by using simple basic math, we get:
Mafias - 20.6%
Other (Non-mafias) - 79.4%
These 2 positions (mayor and sheriff) comes up to about 6% of our population. As 20.6% may seem small or a lot to some people, I believe we really need to be cautious here to make sure that within 20.6%, they won't spread and expand their territory to be of the powerful 6% which makes up mayor/sheriff......
Yes, it's over 1/5 which is 20% for mafias which isn't good. But we are still 80% townie strong so it's safe for now.
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I'm pretty sure if you aren't voting like twice (like 2 different votes/days), you're automatically mod-killed or something.... I read that somewhere before... I think it was under the rules... But in any case, the people must vote and elect the mayor soon. But before that, the candidates must make their claim as well of their intentions.
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@ Fulgrim, I'm pretty sure that there are clues in the first post.
But I do agree that there will be Mafia in both the frequent and non frequent posters, if someone is excited to play this game, they would probably be active whatever role they get. If someone signs up, then just forgets about it, or like doesn't come on TL for whatever reason, then they would be inactive regardless of their role.
But again, with no real reliable indications to peoples roles so far, I think its better to lynch someone who is inactive rather than someone who is active, just because they are more fun, thus why I plan to do that if I get the position of mayor.
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In my eyes, no matter who becomes Mayor (Sheriff in this case...), in whatever Mafia game, the Mayor should always go with what the majority of the town consensus, or else things usually get sticky really fast as seen in the past. (Not just voting, but using the role's powers as well)
There are only a few circumstances when a Mayor wouldn't do what the town desires
- Mayor is Mafia
- Mayor think he is better than everyone else
- The majority of active townies speaking up are Mafia, thus deceived.
- Inner Circles
So as long as our green Townies are sane and active and our Mayor isn't a douche or red, this would be a step in the right direction.
In short, I want a lap dog 
I'm not an active speaker, let me be...
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I also think it's likely that were are clues in the first post though they are definitely not super obvious. I also think it's a good idea to have the DTs role-check sooner rather than later in case they get killed.
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On January 21 2010 10:26 Fulgrim wrote:
Ok so first things first, anyone that is blue make sure that you use your actions on the first night! It would be a real waste if our DT's weren't detecting anyone, and our medics weren't protecting anyone.
Secondly, as Ian has pointed out that there are a large number of mafia (1/5 people?) in this game, so there are likely mafia among the frequent posters and non-frequent, although losing a more active townie would be a bigger blow then losing someone who just lurks, and rarely checks the thread. (possible bigger reward for taking out active mafia?) So if I'm elected I'm not sure yet who I will lynch, but I'm going to go back and read through most of the posts again, and I may get a clue
Thirdly, I doubt that there are any clues in the starting message, in the previous game I read there didn't seem to be any, I would look for clues after the first mafia kill tonight, and what people are posting.
Yes, because the vocal mafia members are the ones that screw things up like you wouldn't believe.
As for my own candidacy, I promised from the beginning moderation and objectivity. Who would I execute immediately? I don't know.
As for who you should vote for; consider that while the chance of any candidate being mafia is essentially even, it would be unwise to elect anyone to whom a (possible) clue may point to. There is a chance that no-re's page 4 analysis is incorrect, but there is also the possibility that elements of it are correct. As such, it would be an idiotic move to elect someone with even a hint of suspicion. That means that dj_crescentia, and Quickstriker are probably the least safe choices, if only by a small amount.
My vote was for Fulgrim because I wondered if a first-time player would so quickly grasp the concept of this election, and the importance of mafia infiltration. But of course, I'd like people to vote for me too.
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Like I said, NOT role-check this early on. The DTs only have 2 of them, we can't waste the role checks like that from day 1. What we need for DT to do is to use "clue check" instead since they have UNLIMITED uses of that.....
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Regarding the votes for the election, there are currently only 6 out of 34 votes casted with one being abstain.... we have about 24 hours left for these votes so I do recommend the townies to look at the individual candidates, think them over, and decide soon. Of course, I know the mafias will cast their votes as well so be wary of that. As well as a possibility of a mafia mayor/sheriff within the candidates..
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Ok this is kind of sad, I read the last few pages that I missed and it seemed like the same 4 people were posting for like the whole day.... Where is everyone else? (this could cause major problems, imagine if half of our game was modkilled...) Quick, d3 and tree, you guys have all been posting a ton, and I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for, have you guys all played before?
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On January 21 2010 10:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 09:52 QuickStriker wrote:
Well no one really can admit they're DT UNLESS they're looking for a death wish. I mean if the DT steps up and admit to himself he's the DT, what do you think will happen? The mafias will auto-target that person and before we know the results of the role check or clue check, he's dead. Bam, gg. So obviously whoever is DT is hidden and cannot reveal as the DT but must act as part of the crowd, as the regular ordinary townie citizen.
That being said, I think the best case for the people running for positions is to state who they do wish to use their first lynch one as that the most important case right now.
Now, I want to move back to the DT matter and note that for DT, there are only 2 role checks you can do and UNLIMITED clue checks. If you look at the rules, that's what it said with explanation. To maximize and help the DT, I gave some suggestions back in previous pages on how to take onto this matter but I'll repeat again in a simple short manner. For the first night, I recommend the DTs to get one post that sums up all clues, have that post checked using "clue check" rather than role check wasting the precious limited uses you can for that. They must suggest and lead the way to the town in which direction this game must go to, and have evidence and reason without revealing you are a DT to everyone, or else you're dead. It's like in the anime deathnote. If Kira sees you, you're going to get written on the notebook and bam. GG. So be wary of that. This is why I have voted for you. I like that you're already trying to help us newcomers and win the game. If you were to be a mafia, you wouldn't be doing this. Back to lynching XeliN Notice he hasn't posted since I called him out!
okay, this is quite an interesting post actually.
QS make this post about why should detective stay hidden, it's well explained but it's all comon sense and the conclusions are what anyone should see with a minimal thought process. detective and medics stay hidden to the mafia blablabla.
Everything is nice and helps newer player in the case they haven't seen it.
Now comes shockeey's post, basically saying how great QS is for saying what should be common sense. That makes me think about three case senarios.
1) QS and shockeey are mafia, they set up behind the scene the act. This goes well with QS's post activity to make people trust him, the intent of this tutorial would then be to try to earn some trust of newer players. Shockeey's post would only be to reinforce this and creat a bandwagon.
2) Shockeey is mafia, QS isn't. Shockeey, seing how QS posts alot wants to try to get in his good side and possibly misslead him. if someone says good things about you, it's harder to say bad things about them.
3) Neither are mafia, Shockeey just didn't saw how blue roles in general should play on his own and is impressed at how a mafia game works.
These maybe are very far away from truth of course.
About the first lynch, right now, killing the most inactive seems the safest choice, but maybe we could play around with the idea of killing shockeey.
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I just took a look at the other mafia game and their last post seems reasonable. I'm pretty sure it can happen here and can be the same case so I'll just quote it away:
On January 21 2010 10:45 citi.zen wrote:
Let me throw this out there: we all agree an elected position benefits the mob, if they can get it. Also, the mob is organized and know each other, so they are likely to pre-determine who will run from their camp.
So my conjecture is this: one and only one of the candidates is a mobster.
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My candidacy for Mayor.
I strongly believe that some of the Mafia have already given themselves away at a very early stage in this and as such know preciciely what I plan on doing were i to be elected into either of the roles. This is subject to change and reconsideration but let me be frank, I would vote to lynch, kill or incarcerate Quickstriker and or crescentia. There are others that I have suspicions about but nothing as strong as my feeling that both of these posters (Most specifically Quickstriker) are being manipulative and acting in a fashion that i would expect the Mafia to act.
I feel i am a decisive person who can evaluate people well and will do everything in my power to lead the town to what I hope to be a penetrating victory.
On a somewhat different tangent:
There has been, by some players, a great emphasis on the DT and what he "ought" to do, without giving myself away entirely I will simply say this, I am NOT the DT and i would advise whoever it is to disregard alot of the "advice" that has been given as to what he ought to do at this stage, quite frankly almost every reference to the DT from some posters so far seems like an attempt to identify and kill him off early and the "advice" given in reference to him is questionable at best.
Furthermore anyone who wishes to question anything about My posts or has any suspicions at all I will respond with openly and what I will intend to be clear and rational.
I urge people to vote me in, I think i am likely to be a target for a mafia given the nature of my posts and openess of my suspicions and so on that basis only i would enjoy the protection. I also feel strongly that some conclusions I have made so far are both logical and valid and as such am compelled to be able to act on them and being elected would make this possible.
I am also slightly drunk as i was playing HoN with a friend on skype and drinking abit so i probably ought to wait untill putting forward a post like this but what did waiting ever acheieve!
Oh as I mentioned skype if anyone is feeling psychological and thinks they would be able to vet me better by talking to me about mafia I would welcome the opportunity to voice chat about it, also i live in a cave and have no friends so it would be good to grab some 
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On January 21 2010 10:48 QuickStriker wrote:I just took a look at the other mafia game and their last post seems reasonable. I'm pretty sure it can happen here and can be the same case so I'll just quote it away: Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 10:45 citi.zen wrote:
Let me throw this out there: we all agree an elected position benefits the mob, if they can get it. Also, the mob is organized and know each other, so they are likely to pre-determine who will run from their camp.
So my conjecture is this: one and only one of the candidates is a mobster.
If we take this last post as true, and the mafia is well organized, then we can assume that the mafia candidate is probably not xelin or man.magic, seeing as they have 0 votes and haven't seemed to post alot.
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On January 21 2010 10:46 Fulgrim wrote:
Ok this is kind of sad, I read the last few pages that I missed and it seemed like the same 4 people were posting for like the whole day.... Where is everyone else? (this could cause major problems, imagine if half of our game was modkilled...) Quick, d3 and tree, you guys have all been posting a ton, and I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for, have you guys all played before?
I've played this game plenty of times before, both in real-life and also in TL mafia in the past. So I have some knowledge and experience of it. My reasoning is at least the very basic level. So that's my story. Don't know about the other guys.
On January 21 2010 10:48 SagaZ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 10:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:On January 21 2010 09:52 QuickStriker wrote:
Well no one really can admit they're DT UNLESS they're looking for a death wish. I mean if the DT steps up and admit to himself he's the DT, what do you think will happen? The mafias will auto-target that person and before we know the results of the role check or clue check, he's dead. Bam, gg. So obviously whoever is DT is hidden and cannot reveal as the DT but must act as part of the crowd, as the regular ordinary townie citizen.
That being said, I think the best case for the people running for positions is to state who they do wish to use their first lynch one as that the most important case right now.
Now, I want to move back to the DT matter and note that for DT, there are only 2 role checks you can do and UNLIMITED clue checks. If you look at the rules, that's what it said with explanation. To maximize and help the DT, I gave some suggestions back in previous pages on how to take onto this matter but I'll repeat again in a simple short manner. For the first night, I recommend the DTs to get one post that sums up all clues, have that post checked using "clue check" rather than role check wasting the precious limited uses you can for that. They must suggest and lead the way to the town in which direction this game must go to, and have evidence and reason without revealing you are a DT to everyone, or else you're dead. It's like in the anime deathnote. If Kira sees you, you're going to get written on the notebook and bam. GG. So be wary of that. This is why I have voted for you. I like that you're already trying to help us newcomers and win the game. If you were to be a mafia, you wouldn't be doing this. Back to lynching XeliN Notice he hasn't posted since I called him out! okay, this is quite an interesting post actually. QS make this post about why should detective stay hidden, it's well explained but it's all comon sense and the conclusions are what anyone should see with a minimal thought process. detective and medics stay hidden to the mafia blablabla. Everything is nice and helps newer player in the case they haven't seen it. Now comes shockeey's post, basically saying how great QS is for saying what should be common sense. That makes me think about three case senarios. 1) QS and shockeey are mafia, they set up behind the scene the act. This goes well with QS's post activity to make people trust him, the intent of this tutorial would then be to try to earn some trust of newer players. Shockeey's post would only be to reinforce this and creat a bandwagon. 2) Shockeey is mafia, QS isn't. Shockeey, seing how QS posts alot wants to try to get in his good side and possibly misslead him. if someone says good things about you, it's harder to say bad things about them. 3) Neither are mafia, Shockeey just didn't saw how blue roles in general should play on his own and is impressed at how a mafia game works. These maybe are very far away from truth of course. About the first lynch, right now, killing the most inactive seems the safest choice, but maybe we could play around with the idea of killing shockeey.
Excellent deduction. I was worried no one would catch on to this as I personally felt strange that shockeey just appear out of nowhere and voted for me and praising me. Of course, none of you have to believe what I say but I'm just saying in my own mindset of how I saw this situation. I definitely considered case 2 and 3 of what you said as it's possible that a mafia can pop out and make such remarks of trying to get on my side. But I was aware of this. #3 is also possible and perhaps it can be greater that maybe in secret, he might be something more than a townie. Now, I also considered #1 as I viewed myself from the outsider form and that is very likely possible too. But these 3 cases are possible, though I would add a fourth case would is also unlikely but possible:
4. Shockeey and/or QS is a blue role (ie. DT) and perhaps trying to get some feedback and strength within the town. Most likely the fact that Shockeey is new to the mafia and the roles thing, and I was able to give him some basic info that is important to know in which he is impressed of my remarks of how he should lead his role (whatever it may be).
Of course I'm not too sure about this but you are right, it was a bit suspicious of that sudden incident to happen. So thanks for catching on and sharing this to everyone.
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Scratch xelin off the, hasn't posted alot yet, he just posted that wall of text
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Philadelphia, PA10406 Posts
On January 21 2010 10:48 SagaZ wrote:Show nested quote +On January 21 2010 10:00 ShoCkeyy wrote:On January 21 2010 09:52 QuickStriker wrote:
Well no one really can admit they're DT UNLESS they're looking for a death wish. I mean if the DT steps up and admit to himself he's the DT, what do you think will happen? The mafias will auto-target that person and before we know the results of the role check or clue check, he's dead. Bam, gg. So obviously whoever is DT is hidden and cannot reveal as the DT but must act as part of the crowd, as the regular ordinary townie citizen.
That being said, I think the best case for the people running for positions is to state who they do wish to use their first lynch one as that the most important case right now.
Now, I want to move back to the DT matter and note that for DT, there are only 2 role checks you can do and UNLIMITED clue checks. If you look at the rules, that's what it said with explanation. To maximize and help the DT, I gave some suggestions back in previous pages on how to take onto this matter but I'll repeat again in a simple short manner. For the first night, I recommend the DTs to get one post that sums up all clues, have that post checked using "clue check" rather than role check wasting the precious limited uses you can for that. They must suggest and lead the way to the town in which direction this game must go to, and have evidence and reason without revealing you are a DT to everyone, or else you're dead. It's like in the anime deathnote. If Kira sees you, you're going to get written on the notebook and bam. GG. So be wary of that. This is why I have voted for you. I like that you're already trying to help us newcomers and win the game. If you were to be a mafia, you wouldn't be doing this. Back to lynching XeliN Notice he hasn't posted since I called him out! okay, this is quite an interesting post actually. QS make this post about why should detective stay hidden, it's well explained but it's all comon sense and the conclusions are what anyone should see with a minimal thought process. detective and medics stay hidden to the mafia blablabla. Everything is nice and helps newer player in the case they haven't seen it. Now comes shockeey's post, basically saying how great QS is for saying what should be common sense. That makes me think about three case senarios. 1) QS and shockeey are mafia, they set up behind the scene the act. This goes well with QS's post activity to make people trust him, the intent of this tutorial would then be to try to earn some trust of newer players. Shockeey's post would only be to reinforce this and creat a bandwagon. 2) Shockeey is mafia, QS isn't. Shockeey, seing how QS posts alot wants to try to get in his good side and possibly misslead him. if someone says good things about you, it's harder to say bad things about them. 3) Neither are mafia, Shockeey just didn't saw how blue roles in general should play on his own and is impressed at how a mafia game works. These maybe are very far away from truth of course. About the first lynch, right now, killing the most inactive seems the safest choice, but maybe we could play around with the idea of killing shockeey.
You're overthinking yourself.
And by that, I don't mean that what you say is all wrong. For all I know, the most elaborate option;
#1 could be totally correct.
But what I mean is that this conjecture doesn't really help anyone. Because you've essentially presented three (of four) options and said that they're all equally likely. But option #4 is just as likely;
#4- QS is mafia, pretending to be a helpful guy, and shockeey is just deceived.
So your post doesn't really help us, because it serves to read something into a post that didn't need to be read into.
Just to head off any criticism, I broke down a post in a vacuum earlier (Page 8) but I tried not to steer away from conclusions. I wasn't analyzing the writing to make a judgment one way or another, I was simply trying to point out arguments that should not sway you.
+ Show Spoiler +On January 21 2010 10:46 Fulgrim wrote:
Ok this is kind of sad, I read the last few pages that I missed and it seemed like the same 4 people were posting for like the whole day.... Where is everyone else? (this could cause major problems, imagine if half of our game was modkilled...) Quick, d3 and tree, you guys have all been posting a ton, and I'm having trouble deciding who to vote for, have you guys all played before? Summer camp!
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As to the post above, I personally believe that the Mafia will not have planned to simply put one person forward, It would be extremely risky, and an exceptional gamble to do so. I am leaning more towards a "swamp" strategy wereby the mafia would but 3 or possibly more candidtaes forward in the hope that either way they get someone elected.
Unless you can provide a better argument as to why the Mafia would only put one person forward for election I am inclined to think they are far more likely to put many people forward to be elected.
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Blah, I forgot to consider that option as well. Where I could be mafia and I am deceiving shockeey.... haha.
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EPT
